Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Gilrandir]

A lot of people in the central Ukraine are divided on how to address the protesters.

The source, please.

[Gilrandir]

The worse the protesters are presented, the more freedom they get to deal with them violently instead of addressing their issues.

Let's imagine a group of armed men in camouflage professionally storm a police station in the UK, the USA, Germany, Serbia, Israel or (especially) Russia and get hold of all the weapons in the arsenal. What would the governments of those countries do and would they term these men otherwise than terrorists?

[Gilrandir]

Interview with several soldiers who were involved in beating back the protesters at Mariupol. It may be indicative of the mindset of Ukrainian soldiers.

Can't open the link.

[Shaka_Khan]

@ Gilrandir,

You're very fluent in English. Are you an expatriate living in Ukraine, or are you a Ukrainian living abroad? When I went to Kiev, a lot of the Ukrainians could speak English, some fluently, others not. Are you one of them?

[Husar]

Annexing a part of another country's territory is not a valid reason to blame Russia?

No, Russia was forced by the invisible hand of the market, but that's not even what I was talking about because Russia didn't annex Crimea a long time ago. Although if they did, we'd just have to let history be history and not blame them for things they did long ago. I think after roughly 10 years countries can't be blamed anymore.

[Gilrandir]

Do you live in Ukraine?

I do.

The news over here said that most of the Ukrainians are certain that Russia would invade. What do you think?

The feeling of imminent threat was acute 2-3 weeks ago, now it has grown numb -perhaps some people have got used to living under stressful conditions, others still can't credit it might happen with all the Russian rhetoric of love for a brotherly nation and a long tradition of never considering Russia as an enemy. The overwhelming majority of people I communicate to (including those who voted for the Party of Regions and even worked in its local electoral headquarters) are shocked by what Russia has done and is still doing. I expect similar feeling would Canadians have if during the turmoils of Quebec referendum (which were of course not so serious) the USA intervened and bit away, say, Nova Scotia and kept an invasion force all along the border. Yet, the patriotic sentiment is growing apace (which I admit I never thought my fellow countrymen capable of) and very surprising for me is patriotism displayed in what has so far been considered a pro-Russian part of the country - Kherson, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhya, and most astonishingly - Kharkiv and Odessa.
All this fills me with hope that Ukraine will preserve its integrity.

Would it be safe for a Russian to speak in Russian in the regions that are predominantly Ukrainian, especiallly with all these tensions going on? What if a tourist spoke Russian in a city like Kiev?

I can assure you, you can freely speak any language in any part of Ukraine (except Ukrainian in Donetsk and Lugansk regions which, as well as openly expressing pro-Ukrainian views, is reported to be unsafe now). The problem is most locals won't understand you unless you speak Ukrainian or Russian.
As for Kyiv, it is predominantly a Russian-speaking city, so speaking Russian there you would sound like a local. A TV journalist conducted an experiment a month ago: he went around restaurants and museums speaking Russian with the Moscow accent (which is rumored to cause immediate antipathy), sported his Russian passport and a scarf of a Russian football club most hated in Kyiv (as the legend goes); he even tried to start a row complaining that a restaurant didn't have a menu printed in Russian. During this tour he was being filmed by a hidden camera. AT NO PLACE was he treated without due respect and he never got "an attitude" he was provoking. Even after the row in the restaurant he was calmly explained that it was Ukraine so the menu must be in Ukrainian and told not to start a to-do otherwise he would be escorted off the premises.

And do you think it would become too dangerous for a tourist to visit there in a few months? I visited Kiev a few years ago so I'm not afraid to go there again right now.

You answered your own question yourself. Even during the most violent clashes the imminent danger zone in Kiyv was the downtown area, in other districts life went on pretty much the same. My daughter went on a bus tour to Kyiv with her class on the 27 of December last year. It is quite safe to do it SO FAR, but who knows what the situation in Kyiv (and indeed in Ukraine) would be even in a week. I expect everything to calm down after the presidential elections which are likely to be over by the middle of June. Yet I would not advise you to go there around May 9, when Victory Day is celebrated and Pro-Russians may rally their supporters and try pull off something unpleasant.

[Husar]

Let's imagine a group of armed men in camouflage professionally storm a police station in the UK, the USA, Germany, Serbia, Israel or (especially) Russia and get hold of all the weapons in the arsenal. What would the governments of those countries do and would they term these men otherwise than terrorists?

What would people who throw molotov cocktails at policemen, storm the parliament and threaten family members of members of the parliament be termed in these countries?

[Gilrandir]

@ Gilrandir,

You're very fluent in English. Are you an expatriate living in Ukraine, or are you a Ukrainian living abroad? When I went to Kiev, a lot of the Ukrainians could speak English, some fluently, others not. Are you one of them?

I'm surprised that you found A LOT of Ukrainians who could speak English. Perhaps it was during Euro 2012 when many English-speaking volunteers were involved. But even if it was otherwise, there are more people who can speak English in Kiyv than in smaller cities and towns. The farther you get from big cities (especially Kyiv) the less likely you are to meet such people.
As for me, speaking English is what I get paid for - I teach it.

[Gilrandir]

No, Russia was forced by the invisible hand of the market, but that's not even what I was talking about because Russia didn't annex Crimea a long time ago. Although if they did, we'd just have to let history be history and not blame them for things they did long ago. I think after roughly 10 years countries can't be blamed anymore.

So do whatever you want and wait for ten years - everything will be forgotten and forgiven, right?

[Gilrandir]

What would people who throw molotov cocktails at policemen, storm the parliament and threaten family members of members of the parliament be termed in these countries?

You tell me. You are a German. I guess the same. But, to my mind, one must observe the difference of purposes: Maidan wanted to overthrow a corrupt government, protesters in the east want to cut off a part of the country. Yet I see that many people here are ready to fling violence charges at Maidan protesters and turn a blind eye on (or even justify) similar things done in Eastern Ukraine now.

[Sarmatian]

Let's imagine a group of armed men in camouflage professionally storm a police station in the UK, the USA, Germany, Serbia, Israel or (especially) Russia and get hold of all the weapons in the arsenal. What would the governments of those countries do and would they term these men otherwise than terrorists?

I don't know, but that's exactly what protesters in Lviv and Kiev were doing. So, whatever do you think would have been acceptable then is acceptable now.

Can't open the link.

Sorry, wrong link. Here it is.

[Shaka_Khan]

I'm surprised that you found A LOT of Ukrainians who could speak English. Perhaps it was during Euro 2012 when many English-speaking volunteers were involved. But even if it was otherwise, there are more people who can speak English in Kiyv than in smaller cities and towns. The farther you get from big cities (especially Kyiv) the less likely you are to meet such people.
As for me, speaking English is what I get paid for - I teach it.

The people whom I talked to were mainly people who dealt with tourists such as the hotel desk clerk, the taxi drivers and the store clerks at the department store. One of the border guards at a train station near Poland was quite fluent too. She asked me why I was taking pictures of the train station saying that it was a military building. I told her that it was for facebook (partly because I was scared out of my wits, going out of my mind, and I didn't know what else to say. Another reason was because she was smiling in a friendly manner and I felt attracted to her and wanted to be friends on facebook.....) She made me erase the photos.

[Gilrandir]

I don't know, but that's exactly what protesters in Lviv and Kiev were doing. So, whatever do you think would have been acceptable then is acceptable now.

Those in Kyiv and Lviv were an angry mob, not what we see in Slovyansk and other Donetsk region cities. Organized platoons of professionally acting soldiers. Don't the latter remind you of the green men in Crimea? The article you linked to seems to hold a similar opinion of those men.

[Gilrandir]

The people whom I talked to were mainly people who dealt with tourists such as the hotel desk clerk, the taxi drivers and the store clerks at the department store. One of the border guards at a train station near Poland was quite fluent too. She asked me why I was taking pictures of the train station saying that it was a military building. I told her that it was for facebook (partly because I was scared out of my wits, going out of my mind, and I didn't know what else to say. Another reason was because she was smiling in a friendly manner and I felt attracted to her and wanted to be friends on facebook.....) She made me erase the photos.

Such people as you describe know English more or less - but again, they are paid to do that. The proficiency in English of those whose job does not require it is usually very poor.

[Husar]

So do whatever you want and wait for ten years - everything will be forgotten and forgiven, right?

Exactly, that's why I can't blame the US for Iraq anymore after all. It's in the past, doesn't matter anymore.

You tell me. You are a German. I guess the same. But, to my mind, one must observe the difference of purposes: Maidan wanted to overthrow a corrupt government, protesters in the east want to cut off a part of the country. Yet I see that many people here are ready to fling violence charges at Maidan protesters and turn a blind eye on (or even justify) similar things done in Eastern Ukraine now.

Maidan wanted to overthrow a corrupt, democratically elected President and the protesters in the east want to loosen themselves from a corrupt, unelected interim government that does not represent them, overthrew their elected president by throwing molotov cocktails at people and threatening members of parliament and then changed the county's course 180° without actual electoral backing.

As for turning a blind eye now, let's talk about who started this destabilization of the entire country and basically set a precedent for just taking what you want against the other half of the country.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

And painting protesters as anti-Semitic, racist bigots suits Kiev more. Don't forget that they, in addition to international propaganda battle, are also waging a domestic propaganda battle. A lot of people in the east is still divided on what to do. A lot of people in the central Ukraine are divided on how to address the protesters.

The worse the protesters are presented, the more freedom they get to deal with them violently instead of addressing their issues.

The conduct of the Ukrainian military, the exemplary conduct I should say, in Crimea indicates that Kiev knows it can't win a fist fight with the bear. With that in mind, it does not appear likely that provoking the protestors in the East serves their goal. Indeed, thus far it has been Russia (see Crimea) who has been escalating tensions as an excuse to deploy troops. Putin has already referred to his "right" to send troops into Ukraine - a right that was granted by the Russian Parliament. The implication being, of course, that Russia has a natural right to intervene directly in Ukraine.

And we know that US does all that and more, UK also (only on the much smaller scale). If we're basing our judgement on that USA could be responsible just as well.

I don't believe the US or UK has the means, will, or idealogical framework to embed agents in a country as natives for a matter of decades.

The anti-whatever views are more easily associated with Kiev. Don't forget that 5 ministerial positions, in addition to various other important state functions, in the Maidan government is held by what is effectively a nazi party and that only violent incident (actually two incidents) involving Jews happened in Kiev, prompting one of the chief Rabbis in Ukraine to urge Jews to leave Kiev and, possibly even the country, to be on the safe side.

As opposed to people who are explicitly RUSSIAN NATIONALISTS in a region in open revolt? Come on, it's as least as likely to be local bigots as Kiev - more likely given that Kiev has lost control of the region. Putin has appealed to the ethnic Russian population - that makes non-ethnic Russian suspect - and nobody's more suspect than the Jews.

There were only about 200 or so of them distributed in a very short time by three men and then they disappeared. The men as well as pamphlets.

And these are more likely to be locals from the region supporting Kiev than FSB agents?

[Gilrandir]

As for turning a blind eye now, let's talk about who started this destabilization of the entire country and basically set a precedent for just taking what you want against the other half of the country.

As I have repeatedly shown (and the developments in South-Eastern regions bear my ruminations out), there is no other HALF of the country. The majority of people and business elites all over Ukraine have acknowledged the new government and are ready to cooperate with it and pin hopes on it leading us out of the dead end Yanukovych has brought us to. In my view, it is he who started the destabilization you are talking about by proclaiming a course towards association with the EU (which noboby expected him to at first and nobody believed him to see it through), then backing out so provoking Maidan to gather and so on.
It is true that in Donetsk and Lugansk regions many people are distrustful of the new government but they are equally disillusioned in the Party of Regions and Yanukovych who, as they claim, betrayed them. This sentiment is actively propelled (and assisted both in arms and men) by Russia. Still, there are as many (and perhaps even more) people there who don't want any federalization, still less separation from Ukraine. But they are mostly scared or passive and rely on the central government to solve the problem.
So while a month ago what you said was true, there are no halves now.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Exactly, that's why I can't blame the US for Iraq anymore after all. It's in the past, doesn't matter anymore.



Maidan wanted to overthrow a corrupt, democratically elected President and the protesters in the east want to loosen themselves from a corrupt, unelected interim government that does not represent them, overthrew their elected president by throwing molotov cocktails at people and threatening members of parliament and then changed the county's course 180° without actual electoral backing.

As for turning a blind eye now, let's talk about who started this destabilization of the entire country and basically set a precedent for just taking what you want against the other half of the country.

The situations are not equivalent - the current situation in the East will prevent an effective Presidential Poll, which is what the Interim Government was aiming for - a new democratic mandate. you've also conveniently ignored the timeline - that the ACTIONS of the current Interim Government have dictated by Russian aggression. It's unlikely they would have signed that agreement with the EU, or that the EU would have agreed, otherwise.

[Sarmatian]

The conduct of the Ukrainian military, the exemplary conduct I should say, in Crimea indicates that Kiev knows it can't win a fist fight with the bear. With that in mind, it does not appear likely that provoking the protestors in the East serves their goal. Indeed, thus far it has been Russia (see Crimea) who has been escalating tensions as an excuse to deploy troops. Putin has already referred to his "right" to send troops into Ukraine - a right that was granted by the Russian Parliament. The implication being, of course, that Russia has a natural right to intervene directly in Ukraine.

So, what you're telling me is that Kiev has no interest in discrediting the protesters? Am I reading it right?

As opposed to people who are explicitly RUSSIAN NATIONALISTS in a region in open revolt? Come on, it's as least as likely to be local bigots as Kiev - more likely given that Kiev has lost control of the region. Putin has appealed to the ethnic Russian population - that makes non-ethnic Russian suspect - and nobody's more suspect than the Jews.

Lviv was in open revolt. They stormed police stations, government buildings, military depots, armed themselves and proclaimed themselves independent until they get the government they want in Kiev.

If you're trying to argue that just because the protesters in the east involve Russian population, they are more likely to target Jews, that's not even worthy of a response.

And these are more likely to be locals from the region supporting Kiev than FSB agents?

Unless I see a proof that Baldrick is working in the FSB, I'll continue to think that they aren't so stupid to try to discredit eastern protesters.

It usually boils down to the question "who benefited?". Protesters in the east didn't, that's for sure. Therefore it is unlikely they did it. It is equally unlikely FSB did it, for the same reason.

Now, it is possible that a few idiots from either side thought it was a good idea (or they could've been totally uninvolved), I agree, but it doesn't seem likely.

Three masked men, appearing suddenly, distributing 200 official looking leaflets very quickly and disappearing without a trace, does point to something a little better organised than three skinheads in a basement with a printer.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

So, what you're telling me is that Kiev has no interest in discrediting the protesters? Am I reading it right?

No interest in provoking the KGB Colonel who runs Russia, more like.

Lviv was in open revolt. They stormed police stations, government buildings, military depots, armed themselves and proclaimed themselves independent until they get the government they want in Kiev.

Yes - they're all terrible people there: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...t-9178968.html

Come back when Lviv ask Poland to annex them.

If you're trying to argue that just because the protesters in the east involve Russian population, they are more likely to target Jews, that's not even worthy of a response.

Errrrrrrr

Go back, re-read. I said Putin has used Russian ETHNIC nationalism as a dog-whistle to stir up unrest. By defining the Eastern issue as an ethnic one, he guarantees that the racists will be attracted to him.

Unless I see a proof that Baldrick is working in the FSB, I'll continue to think that they aren't so stupid to try to discredit eastern protesters.

It usually boils down to the question "who benefited?". Protesters in the east didn't, that's for sure. Therefore it is unlikely they did it. It is equally unlikely FSB did it, for the same reason.

Quo Vadis?

OK - who benefits from the collapse of the Geneva deal?

Putin and his military.

I refer you to the "Little Green Men" in Crimea - it doesn't matter if everyone works out it's the FSB, so long as Putin can claim Ukrainians are Fascists and invade.

Now, it is possible that a few idiots from either side thought it was a good idea (or they could've been totally uninvolved), I agree, but it doesn't seem likely.

Three masked men, appearing suddenly, distributing 200 official looking leaflets very quickly and disappearing without a trace, does point to something a little better organised than three skinheads in a basement with a printer.

And Ukraine can't organise a daisy-up from inside a Vodka distillery flooded with Vodka right now. That's because, you know, the INTERIM government is trying to to become permanent and thence get themselves shot.

Which leaves the FSB.

Since Crimea Putin has been operating a sort of Brute Force diplomacy, the minimum amount of effort for the thinnest pretext to act.

[Sarmatian]

No interest in provoking the KGB Colonel who runs Russia, more like.

Unless you're willing to argue it was FSB who organized and sent Ukrainian army which took the airfield and tried retake control by force, you don't have much of a case. Obviously, they did much more, and leaflets are generally a "safe" way of discrediting the protesters. Just your normal, everyday propaganda, which Kiev didn't shy away from since day 1.

What are you talking about.

Yes - they're all terrible people there: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...t-9178968.html

Come back when Lviv ask Poland to annex them.

I don't know about their morals and I don't feel the need to guess.

Errrrrrrr

Go back, re-read. I said Putin has used Russian ETHNIC nationalism as a dog-whistle to stir up unrest. By defining the Eastern issue as an ethnic one, he guarantees that the racists will be attracted to him.

Quite a leap there. So far, there has been no problems, either in Crimea or in Donetsk region, despite "evidence". When it comes to playing on the ethnic card, Maidan government/protesters are way ahead of Russia.

Quo Vadis?

OK - who benefits from the collapse of the Geneva deal?

Putin and his military.

I refer you to the "Little Green Men" in Crimea - it doesn't matter if everyone works out it's the FSB, so long as Putin can claim Ukrainians are Fascists and invade.

And in order to achieve that, he had leaflets that present eastern protesters as nazis printed and distributed? Let's try a new game - say it out loud before you write it.

And Ukraine can't organise a daisy-up from inside a Vodka distillery flooded with Vodka right now. That's because, you know, the INTERIM government is trying to to become permanent and thence get themselves shot.

Which leaves the FSB.

Since Crimea Putin has been operating a sort of Brute Force diplomacy, the minimum amount of effort for the thinnest pretext to act.

I'm amazed through what kind of mental workout you must be going through to spin things in such a way.

[Beskar]

I have to be honest, Sarmatian. I was thinking today about you when I remembered you lived in Serbia and your views on this matter. Serbia, being the inheritors of Yugoslavia, you might have some opinions and views about ethics and piecemealing, both from the formation of that country and its dissolution and the role of foreign powers 'meddling' in affairs.

If you have the time and interest to indulge me. Could you illustrate some of your personal feelings involved in the Ukraine situation with how things have occurred back at home, perhaps any lessons learnt from those experiences which might be helpful in frameworking this situation under a different light which being from a rather unique situation to the rest of the board, you may have knowledge of.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Lol this dude is such a stereotype. Invade a country? Mint a new coin!

'Putin coins' mark Crimea annexation http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news...where-27117241

I believe he would prefer the label "classic."

Calling him a stereotype is only one step short of "cliché."

[Pannonian]

I have to be honest, Sarmatian. I was thinking today about you when I remembered you lived in Serbia and your views on this matter. Serbia, being the inheritors of Yugoslavia, you might have some opinions and views about ethics and piecemealing, both from the formation of that country and its dissolution and the role of foreign powers 'meddling' in affairs.

If you have the time and interest to indulge me. Could you illustrate some of your personal feelings involved in the Ukraine situation with how things have occurred back at home, perhaps any lessons learnt from those experiences which might be helpful in frameworking this situation under a different light which being from a rather unique situation to the rest of the board, you may have knowledge of.

He's already pointed out that the pro-western uprising was a great deal less spontaneous than some would have us believe, with leaflets detailing standard protester uniforms that are identical to those supplied to him in the anti-Milosevic demos back in the day.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Quite a leap there. So far, there has been no problems, either in Crimea or in Donetsk region, despite "evidence". When it comes to playing on the ethnic card, Maidan government/protesters are way ahead of Russia.

Except the leader of the Tartars being banned from Crimea for 5 years...

And in order to achieve that, he had leaflets that present eastern protesters as nazis printed and distributed? Let's try a new game - say it out loud before you write it.

Leaflets now being derided as obviously fake - and apparently bolstering the Russian position.

I dunno, maybe I'm giving Putin too much credit.

I'm amazed through what kind of mental workout you must be going through to spin things in such a way.

Should have read "trying to not become permanent...

I must get a new keyboard that has the letters printed on it...

Anyway.

[Beskar]

He's already pointed out that the pro-western uprising was a great deal less spontaneous than some would have us believe, with leaflets detailing standard protester uniforms that are identical to those supplied to him in the anti-Milosevic demos back in the day.

He showed a picture comparing posters between Kviv and those in the Egyptian uprising.

I don't believe he has touched much on home-issues in the thread, and was wondering if he had any in depth thoughts on them if he is willing to share as I had some intellectual curiosity. If Sarmatian has already done so, would appreciate a redirection to that posting or so.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27118875

There it goes - local politician murdered.

[Shaka_Khan]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27118875

There it goes - local politician murdered.

That's a very conspicuous hat that the pro-Russian soldier is wearing.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

That's a very conspicuous hat that the pro-Russian soldier is wearing.

The Grenadier Guard will advance. Fo--WAHD!

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

That's a very conspicuous hat that the pro-Russian soldier is wearing.

It is - it's also the same guy - you can tell by the camo pattern on his gear. Whether it's the same guy as in the group pose photo - I'm not certain, but it may well be. At least - he appears to have all-modern Russian gear and be highly mobile.