Ukraine Thread

[Sarmatian]

In absolute terms, clearly they can and have.

But if you want to focus on relative terms - note that Russia wasn't coming from a very (economically) strong place itself (i.e. the 90s). The idea is that by now it has exhausted its potential for rapid, or possibly even sustained, growth.

Here are some links:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/forecast
http://www.inforum.umd.edu/papers/co...012_slides.pdf
http://www.oecd.org/berlin/50405107.pdf (Table 4.1 esp.)
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/wef-russia-...r-putin-427882
http://www.consiglioveneto.it/crvpor...AL_11_2012.pdf (Figure 9 and Annex Table

Note the low growth figures in GDP absolute and per capita, the shrinking working-age population, and the static allocation of industries in growth (i.e. lack of diversification). Obviously countries across the world will work toward closing the gap with China and the US, but in the above projections it seems the US will actually have slightly-larger long-term growth in GDP than Russia.


A much more important game for Russia than Ukrainian territory or whatever now (and in the long-term) is control of the Arctic Circle, which Canada, Norway, UK, Sweden, Japan, and of course the US are poised to compete in.

Growth projections have been slashed across the board, but all of your links except the first predict a good growth rate for Russia and always better than Eurozone.

The first is rather weird, but they predicted 0.25% growth for the last quarter while in reality it was 0.8%.

The fourth mentions "bleak outlooks" but the entire article consists of weasel words, without mentioning a single figure anywhere.

Russia has one huge obstacle to reach living standards of richest western nations, and that is diversification of its economy. Regardless how successful that reform is, economic growth in Asia and Africa will keep the price of resources and energy high for the foreseeable future, which means Russian economy is safe for the next several decades. If they manage to pull off a proper reform, living standards will most certainly reach western levels, and probably be ahead of almost all EU countries.

[Montmorency]

If they manage to pull off a proper reform, living standards will most certainly reach western levels, and probably be ahead of almost all EU countries.

Just to note that even if Russia turns away from Europe economically, it will still depend quite a bit on its performance via the world economy. Diaschisis is a useful concept.

Actually, that's one of the interesting things. Tangential to us right now, but the larger links above - as well as other similar sources - consistently predict that GDP per capita, and living standards more generally, will lag behind the Western peak by anywhere from 1/3-1/2 for countries like Russia and China, and 3/4 for countries like India and Brazil.

However, I do note that this is probably an overly-linear view of economic growth in our time, and that technological developments could upset these analyses both in and outside the West.

Look at microbanking in the developing world - after all, this is financial access based on widespread cell-phone usage that we're talking about!

TLDR, I don't like Russia's prospects on the (inter)national scale, but don't really trust any specific analysis past 2030. The links above were simply to demonstrate that there are indeed many pessimistic perspectives on Russian development.

[Gilrandir]

You're entitled to think that. It might even be true, but, even if it is true, the fact is that Kiev closed off all other options for them except direct military confrontation.
They can't be wooed back now.

Do you suggest Ukraine should pay pensions and salaries to the Crimea as well to woo it back? Own up to it: the moment the conflict grew into a military confrontation with Russia actively participating, it is not the separatists who decide on options. Russia is the one to stop it at any moment it wishes by withdrawing whatever military support it is giving and sealing the border against any penetrations both ways. Since Russia is not interested in it now and goads the separatists on and on I see no solution to the conflict except keeping the Lugandonians at bay beyond the existing frontlines.

In an interview with German ARD, Putin finally admits in no uncertain terms that his guys were out blocking Ukrainian military bases (12:39):

I know some people here on the forum who will again start looking for metaphors in Putin's words to deny the fact that he was lying back in spring when he said that Russian soldiers were not instrumental in occupying Crimea.
Moreover, in this interview Putin said that if some dissidents decide to fight they will find a way of getting weapons. He sounds like the separatists find weapons on their own without him being aware where they get them.

Russia has one huge obstacle to reach living standards of richest western nations, and that is diversification of its economy.

This obstacle is minor in comparison to corruption. Among the most recent cases, Sochi olympics were exemplary notorious for embezzlements and other financial abuses. 2018 World Cup is the one that is likely to surpass Sochi.

[Gilrandir]

People in DPR and LPR start to voice their dissatisfaction with the abscence of payments blaming separatists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SY0BoCyQTGs
In two cities (Sverdlovsk and Chervonopartizansk) local separatists declared that they obey neither LPR nor Novorossia. It seems that the occupied territories get more and more fractured, so there is no chance of wholesale negotiations, they will have to be dealt with piecemeal. There is also some evidence that local separatists address Ukrainian army at certain locations asking it to fire at their rivals (such anger is usually aimed at Chechens) and even disclosing the positions of the latter for the army to take aim.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

People in DPR and LPR start to voice their dissatisfaction with the abscence of payments blaming separatists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SY0BoCyQTGs
In two cities (Sverdlovsk and Chervonopartizansk) local separatists declared that they obey neither LPR nor Novorossia. It seems that the occupied territories get more and more fractured, so there is no chance of wholesale negotiations, they will have to be dealt with piecemeal. There is also some evidence that local separatists address Ukrainian army at certain locations asking it to fire at their rivals (such anger is usually aimed at Chechens) and even disclosing the positions of the latter for the army to take aim.

One of the things that happened in Afghanistan was that various tribes would tell the Americans that people from another tribe were "terrorists". In one instance two American patrols with local guides called down air strikes on each other.

As I said months ago, I'm sure there was a legitimate sense of grievance in these areas, but a few hardliners, probably with Russian support from the start, turned this into a war and dragged everyone else in.

[Kadagar_AV]

One of the things that happened in Afghanistan was that various tribes would tell the Americans that people from another tribe were "terrorists". In one instance two American patrols with local guides called down air strikes on each other.

As I said months ago, I'm sure there was a legitimate sense of grievance in these areas, but a few hardliners, probably with Russian support from the start, turned this into a war and dragged everyone else in.

Did I mention Putin is a great strategist?

Regardless, a source would be nice... :)

[Strike For The South]

It's November 20th and Validamir Putin is still a fascist.

[Kadagar_AV]

It's November 20th and Validamir Putin is still a fascist.

You kind of come off as having learnt a cool phrase from someone you looked up to, and then you just go on applying it every chance you have.