Ukraine Thread

[Gilrandir]

Putin will pitch like a teenage girl but if he wasn't supplying the rebels they're be out of spare parts and ammo now

And men and fuel.

Merkel will have assuaged German sensibilities on the issue and Obama will still be replaced in two years.

Two years is eternity for both Ukraine and Putin. As the precipitate winter offensive shows, Putin feels his time is running short or at least shorter than he had hoped for.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The Winter Offensive might just be the the Russians attacking early to get a jump on the Ukrainian Army, I confess I wasn't expecting the offensive to start until at least mid-February, more likely March.

[Gilrandir]

The Winter Offensive might just be the the Russians attacking early to get a jump on the Ukrainian Army, I confess I wasn't expecting the offensive to start until at least mid-February, more likely March.

Nobody was and Lugandoneans were not inclined to. Something happened that spurred them faster than they were supposed to. People here noticed that all their offensives started either on Ukrainian national holidays or before expected summits. Right now there are reports of DNR/Russia trying to cut off the Debaltsevo promontory. Ukrainians are on the offensive on the southern flank and some villages in the vicinity are reported to have been captured by Ukrainians.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

And men and fuel.


Two years is eternity for both Ukraine and Putin. As the precipitate winter offensive shows, Putin feels his time is running short or at least shorter than he had hoped for.

Putin is a chess player. Simply trying to consolidate the gain in the time frame he has left before his own people are fed up with affairs as they are. He won't go much further after this -- because he needs to consolidate, not because of much of what the West is doing.

[Gilrandir]

Putin is a chess player. Simply trying to consolidate the gain in the time frame he has left before his own people are fed up with affairs as they are.

His people are being successfully bombarded by his propaganda, so as far as I can judge (from what I see on Russian TV) they (well, the vast majority of them) don't blame him in anything. They still believe that it is the USA-Russia affair, so the USA (or broadly speaking the West) is guilty of it all as it ultimately aims to destroy Russia. Thus, they are to weather it and it can be done by tightening their belts and ranks around the leader. The saddest part of it all is that the two closely related peoples have now become enemies and even the lulling of the conflict is not likely to change this enmity in the foreseeable future.

He won't go much further after this -- because he needs to consolidate, not because of much of what the West is doing.

Yet, I believe, that if the West announces of lethal weapons being given to Ukraine it will bring about more aggressive warfare on Russia's part.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

His people are being successfully bombarded by his propaganda, so as far as I can judge (from what I see on Russian TV) they (well, the vast majority of them) don't blame him in anything. They still believe that it is the USA-Russia affair, so the USA (or broadly speaking the West) is guilty of it all as it ultimately aims to destroy Russia. Thus, they are to weather it and it can be done by tightening their belts and ranks around the leader. The saddest part of it all is that the two closely related peoples have now become enemies and even the lulling of the conflict is not likely to change this enmity in the foreseeable future.

Yet, I believe, that if the West announces of lethal weapons being given to Ukraine it will bring about more aggressive warfare on Russia's part.

That's my read on it too, broadly. However, I suspect Putin and company are smart enough to realize that propaganda only works for so long. I think he senses the moment passing and is simply trying to make the most of it before things shift and fervor begins to wane. More weapon systems to Ukraine would, short term, encourage them to up the pace of aggression for a bit so that they could consolidate before the new systems are deployed in any significant number.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

That's my read on it too, broadly. However, I suspect Putin and company are smart enough to realize that propaganda only works for so long. I think he senses the moment passing and is simply trying to make the most of it before things shift and fervor begins to wane. More weapon systems to Ukraine would, short term, encourage them to up the pace of aggression for a bit so that they could consolidate before the new systems are deployed in any significant number.

I think you're wrong - people keeps going on about Putin being this great strategist and a "chess player" but people forget that MOST politicians play Chess, I'm sure Obama does having been to Harvard, David Cameron certainly would having been to Eton and Oxford, Hollonde probably does too - Merkel might not I suppose.

Putin miss-judged badly when he tried to force Ukraine into his Customs Union and away from the EU, Ukraine is now actively seeking membership of NATO and is no longer unaligned. He also miss-calculated again with Crimea, he annexed the peninsula but the long term repercussions include having lost pretty much all his personal credibility and NATO reversing its collective defence cuts.

I think he's miss-calculating again, nobody has any hopes for the most recent round of peace talks because Putin has used previous rounds as nothing more than a stalling tactic. So the talks will happen, the rebels will step up their attacks and weapons and other material will flow into Ukraine from the US and then the rest of NATO. At that point Putin either has to give ground or commit Russian troops openly.

My reading of the situation is that he will commit Russian troops to "defend the people of Novarossoia" (sic). I base this conclusion on the fact that it's a viable option but not the one that looks logical from a Western perspective, so taking it follows Putin's established pattern.

[Gilrandir]

That's my read on it too, broadly. However, I suspect Putin and company are smart enough to realize that propaganda only works for so long.

Giving the swing of the propaganda and the money he is pumping into it I would say that it shows no sign of abating or even slackening. Sometimes it is so ridiculous that I can hardly believe that people buy it. For example, at a talk show broadcast on Russian TV (in the primetime on Sunday too) a man who claimed to have witnessed it personally said that elementary school teachers in Zaporizhya said to second-graders that they must feed finches during the winter cold since their color is blue and yellow, the colors of the Ukrainian flag, while the kids should not feed and even shoo away bull finches as their color suggest they are Russian birds.
And people at the talk show (and not only there) considered it a credible story!

My reading of the situation is that he will commit Russian troops to "defend the people of Novarossoia" (sic). I base this conclusion on the fact that it's a viable option but not the one that looks logical from a Western perspective, so taking it follows Putin's established pattern.

And if he does, what do you think the West would do? Cut Russia off from Swift?

[Papewaio]

Well the American Congress have actually done stupid things like this:

"On March 11, 2003 Republican U.S. Representatives Bob Ney and Walter B. Jones directed the three House cafeterias to change all references to French fries and French toast on menus, and replace them with Freedom fries and Freedom toast, respectively. Jones chose to follow Cubbie's example by circulating a letter to his colleagues advocating their renaming because, he said, "the French were 'sitting on the sidelines.'"[4][7] As Ney was Chairman of the United States House Committee on House Administration, the action did not require any vote, as the committee has authority over House cafeterias. According to a statement released by Ney, the renaming was intended to express displeasure with France's "continued refusal to stand with their U.S. allies". The statement further read: "This action today is a small but symbolic effort to show the strong displeasure many on Capitol Hill have with our so-called ally, France."[8] When asked about his view on the change, Jones said it was a "lighthearted gesture."[9]" - Wikipedia

So the talk show bird story looks credible when compared to the US Congress... not that that is a very high standard...

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Giving the swing of the propaganda and the money he is pumping into it I would say that it shows no sign of abating or even slackening. Sometimes it is so ridiculous that I can hardly believe that people buy it. For example, at a talk show broadcast on Russian TV (in the primetime on Sunday too) a man who claimed to have witnessed it personally said that elementary school teachers in Zaporizhya said to second-graders that they must feed finches during the winter cold since their color is blue and yellow, the colors of the Ukrainian flag, while the kids should not feed and even shoo away bull finches as their color suggest they are Russian birds.
And people at the talk show (and not only there) considered it a credible story!

And if he does, what do you think the West would do? Cut Russia off from Swift?

I am saying that Putin's current efforts will run up against economic hardships or the potential for significant casualties and he will either need to back off and consolidate a bit or take Russia to war. While he is playing off the sentiment of many Russians that they deserve their "place in the sun" and that other Western powers are denying them that opportunity (that has been a "chip on the shoulder' for Russian since Pytor), he knows that Russia lacks the wherewithal for a general war. As long as he can keep profiting from the current arrangement of events, he will do so. When the price escalates, he will become conciliatory -- but doesn't plan to hand anything back.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I think you're wrong - people keeps going on about Putin being this great strategist and a "chess player" but people forget that MOST politicians play Chess, I'm sure Obama does having been to Harvard, David Cameron certainly would having been to Eton and Oxford, Hollonde probably does too - Merkel might not I suppose.

Hmmm. I may be using the "chess player" analogy a bit differently. I am not saying that Putin has been mistake free. I am saying that he has a mind set where pressure and control of territory -- incremental gains -- are the objectives as opposed to sweeping results. By contrast, the USA has a strong poker player streak in us -- "all in" -- hoping for sweeping results from a policy or approach. THAT is what I mean by consolidation. He knows that going much further in ramping things up is likely to get too costly. He will keep the current situation running as long as it is generating results and the cost isn't ramped up. If that shifts, he will stop -- but not reverse -- these efforts.