Ukraine Thread

[Gilrandir]

Writ large, the Russian claim is based on Hungary and Czechoslovakia having been Soviet responses to "internal" dissent -- they had a right to squash them because they were REALLY just provinces -- and that the "province" of East Germany really still belongs to Russia as the inheritor of the Soviet Union.

Yet Hungary and Czechoslovakia were never officially accepted as members of the USSR, while DDR was made into a part of another country.

In short, this is just political theater.

... aimed to justify what Russia did with the Crimea using the kettle-pot approach.

[Gilrandir]

Perhaps, some will call it propaganda, yet the reason why I'm posting this one is to let people from outside Ukraine see one of the important factors keeping the Ukrainian army afloat.
http://mashable.com/2014/12/28/ukrai...eers-soldiers/
On Russian soldiers in Ukraine:
http://www.newsweek.com/2014/09/19/r...InQwA.facebook

[Viking]

Evidence has emerged of the NATO legion in Ukraine that Putin spoke of. I think even Husar will have to accept this level of evidence.

[Husar]

I don't need to accept anything, I've been saying this the whole time.

Small language warning.

[Strike For The South]

It is January 31st, 2015 and Putin is still a fascist.

[Husar]

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/0...to-stop-putin/

First, has any debate ever been improved by comparisons to Hitler? It’s the one type of name-calling certain to drive people crazy. We see that happening in Ukraine. The debate about who is a fascist has been part of the political hysteria that may eventually make that country ungovernable.

A second reason to be sparing with the F-bomb is more subtle. The label makes us think we’re talking about politicians and political movements ready for Armageddon. Fascists love throwing themselves on funeral pyres—they seem impossible to deter by ordinary means. But that’s not Mr. Putin (and my guess is it’s not Narendra Modi, the likely new Indian prime minister, either). Mr. Putin often miscalculates–but he does calculate.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...329348214.html

Among the "Ten handy phrases for bluffing your way through a conversation about the situation in Ukraine", the British Spectator magazine suggested rather sardonically: "The similarities with Hitler and the Sudetenland/Anschluss/Peter the Great/Stalin and the Tartars/Genghis Khan are striking."
The article makes it clear that "Historical analogies are invaluable to the experienced bluffer, but the amateur must tread carefully."
It follows, "When in doubt, hedge: 'I am not saying that Putin is Hitler, but …' or 'It’s easy to get carried away with these comparisons, but...' Try to look pained, as if contemplating both the complexity and the imminent possibility of human suffering."

[Gilrandir]

It is January 31st, 2015 and Putin is still a fascist.

Every now and then every company changes its slogans and very often they (slogans) kind of echo the previous one. In view of this and the fact that the above one is like a year old and recent developments in Donbas I suggest we update it. What about "It is whatever date and Putin gets fascister than ever"? Yet I don't insist on this one and open for any ideas.
And another kind of update:
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukr...ltseve-n296841

[GenosseGeneral]

I think we are in a highly critical stage right now which might lead to a further escalation on both national and global level.
According to Kuchma, in Minsk the Separatists threatened to begin a full-scale military attack, if their demand for a one-sided ceasefire by the Ukrainian side is not met. At the same time, they have substantially increased the military pressure. There have been intensive fights yesterday, the Ukranian forces have lost ground, so it seems to be no empty threat. However, their demands are unacceptable to the Ukrainian side. So if the separatists do not chicken out and indeed take that violent outside option, we will be back to the July-August intensity of warfare.
On a global level, the attack on Mariupol has raised concerns in the West, opening a timeframe for a decision towards harsher sanctions against Russia. As we all know, the EU usually needs some time to agree on sanctions, yet currently there are plans on the table. This is due to the attack on Mariupol last week. Meanwhile, even Medvedev threatened "unlimited retaliation" for a next round of 'hard' economic sanctions (e.g. cutting Russia off from SWIFT).
http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/347...htabnoi-voinoi

[Gilrandir]

So if the separatists do not chicken out and indeed take that violent outside option, we will be back to the July-August intensity of warfare.

If we are then with a reversed momentum - it is the separatists who are now on the offensive.
And you link to an article in Russian - well, I know everything that's in it, while (most of) others can't read it. Yet thanks. If you are interesed in constant update of the events in Russian and Ukrainian (and some analytical thoughts, including those from Nemtsov and other Russians) I can recommend this site:
http://nv.ua/

[Gilrandir]

Now let Husar and Genosse General be ready to part with their hard-earned money:
http://itar-tass.com/en/russia/775042
And perhaps Brenus as well - after all he must pay something, Napoleon was a well-known arsonists.
And I dare not think what bill Mongolia will have to foot.
And one more read:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e3ace...#axzz3QfpftG7J

[Brenus]

"And perhaps Brenus as well - after all he must pay something, Napoleon was a well-known arsonists." And perhaps you should learn History: Most historians agreed that the Russians set fire to Moscow following the orders of Count Rospochin to deprive the Grande Armée of any shelter. Is it ignorance or deliberate lies? No, it is ignorance.

[Kralizec]

I have no idea, I was five at the time and we didn't learn about it at school. What kind of legal procedure could there be about it? Isn't it inherently a political thing? The previous government of the DDR left and didn't resist, what would lawyers argue about? Whether such a unification was fine according to the DDR's constitution?

The DDR had free elections at the end of its existence, after which the new Volkskammer voted to split the DDR into several smaller entities, which entered the BRD separately as new Länder. I suppose that the vote might have been contrary to the DDR's constitution, I have no idea.

[Husar]

The DDR had free elections at the end of its existence, after which the new Volkskammer voted to split the DDR into several smaller entities, which entered the BRD separately as new Länder. I suppose that the vote might have been contrary to the DDR's constitution, I have no idea.

The point is that it hardly matters whether it fit the DDR constitution as hardly anyone wanted to keep that anyway. The Russians retreated from there (IIRC they were paid a hefty sum of money for it), there was no resistance by the population that I'm aware of, quite the contrary in fact, and their representatives, however representative they actually were, voted in favor of it. Their top politicians left/fled the country and the army didn't resist either unless I missed that war entirely.
It's questionable whether anyone could actually have a legitimate complaint given that there were none at the time it happened. Where would complaints come from? From the countries or people who watched it happen or agreed to it at the time?

I mean if another country says it was not agreeable enough as an event the way it happened, then I can probably find an argument for how that country should be disbanded based on its own disagreeable foundation. Most major countries I can think of have "integrated" people or geographical locations in far more violent ways, in the Germany case it was even a re-unification, basically just a return to a status that had previously existed instead of the addition of entirely new territory. Even a banana import restrictions reform leaves more ground for complaints than that.

[Gilrandir]

"And perhaps Brenus as well - after all he must pay something, Napoleon was a well-known arsonists." And perhaps you should learn History: Most historians agreed that the Russians set fire to Moscow following the orders of Count Rospochin to deprive the Grande Armée of any shelter. Is it ignorance or deliberate lies? No, it is ignorance.

It is neither. However, since you don't believe me anyway, you can believe it is both.
In fact, you are as bad at detecting irony as I am.
Yet if you adopt an edifying attitude, you should have at least taken pains to get the names correct. It is Count Rostopchin. Is is ignorance or deliberate lies? No, it is

The point is that it hardly matters whether it fit the DDR constitution as hardly anyone wanted to keep that anyway.

It's questionable whether anyone could actually have a legitimate complaint given that there were none at the time it happened.

... in the Germany case it was even a re-unification, basically just a return to a status that had previously existed instead of the addition of entirely new territory.

The problem is that very similar arguments are put forward by Russia trying to justify the annexation of Crimea. Replace "Germany" with "Russia" and "DDR" with "Crimea" and you can debate with yourself to your heart's content.


Gathering of clouds?
http://www.interpretermag.com/moscow...ne-golts-says/

[Brenus]

"Is is ignorance or deliberate lies? No, it is" No, just simple spelling mistake due a different alphabet. As usual, you lack of knowledge. Does it change the reality of your claim based on ignorance? No.

[Gilrandir]

Does it change the reality of your claim based on ignorance? No.

Believe me or not, at school and at University I studied the subject called "The history of the USSR", so I am well aware of the fact you refer to. You again fail to see that it wasn't a "claim based on ignorance" (and my awareness of the correct name of the 1812 arsonist is a proof), but a sarcastic remark aimed at showing stupidity of the claim forwarded by Russian Duma. Husar's posts are full of sarcasm, somehow you never accuse him of ignorance or other sins. Yet you go on spouting vitriol only at me following the logics: "If he doesn't understand something - he lacks brains, if he (as I believe) doesn't know something - he is know-nothing, if he expresses a different view of things - he is an obsurantist nazi". If France is full with the likes of you, I don't wonder you will have other Charlie Hebdo style accidents.
And speaking of nazis:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine...s-rebel-chief/
Any crying foul on how nazism flourishes in DNR?

[Brenus]

“and my awareness of the correct name of the 1812 arsonist is a proof)” Nope, that is an “proof” that you know to use research engine….

“you go on spouting vitriol only at me following the logics: "If he doesn't understand something - lacks brains, if he (as I believe) doesn't know something - he is know-nothing, if he expresses a different view of things - he is an obsurantist nazi".” Can I remind you who start this? By the way, obscurantist and Nazi is a pleonasm.

“If France is full with the likes of you, I don't wonder you will have other Charlie Hebdo style accidents.” Thanks. You just confirm my judgement on your opinion and judgment capacities. The murdered ones deserved what happened to them… Was not an accident, it was a deliberate attack by obscurantist Muslim Fanatics. Not it matters for you, apparently.

“Any crying foul on how nazism flourishes in DNR?” Nope. Russians are known for anti-Semitism, I think the word pogrom comes for here. Wearing Nazi uniform is just a step forward that Ukrainian did. From you previous appreciation, I though you would call them extreme-nationalists. I am not sure of for classification, but it was something like this.

Ok, we clarified the burning of Moscow, I will go back to my indifference for this thread you awake me from, in putting my avatar’s name in.

[Viking]

The German and French leaders are starting to feel like they've had enough with Putin's unreliability.

[Gilrandir]

“and my awareness of the correct name of the 1812 arsonist is a proof)” Nope, that is an “proof” that you know to use research engine….

So only you can really know something, others (especially those you don't like) only google it. What a conceit!

“If France is full with the likes of you, I don't wonder you will have other Charlie Hebdo style accidents.” Thanks. You just confirm my judgement on your opinion and judgment capacities. The murdered ones deserved what happened to them…

Again distortion. More than once I said I was sorry for the victims. I wanted others (since you apparently won't) to see that for modern France the choice is get polite or get armed. CH did neither. Now France seems to have opted for the latter. And it is good. If it can't grow decency, it has at least started growing some common sense (albeit at the cost of freedom and security measures expenses).

“Any crying foul on how nazism flourishes in DNR?” Nope. Russians are known for anti-Semitism, I think the word pogrom comes for here.

1. What a piece of generalized xenophobia! All Russians are? It is like claiming that the French are known for alcohol (notably wine) abuse.
2. Zakharchenko is not Russian. Although, he apparently doesn't consider himself Ukainian either.

Wearing Nazi uniform is just a step forward that Ukrainian did.

We have had a discussion on uniforms way back, so I won't enter a sequel of it. But if you think that wearing any uniform is much more terrible that hating other nations... But at least you NOW admit that nazis are in DNR (and at the head of the "state" too).

Ok, we clarified the burning of Moscow, I will go back to my indifference for this thread you awake me from, in putting my avatar’s name in.

Like I said, the burning of Moscow was clear to me at least in the 6th grade, but if you say so... Go back to sleep, sweet dreams and let no obscurantists/nazis enter them.
Meanwile for all you night walkers out there - a new interception by SBU.
http://espreso.tv/news/2015/02/07/pe...quot_z_donbasu
In it a Russian officer (nickname CHIEF), responsible for dealing with the killed in Donbas Russian military, upbraides an official of DPR for issuing death certificates which have Donetsk morgues' seals on them. He says that he has several hundreds of such certificates which create problems for him since his job is to conceal the cases. He insisits that the dead must not come in zincs and the death certificates must not mention Ukraine as the site of death. Such caskets should be sent only to a specific military unit's location where he will forge (sic!) the neccessary documents. He is very much vexed with the fact that undesirable death certificates appear from time to time in different Russian cities (he mentioned St. Petersburg and Krasnoyarsk). Cheif is also dissatisfied with the fact that journalists are prowling about Rostov sniffing out unpleasant truth which the families of the dead are likely to reveal to them for some remuneration.

[Gilrandir]

The German and French leaders are starting to feel like they've had enough with Putin's unreliability.

And Putin, perhaps, is showing the size of the gun he has at home... oops, the guns which are sold at supermarkets all over Russia.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Obama is now actively considering supplying arms to Ukraine: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31279621

Putin will pitch like a teenage girl but if he wasn't supplying the rebels they're be out of spare parts and ammo now, like the Ukrainian Army.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Obama is now actively considering supplying arms to Ukraine: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31279621

Putin will pitch like a teenage girl but if he wasn't supplying the rebels they're be out of spare parts and ammo now, like the Ukrainian Army.

It will happen, but will change little. Merkel will have assuaged German sensibilities on the issue and Obama will still be replaced in two years.

[Gilrandir]

Putin will pitch like a teenage girl but if he wasn't supplying the rebels they're be out of spare parts and ammo now

And men and fuel.

Merkel will have assuaged German sensibilities on the issue and Obama will still be replaced in two years.

Two years is eternity for both Ukraine and Putin. As the precipitate winter offensive shows, Putin feels his time is running short or at least shorter than he had hoped for.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The Winter Offensive might just be the the Russians attacking early to get a jump on the Ukrainian Army, I confess I wasn't expecting the offensive to start until at least mid-February, more likely March.

[Gilrandir]

The Winter Offensive might just be the the Russians attacking early to get a jump on the Ukrainian Army, I confess I wasn't expecting the offensive to start until at least mid-February, more likely March.

Nobody was and Lugandoneans were not inclined to. Something happened that spurred them faster than they were supposed to. People here noticed that all their offensives started either on Ukrainian national holidays or before expected summits. Right now there are reports of DNR/Russia trying to cut off the Debaltsevo promontory. Ukrainians are on the offensive on the southern flank and some villages in the vicinity are reported to have been captured by Ukrainians.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

And men and fuel.


Two years is eternity for both Ukraine and Putin. As the precipitate winter offensive shows, Putin feels his time is running short or at least shorter than he had hoped for.

Putin is a chess player. Simply trying to consolidate the gain in the time frame he has left before his own people are fed up with affairs as they are. He won't go much further after this -- because he needs to consolidate, not because of much of what the West is doing.

[Gilrandir]

Putin is a chess player. Simply trying to consolidate the gain in the time frame he has left before his own people are fed up with affairs as they are.

His people are being successfully bombarded by his propaganda, so as far as I can judge (from what I see on Russian TV) they (well, the vast majority of them) don't blame him in anything. They still believe that it is the USA-Russia affair, so the USA (or broadly speaking the West) is guilty of it all as it ultimately aims to destroy Russia. Thus, they are to weather it and it can be done by tightening their belts and ranks around the leader. The saddest part of it all is that the two closely related peoples have now become enemies and even the lulling of the conflict is not likely to change this enmity in the foreseeable future.

He won't go much further after this -- because he needs to consolidate, not because of much of what the West is doing.

Yet, I believe, that if the West announces of lethal weapons being given to Ukraine it will bring about more aggressive warfare on Russia's part.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

His people are being successfully bombarded by his propaganda, so as far as I can judge (from what I see on Russian TV) they (well, the vast majority of them) don't blame him in anything. They still believe that it is the USA-Russia affair, so the USA (or broadly speaking the West) is guilty of it all as it ultimately aims to destroy Russia. Thus, they are to weather it and it can be done by tightening their belts and ranks around the leader. The saddest part of it all is that the two closely related peoples have now become enemies and even the lulling of the conflict is not likely to change this enmity in the foreseeable future.

Yet, I believe, that if the West announces of lethal weapons being given to Ukraine it will bring about more aggressive warfare on Russia's part.

That's my read on it too, broadly. However, I suspect Putin and company are smart enough to realize that propaganda only works for so long. I think he senses the moment passing and is simply trying to make the most of it before things shift and fervor begins to wane. More weapon systems to Ukraine would, short term, encourage them to up the pace of aggression for a bit so that they could consolidate before the new systems are deployed in any significant number.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

That's my read on it too, broadly. However, I suspect Putin and company are smart enough to realize that propaganda only works for so long. I think he senses the moment passing and is simply trying to make the most of it before things shift and fervor begins to wane. More weapon systems to Ukraine would, short term, encourage them to up the pace of aggression for a bit so that they could consolidate before the new systems are deployed in any significant number.

I think you're wrong - people keeps going on about Putin being this great strategist and a "chess player" but people forget that MOST politicians play Chess, I'm sure Obama does having been to Harvard, David Cameron certainly would having been to Eton and Oxford, Hollonde probably does too - Merkel might not I suppose.

Putin miss-judged badly when he tried to force Ukraine into his Customs Union and away from the EU, Ukraine is now actively seeking membership of NATO and is no longer unaligned. He also miss-calculated again with Crimea, he annexed the peninsula but the long term repercussions include having lost pretty much all his personal credibility and NATO reversing its collective defence cuts.

I think he's miss-calculating again, nobody has any hopes for the most recent round of peace talks because Putin has used previous rounds as nothing more than a stalling tactic. So the talks will happen, the rebels will step up their attacks and weapons and other material will flow into Ukraine from the US and then the rest of NATO. At that point Putin either has to give ground or commit Russian troops openly.

My reading of the situation is that he will commit Russian troops to "defend the people of Novarossoia" (sic). I base this conclusion on the fact that it's a viable option but not the one that looks logical from a Western perspective, so taking it follows Putin's established pattern.

[Gilrandir]

That's my read on it too, broadly. However, I suspect Putin and company are smart enough to realize that propaganda only works for so long.

Giving the swing of the propaganda and the money he is pumping into it I would say that it shows no sign of abating or even slackening. Sometimes it is so ridiculous that I can hardly believe that people buy it. For example, at a talk show broadcast on Russian TV (in the primetime on Sunday too) a man who claimed to have witnessed it personally said that elementary school teachers in Zaporizhya said to second-graders that they must feed finches during the winter cold since their color is blue and yellow, the colors of the Ukrainian flag, while the kids should not feed and even shoo away bull finches as their color suggest they are Russian birds.
And people at the talk show (and not only there) considered it a credible story!

My reading of the situation is that he will commit Russian troops to "defend the people of Novarossoia" (sic). I base this conclusion on the fact that it's a viable option but not the one that looks logical from a Western perspective, so taking it follows Putin's established pattern.

And if he does, what do you think the West would do? Cut Russia off from Swift?