POTUS Election thread

[Viking]

Utah has how many electors? 6?

40. As I said, what's interesting here is where Rubio fans are going.

It's also interesting to note how almost a third of the voters will go for a candidate that cannot with the popular vote. I guess it shows how divisive both Cruz and Trump are.

[a completely inoffensive name]

40.

Nope

[Viking]

Oh, you're referring to the presidential election. Thing is, with a brokered convention; Trump might not even get that far (as a Republican candidate, anyway).

[a completely inoffensive name]

There is a good probability he won't get the nomination. But if he does, it's not a blow out like everyone says.

If he loses Utah, he will pick up other states worth a lot more by playing his card right.

[Husar]

https://scontent-fra3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...7a&oe=578B5D6C

[Greyblades]

I find it hard to believe that trump wining the republican primary is still in question.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

'blades:

Trump will arrive at the convention with the most delegates for a virtual certainty. However, there is a distinct possibility that he will be just short of the number required for nomination on the first ballot. If that first ballot fails to select a nominee, the large majority of delegates to the convention are then free to vote in favor of whomever they choose as nominee. It is not impossible for a person to be nominated even though they have not been campaigning for the Presidency at all. Current political pundits seem to think Paul Ryan would emerge as that "dark horse" and he would be persuaded to accept the nomination in much the same manner as he was persuaded to accept the Speakership.

[Husar]

'blades:

Trump will arrive at the convention with the most delegates for a virtual certainty. However, there is a distinct possibility that he will be just short of the number required for nomination on the first ballot. If that first ballot fails to select a nominee, the large majority of delegates to the convention are then free to vote in favor of whomever they choose as nominee. It is not impossible for a person to be nominated even though they have not been campaigning for the Presidency at all. Current political pundits seem to think Paul Ryan would emerge as that "dark horse" and he would be persuaded to accept the nomination in much the same manner as he was persuaded to accept the Speakership.

Yeah, that Paul Ryan thing is pretty strange:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I'd actually have been quite happen with a Ryan candidacy had he declared and run in the primaries. He's establishment enough to keep the party together; solidly conservative on the economic and foreign policy issues that matter to me; appropriately reluctant to legislate his morality for others on most issues; not so much of a purist that he would never make a reasonable deal solely because it involves working with the opposition; and is possessed of un-atrophied gray matter.

Selecting him out of the convention without a ground campaign in place is a LOT more problematic.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

How the Delegates are committed for the first ballot vote:

SOURCE

[Greyblades]

'blades:

Trump will arrive at the convention with the most delegates for a virtual certainty. However, there is a distinct possibility that he will be just short of the number required for nomination on the first ballot. If that first ballot fails to select a nominee, the large majority of delegates to the convention are then free to vote in favor of whomever they choose as nominee. It is not impossible for a person to be nominated even though they have not been campaigning for the Presidency at all. Current political pundits seem to think Paul Ryan would emerge as that "dark horse" and he would be persuaded to accept the nomination in much the same manner as he was persuaded to accept the Speakership.

I cannot say i would be happy to see that happen. It seems like denying the voters their choice.

Paul Ryan himself seems like a David Cameron; a conservative politician who is utterly unremarkable in himself but is both semi competent and inoffensive enough to allow a grudging cooperation with some of the opposition. If america was going to have a hold over president until someone better came along I think he would be a better choice than clinton, but go have it happen like this against the voters wishes will ruin it.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I cannot say i would be happy to see that happen. It seems like denying the voters their choice.

Paul Ryan himself seems like a David Cameron; a conservative politician who is utterly unremarkable in himself but is both semi competent and inoffensive enough to allow a grudging cooperation with some of the opposition. If america was going to have a hold over president until someone better came along I think he would be a better choice than clinton, but go have it happen like this against the voters wishes will ruin it.

Paul Ryan's personal story is reasonably laudable, and while staunchly conservative, he is not rabidly so. I actually would be quite happy, from what I know today, to cast a vote for him for President.

However, he has said that he has no desire to take up the nomination and you are VERY much correct that a notable slice of GOP voters will be very disaffected if the party sidesteps all those who ran for the office in favor of someone who was not part of the process to date.

[Viking]

So Kasich didn't really get one third of the vote in Utah, but he beat Trump there, alright.

According to current numbers, Sanders got 57 delegates to Clinton's 51, which won't cut it for the Bern in the long run (he needs to win more than 60% of the remaining delegates on average).

[Beskar]

Apparently this is doing a wave on Facebook -
http://theantimedia.org/wikileaks-dr...b-censored-it/

Probably something @Myth and @Fisherking are more familar with?

[Viking]

According to the NYT overview, there are 546 delegates up for grabs in California. Clinton's current lead is 303 delegates according to the same page. That would mean Sanders would only need 55.49% of the candidates in California in order to close the current gap between him and Clinton.

The latest poll shows Clinton being ahead in California by 7 percent (48-41), though; so it might not be realistic for him to pull that off.

Even so, Sanders might be able to narrow that gap significantly before California.

In sum, I'd say that it's way too early to assume that Clinton will win the nomination.

[Hooahguy]

Im pretty sure that I recall reading that he would need at least 60% of each remaining contest going forward to pull off the nomination.

[Viking]

Looks like NYT might have included superdelegates in the 546 count (475 without?), so then it is ~ 64%.

[Viking]

Calling Washington for Birdie Sanders with a big margin.

This could be a big day for Sanders.

[Lizardo]

Apparently this is doing a wave on Facebook -
http://theantimedia.org/wikileaks-dr...b-censored-it/

Probably something @Myth and @Fisherking are more familar with?

Yes theres an email in regards to Google Hillary and Al jazeera and Israel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ntSzLXRiW0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EorK3cWnPNQ

[Husar]

Seems like there is a new scandal developing: http://mic.com/articles/139052/berni...ial#.iWELFngi4

"I think the media is purposely trying to portray Bernie as a white person's candidate in order to stop his growing support in the black community," Brisport, a black actor and SAT prep tutor, said. "I helped register over 200 college students to vote in Brooklyn last week. Mostly black and Latino. Overwhelming in support of Sanders. C'mon."

The frustrated rallied together under the hashtag #BernieMadeMeWhite, wondering what about their vote suddenly turned them white.

http://usuncut.com/politics/berniema...-is-hilarious/

Two of the last three states Bernie Sanders won by landslide margins — Alaska and Hawaii — are also very ethnically diverse. One-third of Alaska’s population is Native American, Asian, Black, Pacific Islander, or of mixed race. And three-fourths of Hawaii’s population is made up of people of color, with nearly 50 percent being Asian.

Furthermore, Washington State ranks among the ten most ethnically diverse states in the country. But this didn’t stop cable media pundits from belittling Bernie Sanders’ victories by falsely claiming that the populations of those states are mostly white in order to justify the false narrative that the Vermont senator is unable to connect to nonwhite voters.

https://twitter.com/InternetPalace/s...rc=twsrc%5Etfw
This last image is intriguing, although I can't seem to access a higher resolution version to read what CNN actually wrote.

[Tuuvi]

It really annoys me that twitter doesn't let you upload larger size images. I took a US government class a couple of semesters ago and the professor told us that just 5 companies own most of the media outlets here. I imagine Bernie's policies run counter to corporate interests so I guess it's not surprising that the media would be biased against him.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Bernie Sanders is unlikely to secure the nomination, whereas all of the delegate numbers favor Clinton. Source

Assuming that Sanders gets all of the currently un-committed super-delegates, he would pick up another 210. He would still need to capture 1,172 of the remaining 1,833 delegates or 63.93%. So far, Sanders has only been able to manufacture delegate wins of that size in 3 states, 4 if you count New Hampshire. NONE of those wins came in a contest worth more than 35 delegates. In other words, the proportional primary process means that Sanders probably cannot win big enough to beat Clinton even if he wins all of the remaining contests because he will not win big enough to get to 64%.

His only real hope is to beat Clinton the rest of the way by 55% or so and then convince the currently committed to Clinton super-delegates to change their minds. This is possible, but strongly improbable.

[Sarmatian]

His only real hope is to beat Clinton the rest of the way by 55% or so and then convince the currently committed to Clinton super-delegates to change their minds. This is possible, but strongly improbable.

Indeed.

Nevertheless, he needs to keep the pressure on Clinton. He already forced her to the left on many issues. I never liked Clinton, and after watching her against Sanders, I think I'd despise her if I was an American democrat supporter.

She's the prototype career politician, not interested in anything but getting her butt in a chair. In fact, only person worthy of similar contempt is Donald Trump.

A question - how come it says there 101 delegate in Washington, but than it says Bernie 25 and Hillary 9? What happened with the rest?

[Hooahguy]

She's the prototype career politician, not interested in anything but getting her butt in a chair. In fact, only person worthy of similar contempt is Donald Trump.

So are all of them. Cruz is hated in the Senate because hes a classic political opportunist, such as the whole government shutdown. Kasich is still in the race because he thinks he has a shot at the convention, so its basically his ego talking. This is what politicians do. Even Sanders is the same way, its just a bit less apparent.

[Tuuvi]

[Sarmatian]

So are all of them. Cruz is hated in the Senate because hes a classic political opportunist, such as the whole government shutdown. Kasich is still in the race because he thinks he has a shot at the convention, so its basically his ego talking. This is what politicians do. Even Sanders is the same way, its just a bit less apparent.

I disagree. Trump and Clinton are in a separate league from the rest.

[Husar]

I'm only halfway through, but so far I like how he explains things. I'd say it's what I always said but then again I'm not as eloquent as he is and he has a few interesting perspectives on things. The trickle up of wealth is well-explained, as well as the need for constant growth that becomes so obvious in Japan. I am curious now what he will say about other systems and if he offers a solution. So far it was well-worth seeing, although I skipped his early explanations about where he works and who to thank or whatever he said.

[Hooahguy]

I disagree. Trump and Clinton are in a separate league from the rest.

Well considering that colleagues of Cruz openly said you could murder him on the floor of the Senate and nobody would testify that it happened means a lot. Not even Hillary is described that way. I think if you would dig a bit deeper into Cruz you would see what I mean.

Personally I think that Cruz is more dangerous than Trump. If one actually looks at what he proposes, hes making massive cuts to basically everything except the military, raise the sales tax while cutting the taxes of the wealthy, he really is a snake oil salesman that only got so far because of Trump taking up all the time in the media. He has embraced the endorsements of people who advocate the murder of gay people and people who say that the Jews in the Holocaust had it coming because they didnt convert to Christianity. Once people start looking closer at Cruz they will see that he is just as bad as Trump, if not worse.

[Strike For The South]

Cruz is the last person who should be near any sort of power.

[Sarmatian]

Don't get me wrong, Cruz is a mental case, I don't disagree. He only got as far because the republican primary was basically a reality show.

He doesn't have a chance. Either Trump gets it, or someone else entirely. Kasich has a better chance than Cruz in that case. Nevertheless, even Cruz appears more honest and straightforward than her.

As it is now, it appears that the next POTUS will be whoever wins democratic nomination, which means Hillary most likely, which means no change, just endless demagogy.