IKEA mafia [Concluded]

[GeneralHankerchief]

Start of the round, Barto gets the earlybird special vote on me.

Votes:

GH (1) - El Barto

El Barto (2) - Al Sips, atheotes

Not voting: Eldrick, Golden1Knight, Raith Kemmler, GH, edse, BSmith, Visor, Askthepizzaguy

edse wagon soon picks up, BSmith is yet to show up.

Votes:

GH (1) - El Barto

El Barto (2) - Al Sips, atheotes

edse (4) - Eldrick, Askthepizzaguy, GH, Golden1Knight

Visor (1) - edse

Not voting: Raith Kemmler, BSmith, Visor

At first glance, a scum has an easy vote on edse or Barto and can call it a day. But here's the thing though, the edse wagon stalled at this point. He softclaimed having a tracker role and named Visor as jht's attacker here:

I know, without a doubt, that Visor killed johnhughthom.

Any vote on edse afterwards would be suspicious as momentum was going the other way. Not entirely because it wasn't a hardclaim and we were still trying to get specifics, but piling on would stand out. I know as a mafioso I'm always trying to monitor the momentum of the thread, and I suspect I'm not the only one who does so. If BSmith is of a like mind he knows that the edse wagon has stopped, regardless of the vote count.

Anyway, the voting stops, and the questions start rolling in.

hmm...interesting. I do see the probability.
Are you saying Visor did not kill Punisher or are you saying Visor killed John?

Reasonable reaction from atheotes, trying to get clarification.

Hardclaim something or my vote stays where it is.

My reaction, a bit blunter than atheotes's but the core message is the same: I want more information.

Yep, hard claim vigilante or be lynched basically. Or hard claim bus driver, either way.

Once that happens, we lynch outside of the claims, and the bus driver does nothing.

Then, scum and vig likely shoot each other, saving us from having to make the 50/50 call.

Pizza's reaction, well in accord with the other two.

Discussion moves elsewhere for a bit, Pizza takes some heat for the AA vote the previous round. edse comes in and advances his theories but still doesn't hardclaim.

Votes:

GH (1) - El Barto

El Barto (3) - Al Sips, atheotes, Visor

edse (2) - GH, Golden1Knight

Visor (1) - edse

Askthepizzaguy (2) - Eldrick, Askthepizzaguy

Not voting: Raith Kemmler, BSmith

Still no BSmith. I'm not holding this against him but at this time the thread momentum is far more up in the air than where it was earlier in the round. edse's still got the most votes but Pizza's taking heat as well but not really because one of those was a self vote and etc etc etc. What's a mafioso to do?

Here we are:

I very much dislike role-fishing. vote: GH

Couple things wrong with this picture.

1) Singling one person out when multiple people did the action in question. This isn't a townie trying to have a discussion with people. This is a mafioso looking for an easy vote.
2) We're at the part of the game where clarity becomes paramount. I'm trying to solve. atheotes is trying to solve. Pizza's trying to solve. Sorting out edse's claim and attempting to determine which of him and Visor (who was still alive at this point) helps the town here.
3) The target. If BSmith is town, he gets the slightest of passes here for singling out the guy who was bluntest, but I think it's more likely that this was a calculated decision to try to get me lynched. atheotes isn't undergoing much suspicion at all. Pizza's got a couple of votes, but one of them was a self-vote and the other was because signals got crossed. Then there's me. Barto's in the lead, but he doesn't have an overwhelming majority yet and the momentum really hasn't been targeting him. Could be too early to bus. Could still be worth a shot to get something out of the round.

atheotes immediately calls BSmith out:

Seriously? that seems like a lazy vote at best. There are other people who have fished for the roles even more strongly...

As do I:

Yeah, really. I'm definitely rolefishing. It's called trying to solve the game.

Tally with three hours to go:

Votes:

GH (2) - El Barto, BSmith

El Barto (3) - Al Sips, atheotes, Visor

edse (2) - GH, Golden1Knight

Visor (1) - edse

Askthepizzaguy (2) - Eldrick, Askthepizzaguy

Not voting: Raith Kemmler



3 hours until DL

Golden switches from edse and that's the last vote move of the round. Barto is lynched.

~~~~~~~~~

SUMMATION:

1) Barto had a few early votes in the round but after that the momentum wasn't really on him, i.e. a mafioso could still think about potentially salvaging the situation, i.e. not really an optimal time to bus.

2) It was a weak momentum round in general besides the edse rush, which BSmith missed. At the one time BSmith posted in the round, there was negative momentum on edse, null to positive momentum on Barto, null on me, Visor, and atheotes. Slight positive on Pizza but you have to keep in mind the context behind his two votes. Optimal time to get a wagon going, if you play your cards right.

3) The votes on Barto were mostly results of the case on him from the previous round and thus not 100% fresh in the town's memory (this round was all about the edse/Visor argument).

4) If you can get a wagon going, I'm a decent enough target - the suspicion level on me has ranged from ALERT ALERT ALERT to low buzz pretty much all game.

5) If I'm BSmith, I roll those dice to try to score another town mislynch.

6) The execution of this strategy was poor for reasons discussed above.

Still not entirely 100% awake, feel free to correct me via context issues, etc.