Futuramafia [Concluded]

[Visor]

Vote: Stork for not making this a Haiku. 2-5-4? What kind of syllable pattern is that?

Crimson looks worse to me than Barto does, though I really don't have any good reads on anyone.

Vote: Crimson

These are his two posts.

I mean its possible he is just inactive town, which is kind of annoying.

[Cuthillius]

These are his two posts.

I mean its possible he is just inactive town, which is kind of annoying.

okay

so let's not have him as one of the primary wagons right now

0 information

not unusually likely to be inactive scum

[atheotes]

aye, I agree. I don't know why crimson is reacting so strongly like that but its not helping.

Better to focus elsewhere.

Do you have any thoughts on scum/town Atheotes?

x-post.

These are his two posts.

I mean its possible he is just inactive town, which is kind of annoying.

I dont think it is enought to warrant a lynch today. Only conclusion is that Crimson and Choxorn are not w/w. If Crimson is resolved as town, then the possibility of Choxorn being scum is high.

[Stork]

x-post.



I dont think it is enought to warrant a lynch today. Only conclusion is that Crimson and Choxorn are not w/w. If Crimson is resolved as town, then the possibility of Choxorn being scum is high.

i don't particularly understand how the latter part of this follows from the first part

seems just as possible it is v/v than v/w

[Cuthillius]

i don't particularly understand how the latter part of this follows from the first part

seems just as possible it is v/v than v/w

evidence piece number one

this is a really nitpicky/wolfy thing to post

stork has been doing this similarly to novice

hasn't been posting about important stuff and the stuff he comments on are not the things i would think he would as town

looking for opportunities to exploit more than actual problems

[Stork]

evidence piece number one

this is a really nitpicky/wolfy thing to post

stork has been doing this similarly to novice

hasn't been posting about important stuff and the stuff he comments on are not the things i would think he would as town

looking for opportunities to exploit more than actual problems

don't remember making a single post about novice, though if i did it wasn't specifically about novice because otherwise i would remember

how am i planning on exploiting this spot as a wolf, are you saying that choxorn is for sure my wolf bro?

[Cuthillius]

don't remember making a single post about novice, though if i did it wasn't specifically about novice because otherwise i would remember

how am i planning on exploiting this spot as a wolf, are you saying that choxorn is for sure my wolf bro?

not about novice, just novice has been doing the same sort of thing

and no

[atheotes]

i don't particularly understand how the latter part of this follows from the first part

seems just as possible it is v/v than v/w

well, he had a chance to get rid of a possible vig and he decided to take it.

[Stork]

well, he had a chance to get rid of a possible vig and he decided to take it.

i need to look back at the timing of the posts but im not sure i totally agree but that seems reasonable

[Askthepizzaguy]

i don't particularly understand how the latter part of this follows from the first part

seems just as possible it is v/v than v/w

Can't dismiss choxorn/Stork here.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Stork's iso in a nutshell goes like this:

Talks to townies before they die (10)
Talks to two of the strongest townies in my list of unclears (13)
Suspects or votes a dead townie or strong town lean (12)
All of that behavior makes up maybe a quarter of his posts.

All of that behavior is the same sort of behavior, unreadable and good for wolves.

The rest are all about suspecting Cuth, or talking to Cuth.
There are maybe 3 posts where he talks to Novice or atheotes.

Limiting his suspicions largely to one guy is anti-spew, so he won't leave obvious towns in the wake of his own corpse.

Almost all his behavior before he got really persistent on Cuth was discussing with now-dead townies or pushing dead townies to their death. Then it just gets really amped up on Cuth-related spam. It just looks like Stork has been power wolfing all game, unless Cuth is a wolf. There's nothing there which I can point to that says town. His post count is inflated by Cuth-posts.

[Dp101]

Little lost, how is Stork talking to townies bad? Isn't it important to communicate to discuss cases and such, so I don't see what is wrong with talking to your fellow town.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Little lost, how is Stork talking to townies bad? Isn't it important to communicate to discuss cases and such, so I don't see what is wrong with talking to your fellow town.

This is a tendency I noticed in a game on this site a long time ago, and it has served me well in many games since. What I noticed was the following pattern from the scum:

1) Accuse townie
2) Townie would be lynched or murdered
3) Accuse other townie
4) That townie would be lynched or murdered
5) Accuse another townie
6) That townie would be lynched or murdered
7) Accuse another townie
8) That townie would be lynched or murdered
9) Never decide any accused are town
10) The number of people who have been accused at the same time from the same person are always a couple or less.

This is very linear and extremely pro-wolf, and, you don't run into too many people at once who can OMGUS "oh my god, you suck" vote you right back for the sole reason of they are voting for you. That manages the diplo situation while culling town numbers.

Compare that to this:

1) Accuse unknown
2) Unknown is still alive
3) Decide unknown might be town, stop accusing said unknown
4) Accuse townie, unknown, unknown, townie
5) A townie is lynched
6) Accuse unknown and unknown, accuse yet another unknown
7) None are lynched
8) Continue accusing said unknowns
9) A townie is murdered

etc

The latter pattern fits more with the profile of a townie. It is not linear and does not control the diplo situation. The former pattern fits with scums. This becomes especially apparent when someone is power wolfing.

That's because the objective of the power wolf is to push as many townies to death as possible, but they still need to have people on their side while they're doing it. It is more effective to have no opinion on most of the game than to alienate potential voting allies. However, once you've crushed several townies to death, you still need to continue crushing townies. Thus, moving on to another acceptable target and pushing them. Cycle repeats.

The accusations fit the pattern of who is murdered and who is lynched.

Townies, on the other hand, have no idea who the mafia are going to shoot, so the people they speak to will not fit the pattern as much and will contain a larger percentage of unknowns. They also don't have a good idea where the scums are, and thus, don't know who is the easiest townie to lynch, and therefore, their voting and accusing pattern will be far less linear.

I named this concept "Mafia ESP". Predicting who will die, with your votes, accusations, and who you decide to talk to.

The reason why it is a tell is because the longer this pattern keeps up, the more unlikely it is for a know-nothing townie to have stumbled upon the pattern by random chance, and the more likely it is for the explanation to be based on being part of the wolf team, and controlling the diplomacy situation in the thread, and knowing which people are safe to vote for, which people are not wolves, and so forth.

This pattern doesn't typically emerge from villagers by random chance very often, so when I see it, it's scum almost all of the time. Wolves are also typically never so blatant on this particular website, so I hardly ever use this tell. But the past couple times I used it on this site, it was correct.

[Cuthillius]

Stork's iso in a nutshell goes like this:

Talks to townies before they die (10)
Talks to two of the strongest townies in my list of unclears (13)
Suspects or votes a dead townie or strong town lean (12)
All of that behavior makes up maybe a quarter of his posts.

All of that behavior is the same sort of behavior, unreadable and good for wolves.

The rest are all about suspecting Cuth, or talking to Cuth.
There are maybe 3 posts where he talks to Novice or atheotes.

Limiting his suspicions largely to one guy is anti-spew, so he won't leave obvious towns in the wake of his own corpse.

Almost all his behavior before he got really persistent on Cuth was discussing with now-dead townies or pushing dead townies to their death. Then it just gets really amped up on Cuth-related spam. It just looks like Stork has been power wolfing all game, unless Cuth is a wolf. There's nothing there which I can point to that says town. His post count is inflated by Cuth-posts.

[Stork]

It just looks like Stork has been power wolfing all game, unless Cuth is a wolf.

i think you need to reread that article

[CrimsonFox]

x-post.



I dont think it is enought to warrant a lynch today. Only conclusion is that Crimson and Choxorn are not w/w. If Crimson is resolved as town, then the possibility of Choxorn being scum is high.

wel;l that's just it, palsy-walsy...i may not resolve as anything.

[atheotes]

wel;l that's just it, palsy-walsy...i may not resolve as anything.

what do you mean?

[CrimsonFox]

what do you mean?

as i said...

I don't know if i can vig someone tonight. I will know when I can when I can.
Unless the wolves kill me...then i'll just flip town. doesn't look like roles are revealed

[atheotes]

I dont think it is enought to warrant a lynch today. Only conclusion is that Crimson and Choxorn are not w/w. If Crimson is resolved as town, then the possibility of Choxorn being scum is high.

wel;l that's just it, palsy-walsy...i may not resolve as anything.

as i said...

I don't know if i can vig someone tonight. I will know when I can when I can.
Unless the wolves kill me...then i'll just flip town. doesn't look like roles are revealed

i said if you are resolved as town... and you may not resolve as anything. hence the qn.

[atheotes]

Cuth is coming off worser in the discussion with Stork. And I actually started from a position of Stork being scummy.

[CrimsonFox]

i said if you are resolved as town... and you may not resolve as anything. hence the qn.

oh I thought you were saying like what the other guys were saying with...

"if i kill someone tonight, then i am a vig, if i don't i must be scum..."