Futuramafia [Concluded]

[GeneralHankerchief]

Which three, GH?

The latter three. I didn't have any real information that I was comfortable with, wanted to hear from Pelican, and at the time the town was (and still is somewhat) running around like chickens with their heads cut off.

[Murska]

Tally as of post 2368:

Lynch votes
3 votes: Montmorency (Askthepizzaguy, Cuthillius, Dp101)
1 votes: Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
1 votes: Al Sipsclar (GeneralHankerchief)

Voting history:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

This looks a lot like a scum driven wagon to me.

[Riedquat]

I totally missed that.

Do you have a faulty cpu?

This looks a lot like a scum driven wagon to me.

Really? What makes you think that?

BTW Human, who are you?

[Al Sipsclar]

Alright, I think we need to get the ball rolling. I had three successful jailkeeps in a row against Pelican. I move off him on Al Sipsclar and suddenly he avoids my prison. Either somebody actively impeded me (and usually a JK has priority), or it was a passive ability on Al Sipsclar's part.

Vote: Al Sipsclar

Donbot, please. I'll pay you back as soon as you lend me some more money.

No, I'm a vanilla townie. I'm not going anywhere and not doing anything.
Vote: Montmorency

[Pelican]

(hey sorry for my absence in the last couple of phases; classes + Big Brother premiere sponged my time. I'm taking a break but I've still got about 10 pages or so to read, and wanted to know if there is anything I should be focusing on, any questions that directly involve me, etc...)

[Dp101]

Did GH's claimed roleblock on you for first 3 nights block any actions you tried to perform? Or are you Vanilla?

[Montmorency]

DP, why are you not voting Winston or Pizza given that their role claims have nothing to back them up and statistically one or both are lying? Did you not follow yesterday's events?

Al Sipsclar at least probably didn't follow due to lurk, but that's no excuse here.

GH, it's quite clear that Pizza's group (the one with the MAFIA ROLEBLOCKER per his own admission) blocked you last night, because my plan made it specifically disadvantageous to kill you.

[Dp101]

I'm voting you because the tone of your responses (I know I said tone reads aren't that great past D1, but what's life without a bit of hypocrisy) feels very much like scrambling mafia trying to respond to someone finally figuring them out, and pizza's arguments make more sense. I promise that if you are innocent I will go after Pizza and Winston next.

[Montmorency]

pizza's arguments make more sense

Help me through that one.

[novice]

I promise that if you are innocent I will go after Pizza and Winston next.

This is like the fourth time you make a promise like that. Why don't you reread some of the old wagons and analyze the vote swings, or do any other sort of scumhunting, instead of blithely assuming that people who argue always have opposite alignments?

[novice]

Help me through that one.

To be honest, Pizzas arguments are easier to follow. Maybe yours are better, but I think some spoon-feeding could be helpful.

[Dp101]

This is like the fourth time you make a promise like that. Why don't you reread some of the old wagons and analyze the vote swings, or do any other sort of scumhunting, instead of blithely assuming that people who argue always have opposite alignments?

I agree the others were hasty, but in this case I feel that this is a clear wolf vs town power play, and that there is no way both of them are innocent.

[El Barto]

A lot of irrelevant verbiage that doesn't come close to addressing the following likely course of actions:

I am town, I think GH is town, I offer you a way to prove your townieness based on your claims. You refuse. You block or have blocked General Hank (since you are the one suddenly pushing the idea of Mafia roleblocker).

Die. Vote: Pizza

He isn't the only one speculating about the scum having more than one ability, y'know.

This is like the fourth time you make a promise like that. Why don't you reread some of the old wagons and analyze the vote swings, or do any other sort of scumhunting, instead of blithely assuming that people who argue always have opposite alignments?

He could be scum, y'know.

[Montmorency]

Well, OK. Some of Pizza's material seems clearly irrelevant and incoherent to me, only there to take up space. However, if you think there's something crucial I fail to address, point it out.

First this, for completeness:

Gh wasn't blocking me last night because I could move.

He wasn't blocking Winston either, because Winston could move.

Winston wasn't blocking GH, because Winston moved elsewhere.

Winston isn't the mafia roleblocker.

GH should have blocked one of us last night, but he blocked neither. Why would he block no one last night if he's scum?

Let's say he's scum and not the roleblocker, just a goon. Why would the rest of the team not block anyone?

Because he isn't scum and scum blocked him? It's a nice rhetorical device to suddenly speak as though from perspective that GH is seen as scum, but it's more distraction than substance.

Here's Pizza's main attack post, Part I:

Reidquat's claim leads me to believe he's not the mafia roleblocker. Still possible, just extremely doubtful.

Al wasn't blocking anyone the night I tracked him, because he went nowhere. If he's the mafia roleblocker, maybe he missed a night. Possible yet doubtful.

If Pelican were the mafia roleblocker, then GH should have stopped him from blocking me on N3, unless Pelican and GH are scum together. That still doesn't explain why no one got blocked except "GH" on N4. There's no way GH deliberately doesn't block me to get me to believe he's been blocked instead of me. He could just kill me.

The only way Askthepizzaguy is even allowed to track anyone is if the killer is a ninja and thus able to evade my tracking, because it's pointless to take that risk, or there's a godfather in play, or there's a power the scums needed to block more than my own: GH's power.

They could have killed any of Pizza or Winston or GH and chose instead to kill a person with no night action.

What has been presented to me as a straightforward choice is nothing of the sort.

The suggested configuration of all the town powers checking each other, tells me that there was a design in place. I'm supposed to arrive at a certain conclusion, and it's supposed to be really obvious. And even if I didn't arrive at it, if the focus is on GH, Winston, and Pizza, odds are still really really good a townie gets lynched. Plus I've got like 8 live players who want to lynch me. So it doesn't really matter.

Now, if that was all I had to go on, I'd be really stumped as to who was messing with me. I'd suspect the people who suggested specific actions, since they were designed to lead to this conclusion, but it would only be a hunch.

But it's not hard to piece together who was messing with me. You suggested the plan that would have led to no definitive conclusions and simply Winston-GH-Pizza suspecting each other. Your votes led to the town powers getting outed in the first place. The way you're driving the discussion right now.

There was a design, but the one he outlines clearly isn't logical. If Pizza were really suspected by everyone, there would be no need to deal with him more than superficially. Winston, of course, had no specified part in the proposed trio and I was not aware of his role claim anyway. As for GH, he already had enough flak coming his way, and I was clearly a countervailing pressure to that. Under these circumstances, if I were scum I would just need to sit tight and wait for the mislynches. The real design, as laid out in thread - I hope I don't have to link the table, as it has appeared several times recently - was to limit Pizza's possible moves. The idea was, if Pizza was NON-town, then he would be forced into wildcard. If Pizza were town and GH were town, then clearly Mafia would have no problem regardless of what any of them did, especially if buying into the hypothesis of Mafia having their own blocker role. If Pizza were scum, however, then he could not continue acting without commitment as in previous phases. By drawing that attention to Pizza, associating him with a block power, then I made it so killing GH would reflect poorly on him, and the same for simply blocking him to keep him from causing damage. In other words, Pizza was locked into making a specific response to GH either being killed or being blocked, and in this case the best response would be to shift attention onto someone else.

You are using me as bait while simultaneously trying to get me to lynch someone you say is town.

If I were scum, then clearly there's no need for anyone to spin a fancy tale - I've been going after Pizza since Day 3 at least. As for making Pizza go after GH - why? I would want Pizza to go after someone else, to make him look bad, so that I could lynch them both separately. Pizza going after GH wouldn't be in my favor as it just leads to a dead GH. And the causal chain offered for how it would influence Pizza to go after GH in the first place is not well-conceived. If GH is not killed, and there is a Mafia block available, then obviously Mafia, no matter who they are, will prevent GH from acting. You could literally spin this into any possible scum-team configuration using Pizza's logic, making it worthless.


The simplest chain of events remains that Pizza is lying and that he is scum.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Elaborate web of deception that I fell for versus you simply spinning one after the fact. Which is simpler?

[El Barto]

@Askthepizzaguy:

WH at 11 per day average total, but has very regular spikes in activity over and over, then absent. The spikes are at 34, 24, and 17, which is downward, yet still much more than the 9 per day average he started with. I also think all of this activity is above his baseline.

Why don't you check what those spikes in activity answer to?

For good old metal-assed me?

[Askthepizzaguy]

El Barto, given what WH said about his RL situation, I'm not sure activity levels are the way to look at Winston. I know I'm saying that after I went through the trouble of looking at them, but I was looking at anyone in the top half of the post count when I did it. He has a full claim and it can be judged on its merits, and he has game long behavior we can look at. Both should indicate more strongly than his activity pattern.

It's partly that and partly because it is 2am my time and I put a lot of hours into the game today while being sick.

If it's really important I can maybe take a look today, but I'd advise anyone else with time to try instead.

[Montmorency]

Elaborate web of deception that I fell for versus you simply spinning one after the fact. Which is simpler?

Uh, neither? Stop changing the subject.

[El Barto]

El Barto, given what WH said about his RL situation, I'm not sure activity levels are the way to look at Winston. I know I'm saying that after I went through the trouble of looking at them, but I was looking at anyone in the top half of the post count when I did it. He has a full claim and it can be judged on its merits, and he has game long behavior we can look at. Both should indicate more strongly than his activity pattern.

It's partly that and partly because it is 2am my time and I put a lot of hours into the game today while being sick.

If it's really important I can maybe take a look today, but I'd advise anyone else with time to try instead.

Oh, so you did go through the trouble of looking at them. What did he answer to? Did you notice anything?
Just a quick comment would suffice.

(OOC: Sorry, Winston, I'm not trying to be an arse)
-------------------
On other topics, do we have any other suspects here? Other than jht who'd never post more than twice a day even if the GM made him unlynchable and bulletproof for it, has anyone else dropped under the radar?

[Dp101]

I'm really sorry that I haven't been able to make stronger cases or think independently this game, and have basically been sheeping Pizza the last 2 days. I have found that as town I really don't know how to disregard someone's opinion when I'm pretty sure they are mafia, and thus keep being convinced by anyone that so much as posts anything resembling a case. I have no faith in any of my reads, which leads to me wanting to find new ones, and then I end up with no cases I believe in since I, again, keep reading cases that likely mafia post, because I have an irrational fear of losing the game after tunneling on someone who ends up town. Its funny, I'm pretty sure my town game is strongest early and weakest late, while my wolf game is the other way round. I just want to feel like I actually accomplished something this game. Thats why I keep making posts related to lynching other people if certain other people flip in particular ways, because I keep waiting for things to click, the wolves to be revealed, and a feeling of knowing something for certain. Instead, I keep lynching wagons and going along with whatever seems trendy at the time. I'm really less useful to the village alive than dead, because my vote is so easily swung the mafia might as well be directing it. Sorry for the kind of off topic rant, I'm just feeling really down about the game right now.

[Montmorency]

Right.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Riedquat]

I'm really less useful to the village alive than dead, because my vote is so easily swung the mafia might as well be directing it.

Do not despair! I believe every townie paying a bit of attention to the game is feeling a bit like that, a great truth GH said, the town is running around like head-less chickens, and as clearly noted before I'm not even town and have the exact same feeling, only difference I don't run, I just walk around very slowly! ;)

It is day five, town with all the logic and scumhunting techniques didn't catch a single scum with exception of CrimsonFox who followed his own guts!

My guts tell me, Monty is town and GH is just a townie with a very faulty cpu or has a personal agenda of sorts! While Atpg and Winston are probably scum...

It feels like shooting in the dark and my programing forbid doing things like that...

[novice]

I reread day 1. Pelican sums up my impressions pretty aptly here:

Biggest wolf vibes are from Murska, ATPG, and Montmomrency:

Murska and ATPG both potentially lying low. I know this accusation could apply to a lot of people (yours truly included) but these two actually feel restrained based on my expectations. Murska's Cuthilius vote also sticks out as especially weird to me. As for Montmomrency, I really don't like the super general posts inserted in the midst of all the action. Did he actually give any comments on what was actually going on in thread or was it all filler so he could look like an active contributor without having to risk anything?

Other stuff:

I was unimpresed with GH sheeping Cuthilius onto me, and this post actually shows that he went back and read my exchange with Cuthilius where I IMO refuted his case, and GH still kept his vote on me.

I have Barto as null for the most part, but after going back and checking the Cuthilius/novice exchange I think it's a good look on him, especially if the flips go correctly.

Cuthilius was indeed looking towny on the second half of D1, so:

cuth is almost certainly town, not sure what pizza and murska are doing there

Finally:

i feel less confident on spaceman given wagonments

still fine with him flipping

el barto dying tonight is good

clear out those wagons

Was this Visor breadcrumbing an El Barto vig shot? Need to read Visor's day 2 to see if he breadcrumbed more.

To be continued, multiquote limit is forcing me to post.

[novice]

I'm really sorry that I haven't been able to make stronger cases or think independently this game, and have basically been sheeping Pizza the last 2 days. I have found that as town I really don't know how to disregard someone's opinion when I'm pretty sure they are mafia, and thus keep being convinced by anyone that so much as posts anything resembling a case. I have no faith in any of my reads, which leads to me wanting to find new ones, and then I end up with no cases I believe in since I, again, keep reading cases that likely mafia post, because I have an irrational fear of losing the game after tunneling on someone who ends up town. Its funny, I'm pretty sure my town game is strongest early and weakest late, while my wolf game is the other way round. I just want to feel like I actually accomplished something this game. Thats why I keep making posts related to lynching other people if certain other people flip in particular ways, because I keep waiting for things to click, the wolves to be revealed, and a feeling of knowing something for certain. Instead, I keep lynching wagons and going along with whatever seems trendy at the time. I'm really less useful to the village alive than dead, because my vote is so easily swung the mafia might as well be directing it. Sorry for the kind of off topic rant, I'm just feeling really down about the game right now.

I also disliked Dp on day 1, also upon reread. But it would be incredible for scum to make posts like the one above though, perfectly describing the current town mindset.

Don't despair, Dp. Try rereading a random part of the thread, everything reads differently with the benefit of hindsight and knowing people's alignments.

[novice]

Over to night 2 now.

- Al will always vote for me when he has the chance, especially on D1. I should really remember that and just begin to vote him too. It would save on trying to be cute with D1 votes.

If this is a thing we can write off Al's day 1 as null.

Also, keeping track of all the information can be a bit of a pain in the, er, ass.

I didn't realize quite how early ATPG breadcrumbed his role. His tracking of Winston on N4 also demonstrates it, but it seems clear that if ATPG is scum, scum have a tracker.

takhsis getting that role is the worst thing imaginable

This was Visor's first post on D2. Not sure if it fits with Visor as vig, but I rerealize now that Visor as vig makes little sense anyway since he would've gone after CrimsonFox then.

Checking in.

I agree that Barto probably wasn't a mafia kill due to him being lynchbait.

Checking out, 'night all.

This was GH's first post after ostensibly jailing Pelican and seeing just one kill, which he believed not to be a mafia kill. Personally I would have looked into Pelican at this point.

Reread up to post 640.

[novice]

I read up to post 720. The D2 ATPG flood is less impressive on reread. He's maneuvering to lynch me and Cuthilius.

[novice]

And BSmith.

[novice]

Hmmm.... Unless I'm mistaken, it was Visor's Rise o' Teh Snek Cult. Got mowed by winston on the 2nd day.


Anyways, I'm starting to wonder if I didn't psych myself out on Fox. My initial gut still says he's too brazen to be mafia. But, then again, I've always said that the best way to play scum roles is to do that which the gut wouldn't believe. Another part of me wants to lynch him just to hopefully reduce the postcount a bit so I don't have so much catching up to do after work. But mostly, now I'm really not liking this flip flopping on your potential role. To reiterate Barto: Are you a vig, or are you not? That claim towards the end of the round... as I said earlier, brazen, especially with possible mafia buds to bus you. But, if you're neutral/independent, then that makes a lot more sense. Screw it,

Vote: CrimsonFox

Other notes: yeah sorry to say it, folks who aren't too familiar with, but I'm just seeing monty here. Now that doesn't mean too much, Monty's quite consistent in his own inconsistent way, if that makes any sense. Not a preferred target to lynch.

Pizza is... .decidedly quiet this game, despite his earlier run of posts. At least, based on what I'm used to. Old me would be very suspicious of this, but new me is a bit more lenient on the "rl gets in teh way" excuse than old me. Still, mild suspicion.

Seeing some suspicion lobbed at Cuth. Not totally sure why. Am I missing something?
Also, hooray, I don't have to throw a tirade about LoverBoy GeneralHankerchief being randomly bandwaggoned on the first or second day!

At least one and probably exactly one out of Cuth, Pizza, Monty, GH is scum. Low posting scum tend to make sure they discuss at least one scum buddy.

[novice]

My interpretation of Khaan's post is that he's defending his buddy Monty (who had 4 votes at the time), shading Pizza, and fishing for a Cuthilius lynch. GH possible second scum buddy.

[Murska]

Vote: ATPG once again.