XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[El Barto]

There's eight of us alive right now.

autolycus - 5 posts
Csargo - 304 posts
Cuthillius - 134 posts
Dp101 - 201 posts
El Barto - 130 posts
Fredwood - 88 posts
Logic - 70 posts
Winston Hughes - 58 posts

Most give us something to work with. Only Logic and Winston are in danger of being outposted by the GM - auto's a special case.

Our EoD tallies so far are here, with some analysis.
People with their names both in colour and bolded are those cleared by their death results.
People with a name not bolded are those whose alignment is all but certain, i.e. Cuthillius. Underlined comes, obviously, my own good self, whom you should be considering to be town. Take my word for it. My name is Bartholomew Simpson, it wasn't me and I didn't do it.

4 Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, El Barto, Champ, Dp101)

2 Csargo (novice, Jowy)
2 Dp101 (Manasi, Csargo)
2 El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
2 Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)

1 Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
1 Champ (crimson_snow)
1 Logic (Winston Hughes)
1 novice (autolycus)
1 Sooh (BSmith)

The strategy seems to have been based on

1. not voting together
2. not voting each other, because the lynch required a plurality and an energetic townie pulling a Chinese fire drill on someone might have just seen a scummioso lynched with three or four votes. Or even two, with a random tiebreaker (!).
3. trying to vote with a townie
4. try not to vote with the actual lynch in order to prevent information from getting out.

This would give some town credibility to Dp101, Csargo, possibly Winston. autolycus starts by voting scum!novice alone which would break the pattern (notice how, when Manasi was pressed on D3, as I pointed out, she tried to divert attention off herself and BSmith onto him -as I've said, Manasi's been sticking to the same recipe she used last game a bit clumsily this game and it's been failing her) -all in all, autolycus would seem to be cleared, at least by D1 standards of course.

Logic? Fred? Not cleared at all.

Now let's go to Day Two.

6 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice, Manasi)
6 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo, crimson_snow)

2 Manasi (Sooh, Winston Hughes)

1 Csargo (GeneralHankerchief)

There's a mistake in the original tally, with novice also listed as voting for Sooh, whom he unvoted in order to get atpg lynched (he had the credible excuse of self-defence, which Manasi didn't)

I will assume that everybody still voting for the scummioso in such a situation is not mafia, unless they have a deeply buried busser (which is a bit unlikely on D2, see their behaviour on D1). Csargo could have said OMGUS, vote: General ChamperChief!

Or not! Let us see this tiny gem that happened when Manasi stepped in to give herself away.

Ugh.

Vote: Novice

This is mostly a protest mechanical vote because I am not wasting a lynch on a town read who could possibly die in the night from poison.

Let the record show, I wanted to lynch Barto.

LOL wtf

vote: pizza

remember not to post after :00

All four posts have timestamps at :58. The change in mood in Csargo's posts is evident. If he were mafia he would have said nothing. Who has the time to coördinate such a response? Manasi was on duty at EoD, saw a sudden lynch on one of her partners, and sprang to action. Csargo, if mafia, would

This is some town cred for the C-man.


Logic? Let's dig in to find his vote and any justification(s).

6 Manasi (Sooh, autolycus, Winston Hughes, El Barto, novice, BSmith)

5 BSmith (Cuth, Fred, Csargo, Dp101, Monty)

1 autolycus (Manasi)
1 Csargo (Logic)

The top two waggons are scum! What a tough situation for the mafia! But they actually should have lynched BSmith. Manasi's flip all but doomed novice. At least Cuth and Monty listened to me.
Basically anybody and everybody in D3 can
Manasi tried to vote auto and it didn't work.

Logic… is the only one not voting mafia. PIS? A repeat of the ‘let's not vote together’ grand strategy?

7 BSmith (Monty, Dp101, Logic, Fredwood, Cuth, Winston, Csargo)

1 Fredwood (auto)
1 novice (El Barto)

----

Not Voting: novice

Not Posting: BSmith

On Day Four… everyone voting then and there voted for BSmith, except me and autolycus. It's really, really quite ballsy for autolycus to not join the waggon if scum.

Back to our list!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

autolycus - 5 posts
Csargo - 304 posts
Cuthillius - 134 posts
Dp101 - 201 posts
El Barto - 130 posts
Fredwood - 88 posts
Logic - 70 posts
Winston Hughes - 58 posts

Dp101 has been posting in a healthy manner and has been helpful when he had no reason to be so, e.g. handing out tidbits of the XCOM lore.

Winston's been making logical arguments when sober. See this for example, on D3 when atpg had been lynched and then revived, with novice still alive.

atpg needs a world religion founded in his name, though I'm slightly disappointed that he didn't rewrite the lyrics to Mama Said Knock You Out by way of celebration (lifetime's supply of cookies if you get the reference, pizza).

GH is lock town. Ability makes no sense for scum. As per my miller bit, Zack's bastard days are long since passed.

On Cuth, the debunking of the case on novice would be impressive from town, but truly exceptional from scum. With respect, I don't believe he's reached the level of skill and audacity where he would dare going toe-to-toe with pizza in such a manner unless he actually believed what he was saying. Which, somewhat perversely, means he's lock town if novice flips scum.

Everyone else remains in the suspect pool pending ISOs and flips.

He also locked on Manasi early on (voted her on D2 and stuck there, now again on D3 he helped lynch her by one vote). As scum he could have jollied her along in her disparagement of Sooh's posts. Sooh would have had a hard time facing a coördinated attack on two or three fronts; a relatively unsuspected BSmith by then might have just jumped in to help if all three were scum.

Logic's posts:

It looks like Monty is saying exactly what I was thinking:

Since novice is poisoned, we should let the poison play out, if possible. I don't for a second buy that he is a third party Avenger Pilot. The claim reeks of desperation.

I agree that Bsmith is our best bet today. If for some crazy reason novice is telling the truth, I find it unlikely he is going to be spared by the XCOM, assuming they have limited resources, but I don't see anyine in town lining up to have his back either. If novice lives, he's been spared by scum. That's reason enough to take him out if the poison doesn't do it for us.

Vote: Bsmith

Sheep?

Hardclaim: Advent Trooper

Vanillager claim, hi there you handsomely similar trooper!

So, for now, I think the order of lynching is Logic, then thunderdome autolycus-Fredwood. Dp101 and Winston are currently more likely town than scum, Csargo is more likely scum than they are. Subject to changes dependent on spew and/or what I find from revived!atpg's walls of text tomorrow.

On the dead scum:
Regarding the rôles of our departed scum, I think novice the sharpshooter is the daytime vigilante - I suspected him for being online at the time and I see no reason to think otherwise.
It also seems that Monty's kill was decided in advance for spearheading the BSmith lynch - his doctor claim was at :59, with too little time for a new kill to be sent in.

[Dp101]

Agree with sharpshooter probably being dayvig, role + timing makes a lot of sense. Broadly agree with basically all of that analysis, thanks for putting it together, you can be lock town in my book.

[El Barto]

Ach! I see that some errata are needed.

Re: d2

All four posts have timestamps at :58. The change in mood in Csargo's posts is evident. If he were mafia he would have said nothing. Who has the time to coördinate such a response? Manasi was on duty at EoD, saw a sudden lynch on one of her partners, and sprang to action. Csargo, if mafia, would have also sprung to his teammate's defence rather than engaging in histrionics.

Re: d3

The top two waggons are scum! What a tough situation for the mafia! But they actually should have lynched BSmith. Manasi's flip all but doomed novice. At least Cuth and Monty listened to me.
Basically anybody and everybody in D3 can hide safely.
Manasi tried to vote auto and it didn't work.

Fredwood's not off the hook yet.
He flinched hard on D1/D2 while claiming not to know what flinching meant. It might just have been a side-effect of his being a newcomer who isn't used to my shenanigans, or he was an unnerved mafioso.
auto voting for him… @autolycus, please come out with more on that.

Somehow I think that auto not joining the bandwaggon last phase makes him look better.

[Fredwood]

Ach! I see that some errata are needed.

Re: d2



Re: d3


Fredwood's not off the hook yet.
He flinched hard on D1/D2 while claiming not to know what flinching meant. It might just have been a side-effect of his being a newcomer who isn't used to my shenanigans, or he was an unnerved mafioso.
auto voting for him… @autolycus, please come out with more on that.

Somehow I think that auto not joining the bandwaggon last phase makes him look better.

I didn't flinch I moved on man because of you and DP said it was a dumb joke that I extrapolated the read from, so you'd rather I kept pushing a train of thought based of incorrect data? Derp. I'm pretty clear from a novice spew as he was basically the person to keep parroting my day 1 conclusions on you on day 2. He doesn't push hard on something I had given up on as a legit avenue if we're teammates. So not a flinch, just not tunneling. But hey T-dome me with auto...would be kind of a boring thunderdome.

[Fredwood]

A townie, after lynching two scummiosi in a row and vigging the other (the town doc having the foresight not to cure the poisoned third scummioso) in the last two day-night cycles? Hmmmm.

Hmmmm. I don't like your tone completely still, Mr. Fred. You don't care but then you vote anyway… that's off, man.

The hell you talking about. I was asking Cuth why he though Auto was a better lynch over Logic. So not sure what kind of tone you were expecting when I thought his lynch order was wrong.

[Zack]

I will probably extend this to an extra-long day because of the holiday, sorry for any non-americans who won't be spending tomorrow bathing in freedom and kissing bald eagles.

[Logic]

I will probably extend this to an extra-long day because of the holiday, sorry for any non-americans who won't be spending tomorrow bathing in freedom and kissing bald eagles.

July 2nd SHOULD be Independence Day, anyway.

I see what El Barto has to say about Csargo, and he looks clearer, but I don't think that outs him as lock town as Barto does.

If the remaining, I feel better about Dp101 and/or Fredwood than anyone else, but I think testing Auto's claim is probably the best bet.

As ling as the day is extended 24 hours or so, I probably will have time to make my own observations. For now, all i can accomplish is checking in to read the latest posts from time to time.
Vote: autolycus

[El Barto]

Revised version of my huge reads post:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

There's eight of us alive right now.

autolycus - 5 posts
Csargo - 304 posts
Cuthillius - 134 posts
Dp101 - 201 posts
El Barto - 130 posts
Fredwood - 88 posts
Logic - 70 posts
Winston Hughes - 58 posts

Most give us something to work with. Only Logic and Winston are in danger of being outposted by the GM - auto's a special case.

Our EoD tallies so far are here, with some analysis.
People with their names both in colour and bolded are those cleared by their death results.
People with a name not bolded are those whose alignment is all but certain, i.e. Cuthillius. Underlined comes, obviously, my own good self, whom you should be considering to be town. Take my word for it. My name is Bartholomew Simpson, it wasn't me and I didn't do it.

4 Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, El Barto, Champ, Dp101)

2 Csargo (novice, Jowy)
2 Dp101 (Manasi, Csargo)
2 El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
2 Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)

1 Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
1 Champ (crimson_snow)
1 Logic (Winston Hughes)
1 novice (autolycus)
1 Sooh (BSmith)

The strategy seems to have been based on

1. not voting together
2. not voting each other, because the lynch required a plurality and an energetic townie pulling a Chinese fire drill on someone might have just seen a scummioso lynched with three or four votes. Or even two, with a random tiebreaker (!).
3. trying to vote with a townie
4. try not to vote with the actual lynch in order to prevent information from getting out.

This would give some town credibility to Dp101, Csargo, possibly Winston. autolycus starts by voting scum!novice alone which would break the pattern (notice how, when Manasi was pressed on D3, as I pointed out, she tried to divert attention off herself and BSmith onto him -as I've said, Manasi's been sticking to the same recipe she used last game a bit clumsily this game and it's been failing her) -all in all, autolycus would seem to be cleared, at least by D1 standards of course.

Logic? Fred? Not cleared at all.

Now let's go to Day Two.

6 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice, Manasi)
6 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo, crimson_snow)

2 Manasi (Sooh, Winston Hughes)

1 Csargo (GeneralHankerchief)

There's a mistake in the original tally, with novice also listed as voting for Sooh, whom he unvoted in order to get atpg lynched (he had the credible excuse of self-defence, which Manasi didn't)

I will assume that everybody still voting for the scummioso in such a situation is not mafia, unless they have a deeply buried busser (which is a bit unlikely on D2, see their behaviour on D1). Csargo could have said OMGUS, vote: General ChamperChief!

Or not! Let us see this tiny gem that happened when Manasi stepped in to give herself away.

Ugh.

Vote: Novice

This is mostly a protest mechanical vote because I am not wasting a lynch on a town read who could possibly die in the night from poison.

Let the record show, I wanted to lynch Barto.

LOL wtf

vote: pizza

remember not to post after :00

All four posts have timestamps at :58. The change in mood in Csargo's posts is evident. If he were mafia he would have said nothing. Who has the time to coördinate such a response? Manasi was on duty at EoD, saw a sudden lynch on one of her partners, and sprang to action. Csargo, if mafia, would have also sprung to his teammate's defence rather than engaging in histrionics.

This is some town cred for the C-man.


Logic? Let's dig in to find his vote and any justification(s).

6 Manasi (Sooh, autolycus, Winston Hughes, El Barto, novice, BSmith)

5 BSmith (Cuth, Fred, Csargo, Dp101, Monty)

1 autolycus (Manasi)
1 Csargo (Logic)

The top two waggons are scum! What a tough situation for the mafia! But they actually should have lynched BSmith. Manasi's flip all but doomed novice. At least Cuth and Monty listened to me.
Basically anybody and everybody in D3 can hide safely.
Manasi tried to vote auto and it didn't work.

Logic… is the only one not voting mafia. PIS? A repeat of the ‘let's not vote together’ grand strategy?

7 BSmith (Monty, Dp101, Logic, Fredwood, Cuth, Winston, Csargo)

1 Fredwood (auto)
1 novice (El Barto)

----

Not Voting: novice

Not Posting: BSmith

On Day Four… everyone voting then and there voted for BSmith, except me and autolycus. It's really, really quite ballsy for autolycus to not join the waggon if scum.

Back to our list!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

autolycus - 5 posts
Csargo - 304 posts
Cuthillius - 134 posts
Dp101 - 201 posts
El Barto - 130 posts
Fredwood - 88 posts
Logic - 70 posts
Winston Hughes - 58 posts

Dp101 has been posting in a healthy manner and has been helpful when he had no reason to be so, e.g. handing out tidbits of the XCOM lore.

Winston's been making logical arguments when sober. See this for example, on D3 when atpg had been lynched and then revived, with novice still alive.

atpg needs a world religion founded in his name, though I'm slightly disappointed that he didn't rewrite the lyrics to Mama Said Knock You Out by way of celebration (lifetime's supply of cookies if you get the reference, pizza).

GH is lock town. Ability makes no sense for scum. As per my miller bit, Zack's bastard days are long since passed.

On Cuth, the debunking of the case on novice would be impressive from town, but truly exceptional from scum. With respect, I don't believe he's reached the level of skill and audacity where he would dare going toe-to-toe with pizza in such a manner unless he actually believed what he was saying. Which, somewhat perversely, means he's lock town if novice flips scum.

Everyone else remains in the suspect pool pending ISOs and flips.

He also locked on Manasi early on (voted her on D2 and stuck there, now again on D3 he helped lynch her by one vote). As scum he could have jollied her along in her disparagement of Sooh's posts. Sooh would have had a hard time facing a coördinated attack on two or three fronts; a relatively unsuspected BSmith by then might have just jumped in to help if all three were scum.

Logic's posts:

It looks like Monty is saying exactly what I was thinking:

Since novice is poisoned, we should let the poison play out, if possible. I don't for a second buy that he is a third party Avenger Pilot. The claim reeks of desperation.

I agree that Bsmith is our best bet today. If for some crazy reason novice is telling the truth, I find it unlikely he is going to be spared by the XCOM, assuming they have limited resources, but I don't see anyine in town lining up to have his back either. If novice lives, he's been spared by scum. That's reason enough to take him out if the poison doesn't do it for us.

Vote: Bsmith

Sheep?

Hardclaim: Advent Trooper

Vanillager claim, hi there you handsomely similar trooper!

So, for now, I think the order of lynching is Logic, then thunderdome autolycus-Fredwood. Dp101 and Winston are currently more likely town than scum, Csargo is more likely town than they are. Subject to changes dependent on spew and/or what I find from revived!atpg's walls of text tomorrow.

On the dead scum:
Regarding the rôles of our departed scum, I think novice the sharpshooter is the daytime vigilante - I suspected him for being online at the time and I see no reason to think otherwise.
It also seems that Monty's kill was decided in advance for spearheading the BSmith lynch - his doctor claim was at :59, with too little time for a new kill to be sent in.

(No edits other than the errata in the two posts above, spoilered for your convenience)

[Csargo]

Oh man my second townread of the game, wow I'm honored.

Vote:Logic OMGUS

[El Barto]

So, for now, I think the order of lynching is Logic, then thunderdome autolycus-Fredwood. Dp101 and Winston are currently more likely town than scum, Csargo is more likely scum town than they are. Subject to changes dependent on spew and/or what I find from revived!atpg's walls of text tomorrow.

In chess notation: !!