XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[El Barto]

I'm just thinking in terms of Manasi's D2 vote on pizza. That vote was the precursor to her lynch imo, not that she looked good previously, but if novice is third party then her vote makes little sense.

This is a quite succint restatement of my point.

Unless she just wanted to get rid of a strong opponent, that's possible as well potentially.

Yes, but I don't think Manasi would be that clumsy. One atpg for 25% (or more) of their number is too much.
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After looking at the Pokemon game, I'd lean scum. Probably like 60% sure of that. There's much more substance there than here imo.

‘There’ being the Pokémon game and ‘here’ being this game?

[El Barto]

Yes, but I don't think Manasi would be that clumsy. One atpg for 25% (or more) of their number is too much.

If novice was town they'd've let him die and then killed atpg during the night. Nobody would protect the counterwaggon to a dead, proven townie. If anything, he would have been tracked. But not watched. atpg was a safe kill. What was unsafe was to let novice live.

Also, ‘pretend to be third party/SK’ is a gambit we have seen many times over the years. I'm not falling for it.

[El Barto]

What was unsafe was to let novice live.

*die, damn it.

[Csargo]

This is a quite succint restatement of my point.

Yes, but I don't think Manasi would be that clumsy. One atpg for 25% (or more) of their number is too much.
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‘There’ being the Pokémon game and ‘here’ being this game?

Yeah to the last part.

I'd agree about Manasi, it doesn't make sense to sacrifice yourself for one mislynched pizza. I'd lean novice has a higher chance of being scum than BSmith after Manasi's flip, but it's also weird that she didn't vote BSmith. I need to go back and look to see if she was around.

[El Barto]

Yeah to the last part.

I'd agree about Manasi, it doesn't make sense to sacrifice yourself for one mislynched pizza. I'd lean novice has a higher chance of being scum than BSmith after Manasi's flip, but it's also weird that she didn't vote BSmith. I need to go back and look to see if she was around.

See #1741 by yours truly.

An oldie!

This is very likely just me tinfoiling, but I think a scum is more likely to remember who was bulletproof than a townie. (At least, I had to look it up.)

It's not as if crimson_snow ended up being an actual bulletproof townie.

Unless, of course, the grenadier i.e. Manasi had a special bazooka/explosive kill.

[Dp101]

It's not as if crimson_snow ended up being an actual bulletproof townie.

Unless, of course, the grenadier i.e. Manasi had a special bazooka/explosive kill.

I thought that the claim implied that the bulletproof was oneshot?

[Dp101]

BTW I'm like 90% sure that there's a wolf between Monty and Csargo, but I really can't decide, at all, which one it is.

[Montmorency]

Barto, Bsmith flipping scum clears Cuth better than novice flipping scum.

Why don't we flip BSmith today, and see if novice flips tonight? He's publicly poisoned!

Claims, content, spew: everything right now points to Bsmith now, novice (if necessary) later.

If novice was town they'd've let him die and then killed atpg during the night. Nobody would protect the counterwaggon to a dead, proven townie. If anything, he would have been tracked. But not watched. atpg was a safe kill. What was unsafe was to let novice live.

Why not the other way around? Why isn't Pizza safer to lynch, since Pizza attracts night actions like, uh, flies to Pizza? I suspect it's more a matter of Manasi not wanting to be left off-wagon after making so many commitments and being active during EOD - and also not wanting to be directly responsible for flipping town Pizza.

Also, ‘pretend to be third party/SK’ is a gambit we have seen many times over the years. I'm not falling for it.

HE IS POISONED

See #1741 by yours truly.

An oldie!

It's not as if crimson_snow ended up being an actual bulletproof townie.

Unless, of course, the grenadier i.e. Manasi had a special bazooka/explosive kill.

He was bulletproof N1, during which we had no kill.

I have to say I really don't like the way you are characterizing these things, Bart.

[Dp101]

HE IS POISONED

To be fair, unless we lynch the specialist today, IMO there's a pretty good chance that the poison is cured, unless the (almost certain) doctor ability of the specialist is x-shot.

[Montmorency]

To be fair, unless we lynch the specialist today, IMO there's a pretty good chance that the poison is cured, unless the (almost certain) doctor ability of the specialist is x-shot.

As far as I'm concerned, we have public evidence novice may die tonight. We have no public evidence BSmith may die tonight.

This shouldn't be hard to weigh.

[Csargo]

If there's poison, there's most likely a counter to that right? I think that's a logical assumption. So who do you think is more likely to be scum Monty?

[Dp101]

As far as I'm concerned, we have public evidence novice may die tonight. We have no public evidence BSmith may die tonight.

This shouldn't be hard to weigh.

Oh yeah, I wasn't arguing that we should kill him, just commenting that his death is not a sure thing.

[Csargo]

A cure if you will.

[Montmorency]

If there's poison, there's most likely a counter to that right? I think that's a logical assumption. So who do you think is more likely to be scum Monty?

Right now, they might as well be equally likely and all other circumstances make lynching BSmith a better option than lynching novice.

Town if they don't vote BSmith

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Me if we don't lynch BSmith

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Dp101]

Oh fine. Vote: BSmith (can't remember if I was before, but I feel the need to show my commitment to the cause).

[Logic]

It looks like Monty is saying exactly what I was thinking:

Since novice is poisoned, we should let the poison play out, if possible. I don't for a second buy that he is a third party Avenger Pilot. The claim reeks of desperation.

I agree that Bsmith is our best bet today. If for some crazy reason novice is telling the truth, I find it unlikely he is going to be spared by the XCOM, assuming they have limited resources, but I don't see anyine in town lining up to have his back either. If novice lives, he's been spared by scum. That's reason enough to take him out if the poison doesn't do it for us.

Vote: Bsmith

[Zack]

Official Tally as of #1846

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Day 4 ends in:

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3 BSmith (Monty, Dp101, Logic)

1 Fredwood (auto)
1 novice (El Barto)

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Not Voting: Csargo, Cuth, novice

Not Posting: BSmith, Fredwood, Winston

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If you notice anything wrong, PM me.

[novice]

[Fredwood]

I'm in agreement about B.Smith over Novice.

What are the chances of scum curing Novice to keep him alive for another day phase? Could the poison also be a manipulation to force the Bsmith vote today? Cuth hasn't claimed the poison right, or did I miss that?

I'm probably over thinking it, so I'll just

vote: BSmith

[Cuthillius]

oh there's still plenty of time

good

vote:bsmith

in case it wasn't clear, d1 i poisoned and was under the incorrect belief that it didn't work on pizza, rather than just failing, which was the case

[Winston Hughes]

Weird claim from novice. Don't believe it, but also can't imagine what it's intended to achieve. Certainly not buying any third party angle here.

[Winston Hughes]

Why are people roleclaiming? Is there any chance it will affect today's lynch? If so, I can't see it. If not, it's just plain stupid imo.

[Winston Hughes]

It looks like Monty is saying exactly what I was thinking:

Since novice is poisoned, we should let the poison play out, if possible. I don't for a second buy that he is a third party Avenger Pilot. The claim reeks of desperation.

I agree that Bsmith is our best bet today. If for some crazy reason novice is telling the truth, I find it unlikely he is going to be spared by the XCOM, assuming they have limited resources, but I don't see anyine in town lining up to have his back either. If novice lives, he's been spared by scum. That's reason enough to take him out if the poison doesn't do it for us.

Vote: Bsmith

Yeah, this makes sense.

Vote: BSmith

[Fredwood]

Could be tinfoiling a Winston Logic scum team for not seeing any benefit for scum to save novice.

Gonna tinfoil everything, it's kind of fun, but at this point just have to wait for tonight.

[Dp101]

Well this game is quiet. Given that BSmith's death is a near-certainty right now, who looks worst if we are all wrong? I want to say Monty, because I feel he has been pushing the current doctrine more that most, but I'm curious as to what other people think.

[Csargo]

Feel like novice has more scum equity than BSmith from my perspective, though I don't think it's impossible them both being scum.

Cuth is pretty much guaranteed town at this point, my brain says I'm stupid for saying that, but I think scum would be op with a dayvig and poisoner in their midst. He did poison novice though, which was a pretty strong townread he had the day before.

I think Dp101 is pretty strong town at this point as well. Plus WH makes 3 pretty strong townreads for me.

I need to iso the remaining 5, but a rough estimate now would be:

auto
Barto
Fred
Monty
Logic

[Dp101]

Huh, that was my 1001st post, I feel I should have celebrated somehow.

[Csargo]

Huh, that was my 1001st post, I feel I should have celebrated somehow.

[Csargo]

What are the likely abilities of the scum Dp101? I've never played XCOM...

[El Barto]

I've never played XCOM...

You must remedy this at once.