Germany gazing into the abyss (federal elections)

[Fragony]

Come on Fragony, admit it: however critical you might have been about her ability to handle the situation, sie hat das geschaffen.

She hasn't. She might schaff das but there are major problems. All succes-stories come from the first arivals, 3% of German's new neighbours. The rest are horny young single males who get a bit confused when they see these lovely frauleins. If it doesn't look that bad it is because it's kept out of the statistics, artificial succes, or better, a lie. Germans have to be figurants in a play, it will go the same as in Sweden if it doesn't already

[Gilrandir]

She hasn't. She might schaff das but there are major problems. All succes-stories come from the first arivals, 3% of German's new neighbours. The rest are horny young single males who get a bit confused when they see these lovely frauleins. If it doesn't look that bad it is because it's kept out of the statistics, artificial succes, or better, a lie. Germans have to be figurants in a play, it will go the same as in Sweden if it doesn't already

I have an impression that she has. The influx of immigrants (on such a scale as it used to be) has ceased, I don't hear any news of major troubles with those who are already there. Ultimately, the German voters will decide whether she hat das geschaffen or not.

[Fragony]

I have an impression that she has. The influx of immigrants (on such a scale as it used to be) has ceased, I don't hear any news of major troubles with those who are already there. Ultimately, the German voters will decide whether she hat das geschaffen or not.

Hungary has closed the Balkan-route, and Austria the meditenarian, only bebause of the Visegrad-zone Merkel can relax a bit. She knows she screwed up as she says that it must never happen again. What she got she wants the European community to fix for her but they aren't very eager to schaff das for her. Especially the visegrad-countries tell her to schaff das herself, they don't want them. The Childless mutti is stuck witb a million horny young males of which many are hobby genealogists

[Husar]

Hungary has closed the Balkan-route, and Austria the meditenarian, only bebause of the Visegrad-zone Merkel can relax a bit. She knows she screwed up as she says that it must never happen again. What she got she wants the European community to fix for her but they aren't very eager to schaff das for her. Especially the visegrad-countries tell her to schaff das herself, they don't want them. The Childless mutti is stuck witb a million horny young males of which many are hobby genealogists

Funny how that works, they didn't build any fences when their workers came here to undercut our wages, pay no taxes and rob our cars and homes. But God forbid there's an EU system that they think they don't only benefit from. Then the fences go up within days. How about we build a wall and throw all the eastern euro workers out who "stole our jobs"? If they want to play that game, we should do it, too.

[Fragony]

Funny how it works works indeed. And when you crave for a problem on top of that it should be even funnier It isn't sadly

edit, how surprising, ex'-stasi and queen of the flood Merkel wins, I wish this was only bad for Germany but Germany is basicly boss of the EU

[spmetla]

Funny how that works, they didn't build any fences when their workers came here to undercut our wages, pay no taxes and rob our cars and homes. But God forbid there's an EU system that they think they don't only benefit from. Then the fences go up within days. How about we build a wall and throw all the eastern euro workers out who "stole our jobs"? If they want to play that game, we should do it, too.

That would probably have gone over well in the mid-90s after the initial 'high' of the Mauerfall passed. Fact is though that East Europeans are culturally more similar to Germans and less likely to end up of forming cultural enclave ghettos due to easier transition into the overall society to include upward mobility. I know I've seen enough sketch comedy from Britain about all the Polish and Hungarian workers that took British jobs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd8oX5NJt84

While open borders sounds good there always needs to be a limit, if the whole of Afghanistan or Nigeria wanted to move to Germany would that be okay? Just because someone wants to move to country X doesn't mean they have a right to. Closed borders and purely ethnic criteria are equally wrong, no need to go back to the Nazi or Communist periods. It is possible to restrict the immigration of non-EU migrants without being racists. The refugee crisis does need fixing but allowing all to enter and forcing the member states to accommodate a quota of refugees isn't the answer.
Unfortunately the solution would require Germany/EU to engage in a active foreign policy in Libya and Syria which includes the possibility of military occupation/peacekeeping until security is well enough established for local governance to be effective and responsive. Leaving the security and stability of Europe's periphery to the US and Russia is obviously not working for the EU which is directly impacted.

As for the election, it will be interesting to see the SPD and AfD as the 'opposition' seeing as the SPD opted out of a Grand Coalition. I don't envision them working together much if at all but seeing German politics with less consensus and more debate will be interesting to say the least.

[Fragony]

nice and balanced

[Husar]

That would probably have gone over well in the mid-90s after the initial 'high' of the Mauerfall passed. Fact is though that East Europeans are culturally more similar to Germans and less likely to end up of forming cultural enclave ghettos due to easier transition into the overall society to include upward mobility. I know I've seen enough sketch comedy from Britain about all the Polish and Hungarian workers that took British jobs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd8oX5NJt84

While open borders sounds good there always needs to be a limit, if the whole of Afghanistan or Nigeria wanted to move to Germany would that be okay? Just because someone wants to move to country X doesn't mean they have a right to. Closed borders and purely ethnic criteria are equally wrong, no need to go back to the Nazi or Communist periods. It is possible to restrict the immigration of non-EU migrants without being racists. The refugee crisis does need fixing but allowing all to enter and forcing the member states to accommodate a quota of refugees isn't the answer.
Unfortunately the solution would require Germany/EU to engage in a active foreign policy in Libya and Syria which includes the possibility of military occupation/peacekeeping until security is well enough established for local governance to be effective and responsive. Leaving the security and stability of Europe's periphery to the US and Russia is obviously not working for the EU which is directly impacted.

As for the election, it will be interesting to see the SPD and AfD as the 'opposition' seeing as the SPD opted out of a Grand Coalition. I don't envision them working together much if at all but seeing German politics with less consensus and more debate will be interesting to say the least.

It's not just about accommodating them all, it's also about helping Italy and Greece who get "flooded" with refugees regardless of fences.
I get that we can't just invite all of Africa and the ME to come here, the problem is that if the refugees get processedby a few countries which are overwhelmed. The fence option also came a bit late once a huge number of people were already there. They had to be helped and processed by someone. And of course the xenophobic approach always "works", the more you openly hate foreigners, the easier it becomes to claim they hate you back.

It's all just more "Me, me, me, me!"

Spain also gets overrun sometimes and they resort toillegally sending people back sometimes. What would we do if we did set up refugee centers in the affected regions? Would Poland let Italy, Greece and Spain do it alone again or would they also send money and personnel? Why are they not doing it now already if they have so much better ideas?

Also the forecasts show the CDU did lose quite a few percent, AfD is third strongest.
The SPD already excluded another "big coalition" with the CDU. That leaves the so-called Jamaica-coalition of CDU, FDP and Greens as the most likely new government. If they can't reach an agreement it might get even more interesting.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/statu...469570/photo/1

edit: slightly different forecast plus article in English: http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1169587.html

[spmetla]

The processing bit is the problem, they should be sent back right to the country they departed from. If they tried to crossed over from Libya to Italy send them right back to Libya, don't even let them step foot in Italy. This would dump them in the lap of the 'smugglers' that profit from the current arrangement and kill that business line for them. The current system where they are 'rescued' just off the Libyan coast and then brought into Italy is a farce. Same goes for Morocco which tolerates the 'invasion' of the Spanish enclaves for political reasons. You don't see this problem happening in Algeria because Algeria does not tolerate it.

The bigger problem is how to stabilize Libya which needs the EU to probably invade, occupy, and then transition to self government again with all the problems of war, neo-colonialism, and violence that would entail.

The little countries are being selfish, yes, but that is their right too. Italy, Greece, and Spain shouldn't have to deal with it alone and those little countries should be contributing to a much larger and more effective FRONTEX which sends these illegal migrants right back to Turkey, Libya, and Morocco. The current solution of allowing them all in and then 'processing' them is essentially an open door because the 'processed' migrants are already let in and if deportation is determined for the individual one can only hope that they don't just go to another EU country to try again. Remember this is THE issue that essentially caused the Brexit. No migrant open door by Merkel and the Brits would more likely have elected to remain within. Understandably that's why Germany and France seek to punish the UK to discourage their recent EU joinees from leaving thereby draining it of it's cheaper Eastern Bloc labor pool.

The xenophobic approach is a reaction to poor policy. At least the political system in Germany allows a party like the AfD to do its thing. It'd be far worse if those elements high-jacked an existing party and changed it like the tea party faction did to the Republicans in the US giving us a President Trump.