Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Slaan]

This is true. It's part of why I wanted pressure on you, that the sudden twist against Barto and Manasi seemed like scraping the floor.


But now it's time to wonder what the Choxorn vs Logic means about Manasi and Barto, and the Logic wagon, and everyone else.




I'm assuming Choxorn and Logic aren't both scum. Well, it's possible but with this spread I don't want to actually analyze the whole game. Clearly Choxorn scum makes the whole wagon atp look good (especially when ruling out m/m). On the Logic wagon, these are mostly committed and long-term votes, they came out early and stuck around.

If Choxorn town and Logic scum, that makes 1 or 2 scum certain on the Choxorn wagon, coming out toward EOD. Zack and Reinoe look worst, Reinoe because he inserts himself firmly when he appears, but overall there's not much substance. So it's a good time to latch on to a counterwagon, I suppose.

Winston has been town-lean overall and not afraid to move his vote from time to time, so he is better left until after the flip.
Csargo coming out agreeing to Pizza's schedule, the latest Logic vote.
Barto, Cuth, Xiahou, Manasi, Fredwood, so far off-wagon.


Now quickly, what if both Logic and Choxorn are town? 2 off-wagon scum makes sense in that case, and 1 on the major wagons to make a team of 3 or 4 would be the perfect spread. How people have been pushing each other becomes very important in this case, since scum are most likely well-distributed and lower-activity. Maybe in that case Zack or GH feinted at Barto and Manasi to leave a distancing mark. Leave this for night talk.


I think we should try to set up a tie between Choxorn and Logic and see who manipulates the tie, since scum often get caught this way. Pizza, in the best version of today your Logic case is like your novice case from the end of D1 XCOM, and Tdome around novice is how we got Manasi outed, and the Tdome around Manasi is how we got BSmith outed...

So let's get this tied up into the end stretch

I don't like this. Wagonomics are iffy as is, preflip wagonomics is a bullshit science and I don't agree with most points being raised here. With Logics weak play so far most mafia would probably just bus here, same if Chox is mafia. They can also very well both be mafia, don't see why not. If we have a deepwolf in the making he wouldnt try to save either of them and just bus since there are no investigative roles that could be dangerous to him.

We can try for the tie but again, unlikely that a wolf would at this point brazenly try to save a buddy.... well he might just because I just said that I'd find that unlikely etc etc. There is nothing to be gained by trying to artificially create a certain gamestate and hope a mafia outs himself... that just doesnt happen in my experience.

So your post is one that seems solvey but isnt and that's wolfy in my book.

[Slaan]

I'm not going to comment on pizzas last post >_<

[Montmorency]

I don't like this. Wagonomics are iffy as is, preflip wagonomics is a bullshit science and I don't agree with most points being raised here. With Logics weak play so far most mafia would probably just bus here, same if Chox is mafia. They can also very well both be mafia, don't see why not. If we have a deepwolf in the making he wouldnt try to save either of them and just bus since there are no investigative roles that could be dangerous to him.

We can try for the tie but again, unlikely that a wolf would at this point brazenly try to save a buddy.... well he might just because I just said that I'd find that unlikely etc etc. There is nothing to be gained by trying to artificially create a certain gamestate and hope a mafia outs himself... that just doesnt happen in my experience.

So your post is one that seems solvey but isnt and that's wolfy in my book.

Fair enough, but think of it this way: if it were already a tie, how would that affect your "pre-flip wagonomics" (since obviously we all have to take it into consideration, which doesn't mean we're making definitive statements, just listing possibilities to compare against future events)?

[Zack]

is it too late for a cfd to monty?

[Montmorency]

is it too late for a cfd to monty?

Go for it.

[Zack]

Go for it.

Vote: Montmorency

[Kagemusha]

More posts i read from this Slaander fellow. Better i statt to like about his way of thinking.

[Slaan]

More posts i read from this Slaander fellow. Better i statt to like about his way of thinking.

Don't slaander me :(

[Slaan]

Fair enough, but think of it this way: if it were already a tie, how would that affect your "pre-flip wagonomics" (since obviously we all have to take it into consideration, which doesn't mean we're making definitive statements, just listing possibilities to compare against future events)?

I wouldnt comment on it. To say what I except a mafia to do will invalidate everything anyone does as this thought will be in everyones mind.

'mafia would save a buddy here'
'mafia would bus here'

All this influences how a mafia (and even townies) will play and give us false positives as it forces ppl to player differently than they usually would. That doesnt affect me much since I don't have meta but on principle I dont like it. Analyse how votes were cast the next day if it's just about the vote itself and not the progression.

[Montmorency]

I wouldnt comment on it. To say what I except a mafia to do will invalidate everything anyone does as this thought will be in everyones mind.

'mafia would save a buddy here'
'mafia would bus here'

All this influences how a mafia (and even townies) will play and give us false positives as it forces ppl to player differently than they usually would. That doesnt affect me much since I don't have meta but on principle I dont like it. Analyse how votes were cast the next day if it's just about the vote itself and not the progression.

I don't think it's true to any great extent, unless you assume that voicing possibilities in-thread about what Mafia are thinking will lead Mafia to go, "Doh, I can't believe we didn't consider that, let's do it immediately", or otherwise change their calculations dramatically.

[Zack]

[Zack]

[Slaan]

Probably most important wagons rn:

Logic (7): Pizza, Dp101, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha, Winston Hughes, Csargo

Monty (1): Zack

Choxorn (4): Montmorency, GH, Reinoe, Logic

[Zack]

[Slaan]

I don't think it's true to any great extent, unless you assume that voicing possibilities in-thread about what Mafia are thinking will lead Mafia to go, "Doh, I can't believe we didn't consider that, let's do it immediately", or otherwise change their calculations dramatically.

Not about what they're thinking now but about what they would do in the future.

[Montmorency]

Not about what they're thinking now but about what they would do in the future.

Can you elaborate?

[Slaan]

Can you elaborate?

... tomorrow. This is not a conversation for the last 10min of EoD with a possible CFD ^^