Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
Re-entry phase interception is viable only with a relatively limited number of targets, I concur. This limited character would be true of an NK attack, however. Unless and until the NK's build up a force capable of lobbing hundreds of warheads and even more decoys at the same time and basic target window.

This presumes that there are enough resources to pre-position ABM systems in the appropriate target spots. Re-entry phase interception would not be workable if out of position.


The better choice WOULD be a boost phase intercept, with the ABMs striking downward from satellite launch platforms prior to burnout and warhead separation (once they develop MIRV capability). This approach would, of course, mean that a spaced base system would need to be in place in advance of such an attack and such a system would be politically problematic given the loose definition of WMDs (the deployment of which to orbit is prohibited by the Space Treaty).

I'm hopeful that our Vandenberg shuttles have been deploying a robust orbital ABM system for some time....but I have heard no such rumors.
Ignoring the less-advanced and lower-range missiles targeting South Korea, Japan, and others in the Pacific - with even a handful of ICBMs, one has to assume something will be detonating over the American mainland. The odds of how optimal for the North the altitudes of detonation, are probably unknowable for us. Clearly the performance of defense systems would have to be much better than we've heard of in tests so far.

Revealing space-based missiles in the event of a North Korean launch would be a disaster. Not only would we be shown to have fully violated international laws, our adversaries would have a window before we could re-arm the satellites - at which point they could emplace their counterparts, among other things. And we would deserve all the repercussions.

As nukes are weapons of terror and not of war, even the very good scenario of a few thousand casualties and a few temporary evacuations owing to fallout would shatter our psyche more than any multiples of 9/11. You can bet on martial law, at least.