Turkish Election Results and Implication

[Gilrandir]

Leaving aside Ukraine, the small Caucasian and Central Asian countries around Russia are either friendly to its interests, or else easily pushed around with threats or economic sticks and carrots. The Georgia war is a teaching moment. Turkey, meanwhile, has poorer relations and territorial claims with just about all of its neighbors, as well as non-state threats. Knowing that, we can move on to identifying the two countries interests, desires, and constraints. The relevance to Western interests, desires, and constraints. Russia the revisionist state, or Turkey the rogue state?

And I'm more interested in the realistic manifestation of drift in policy and on the ground, not the extreme one. Like, Russia reconquering the Soviet Union or Turkey invading Greece on the way to Warsaw (with Syrian Arab Janissaries at the vanguard!).

In 2013 an attempt to conquer Ukraine seemed an extreme fantasy, not only to the world, but to Ukraine and Russia as well. Not so in 2014 and later. When the whole country is governed by whims of a single person the incredible may come true. If Putin's counterparts in Belorus or Kazakhstan step down (or die which is more likely) and the new leaders displease Russia, it may repeat its Crimean/Donbas scenario.