Trump Thread

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

European Union members / NATO members that overlap will not support a war, that's very clear.

They may not have a choice.

[edyzmedieval]

They will, no one wants to go in a war with Iran. Nobody.

On top of that, Iran has the 14th most powerful military in the world, so any attempt (yes, just the attempt) of a war is gonna be extremely costly in all terms.

[Pannonian]

They may not have a choice.

Why not? We left the EU because we were being dictated to by other countries, didn't we?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

They will, no one wants to go in a war with Iran. Nobody.

On top of that, Iran has the 14th most powerful military in the world, so any attempt (yes, just the attempt) of a war is gonna be extremely costly in all terms.

On papa Iran has a large army, and it's likely to be well motivated - better than Saddam's in 1991. However, their Air Force is a full generation or more behind the American one and they have no Navy to speak of. A shooting war would begin with a comprehensive bombing campaign and air war that eliminated Iran's remaining air forces, missile forces, rail network and munitions dumps in that order. By the time the American and Iranian armed forces came to grips with each other the latter would be suffering major supply shortages and comprehensive lack of support.

America is very good at prosecuting a conventional war, it's asymmetric warfare they struggle with.

As to invoking the NATO charter - it depends on whether Iran escalates as they've threatened to.

Why not? We left the EU because we were being dictated to by other countries, didn't we?

Are we proposing to leave NATO?

[Pannonian]

Are we proposing to leave NATO?

What has this to do with NATO?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

What has this to do with NATO?

You replied to my comment which was a reply to Edzy.

NATO is America's alliance of its vassals where it uses said vassals to legitimise its wars, been that way for decades.

[Pannonian]

You replied to my comment which was a reply to Edzy.

NATO is America's alliance of its vassals where it uses said vassals to legitimise its wars, been that way for decades.

How does the UK not have a choice? If we don't have a choice because we're in NATO, will you and others be campaigning to leave NATO? After all, foreign countries telling us what to do was why we left the EU. Does the sovereignty argument not apply when it's Washington ordering us around?

[Montmorency]

Are we proposing to leave NATO?

What would stop NATO members from contributing token forces according to their view of the direction and degree of aggression between parties?

If someone thinks Turkey, for example, will subject itself to a ground war with Iran for Trump's sake, they've got another thing coming.

[Pannonian]

What would stop NATO members from contributing token forces according to their view of the direction and degree of aggression between parties?

If someone thinks Turkey, for example, will subject itself to a ground war with Iran for Trump's sake, they've got another thing coming.

NATO members aren't obliged to join in anyway. The treaty applies to North America and Europe.

[Greyblades]

I am suprised the man was stupid enough to leave Iran considering how much of a high value target he was. The timing is rather opportune as well; coming in so soon after the Iranian uprising.

[Crandar]

It's basically his job to be out of Iran. He has made several public appearances in Syria and Iraq before.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

How does the UK not have a choice? If we don't have a choice because we're in NATO, will you and others be campaigning to leave NATO? After all, foreign countries telling us what to do was why we left the EU. Does the sovereignty argument not apply when it's Washington ordering us around?

NATO members aren't obliged to join in anyway. The treaty applies to North America and Europe.

If Iran retaliates by, say, launching a cyber attack on the US National Grid, shuts down the Eastern Seaboard and people die - that will be considered an attack against NATO. Likewise, if Iran launches assassinations of US military personnel in Europe that will be considered an attack against NATO.

If the US invokes Article Five then the European nations will have no choice but to go along because without the US we cannot collectively oppose Russia - certain key members are not meeting their basic commitments, and others are about to be kicked out.

Hence "no choice".

This is completely different to the EU, which is a political project that the majority of voters rejected - i.e. federalisation.

[Furunculus]

Useful insight:

https://mobile.twitter.com/cdrsalama...47638170382337

[Seamus Fermanagh]

If Iran retaliates by, say, launching a cyber attack on the US National Grid, shuts down the Eastern Seaboard and people die - that will be considered an attack against NATO. Likewise, if Iran launches assassinations of US military personnel in Europe that will be considered an attack against NATO.

If the US invokes Article Five then the European nations will have no choice but to go along because without the US we cannot collectively oppose Russia - certain key members are not meeting their basic commitments, and others are about to be kicked out.

Hence "no choice".

This is completely different to the EU, which is a political project that the majority of voters rejected - i.e. federalisation.

I do not think we have the "smoking gun" needed for an article 5 against Iran. We'd have to show Iranian material support for a terrorist organization that directly attacked one of the member states. Such evidence might exist, but...

[Pannonian]

If Iran retaliates by, say, launching a cyber attack on the US National Grid, shuts down the Eastern Seaboard and people die - that will be considered an attack against NATO. Likewise, if Iran launches assassinations of US military personnel in Europe that will be considered an attack against NATO.

If the US invokes Article Five then the European nations will have no choice but to go along because without the US we cannot collectively oppose Russia - certain key members are not meeting their basic commitments, and others are about to be kicked out.

Hence "no choice".

This is completely different to the EU, which is a political project that the majority of voters rejected - i.e. federalisation.

Has there been any evidence that that will happen? I suppose if Iran makes Sol go supernova, then it would count as affecting North America and Europe too.

Also, isn't NATO a defensive alliance?