Climate Change Thread

[Greyblades]

I find the idea that an extinct significantly deadly disease ended up all the way up in a pre-industry permanently frozen part of the arctic somewhat dubious.

Then again, some unlucky medieval ice harvester croaking of the plague mid job and ending up in a glacier somewhere, that seems pretty believable.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I find the idea that an extinct significantly deadly disease ended up all the way up in a pre-industry permanently frozen part of the arctic somewhat dubious.

Then again, some unlucky medieval ice harvester croaking of the plague mid job and ending up in a glacier somewhere, that seems pretty believable.

You are presuming that the recorded medieval outbreaks of these diseases were their inception points. Viruses, in particular, are known to be able to survive inordinate periods of time. Who is to say that the medieval instances of these disease were their first time winging about the world?

[Greyblades]

I was commenting more on the location than the time period: a usually livestock derived virus ending up in the remote areas of the arctic that didnt thaw before modern times? Anyone know how often eskimos encountered these diseases?

In comparison a human from a agricultural society tooling about a glacier and falling in while infected is a lot more likely.

[Pannonian]

I was commenting more on the location than the time period: a usually livestock derived virus ending up in the remote areas of the arctic that didnt thaw before modern times? Anyone know how often eskimos encountered these diseases?

In comparison a human from a agricultural society tooling about a glacier and falling in while infected is a lot more likely.

Didn't the Black Death originate in the steppes of Mongolia, where there are still occasional cases of bubonic plague?

You are presuming that the recorded medieval outbreaks of these diseases were their inception points. Viruses, in particular, are known to be able to survive inordinate periods of time. Who is to say that the medieval instances of these disease were their first time winging about the world?

There's at least one case of bacteria surviving the vacuum of space.

[Greyblades]

Didn't the Black Death originate in the steppes of Mongolia, where there are still occasional cases of bubonic plague?

The origining disease I think; the major outbreak however was in China, beijing specifically. We can blame the mongols for its ease of infection though thier conquests causing major famines throughout the region and the silk road gave it a vector into europe.



Europe was going through its own famines due to a climate change between the medieval warm period and the little ice age, hence why it turned into such a massive culling.

I wouldnt be suprised if mongolia did originate it what with their historical nomadic lifestyle, make sense they still have outbreaks now and then due to thier 30% still nomadic population, lot of horses camels and cattle in close proximity when on the steppe.

[Pannonian]

The origining disease I think; the major outbreak however was in China, beijing specifically. We can blame the mongols for its ease of infection though thier conquests causing major famines throughout the region and the silk road gave it a vector into europe.



Europe was going through its own famines due to a climate change between the medieval warm period and the little ice age, hence why it turned into such a massive culling.

I wouldnt be suprised if mongolia did originate it what with their historical nomadic lifestyle, make sense they still have outbreaks now and then due to thier 30% still nomadic population, lot of horses camels and cattle in close proximity when on the steppe.

The last I read about it the bubonic plague originated from rodents living on the steppes. A quick look at wiki suggests it's still the current theory. What it shows is that diseases deadly to humans can exist outside human spheres, and every now and then resumes contact. And we know of at least one instance of bacteria surviving the near-absolute zero of extra-planetary vacuum.

[Shaka_Khan]

I find the idea that an extinct significantly deadly disease ended up all the way up in a pre-industry permanently frozen part of the arctic somewhat dubious.

Then again, some unlucky medieval ice harvester croaking of the plague mid job and ending up in a glacier somewhere, that seems pretty believable.

Water can flow. It doesn't always stay in one place. And the Arctic isn't the only place with ancient ice. There's ancient ice on the mountaintops at mountain ranges such as the Himalayas and the Alps. And remember that certain regions used to be much warmer long long time ago such as Antarctica.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Water can flow. It doesn't always stay in one place. And the Arctic isn't the only place with ancient ice. There's ancient ice on the mountaintops at mountain ranges such as the Himalayas and the Alps. And remember that certain regions used to be much warmer long long time ago such as Antarctica.

Ah, but what diseases?

Most of the truly dangerous diseases have developed in the last 1500 years, Bubonic Plague has crossed the species barrier at least twice, once during the Plague of Justinian and once during the Black Death, Syphilis is 500 years old, Cholera perhaps a little less, Smallpox 300, Spanish Flu a bit over a century, HIV and Ebola less than that SARS and Corona-virus are only decades old.

Dangerous diseases are mostly the result of something crossing a species barrier, that usually means close proximity to animals, and most truly dangerous diseases are not water or airborne because if they were both deadly and easily transmittable we would all be dead.

So, it is unlikely there is anything waiting in the Arctic Permafrost from before the icecaps formed, the worst we're likely to see is a resurgence of a known disease from the medieval or post-medieval period from the Alps and most of those are very treatable.

There's a lot to worry about with climate change, but this is a long way down the list.

[Montmorency]

What to worry about with disease and climate change: Degradation of healthcare systems under conditions of climate stress, population movement, and disrupted supply chains for drugs, supplies, and equipment.

Insects and parasites as disease vectors will also become more intense and widespread.

It's also always possible that a significant bacterial pandemic spreads at the culmination of antibiotics attrition and bureaucratic mismanagement of emergency protocols. China's massive quarantines in this ongoing Coronavirus outbreak indicate either, to my knowledge, an uncommonly decisive application of caution on the government's part, or the assessed magnitude of the circumstances.

[Greyblades]

Must be quite the epidemic to make even the notoriously inattentive PRC so proactive.

Water can flow. It doesn't always stay in one place. And the Arctic isn't the only place with ancient ice. There's ancient ice on the mountaintops at mountain ranges such as the Himalayas and the Alps. And remember that certain regions used to be much warmer long long time ago such as Antarctica.

Hence why I mentioned the glaciers as more likely; the areas in the arctic permanently frozen arent habitable to most carriers of human transferable disease and humanity hasnt been around so long as to have seen the land of the poles being anything other than cold.

[Pannonian]

Must be quite the epidemic to make even the notoriously inattentive PRC so proactive.

Hence why I mentioned the glaciers as more likely; the areas in the arctic permanently frozen arent habitable to most carriers of human transferable disease and humanity hasnt been around so long as to have seen the land of the poles being anything other than cold.

The PRC are notoriously inattentive? They're the torch carriers for science running government, regardless of humanity.

[Montmorency]

The PRC are notoriously inattentive? They're the torch carriers for science running government, regardless of humanity.

*Chinese laughter*

Demand for traditional Chinese medicine continues to grow in the western world. The lack of evidence-based testing in the sector is a worry, however – as is the political pressure that seems to be driving its aggressive expansion

Selling people on the idea that ancient practices are somehow superior – in the absence of any real evidence – may cause people to suffer unnecessary pain and even permanent disability.” But there are powerful engines in play to make us believe otherwise, for there are billions of dollars to be made from alternative therapies. Accordingly, the market is now expanding at a rapid rate, not just in western countries among educated, high-income individuals, but also in developing nations as a far cheaper option for proper medical care. Aristolochic acid is the embodiment of the dangers that alternative medicines pose. Unfortunately, however, in the battle for global health, the opposing side has a great deal at stake. In addition to the formidable financial incentives for growing the TCM market, there are strong political motivations also. Indeed, it would seem that TCM is currently being used as a political tool – a marker of China’s growing prestige and authority around the globe. The WHO’s worrying actions seem to attest to this.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has been expanding at a notable rate as of late: in 2016, the sector grossed CNY 860bn ($130bn), then expanded a further 20 percent throughout 2017, according to China Daily. A similar pattern can be seen overseas, too: according to Nature, a weekly science journal, the selling of TCM and other related products to One Belt One Road countries has surged. Between the years 2016 and 2017, exports experienced a whopping 54 percent growth to $295m. Indeed, according to the National Centre for Biotechnology Information, China exported TCM to 185 countries and regions around the world in 2016, with $526m worth exported the US alone – making up 15 percent of China’s annual TCM exports at the time.
[...]
The Chinese Government – specifically, President Xi Jinping – is consciously driving the expansion of the TCM market at present. This became all too clear in a speech he gave in spring 2018, during which he also outlined plans to stay on as premier indefinitely. According to sources familiar with the matter, he devoted at least half an hour of his speech strictly to TCM, and explained there was no need to test the efficacy and toxicity of such treatments. The president also revealed a key stratagem in the market’s global expansion: the opening of some 300 TCM centres in various countries around the world. Domestic TCM centres, meanwhile, continue to attract more visitors to China, effectively becoming medical tourism hotspots. Since 2002, for example, some 50,000 foreigners (the majority being from Russian-speaking nations) have visited Sanya, a city in China’s Hainan province, for TCM treatments. Clearly, there is a strong financial incentive for promoting TCM around the globe.
[...]
Moreover, Xi’s TCM ambitions have a strong political component. Dr Donald Marcus, Professor of Medicine and Immunology Emeritus at the Baylor College of Medicine, told World Finance: “He’s pushing it very hard for two reasons. One, he’s on a campaign to promote China as a great power and a source of all kinds of wonderful cultural and scientific things. He’s also facing the same problem that Chairman Mao faced, which is that they don’t have enough western-trained doctors to take care of a huge Chinese population, so they’re promoting the idea that TCM is just as good.” He added: “So it’s part of this nationalism push, but also, they’re making a lot of money with it.” Africa, a continent that has a growing dependency on China, is one of the main targets for China’s plans.
[...]
“Insofar as it is being adopted, the impetus to try comes from clever marketing and does not come from any evidence whatsoever that TCM is scientifically sound or medically effective,” said Dr Steven L Salzberg, Professor of Biomedical Engineering, Computer Science and Biostatistics at Johns Hopkins University. Sadly, by using TCM, unknowing patients are less likely to seek proven treatments, which could in turn worsen their respective ailments. But this tragic tale does not end there. Aristolochic acid, which is derived from aristolochia, a large plant genus, is a common ingredient that has been used in Chinese herbal remedies for thousands of years. Following an outbreak in the Balkans in the late 1950s, it was discovered that not only does aristolochic acid trigger nephropathy, or kidney failure – it can also cause cancer. “The International Agency for Research on Cancer has said it’s one of the most potent carcinogens in humans, but what we didn’t know until this century was just how big a problem it is in places like China and Taiwan, where aristolochic acid is used,” Marcus told World Finance. “Several studies that were done in Taiwan and China in this century found that close to 50 percent of kidney tissues from patients with kidney failure or cancer had the molecular signature of aristolochic acid nephropathy,” Marcus explained. “Those data indicate that tens of millions of people in Asia are at risk for aristolochic acid nephropathy.” While many websites in China once brandished warnings about the dangers of aristolochia, it has been noted that within just weeks of Xi’s aforementioned speech, they had all disappeared.
[...]
Last year, the World Health Organisation (WHO) revealed that, by 2022, TCM would be included in its 11th International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems. According to the organisation’s website, the document is “the diagnostic classification standard for all clinical and research purposes”. The work also sets the healthcare agenda for more than 100 nations worldwide. For China’s burgeoning TCM market, this is massive news. It marks the first time that TCM will be recognised by an international body with the prestige of the WHO. It also sets a scene wherein TCM is more commonly used as ‘acceptable’ treatment for various diseases. And yet, there is little to no evidence of the effectiveness, or even simply the safety, of many of the treatments offered by TCM. This is all the more surprising given the high standard of testing that the WHO usually requires. When asked what the WHO could possibly be thinking with such an extraordinary divergence from its standard procedures, Salzberg answered: “The WHO’s endorsement of TCM seems to be the culmination of a campaign by one person – its former director – who mistakenly believes (or seems to believe) that TCM is real medicine.” He is referring to Margaret Chan, who was director of the WHO between 2006 and 2017. “I don’t understand her motives, but scientifically speaking, she’s mistaken.”
[...]
Among the scientific community, it is widely acknowledged that aristolochia is a powerful carcinogen, which can also cause irreversible kidney damage. But despite the fact that around 400 papers attesting this had been published by 2014, there is not a single mention of aristolochia in the WHO’s strategic report from the same year. Aside from Xi’s assertion that TCMs need not be tested, as well as the WHO’s glaring omission, matters are made even worse by the fact that labels on TCM products are often incomplete, failing to list all ingredients included. This is particularly worrying given the ubiquity of aristolochia and its horrendous side effects.

How difficult it should be to think, with all the history behind us, that autocrats are more likely to be steely-eyed scientific rationalists than politically-correct wagermakers.

[Pannonian]

*Chinese laughter*







How difficult it should be to think, with all the history behind us, that autocrats are more likely to be steely-eyed scientific rationalists than politically-correct wagermakers.

You're looking at the wrong metrics. Nationalism is the political drive of the Chinese government. It's their way of controlling the populace with their take on culture (see also their depiction of Japan as an enemy).

[Montmorency]

You're looking at the wrong metrics. Nationalism is the political drive of the Chinese government. It's their way of controlling the populace with their take on culture (see also their depiction of Japan as an enemy).

Which metrics are you thinking of?

[Greyblades]

The PRC are notoriously inattentive? They're the torch carriers for science running government, regardless of humanity.

My impression of china comes from a youtube channel called ADV China; a series made by an american and a south african who lived around about 10-20 years in china until a year or two ago. Thier content has taken a massive turn towards the negative but before they left the jurisdiction of the chinese censors they had to maintain a neutral tone which didnt stop them showing the negative side of china; they were the ones that popularized china's "ghost cities".

Point being even before they turned they were giving the impression that the chinese system had a massive problem with a "dont rock the boat" mentality and thier most recent videos on the coronavirus portrays it as a consequence of this; preventative measures and forwarning being suppressed. Yes there are the secret police and party politic types but also the local politicians who are massively incentivised to downplay and suppress knowledge of the situation because they are the ones that are low enough on the totem pole to get it in the neck when things get out of control.

Remember the guys who were in denial over the reactor explosion in the Chernobyl series even when the wreckage was littering the area? Thats what I think is happening in China right now, doesnt matter if they are a science-running-government-over-humanity society if the people on the ground are prone to suppressing important information out of fear of being held responsible.

China is inattentive, unwittingly so.

[a completely inoffensive name]

My impression of china comes from a youtube channel called ADV China; a series made by an american and a south african who lived around about 10-20 years in china until a year or two ago. Thier content has taken a massive turn towards the negative but before they left the jurisdiction of the chinese censors they had to maintain a neutral tone which didnt stop them showing the negative side of china; they were the ones that popularized china's "ghost cities".

Point being even before they turned they were giving the impression that the chinese system had a massive problem with a "dont rock the boat" mentality and thier most recent videos on the coronavirus portrays it as a consequence of this; preventative measures and forwarning being suppressed. Yes there are the secret police and party politic types but also the local politicians who are massively incentivised to downplay and suppress knowledge of the situation because they are the ones that are low enough on the totem pole to get it in the neck when things get out of control.

Remember the guys who were in denial over the reactor explosion in the Chernobyl series even when the wreckage was littering the area? Thats what I think is happening in China right now, doesnt matter if they are a science-running-government-over-humanity society if the people on the ground are prone to suppressing important information out of fear of being held responsible.

China is inattentive, unwittingly so.

This is close to the truth. China's government responses quickly and boldly and their planning possibly gives them a degree of tunnel vision.

Unanticipated incidents show how un-scientific their managerial structure is. scientific forethought would have led to the banning of wildlife markets a long time ago, SARS should have been the end of it back in the early 2000s.

Quarantine 30 million people in 2020, kill 2/3rd of all pigs in 2019, These are signs of weak systems if they need to go to such extremes.

[Shaka_Khan]

Also, that Communist Party exacerbated the problem by hiding the outbreak and arresting the doctors who tried to alert the public back in December. Even today, the numbers are underreported partly because there aren't enough medical supplies to test all of the patients. And that government is using scapegoats to get the blame away from itself.

The way I look at it, this has already reached the epidemic level and will eventually spread around the world like the common flu unless drastic measures are taken. These drastic measures include banning travel between more infected countries, which is something that WHO doesn't recommend (yet?). Some of the countries were also late in containing the spread, and I fear that we might see those regions become epidemic regions in the near future.

This shows how vulnerable the world is to an epidemic. I'm afraid of what might happen if an epidemic of a more dangerous virus begins.