Climate Change Thread

[Greyblades]

The PRC are notoriously inattentive? They're the torch carriers for science running government, regardless of humanity.

My impression of china comes from a youtube channel called ADV China; a series made by an american and a south african who lived around about 10-20 years in china until a year or two ago. Thier content has taken a massive turn towards the negative but before they left the jurisdiction of the chinese censors they had to maintain a neutral tone which didnt stop them showing the negative side of china; they were the ones that popularized china's "ghost cities".

Point being even before they turned they were giving the impression that the chinese system had a massive problem with a "dont rock the boat" mentality and thier most recent videos on the coronavirus portrays it as a consequence of this; preventative measures and forwarning being suppressed. Yes there are the secret police and party politic types but also the local politicians who are massively incentivised to downplay and suppress knowledge of the situation because they are the ones that are low enough on the totem pole to get it in the neck when things get out of control.

Remember the guys who were in denial over the reactor explosion in the Chernobyl series even when the wreckage was littering the area? Thats what I think is happening in China right now, doesnt matter if they are a science-running-government-over-humanity society if the people on the ground are prone to suppressing important information out of fear of being held responsible.

China is inattentive, unwittingly so.

[a completely inoffensive name]

My impression of china comes from a youtube channel called ADV China; a series made by an american and a south african who lived around about 10-20 years in china until a year or two ago. Thier content has taken a massive turn towards the negative but before they left the jurisdiction of the chinese censors they had to maintain a neutral tone which didnt stop them showing the negative side of china; they were the ones that popularized china's "ghost cities".

Point being even before they turned they were giving the impression that the chinese system had a massive problem with a "dont rock the boat" mentality and thier most recent videos on the coronavirus portrays it as a consequence of this; preventative measures and forwarning being suppressed. Yes there are the secret police and party politic types but also the local politicians who are massively incentivised to downplay and suppress knowledge of the situation because they are the ones that are low enough on the totem pole to get it in the neck when things get out of control.

Remember the guys who were in denial over the reactor explosion in the Chernobyl series even when the wreckage was littering the area? Thats what I think is happening in China right now, doesnt matter if they are a science-running-government-over-humanity society if the people on the ground are prone to suppressing important information out of fear of being held responsible.

China is inattentive, unwittingly so.

This is close to the truth. China's government responses quickly and boldly and their planning possibly gives them a degree of tunnel vision.

Unanticipated incidents show how un-scientific their managerial structure is. scientific forethought would have led to the banning of wildlife markets a long time ago, SARS should have been the end of it back in the early 2000s.

Quarantine 30 million people in 2020, kill 2/3rd of all pigs in 2019, These are signs of weak systems if they need to go to such extremes.

[Shaka_Khan]

Also, that Communist Party exacerbated the problem by hiding the outbreak and arresting the doctors who tried to alert the public back in December. Even today, the numbers are underreported partly because there aren't enough medical supplies to test all of the patients. And that government is using scapegoats to get the blame away from itself.

The way I look at it, this has already reached the epidemic level and will eventually spread around the world like the common flu unless drastic measures are taken. These drastic measures include banning travel between more infected countries, which is something that WHO doesn't recommend (yet?). Some of the countries were also late in containing the spread, and I fear that we might see those regions become epidemic regions in the near future.

This shows how vulnerable the world is to an epidemic. I'm afraid of what might happen if an epidemic of a more dangerous virus begins.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Also, that Communist Party exacerbated the problem by hiding the outbreak and arresting the doctors who tried to alert the public back in December. Even today, the numbers are underreported partly because there aren't enough medical supplies to test all of the patients. And that government is using scapegoats to get the blame away from itself.

The way I look at it, this has already reached the epidemic level and will eventually spread around the world like the common flu unless drastic measures are taken. These drastic measures include banning travel between more infected countries, which is something that WHO doesn't recommend (yet?). Some of the countries were also late in containing the spread, and I fear that we might see those regions become epidemic regions in the near future.

This shows how vulnerable the world is to an epidemic. I'm afraid of what might happen if an epidemic of a more dangerous virus begins.

It would be bad, but likely less bad than the flu outbreak at the end of WW1. Our ability to support patients and mitigate symptoms allows us to minimize death-rates from any naturally occurring virus. Not that it still wouldn't suck, just saying that a Black Death levels of casualties are unlikely outside of Central Africa or Indonesia.

Particularly deadly viruses tend to burn out faster as the hosts' deaths minimize the ability of the infection to spread. Viruses that have mutated to insure massive spread (like Rhinoviruses) tend to be less virulent.

It would take a multi-layer engineered virus to have the kind of earth-changing effect you fear.

[Montmorency]

It would be bad, but likely less bad than the flu outbreak at the end of WW1. Our ability to support patients and mitigate symptoms allows us to minimize death-rates from any naturally occurring virus. Not that it still wouldn't suck, just saying that a Black Death levels of casualties are unlikely outside of Central Africa or Indonesia.

Particularly deadly viruses tend to burn out faster as the hosts' deaths minimize the ability of the infection to spread. Viruses that have mutated to insure massive spread (like Rhinoviruses) tend to be less virulent.

It would take a multi-layer engineered virus to have the kind of earth-changing effect you fear.

Remember that up to a quarter of the global population was infected by the Spanish Flu. A quarter of the current global population would be ~2 billion. Superior medical infrastructure is moot at the point where it becomes overwhelmed by numbers.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Remember that up to a quarter of the global population was infected by the Spanish Flu. A quarter of the current global population would be ~2 billion. Superior medical infrastructure is moot at the point where it becomes overwhelmed by numbers.

Tamiflu, intravenous hydration, steroids for immunomodulation, anti-biotics to combat piggy-back infenctions...

I am not saying it would be fun, and many would die, I am only asserting that death rates would not approach Spanish Flu, much less Black Death, proportions. Except, of course, in Central Africa, Indonesia, and possibly the Indian subcontinent. Their populations and available health system support might be overwhelmed as you suggest.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

It would be bad, but likely less bad than the flu outbreak at the end of WW1. Our ability to support patients and mitigate symptoms allows us to minimize death-rates from any naturally occurring virus. Not that it still wouldn't suck, just saying that a Black Death levels of casualties are unlikely outside of Central Africa or Indonesia.

Particularly deadly viruses tend to burn out faster as the hosts' deaths minimize the ability of the infection to spread. Viruses that have mutated to insure massive spread (like Rhinoviruses) tend to be less virulent.

It would take a multi-layer engineered virus to have the kind of earth-changing effect you fear.

It's worth pointing out that as bad as the Black Death was it didn't actually cause societal collapse - nor did the Flu, even the Plague od Justinian was a one-two-three punch with sudden climate change and external invasions.

On the other hand, so long as humanity continues to overpopulate the planet we are playing Russian Roulette with disease - eventually one will come along that does cause societal collapse.

[CrossLOPER]

It's worth pointing out that as bad as the Black Death was it didn't actually cause societal collapse

I can guarantee you that, with all the specialization and global reliance present in the world right now, a 30-60% loss in human population was cause societal collapse. The loss of supply routes would lead to implosions in various sectors of human civilization which would probably lead to further death. It is not entirely impossible that the human race would either go extinct or regress to a more primitive state.

It's much worse because fewer people (especially in more developed nations)0 know anything about tool use, farming or general survival practices.

[Shaka_Khan]

If the current outbreak continues to get worse, and studies show that it looks like it will continue for a long time, then I predict a great big rise in mask companies' and indoor-activity-providing companies' stocks (such as Amazon, Netflix indoor game companies, etc). Some (actually I think a lot of) the other companies will fall (and some are already falling). (Don't get me wrong. I hope everyone stays safe). To put it simply, I think there might be a big change in the way we live for a long time. We were already heading towards that direction before the outbreak. A lot of the malls already closed down, and less people went to the cinemas for example.