Coronavirus / COVID-19

[Beskar]

I have seen a few Rory-esque memes around. A few are regarding this as "Boomer flu" since it only really has the worst affects on the older population. So there are Memes about Boris Johnson seeing this as an opportunity to fix the NHS and Social Care budgets and the like. Another about how young people will get access to affordable housing again, etc.

Whilst this is Gallows humour, as no one in their right mind would call for an agisticide in good conscience.

[Gilrandir]

To make a general point, it's recommended to have 1-2 weeks of food stored in case of emergency. Also phrased as supplies for sheltering in place up to 2 weeks, as in this federal document titled Если завтра война

I'm confident Ukraine's emergency services make similar recommendations. Check.

They did it in 2009 when H1N1 (or what was its name) was reported to be ravaging like there's no tomorrow. And it turned out to have been blown out of proportions. The same as with that corona thing, I believe.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Well, the finger-pointing war has officially begun:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-...-says/12055278



And sometimes I'm ashamed to be a member of the human race:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-...lians/11918962

[Greyblades]

Its a unjust that the entirety of the nationality would be blamed for the consequences of the culnary practices of rural china and the inaction of the small cadre of party members that run china's communist government.

Thank goodness that the racist attacks only consist of very mild comments and rude waiters.

[Montmorency]

Jack Ma the Chinese billionaire is donating us half a million test kits and a million masks. Goddamnit, we are so bad at this.

[From yesterday] We're following Italy's trajectory in confirmed cases so far, despite the differences in population and in testing per capita. This is going to explode to a million cases by the end of April, isn't it? Particularly as mass testing begins in earnest (see post below).





Read these horrifying two stories of people struggling to get tested despite being.....

Chaser:

I'm presenting mild symptoms (headache, mild fever, mild cough) and want to get tested in north Jersey. Primary care tells me to go to ER. ER tells me to call city health dept. Health dept tells me to go to urgent care. Urgent care tells me to go to ER. Everyone says no tests.

Uppercut:

I learned today that my daughter-in-law, her husband, and their infant child are sick. Her husband works with someone who recently stopped over in South Korea on the way back from India. That coworker developed symptoms and I don’t think has sought medical attention. Now my daughter-in-law’s husband has chills and a cough. Classic coronavirus symptoms. To make matters worse, the daughter-in-law works as a nurse’s aide in our local hospital and has had close contact with hospital patients — changing diapers, taking vitals, etc. Given the South Korea connection, the symptoms, and the close contact with a vulnerable population, they need to be tested. Obviously. Not to mention that my wife cared for her infant son, who is now sick, and my wife and I recently turned 60.

I have called our county health department and several walk-in medical clinics (they don’t have health insurance). I was given the number of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, which I had already called numerous times only to be hung up on after waiting 10 minutes each time. I learned from a nurse at one of the walk-in clinics that wait times are at least 4 hours.

I also learned that the only way to get tested in Kansas is to get approval from the KS Department of Health and Environment. My daughter-in-law called her employer, the local hospital, and they connected her with those who are screening for possible tests. She was told that she doesn’t qualify for a test because she currently does not have a fever. Never mind that her husband does. And is coughing. Never mind that her husband has been in close contact with someone who recently spent time in South Korea, a coronavirus hot-spot. Never mind that my daughter-in-law has had close contact with vulnerable hospital patients.

Btw, I also learned that there is a catch-22. If you lack health insurance and call a medical clinic with symptoms compatible with coronavirus, they will refuse to let you come in. They instead refer you to the KS Department of Health hotline, with its 4 hour + wait and with its absurd criteria that will result in a denial of testing even if there has been contact with a person who has traveled from a coronavirus hotspot, there are classic symptoms of coronavirus, and there is contact with especially vulnerable persons.

I have called the Governor’s Office (we’ll look into it and get back to you), the local hospital’s PR department, and our local newspaper (which probably will do a story on it).

This is obviously an outrage. This is why this shit is spreading like wildfire and it is a recipe for further spread. This story needs to be circulated as widely as possible to embarrass our governmental officials into action. If you have any contacts at major news outlets, I’ll be happy to share my contact information.

Meanwhile, my wife and I are quarantining separately until either my daughter-in-law and her husband are tested and receive a negative test result or 14 days expires.

They did it in 2009 when H1N1 (or what was its name) was reported to be ravaging like there's no tomorrow. And it turned out to have been blown out of proportions. The same as with that corona thing, I believe.

Swine flu. With a quick check, I can report that the 2009 pandemic infected younger people at a higher rate than this one and ultimately its fatality rate was similar to that of seasonal flus.

COVID-19 is many orders of magnitude more lethal. In fact, it has the potential to be deadlier than the storied 1918-19 pandemic.

Bit early to be dismissive. [I love the transliteration in the URL]
https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/koronavi...584092251.html


By the way, as I recall you dislike Zelensky, but can you say he's outsourced national emergency response to his idiot children? (For whom he tailored tax law to funnel millions into their pockets?)

[Montmorency]

Reminder: Trump's comments (two weeks, one week ago) about dissolving pandemic preparedness infrastructure in the federal government.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings...ss-conference/

Q Your budgets have consistently called for enormous cuts to the CDC, the NIH, and the WHO. You’ve talked a lot today about how these professionals are excellent, have been critical and necessary. Does this experience at all give you pause about those consistent cuts?

THE PRESIDENT: No, because we — we can get money and we can increase staff. We know all the people. We know all the good people. It’s a question I asked the doctors before. Some of the people we cut, they haven’t been used for many, many years. And if — if we have a need, we can get them very quickly. And rather than spending the money — and I’m a business person — I don’t like having thousands of people around when you don’t need them. When we need them, we can get them back very quickly. For instance, we’re bringing some people in tomorrow that are already in this, you know, great government that we have, and very specifically for this. We can build up very, very quickly. And we’ve already done that. I mean, we really have built up. We have a great staff. And using Mike, I’m doing that because he’s in the administration and he’s very good at doing what he does, and doing as it relates to this.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings...on-atlanta-ga/

Q Mr. President, last night, you said you had not anticipated this kind of thing happening. Would you rethink then having an Office of Pandemic Preparation in the White House that is point on (inaudible)?

THE PRESIDENT: I just think this is something, Peter, that you can never really think is going to happen. You know, who — I’ve heard all about, “This could be…” — you know, “This could be a big deal,” from before it happened. You know, this — something like this could happen. I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down. We’ve really been very vigilant, and we’ve done a tremendous job at keeping to down.
But who would have thought? Look, how long ago is it? Six, seven, eight weeks ago — who would have thought we would even be having the subject? We were going to hit 30,000 on the Dow like it was clockwork. Right? It was all going — it was right up, and then all of a sudden, this came out. And all I say is, “Be calm.” We have the greatest people in the world. Everyone is relying on us. The world is relying on us. They’ve done an incredible job in a very condensed period of time.
And the thing is, you never really know when something like this is going to strike and what it’s going to be. This is different than something else. This is a very different thing than something else.

Well, he's certainly lived up to his promise to run the country like a failed business white-collar smash & grab.

And of course, you always have to keep the top grift in the family. Son-in-law Jared Kushner, hot off solving the Middle East conflicts:

Jared Kushner—who was tasked this week with carrying out research into the coronavirus to help President Donald Trump decide what to do next—has apparently consulted his sister-in-law’s dad, Kurt Kloss, an emergency-room doctor, who then reached out to a Facebook group for advice on what to say. The Spectator reports that Kloss crowd-sourced for ideas from other doctors on a Facebook group, asking: “If you were in charge of Federal response to the Pandemic what would your recommendation be?” Kloss added that he wanted “only serious responses” before writing, “I have direct channel to person now in charge at White House and have been asked for recommendations.” Kushner had earlier said he was talking to “relevant parties” and will “present his findings to the president.” After his initial post, Kloss posted a summary of the recommendations from the Facebook group and then informed them: “Jared is reading now.”

He has, finally, declared a national emergency.

Sounds like rapid national mass testing SHOULD be online from next week.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Its a unjust that the entirety of the nationality would be blamed for the consequences of the culnary practices of rural china and the inaction of the small cadre of party members that run china's communist government

While it's still unclear how the virus got transported to Wuhan (essentially Ground Zero), I would hardly call a city of nearly 11 million people, "rural". The Chinese can be faulted for not allowing test samples to be shipped out of the country in the initial outbreak stages, a situation that was later rectified. I would venture a guess that after a second corona virus outbreak originating from China's animal markets in the last 20 years, some type of protocol will be insisted upon, going forward.

That still doesn't absolve some of the world's governments slow response, with my own US of A topping the list of abysmal responses.

[Viking]

I dont know how things are going where you guys all live, but at least where I am, there seems to have been a massive run on the grocery stores today.

I have been working from home for the second day today after my company made working from home the default mode of working. All schools, kindergartens and universities nationwide are closed. As are all gyms, public swimming pools, hair salons and more. Hotels are closing for a lack of customers. Everyone that have travelled outside of the Nordic countries since 27 February is required to self-quarantine, while more and more countries in Europe are closing their borders in Plague Inc. like fashion; making such travels increasingly impossible anyway. The city authorities here put restrictions in place on how many people can use public transport at a time: all who are not seated must have 1 meter distance to the nearest standing person; I can only imagine a lot of people are finding their commute home longer than usual.

The state of normality is currently coming to an end in Europe at such a pace and to such a radical extent that the situation is difficult to take in.

Going to the grocery store today was probably the most normal thing I've done the last couple of days. Shelves were less stocked than usual, but most shoppers should get what they came for.

The thread mentioned by you falls utterly short of this one here as to the degree of hysterics and panic-mongering. At least in the Ukraine thread no one suggested stockpiling cereals and canned products. So, keep contributing to apocalypsetoday.com.

If you were the only Ukrainian participating in that thread, all stockpiling would have to be up to you; so that would have a simple explanation.

If one anticipate potential disruption to the distribution of goods, having some extra food around is smart. It is also smart if there is a significant risk of getting quarantined, which is the reality in many countries currently.

The outbreak of COVID-19 seems unlikely to be able to disrupt the distribution of goods directly, but buying small amounts of highly durable food comes at a minimal cost in the wealthier parts of the world, so the potential benefit doesn't have to be very large to justify it.

They did it in 2009 when H1N1 (or what was its name) was reported to be ravaging like there's no tomorrow. And it turned out to have been blown out of proportions. The same as with that corona thing, I believe.

Potential consequences of this virus have been on display in both South Korea and Italy already, and have been posted in this very thread. The proportions are already known: the virus appears relatively harmless for the majority of people, but there is significant risk for hospitals to get overwhelmed by abnormally high numbers of critically ill patients if big steps are not taken to halt the spread of the disease.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I highly recommend you download and read this if you haven't already (the full report of the World Health Organization-China joint mission on COVID-19):

https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...nal-report.pdf

For everyone, especially those from countries with a less than stellar response to COVID-19, this is a very sobering read on what it takes to get on top of, and eventually ahead of, this virus.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Rather than post a bazillion links pointing out the failures of the US in dealing with COVID-19, just peruse some of the articles found here:

https://www.theatlantic.com/

https://www.vox.com/

Both are somewhat left-leaning publications, but they get good marks in securing reliable sources, and for accurate reporting.

However, from Vox, reporting on Trump's press conference this afternoon:

Trump also cautioned against too much testing capacity: “We don’t want people to take a test if we feel that they shouldn’t be doing it. And we don’t everyone running out, only if you have certain symptoms.” But while it’s true that not everyone needs to be tested, it’s these kinds of roadblocks that have led to report after report of doctors and patients struggling to get access to tests. On social media, doctors regularly complain that they can’t obtain tests for patients even if the patients display symptoms.

Donny Baby once again putting millions of Americans at risk, for what...saving a few bucks on test kits?

Then there's this:

Trump, however, suggested that all this testing is not going to be necessary, because the pandemic will reside. “Again, we don’t want everybody to take this test, it’s totally unnecessary and this will pass,” he said. “This will pass through, and we’ll be even stronger for it.”

This viewpoint isn’t new to Trump. He previously tweeted comparisons to the common flu, which in fact appears to be less deadly and spread less easily than the coronavirus. He called concerns about the virus a “hoax.” He said on national television that, based on nothing more than a self-admitted “hunch,” the death rate of the disease is much lower than public health officials projected. And in February, he said of the coronavirus, “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”

Sweet Jesus, we are so screwed. Must be taking after his VP Pence who remarked during an HIV outbreak in Indiana in 2015, that he had to "go home and pray."

And then this, highlighting just how ignorant this man is about what is about to happen in the country he is leading (from a week ago):

Donald Trump declared live on television on Wednesday night that he did not believe the World Health Organization’s assessment of the global death rate from coronavirus of 3.4%. “I think the 3.4% is really a false number,” he told Sean Hannity, one of his favorite conservative Fox News hosts, in a phone interview broadcast live.

“You know, all of a sudden it seems like 3 or 4%, which is a very high number, as opposed to a fraction of 1%,” he said, perhaps referring to the typical death rate for influenza, which is well below 1%. Trump said: “But again, they don’t know about the easy cases because the easy cases don’t go to the hospital. They don’t report to doctors or the hospital in many cases. So I think that that number is very high. I think the number, personally, I would say the number is way under 1%.”

Too bad he can't be sued for wrongful death, because this kind of attitude, and this kind of ignorance, is going to get a lot of people killed.

And lastly this gem:

Trump also appeared to reject his own administration’s advice for people feeling unwell to stay at home. He said: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better, and then when you do have a death, like you’ve had in the state of Washington, like you had one in California, I believe you had one in New York.”

I ain't waiting for your miracle anytime soon, Donny Baby

[Seamus Fermanagh]

"More than 125,000 people have been diagnosed with Covid-19 in 118 countries around the world, according to the World Health Organization. The total number of deaths is more than 4,600."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51862347

This is just not OK, this is not "fear porn".

Covid-19 is a significant global health threat. The media coverage of same is both legitimate information that we need to know, AND "fear porn." That "pornographic" effect is a by-product of the process of broadcast journalism and the 24-hour news cycle, not an attempt at manipulation or pandering.

Journalism teaches its practitioners to focus on the conflict elements within a story, as it is from the conflictual element that a story gains its power/appeal and because that is a primary tool for uncovering those facts that have NOT been revealed. So each story focuses on the problem and its potential damaging effects because those are, by the lights of journalistic norms, THE facts most important to the story. Couple that to not one hour of news from two hosts, but 24 hours of news from 12-20 hosts each of whom repeats those salient facts and THAT is what creates the over-the-top pornographic effect.

A good viewer has to factor this in and sift the facts for themselves to make a practical judgement as to their response. That is what journalism wants you to do and what you should be doing. But to suggest that the level of hype somehow means that the proximate issue is therefore NOT serious is a complete misjudgment. COVID-19 is a world health crisis of significant magnitude and it needs to be handled, at least here in the USA, a bit more definitively than it has been to date.

If anyone was pandering here it was the administration, which held on to the "Things are under control, no need to panic" mantra for a week (or three) too long. Or, even more stupidly, used that mantra while NOT getting stuff prepared to deal with the crisis that CDC and AMRID were almost certainly telling them was about to happen.

As a metaphor, "fear porn" is catchy, but you should remember that porn is, after all, sex and the sex isn't any less real for being hyped, well-lit, and over-produced.

[Montmorency]

Italians singing Bella ciao

https://twitter.com/NicholsUprising/...45438476730369
https://twitter.com/SARS_COVID19/sta...89996601122817
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/...11958116175879

[Crandar]

The agenda of the secret cabal behind corona virus is pretty obvious. Schools have been closed just before the national holiday of the 25 March, the day Mary learned the good news. That means no military parades for the students, as there is no time for rehearsals. Additionally, there is an ongoing debate over the holy communion. The government mildly suggested to perhaps avoid it, but various MPs, university professors and the ecclesiastical synod concluded that it's fine, because the blood of Jesus cannot carry germs. And all this happened less than fourty days before Easter (19 April). So yeah, the Jews are on it again (and possibly the commies as well).

[Montmorency]

The agenda of the secret cabal behind corona virus is pretty obvious. Schools have been closed just before the national holiday of the 25 March, the day Mary learned the good news. That means no military parades for the students, as there is no time for rehearsals. Additionally, there is an ongoing debate over the holy communion. The government mildly suggested to perhaps avoid it, but various MPs, university professors and the ecclesiastical synod concluded that it's fine, because the blood of Jesus cannot carry germs. And all this happened less than fourty days before Easter (19 April). So yeah, the Jews are on it again (and possibly the commies as well).

Watch the Italians, you'll feel better.

[Hooahguy]

Well its not officially a plague until someone blames the Jews, right?

[drone]

It's a plot by Trump and the GOP to mess with the census.

[Montmorency]

Rory, do you have knowledge to interpret this?

https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/stat...84989323718668

1/ paper out yesterday examining patients from Wuhan admitted to the hospital who met endpoint of either making it to discharge or dying. Some thoughts.

2/ 191 patients met criteria for inclusion (they didn't include people who were still in the hospital being treated- only if you had died or survived to discharge).

137 survived (72%), 54 died (28%)

Remember- these are people sick enough to need a hospital, but still. Wow.

3/
Median time from illness onset to discharge was 22 days; to death was 18.5 days.

32 of the 191 (17%) required a ventilator.

31 of the 32 on a ventilator died (97%).

ECMO used in 3 patients. None survived.

RRT used in 10. None survived.

etc.

It's a plot by Trump and the GOP to mess with the census.

How is that even going to be concluded? With all the people hospitalized, or dying, during the process? All the paranoia and the self-isolation? Are there volunteers coming up? So many layers of disruption.

[Gilrandir]

Bit early to be dismissive.

I'm not dismissive. I'm skeptical. To me the ratio of panic and real threat seems like 80 against 20.

By the way, as I recall you dislike Zelensky, but can you say he's outsourced national emergency response to his idiot children? (For whom he tailored tax law to funnel millions into their pockets?)

You mean if he hasn't I should like him? My reasons for dislike are so numreous that one more wouldn't really change anything. As for Zelensky and his government, they declared quarantine having officially ONE case of covid. Today we OFFICIALLY have THREE cases (one of whom is lethal). Question: Are quarantines (not in this case, but in general) declared with ONE case of a disease? Or is the government keeping something secret from us?

If you were the only Ukrainian participating in that thread, all stockpiling would have to be up to you; so that would have a simple explanation.

If one anticipate potential disruption to the distribution of goods, having some extra food around is smart. It is also smart if there is a significant risk of getting quarantined, which is the reality in many countries currently.

The outbreak of COVID-19 seems unlikely to be able to disrupt the distribution of goods directly, but buying small amounts of highly durable food comes at a minimal cost in the wealthier parts of the world, so the potential benefit doesn't have to be very large to justify it.

But you still urge to hoard edibles despite of the detected unlikelihood? And panic-ridden people are unlikely to buy SMALL amounts of food. It turns into stampede shopping redounding to the general hysteria.

Potential consequences of this virus have been on display in both South Korea and Italy already, and have been posted in this very thread. The proportions are already known: the virus appears relatively harmless for the majority of people, but there is significant risk for hospitals to get overwhelmed by abnormally high numbers of critically ill patients if big steps are not taken to halt the spread of the disease.

A contradiction: the majority of people vs critically high numbers.

And if it is relatively harmless why is there worldwide panic over it? A suggested answer: prehaps someone benefits from it?

[Viking]

But you still urge to hoard edibles despite of the detected unlikelihood?

No. I don't urge people to do anything, and certainly not to "hoard". If suddenly you are required to self-quarantine for two weeks, it's nice if you don't have to ask yourself on day one where today's dinner is going to come from.

A contradiction: the majority of people vs critically high numbers.

Abnormally high numbers of critically ill patients overwhelm the capacity of hospitals to treat patients in intensive care, because most hospitals do not operate with large amounts of this type of spare capacity. Even if just a small fraction of the population becomes critically ill, it will overwhelm the hospitals if it happens over a short time span. It's a lot like a natural disaster, except now there will be much fewer hospitals around with spare capacity that can help share the load because the disease is simultaneously spreading over entire countries globally.

[Gilrandir]

No. I don't urge people to do anything, and certainly not to "hoard". If suddenly you are required to self-quarantine for two weeks, it's nice if you don't have to ask yourself on day one where today's dinner is going to come from.

As far as I understood from posts, people here stockpile food anticipating not self-imposed quarantine, but delivery problems which are caused by the very attempts to buy unusual amounts of foodstuffs.

Abnormally high numbers of critically ill patients overwhelm the capacity of hospitals to treat patients in intensive care, because most hospitals do not operate with large amounts of this type of spare capacity. Even if just a small fraction of the population becomes critically ill, it will overwhelm the hospitals if it happens over a short time span. It's a lot like a natural disaster, except now there will be much fewer hospitals around with spare capacity that can help share the load because the disease is simultaneously spreading over entire countries globally.

All the cosiderations seem sound but when panic-driven population starts to implement them into actions it turns into hysteria, empty supermarket shelves and media publishing with delight daily updates on the number of infected. And again I strongly suspect that quo prosit is a relevant question in evidence of the global insanity.

[ReluctantSamurai]

To me the ratio of panic and real threat seems like 80 against 20.

What is your thought process and/or information that leads you to this conclusion?

And if it is relatively harmless why is there worldwide panic over it? A suggested answer: prehaps someone benefits from it?

Haven't we had this conversation here before? Who is this someone that benefits from this particular "world-wide panic?"

[Gilrandir]

What is your thought process and/or information that leads you to this conclusion?

The worldwide number of the sick, the mortality rate and the narrow category of people most likely to be infected are really not on par with the weareallgonnadie to-do about it.

Haven't we had this conversation here before? Who is this someone that benefits from this particular "world-wide panic?"

The beneficiaries are quite numerous. In Ukriane they are:
1. Politicians. All of them try to score PR points using COVID as a lever. Those in opposition say that when they were at power such things never happened and should they be elected again they would know how to combat the plague. Those at power claim that the situation is so dangerous because their predecessors did nothing to anticipate it.
2. Media. Sensation is what they thrive on.
3. Oligarchs. Having an influence over the first and ownership of the second they reap their fruit in the wake of both.
4. Pharmacies. Purchases of anticeptics, masks and other related goods (vitamins, anti-virus medications, etc) soared.
5. Shop owners. Food, water, toilet paper and stockpiling of other kinds brings them fabulous revenues.
6. Students. Both high school and university students rejoice over the abscence of educational process, so they flock together and hang out at malls and cafes, sport fields and playgrounds which makes school quarantine effect dubious.

These are off the top of my head. If one puts on his thinking hat he may come up with some more, I'm sure.

[Gilrandir]

I've watched ALIENS at least 20 times; Hicks never said that... Fake news!!

Perhaps it was Hudson? Gorman could never really tell them from one another. Neither could I.

[Beskar]

Yes Minister strikes again:

Sir Richard Wharton: “In stage one, we say nothing is going to happen.”

Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.”

Sir Richard Wharton: “In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there’s nothing we can do.”

Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it’s too late now.”

[Viking]

As far as I understood from posts, people here stockpile food anticipating not self-imposed quarantine, but delivery problems which are caused by the very attempts to buy unusual amounts of foodstuffs.

A couple of posters here discussed stocking up, you can debate their tactics with them directly.

All the cosiderations seem sound but when panic-driven population starts to implement them into actions it turns into hysteria, empty supermarket shelves and media publishing with delight daily updates on the number of infected.

It's difficult to prevent people from wanting to panic buy. Significant numbers of people are going to want do that once they sense that upheaval might be coming, regardless of what the government or media says. As long as the distribution and production of the relevant goods remains normal, the situation in the stores should quickly return to normal. The kind of people that would like to fill up their basement with canned food and bottled water have probably done so long ago.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Politicians.

I don't know that much about politics in the Ukraine, but elsewhere it's a double-edged sword. Undoubtedly, the quest for increasing political gravitas will occur all too frequently. However, there will be other politicians who will lose, like here in the US where Trump is showing himself to be uninformed about what we are dealing with; if the outbreak here gets really bad (which I believe it will), someone will need to take the fall for our complete and total unpreparedness. The question will be if it's Trump, or if he will be successful in deflecting the blame to someone else. Leaders in China, Italy, Iran and elsewhere where the outbreak has been severe, will come under intense scrutiny for how they handled the situation.

Students

Seriously?? How about here in the US with all the student athletes who lose a year of eligibility, or the senior athletes that can no longer participate in post-season tourney's? And that's not even to consider the assumption (false, IMHO) you make that all students are basically lazy individuals who jump at any opportunity to get out of classes.

Media. Sensation is what they thrive on

Absolutely not the case. Sure they get a lot more viewers covering this pandemic which increase their advertising revenue, but I would venture that's not enough to offset the losses from events they cover being cancelled. Some of the largest media companies in the world are here in the US and they are going to lose billions (that's billions) because of the loss of revenue from cancelled sporting events. Taking just one cancelled event---the NCAA basketball tournament (know as March Madness) generated 1.32 BILLION last year. You think CBS and Turner Broadcasting (the two media companies that cover the majority of the games) are happy about all the media coverage of COVID-19?

Shop owners and pharmacies? In the short term, yes they will probably be experiencing upticks in business. Outside of price-gouging, what's wrong with that? The outbreak is not their fault, and they don't even have a way to influence ongoing events. They are a passive player in all of this.

Oligarchs.

See my earlier replies to Politicians and Media.

The worldwide number of the sick, the mortality rate and the narrow category of people most likely to be infected are really not on par with the weareallgonnadie to-do about it.

No, we're not allgonnadie. But many will, some unnecessarily. And the wild-card in all of this is that the number of "most-likely to be infected" may change. These types of viruses have a propensity to mutate, and the longer it hangs around, and the wider it gets spread, the greater the chances the constant mutations they go through will result in something far more deadly than where it started from. In the 1918 H1N1 outbreak, it wasn't the first wave of infections that had the high lethality. It was the second wave that came several months after the first wave started.

[drone]

How is that even going to be concluded? With all the people hospitalized, or dying, during the process? All the paranoia and the self-isolation? Are there volunteers coming up? So many layers of disruption.

I made a joke, but I do think this is going to be a big issue. Off the top of my head:

• You can't have census takers going door-to-door while the pandemic is uncontrolled, this would be insanity.
• The worst case scenarios will remove a large number of people from the count.
• The economic situation after the pandemic is uncertain, there may be large population movement as businesses are shuttered.

They will need to wait until this blows over, but I'm sure there are laws and layers of bureaucracy to cope with to delay it. And with the hyper-partisan environment we are in, both side will accuse the other of trying to gain an advantage.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Just for s@#$% and giggles, and because I have a crap-load of time on my hands, I was thinking about the "cosmic" reasons for COVID-19 (other than small critters doing what they've always done for thousands of years).

Because I love "what-if" scenarios, I came up with this one:

What if the COVID-19 outbreak causes Donald Trump to lose the US 2020 presidential election to (pick your Democratic poison)? What if the major disaster occurring in Iran (which is likely to get even worse) causes such unrest in the Iranian public that Hassan Rouhani and maybe even Ali Khamenei are ousted? And in China, what would happen if Xi Jinping also is ousted as General Secretary of the Communist Party? What happens next to world politics?

Feel free to add/subtract or manipulate the above scenario in any way you like.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...deaths-cases2/

Some point - cases continue to rise in Italy as people defy instructions not to gather together in public, factory workers have begun striking as they are expected to continue working whilst shops close.

Panic buying in the UK is now reaching crisis levels, paracetamol is increasingly hard to find and thermometers are basically all sold out. I admit, I among many other idiots did not buy one when I left home - and indication of our poor attitude to disease.

[Montmorency]

Unfortunately, right-wing nutjobs have been undermining South Korea's otherwise-effective response.

OT: @hooah, is Georgia no longer legally obligated to ensure the integrity of its elections?

I'm not dismissive. I'm skeptical. To me the ratio of panic and real threat seems like 80 against 20.

I'm not sure why you think the posting here rises to the level of panic, but prevention mitigates threat. In many parts of the world there has been subpar prevention, and the threat has concomitantly increased. (Note the inconvenient similariy to climate action.)

You mean if he hasn't I should like him? My reasons for dislike are so numreous that one more wouldn't really change anything. As for Zelensky and his government, they declared quarantine having officially ONE case of covid. Today we OFFICIALLY have THREE cases (one of whom is lethal). Question: Are quarantines (not in this case, but in general) declared with ONE case of a disease? Or is the government keeping something secret from us?

There is not 1 case, there are many tens of thousands. Borders do not mediate viruses.

And if it is relatively harmless why is there worldwide panic over it? A suggested answer: prehaps someone benefits from it?

Russian foreign policy is "relatively harmless" to individual Ukrainians in a similar way...

As far as I understood from posts, people here stockpile food anticipating not self-imposed quarantine, but delivery problems which are caused by the very attempts to buy unusual amounts of foodstuffs.

1-2 weeks supply. It can be as simple as a few kilograms of rice, beans, and oatmeal. Of course that's much more challenging for low-income (in these times, low-savings) people or those without much living space. Homeless in a pandemic? Forgetaboutit.

Some people have unproductive panic reactions, but this largely manifests (in terms of consumer behavior) as hoarding toilet paper, water, masks, and disinfectant, none of which the typical person will need in quantity. Food availability overall is not a problem. By the way, protip: in the coming days, when you go shopping you're going to want to buy a little bit extra each time. Why? First in order to minimize the number of times you go to the store, but primarily because the panic response in the population is a vicious cycle caught in a prisoner's dilemma. And there will be an acute wave of panic hitting Ukraine at some point soon. (I'm assuming it hasn't yet.)

People will, in large numbers, suddenly tune in to the necessity of stockpiling in case of quarantine, and will all rush to purchase zapas at the same time. Some food items in some locations will be in short supply due to JIT modern inventory systems. You see empty shelves, you have an impulse to buy out of fear of shortages (caused by hoarders and panic buyers), contributing to the empty shelves. Subsequent shoppers who arrive and see empty shelves experience fear, stoke conflict with other shoppers, and the cycle deepens. Thankfully, not that many people actually succumb and the supply chain adjusts within days as people saturate themselves on bulk purchases and demand reverts to the mean. Late March/early April is gonna be unnerving for you though. When you see it, remind people to slow down and that any shortages are only temporary.

Tangentially, I remember what the USSR would do to people like this.

And again I strongly suspect that quo prosit is a relevant question in evidence of the global insanity.

It's scary, but there is a world beyond human affairs. Sometimes it intrudes on those affairs.

The worldwide number of the sick, the mortality rate and the narrow category of people most likely to be infected are really not on par with the weareallgonnadie to-do about it.

Distinguish between we're-all-gonna-die panic and the sober many-of-us-will-probably-die reckoning.

These are off the top of my head. If one puts on his thinking hat he may come up with some more, I'm sure.

This is such a shallow insight into world affairs. Think about how it looks applied to Chernobyl:

The beneficiaries of the Chernobyl panic are quite numerous. In Ukraine they are:

1. Party apparatchiks: All of them try to score PR points using Chernobyl as a lever. Competing factions say when they were in power such things never happened and should they be elevated they would know how to combat the radiation. Those in power claim that the situation is so dangerous because their predecessors did nothing to anticipate it.

2. Media: Good opportunity to blame the Western capitalists.

3. Future oligarchs: It's a great excuse to agitate for Ukrainian independence.

4. Pharmacies: Purchases of iodine soared.

5. Scientists and doctors: The educated eggheads get to claim domain of expertise over the incident and increase their authority and prestige.

6. Students. Both high school and university students rejoice at the cancellation of classes and the adventure of evacuation.