Coronavirus / COVID-19

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ind-it-lacking

Here's someone explaining how it's not a conspiracy theory and certain people here (and Simon Jenkins) are talking nonsense.

Mind you, the journalist's last name is Cohen so...

[Montmorency]

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ind-it-lacking

Luck obsesses the world of the sick, which is just another way of saying that death obsesses us [...] so the world of the sick is a world of “what ifs”.

yeah

Having lived on the edge of the world of the sick for a decade, however, I wonder if our leaders realise how frightened people look to the state. Every crisis of the 21st century has proved the state’s centrality.

Weak (social welfare) state = weak communal and civic bonds = more panic, mistrust, and misinformation in a crisis. IMO


BTW

[Shaka_Khan]

Unfortunately, right-wing nutjobs have been undermining South Korea's otherwise-effective response.

One of the things that I learned from life is to not trust just one politician's and one political party's claims and accusations. I met one politician before. While I don't think he's an exact representation of every politician out there, he did give me a bad impression. The things that politicians like him do is to verbally put down the other side. He resorted to defamation.

It's interesting that it's hard to find articles on the opposition's point of view in English. I know a lot of South Koreans who support the opposition. They're not the "right-wing nutjobs" that the ruling party finds it convenient to label them as. Although the current administration is being one of the fastest in dealing with this pandemic now, it seems that way because so many other governments have done even worse. In reality, there were warnings by the Korean Medical Association about the potential for this to spread to Korea since January. The South Korean government originally ignored those warnings, which is why the virus spread so early into South Korea after China. The fact is that it was the current South Korean president who claimed that the virus in Korea would be over soon in early February. He and his government encouraged people to go back to normal routine. The cult was just trusting the president's words and held a mass gathering. The infection rate grew exponentially after that. Btw, there's no connection between the opposition party and the cult in that article. I'm not telling you which side to choose. I'm suggesting that you should have the whole story before you make up your mind about a group of people.

There are videos of Gordon Chang, who's a Chinese-American, supporting the South Korean opposition against the ruling party.

[Montmorency]

That doesn't address such details as:

Members of the group were told to refrain from wearing face masks as their belief in Lee and God would shield them from the virus, in some cases they were told to endure disease and attend church services. Since the outbreak, the sect has actively stifled government requests for transparency, providing false lists of church members and encouraging members to hide from authorities.

Conservative politicians have been relentless in criticizing Moon for not imposing a blanket travel-ban on Chinese visitors, a decision which would have had devastating impacts for a country so reliant on Chinese commerce. Conservative populists also ignored government warnings against large scale congregations and continued to hold rallies in Seoul. The conservative firebrand, Jun Kwang-hun, falsely mislead his followers – most of which are elderly and susceptible to infection — that the coronavirus outbreak was impossible to contract outdoors.

Or the information on the general proliferation of unchecked Christian cults in Korean society and government.

From an article on the "good, the bad, and the ugly" of the South Korean response:

So far, South Korea and Taiwan are among the few countries to have demonstrated robust and consistent SOPs. This is not surprising given that each has invested heavily in infectious disease control following prior experiences with SARS and MERS. South Korea’s SOP essentially calls for five steps: an aggressive and transparent information campaign, high volume testing, quarantine of infected individuals, treatment of those in need, and disinfection of contaminated environments. These may seem like obvious measures, but proper execution is ultimately what decides their effectiveness.
[...]
Every expert I have spoken to, domestic and abroad, agrees that South Korea’s information and testing are nothing short of enviable. The quality of these systems, however, doesn’t mean much unless the public is willing to use them. It is here that the murkier issue of voluntary compliance rears its head, bringing along essential considerations of culture and religion.

Koreans, quite fortunately, tend to be very socially conscious, willing to go out of their way to reduce risks for others. From the perspective of virus containment, this is an incredible gift.
[...]
Despite its advantageous culture, South Korea has nevertheless experienced notable exceptions to public compliance. By the numbers, cases involving the elderly have been most prevalent. Through the last month, we have received sporadic reports of seniors across South Korea refusing testing or quarantine. The most publicized example is a 61-year-old woman in Daegu who refused testing on two occasions despite having significant contact with an infected patient. This woman, referred to as “patient 31,” ended up infecting another 37 people. Last week, the government passed a law making violations of quarantine by infected patients an imprisonable offense, giving doctors greater authority to protect the public. Other countries would do well to consider similar implements empowering their medical and emergency staff. In Busan, we have also found seniors to be most likely to hold misconceptions and misgivings about the SOP. Part of this seems due to political leanings (discussed later) while another part is attributable to low science literacy. South Korea, as a nation, does have one of the highest rates of science literacy in the world but this characteristic rarely extends to those in their 50s and 60s.
[...]
A second, perhaps more important, group to consider are individuals of faith. Religious beliefs can have profound effects on cooperation if those beliefs come into conflict with science or the SOP. Similar conflicts are known to have prolonged the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in Africa. In South Korea, members and direct acquaintances of the church group Shincheonji account for a staggering two-thirds of all COVID-19 cases . The group’s unique worship style, which involves hundreds of people cramming together in confined spaces for hours, is indubitably responsible for high transmission between members. Last week, the Ministry of Justice revealed 42 Shincheonji members had returned from Wuhan in January, making it extremely likely that the original virus carriers were among this group. Although not all details have been released to the public, it appears the Shincheonji organization also tried to hide the fact that its members were infected, contributing significantly to high outbreak numbers in Daegu and surrounding Gyeong-buk province, which together account for over 85 percent of all South Korean cases.

Over the last two weeks, some Korean media outlets have begun putting forth a steady stream of criticism about the Moon administration’s handling of the outbreak. These criticisms have exhibited a decidedly political slant with lawmakers from the opposition United Future Party taking the lead. The complaints focused initially on President Moon Jae-in’s decision in January not to place an entry ban on Chinese nationals, a decision that remains in place. Although this ban might have helped reduce the number of infections modestly, we now know, as explained above, that Shincheonji likely had a much greater impact. Despite the new information, criticisms have not abated. Instead, they have simply transferred to other topics, such as the shortage of protective masks. As a scientist volunteering to maintain SOP compliance at the local level, I am extremely disappointed by this politicization of the outbreak. I can say with some authority that the negative coverage has started to make my job, and the jobs of my many colleagues, more difficult. Seniors, the demographic most likely to support the United Future Party and most likely to die from COVID-19, have recently started citing Moon’s “incompetence” as an excuse to dismiss or question SOP procedures, making everyone less safe and containment of the virus unnecessarily more challenging.

As for Moon's response, all accounts I find contradict your description.

[Gilrandir]

Significant numbers of people are going to want do that once they sense that upheaval might be coming, regardless of what the government or media says.

And how did they start to sense anything? Perhaps because they have seen or heard something in the media or from the government (in the same media).

As long as the distribution and production of the relevant goods remains normal, the situation in the stores should quickly return to normal. The kind of people that would like to fill up their basement with canned food and bottled water have probably done so long ago.

Oh really? I refer you to

Panic buying in the UK is now reaching crisis levels, paracetamol is increasingly hard to find and thermometers are basically all sold out. I admit, I among many other idiots did not buy one when I left home - and indication of our poor attitude to disease.

I don't know that much about politics in the Ukraine, but elsewhere it's a double-edged sword.

This fact never prevented the foolhardy from attempts to play with the sword being sure it will cut the way they want it to.

And that's not even to consider the assumption (false, IMHO) you make that all students are basically lazy individuals who jump at any opportunity to get out of classes.

Having a 25-year experience of working with students and a daughter who finished high school two years ago and now is a University student I can claim that it is the way I described them. And the sutuation has been steadily exacerbating.

As to the problem in question: three days ago I informed my 35 some students of my skype and the manner of communicating with them during the quarantine. How many of them responded to say nothing of registering for distant classes? Take a guess.

Absolutely not the case. Sure they get a lot more viewers covering this pandemic which increase their advertising revenue, but I would venture that's not enough to offset the losses from events they cover being cancelled. Some of the largest media companies in the world are here in the US and they are going to lose billions (that's billions) because of the loss of revenue from cancelled sporting events. Taking just one cancelled event---the NCAA basketball tournament (know as March Madness) generated 1.32 BILLION last year. You think CBS and Turner Broadcasting (the two media companies that cover the majority of the games) are happy about all the media coverage of COVID-19?

There is such a thing as vantage theory. In general it boils down to the premise that all of us look at things from different perspectives and therefore see only things that are open to view from there. The same is in this case. You make conclusions looking at your environment and don't consider (and mostly are not aware of) things that remain unseen form the USA.

In Ukraine TV channels are free (you have to buy a digital TV converter and an antenna, but that done you don't pay anything). ALL OF THEM are commercially unprofitable and are financed by oligarchs 5-6 of them owning 95% of TV channels. So in Ukraine media don't think of losing money because someone else will pay for them anyway. And having a subject to talk about for the next month or more and lots of people obliged to stay at home and watch TV will certainly increase their ratings.

As for March madness, never shared it. Watching students while you have an opportunity to watch NBA is like buying small, upripe and sour appples when you have access to big sweet ones.

Shop owners and pharmacies? In the short term, yes they will probably be experiencing upticks in business. Outside of price-gouging, what's wrong with that? The outbreak is not their fault, and they don't even have a way to influence ongoing events. They are a passive player in all of this.

It is not their fault, but they benefit from it and they may whisper in their customers' ear that it is better to buy things now before they run out of everything/ before prices soar.

In the 1918 H1N1 outbreak, it wasn't the first wave of infections that had the high lethality. It was the second wave that came several months after the first wave started.

Is it 1920 now or am I missing something? I believe that a hundred years that has passed since then must have brought some progress into medicine, no?

I'm not sure why you think the posting here rises to the level of panic, but prevention mitigates threat.

So you believe that posting here facilitates prevention? As I can surmise it is an update on the number of the infected, comparison of mortality rates and description of what is happening in locations posters hail from. All taken together it may raise the level of imminent threat feeling and when all around you keep talking of it night and day panic is just around the corner.

There is not 1 case, there are many tens of thousands. Borders do not mediate viruses.

I meant Ukraine where quarantine was announced whith officially 1 person infected. As for borders, the whole world would be much safer now if all outgoing traffic from China had been cut the day they showed the footage of a man "falling dead in his tracks on the street". By the way it is what China itself has done to its province.

Russian foreign policy is "relatively harmless" to individual Ukrainians in a similar way...

23 Ukrainian individulas whose job was serving in the army were killed since the year started. Yet these consequences of relatively harmless Russian foreign policy didn't cause any panic in Ukraine.

And there will be an acute wave of panic hitting Ukraine at some point soon. (I'm assuming it hasn't yet.)

It has been sporadically spotted. As the saying goes, В любой непонятной ситуации покупай побольше гречки. And journalists broadcast live from supermarkets interviewing the anxious shoppers. Which surely doesn't redound to the panic level now does it?

When you see it, remind people to slow down and that any shortages are only temporary.

Do you think people will listen to cautionary voices trying to reason with them or will share in the general panic?

Tangentially, I remember what the USSR would do to people like this.

Depends on what USSR you mean. If Stalin's USSR then расстрел без суда и следствия по законам военного времени. In Brezhnev's USSR it was a typical modus operandi of the majority of population so if all the goods were legally acquired it wouldn't probably incur any drastic consequences.

Think about how it looks applied to Chernobyl:

The beneficiaries of the Chernobyl panic are quite numerous. In Ukraine they are:

1. Party apparatchiks: All of them try to score PR points using Chernobyl as a lever. Competing factions say when they were in power such things never happened and should they be elevated they would know how to combat the radiation. Those in power claim that the situation is so dangerous because their predecessors did nothing to anticipate it.

Wrong. There was no opposition in the Party among small fry. At the upper floors there might have been some surreptitious (and sometimes open) struggle especially by the end of the USSR but average aparatchiks ever attuned themselves to the official position and changed their attitude instantly when линия партии altered. And at the time of Chernobyl the party leaders were as monolith as ever to say nothing of their subordinates. At least outwardly it looked that way never revealing a crack in this monolith.

2. Media: Good opportunity to blame the Western capitalists.

4. Pharmacies: Purchases of iodine soared.

Media as well as pharmacies (and shops by the way) were all state-owned which means they would continue functioning they way they did whatever happens around them. So it didn't really matter to them what happened.

3. Future oligarchs: It's a great excuse to agitate for Ukrainian independence.

At that time agitating for Ukrainian independence was a crime so pursued by nationalistic romatic dissidents only. Any would-be oligarch is a money-calculating person so idealistic tenets didn't (and don't) beckon to them.

5. Scientists and doctors: The educated eggheads get to claim domain of expertise over the incident and increase their authority and prestige.

They were embedded into the party system so the blame for the accident was put on them in the same degree, and even greater. In the mass mentality it could be epitomized by the phrase
эти ученые доигрались.

6. Students. Both high school and university students rejoice at the cancellation of classes and the adventure of evacuation.

There was no cancellation, lessons proceded as usual, moreover the Первомайская демонстрация was held in Kyiv with lots of children and grown ups getting radiation doses. Although student ever rejoice at any class cancellation, it is true.

In general, quoting you

This is such a shallow insight into world USSR affairs.

[Gilrandir]

And for Montmorency - another category of COVID beneficiaries:
https://golos.ua/i/739478

[Viking]

And how did they start to sense anything? Perhaps because they have seen or heard something in the media or from the government (in the same media).

Yes, as they should have, since it's part of the job of the government and the media to keep people informed of such things.

Oh really? I refer you to

People will panic buy until they are stocked up to a level they are comfortable with. Then the volume of purchased goods will return to normal, which should not take too long as most people are presumably not trying to fill their entire basement or apartment with goods.

Is it 1920 now or am I missing something? I believe that a hundred years that has passed since then must have brought some progress into medicine, no?

Until recently, as resistance has started to become a serious issue, bacteria were not so scary anymore because of the discovery of antibiotics. We have no antiviral drugs with equivalent potential:

Among the myriad infectious disease threats humans face from bacteria, prions, parasites, protozoa, fungi, ectoparasites, and viruses, it is viral infections that arguably constitute the biggest pandemic threat in the modern era. The replication rates and transmissibility of viruses are two major factors that underlie this threat. However, at least one additional factor plays an essential role: the lack of ‘broad-spectrum’ antiviral agents. Indeed, while bacteria can still cause substantial epidemics in parts of the world where access to clean water and/or antimicrobials is limited, the pandemic threats posed by bacteria, such as from the plague-causing Yersinia pestis, has been substantially diminished in the antibiotic era [1]. For viruses that pose epidemic risks, on the other hand, current therapeutic options are more limited.

Viruses, by their obligate parasitical nature, must use host cell machinery for many functions. Thus, antiviral strategies must be directed at the virus specifically with care to avoid interfering with host cellular function. As such, the number of clear targets per virus may be limited. By contrast, bacterial protein synthesis, for example, occurs via ribosomes that belong to the bacteria and are disparate enough from human ribosomes in identity that specific antibiotics can be deployed to target only bacterial protein synthesis. This unique feature of viruses, which derives from their very nature, serves to delimit antiviral therapies in a manner not applicable to antibacterial therapies.

Additionally, other characteristics of viruses serve as obstacles to broad-spectrum antiviral agents. These include differences between RNA and DNA viruses, vastly different virally encoded proteins across viral families, single or double strand genomic structure, cytoplasmic or nuclear replications cycles, and degree of reliance on host proteins.

Broad-Spectrum Antiviral Agents: A Crucial Pandemic Tool

[Gilrandir]

Yes, as they should have, since it's part of the job of the government and the media to keep people informed of such things.

Informed or hysteric?

People will panic buy until they are stocked up to a level they are comfortable with.

Ukrainians who survived famines and dearth of the 1990s have it in their genes to stockpile as much as possible. And shops just wouldn't keep up with the speed the goods disappear form the shelves if jounalists continue to broadcast live from the said shops fanning the hysteria to leaping height.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I can claim that it is the way I described them

I don't question your experience where you live. Just sayin' it's not like that here. I'm sure that there's a significant portion of students who are gleefully kicking back and enjoying their vacation, but there's a lot of students, particularly student athletes that have a future in professional sports that are not enjoying this at all.

And having a subject to talk about for the next month or more and lots of people obliged to stay at home and watch TV will certainly increase their ratings.

I would venture that you have a peculiar situation there with your media. World wide, most media companies will be losing billions of dollars because of the revenue loss from cancelled sporting events.

Is it 1920 now or am I missing something? I believe that a hundred years that has passed since then must have brought some progress into medicine, no?

You missed the point I was trying to make, completely. Of course we've made tremendous strides in medical care since then. I was referring to the complacency amongst younger people (at least here) who feel they are bulletproof to COVID-19 (and tend to be the most vocal in saying this whole outbreak is over blown). Even in its' present form, young people can, and have, died from it. However (and this is why I referenced the 1918 pandemic), viruses have a huge propensity to mutate. Now the vast majority of those mutations don't mean a thing, swapping a molecule here, a little twist in the RNA chain there, and nothing happens. BUT, on occasion, one of these mutations hits the jackpot (as far as the virus is concerned) and now things can go one of two ways; the virus gets less lethal (as the EVD virus that causes Ebola has been trying to do), or it gets more lethal (as the H1N1 virus did in 1918). Lets just hope COVID-19 doesn't figure out the more lethal pathway.

jounalists continue to broadcast live from the said shops fanning the hysteria to leaping height.

Question. Will it be hysteria if this virus finds its' way into the Ukraine at levels that other areas of the world are experiencing?

[Viking]

Informed or hysteric?

A completely neutral description is all that is necessary for significant numbers of people to start panic buying. If people had most of their information from rumours rather than news media, panic buying has the potential to get even worse than what it is now. It could be that some of the people panic buying now actually are acting more on rumours than what they personally read in the media. On of the biggest triggers for panic buying is also probably the government introducing restrictions.

And shops just wouldn't keep up with the speed the goods disappear form the shelves if jounalists continue to broadcast live from the said shops fanning the hysteria to leaping height.

There is a peak, then it calms down.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The UK has no thermometers, won't have any for two weeks.

[rory_20_uk]

I think panic buying is both a good thing (to a point) and is also something the Government wants to happen.

If every home in the UK has more provisions than usual then the logistics of feeding the UK is easier when things get really bad - suddenly the inability to get a delivery for a few days or even a week or so just means you use your supplies rather than have to get food by breaking quarantine. Ideally for the next month or so, all shops should be being constantly restocked with as much non-perishable food being carted off as possible.
The government is also doing barely nothing to stop it - bar allowing delivery lorries to arrive earlier and later to stock the shops up. Again, priming the pumps rather than controlling purchases (bar a few items - but even then ensuring good hygiene in a quarantine is a good idea).

The elderly are probably going to be indoors for 3 months. As in should not leave their house. At all. I doubt any persons, bar the "preppers" have that much food packed away.

So, when you're at the shops do us all a favour and whilst there's still easy food on the shelves being brought in by the literal truck load, take home as much as you can afford so you will be one less headache for the government when the bodies start piling up.

[Viking]

The UK has no thermometers, won't have any for two weeks.

Presumably people are not stockpiling thermometers. Unless they intend to resell them, which is a somewhat different issue.

[ReluctantSamurai]

This article is an excellent way to get familiar with what virologists are doing right at this moment:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...918-virus.html

While there are as many dis-similarities as the opposite (medical advancements, different social conditions, etc.), a couple of things stand out:

If a severe pandemic, such as occurred in 1918 happened today, it would still likely overwhelm health care infrastructure, both in the United States and across the world. Hospitals and doctors’ offices would struggle to meet demand from the number of patients requiring care. Such an event would require significant increases in the manufacture, distribution and supply of medications, products and life-saving medical equipment, such as mechanical ventilators. Businesses and schools would struggle to function, and even basic services like trash pickup and waste removal could be impacted.

Other challenges at a global level include surveillance capacity, infrastructure and pandemic planning. The majority of counties that report to the WHO still do not have a national pandemic plan, and critical and clinical care capacity, especially in low income countries, continues to be inadequate to the demands of a severe pandemic.3 In 2005, milestones were created in the revised International Health Regulations (IHR) for countries to improve their response capacity for public health emergencies, but in 2016, only one-third of countries were in compliance.

Prophetic? The article was updated on 17 December 2019. Can't find the original publication date.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I think panic buying is both a good thing (to a point) and is also something the Government wants to happen.

If every home in the UK has more provisions than usual then the logistics of feeding the UK is easier when things get really bad - suddenly the inability to get a delivery for a few days or even a week or so just means you use your supplies rather than have to get food by breaking quarantine. Ideally for the next month or so, all shops should be being constantly restocked with as much non-perishable food being carted off as possible.
The government is also doing barely nothing to stop it - bar allowing delivery lorries to arrive earlier and later to stock the shops up.

Rory, I see your logic and agree with it mostly. But while some fear is good to spur individuals to take care of themselves, there is a problem with this hands off approach by government.

At a minimum, there should be laws in place during national emergencies for mandatory rationing, enforced by the stores to prevent people from buying up all the hand sanitizer and isopropyl. We want people to get their butts to the store and stock up, not see empty shelves and start fighting each other.

[rory_20_uk]

Rory, I see your logic and agree with it mostly. But while some fear is good to spur individuals to take care of themselves, there is a problem with this hands off approach by government.

At a minimum, there should be laws in place during national emergencies for mandatory rationing, enforced by the stores to prevent people from buying up all the hand sanitizer and isopropyl. We want people to get their butts to the store and stock up, not see empty shelves and start fighting each other.

First off, soap is absolutely fine - if not better. I bought 4 bars a few weeks back. And we've still got some left. Shops seem to have no problem with soap.
Secondly, laws require enforcement. So how would you enforce the rules? Get the National Guard to the checkouts? And this might make people panic a whole lot more; toilet paper is a surprisingly important thing - but I imagine that the amount manufactured can be increased very quickly. Supermarkets around here are just bringing pallets of the stuff out of the warehouse and yes they're quickly being depleted. Which is a good thing.
The rates of fighting so far are much less than seen at the "typical" Black Friday event. Sure, I'd rather none at all, but this is a small price to pay for the general grasping of urgency to get stuff.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Rory, I know about soap. I've experience with clean rooms and sterilization of equipment as part of my work. Regular people dont know this stuff though, they think the only thing that can kill germs and viruses are in the pharmacy section. I am sure you can still pick up soap and aftershave right now.

As far as enforcement, it's as simple as the store saying "sorry sir, only two per person" and having a single town cop at the front of the store. Am I under thinking this?

[rory_20_uk]

Rory, I know about soap. I've experience with clean rooms and sterilization of equipment as part of my work. Regular people dont know this stuff though, they think the only thing that can kill germs and viruses are in the pharmacy section. I am sure you can still pick up soap and aftershave right now.

As far as enforcement, it's as simple as the store saying "sorry sir, only two per person" and having a single town cop at the front of the store. Am I under thinking this?

For "regular people" not to know requires wilfully ignoring every outlet that is stating this simple fact. So on this front is it not supply it is that we have an overabundance of morons.

If everyone would cheerfully accept the two per person, there would probably not need to be the two per person. So, what about when each person's child is a separate "person", or the same person just wants to pay several times? Or uses the self checkouts repeatedly? Although people have the inability to grasp soap = good, they'll think of many ways of technically following the rules whilst clearly taking the piss.

In a large supermarket, there might be 20 or more checkout lanes. What happens if the cop is busy on isle one and isle 14 has an issue? And if this is the USA, let's pretend in both cases the person is white so you can't just shoot one of them. And one cop per store would mean that there's a massive reduction in police elsewhere. The UK certainly doesn't really have spare capacity in this, and I'd rather they were at least pretending to try to solve crimes.

[a completely inoffensive name]

For "regular people" not to know requires wilfully ignoring every outlet that is stating this simple fact. So on this front is it not supply it is that we have an overabundance of morons.

If everyone would cheerfully accept the two per person, there would probably not need to be the two per person. So, what about when each person's child is a separate "person", or the same person just wants to pay several times? Or uses the self checkouts repeatedly? Although people have the inability to grasp soap = good, they'll think of many ways of technically following the rules whilst clearly taking the piss.

In a large supermarket, there might be 20 or more checkout lanes. What happens if the cop is busy on isle one and isle 14 has an issue? And if this is the USA, let's pretend in both cases the person is white so you can't just shoot one of them. And one cop per store would mean that there's a massive reduction in police elsewhere. The UK certainly doesn't really have spare capacity in this, and I'd rather they were at least pretending to try to solve crimes.

Are you surprised people are dumb and ignorant!?!? Always plan based on the stupidest person you can imagine then go one further.

Most people respond to signals of authority and order. Signs that say 2 per person with an authority figure nearby cuts down on the problem more than one would think. Also you can just turn off self checkout. Also every store has their own loss prevention resource.

Most of what you are saying is easily resolvable at the moment of transaction. If someone wants to go back to the end of the line for another two, that's not even a problem. Read up on the guy with 17,000 cases of sanitizer that's what we are trying to prevent, and they are not going to risk getting arrested over toilet paper, they will find some easier scam to make their money.

In national emergencies, lack of resources is a given and the main priority is maintaining public order. If you got robbed during an epidemic that's bad luck, idk what to tell you.

[Montmorency]

Italian obituaries. Everyone watch this clip!
https://twitter.com/benphillips76/st...54071509016577

So you believe that posting here facilitates prevention? As I can surmise it is an update on the number of the infected, comparison of mortality rates and description of what is happening in locations posters hail from. All taken together it may raise the level of imminent threat feeling and when all around you keep talking of it night and day panic is just around the corner.

Is your problem with this thread, government responses around the world, media responses, or what? We're just here to shoot the shit with some online folk.

Is it 1920 now or am I missing something? I believe that a hundred years that has passed since then must have brought some progress into medicine, no?

If the healthcare system is operating beyond capacity, its ideal or potential effectiveness is obviated.

One estimate I saw suggested <1% COVID-19 fatality rate under normal operations, but up to 5% under overrun. And when healthcare systems are overrun, it's not just COVID-19 patients who are affected - it's everyone else relying on the system too. Cascading mortality...

@Samurai: SARS-2 is gonna kill young people just fine if they get into a car accident and it turns out the nearest hospitals are overflowing converted COVID wards.

By the way it is what China itself has done to its province.

Yes, theoretically if you implement the most effective and draconian containment regime in history and physically obstruct every possible disease vector then there is no pandemic. So far in history disease finds a way. States are not omnipotent or omniscient. The Ukrainian government does, however, have the advantage of time to view the development of the pandemic, should it choose to take it.

23 Ukrainian individulas whose job was serving in the army were killed since the year started. Yet these consequences of relatively harmless Russian foreign policy didn't cause any panic in Ukraine.

There was significantly more panic in 2014-15, which I gathered from reading, uh, your posts here, reading the news, and thirdhand from relatives in Ukraine (I think some of them live near Dnepr). The foreign policy situation is now stabler, as opposed to the developing pandemic.

В любой непонятной ситуации покупай побольше гречки.

In general, quoting you

That was, like, my point.

Although to be pedantic there was a mandatory evacuation of school-age children in May, out to at least Kyiv. Right? You're young enough to have potentially been affected.

And for Montmorency - another category of COVID beneficiaries:
https://golos.ua/i/739478

In reference to the NYT article on profiteers vis-a-vis the Soviet system: there were many such people in Leningrad...

Are you surprised people are dumb and ignorant!?!? Always plan based on the stupidest person you can imagine then go one further.

Most people respond to signals of authority and order. Signs that say 2 per person with an authority figure nearby cuts down on the problem more than one would think. Also you can just turn off self checkout. Also every store has their own loss prevention resource.

Most of what you are saying is easily resolvable at the moment of transaction. If someone wants to go back to the end of the line for another two, that's not even a problem. Read up on the guy with 17,000 cases of sanitizer that's what we are trying to prevent, and they are not going to risk getting arrested over toilet paper, they will find some easier scam to make their money.

In national emergencies, lack of resources is a given and the main priority is maintaining public order. If you got robbed during an epidemic that's bad luck, idk what to tell you.

Toilet paper is a low-margin high-bulk item, so when it goes it goes quickly in a JIT age with minimum backroom storage. Just throwing that out there. It gets restocked quick, but people shopping and seeing empty lots or shelves don't perceive that.

Stores, at least large chains in America, have already begun implementing customer limits on items such as wipes and disinfectants. This actually hurts another demographic you may not have considered: women and their families. Since women are often shopping for groups of people, as is their gendered responsibility much of the time, individual limits are much more inconvenient to them than to single young people or to profiteers.

[Montmorency]

HUMOR BREAK:

Now, there's a lot of people making this reference, but the US government response is shockingly similar to the of the mayor in Jaws.

In that vein too:

In global disaster movies, there’s always a scientist who’s like, WE HAVE TO ACT NOW OR PEOPLE WILL DIE and some government guy who’s like, YOU’RE BLOWING THIS OUT OF PROPORTION and I’m like, NO ONE WOULD REACT TO INFO LIKE THAT IN REAL LIFE.

My apologies to those movies.

SARS 2 conclusively disproves those naysayers who argue that world governments would easily and rapidly neutralize any zombie plague.


How New Yorkers deal with coronavirus...
https://twitter.com/AMAZINACE/status...30441119379458

How Norway deals with coronavirus...

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

UK moving to a "war footing" regarding manufacturing: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896168

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Rory, I know about soap. I've experience with clean rooms and sterilization of equipment as part of my work. Regular people dont know this stuff though, they think the only thing that can kill germs and viruses are in the pharmacy section. I am sure you can still pick up soap and aftershave right now.

As far as enforcement, it's as simple as the store saying "sorry sir, only two per person" and having a single town cop at the front of the store. Am I under thinking this?

ACIN, the chemists and supermarkets here are running out of soap, and rubbing alcohol.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Toilet paper is a low-margin high-bulk item, so when it goes it goes quickly in a JIT age with minimum backroom storage. Just throwing that out there. It gets restocked quick, but people shopping and seeing empty lots or shelves don't perceive that.

Stores, at least large chains in America, have already begun implementing customer limits on items such as wipes and disinfectants. This actually hurts another demographic you may not have considered: women and their families. Since women are often shopping for groups of people, as is their gendered responsibility much of the time, individual limits are much more inconvenient to them than to single young people or to profiteers.

It's too little to late at this point though for the limits. I'm more amenable to that argument about no limits, regarding mothers shopping for groups, I didn't consider that specific end case.

[a completely inoffensive name]

ACIN, the chemists and supermarkets here are running out of soap, and rubbing alcohol.

Rubbing alcohol has been gone for a while in my town. Two days ago I went to Target and still found bottles of liquid soap, so maybe UK citizens are smarter about hygiene?

[Pannonian]

Rubbing alcohol has been gone for a while in my town. Two days ago I went to Target and still found bottles of liquid soap, so maybe UK citizens are smarter about hygiene?

Is Dettol or similar antiseptics less effective than rubbing alcohol?

[a completely inoffensive name]

Is Dettol or similar antiseptics less effective than rubbing alcohol?

I have never heard of Dettol, so I can't speak to this. Whatever type of chemical it is, Monty and others have shown there are some studies you might be able to find regarding a chemical's effectiveness at reducing viral load for a specific time duration.

But to my knowledge, and I might be wrong but the main advice from the experts is first and foremost don't touch your face and wash your hands with soap frequently. Disinfecting every surface you interact with is less practical.

[Montmorency]

Finally, NYC schools closed for the next month.

(Amusingly, at the beginning of this month the citywide plastic bag ban went into effect.)

[Gilrandir]

Question. Will it be hysteria if this virus finds its' way into the Ukraine at levels that other areas of the world are experiencing?

People say that we are experiencing the same level of infection, only the authorities don't admit it. Which is one more reason to get hysteric.

Is your problem with this thread, government responses around the world, media responses, or what? We're just here to shoot the shit with some online folk.

As a response:

The UK has no thermometers, won't have any for two weeks.

UK moving to a "war footing" regarding manufacturing: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896168

ACIN, the chemists and supermarkets here are running out of soap, and rubbing alcohol.

Just shit shooting which has no relation whatever to panic-mongering.

There was significantly more panic in 2014-15, which I gathered from reading, uh, your posts here, reading the news, and thirdhand from relatives in Ukraine (I think some of them live near Dnepr). The foreign policy situation is now stabler, as opposed to the developing pandemic.

Foreign policy pursued by Zelensky is fraught with outbursts of patriotic population, so no stability. This time due to Ukrainian authorities, not Russia, thought.

Although to be pedantic there was a mandatory evacuation of school-age children in May, out to at least Kyiv. Right? You're young enough to have potentially been affected.

As far I as remember children finished their school at he end of May and then parents were free to send them away if they liked. I mean in Kyiv. Elsewhere I'm confident that it was this way. No evacuation - it could give rise to total panic which was already starting to spread.

[Crandar]

How Norway deals with coronavirus...

Because of the Trondheim University's "instruction" I prematurely lost contact with my Norwegian girlfriend and Erasmus student. And now it has gone viral. Thanks, Anne Borg. Anyway, the comment about defective healthcare infrastructure seems to have been redacted by now. If I remember correctly, the original announcement (and not the Facebook summary) specified that the issue with the United States was also the lack of public transport, which rendered airports not very easily accessible. That, to be honest, looks even more embarrassing.