Coronavirus / COVID-19

[Gilrandir]

Yes, theoretically if you implement the most effective and draconian containment regime in history and physically obstruct every possible disease vector then there is no pandemic.

Thousands of deaths, hundreds of thousands of infected, people confined to their dwellings, tourism industry at a full stop, stock exchange market dropping, oil prices plummetting, Putin prolonging his tenure till 2036, student athletes turned into students, media corporations devastated, floor in Ukrainian post offices washed with хлорка, Brithish stocks of thermometers and soap running historically low since 1914 (and just slightly above 1066) with no chance to replenish them because the UK has Brexited and Megan is in Canada, and on top of it all Trump taking a COVID test (and everybody made sure his ravings are hard-coded and not caused by some bug virus) VS preventing people to leave China? Hmmm... Seems a tough choice....

[Beskar]

In a large supermarket, there might be 20 or more checkout lanes. What happens if the cop is busy on isle one and isle 14 has an issue? And if this is the USA, let's pretend in both cases the person is white so you can't just shoot one of them. And one cop per store would mean that there's a massive reduction in police elsewhere. The UK certainly doesn't really have spare capacity in this, and I'd rather they were at least pretending to try to solve crimes.

Really?!

[Shaka_Khan]

Conservative politicians have been relentless in criticizing Moon for not imposing a blanket travel-ban on Chinese visitors, a decision which would have had devastating impacts for a country so reliant on Chinese commerce.

Yes, many Koreans are aware of the economic importance of China. In fact, it was during the two previous conservative South Korean administrations that South Korea's trade and outsourcing with China grew the most. It was during the previous conservative administration when South Korea had one of the strongest passports in the world, even stronger than the United States'. But we're talking about a pandemic here. More than a hundred countries are now either banning or quarantining the entry of South Korean citizens. The countries banning the entry of the Korean citizens include most of the European countries. Many countries are banning the entry of Chinese citizens also.

[Viking]

Not only has Norway, like many European countries, closed its external borders, but an increasing amount of Norwegian municipalities are now closing their municipality borders and requiring people who have recently traveled to other municipalities to self-quarantine. It's closed borders all the way down.

Then there are all the idiosyncratic rules individual municipalities have the legal opportunity to declare now because of the virus. This includes restrictions on everything from candy dispensers in stores to public transport; whatever topic crosses the mind of the local municipality administration.

It's like a return to the kingdoms of old, or the virus is just a federalist one.

[Beskar]

The End times are here. Not allowed to go anywhere, everything is closing down, the world is being brought to a stand-still.

[a completely inoffensive name]

The End times are here. Not allowed to go anywhere, everything is closing down, the world is being brought to a stand-still.

Funny how it always seems like business as usual until it suddenly isn't?

[edyzmedieval]

I don't know how we're supposed to function well with 1 months of quarantine / isolation, possibly even 2 months or more. Horrendous.

[Pannonian]

Crime is up, as seen in this case of burglary.

[Beskar]

Funny how it always seems like business as usual until it suddenly isn't?

The world is weird at the moment. It is like a slow semi-apocalypse currently led by fear.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The End times are here. Not allowed to go anywhere, everything is closing down, the world is being brought to a stand-still.

I feel physically sick, everything grinding to a halt is much scarier than getting the disease.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I feel physically sick, everything grinding to a halt is much scarier than getting the disease.

Don't panic PVC. There is nothing new under the sun, we are just experiencing what used to be a more common experience.
This too shall pass and all that. Just stay safe and follow the Standard Operating Procedure.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Don't panic PVC. There is nothing new under the sun, we are just experiencing what used to be a more common experience.
This too shall pass and all that. Just stay safe and follow the Standard Operating Procedure.

I'm already having heart palpitations - "don't panic" is utterly redundant.

I can't function without regular physical interaction, lack of female company in particular I find utterly unbearable.

[Furunculus]

i have a young child at school, so i'm pretty much banking on getting it in the next month or so.
i'm wfh but it really makes no difference. c'est la vis.

on the bright side - the house/shed is well stocked for while the Furunculus household is in 14day quarantine.

[ReluctantSamurai]

the world is being brought to a stand-still.

The dominant species on the planet brought to its' knees by an organism no more than 0.1 micron in size

lack of female company in particular I find utterly unbearable.

Guess you'll have to dust off all those old porn links

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Guess you'll have to dust off all those old porn links

Not actually what I meant.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

So, as I'm currently adjusting to our new reality I want to make a point because pontificating helps me to calm down. A lot of people are afraid, I understand that, and a lot of people think the government should "do more" but I think a lot of people don't realise quite what's happening yet.

The UK has moved, in a couple of weeks, from a peacetime society to a wartime one. Elections have been cancelled, parliamentary debate has effectively ended, industry is being co-opted to government policy and we are all being asked to "do our bit". Quite a few people want Boris Johnson to go further and forcibly close businesses and and schools. That comes next, alongside people being arrested for being out after curfew.

When Paul Witby says we are in this "for the long haul" he's been clear what that means, but I don't think people are listening. We're not talking a few weeks, we're not even talking a few months - this could well go on for a year or more. The only way the country will be kept going will be further "wartime" measures which means the Government essentially printing money, introducing price controls to prevent profiteering and ultimately rationing to control supply - something which may become law soon if panic buying continues. These restrictions will probably outstrip those enacted during World War II if the public demands to "do something" continue.

The worst part of this will come after the restrictions are lifted, because what's left of our ravaged economy will collapse and unlike 1945 there will be no American loans to prop us up.

The epidemic is likely to peak during the Summer and then trails off before starting to pick up again in the winter because Coronavirus is basically the same thing the Common Cold - which we have no treatment for. When cases start to fall off we are going to need to decide what we want our "new normal" to be - whether we want a "war on disease" or we accept shortened lifespans in exchange for some semblance of a normal civil society. Consider this especially if you have young children, because this disease is not a threat to them whilst closed schools and loss of civil liberties and social interaction are.

[Montmorency]

About this disease and young people:

https://twitter.com/markwby/status/1238867143363567616

Here’s something that’s absolutely terrifying: a comparison of the age distributions of Covid-19 cases in Italy, where they are only testing people who show symptoms, and S. Korea, which has broad testing. A whole lot of 20-29yos out there who feel just fine but are v contagious.

Holy CRAP that is a lot of asymptomatic young people. Young people are the submerged bulk of the iceberg, becoming the silent Boomer Terminators of certain members' worst nightmares.

[Pannonian]

So, as I'm currently adjusting to our new reality I want to make a point because pontificating helps me to calm down. A lot of people are afraid, I understand that, and a lot of people think the government should "do more" but I think a lot of people don't realise quite what's happening yet.

The UK has moved, in a couple of weeks, from a peacetime society to a wartime one. Elections have been cancelled, parliamentary debate has effectively ended, industry is being co-opted to government policy and we are all being asked to "do our bit". Quite a few people want Boris Johnson to go further and forcibly close businesses and and schools. That comes next, alongside people being arrested for being out after curfew.

When Paul Witby says we are in this "for the long haul" he's been clear what that means, but I don't think people are listening. We're not talking a few weeks, we're not even talking a few months - this could well go on for a year or more. The only way the country will be kept going will be further "wartime" measures which means the Government essentially printing money, introducing price controls to prevent profiteering and ultimately rationing to control supply - something which may become law soon if panic buying continues. These restrictions will probably outstrip those enacted during World War II if the public demands to "do something" continue.

The worst part of this will come after the restrictions are lifted, because what's left of our ravaged economy will collapse and unlike 1945 there will be no American loans to prop us up.

The epidemic is likely to peak during the Summer and then trails off before starting to pick up again in the winter because Coronavirus is basically the same thing the Common Cold - which we have no treatment for. When cases start to fall off we are going to need to decide what we want our "new normal" to be - whether we want a "war on disease" or we accept shortened lifespans in exchange for some semblance of a normal civil society. Consider this especially if you have young children, because this disease is not a threat to them whilst closed schools and loss of civil liberties and social interaction are.

One good thing about planning for worst case Brexit is that we've already planned for shortages. See, we can live with revolution and drastic changes in lifestyle. We'll get the vaccine in time, but by then, we'll have had 18 months of this, so we might as well continue in the same vein.

[Montmorency]

NYC special election next week suspended TBD. Dem primary still on for April 28, which seems more superfluous but...

I mentioned the Jaws joke wrt Trump, but I'm hearing now that Boris Johnson of the UK is on record that:

Boris Johnson has revealed the inspiration behind his ambition to run London - Larry Vaughn, the mayor in the film Jaws who demanded the beaches stay open despite the ominous presence of a great white shark.

Just 24 hours after entering the race to become the Tory candidate in the mayoral elections next year, it emerged that Mr Johnson had praised Mayor Vaughn's "laissez faire" approach to public safety on several occasions.

The mayor's order leads to the gruesome death of a young boy. However, the MP for Henley said Mr Vaughn is a role model to which all politicians should aspire.

"The real hero of Jaws is the mayor," Mr Johnson said last year [2006] in a speech at Lloyd's of London.

"A gigantic fish is eating all your constituents and he decides to keep the beaches open. OK, in that instance he was actually wrong. But in principle, we need more politicians like the mayor - we are often the only obstacle against all the nonsense which is really a massive conspiracy against the taxpayer."

I hope for your British members' sake the UK government's response hasn't lived up to the old ideal.

On the other hand, Trump is the character in the story concealing a nasty bite on his forearm...

Asked what it was like to take the test, Trump says, "Not, not uh - something I want to do everyday...you know, it's a little bit of a -- it's a little bit of -- good doctors in the White House, but it's a test. It's a test. It's a medical test. Nothing pleasant about it."

BTW, an excellent thread on the importance of prudence and caution under threat. The analogy is to the days (2002) when a serial killer sniper was haunting the DC area.

This somewhat prevalent “social distancing = weakness” take on #COVID19 reminds me of a story. For three weeks in October 2002, a sniper terrorized the greater D.C. metro, murdering civilians who were guilty of nothing other than going about their lives:

Carrying groceries to their car, sitting on a park bench, or mowing their yard. These victims were chosen at random. At the time, I was a Georgetown student and an Army ROTC Cadet. Local officials – as well as University leaders – were unified in their message to the public: “If we stop going out and spending money, the terrorists win.” It was simply uncool to admit you didn’t want to go out for lunch, walk across an open campus, or drive to work. Then, at the conclusion of a morning ROTC training session, one of my instructors offered a “safety brief.”
He was a tall, grizzled Sargent First Class with a combat patch, which was rare in those early days post-911.

“I know all these civilians keep saying to go about your daily lives so the terrorists don’t win, but that’s [flipping] stupid,” he growled. “There’s a damn sniper out there shooting people!” “I’ve been shot at by snipers, and I’m standing here because I didn’t walk around like some kind of idiot pretending there was no sniper.”

The American personality tends toward defiance, and in times of crisis or massive disruption, we exhibit an instinctual cultural response along the lines of, “I’m not going to let this event change the way I do things.” Political “leadership” too often defers to this instinct. Leaders fear being seen as “overreacting” while citizens fear being seen by their peers as fearful. In the case of a global pandemic, we should reject this reluctance and give in to the temptation toward urgency. Urgency is what we need.

As far I as remember children finished their school at he end of May and then parents were free to send them away if they liked. I mean in Kyiv. Elsewhere I'm confident that it was this way. No evacuation - it could give rise to total panic which was already starting to spread.

Expert Says Chernobyl Fire Is Out, 250,000 Children Leaving School Early [May 9 1986]
UKRAINIANS EVACUATE 100,000 KIEV KIDS [May 25 1986]
AFTER CHERNOBYL, IT'S SCHOOL BELLS [September 2 1986]

Here's the account of a Ukrainian close to you in age. He said younger kids had classes cancelled, and some parents sent their kids to other parts of the Union; the narrator himself was sent to Leningrad after school ended to stay with a friend's family, where he observed all passengers from the south being run through dosimeters. (You might like his channels, he moved to America permanently in the late 90s.)

Thousands of deaths, hundreds of thousands of infected, people confined to their dwellings, tourism industry at a full stop, stock exchange market dropping, oil prices plummetting, Putin prolonging his tenure till 2036, student athletes turned into students, media corporations devastated, floor in Ukrainian post offices washed with хлорка, Brithish stocks of thermometers and soap running historically low since 1914 (and just slightly above 1066) with no chance to replenish them because the UK has Brexited and Megan is in Canada, and on top of it all Trump taking a COVID test (and everybody made sure his ravings are hard-coded and not caused by some bug virus) VS preventing people to leave China? Hmmm... Seems a tough choice....

I wasn't diminishing the potential effectiveness of restrictions on movement of persons in delaying the spread of the disease, but reminding you that trying to discount or compartmentalize cases on the same landmass (Eurasia) leads to an incomplete frame of reference. Viruses exist in a different realm than humans do.

The most extreme quarantine measures, if you will, shrink political boundaries down to the space of a single household.

Vaguely-relevant Polandball cartoon.

[Pannonian]

The most extreme quarantine measures, if you will, shrink political boundaries down to the space of a single household.

Not necessarily.

[Montmorency]

Not necessarily.

Let me correct myself to say the most extreme isolation measure would be mandatory isolation centers, but I take your point.

Interesting that the vast majority of transmission in China was intra-family.

[Csargo]

About this disease and young people:

https://twitter.com/markwby/status/1238867143363567616




Holy CRAP that is a lot of asymptomatic young people. Young people are the submerged bulk of the iceberg, becoming the silent Boomer Terminators of certain members' worst nightmares.

This is one of the worst parts, showing no symptoms, but being able to spread the virus.

[Pannonian]

Another night in England, with a furtive punter buying "gear" from a local dealer. Note how the punter demands to try the merchandise, but the dealer demands payment in cash before handing over the goods.

[Gilrandir]

The End times are here. Not allowed to go anywhere, everything is closing down, the world is being brought to a stand-still.

I don't know how we're supposed to function well with 1 months of quarantine / isolation, possibly even 2 months or more. Horrendous.

Crime is up, as seen in this case of burglary.

The world is weird at the moment. It is like a slow semi-apocalypse currently led by fear.

I feel physically sick, everything grinding to a halt is much scarier than getting the disease.

My motion to rename the thread into weareallgonnadie holds.

Expert Says Chernobyl Fire Is Out, 250,000 Children Leaving School Early [May 9 1986]
UKRAINIANS EVACUATE 100,000 KIEV KIDS [May 25 1986]
AFTER CHERNOBYL, IT'S SCHOOL BELLS [September 2 1986]

Here's the account of a Ukrainian close to you in age. He said younger kids had classes cancelled, and some parents sent their kids to other parts of the Union; the narrator himself was sent to Leningrad after school ended to stay with a friend's family, where he observed all passengers from the south being run through dosimeters. (You might like his channels, he moved to America permanently in the late 90s.)

I don't (and didn't back in 1986) live in Kyiv perhaps that is why I don't remember any evacuation. If there was any I'm sure it was done next to surreptitious because... well, it's the USSR. All bad news was kept from spreading as much as possible especially when it goes about large-scale disasters.

[Greyblades]

I don't know how we're supposed to function well with 1 months of quarantine / isolation, possibly even 2 months or more. Horrendous.

Whatever you do dont spend it watching the news.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I wonder if this sort of crap, if it's true, is going to become more frequent in the coming weeks:

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/16...s-cyber-attack

We should put Max Brooks in charge of fighting the virus:

https://www.vox.com/culture/2020/3/1...emic-interview

[Interviewer Alissa Wilkinson]

In World War Z, there’s the outbreak that causes people to become zombies, but then there’s something called the “Great Panic,” when people start to freak out and take drastic measures, like heading north because they’ve heard that the zombies can’t survive the cold. Different countries experience the Great Panic at different times. But according to the book, more people die from the panic than the actual infection.

[Max Brooks]

Unfortunately, that happens in many crises. People lose their minds and they do irrational things and they hurt each other. You don’t want that to happen. You’ve got to make sure you keep your head when things appear dark all around you. Because, No. 1, you can’t fix the problem if you’re too busy losing your mind. Then you have what’s called second- and third-order effects, where other people start to get hurt. I’m starting to see that with panic buying. So far there hasn’t been a lot of violence, which is great, and I hope it never happens. But the mass run on things like bottled water — in a pandemic, the water is going to keep running. It’s not an earthquake.

I think different cultures respond in different ways. Different cultures have different political systems, which definitely affects how they respond. I think the sharpest contrast is between the US and China. Everything that goes wrong in China with this virus is directly laid at the feet of Xi Jinping. He has all the power, so he has all the responsibility. Every death is on his hands. But, by the same token, we are responsible for our own deaths in this country. If we don’t like our leaders — well then, look in the mirror; we put them there. We voted for them. If we don’t like the way the CDC is handling this virus, well, who voted to defund the CDC? Who didn’t listen to the cries of health professionals saying, “Wait a minute, they’re defunding the CDC!”? We didn’t listen. We were like, “Oh my God. Friends is on Netflix. I have bingeing to do! I have things! There’s an app where I can put bunny ears on myself and send it out!” In a dictatorship like China, you can blame the top. In a democracy, in a republic, we have to blame [who we see in] the mirror.

And yet another indication that we here in the US, are perhaps in big trouble:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51919945

Anyone in a household who tests positive for the virus should remain at home along with everyone who lives there

Right. And anyone with a brain and the ability to read knows that this is the best way to spread the virus

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/2116106...-covid19-china

[Assistant Director General from the WHO, Bruce Alyward]

Think about the virus. Where is the virus, and how do you contain the virus? You know the virus is in the cases and in the close contacts. That’s where the majority of the virus is; that’s where the majority of the focus should be. China did a whole bunch of things, and other countries may have to do them, too, as they go forward. But the key is public information and having an informed population, finding those cases, rapidly isolating them. The faster you isolate them is what breaks the chains. Making sure close contacts are quarantined and monitored until you know if they’re infected. Somewhere between 5 and 15 percent of those contacts are infected. And again, it’s the close contacts, not everyone.

Which is exactly what they did. A family member who tested positive, was not sent home (where they could conceivably infect more family members), but sent to a containment center where they could be monitored and treated.

And some hopeful news, perhaps:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-...id-19/12059266

[Montmorency]

The states seem to be localizing testing capacity in the absence of federal assistance. New York expects to be testing 6000 daily by next week.

There was some kind of blunder today where the NYC mayor announced an imminent shelter-in-place order but the governor immediately belayed it as both out of the question and not within the mayor's authority.

South Korea's unique epidemic-oriented legal framework, compared to America's.


On China's soft power campaign in the age of coronavirus:

Belt and Road & Beyond
@BeltandRoadDesk
EU failed to come to Italy’s help in fighting the COVID19 pandemic, China extends its helping hands.

A Italian girl named Aurora expresses her gratitude to China with her panting.

Meanwhile, HOLY SHIT listen to the Serbian president.

By now, you all understand, that great international solidarity, actually, does not exist. European solidarity does not exist. That was a fairy tale on paper.
[...]
Today, I dispatched a special letter, because we have huge expectations... that the only one that can help us in this hard situation is the People's Republic of China.
[...]
I addressed [Xi Jinping] not only as a dear friend, but as a... friend and brother of this country. As of today, as you know, we cannot import goods, according to a resolution of the EU.

[Complains about EU barring sale of medical devices to Serbia, while also discouraging trade with China.]

I believe in the brother and friend of mine, Xi Jinping, and I believe in Chinese help. The only country that can help us is China. For the rest of them, thanks for nothing. Trust me that I will find a way to thank them.

The Western international system has been a little ineffective on this collective action problem, huh?

[Pannonian]

The Western international system has been a little ineffective on this collective action problem, huh?

You mean western liberal democracy. There are any number of things the international system could do. But the politicians pander to the voters, who value their individual freedom more than any greater collective system. The politicians need to change to lead a more collective system. The people need to change, to accept more collective values.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

You mean western liberal democracy. There are any number of things the international system could do. But the politicians pander to the voters, who value their individual freedom more than any greater collective system. The politicians need to change to lead a more collective system. The people need to change, to accept more collective values.

Is that what we want, though?

Doing nothing in the UK was predicted to cause 500,000 deaths, mitigation 250,000, suppression tens of thousands.

I spoke to my father today, who is in his mid 60's with a bad chest, and he was unimpressed by those numbers - as are many local wrinklies. He seemed to think all this fuss was a somewhat narcissistic move to keep the old folks going longer so we don't have the bury them.

[ReluctantSamurai]

On China's soft power campaign in the age of coronavirus

Unfortunately for the US and EU, China is already past the worst for their country (presuming there will be no further outbreaks), and so can afford the luxury of extending help to other countries. China's leadership is certainly shrewd enough to see a vacuum emerging in global co-operation as countries shrink their social and economic views of the world back to their own borders in efforts to stem the pandemic. A golden opportunity for any country in their position to increase their gravitas.

The politicians need to change to lead a more collective system. The people need to change, to accept more collective values

The fact that supply chains are breaking down because of "globalization" may (or not) result in nations returning to more local sourcing including resurrecting domestic production