Coronavirus / COVID-19

[Pannonian]

Is that what we want, though?

Doing nothing in the UK was predicted to cause 500,000 deaths, mitigation 250,000, suppression tens of thousands.

I spoke to my father today, who is in his mid 60's with a bad chest, and he was unimpressed by those numbers - as are many local wrinklies. He seemed to think all this fuss was a somewhat narcissistic move to keep the old folks going longer so we don't have the bury them.

It's not what we want. It's what we need. But it's not what we want, and we elect the government, so we get what we want. That's why I don't solely blame politicians. The current lot is merely an extreme and talentless bunch who have excelled in getting votes from the people who think experts are passe.

[Pannonian]

The fact that supply chains are breaking down because of "globalization" may (or not) result in nations returning to more local sourcing including resurrecting domestic production

We should making such a move anyway, to reduce fuel usage and overall waste. We actually have a government who think that agriculture and domestic food production are not needed for our economy.

[Montmorency]

I don't know enough to say, but I feel like there was more institution-led international cooperation in the AIDS, 2008 financial, swine flu, and Ebola crises than we have now. (I hesitate to compare to the smallpox eradication because that was operationally straightforward by comparison.)

Ideally in this episode, the US government starting in January would have proposed decisive internationally-coordinated border checks and controls, as well as a consolidated monetary relief mechanism for economic losses plus at least limited temporary distribution of resources in medical personnel and equipment where needed. A transnational industrial policy regulating and stimulating airlines and medical device/mask manufacturers in preparation for inevitable lockdowns and surges too.

[Hooahguy]

The Imperial College report on COVID-19

It is terrifying. Even with full suppression in place, we would have to keep repeating it in cycles until a vaccine is fully approved and rolled out, which could be a full 18 months from now.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Funny video

[ReluctantSamurai]

Ideally in this episode, the US government starting in January would have proposed decisive internationally-coordinated border checks and controls, as well as a consolidated monetary relief mechanism for economic losses plus at least limited temporary distribution of resources in medical personnel and equipment where needed. A transnational industrial policy regulating and stimulating airlines and medical device/mask manufacturers in preparation for inevitable lockdowns and surges too

There are several problems with the US (as I see it).

First, we have a president more interested in seeing the stock market remain bullish, and more interested in keeping his job, rather than carrying out his duties to serve the citizens of his country. Some of the seeds for our unpreparedness started back in 2018 when he gutted the NSC's global health unit, and followed that by cutting the CDC funds used to monitor and assist in fighting global pandemics. Last October, Trump chose to discontinue the Predict program (started during the G.W. Bush Administration) which was responsible for tracking exotic pathogens.

Secondly, although I detest the man, Trump is not responsible for the cluster-f@#$ that is the US healthcare system, and he is not responsible for the "me-first" attitude when it comes to dividing executive decisions between the federal government, and the states. Hell, the last time this country worked together as a Union was WW II. However, if strong direction from Washington had been in place back in early February, we'd be in much better shape than we are. Instead, we got "it'll be like a miracle. it'll just go away".

Something that's not talked about much by anyone is the undocumented immigrants here, which number some 10-12 million. You think very many of them have health insurance? or will risk deportation by going to see a doctor? Not likely. Sorry, Monty, this administrations legacy is not going to being its' unshakable leadership, but instead it will be buried in the ground with all those people who are about to die. (and for all I know, one of them could be me...I'm 67)

@Hooahguy

That report is more than a bit of fear-mongering because it focuses on the "do-nothing" scenario. 550,000 dead in the UK? 2.2 million in the US? Even the H1NI out-break of 1918 didn't kill that many in those two countries. However, their assessment of the stress on the health-care system is spot-on, IMHO, and the paper is definitely worth the read.

@ACIN----

[rory_20_uk]

The Imperial College report on COVID-19

It is terrifying. Even with full suppression in place, we would have to keep repeating it in cycles until a vaccine is fully approved and rolled out, which could be a full 18 months from now.

Given the side effects with the last rushed vaccine (Narcolepsy), for many just getting the damn illness would probably be less risky on balance; elderly and inform need a vaccine.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The Imperial College report on COVID-19

It is terrifying. Even with full suppression in place, we would have to keep repeating it in cycles until a vaccine is fully approved and rolled out, which could be a full 18 months from now.

Just assume this is never going to end, restrictions will need to be lifted somewhat or civil society will break down but they won't be lifted completely. Your model here is the Great Plague and th ensuing further waves of Plague, not Spanish Flue.

Meanwhile, all the old wrinklies are excited to get the disease because it's something modern science can't save them from. My parents tell me the local pubs where they live are still doing a brisk trade.

[Pannonian]

Just assume this is never going to end, restrictions will need to be lifted somewhat or civil society will break down but they won't be lifted completely. Your model here is the Great Plague and th ensuing further waves of Plague, not Spanish Flue.

Meanwhile, all the old wrinklies are excited to get the disease because it's something modern science can't save them from. My parents tell me the local pubs where they live are still doing a brisk trade.

Went round to my old (in both senses) neighbours today to check up on them and offer to top up their supplies. Empty shelves in the supermarkets. Is it the same in your area?

[Beskar]

Empty shelves in the supermarkets. Is it the same in your area?

Yup.
I heard though locally the supermarkets are all going to close for 12 hours to completely restock, then open up with "elderly hour" when only elders can buy items for two hours to give them a chance.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Went round to my old (in both senses) neighbours today to check up on them and offer to top up their supplies. Empty shelves in the supermarkets. Is it the same in your area?

Yup, right down to the fresh veg now.

I'm predicting government rationing in the coming weeks.

On the other hand, wandering around Sainsbury's I did see tinned tomatoes, so maybe they're starting to get a grip of it.

I want to say this can't last much longer but my impression is that the panic is spreading, so the first lot of idiots stock up, then the next lot of slightly less selfish idiots panic at the empty shelves, and so on and so on.

[Greyblades]

Eurovision contest is cancelled.

Every cloud...

[Pannonian]

Yup, right down to the fresh veg now.

I'm predicting government rationing in the coming weeks.

On the other hand, wandering around Sainsbury's I did see tinned tomatoes, so maybe they're starting to get a grip of it.

I want to say this can't last much longer but my impression is that the panic is spreading, so the first lot of idiots stock up, then the next lot of slightly less selfish idiots panic at the empty shelves, and so on and so on.

Remember what I said about supply chains?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Remember what I said about supply chains?

Truthfully, not specifically. This isn't a supply-side problem, though, it's a demand-side one.

[Pannonian]

Truthfully, not specifically. This isn't a supply-side problem, though, it's a demand-side one.

Exactly. We are seeing these problems because consumers are anticipating shortages and buying in bulk, and the intact supply chain, still operating as normal, hasn't been able to cope. The problem has been at the consumer end. What do you think will happen when that supply chain gets broken?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Exactly. We are seeing these problems because consumers are anticipating shortages and buying in bulk, and the intact supply chain, still operating as normal, hasn't been able to cope. The problem has been at the consumer end. What do you think will happen when that supply chain gets broken?

Demand is currently 10x what it normally is - do you think supply will drop to 1/10?

[Montmorency]

Apologies for the aside on New York testing capacity, apparently 6000 daily was the target for the beginning of this week, which I assume we've met. Now, last I heard, we should hit 7000 daily by the end of this week, I guess. Hard to sort through the timeline of this rapid news cycle.

First, we have a president more interested in seeing the stock market remain bullish, and more interested in keeping his job, rather than carrying out his duties to serve the citizens of his country. Some of the seeds for our unpreparedness started back in 2018 when he gutted the NSC's global health unit, and followed that by cutting the CDC funds used to monitor and assist in fighting global pandemics. Last October, Trump chose to discontinue the Predict program (started during the G.W. Bush Administration) which was responsible for tracking exotic pathogens.

Secondly, although I detest the man, Trump is not responsible for the cluster-f@#$ that is the US healthcare system, and he is not responsible for the "me-first" attitude when it comes to dividing executive decisions between the federal government, and the states. Hell, the last time this country worked together as a Union was WW II. However, if strong direction from Washington had been in place back in early February, we'd be in much better shape than we are. Instead, we got "it'll be like a miracle. it'll just go away".

Something that's not talked about much by anyone is the undocumented immigrants here, which number some 10-12 million. You think very many of them have health insurance? or will risk deportation by going to see a doctor? Not likely. Sorry, Monty, this administrations legacy is not going to being its' unshakable leadership, but instead it will be buried in the ground with all those people who are about to die. (and for all I know, one of them could be me...I'm 67)

Over the course of WW2 US GDP doubled, and the majority of that GDP was government spending. Wages and living standards generally improved over the course of the war, and we experienced a historically-low amount of either political or military violence in the homeland. AFAIK it was the only war in American 20th century history that gained public approval over time. It was also a time of extensive grassroots organization toward communal and political empowerment, which is what arguably enabled an activist government. Today's society is much more fragmented and passive. Particular sectarian forces have embraced and intensified these facts...

Unauthorized workers are the most vulnerable actors in some of the most vulnerable industries, so events just pushed our underclass even deeper into the margins of poverty. Any forthcoming government relief programs will probably bypass them. Hopefully they have some advantage in mutual aid norms to soften the blow, though this far into the subject maybe we should be looking out for local services organizations to support.

On the subject of harm reduction and utilitarian economic crisis management over the long haul: Hospitals across the country will overflow in about a month. This experience will viscerally change a lot of people's intuitions and calculations about what level and depth of disruption they are willing to accept. If our cultural impatience leads us to tolerate or agitate for state and federal governments overturning social distancing measures just before the caseload reaches critical mass - I'm not sure irony would be the right term for that, but I don't know what is.


Meanwhile, what the hell is the federal government (not) doing?

Yet despite promises of a “whole of government” effort, key agencies — like the Army Corps of Engineers, other parts of the Defense Department, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Department of Veterans Affairs — had not been asked to play much of a role.

Even after Mr. Trump committed to supporting the states on Tuesday, the Army Corps of Engineers said it still had not received direction from the administration.

“We need the federal government to play its role,” Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York said Monday. “The federal government has tremendous capacity.”

Much of that capacity is untapped. Hospital ships are at port. The Department of Veterans Affairs, legally designated as the backup health care system in national emergencies, awaits requests for help. The veterans department has a surplus of beds in many of its 172 hospital centers and a robust number of special rooms for patients with breathing disorders.

The sprawling system of emergency doctors and nurses ready to be deployed by the Department of Health and Human Services — known as the National Disaster Medical System — is also still waiting for orders, other than to staff locations where passengers offloaded from cruise ships are being quarantined.

And the Defense Department, home to 1.3 million active-duty troops and a civilian and military infrastructure that has made planning for national emergencies almost an art form, has yet to be deployed to its fullest capabilities. Senior Pentagon officials say they are ready to assist in any way that is ordered, but they also caution that much of the military’s emergency medical care is designed for combat trauma or natural disasters, and not mass quarantine for infections.

The last time a big infectious disease epidemic emerged, President Barack Obama dispatched nearly 3,000 American troops to Liberia to build hospitals and treatment centers to help fight Ebola. The Pentagon opened a joint command operation at a hotel in Liberia’s capital, Monrovia, to coordinate the international effort to combat the disease, and the American military provided engineers to help construct additional treatment facilities and sent people to train health care workers in West Africa to deal with the crisis.

Shifting party line...
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/...46056513949700

[Pannonian]

Demand is currently 10x what it normally is - do you think supply will drop to 1/10?

5% from our biggest trading partner, according to the rules. Approx. 30,000 journeys per year currently, 1500 passes as a non-EU partner going by other non-member partners. What do you think the exercises and plans to turn the Dover-London route into a giant customs post were? When I quoted the experts on this issue, I was pooh-poohed as obviously things won't get that bad. We've now seen a taster of what it's going to be like, except the supply-side hasn't yet been shrunk. The supply-side is working normally, and we're already seeing empty shelves.

Let's have a referendum instructing the government to solve the Coronavirus problem. I'm sure the Will of the People will be a mandate that will solves all problems.

[Montmorency]

You can never pile on too much.

[ReluctantSamurai]

What I want to know is who the 8 dead-beats who voted against the Families First Coronavirus Response Act Those idiots need to be drawn and quartered....

Am I the only one who begins and ends the day with the morbid ritual of reviewing the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Interactive World Map?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

On the subject of harm reduction and utilitarian economic crisis management over the long haul: Hospitals across the country will overflow in about a month.

Here in the States, we are trending about 10 days behind the Italians. At our current pace, confirmed cases are doubling every 5 days, although some of the new reports are undoubtedly due to the increasing number of tests being conducted.

[ReluctantSamurai]

On the lighter side of all this, is what some countries consider "essential" when ordering shut-downs:

But it turns out that what’s “essential” can vary from country to country. Amsterdam’s marijuana-supplying coffee shops remain open. Belgium’s french-fry stands are still serving up doses of greasy potatoes. Parisian wine shops — bien sûr — can still be paid a visit.

In Berlin, authorities have included bike shops on the list of essential services — a perhaps understandable measure at a time when people are being urged to avoid public transportation.

Italy remains the European country hardest-hit by the coronavirus, and there are few exceptions to its near-total shutdown. But newsstands remain open, a quaint and sweet measure that allows older residents a chance to read the papers. A small number of bread shops and bakeries have decided to stay open for takeaway service or delivery. And there is at least one Roman gelateria doing deliveries

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...s-latest-news/

[Csargo]

What I want to know is who the 8 dead-beats who voted against the Families First Coronavirus Response Act Those idiots need to be drawn and quartered....

Am I the only one who begins and ends the day with the morbid ritual of reviewing the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Interactive World Map?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html



Here in the States, we are trending about 10 days behind the Italians. At our current pace, confirmed cases are doubling every 5 days, although some of the new reports are undoubtedly due to the increasing number of tests being conducted.

I've been doing the same, and I found this site today https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[a completely inoffensive name]

I highly recommend not staring at the numbers or the news all day.

Take this time to draw, paint, practice an instrument and otherwise doing things that bring joy into your life.
Spend your down time with your kids, read your favorite novels and dusty books sitting on the shelf.

Don't be a dick because you are stressed out.

[Greyblades]

Hell, maybe you could even play some total war.

[Montmorency]

Minnesota and Vermont declare grocery store workers emergency personnel eligible for such benefits as free childcare.

Spitballing on pandemic relief: Take whatever cash relief program gets implemented, and attach bonuses to the receipt of a completed census form.

More comparisons of South Korea and US in their responses. Interesting: The first COVID-19 case was identified on the same day in both countries.


Article on the appalling lack of data on COVID-19 prevalence and icidents rates and the mortality of the disease, as well as the lack of data on the efficacy of social distancing measures given their potential enormous medium-term costs.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

The author, John Ioannidis, even I know has stature as an academic superstar.

Counterpoint: An immediate rebuttal published on the same site, arguing that we already know what happens (China, Iran, Italy) without control measures, and that exponential growth is inevitable without controls until herd immunity is reached (in author's assertion ~half the population).
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/...inst-covid-19/

Samurai might be especially interested in the debate.

What I want to know is who the 8 dead-beats who voted against the Families First Coronavirus Response Act Those idiots need to be drawn and quartered....

https://www.esquire.com/news-politic...elief-package/


I'm not sure, but speculators may be worse than profiteers. Speculators with inside information who help suppress threat response while pulling up stakes - that's angry mob territory. All of that, on top of being one of the 3 Senators who voted against the 2012 STOCK Act, which banned Congressional insider trading from confidential information - that's military tribunal territory.
https://www.propublica.org/article/s...s-preparedness
https://www.politifact.com/factcheck...against-ban-i/
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/81819...ts-on-covid-19

Senator Dumped Up to $1.6 Million of Stock After Reassuring Public About Coronavirus Preparedness
Intelligence Chair Richard Burr’s selloff came around the time he was receiving daily briefings on the health threat.

Soon after he offered public assurances that the government was ready to battle the coronavirus, the powerful chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Richard Burr, sold off a significant percentage of his stocks, unloading between $582,029 and $1.56 million of his holdings on Feb. 13 in 29 separate transactions.
[...]
Burr is not a particularly wealthy member of the Senate: Roll Call estimated his net worth at $1.7 million in 2018, indicating that the February sales significantly shaped his financial fortunes and spared him from some of the pain that many Americans are now facing.
[...]
According to the NPR report, Burr told attendees of the luncheon held at the Capitol Hill Club: “There’s one thing that I can tell you about this: It is much more aggressive in its transmission than anything that we have seen in recent history ... It is probably more akin to the 1918 pandemic.”

Burr’s public comments had been considerably less dire. In a Feb. 7 op-ed that he co-authored with another senator, he assured the public that “the United States today is better prepared than ever before to face emerging public health threats, like the coronavirus.” He wrote, “No matter the outbreak or threat, Congress and the federal government have been vigilant in identifying gaps in its readiness efforts and improving its response capabilities.”

Members of Congress are required by law to disclose their securities transactions.

Burr was one of just three senators who in 2012 opposed the bill that explicitly barred lawmakers and their staff from using nonpublic information for trades and required regular disclosure of those trades. In opposing the bill, Burr argued at the time that insider trading laws already applied to members of Congress. President Barack Obama signed the bill, known as the STOCK Act, that year.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Kinda figured all the "Nays" were rank-and-file Republicans, although not all of them Trump supporters. Rand Paul (R-KY) was also the only "Nay" vote on the $8.3 billion coronavirus spending bill the Senate passed earlier this month. That he's voted this way might be suggested by a statement he made last year concerning Ebola, showing a similar lack of detail as Trump:

Ebola is “incredibly contagious” [and] can spread from one person to another standing three feet away.

(Ebola is spread through transmission of bodily fluids).

All 8 Senators are in states that currently have low incidences of COVID-19 cases except Texas which has the 10th most

[Montmorency]

More promising applications in breaking chains of transmission, courtesy of Italy.
https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/st...79081293352964

How one small town at the center of the outbreak has cut infections virtually to zero: test all 3,300 in town, isolate the 3 percent who tested positive. Infection rate 10 days later down to .3 percent.

We can be less sanguine about yet another Senator discovered to be inside-trading off pandemic briefings. And she's the wife of the Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange. Cool.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/sen-ke...virus-briefing

The other inside trading guy, Richard Burr, contributed to an immense cosmic irony by posting this in January.
https://twitter.com/SenatorBurr/stat...89568457531392


Worst of all, millions of unemployment insurance claims imminent.

[Hooahguy]

New York City is 2-3 weeks away from exhausting their stocks in key supplies. Every day that goes by I get more anxious. Where I am now it doesn't seem like a shelter in place will be ordered soon for my city, but every day that goes by it seems likelier. Of the report I saw, over half of the new cases today were under 40. And yet when I walk my dog I see people congregating and its freaking me out.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Some of these are absolutely, friggin' hilarious:

https://www.usnews.com/cartoons/donald-trump

Coming to a city near you: (except for the picture of Mao, maybe)

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-cou...er-of-epidemic

[Beskar]