Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
Hopefully 4 years of Biden will be a soft reset enabling both parties to pull themselves together and pretend the previous decade didn't happen
Hello, one party is fascist. They're committed to their course.

Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
I give you a 90% on not getting that biden term, all hinges on the running mate and by declaring it'd be female he's cornered himself into a number of bad options.

Harris or warren and he's done, utter trash, pence would evicerate them. Clinton, even worse, not only is he done he breaks the party over her knee, klobuchar would be uninspiring but ok, puts him up to 20% chance I think. Gabbard, yeah he's not that brave, she'd be great for catching republicans but the dem's would throw a fit. Williamson, literally who. Gillibrand, well she's photogenic but methinks jumping on the metoo pile over franken and bubba isnt going to make biden all that eager.
You had a shallow enough knowledge of American politics to write this - did you know there are woman Democrats outside the 2020 primary field? - but why didn't you feel the need for even a pretense of assembling an analysis to support any of it? The image of Mike Pence, who Republicans think is a wet noodle, "eviscerating" the famously-incisive cross-examiners Harris or Warren is comical in particular.


The starting point against which to set expectations is that the polling has for the past year been pretty consistent with a Biden victory in the low-50s over Trump in the mid-40s, with very little variation. And that was before the pandemic. There's your nail upon which to hang any revision or update, and the few unpredictable* factors that have the potential to detectably influence the distribution of votes (assuming a Trump-Biden race) are a phenomenal economic rebound into Q4, or the descent of a new wave of COVID around election day. (Which is why we need national mail-in voting legislation.)

If we have an election we can expect Trump will lose it, unless he does something like summon the military to forcibly lock down cities in battleground states on Election Day.

*By this I don't mean to imply they can't be affected by policy