Climate Change Thread

[edyzmedieval]

So... thoughts on the absolute disaster that happened in Texas because of the storm? Climate change going ballistic on us?

[a completely inoffensive name]

So... thoughts on the absolute disaster that happened in Texas because of the storm? Climate change going ballistic on us?

Winter behavior in general is not as easily understood as summer. It is more difficult to say that this particular polar vortex behavior is from climate change than say a prolonged or intensive heat wave.
That being said, the world seems to be finally laying the groundwork for decarbonization and the climate scientists I follow on twitter seem to be more optimistic over the past year. If countries continue to follow through on their pledges, which is looking more likely due to the continued drop in price for renewables and storage, then we could be looking at 3 degrees worst case (vs 4-5 degrees a few years ago). With a bigger push we can still get to 2-2.5 degrees by 2100. It is very unlikely we will hit 1.5 degrees because of the multi decade delays in action.

Two big unknowns at the moment:
How fast can we decarbonize with the current state of electrical grids.
When or even who will start moving first in carbon sequestration deployment and/or geoengineering.

[Montmorency]

That being said, the world seems to be finally laying the groundwork for decarbonization and the climate scientists I follow on twitter seem to be more optimistic over the past year. If countries continue to follow through on their pledges, which is looking more likely due to the continued drop in price for renewables and storage, then we could be looking at 3 degrees worst case (vs 4-5 degrees a few years ago). With a bigger push we can still get to 2-2.5 degrees by 2100. It is very unlikely we will hit 1.5 degrees because of the multi decade delays in action.

When or even who will start moving first in carbon sequestration deployment and/or geoengineering.

I think we are still fucked.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Forgot about the fact that in 2013, 23 of 24 Republican Representatives in the House voted against relief aid to NY and NJ in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, as well as (then newly elected) Cruz and fellow GOP Senator John Cornyn:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...z-sandy-relief

[a completely inoffensive name]

There is nothing contradictory in those statements.

[Montmorency]

Oh, there's obvious tension between "we're fucked" and "the world seems to be finally laying the groundwork for decarbonization and the climate scientists I follow on twitter seem to be more optimistic over the past year." I guess it depends on one's definition of "we're" and "fucked" - the IEA report from a year ago outlining +~3* F by 2100 given contemporary trends would at least probably allow for the survival of global civilization in its familiar form.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Oh, there's obvious tension between "we're fucked" and "the world seems to be finally laying the groundwork for decarbonization and the climate scientists I follow on twitter seem to be more optimistic over the past year." I guess it depends on one's definition of "we're" and "fucked" - the IEA report from a year ago outlining +~3* F by 2100 given contemporary trends would at least probably allow for the survival of global civilization in its familiar form.

Business as usual 2010 was 4-5 degrees, literally uninhabitable to 95% of multicellular life on earth.
Business as usual 2021 is 3 degrees, still fucked but not a hard reset for the planet.
Optimistic 2021 is 2-2.5 degrees and we are still engaged in massive adaption and a commitment to carbon capture and storage which has yet to begin in earnest.

So yeah, we are fucked. My only hope is that the trends only accelerate from here. Coal is projected to be removed from US electrical generation entirely by 2027. Countries are pursuing carbon neutral policies despite US absence and without any free-riders to be seen. Carbon heavy industries are preparing for the future, anticipating increasing hostility and investing into new technologies. Plastic industry is pursuing chemical recycling methods to make all types of plastic re-usable. Wonks are slowly turning back the negative perception of nuclear. Economics of renewables is already cost competitive to the point where planned orders of new coal plants in India and other countries have been cancelled, to be filled by solar plants.

At the same time, the 21st continues to be the century of biochemistry. We are unraveling the multi-faceted phenomenon of aging and scientists are already proposing serious therapies to mitigate its deleterious affects. So we could all be destined to be healthy centenarians, in which case we will all get to die by our own climate choices. Maybe that mentality will finally provide the impetus to make long-term thinking the default instead of the exception.

[Hooahguy]

So yeah, we are fucked. My only hope is that the trends only accelerate from here. Coal is projected to be removed from US electrical generation entirely by 2027. Countries are pursuing carbon neutral policies despite US absence and without any free-riders to be seen. Carbon heavy industries are preparing for the future, anticipating increasing hostility and investing into new technologies. Plastic industry is pursuing chemical recycling methods to make all types of plastic re-usable. Wonks are slowly turning back the negative perception of nuclear. Economics of renewables is already cost competitive to the point where planned orders of new coal plants in India and other countries have been cancelled, to be filled by solar plants.

This is actually an interesting point- businesses appear to be taking a stronger stance against climate change, even leading the way in some cases. Lots of major companies have committed to a goal of net zero carbon. And last summer, Microsoft stated its goal was to become carbon negative by 2030, which is pretty significant considering their size. And Coca-Cola just tested their first paper bottle (with PepsiCo reportedly in hot pursuit). While segments of the economy are certainly fighting tooth and nail against such changes (hence why federal climate action is still necessary), it is an encouraging trend that an increasing number of companies are adopting policies and practices that are better for the environment due to a combination of risk management, internal pressure from staff, and external pressure.

[ReluctantSamurai]

The record cold? Yes. The absolute disaster? No. Despite the lame attempt by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (and the habitual Fox News liar, Tucker Carlson) to blame windmills as the reason for the temporary collapse of the Texas power grid, windmills work just fine here in Michigan and elsewhere during the winter. We just had our first sub-zero temperature this winter a few nights ago, and not a single home went without power, nor a single windmill froze up due to the cold.

This is a failure of leadership to plan for such an emergency by winterizing wellheads, pumping stations, and windmill equipment. Texas had a similar event back in 2011, and they obviously didn't learn a thing. Leadership would rather pander to Big Oil by not enacting regulation that requires winterizing equipment, and laying up reserves for emergencies, all of which requires investment which those companies would rather not spend. Kinda like insurance...you may go years making premium payments with no return, but when disaster strikes, you are covered.

The whole mess was avoidable, and it will be interesting to see where the Texas corporate politicians try to find a scapegoat. It's also rather ironic, that the state most vehement about limiting Federal Government involvement in local matters, went running quickly to Washington for disaster aid...

Of course there's this moron telling fellow Texan's to suck it up and deal with it:

https://www.businessinsider.com/rick...er-grid-2021-2