Winter behavior in general is not as easily understood as summer. It is more difficult to say that this particular polar vortex behavior is from climate change than say a prolonged or intensive heat wave.
That being said, the world seems to be finally laying the groundwork for decarbonization and the climate scientists I follow on twitter seem to be more optimistic over the past year. If countries continue to follow through on their pledges, which is looking more likely due to the continued drop in price for renewables and storage, then we could be looking at 3 degrees worst case (vs 4-5 degrees a few years ago). With a bigger push we can still get to 2-2.5 degrees by 2100. It is very unlikely we will hit 1.5 degrees because of the multi decade delays in action.
Two big unknowns at the moment:
How fast can we decarbonize with the current state of electrical grids.
When or even who will start moving first in carbon sequestration deployment and/or geoengineering.
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