Sorceror 17er Game Thread

[Raskolnikov]

:/ :/ :/

Sleep, why do you think these reads are bad? And what do you make of the people sharing them too (on top of my head, zack, HK, me earlier)?

[Cuthillius]

no but i can do so now:

- for starters you were heavily under pressure already before people hopped off

- your vote was the 2nd on ladd wagon and there was no guarantee people would follow it

- hypothetically in a world where you are teamed with ladd, maybe people get scared and go elsewhere that day and you look good down the line. or people go back onto you and you flip and decide to clear ladd. its not a bad move at all if youre in a spot where a lot of the team is suspected (and this is added to the fact that at the time monstr's slot was obviously a nonfactor)

- altho the sorc is technically kp, it doesnt actually change the balance of kills in this setup at all. it guarantees a town death but gives another kill right back into the hands of town, so the effect is net neutral. the only thing it does is slightly expand the timescale the game is played on, which i think is +town, but the perceived benefit of flipping the n3 sorc so far seems to have been greater than what i consider the actual utility of the mafia sorc to be


this is all just stuff thats kicking around in my head. by itself it remains just a possible explanation but my worry was that you didnt feel like you came into the day primed to draw conclusions off the flip, and thats frequently the case where mafia members bus a teammate and then end up coasting because they dont know where to go

its possible im overthinking this but thats why i wanted to talk to you to get a sense of how ur reading the game

a) meh

b) sure, but i can snap vote rask there and have zero people ever get mad about it

ladd doesn't go over if i don't vote there period, there was too much resistance itt

c) in a spot where most of the team is suspected only really works if there's a third wolf likely to die there alongside me/ladd

otherwise again there's really no point; also there are very few wolf partners i'm willingly going to sacrifice myself for because i trust my ability to post myself into a good position a lot more than most players, and i just don't plan for myself dying like that

like if ladd was likely going to go down regardless sure maybe i toss a vote there in a good spot if it makes me look good but not for no reason when it brings him up into actual contention

self-pressing onto rask is 100% the easiest and healthiest option in every world that keeps two good wolves alive without looking weird after a flip at all

d) the n3 sorc guarantees more deaths

as someone who's won as a wolf in desperado type setups it's not a guaranteed two villagers dead but it's definitely >rand two villagers dead, wolves don't like giving that up, and knowing that it's out there is going to distract villagers and throw things up in the air beyond just the impact of the mechanical effect

e) i mean or you could just look at the fact that i kinda yolo'd the ladd vote because i didn't really know what i wanted to do yesterday, realize that i didn't really spend a lot of time on the thread overnight, and wonder in what possible worlds i would feel strongly about the direction i wanted to go in today

[Dobby]

I'm ready to fight ppl over the bomb, I don't want to be misyeeted

[katze]

coming back to this post post-flip because i think it sums up pretty much where i'm at atm post-flip and i wanna work off of it a bit. my world view didn't change all that much with dolby flipping red even though i wasn't really on him a ton, i don't imagine many people's worldviews did either.


i think the statement stands that the rest of the team probably isn't HK/Katze. i've soured a little on kat in terms of her being near the top of my v list but i still think she is >rand v. i'm slightly warming up to the idea that newcomb may be v this game and i still give her credit for noticing things that I did and pushing on those things on d1 in regard to him even if we both may end up having been wrong about them. more concerned about the process than the results and i like what she's shown more than i haven't. if there's one thing that's skeeved me a little it was her post earlier d2 where she wrote a wallpost with her continued issues about newcomb and dropped the mic on that post in a way that felt more like it was framed to make newcomb look bad without much deference to his thoughts, but i assume this is just a continuation of the weird dynamic they have with kat's expectations/newcomb's ignorance of kat's meta (lmao) and the repercussions therein


HK i think has lots of good posts (especially relative to his actual postcount!) and I feel like its been very easy for me to follow along with his progressions while i read the thread. his response to newcomb today in trying to figure out if we had w/w/w, w/w/v, or v/v/w wagons yesterday and then extrapolating that to a shortened suspect list of [dolby, dobby, ender] looks really good.





Like, its not just that he places dolby as his 1st from that list, but the way he clears kat, sleep, and myself from that list, particularly myself and sleep and going on to say he doesn't have reads on us when he should. since i think kat and sleep are both >rand v, that would be a hell of a position to take when he'd be well within his right to suspect all 3 of us there without getting much flak for it. again, i like the process here and in other parts of his iso. i suppose if dobby and ender is 0 wolves, it might have been fine for him to just rule of 3 two separate categories of folks and score some bus credit on dolby/monstr but i still think it comes out looking clean.





i'm definitely still in the possible camp but moving away from probable where i've been sitting for a good chunk of the game. i think the frustration he's shown toward zack last night plus the point he's made about being night/day from his wildcard game are pretty valid. its just hard to imagine newc on this team and him basically mailing in EOD yesterday when he'd know he'd be a candidate AND another, strong wolf gets wagoned/lunched (i mnight be mis-attributing some agency here because the ladd vote was really quick but i still feel like newcomb shows a bit more urgency to command that EOD rather than just kind of accept it?) (i don't think newcomb was at EOD but i believe he was there leading up to it, i guess i should double check this but i'm lazy)







this feels like the crux of the game for me, at this point? with a village read on newcomb starting to take shape, my world view doesn't really make sense unless one of zack/cuth is wrong on their v read here. and i mean, its werewolf, so its obviously very possible both are just correct and we have a deep wolf or two in either the bussers or a misclear of the sleep/kat/HK/newc quartet (list potentially not all-inclusive, its late).

[...]


cape i am straight up struggling to solve. a lot of his posting has felt to me like "Here's a post, here's a fact, elaboration, done" but then I don't really see the process behind it a ton. i also feel like there's been lots of good thoughts or questions that have just been left dangling behind. also the weird shade that calls me out for not finding ladd in a room full of players with equal or more experience with ladd than me. i am setting that aside a bit because i don't want to make reads too much based around how people poke and prod at me, but that just felt designed like a hit piece on me rather than coming from an inquisitive position. this could very much be a me problem but i'm just having trouble connecting the dots on cape's posting ITG and how he's getting from a->b a lot of times or a better way to put it maybe, where his posting begins and where his thought process ends? I feel like pound for pound, there's more empty questions in cape's iso that either 1) i can't see how they help him solve the game or 2) if/how he follows up on it later in the game?

er, to address the concern on me real quick because i think ik what ur talking about, i straight up expected a MU head moderator to have more than zero idea what was going on with the recent champs seasons, i dropped it because i'm not going to call him a liar because regardless of alignment he probably isn't.



anyway, the main reason i quoted this post is because i still feel pretty decently about HK being a villager and this post ironically makes me feel a lot better about you because you're kinda explaining in bigger words what my gut was kinda saying + adding more to it that i hadn't even really considered

i vaguely remember people throwing his name out as a potential wolf, idk if it still really is since i'm kinda jumping back and forth between the current page and catching up, but i don't believe it's a hit



as for cape, it's weird - i associate him with a more mechanical playstyle (not like, with game mechanics, but in the robotic sense) so none of what you type out here is extremely surprising to me, my bigger conerns with cape aren't what he's posting but what he's not posting

im thinking back to my last game with cape where i was mafia and he was town (h21g10) and i felt like he became borderline low hanging fruit that game because of a less inspired D1; and i was essentially able to just keep throwing around "underwhelming" as a way to keep him PoEd - which even persisted after i flipped mafia - so im kinda like... i feel like it's my job to read him correctly here?

and i dunno. i still don't want him to die today because i think i can, but if you told me to read him correctly right now i'd probably say >rand mafia

[Raskolnikov]

Is there a way to look at the first posts of an ISO with more than 100 posts?

[Sleep]

on the topic of Montmorency and the ladd wagon.

please look at #961 and #964

like Mont goes from outright shading Winston for the vote on ladd, to joining Winston by EOD. I am either paranoid at an obvtown move or I am Sherlock Holmes

man... 1604 says nothing

I have a feeling mafia is Mont this game. Too many things keep piling up

Vote: Montmorency

I think the team could simply be mont/dobby

Sleep, why do you think these reads are bad? And what do you make of the people sharing them too (on top of my head, zack, HK, me earlier)?

theyre lazy, theres no depth of thought, hes shallowly pointing at things and calling them bad without real elaboration on why it comes from a wolf

he did similar in how he tried to push csargo and winston yesterday


it doesnt look like genuine solving, ppl keep defending him to me and i go back and forth in my head but i look atthese and i struggle to sy "these are real woof reads that cape really believes in"

[Dobby]

Katzd have you said anything about me this game

Cuz I'm only interested in having thoughts based on me atp

[Dobby]

Or my reads on you or smth

[Sleep]

a) meh

b) sure, but i can snap vote rask there and have zero people ever get mad about it

ladd doesn't go over if i don't vote there period, there was too much resistance itt

c) in a spot where most of the team is suspected only really works if there's a third wolf likely to die there alongside me/ladd

otherwise again there's really no point; also there are very few wolf partners i'm willingly going to sacrifice myself for because i trust my ability to post myself into a good position a lot more than most players, and i just don't plan for myself dying like that

like if ladd was likely going to go down regardless sure maybe i toss a vote there in a good spot if it makes me look good but not for no reason when it brings him up into actual contention

self-pressing onto rask is 100% the easiest and healthiest option in every world that keeps two good wolves alive without looking weird after a flip at all

d) the n3 sorc guarantees more deaths

as someone who's won as a wolf in desperado type setups it's not a guaranteed two villagers dead but it's definitely >rand two villagers dead, wolves don't like giving that up, and knowing that it's out there is going to distract villagers and throw things up in the air beyond just the impact of the mechanical effect

e) i mean or you could just look at the fact that i kinda yolo'd the ladd vote because i didn't really know what i wanted to do yesterday, realize that i didn't really spend a lot of time on the thread overnight, and wonder in what possible worlds i would feel strongly about the direction i wanted to go in today

all right, point taken about self pres'ing onto rask

fwiw i disagree on the n3 sorc but recognize that its entirely possible u believe what ur saying about it

thanks for the talk, i dont have anything more i want to ask u about right now

[katze]

None of these are that strong but I have strong reasons to call others villagery and I don't really have many for Katze.

:p i read the future

[nebjiamn]

as for cape, it's weird - i associate him with a more mechanical playstyle (not like, with game mechanics, but in the robotic sense) so none of what you type out here is extremely surprising to me, my bigger conerns with cape aren't what he's posting but what he's not posting

this resonates with me quite a bit

[Sleep]

unvote: cuth

vote: cape90

[katze]

Katzd have you said anything about me this game

Cuz I'm only interested in having thoughts based on me atp

i think i have? i've definitely thought about you

im at a point where i personally don't find you villagery but i don't want to go against sunbaes word unless i literally feel like there's no other options tbh

i could probably sum up my concerns with you if necessary but i don't think it is

[Raskolnikov]

(...)

as for cape, it's weird - i associate him with a more mechanical playstyle (not like, with game mechanics, but in the robotic sense) so none of what you type out here is extremely surprising to me, my bigger conerns with cape aren't what he's posting but what he's not posting

im thinking back to my last game with cape where i was mafia and he was town (h21g10) and i felt like he became borderline low hanging fruit that game because of a less inspired D1; and i was essentially able to just keep throwing around "underwhelming" as a way to keep him PoEd - which even persisted after i flipped mafia - so im kinda like... i feel like it's my job to read him correctly here?

and i dunno. i still don't want him to die today because i think i can, but if you told me to read him correctly right now i'd probably say >rand mafia

I am staring at that last line. u don't want him to die because you think u can find him villa given enough time? posts? what? but rn u'd say maf?

[Raskolnikov]

also anyone knowing the tally?

[katze]

Distancing as the first thing you do when subbing in when I'm townreading his slot would be pretty next level and also out of character for dolby. AND yes he wasn't under pressure. But yeah that shouldn't be clearing its just something I wanted to add when I saw it wuotef

the vote is probably flat out NAI and arguing about it is silly given it's phrased like a joke and i doubt dolby subs in and does/doesn't make the joke because you are/aren't in wolf chat

[katze]

I am staring at that last line. u don't want him to die because you think u can find him villa given enough time? posts? what? but rn u'd say maf?

you may be an open book, raskolnikov, but i'm a bit more complicated than that. the inner mechaniations of my mind are an engima.

(yeah that sounds about right, it's selfish and i'm not going to shield him off of 'i think if he's town ill find him' but if there's 2 wagons at eod and cape is one and the other is someone i suspect i'm probably voting the one that isn't cape)

[Sleep]

also anyone knowing the tally?

heres an unofficial vc:

Players Votes

Cape90 3 (nebjiamn, Dobby, Sleep)
EnderWiggin 1 (zack)
nebjiamn 1 (Montmorency)
Montmorency 1 (Cape90)
katze 1 (Cuthillius)
Dobby 1 (hollowkatt)
Newcomb 1 (Raskolnikov)


i want to note for the record that at the time of his vote, cape was the 3rd vote on monty (cuth and rask would later unvote)

[katze]

@Dobby:

why are you so concerned about everyones take on you specifically? you're starting to sound like a katze

[Cape90]

y do u feel ur spewed town?

how I treated Dolby

ladd playing very dodgy around me and ladd's comments on the you vs me thing.

Felt like ladd was trying not to step on my toes

[Raskolnikov]

you may be an open book, raskolnikov, but i'm a bit more complicated than that. the inner mechaniations of my mind are an engima.

(yeah that sounds about right, it's selfish and i'm not going to shield him off of 'i think if he's town ill find him' but if there's 2 wagons at eod and cape is one and the other is someone i suspect i'm probably voting the one that isn't cape)

I am not sure what I have done to be patronised like that but !%?;

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

nah I am kidding. Call me Raskol, it's shorter :p

[Sleep]

how I treated Dolby

ladd playing very dodgy around me and ladd's comments on the you vs me thing.

Felt like ladd was trying not to step on my toes

- i dont buy that going after dolby is clearing especially when a lot of people jumped on him right away

- i dont see how him being dodgy and defending u by calling u town but not elaborating on it when i pressed him spews u town

- wdym he was "tying not to step on your toes"?

[hollowkatt]

I'm nit sure I understand what you're saying here, are u implying I might be influential in the chop and that'd lead to you? Because lol give me one example of a player that listens to me/,has read my posts and gone "yes this is good I agree it makes sense", just one please.

I'm definitely not sure you're my choice for today if that's your impression. I literally wrote an updated readslist with s lot of alternatives presented. I know others are Tring you and among them some people I trust, so it's not like I have locked in and not looking elsewhere, I just don't feel like your answers have done anything to help me find you here. It might just be a difference in playstyles but I don't want to blame it on that. Your case on me (that I answered with a list of 8 points) where some stuff where you misreading what I wrote (as in, yesterday as in second half of d1) etc, which you use to build a case, and peeling off the things I refute there, its not much left of your "case", and sure I might not have a lot going for me but like, I'd at least understand that focus if you chose it.


Also I hate it when ppl say "chop me" cuzmy instinct is to double down

No, here's what I'm trying to say:

sunbae said if we chop town he's contemplating giving you the vest to blow someone up. It's pretty clear to me that I'm the person you'd most want to explode, which is fine I get it.
But if that's the plan then chop me today as the "townie" that dies to give you the vest so that you have to blow someone else up.

Basically it's like this:

I know I'm POE and I know I'm likely not posting out of it. That's fine. Instead of continually saying "we really ought to look into HK" resolve me today. Then give you the vest tonight. Make a good decision.

We're currently very far ahead and the mafia have no extra KP after Ladd was chopped. We have time to make mistakes/clear POE via killing them.

It's like MtG, as long as at the end of the day we're +2 on the wolves it doesn't matter how many townies are actually alive, we're still winning this game. Town bodies dying are irrelevant to actually winning the game. We know who the PR are, they're the designated NKs yeah?

That leaves us in the POE to either resolve ourselves or get resolved. It's not "oh woe is me" it's an antiseptic way of reducing possibilities and guiding us towards a mathematical lock on winning the game.

I guess it doesn't matter if I'm the chop today if you promise to blow me up tomorrow

[Raskolnikov]

fwiw katze I thought that part of your post was towny for lacking self awareness ("how will I look with this post" isn't there, but "hey I am the coolest katze champ goat and I'll do it" is, which makes me think that's an OK post)

[hollowkatt]

I'm a bad vest target b/c I have zero impulse control.

[Sleep]

- i dont buy that going after dolby is clearing especially when a lot of people jumped on him right away

- i dont see how him being dodgy and defending u by calling u town but not elaborating on it when i pressed him spews u town

- wdym he was "tying not to step on your toes"?

like no offense but theres a lot of players here ladd might not want to step on the toes of as wolf and ur not near the top of that list.....

[katze]

Katze is competent sure. I have spent the last 20 minutes reading through their MU wolf games both on Katze and their turbo alt and I'm rock solid confident in this read now. As wolf katze is more likely to use self-depreciating humor, is more likely to crack jokes instead of solving, and is more likely to run the game on "shitpost" mode for lack of better terms than they are as town.

I did not say polarized btw, I said I think there's enough of a difference to call that out and make a read based on it.

It is a duality for me. Katze feels obvs town, newcomb does not feel obvs town. If my post reflects that it's because that's what I'm thinking.

I started your ISO with the intention of finding good stuff. The reason that didn't continue is because I wasn't finding more good stuff. I didn't go into your ISO with the intent to paint you as poorly as possible, that just happened

this is my new favorite chain of posts

i still feel pretty good about HK being a villager although my first thought of "i dont think a wolf ever writes this about v!me" is probably ambitious

[nebjiamn]

I'm a bad vest target b/c I have zero impulse control.

well now i want sunbae to target you even more

[Dobby]

the vote is probably flat out NAI and arguing about it is silly given it's phrased like a joke and i doubt dolby subs in and does/doesn't make the joke because you are/aren't in wolf chat

I think I wrote that later about the vote but at first i thought he meant "can only be this person that's mafia"

But I was dum cuz yeah it's just a joke about dobby/dolby there can only be one so yeah it's nai

[Raskolnikov]

I'm a bad vest target b/c I have zero impulse control.

I'd insert a sexual joke here but it will get me shaded. big sad.


thanks Sleep for the tally!