17er Saints and Martyrs

[Arctic]

you think she busses all 3 partners d1? she has 3 wolves in her POE d1. I dont think that's just being a townsided wolf

she didn't bus syn, she just let it happen, and the post of "1 wolf off-wagon" is not a poe, in fact in that original post she is literally suggesting that 2 of the wolves are on the syn wagon (me and jan, who are both town)

[nebjiamn]

i'll copy ladd but with 99% less effort

v
zack
hally
rask
benneh

light v
ender
jan
ladd?

light w
gh?

benneh maybe too high but their wallpost is tbh probably the villageriest thing in the entire thread

hally because i find myself mindmelding with a lot of their posts, they seem liek they dont give a shit and just push on whatever big villa energy etc

rask kind of occupying the same space just smaller and more unhinged

jan having basically 3 reads this entire game and 2 of them being v charitable v reads is doing ntohing for his wincon if hes a wolf which im fine with for day 1

gh bad tocuh on logic, havnet hugely liked the way hes spent his ofcus so far this game too lazy to elaborate

everyone else nfc

syn had the thing where he basically ignored me when i asked him why he was w reading ender, he did say things later but eh

murska jan w reads them which predisposes me to do the same, they also seem like the kind of player/style id struggle to get a read on, literally zero opinion

vanta maybe their saying they're just going to read ppl based on avatar is actually openwolfing and i shouldnt be giving them a pass idk

so ye none of the lowposter yeets are particularly inpsiring but ig thats par for the course

i'm ro3ing the latter half of this post where gemma talks about people they hve 'nfc' on

also the read on vanta doesn't seem like a w/w one. that feels like sincere shade

[EnderWiggin]

I am blaming Benneh for starting the trend that stopped me hard pushing Gemma D2.

[Arctic]

Um
I don't think I've bussed d1 in like 2+ years but I could be misremembering ^^'

you are misremembering then

[EnderWiggin]

gonna be honest idk what the fuck ender has been doing all game as either alignment

Living my best life.

[Raskolnikov]

i think they did a lot of stuff a wolf doesn't bother to. like making the insane tinfoil w/w read on you and murska. or asking here if the factional is mandatory (to investigate murska's claim, after the supposed save, which wolves would know about exactly how it went down)

Maybe that's you wolfing, but what about Vanta's? (I mean I am not sure but it makes more sense rn than Wisdom or even Ender lol)

[Wisdom]

Vote: Vanta

Looks like kingmaking, but I feels good enough for now. Yeet Vanta, if wrong then yeet me then have fun in f3.

I really just think it's Vanta though.

[Raskolnikov]

I am blaming Benneh for starting the trend that stopped me hard pushing Gemma D2.

I am blaming you for reading Benneh's posts.

[Wisdom]

you are misremembering then

What game did you link?

[EnderWiggin]

Also excuse me I:

Pushed Syn D1 (With a side of Jan that was wrong but Syn was pretty much my main vote all day.)
Started D2 by pushing Arctic, but then moving to Gemma.
After the PR claim I then had Visor as my biggest sus up until the last 12 hours where...
I tried to push Gemma (which didn't get enough traction) and then wilded off to Benneh (that I was never staying on) and then decided I didn't want to accidentally kill a PR because I felt adrift (townreading Visor really fucked with me) so left my vote on a vanity wagon.

D3/D4 I was lost in the woods with a side of sussing Gemma, but I will admit at that point I had spun into not having a solid grasp of the game. But my first day and most of day 2 was actually ~moderately on point with some weird personal scumreads (Sorry Arctic/Jan)

[nebjiamn]

my take on ender is that he is spewed town by gemma, reasonably confidently. felt like she pretty simply tmi'ing him all of day 1. and i still think his eod2 is villagery

i think the "what is their wincon" argument to townread wisdom is silly because vanta is doing nothing to advance their wincon either lol, neither is ender, so unless you think it's someone deeper then this point is moot

[EnderWiggin]

I am blaming you for reading Benneh's posts.

You know what, you're right.

[nebjiamn]

i kinda only came here to make a throwaway vote on the wagon with the composition i liked the most or jst sheeping a townread but if i actually voted who i think is most likely to flip wolf + gain traction it'd be gemma but then i'd have to pretend i don't see who's voting her lo

a lock clearing post if i've ever seen one (EOD1 for reference)

[EnderWiggin]

I also have concluded that my read on Arctic was bad and they are clear. If that wasn't by other posts.

(For now )

[nebjiamn]

reminding myself gh and logic both thought vanta was a wolf (double checking this now) if logic flipped v

need to reread that sequence + some others

[Wisdom]

Yeah Arctic's likely towning here.
Ender lock v.
Rask and dya and Benneh are probably also v.
I still don't have anything conclusive on Hally, if she wanna town case them that'd be great!

[EnderWiggin]

I honestly don't have any reason to townread Vanta atm. I gut like their posts but at this point in the game that's... kinda not a great reason to townread lmao.

I do want to see what they come to in terms of solving today, esp given they're deep in that POE rn.

Also wanting to see Wisdom post because Arctic's game is actually a very fair counterpoint to my opinion and I need a better reason. (I think I'm still inclined towards Wisdom town for now but seriously reviewing this rn.

My primary pick for wolf isn't either of them but I'm gonna do a reread (Tomorrow after I sleep) before I say anything. Mostly because I don't want to post my idea at 2am without seriously checking myself, lest I wake up tomorrow and regret everything.

[EnderWiggin]

Friday night is certainly a thing ye.

Or...

I guess it's sat morning now.

[Raskolnikov]

Yeah, I made a post earlier today about it, but the tl;dr of it is I'm not suspicious of the [Rask/ladd/Murska] set yet despite not dying so far, largely because Visor's role flip effectively gave the wolves a strongman kill last night (that plus Jan flipped PR). So those three still being alive is still forgivable under those circumstances, but if we have a kill outside that tomorrow, then and only then can we revisit it.

benneh and dya are always just town from that EOD (and I don't think dya is ever paired with Visor).

Logic and myself are the next two to go down no matter what, order still tbd. Hopefully he's a hit lol, but hey, at least if he isn't I'm vindicated

I'm probably just leaning Logic into Gemma (with me as the inevitable sandwiched mislunch just to ensure the gentleman's sweep ) wins the game in most worlds. Still think Logic's posts point to town!him but the way Visor treated that slot is just suuuuuuper rough. Calls Logic's posts bad mid-late d1 without elaboration when Logic's taking heat, but when Syn and Logic are the two viable wagons EOD1, he calls for votes on Murska, again without elaboration, and then pivoted d2 to saying that Logic's posts were ok, there's just no consistency there really. Gemma just didn't post well when she was around, it's not her fault but she's also not taken the chance to turn it around when other people have by virtue of continuing to post, and the soft is nothing. Put up or shut up imo.

If one of those two is wrong then the game continues and it's time to expand the horizon. I promised looking into my "muddled middle" grouping of [Vanta/you/Ender] as well as the "not clear imo but probably fine" set of [Arctic/Hally] a few hours ago but it's still the weekend and I'm lazy, but yeah, that's where I'm at.

Logic flipping red I think clears Vanta. Gemma flipping red but Logic flipping green might mean Vanta's the fourth. Need to get a handle on you and Ender (Ender also did not have a great EOD, but he didn't quite go whole hog on the whole "trying to kill benneh" thing like, uh, Visor and I did, so further investigation is required).

Game is still probably easy, so I don't really have that sense of desperation like I did going into EOD2 that we were going down the wrong path despite my impending demise.

I strongly suggest you read EOD2 (says the guy who's putting off reading a few player slots lol) just to get a better grasp on things because it's pretty hard to contextualize anything that's been happening today without knowledge of exactly what happened and how it happened.

it's a penumbra sort of thing, a single post won't really point to it

benneh definitely is like lock town just from how hard Visor (and, uh, I) was pushing benneh for quite a while, the way it built up, peaked, and flickered out (and how benneh came in at the very end and how he reacted to it)

Arctic fought against it the entire time and seemed to be convincingly worried that things were about to go horribly wrong, it could have been faked but I don't think so

So I guess the major question is Logic's alignment right now. If he's a wolf, game is still reasonably easy. If he's town, then y'all are in for some fun times on d5 after both he and I have flipped green. On balance, I still think his posts are coming from town!Logic, but that's gotta be looked at in the context of Visor's treatment of him on both gamedays (with the obvious caveat that Visor was posting just to post at EOD2). It was pretty inconsistent and fitting of whatever narrative happened to be more convenient for him at the time, and I feel like this is more likely to indicate that Logic was a partner. So Logic *will* be in my POE, but luckily I don't think him flipping one way or another shifts any major paradigms aside from possibly Vanta, so I don't need to do major conditionals or anything.

After Visor flipped, Jan was my major tinfoil. If he was a wolf with Visor fighting for his life yesterday, that was the way to play it, to test the waters to see if the benneh CFD could actually be pushed through before committing (once ladd showed up Visor was always dying imo), but that's a moot point now.

We will be taking dya out of the POE (I still believe that there was exactly one in the dya/Visor pair just from treatment of Syn and Visor flipped red) as well as benneh (very villagery approach to EOD).

Remaining POE, unordered:

Ender
Wisdom
Rask
Murska
Logic
Arctic
ladd
Vanta
Hally
Gemma

Murska is still claimed PR. Him not dying N1 was somewhat more questionable than him not dying N2 imo, Visor's flip being what it was basically gave the wolves a free shot at whoever they wanted and I feel like they had to have a PR hit on Jan or something. So I'm still not concerned about Murska yet.

For the same reasons as above, I am still not concerned about Rask or ladd (among others lol). Now, if somebody like dya buys it tomorrow night, that's when we start to revisit the Rask/ladd/Murska set, but not before.

Remaining POE, unordered:

Ender
Wisdom
Logic
Arctic
Vanta
Hally
Gemma

Two in this seven. I don't think I can outright take anyone else out at this stage without doing more rereading (haven't since last EOD), so this is just about tiering and ordering it.

I think Gemma needs to either hardclaim or disavow the soft. There's wiggle room, because that soft may not actually be a soft. Yes, Visor did try to get her killed yesterday, but imo his main focus was benneh and Gemma was a pivot after benneh didn't quite crest high enough, so I'm not taking that into account unless and until I revisit those interactions. Until Gemma posts more, all the damning stuff said about her D1 and D2 still applies: her posts are very surface level, don't really display any cohesive progression, and are disjointed to the point of being actively wolfy in addition to just being Not Villagery.

I hated Arctic's posts on an emotional level last EOD but the next step up has them probably being good, and also I hated Arctic's posts in the moment when I had Visor as town and, uh, that flip changed things lol. He's probably fine but want to reread.

Wisdom is a blind spot. I think if I got one of my townreads wrong yesterday it was Wisdom, it was always kind of a lower quality than some of the other reads I was putting down. I think Wisdom and Vanta would be my immediate targets if Logic flipped green, pending reread. I just don't have a super good handle on Wisdom's overall gamestate view right now, and that's something that needs to be corrected.

I see a lot of posts about Ender being on the outer edge of the POE and straight up I have no thoughts there rn so I'll take a look at some point today.

Hally, being vouched for by benneh but is no longer on the same level as benneh for me pending reread. Need to recheck that.

Vanta, good tone, good vibes, must be super frustrating for wolves to deal with lol. Still conditional on Logic for me, kind of went after Logic in a way that gives off w/v equity on D1. I also think the way Visor treated Vanta was similar to the way he treated Logic, very inconsistent/depending on what the threadstate called for at the time being, which adds more fun to this.

(yes these last few paragraphs were purposely surface level because I don't have any hard conclusions yet, that's what the full dayphase is for)

So let's order it out and say:

Out of the POE for the time being, not ordered:
Rask
ladd
benneh
dya
Murska

---------------

Probably ok, do due diligence
Hally
Arctic

Blind spots, priority rechecks
Vanta (not w/w with Logic imo)
Ender
Wisdom

Shocker of shockers, my bottom two
Logic
Gemma

Most of GH's content on D3 iirc Benneh. in the wall he explains Logic/Vanta's pairing. (hinting at Visor's treatment of the slot too).

Back reading I also see that most of the posts are in reply to Wisdom who looks gueninely assessing GH's alignment (mostly mentionning for Arctic)

[Arctic]

What game did you link?

the game where we were w/w with swowl and michief (on an alt) and we got rekt lmao

[Arctic]

its impossible for me to town case vanta so i will just let you kill them and if it's wrong woe is me nice one guys if it's right then i'm parking on wisdom tomorrow if i'm alive unless somebody explains why it's anyone else. but no one seems to think it's them for a bunch of silly reasons imo
@Wisdom explain to me why you townread rask for pushing on syn, before syn even flipped, and you were reading syn as null
Is there some meta context I am lacking here, because without context it reads flat out as TMI and I've asked you to explain this three times now and you've ignored me every time

[Arctic]

GH wolf reading me right off the bat is probably towny? I mean, it’s generally towny to wolf read me, especially if that's not a known habit (which Visor's read is).

Syn town reading me is also nai, I wrongly tunneled him for it last time and before that I correctly town read him for it. Again, when it's a habit it’s easier to fake, I have no read there.

Rask going hard on Syn looks good, town point for Rask.

Ladd seeming a bit lost is honestly a good look for him, another town point there. Not really sure why I initially got pinged by him.

bump

[nebjiamn]

Final Vote Count

Syn (7) : Ender, Ladd, Jan, Raskolnikov, GH, Arctic, Murska
Logic (3) : Hally, Benneh, Vanta
Murska (2) : Visor, Gemma
Gemma (1) : Dyachei
GH (1) : Zack
Ender (1) : Syn
Vanta (1) : Logic
Visor (1) : Wisdom


Vote History
If you made a vote that wasn't counted, please link it to me on discord

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Post Counts

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Stand by for flip and flavour.

8 alive

mislunch to 7
nk to 6
mislunch to 5
nk to 4

sleep should be safe?

nk to 3

so we have 2 mislunches and maybe a sleep unless wolves have some hidden late game KP (seems unlikely but can't be too careful)

so we need to clear 5 people hmm

clear #1: Arctic - genuinely clear off day 1. could have pushed more on logic or anything but instead settled on syn while also pushing gemma
clear #2: rask - polarized (not really but really clear from syn/visor pushes imo)
clear #3: me (hehe)

gets a little tricky here but i probly put hally here next? there's some stuff early d2 idt she posts as w/w like pushing on visor/logic but then giving logic space and staying on visor

idk about a 5th yet but i'm leaning wisdom v (much to arctic's chagrin)

[Arctic]

ender is like

lowkey villagery

i wanted this to be stronger than it ended up being because i thought i felt something but the logic post and apparently rereading makes all my reads spiral into potatoe or maybe its page 7 things, idk the logic post isnt even that bad

i liked 125 on first pass, i guess he made similar posts to this in the other game where he was wolf (and sure there's an element of self awareness to it where if he's a wolf he wants to get ahead of the sus) but it made me laugh so i v read it

129 i mindmelded with at the time, i had stupid plans to pretend to w read jan at the start of the game then actually got pinged by some of his posts and ohno so ender being on that wavelength feels good maybe especially because incoherent, kind of irrelevant bc its jan but i liekd it anyway

i also generically like the way he ended uip v reading arctic and benneh the individual wreads arent wow amazing sure but the way he got there felt good imo

this is classic first townread TMI stuff on a villa and gemma was p clearly not townreading her partners
same with all of her other stuff about ender imo

[nebjiamn]

i think this will boil down to whether or not i/we put dya back into the poe if we miss on vanta/wisdom/ender (i doubt we go anyone outside these 3 today?)

happy to hear opinions on hally too (@arctic tbh i feel like i don't know your fleshed out hally read right now besides that you must think she's a villager cause you're pushing wisdom)

[Arctic]

and yes vanta if you are a protective role you should definitely just be ccing murska here

sup wisdom

i pinged you in wolfchat pls respond

vote: wisdom

idk this is never happening im just not feeling it on ender rn sorry ladd

what do people think about these

[Wisdom]

its impossible for me to town case vanta so i will just let you kill them and if it's wrong woe is me nice one guys if it's right then i'm parking on wisdom tomorrow if i'm alive unless somebody explains why it's anyone else. but no one seems to think it's them for a bunch of silly reasons imo
@Wisdom explain to me why you townread rask for pushing on syn, before syn even flipped, and you were reading syn as null
Is there some meta context I am lacking here, because without context it reads flat out as TMI and I've asked you to explain this three times now and you've ignored me every time

I've just missed it, sorry.

I though Rask going aggro was towny for him, I don't know how to translate mellanmjölk but Rask's been quite mellanmjölk the two latest times I've seen him wolf.

Reason I started tinfoiling him was because I remember him saying that he was mellanmjölking because he didn't have enough time on his hands in those specific games, and that I thought he would be able to go aggro on Syn with Syn's permission.

On another note, I had erased the game you mentioned from my mind, I won two fantastic wolf games right after it. I can't really recall why I bussed Swowl though, there had to be a reason? Hm. Doesn't really matter. Swowl is not Visor though.

[Wisdom]

Benneh why are you insisting on having Ender in your PoE, stop that >:

[Arctic]

and yes vanta if you are a protective role you should definitely just be ccing murska here

sup wisdom

i pinged you in wolfchat pls respond

vote: wisdom

idk this is never happening im just not feeling it on ender rn sorry ladd

i think this will boil down to whether or not i/we put dya back into the poe if we miss on vanta/wisdom/ender (i doubt we go anyone outside these 3 today?)

happy to hear opinions on hally too (@arctic tbh i feel like i don't know your fleshed out hally read right now besides that you must think she's a villager cause you're pushing wisdom)

i felt like she's been arguing to kill gemma the longest out of anyone after the claim

but like if it's not in wisdom/vanta/ender i'd probably kill her even though i don't really believe it

i don't have a fleshed out read here but as i said i have the entire day to go through stuff so i'm gonna make food and then backread to see what i find

why do you think it's dya? they were voting gemma at eod1 when gh was too and i was considering voting there so there was a chance she could have gone over and wolves wouldn't want to bus the rolecop over a goon, it would make more sense to just vote the cw to save syn or bus syn for cred if dya was a wolf

[nebjiamn]

i felt like she's been arguing to kill gemma the longest out of anyone after the claim

but like if it's not in wisdom/vanta/ender i'd probably kill her even though i don't really believe it

i don't have a fleshed out read here but as i said i have the entire day to go through stuff so i'm gonna make food and then backread to see what i find

why do you think it's dya? they were voting gemma at eod1 when gh was too and i was considering voting there so there was a chance she could have gone over and wolves wouldn't want to bus the rolecop over a goon, it would make more sense to just vote the cw to save syn or bus syn for cred if dya was a wolf

i don't think its dya, i'm more doing diligence

i feel like their progression from being frustrated at not being able to solve logic's alignment leading to their game yesterday feels like v!dya

i also think dya's frustration at hally all game is slightly villa indicative because they would more easily shrug that off and just not engage with it i feel like. usually when dya is wolf and gets frustrated at things that are unfair they keep it (most of it) to wolfchat/DMs. that feels real here

but i can't clear them for those things like i feel comfortable clearing you and rask, which is why i'km pondering their place in the poe