Tarot Mafia

[Sunbae]

Dya is 100% town. I kinda wanna stick to my Jan v read as well but I've pretty much reset overnight.

Why is Knights and Grr top town?

Grr is because I've had just so many people tell me Grr is a villager. Knights I made a long post on a bit ago

- I would be absolutely floored if Knights is a wolf. That end of day was pretty fantastic. Was churning out reads on their own interest (went and checked Vanta, went and checked Cobalt). He also just has his own worldview that he sticks to when disagreed with despite being under pressure. Not appeasing, more confident in a "i think what i think" way. Looks at top wagons near the very end (rask/syn), says hes gonna read them and comes back with a Rask defense and a Syn wolf read. Then votes Syn. Wolf Knights has every opportunity to land on a non-wolf in this spot. Sheep is being pushed. Rask is being pushed. He defends both of those wagons and votes Syn. And he does it with villagery posting along the way.

I know Bop mentioned them falling off day 2 but they also seemed to just be busy irl and I wont worry unless they fall off today too?


With Jan, I think he's claimed jailkeeper right?
@Jan is that right? Standard jailkeeper now inverted?

[Sunbae]

i see everyone set themselves on fire and we're yeeting a claimed vig for some reason

seems fine to me!

I also kinda feel this a wolf wanting to look tomorrow when rask flips villa? but its 3am so im gonna see how tomorrow me feels

[Wisdom]

Well, I actually am a Lover. But I'm not aligned with Rask.

Why did I lie about Rask? Chaos. He was dying, and shouldn't, but what was left. I also wanted to find out whether there would be a bandwagon effect on him. Also, Lovers have been some of my funniest roles.

I think stetter may have been arsoned. What was @Wisdom doing?

@Ender claimed to have targeted stetter N1 with an unspecified power, which needs elaboration.

@Montmorency I targeted Stett n1 so if she was arsoned it wasn't that night at least

[Sunbae]

I think we should vote wisdom.

It's kind of weird more people don't think dya-rask could be v-v. Because either side claiming as a wolf makes zero sense. Rask can be a 2 shot vog AND dya can be a one shot vig that only works if no one else targets. It isn't that crazy.

@raskolinkov

if you arent killed consider not shooting dya

and to those who think i might look bad for trying to not kill rask if he is indeed a wolf; i started up the syn and rask wagons at eod on day 1. if they are both wolves im a golden god and jan will be giving my tootsies a rub in postgame

gl godbless

. also for me later

[Wisdom]

So if there was two arson kills last night then it had to have been:

n1: Arctic got doused
n2: Stett got doused + Ignite

or

I was roleblocked n2, leading to:

n1: Arctic or Bop got doused
n2: Arctic or Bop or Stett got doused + Ignite

[Sunbae]

where i'm at roughly, tiers not ordered within (also an excuse to use [ glow] tags which are insanely cool)



~lock town (should be 0 wolves)
1. dyachei - vig claim aside just town off d1, but lock for the 'CC' on rask even tho he flipped neut and not wolf, functionally its near the same since the only real possibility was if rask flipped v then their roles were pretty incompatible
11. grr - my most confident read itg mech aside. i think lots of ppl have co-signed this dead/alive/town/wolf and i dont see the need to overthink this
13. insomnia - this high off day 1 mostly, dont think he'd bus syn when rask/sheep are viable wagons, especially when ladd/newc are pushing to resolve v!sheep and knights also has a good amount of v equity that could have been a 3rd counter. doesn't make sense meta wise and the rest of his posting is v good

v likely town (0-1w hopefully)
4. Vanta Black - prety villagery pop ins and feels distinctly different from her champs game. would like to see more out of them but i sorta think she may have been threadspewed v yesterday
9. Jan - vibes, playing towny, believable pr claim, shrug
21. Dolby (formerly C0balt). - idk i just read his posts and think town. if he were vagos i would say he makes good poasts

lean town but less sure? (0-1)
6. Sunbae - some meta stuff and general vibes, he hasn't pinged anything on my radar for how i read him but out of respect for his wolf game i am putting him in this tier cause as iaafr once said i'm "eternally pocketed" (I disagree and think that's a dumb ass read tbh but w/e)
10. gemma - idk going after stett as wolf just doesnt make sense to me but i could see myself being a sucker for this read. feels diff from last game they were a wolf too but low confidence
19. Montmorency - lots of posts around EOD1 and 2 that just make me wonder "why do this as a wolf?" -- they also make me wonder "why do it as a villager?" sometimes too but in general i think they've been good enough
20. Theknightsofneeee - had him in v likely town earlier but the lack of volume and impact yesterday made me drop him down just out of #thefear.

poe -> maybe woof (1-2 wolves)
8. ladd - pushing lots of villagers day 1 and 2 and didn't do anything with syn. he's soft pushed me a bit and a) he's like, almost never misread me and b) even if i dont hold him to the standard of A, there was like, 0 conviction with his push on me yesterday and was pretty limp and then changed his vote over to monty near eod while (i think?) defending rask. if mont is a wolf then its not that bad, but if he's v then he went from villa to villa day 2 after doing that day 1. he's also defended a few players i have wr'd at various points of the game, and i don't see how all those are true unless there's several misclears in my towncore. so either him or I are having a really rough game or he's a woof (or maybe we're both having ~OK games but we dont have the full picture to see that yet, idk!)
12. EnderWiggin - if i take his PR claim at FV then w/e but if i ignore that, i think he has a lot of pairing equity w/ ladd and wisdom. having said that, i do agree w/ ladd re: logic of claims coming out unlikely to have multiple wolves claiming after eachother and i get the feeling he'd coach against that so idt these 3 are like, hardly ever gonna be w/w/w.
14. Wisdom - claim seems out of place in relation to everything else tbh. some good posts day 1 but also some sus posts and day 2 was not great even disregarding the claim.

wolf
18. Maple - probly wolf KP tbh. claimed feedback at EOD. claimed self-resolution. self-resolving player dies, no feedback, fun

i know my bottom 4 poe is not w/w/w/w, or at least, its extremely unlikely, which means im misclearing at least 1 player in my lean towns so id like to focus discussion/challenges on my worldview around those 7 players today (with a preference for the ones in the lean town section but ill take what i can get)

I'd like to talk most in depth with you atm about Ladd, Insomnia, and Gemma

If you could read my longer post about the three from eod1 in the am and get back to me please? In as much detail as possible. Just because I am currently leaning Laddv/one or both of Insom/GemmaW does not mean I'm confident in it. Could be backwards! Could all be town! I think my Ladd points are pretty good though?

[Sunbae]

Also Benneh, elaborate on threadspewed v for Vanta please?

[Wisdom]

Grr is because I've had just so many people tell me Grr is a villager. Knights I made a long post on a bit ago



I know Bop mentioned them falling off day 2 but they also seemed to just be busy irl and I wont worry unless they fall off today too?


With Jan, I think he's claimed jailkeeper right?
@Jan is that right? Standard jailkeeper now inverted?

The short time I spent in thread before leaving yesterday I thought grr was a bit wolfy tbh

I'll see if I can find your post later

[Sunbae]

there was some interaction with wisdom/syn that I thought was clearing for wisdom but I completely don't remember what it is atm

other than that I think wisdom is = rand

@theknightsofneeee can you find this for me when you get the chance?

[Sunbae]

The short time I spent in thread before leaving yesterday I thought grr was a bit wolfy tbh

I'll see if I can find your post later

Could you elaborate on the grrr read?

[Sunbae]

Oh no im getting invested

[Sunbae]

Reread the post counterclaim: Don't think it told me much new.

[Sunbae]

if dya has weird stipulations and maple has weird stipulations and jan has weird stipulations maybe wisdom and rask are just evil idfk
@nebjiamn ifk why file did that im sorry ;-;

rest of posts are for if something crazy happens.

rask saying he shot me in that recent "softing" psot is a rather unconvincing typo

ill check progressions for myself tho

for me

[Sunbae]

Dya, Jan, Knights, Grr:

Can I get your thoughts on Benneh, Ladd, and Vanta please?

[Sunbae]

Ok I think Ive got a good idea where my heads at but ima just head out and see responses in the am

[Wisdom]

Could you elaborate on the grrr read?

It's mostly a vibe and I haven't checked it properly, but I think he wasn't doing much in with his time in thread at a point where it was very spicy

[Wisdom]

Oh no im getting invested

Vote: Sunbae

:wowee:

[Gemma]

Yo

Starting vacation from today so ill be extremely spotty

Idk what do with monti tunnel, its so incredibky silly and he in general he is out of the loop that i kinda think he is not a wolf but then we are probably doomed

I dont really tgink we are winning

Agree artic was villa kp, he softed last post. He didnt shoot bop nor didi tho so i kindaaaa think he may have killed himself? Like maybe he is desperado or some shit, should prob see if he softed anything

the shade of calling stett didi after they die xd

[Gemma]

I would also like people to reread Gemma and give thoughts. I was not a fan of the eod at all.

i reread them and their tone seems good but they're not doing anything just shitposting a bunch, seems not villagery imo esp for day 3, would yeet tbh

[Wisdom]

Grr is a mess to ISO but these posts and the ones following for the next two hours feels like Grr is very comfortable in thread and just laying back. Like there's not a lot of actual solving happening here.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

dya i had as gut town all game, not because they were super towny but everything they said i was like "yeah town-dya would say this".

except that one post where i definitely had an out of body experience and i'm irked people still havent told me if its like, a normal take for them or anything because I genuinely don't know.

I already said I understand you hate it, that part of it is not what I have an issue with. I am hard pressed to believe that you actually think it raises someones wolf equity. Tell me why. Why do I not find literally ANYTHING else to call wolfy that doesnt irk anyone? Like is that actually your read? that wolf is just being uncharitable to you because wolves are not nice and villagers are nice people or idk.

Do you think wolves just line up at your door and be mean to you so you can have them all nicely lined up? What?

Whatever do ur thing ig it doesnt really matter what I do or say others are gonna solve the game not me rofl.

I am not there by choice but because i cant do that much better tho. Idk In my mind everyone here is gonna have better reads than me when I fully try my best so that's just why I think that yaknow. like dolby is a goat, arctic is a goat, inso is a goat, ladd is a goat y'all goats man.

benneh kinda noob but we love him! <3

Vote: Grr let's see where this goes

[Sunbae]

i reread them and their tone seems good but they're not doing anything just shitposting a bunch, seems not villagery imo esp for day 3, would yeet tbh

we are kindred spirits cause thats how i feel about sunbae

[Gemma]

I initially thought two of Stett/Bop/Arson were w!Arson kills (would imply they could ignite and douse the same night) but I'm probably just here to screw things up due to flipless.

I'm useless now so might as well claim the rest. I targeted Stett n1 and Bop n2 so if those two got arsoned despite that some major fuckery is going on. Rask being SK and no arsonist existing makes sense.

oh boy

two people claiming to have visited two dead villagers

what a nightphase

next we'll find out ender visited stett last night

[Wisdom]

Grr is a mess to ISO but these posts and the ones following for the next two hours feels like Grr is very comfortable in thread and just laying back. Like there's not a lot of actual solving happening here.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Vote: Grr let's see where this goes

IGNORE THIS

I was looking at the wrong day (:

Unvote for now but might go back

[Wisdom]

oh boy

two people claiming to have visited two dead villagers

what a nightphase

next we'll find out ender visited stett last night

Fwiw I softed my n1 target d2 while Stett was still alive
Which in hinsight was kinda dumb because wolves could have caught up on it and targeted her today

[Wisdom]

IGNORE THIS

I was looking at the wrong day (:

Unvote for now but might go back

The point about him not doing much but using a lot of words stands though, but this was not in the context/thread state I thought it was

[Gemma]

Grr is a mess to ISO but these posts and the ones following for the next two hours feels like Grr is very comfortable in thread and just laying back. Like there's not a lot of actual solving happening here.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Vote: Grr let's see where this goes

[Wisdom]

I village read this post wisdom but I have never been accused of this as mafia i think. I genuinely think you guys do not know how I wolf. fence sitting is agenda=>keeping ur options open etc. that means i am playing towards my wincon as wolf and everyone who approaches me that way will never read me correctly lol. (i realise that is like, an impossible concept to grasp for people who dont know me cuz it sounds backwards, but im explaining anyway cause i always do that).

Ah, here we are.

@grr can you explain like I'm 5 what you mean here?

[insomnia]

i remembered that arctic flipped death and was like 'hmm that sounds an awful like it could be kp'

then i remembered this post (which felt like he was lynching someone who claimed vig when he was vig)

kept looking through his posts and found the other one.


arctic probably shot either bop/didi then, looking through his posts to try and find out, but I doubt it was didi

there's no way arctic shot any of these 2. im certainly not building my perception on the game based on this

i will take the post you quoted as just him fooling around trying to act non-PR

there is 0 reason for him not to shoot dya or if he would've shot a hard hitter, he'd have 90% shot ladd

the night is incredibly odd but i think the odds are simply really low that he is responsible for any of those kills

[ladd]

Ok, I think it was you asking why Knights suspects Gemma right after the spooky comment that made me link them. But I can see that's two different things. Will agree they were around a ton at eod. What are your current Gemma thoughts two days later?

So here's the deal: I do have a minor gut fear from day one on you. It was when you were talking about Maple and the words being a meme and having no idea why people were villa reading there. I read that post and my gut ping said "that's Ladd laughing about how easy his partner is getting villa reads for nothing" and then I brushed it off. I still need to reread day two so I'm not locked in but despite that I am currently thinking you have a good chance to be a villager based on eod1. Most notably with how many options other than Syn there were and the fact that you did not either ensure one went over nor get credit for Syn yourself. I do know you're willing to bus and use that credit to get some kills and this was certainty the type of game where nobody would question why you were alive for a while. I also know you are more than willing to power wolf and there were definitely opportunities there. The thing Rask told me repeats in my head: if you were a wolf they'd have been dead.

But I need you to understand that this is a really hard read to make in this situation and I need to be absolutely sure by end of today. Can you tear through this thing with me and help me be absolutely sure? We have so much info we can solve this shit but I need help (im washed! ill be trying today but ugh). Cause I have a feeling getting you right is the key to this game with pressure you've been under and the way the games played out.

Sure thing, but as i said i am on vacation now so will be mostly spotty phone posts from me (tho i prefer reading to posting at this stage of thr game)

@insomnia arctic explicitrly said death flavour is probably kp, i really really doubt they were not kp goven its a flipless game. Obv they also did not shoot bop nor stett so imo either desperado gone wrong, not active n2 or killed by reflective stuff from manti

[insomnia]

i refuse to believe he shot bop or stett

in that case, what kp was he? i think dya is legit here and the most likely case is that rask was a 3p sk of sorts who thought it was safe to claim his shot since he didn't consider a cross kill option

so we have 1-shot vig and whatever arctic was? i guess it's a really odd post to make if you're not KP, but i don't see kp from him n1 or n2