Tarot Mafia

[Dolby]

Looking back I just realized that Maple and Wisdom just kinda had the same POE? Wisdom had Gemma/Me/Monty/Vanta in a post earlier today before they decided after prompting that Maple was bad and voted them, and Maple had that same poe + Benneh (and presumably ladd). I kind of think that having that POE is wolf indicative anyway but I also think that, looking at this from Wisdom specific POV if Wisdom and Maple are w/w, why have any of your other teammates below Maple?

Dolby
Dya - though I think that there is a VERY slim world where mafia somehow found out that Rask is SK and they CCed to kill him and fakeclear

Knights
grr
Insomnia

Monty - yes he is up here and yes I think he still could be 3p
Jan - realisitcally I think with his current claimed role he is forced to use it in a pro town way even if wolf. Could be wolf roleblocker I guess (funny).
Benneh
Vanta
Gemma
Sunbae
Ender

Wisdom
Ladd
Maple

I think that within the big middle group Monty and Jan are probably town and as long as I resolve doubt on the people between Benneh and Ender we're fine?

I straight up think that Maple/Wisdom/Ladd are 3/3 and I'd expect more from Maple today on the sole basis that Maple is the presumptive yeet.

[Dolby]

@Wisdom
@EnderWiggin

what were your reasons to think the sheep kill was performed by town during early day 2?

[Dolby]

I think Ender EOD1 is sus still, and how he talks about Ladd throughout the game (though this bit may change if Ender comes in with something that I like process wise), but if maple, ladd, wisdom keep hitting that is something I worry about then on Day 6

I mean my defense is "Rask has been catching Syn for months on D1 and has them as a townread" and that just feels bad as a defense.

Also Knights said they'd look into Cobalt for me and has done ~nothing despite me reaching out and trying to take their Jan read at face value and assume them town for a moment. Which honestly feels kinda bad.

I acknowledge the "Laptop on fire" defense, but I feel like that came wayyyyy later after my initial dialogue. (I even just ISO'd Knights just now to make sure.)

Re: Sunbae

I kinda think they're wolfier than not myself. Though I'm not pursuing this rn because:
1. Too late
2. I want to give Sunbae a bit of time because when we HAVE been t/t (on the rare cases) it's been a vibe. And a lack of that D1 doesn't necessarily mean they're wolf.

But Sunbae coming in with "We gotta work together!!!" when sentiment finally shifted towards sussing them feels like damage control imo. When they haven't shown any of that sentiment before they got sussed.

Definitely something I want to revisit tomorrow and (hopefully) have time in thread with them instead of being the ships passing timezones.

I've mentioned not vibing with Ender's pushes on Sunbae and Benneh despite not fully townreading them and this is a good example because, while Sunbae has come in moments when he was in danger (speaking specifically about day one) and he did pass by in part by putting out positive vibes in a somewhat forced way, but I don't dislike it because Sunbae has been transparent about that the whole game. and I just don't feel any of what Sunbae has done before day three constitutes damage control? Like, at most I can say that any given post he makes has influence on one person, it's not crafted for that.

Ngl I have negative viewpoint on Manti. I should probably fix that at some point.

This just feels like a throwaway line about a teammate in future context of the one slot that I was specifically trying to engage with Ender on in the future . Yes this is pre-flipping Maple

At some point in day two I asked him his take on Maple and brought up that Syn had Maple unnaturally high up in his read list, and he responded saying he didn't really have a take on Maple and asked for posts from me (which I couldn't really provide since I had only just come to Maple via Syn at the time) and then just never engaged with me on it and stayed on Rask the whole day. i will grab those posts when I come across them

Vote: Rask

Why, what is this on my face? Egg? Mmm. Nice and salty.

(I read back overnight and I'm gonna say ~probably Knights is just town and I'm an idiot.)

Just catching up now. Long day. Plus got like no sleep last night so if I sound insane it's because I actually am.

I'm gonna try reading and vibing and see how long until I pass out.

Votes Rask at start of day and never moves after this. Maybe he would have moved if there wasn't the CC from Dya but I'm pretty sure he didn't post after the CC happened. He does correctly land on knights town, but he should have a take on Rask that isn't this considering that Rask was basically a separate flashwagon also happening at the same time, and logically I think that makes syn/rask less likely to be w/w than the base level "rask is dragging his teammate out of the water" take suggesets. He kinda acknowledged the rask wagon as not great d1 to

That is a wild left field.

Any specific posts you can point me at? I honestly don't have a good grasp on Maple as a whole.

like idk this is the maple thing I addressed earlier but like, I expect SOMETHING when he mentioned not liking the slot earlier and we vibe but I'm a scumread of his asking him "hey I think Maple is sus and is potentially linked with Syn". I'd expect some level of deeper investigation on d2, not just staying on Rask. Wisdom and Ender both only seemed to hop onto Maple because unlike day two it doesn't feel like day three can end in any way but a maple elim (though tbh I wouldn't be strictly opposed to going ladd or wisdom).

Oh I haven't said this but Monty's EOD was pretty towny of him IMO. Some of the D2 start also feels a lot like the game I ML'd him when we were both town, and I like to think I learn from mishammering =P

the one thing that I like from his d2, and i'll do it one better that this actually looks particularly good looking through a rask/syn w/w world, then what was Monty doing voting wolf!Rask then unvoting him when he can just bus either whoever is going over (not Rask, it's Syn) or whoever is the worse role for mafia and get away with it bc flipless

he has good reasoning later on that isn't this

I remember him mentioning the Syn wagon looked good and he didn't want to go Knights. (Who was a major alternate wagon.) That doesn't feel like someone who is partnered unless he was gonna bus, which he didn't.

Also his unvote when Rask was 4 and Syn JUST got put to 3, to make it 3/3/3 also doesn't feel partnered. Esp with him not revoting to push a different option.

tbh I can't clear him for it but yeah. i do kind of think that from earlier comments it's kinda weird for him to not vote in rask/syn so yeah

he has another monty post but im not gonna quote it, just say that it's good

I townread Grr rn but I'm just not with the mental energy to sort through your wall posts that I'm seeing in my catchup. I'm sorry.

weird take

In counterpoint to Arctic I kinda thought Ladd looked ~okay.

When I have played against him as wolf he's tended to find weak town players and push them relentlessly. (Point of fact, I was one of the players he pushed when wolf.)

Alongside the melds that Arctic is directly talking about, I also just don't feel that the "Wolf!Ladd finding town targets to push" exists here in so much as I'd expect.

Maybe I'm wrong. But maybe I'm right ya know?

yeah

ladd just feels very lackluster this game and my problem is like

he pushes peopel to extent d1 but d2 he plops on Maple and then explores elsewhere, from his behavior, I had no idea that he was sus of, or had voted maple until I went through and specifically looked for maple/ladd interactions. I think he is looking for townies to push. Maybe I'm wrong on benneh/sunbae, from enders pov those are good pushes, but I kind of think that ladd's benneh/sunbae/maple/monty 1. looks bad because maple and monty especially feel like low hanging fruit agnostic to their actual alignements 2. imo is 1/4, maybe it's 2/4 at best, tbh I could be wrong on benneh and/or sunbae but just like, idk I just don't like it

I think if this was any other player but ladd I'd be fine with this post (maybe I'd be opposed if it was about specifically wisdom to)

And that ends Ender's day two and I just realized that he just plops his vote on Rask but doesn't really do anything with it. Quotes Rask once doesn't try to steer anyone there. Day two was just a busy day for him, I've talked about how I've been worried about how I have a false positive from that, but I still have concerns.

Didn't you have a pretty good townread on me from D1?

I actually like this post a lot if Wisdom w. Wisdom had Ender above the bulk of their townies, and I'm pretty sure that that occurred while Ender was in the thread and before he claimed PR. This is something i expect town Ender to notice and remember

"I self resolve" can very easily be code for "I have KP I need to unload before you wagon me" tbh.

Which I should know more and I feel kinda dumb for not having thought of that yesterday when Manti was claiming self-resolving.

If ender was posting stuff like this yesterday I'd be comfortable townreading him (namely bc of the differing gamestates between yesterday and today) and probably have decided that wolfreading him over a series of posts in the 200s was stupid. Sadly he didn't and I have to contend with there is a good possibility that Ender's and especially Wisdom's maple takes are coming out the way they are now because it's evidentially clear that we aren't going to give Manti one more day like yesterday

...

Does Jailkeeper block non-killing actions?

If so (Respectfully) fuck you.

this is actually a super townie Ender post.

Sure.

But it feels sus for you to go from "I townread Ender pretty hard" to not really making a read on me D2 and then D3 being like "I don't remember their posts so they can go in the sorta sus pile."

ender hellbussing the team minus ladd (I actually really like this and I feel like this energy was missing d2)

In retro I wasn't liking that Ender wrote off Monty as a more likely 3p to easily, but I actually like that he wasn't using it as a way to push him reading through it again

On this note:

Can I talk to you about Benneh/Sunbae?

I think there's definitely a wolf in there from how D1 went with me.

Yes, yes, self-centred reads. But I have caught wolves with em before and you know that. (I want Maple over today but this is definitely a direction I want to explore for tomorrow/later.)

maybe there is

Sunbae: I've done a review of EOD1 and D2 and Monty/Ladd/Knights/Dya look towny

Me: *Stares at d2 reads where those were 4 of my main reads.*

Again the energy is just so different from d2

i do think that having insomnia on a wolf list is kinda whack tho

Monty is either town or 3p imo.

I stand by my read that his EOD1 isn't paired with Syn.

I said 3p because like... I just don't understand his play and that makes more sense.

Also to be clear:
I don't think he was actually paired with Rask.

yeah this is like, town ender thought, town energy

I really do need him to re-ev Ladd, ender d3 is good and I'm just worried d2 was a off phase for him. Heck the mid day one energy from him is popping as well but I am not bringing that here. I don't think I can call him strong town but this readthrough does justify at minimum being way above wisdom

Gonna reconfirm Vanta to myself then call it a night. probably explore in sunbae/gemma/benneh/jan if i still have the energy

[Dolby]

@Vanta Black what are your reads at right now?

I read Vanta Black's ISO, thought it was lightly towny, until I saw the Dya vote. i think it's kinda not what mafia would do to ask the thread which one should I vote when half the thread is there and then vote Dya over Rask

[Dolby]

If Ender is town and maple/wisdom/ladd is 3/4 of the team I think that the "who am I misclearing" question likely constrains itself to Sunbae at this exact moment in time.

with that said I am probably living in fantasy land if i think all three are hits

[grr]

ehhhh

im all for world building but this is too preflippy for my taste

FWIW you aren't wrong. it's just something that does make sense, the boring bottom line is that one comment pinged me as very partnered so i just checked if it clicks into space for me.

I'm still asleep or something so gone again.

[Dolby]

Starting on Jan bc I am hoping he is the easiest clear, but also because if I look at d1 eod I don't think that Jan or Maple HAVE to be wolves, but I think the odds raise A LOT from how the EOD went down. I think that Maple may have been trying to exploit Jan's wrong read on Rask and no one else in a position to try to do it

"Well met, kind soul."

I like this one.

grr..

first time playing with ih (?) and gives an instant townread, good sign

Tiers of citizens(not sorted within)
Tier 1
Didistetter
Newcomb
Wisdom

Tier 2
Syn
insomnia
Arctic

Tier 3
EnderWiggin
Ladd
grr

Slums
Raskolnikov
C0balt

people I should have a read on but I simply don't
dyachei
Sunbae

people I should not have a read on and I don't
Vanta Black
nebjiamn
Gemma
ColonelLubriderm
Maple
Montmorency
Theknightsofneeee
sheepsaysmeep

I don't have a good wolfread right now. But I feel good about ~half of the game!
That is close to a winning poe, maybe!

sees wisdom tier 1

uh

sees syn tier 2

uhhh

sees ender and ladd tier 3

uhhhh

sees two non wolves in slums

uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Ladd locked you in as a villager. Tells me that I should have some read on you or ladd is a wolf with tmi (or a villager showing reads at a wall).

I like this post

and that is why you are classified as a tier 3 citizen.

back to mines with you.

I think this is a towny attitude with regard to somebody wanting to be townread more than you think they deserve to be at that moment in time

the knights problem is that he is tunneling me for a reason that makes a lot of sense to him.

I have called him an easy villa read a lot in the past year.
I normally either find him early or assume he is a wolf.
Me not interacting with him so far should be a red flag to him.

and that red flag turned into a tunnel.

The problem is that I did not catch on early to him in one of our recent games and am changing my approach.
(not sure if it was anni or the game before. but I remember having a bad soft clear on knights d1 in a game within the last 2-3 months)



Newcombs reasoning is fine.

The first point is mute because I am certain that it is how knights starts every game I remember.
knights into is normally
"something about randing villa

line saying hello"
the added line in the middle in a new forum is not out of character.


The 2nd point about knights read on me is fine.
I have trouble judging it because I know knights (if villa) is in a silly tunnel that just got half his quotes eaten and might take some shortcuts because of it.
Doesn't really excuse lack of analysis.

This all to say I see a fence. I sit on it.

I love this, when I was reading thread upon subbing in I thought that Knights was an obvious villa and I was surprised to see no one agreeing with me in the thread. I unfortuantely can't speak much towards the reasoning lol, but I like it all the same

this is your post. had to look it up.

I don't disagree with your take.
enders takes are things I can simply nod along and fakeable as wolf.

both examples here are just expert fence sitting tbh.
I tend to have very similar thoughts early on a lot of times. it is why I didn't bother placing sheep or knights in my early list for example.

I can see your reason. And I am curious how ender evolves when he comes back.
I don't think it is damning in any way. to me it is just something that a wolf could easily fake, but a villager might post as well.

I think I like this post. He has Ender as towny but is acknowledging the fundemantal view of what Sunbae is seeing in this post (sidenote that I do not think that constitutes starting the ender wagon), but just explaining why it isn't that strong a shot

Rask can you order my reads from most to least consensus:

Neb town
Dya obvious villager
Maple town (though pondering more I admit now)
Knights light towny
Insomnia towny
Jan wolfy
Ender wolfy
Rask wolfy

I think that this list makes Sunbae next to read tbh (I guess I can see ender/jan as a world but I kind of think the claim alone makes Jan a pretty likely villa)

I am frozen right now.

I dislike most pushes but have no real place to go myself.

The fact that others are exploring new avenues right now makes me feel slightly better about it.
Not knowing where I want to go and staring at the player list with more questions than answers is just not helpful.

I like this post, especially in the context of his EOD especially. jan has Rask and C0balt (my slot) as his two susses, which really explains why he's so strong for rask when rask becomes an option. He could have put his weight behind another wagon earleir (before Rask formed) to help counter the syn push. He probably could have got on gemma specifically pretty easily even without a solid take there, but he didn't. He got on Rask once Rask, his strong sus, became viable, but he didn't have an agenda before that moment

I have seen knights as villager tunnel villagers to the ground while I sat on the sidelines (as villager) calling him washed. (the knee v boob drama of 2024)

Him tunneling me now fits the mold in a lot of ways. His new persona seems to be dude stuck in a tunnel.

My main problem with knights is that his second top wolf is gemma who is his counterwagon.
That choice feels like a cop-out and not like an actual wolfread.

tbh still fine with this

Vote: Sunbae

I can't help but look at this vote as genuine in the sea of scattered posts surronding it

I think there are two worlds and I doubtpeople will follow me.

We may be somewhat right and this is an easy game but my gut yells at me that we are not.

Or Sunbae is a wolf. (possibly with ladd, but maybe ladd is willing to tell the class about his sunbae read).

lol lmao

I had similar thoughts while going for a walk/shopping.

My heart is not into ender or knights wagons at all.
And gemma is shrug coinflip material right now.

None of it feels good.

I would hate to be wrong on sunbae, but it is where my head went several times in the last hour.

yeah this guy does not have an agenda. Could have pushed Gemma easily once Syn became viable given how he was reading Syn as a pretty strong towny early in day (heck gemma could still be a wolf but i feel that the gemma/jan worlds are slim and I'm looking other places anyway), but he's pushing in spaces that are actually genuine for him, and when he doesn't have that opportunity he's exploring.

Syn is in his town meta from what I can tell.
I am kind of too lazy to look the start differences between his game again.
But rask had the same read and I don't think it is wrong. (and I doubt rask would bother to fake that read if w/w because it outs both of them)

stett feels like the most obvious villager in the game. I do not know her wolf game well.

Wisdom - has me pocketed for now. I just know I have rose-coloured glasses on and thus my opinion has little value.

dislike the wisdom read tbh

I think that this would prompt some change in the positioning of rask but this is probably just w/e

I claimed a great read on wisdom for a long long time just by never having seen her be a wolf.
Do not underestimate my hubris.

I think a lot of my confidence comes from hosting the anon game and watching you play there.

this is really funny to read tbh

you judge syn on how snarky he is. you know that.

he was dennis the menace in cereal killer as villa and ghandi in saints and sinners as wolf.

I just left my fucking bed reread 3 of his games which I was too lazy to do until you idiots started forming a wagon this late in the day. (and apparently nobody else does the legwork)

And he is not as snarky as he was before but more than he was a wolf. which is frustrating.
I would kill rask before I kill syn because Rask has called syn lock villa somewhat early and I don't think rask as villa would be wrong.

In that weird world the team is syn/rask/wisdom + whoever. I am not confident on that, but it is possible?

While at a PC for a moment:



this take is actually bad. sunbae stopped posting because he was topposter and actually had some fine solving post in the last 24 hours.
both in absolute post as well as in % sunbae is way above ben in content. it is just not a good take.

I think this is fine in the context of his past posting. i guess I could say I would like it more if he didn't claim to have re-eved Syn's meta (would make his actions look better I think), but I think that it's ultimately just fine given he was actively sussing rask during day

he then basically afks for 40 minutes then tries to pull up a quote to defend syn and get rask killed which I just don't think is a wolf play tbh?

this was rasks last take on syn.

and then votes Gemma when it's clear that Syn is going over and tbh I don't really like it considering how much he's talked about being dissatisified with Gemma as a option AND that he re-eved Syn as being between his town and wolf metas, but I think his EOD is overall fine despite this. Would have liked it more if he stayed on Rask but at that point syn was gone

vote: gemma

Tbh I don't feel like reading his D2 maybe tomorrow. I tried to read and I kinda felt like giving up before half a page but I felt like his reads looked like someone's who's worldview genuinely just collapsed entirely so that's points for him

probably just a v yeah

[Dolby]

@Visor can we have vote count please?

[Wisdom]

@Wisdom
@EnderWiggin

what were your reasons to think the sheep kill was performed by town during early day 2?

Because I expected wolves to have an arsonist. And there was a lot of open sus on Sheep d1.

[ladd]

sap, here is where I am at. Only time I will be able to post from a pc today probably

v
ladd
insomnia
grr
jan
dya
gemma
dolby


I am pretty confident the above has 0 wolves, dont really care to go into detail on any of them rigth now cause I am short of time but dont touch them until lylo.

the rest
maple
wisdom
ender
vanta
monty
knights
benneh
sunbae



my FEELING without reading back is that vanta/monti are probably villagers but it's also hard to fully clear them with confidence

Of the 2 i think monti has the more tangible reasons to actually be cleared, it feels like he is in his own little word in a villagery way when he is around

I also think vanta is probably spewed v by wisdom w



Sunbae has been saying all the right things today, in the sense that i have agreed with 99% of the things he said. My only problem is that I just cant find any reason why it cannot be just a wolvf spinning his wheels? Like I read dolby solving and think he is an obvious villager, I sadly just dont get the same feeling from sunbae posts but if someone pointed a gun to my head I would say they are a villager



Knights's posting just isnt cutting it with me, sorry. I think his push on Jan should have been revaluated a while ago and I really dont find anything he has said this game villagery, the issues I had with him d1 are all still there. In the end if he is a wolf who decided to buss at eod1 his posting would look pretty much exactly like this



Gonna talk about benneh cause it ties into my knights read well enuf since knights/benneh is a thing I have been strongly considering in my mind from like early d1. I have been unfair to benneh this game and for that sorry, I know i have been lazy as fuck in actually reading you. I think their bottom 4 being 3 pr claims+1 me isnt a great sign and i think the way he is pushing maple today is a bit sueperficial but more importantly I just cant really find villa benneh after 3 days which is pretty unsual.



And then we have the 3 PR claims:

ender - i want him to claim for clarity cause he has been softing giving stett somethign and that seems to kinda counterclaim maple but he has been vague about it. Idk I just feel there is so much pr claims+he is in the POE where I dont see any reasong for him not to claim. Gth think villa but want claim. Not w/w with benneh


maple - i'll be real, the only thing I dislike with manti wrt the claim is that they said they were self confirmable yesterday which isnt exactly true even if someone got the card since apparentely manti does nto know what the cards do? I think arctic was an ok target given how many PR claims were around

wisdom - i am sad but i think they are just a wolf. Their firefighter claim mechanically just doesnt make sense to me, I have seen them claim early as a wolf before, their d2 was pretty bad and i thought their vanta push on d2 in particular felt super lazy from them. I just think from d2 on they have missed the SPARK. I also dont like they they have been leaning on their softs as a way to make their claim more villagery- the truth is that most villagers dont actually care to soft. If it helps bop also wanted them dead before dying

[Dolby]

Ladd what do you think of the following

Sunbae saying today that Knights is close to lock v for them for eod1 activity

Maple kinda just not doing much so far today? Perhaps this is uncharitable to say but beyond Maple making two posts which are functionally just lists of players he likes the most Maple has done imo is try to get one more day via Jan the jailkeeper. Thats something that’s been increasing my confidence the slot is a hit today

That generally more sus slots have voted Maple today than yesterday

If Maple and or Wisdom flips w how does that impact your read on Benneh?


Fwiw I agree with you on Vanta being spewed v by Wisdom w. I also think that that applies to Gemma as well (though to a lesser extent and I feel worse about Gemma than you do it seems)

If you had sole control of the elim who would it be? I assume wisdom? I want Maple to die today but wouldn’t be super mad if Wisdom went. Also if you could talk a bit about Gemma to I appreciate it bc I think Gemma v but don’t have that high

[ladd]

Ladd what do you think of the following

Sunbae saying today that Knights is close to lock v for them for eod1 activity

yea i have been considering sunbae/knights too (tho i remember knights was v hard on sunbae d1 but maybe not outside of distancing range); i think benneh/knights is a smoother fit but shrug.pg

i think its v easy to read knights by reading eod1 since he had a good buss, should he be a wolf. But with wagons essentially being w/v (rask counts as v) I am just left wondering wtf wolves were doing

Jan was giving them an out to save syn but no one defended syn, except jan himself (and super softly ender); so imo either wolves were not around or were bussing

I could be wrong on knights obviously, but to me right now it just feels like he bussed and there is no more much space to hide

Maple kinda just not doing much so far today? Perhaps this is uncharitable to say but beyond Maple making two posts which are functionally just lists of players he likes the most Maple has done imo is try to get one more day via Jan the jailkeeper. Thats something that’s been increasing my confidence the slot is a hit today

i dont really have manti as villagery, so I am not sure I have an answer to that

I think manti posting today is in either of their ranges

If Maple and or Wisdom flips w how does that impact your read on Benneh?

i had benneh/wisdom as slightly not w/w d1 but i dont think it's a read i'd be willing to uphold on d3

maple flip has no effect on benneh alignment afair

If you had sole control of the elim who would it be? I assume wisdom? I want Maple to die today but wouldn’t be super mad if Wisdom went. Also if you could talk a bit about Gemma to I appreciate it bc I think Gemma v but don’t have that high

I would kill wisdom


Gemma had the single most important vote at eod1 (made syn an actual possibility) and their posting today and since shows an underlying level of paranoia that is pretty rare for a wolf to fake. Like I dont think this is a post made by a wolf:

like on one level some of sunbae's takes are so far left field that i sort of struggle to see them being real and worry that i'm conditioned by having seen too many insane takes to think that villas really can just think anything no matter how ridiculous and backwards it is

i also havent put in the effort to really read through their reads and see if theres any kind of internal consistency or whatever

so im just kinda shrugging at them

and idk i sorta find it hard to believe that our poe is entirely correct (tbh i'll be relieved if even 1 of ladd/wisdom/maple are a hit) and i cant help but be paranoid about worlds where slots like benneh and sunbae are just sorta sitting back and playing for d6

[ladd]

@Jan do you get a chat with the person you jail ToS style?

[Jan]

@Jan do you get a chat with the person you jail ToS style?

Yes. They get to tell me their role and beg for their life at the same time!

[nebjiamn]

i agree on wisdom's w equity and the out of placeness of the claim in relation to everything else. idrg it but she did fake claim as a wolf in a recent 12/12er i hosted where she claimed some kinda cop (vanilla cop or somethin idr) on d2 as and survived / won the game off that silliness. if i draw a parallel from that game to this one the a) apparently unnecessary claim timing and b) the believability of the role existing in the roleset given everything else we know (she claimed that cop when other investigative had been elim'd d1 and i think the other PR had a pseudo invest like a desperado or smth) line up with my perception of the current game state and her place in it.

the 3p!devil would make sense thematically as an arsonist but there's ~0% shot rask tried to fake claim a vig shot that wasn't his own and the rest of the apparent KP in the game doesn't align with an arsonist existing unless they ignited last night AND arctic... shot someone he was village reading

my worry is that maple is wolf KP and wisdom is a meh role/Goon particularly because how the self-resolving/attention drawing occurred and if w we look at another 2/3 deaths tomorrow. but in that world i feel like wisdom would be lolcatting to throw the lunch here and they seem content? maybe that's telling lol

maybe we flip it around and kill wisdom here and have jan jail/kill maple? idk

[Gemma]

yeahhh i aint killing ladd

[insomnia]

interview taken, job taken

i remember wishing to see how it would be like to mash as a person with a full time job. be careful what you wish for guise, they do come true

don't feel like doing much today, i've already let out pretty much all my thoughts. maple / wisdom just have to get flipped before i care to do anything else. if a moment of inspiration hits, i might actually read the game or something. other than that i'll prob be shitposting

[insomnia]

im very comfortable rn cuz gemma / dolby / ender that group isn't giving me reasons to be worrisome. i villa read all of them

i really like how dolby keeps saying maybe ender is villa but he keeps going back to sticking him in wolfteams, it reads like a villa with a read he's not willing to let go as easily and just looks incredibly genuine. it'd be tough to pull off a progression like that this smoothly imo

[Gemma]

interview taken, job taken

i remember wishing to see how it would be like to mash as a person with a full time job. be careful what you wish for guise, they do come true

don't feel like doing much today, i've already let out pretty much all my thoughts. maple / wisdom just have to get flipped before i care to do anything else. if a moment of inspiration hits, i might actually read the game or something. other than that i'll prob be shitposting

congrats (i hope)

as a person with two jobs who also studies full time, i can tell you it's a fine fun time (anni was the first mash i ever did)

the key as ever is to potato

[ladd]

interview taken, job taken

i remember wishing to see how it would be like to mash as a person with a full time job. be careful what you wish for guise, they do come true

don't feel like doing much today, i've already let out pretty much all my thoughts. maple / wisdom just have to get flipped before i care to do anything else. if a moment of inspiration hits, i might actually read the game or something. other than that i'll prob be shitposting

Nice!

Congrats (or commiseration, depends pov)

[insomnia]

here is newcomb's posts that aren't straight up fluff

What led to this being a wolfread rather than a request for clarification or a you shrugging and moving on?

Like you're saying this guy is double pinging you essentially for having different takes on something. So why "this person might be mafia" vs. "I don't understand what this person saw here"?

Like what stones are you throwing exactly here - bad faith? Motivation? TMI?

Alright i'm headed to bed. No one has done anything i'd consider hugely alignment indicative either way; feels like one of those games where it's mostly just villa chitchatting for a while, like after a few pages you start getting the feeling maybe 0-1 wolves have even posted.

still waiting for the token bad entrance d1 wolf I can lazily kill and then get n1'd but honestly that'd be lame as fuck

wisdom's reads after these posts. not only does she not list him as villa here, she doesn't even mention anything w/r/t him. safe to assume she didn't find anything villagery about him because of this, no?

Town
Jan

Town Vibes
Sheep
Stett

Time to cuddle with a baby with coffee stained clothes :3

then, newcomb's posts since her posted villa reads

what on earth

it's a little ego-y but I think i'm gonna townread ladd for this; I think the threadstate thing I posted before going to bed is one of those things that only crystalizes with a certain amount of experience and especially its relevance only really sticks out if you're thinking about the game in a certain way. Not that that way is explicitly good or the right way to play or anything, i'm really contorting my arm to avoid patting myself on the back here. But basically like, thinking about the game in terms of overall mafia archtypes and what kind of game it feels like compared to the breadth of your mafia experience, that is something it makes sense for ladd to recognize and then vibe with.

And in running the mental cross check for pocketing and TMI I don't like... exclude it categorically but it definitely feels more in the goldilocks zone than not.

I also think if that's actually a pocket w!ladd attempt I'm not sure he could resist a subtle prop or jab at the accuracy of the "0-1 wolves" thing? That's maybe stretching the mental map of ladd a bit too far to be comfortable. Feels right though.

now this I don't like as much

the second line feels like something you just throw in to add the appearance of depth without there being any real consideration

As I'm typing this though I'm recognizing that there's perhaps a bit of "townreading someone who townreads you is such a goober thing to do off the bat" that i'm reflexively doing the opposite to prove to myself i'm not a chump

gonna let this one marinate

i'm cool with it

Who is Sett?

you can just make something up and i'll never know until I get hella confused on D3

I fucking hate that I like this

her next post, first time mentioning newcomb

Newcomb/Ladd is unlikely w/w and I feel like I agree with everything they say even when I don't. So, hopefully both are town and shouldn't be too hard to find them if they're alive wolves in later game.

first of all, this is a really lolwtf read, but like i said, she has these ~all of the time as a villa, which is why i approached her slot the way i did (by not trying to read into anything that seems obviously set up to be a false positive), but wut in duh hell

not only does newcomb not renew any of her previous reads, he actually goes against her sheep villa read. not really by way of pushing, but just by prodding him

idk, maybe im too focused on this and she really picked up on something villagery, but it was only until the latter half of the phase where i personally thought newcomb was fine. i think a lot of others mentioned newcomb being neutral, some people said wolfy, but other than her and cobalt, nobody expressed a villa read of newcomb so early. and i guess ladd too, but ladd is the exception hehe. her villa read just seems blase and not really interested in reading him, from the get go she didn't have anything to object or a curiosity regarding him, she doesn't have to, but this treatment is a bit odd to me considering only a few people pointed newcomb out as a villa, but the difference is in their reads they felt like a "based on one post" sorta gut take, not holistically like wisdom is implying

dunno if that makes sense for anyone but im using this as an opportunity to perhaps try to make other cases and read more

[insomnia]

if i struggle really hard, i can see her point. but what i don't get is why then ignore their reads or not follow them. that's the part i don't get. or try to work the disagreements with them if i feel they might be right? but again, the problem is that newcomb specifically wasn't really pushing anything that wisdom expressed disagreement with, he only started gearing up in the 2/3 of the day and he still had just a cobalt light shade that he even said he'd "let it marinate" and a villa read that wisdom already had. so what are the things newcomb did that you disagree'd with but could see him being right?

it's still a twtbawtbawtbaw etc etc read and this is p much how i perceive wisdom's playstyle so i really dont know how to even parse it. just upset if she's a villa that i can't villa read her lol

[Wisdom]

here is newcomb's posts that aren't straight up fluff





wisdom's reads after these posts. not only does she not list him as villa here, she doesn't even mention anything w/r/t him. safe to assume she didn't find anything villagery about him because of this, no?



then, newcomb's posts since her posted villa reads











her next post, first time mentioning newcomb



first of all, this is a really lolwtf read, but like i said, she has these ~all of the time as a villa, which is why i approached her slot the way i did (by not trying to read into anything that seems obviously set up to be a false positive), but wut in duh hell

not only does newcomb not renew any of her previous reads, he actually goes against her sheep villa read. not really by way of pushing, but just by prodding him

idk, maybe im too focused on this and she really picked up on something villagery, but it was only until the latter half of the phase where i personally thought newcomb was fine. i think a lot of others mentioned newcomb being neutral, some people said wolfy, but other than her and cobalt, nobody expressed a villa read of newcomb so early. and i guess ladd too, but ladd is the exception hehe. her villa read just seems blase and not really interested in reading him, from the get go she didn't have anything to object or a curiosity regarding him, she doesn't have to, but this treatment is a bit odd to me considering only a few people pointed newcomb out as a villa, but the difference is in their reads they felt like a "based on one post" sorta gut take, not holistically like wisdom is implying

dunno if that makes sense for anyone but im using this as an opportunity to perhaps try to make other cases and read more

I think you're going at this at the wrong angle. My approach to Newcomb was "I'm pretty much never going to solve Newcomb unless he buries a wolf d1". But even though he's hard to read, he has charisma that makes it hard to not town read him. I really vibed when he called out wall posters, and the Newcomb/Ladd post in question was made after the ladd and C0balt posts. At that point I pretty much gave up on trying to solve them further and just shrugged both town and thought that if we're both alive later that's future Wisdom's angle.

Then Newcomb got n1'd and Ladd smells like fur so I don't think the approach was too bad tbh

[Wisdom]

if i struggle really hard, i can see her point. but what i don't get is why then ignore their reads or not follow them. that's the part i don't get. or try to work the disagreements with them if i feel they might be right? but again, the problem is that newcomb specifically wasn't really pushing anything that wisdom expressed disagreement with, he only started gearing up in the 2/3 of the day and he still had just a cobalt light shade that he even said he'd "let it marinate" and a villa read that wisdom already had. so what are the things newcomb did that you disagree'd with but could see him being right?

it's still a twtbawtbawtbaw etc etc read and this is p much how i perceive wisdom's playstyle so i really dont know how to even parse it. just upset if she's a villa that i can't villa read her lol

I think the "he makes me nod my head agreeingly despite not agreeing" came from his vibes on Sheep and C0balt

[grr]

just bringing up some basic info again:

vote history d1/d2

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

d1:

Voter	Voted for	Post
Gemma	Raskol	#7
theknightsofneeee	dyachei	#16
sheepsaysmeep	theknightsofneeee	#63
didistetter	C0balt	#65
didistetter	sheepsaysmeep	#68
didistetter	C0balt	#80
Wisdom	Raskolnikov	#95
sheepsaysmeep	Wisdom	#142
grr	Newcomb	#197
Enderwiggin	Jan	#211
Enderwiggin	theknightsofneeee	#228
didistetter	nebjiamn	#248
Syn	sheepsaysmeep	#386
Raskolnikov	theknightsofneeee	#435
theknightsofneeee	Jan	#486
insomnia	dyachei	#620
Gemma	Vanta	#636
Newcomb	theknightsofneeee	#659
nebjiamn	enderwiggin	#668
didistetter	C0balt	#673
ladd	sheepsaysmeep	#686
ladd	gemma	#710
sheepsaysmeep	Gemma	#715
Wisdom	Gemma	#716
Vanta_Black	ColonelLubriderm	#725
Gemma	insomnia	#767
dyachei	enderwiggin	#792
Gemma	theknightsofneeee	#822
ColonelLubriderm	Wisdom	#824
didistetter	ladd	#828
Maple	Gemma	#858
Jan	Sunbae	#868
grr	Sunbae	#870
grr	Raskolnikov	#906
insomnia	Gemma	#1005
didistetter	Syn	#1047
Newcomb	Syn	#1053
ColonelLubriderm	Syn	#1066
dyachei	Syn	#1079
didistetter	theknightsofneeee	#1110
ColonelLubriderm	Raskolnikov	#1112
Jan	Raskolnikov	#1115
MontMorency	Raskolnikov	#1170
Gemma	Syn	#1173
dyachei	sheepsaysmeep	#1174
ladd	sheepsaysmeep	#1177
insomnia	Syn	#1186
theknightsofneeee	Syn	#1193
didistetter	Syn	#1195
Maple	Raskolnikov	#1196
Arctic	Syn	#1204
Jan	Gemma	#1206
Maple	Syn	#1207

d2:

Voter	Voted for	Post
didistetter	Maple	#1246
nebjiamn	Enderwiggin	#1272
theknightsofneeee	Jan	#1278
Wisdom	Vanta_Black	#1364
ladd	Maple	#1378
insomnia	nebjiamn	#1467
Gemma	nebjiamn	#1471
Wisdom	nebjiamn	#1473
EnderWiggin	Raskolnikov	#1488
Dolby	Maple	#1506
grr	Sunbae	#1514
didistetter	Dolby	#1522
ColonelLubriderm	Dolby	#1559
Wisdom	Gemma	#1581
didistetter	Wisdom	#1586
Raskolnikov	theknightsofneeee	#1645
grr	Unvote	#1653
didistetter	Maple	#1697
didistetter	EnderWiggin	#1742
Dolby	EnderWiggin	#1746
Gemma	Maple	#1817
Raskolnikov	Maple	#1857
nebjiamn	Raskolnikov	#1873
Maple	Dolby	#1892
didistetter	Unvote	#1900
ladd	nebjiamn	#1920
dyachei	ladd	#1929
ladd	Montmorency	#1932
insomnia	ladd	#1945
insomnia	Maple	#1964
nebjiamn	Maple	#1981
Dolby	Wisdom	#1991
Montmorency	ladd	#2003
dyachei	Raskolnikov	#2028
Dolby	Raskolnikov	#2032
didistetter	Raskolnikov	#2059
Vanta_Black	dyachei	#2063
Raskolnikov	dyachei	#2075
Wisdom	Raskolnikov	#2095
didistetter	Unvote	#2098
ColonelLubriderm	Wisdom	#2109
didistetter	Sleep	#2115
grr	Raskolnikov	#2121
nebjiamn	Raskolnikov	#2127
didistetter	Raskolnikov	#2133
ColonelLubriderm	Raskolnikov	#2141
ColonelLubriderm	Wisdom	#2143
Dolby	Wisdom	#2144
MontMorency	Wisdom	#2147
theknightsofneeee	ladd	#2164
MontMorency	ladd	#2176
Arctic	Raskolnikov	#2215

d1 wagons:

k so: wagons that felt interesting to me

Wagons as of #1170

Raskolnikov (4) Grr, ColonelLubriderm, Jan, Montmorency
Theknightsofneeee (4) EnderWiggen, Raskolnikov, Gemma, Didistetter
Gemma (4) Sheepsaysmeep, Ladd, Wisdom, Insomnia
Syn (2) Newcomb, Dyachei
Sheepsaysmeep (1) Syn
Jan (1) Theknightsofneeee
EnderWiggen (1) nebjiamn
ColonelLubriderm (1) Vanta Black
No vote: (4) Sunbae, C0balt/Dolby, Arctic, Maple




Wagons as of
#1197

Syn (5) Newcomb, Gemma, Insomnia, Theknightsofneeee, Didistetter
Raskolnikov (4) Grr, ColonelLubriderm, Jan, Maple
Sheepsaysmeep (3) Syn, Dyachei, Ladd
Theknightsofneeee (2) EnderWiggen, Raskolnikov
Gemma (2) Sheepsaysmeep, Wisdom
EnderWiggen (1) nebjiamn
ColonelLubriderm (1) Vanta Black
No vote: (4) Sunbae, C0balt/Dolby, Arctic, Montmorency

not rlly sure if maf were likely to be trying to save syn, but mont's unvote and maple's vote on rask both feel a little weird. i dont like the sheep cw, but i doubt maf would stack there to save an afk

i tr grr and bop, so if any wolves on that second rask wagon it'd be jan or maple.

it kinda feels like after gemma and insom swapped to syn there wasnt any other real attempt to shift wagons, but there's a chance wolves might have been inactive at eod so didnt have manpower to save them?

maple's last sec vote felt giga credgrabby lol but. maybe twtbaw, idk

d1 EOD

Players Votes

Syn 7 (Newcomb, Gemma, insomnia, Theknightsofneeee, Didistetter, Arctic, Maple)
Raskolnikov 2 (grr, ColonelLubriderm)
sheepsaysmeep 3 (Syn, dyachei, Ladd)
Theknightsofneeee 2 (EnderWiggin, Raskolnikov)
Gemma 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Wisdom, Jan)
EnderWiggin 1 (nebjiamn)
ColonelLubriderm 1 (Vanta Black)

---

d2 last votecount before dyachei CCs Raskolnikov (#1997)

Players Votes

Maple 4 (Gemma, Raskolnikov, insomnia, nebjiamn)
Ladd 2 (dyachei, Montmorency)
Raskolnikov 1 (EnderWiggin)
EnderWiggin 1 (ColonelLubriderm)
Gemma 1 (Wisdom)
Wisdom 1 (Dolby)
Dolby 1 (Maple)
Jan 1 (Theknightsofneeee)
Montmorency 1 (Ladd)

note: I used the VC in #1997 by Visor as a base but before dyachei actually CCs montmorency adds (#2003) a vote on ladd that I added here.



d2 EOD

Players Votes

Raskolnikov 7 (EnderWiggin, dyachei, Wisdom, grr, nebjiamn, Didistetter, Arctic)
Wisdom 2 (ColonelLubriderm, Dolby)
Ladd 2 (Theknightsofneeee, Montmorency)
dyachei 2 (Vanta Black, Raskolnikov)
Maple 2 (Gemma, insomnia)
Montmorency 1 (Ladd)
Dolby 1 (Maple)





10 mins or so for corrections

[grr]

I think you're going at this at the wrong angle. My approach to Newcomb was "I'm pretty much never going to solve Newcomb unless he buries a wolf d1". But even though he's hard to read, he has charisma that makes it hard to not town read him. I really vibed when he called out wall posters, and the Newcomb/Ladd post in question was made after the ladd and C0balt posts. At that point I pretty much gave up on trying to solve them further and just shrugged both town and thought that if we're both alive later that's future Wisdom's angle.

Then Newcomb got n1'd and Ladd smells like fur so I don't think the approach was too bad tbh

Why?

[grr]

btw i am very close to turning into baudib1 becuz this game is lacking a severe dose of baudib1 (or maybe macdougall but i cant do macdougall)

[Gemma]

wut in duh hell

xdd?

[Wisdom]

Why?

Vibes, I think it was Insomnia that said something about Ladd not having strong reads and his pushes has been on town, that I vibed with.

Also, his 180 on me is opportunistic. And while his reads looks good on a glance, he still has gemma as town and maybe the team is just Gemma/Ladd/Maple and Gemma buses them both to go deep since they're both is the consensus PoE.

[grr]

ok lemme collect this rq.

ladds posts on Wisdom (no comments yet)

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Villagery post


I dont really get the hate on wisdom tbh, they seem to be posting like normal wisdom afaict

Sunbae post wrt knights/newcomb is 1) villagery and 2) i doubt he shades newcomb after newcomb basically gave him green light to pocket them. Alas sunbae is probabky a villager


Jan seems like his obvious villager self

knights did have a kind of awkward intro; whoever pointed that out, think it was rask or ender maybe, I vibe with it. didn't stick out like a sore thumb but on readback, the shoe fits for the token awkward thread entrance d1 wolf. Not a glass slipper, but at least a pair of crocs.

Talk to me about benneh; apologies if I missed it, i'm catching up and also f5'ing the thread as I do

yea knights honestly had a TON of stuff that pinged me, i just thought sheep push on them was worse in the moment so i didnt pay it too much attnetion

benneh read on wisdom just read like the wolfy kind of salady and wisdom is an easy villager to wolf read (and imo he has not been wolfy at all). I think a big part of it ws just a flashback to his wolf game here tho lol

idk maybe later i'll dig up the posts it reminds me of

Id say thats something wisdom could care about as a villager ya

They make weird reads fairly often as a villager and i didnt really think that post from them was wolfy

Idr have them as lock clear or anything bit thry have seemed mostly the same as all the times they have been villa here

@Knights

Yea, mostly small stuff but its a bunch of things. For transparency here is the list!

- not giving a read on sheep push on you

- villareading benneh for 4 posts about cats (with the same strength as bop who was objectively more villagery imho)

- syn read felt a bit weird cause i dont feel bop alignment should have mattered much?

- saying newcomb had made some game related post bit not reading them and instead going to sleep. This 1 is a bit silly but as a villager idt i could have helped myself from reading them lol

Yeah sorry about that I kinda went into that post wolf reading Rask then read his ISO and then started kinda town leaning him and editing stuff mid post on phone was hell.

Before this game he told me he really didn't want to rand wolf, and from that I expected him to avoid thread, which I initially thought he was doing. But then I read his ISO and his vibes was more like "I'm busy F you". My meta on him is that as wolf rask in general tends to force reads through d1, especially when he doesn't have proper time, and he's not this game, hence I concluded that he's probably just town here.

Not a lock, but a vibe.

I wouldn't say he's low energy, just low posting that I initially misread as low energy.

Does that make more sense?

this post was probably written by a villager



this post was probably written by a villager

This seems villagery, not wolfy to me

I think wisdom def has a ton of spicy names in their poe

Fwiw meta wise they tend to open with off the wall reads based on very little ime

I dont follow how thats an easy poe to make?

yea this is basically how i feel about them

thx for the other reads too :y:


artic probably cleared themselves in my eyes with their post last couple of pages tbh

lettuce see where i am at if i kinda yolo it just for fun


just villagers
ladd
newcomb
didistetter
artic
grrr

confident villagers, ordered
bop
jan

rask

this is where reads i strongly care about end

wisdom - if i am wrong somehwere here i'd guess its them
dya - maybeee some worlds where they a wolf but based on toan/meta i'd say they are fairly likely to be villa

leaning villa but losing a bit of confidence/some worlds where they are a wolf with manti if manti w
insomnia
sunbae


the rest, ordered in 2 tiers. no order within tiers

ender - feels villagery but surface level
sheep - bit unsure but i think i am cool with havig them here for now

benneh - feel like i did him a bit dirty cause havent made much of an effort on my part to re read his iso and find him but thats mostly cause i wanst gonna lunch him today anyway
knights - confusing play
gemma - have trouble believing his posts show genuine solving
maple - no read but interesting web of connections. prob a strong wolf pr if wolf
cobalt - see ya tomorrow; maybe



not evne gonna list monte/vanta

has knights tried to be villagery tho? Some spooky gemma votes ngl


@manti i'd be curious of a benneh iso



i think bop is a villager cause of what he did not say but clearly was thinking vs what he actually said. Like i think in his mind he was linking me and wisdom even if he never said so explicitely but i could FEEL that he was clearing thinking about game/associations/worlds, whateve ryou wanna call it in a critical way

no one asked but i saw grr post their bop villa read so i figured i may chime in cause i feel pretty good about it now

I've got reasons to believe Sheep was killed by town btw

He called Syn lock town based on him agreeing with Syn on Bop. In his second post.

Part of why that makes Rask town is that Rask and Syn knows each other well and Rask was (previous to this at least) proud of how well he could read Syn. In our last Org game together, Rask caught w!Syn quite fast if not instantly. It makes sense for him to be cocky and jump the gun.

But even aside from their relationship and history, I've never seen a wolf call his mate lock town on post 2 based on ~nothing.

i have seen it


how would you expect syn/rask w/w to play out?

Vote: Vanta Black

Everyone else has done something towny at this point.

I still think Gemma could be a wolf but I'll give her some benefit of the doubt for the timing when she voted Syn (knowing that Syn only had 1 or 2 votes and would become more of a contesting wagon).

I think Syn was really busable at that point tho.

didnt you villa read vanta yesterday?

you are allowed to change your mind obviously, but i feel they have done something villagery for you



thoughts on eod if u read it? general poe still the same or?

SoD of d1 to be clear


and to not waste a post - rask still seems villagery to me (tho i disagree with wisdom that rask/syn stuff is strictly v/w)

sorry

if syn flips there (which had decent odds) then jan is spewed wolf. and jan flipping wolf would in turn spew rask villa is what i meant

I honestly dont really get why u feel so strongly about it

If all i read was eod, jan would look bad iyam

He defended syn and is clearly not spewed wolf so id say it worked


I just read eod again and what i find strange is how much jan suddenly cares once syn becomes a wagon, like he was pretty chill until the syn wagon and then he goes "ham"



@Wisdom why dolby so low? Why gemma?

if wisdom's a wolf ladd is probly also one

Yea i def look bad if wisdom is a wolf eheh


I think their d2 is worse than their d1 (their bottom 3 being dolby/vanta/monty(?)) seems uh not great. I still like their d1 but idk how much it carries over

Bop, i did go back to look at the post you said to me wrt sheep but i just tend to not really care about pr reads

I also think that this post is super agendad if Rask is v looking back at it

I’m Cobalt and town

I feel that Ender is wolfing rn and I think the reasoning for the townread here is really weak

But more importantly I think this may be being used as a cheap way to say “hey im sussing Syn, but blame Rask if this is wrong”. Their reasons for townreading Rask are also pretty nebulous “Rask is less hype than I expect” should not be a reason to townread him when he doesn’t want to wolf here(I also don’t think that Rask seemed solve at this point in the thread). Its using Rask to just avoid Syn

I suppose it’s a good look that Wisdom entered d2 calling Rask wrong town. At the same time the reasoning just seems off to me. Rask outside calling Syn lock town super early didn’t do much with him besides when he was specifically addressed on the read. And Syn ended up placing Rask at the bottom of his reads list

Ill play devils advocate - wisdom could have just said syn is a villager cause of rask read without asking rask to kinda revaluate the read like they did here

Idk i am kinda scared to defend people i am not like at least 95% sure are villas because i dont have a clear wolrdview right now beyond "these guis are villagers, the wolves are in the rest"

But i kinda like ender posting, i feel he is being more direct in his pushes tham his wolf game where it felt like he was giving himself outs; he had an interrsting worldview d1; he had some funny eod posts and has felt in flow; reaction to dolby push seemed villagery. On the negative side his eod is not great but i am not sure its really wolfy?


I am almost inclined to say wisdom is a more likely wolf to me than ender

Guess we'll see what ender has to say, but thats my 2 cents atm

Sorry about the tone in the last post.

Stett you're right that I haven't focused you that much but I still think there's a huge difference from that game.

I'm going away for a family gathering for the rest of the day and might not be able to be here except for popins, and since I'm a focus slot right now I'm just going to claim.

I am Strength, a 2-shot firefighter.

That means there are likely an arsonist, wolf or 3p, hence why I think Sheep wasn't killed by wolf kp.

I have played games with firefighters without arsonists tho so who knows :wowee:

.

I've got reasons to believe Sheep was killed by town btw

that was the soft, if people care

man it's so hard to lunch ladd, lol

even though objectively i feel like im correct to make that call, there's something that just doesn't allow me to vote him

40

thats cause deep down you know i am a villager



this is post 37

They are clearly related cause wisdom referenced having mechanical reasons for the sheep thing so if they are a wolf it means they came into the day setting up a claim (which is possible)

I have no other thoughts on the claim since we know nothing about the setup other than there is a vig and some neighbour stuff

V
Ladd
Insomnia
Bop
Artic
Grr
Dya
Gemma
Stett

The rest tier 1
Jan -not wolf with rask
Rask -not wolf with jan
Wisdom -claimed fightfighter...will hopefully clear up a bit later itg
Ender - not with dolby
Dolby-not with ender
Vanta-posts look good but just v low volume
Knights-looks good from eod but i just cant bring myself to have him higher onky based in posting, sorry


The rest tier 2
Benneh
Sunbae
Maple
Monty


I am kinda between 2 worlds right now:

1) i am off on more than 1 of my ender/wisdom/jan/rask v reads, sunbae/benneh are villas, maybe maple is too, maybe not. We are probably ok

2) sunbae/maple are w/w, benneh may be a wolf (or not, i honestly dont have a great read on his posts so far), knights i really doubt is a wolf with sunbae so would be a villa here, jan/rask woild be v as well so options are like super limited


I just think maple is the least villagey person, i didnt really like their iso nor pushes and the reversed stuff seems straight out of manti wolf playbook.havent played with manti in like years tho




With that being said, i will never votr anyone in my v tier but am open to voting anyone below at eod depending on how the rest of the day evolves

Gonna save the rest of my posts for eod cause i dont wanna be limited

Should be 40

There is something about firefighter claims that spooks me lmao

Like they always seem fake to me even when they are real

@artic i dont get what u are saying about me/jan? I villa read him d1, thought his eod was bad and pushed him d2 (i def voiced concerns) and then re settled to him being okaysh


Anyway there is max 1 wolf in rask/jan/wisdom

@ladd do you think villy would ever get both arso and vig?

espec with no proof of maf extra kp *yet* that feels kinda op

prolly no, in fact i am considering that wisdom could be a wolf




i kinda wanna lunch benneh ngl

Wisdom/jan arent w/w cause there is no way the wolves plan was for them to both claim pr b2b IYAM

wisdom/ender i guess it s possible tho i still villaread ender

Btw benneh, my main push d2 was maple. I was voting them all day until they claimed confirmable role, i thinknits really easy to disalign them and me (even from d1 posts)


For the rest i dont agree with clearing wisdom from rask flip cause i dont think visor would put a firefighter just to ckunter a poor neutral. Like u are really putting a neutral arso itg which is super hard to play and also giving thr village a counter? Iyam no


I think rask was prolly like an sk who was telling the truth abiut their shots but got unlucky

vote:wisdom

I will be back tomorrow

sap, here is where I am at. Only time I will be able to post from a pc today probably

v
ladd
insomnia
grr
jan
dya
gemma
dolby


I am pretty confident the above has 0 wolves, dont really care to go into detail on any of them rigth now cause I am short of time but dont touch them until lylo.

the rest
maple
wisdom
ender
vanta
monty
knights
benneh
sunbae



my FEELING without reading back is that vanta/monti are probably villagers but it's also hard to fully clear them with confidence

Of the 2 i think monti has the more tangible reasons to actually be cleared, it feels like he is in his own little word in a villagery way when he is around

I also think vanta is probably spewed v by wisdom w



Sunbae has been saying all the right things today, in the sense that i have agreed with 99% of the things he said. My only problem is that I just cant find any reason why it cannot be just a wolvf spinning his wheels? Like I read dolby solving and think he is an obvious villager, I sadly just dont get the same feeling from sunbae posts but if someone pointed a gun to my head I would say they are a villager



Knights's posting just isnt cutting it with me, sorry. I think his push on Jan should have been revaluated a while ago and I really dont find anything he has said this game villagery, the issues I had with him d1 are all still there. In the end if he is a wolf who decided to buss at eod1 his posting would look pretty much exactly like this



Gonna talk about benneh cause it ties into my knights read well enuf since knights/benneh is a thing I have been strongly considering in my mind from like early d1. I have been unfair to benneh this game and for that sorry, I know i have been lazy as fuck in actually reading you. I think their bottom 4 being 3 pr claims+1 me isnt a great sign and i think the way he is pushing maple today is a bit sueperficial but more importantly I just cant really find villa benneh after 3 days which is pretty unsual.



And then we have the 3 PR claims:

ender - i want him to claim for clarity cause he has been softing giving stett somethign and that seems to kinda counterclaim maple but he has been vague about it. Idk I just feel there is so much pr claims+he is in the POE where I dont see any reasong for him not to claim. Gth think villa but want claim. Not w/w with benneh


maple - i'll be real, the only thing I dislike with manti wrt the claim is that they said they were self confirmable yesterday which isnt exactly true even if someone got the card since apparentely manti does nto know what the cards do? I think arctic was an ok target given how many PR claims were around

wisdom - i am sad but i think they are just a wolf. Their firefighter claim mechanically just doesnt make sense to me, I have seen them claim early as a wolf before, their d2 was pretty bad and i thought their vanta push on d2 in particular felt super lazy from them. I just think from d2 on they have missed the SPARK. I also dont like they they have been leaning on their softs as a way to make their claim more villagery- the truth is that most villagers dont actually care to soft. If it helps bop also wanted them dead before dying

Ladd what do you think of the following

Sunbae saying today that Knights is close to lock v for them for eod1 activity

yea i have been considering sunbae/knights too (tho i remember knights was v hard on sunbae d1 but maybe not outside of distancing range); i think benneh/knights is a smoother fit but shrug.pg

i think its v easy to read knights by reading eod1 since he had a good buss, should he be a wolf. But with wagons essentially being w/v (rask counts as v) I am just left wondering wtf wolves were doing

Jan was giving them an out to save syn but no one defended syn, except jan himself (and super softly ender); so imo either wolves were not around or were bussing

I could be wrong on knights obviously, but to me right now it just feels like he bussed and there is no more much space to hide

Maple kinda just not doing much so far today? Perhaps this is uncharitable to say but beyond Maple making two posts which are functionally just lists of players he likes the most Maple has done imo is try to get one more day via Jan the jailkeeper. Thats something that’s been increasing my confidence the slot is a hit today

i dont really have manti as villagery, so I am not sure I have an answer to that

I think manti posting today is in either of their ranges

If Maple and or Wisdom flips w how does that impact your read on Benneh?

i had benneh/wisdom as slightly not w/w d1 but i dont think it's a read i'd be willing to uphold on d3

maple flip has no effect on benneh alignment afair

If you had sole control of the elim who would it be? I assume wisdom? I want Maple to die today but wouldn’t be super mad if Wisdom went. Also if you could talk a bit about Gemma to I appreciate it bc I think Gemma v but don’t have that high

I would kill wisdom


Gemma had the single most important vote at eod1 (made syn an actual possibility) and their posting today and since shows an underlying level of paranoia that is pretty rare for a wolf to fake. Like I dont think this is a post made by a wolf:

@ladd do i understand correctly it's basically just the mech? did you have any other thoughts besides mech wrt wisdom since your opinion changed? um and about the mech did you, think about dyachei's roleclaim that they have a vig shot that gets blocked when target is visited by another person does that in some way mesh with a village/wolf firefighter? (my gth take is a village power role thats only function is to block another village powerrole is kinda... uh, unlikely ig? Is that correct, also @insomnia just in case u have thots, but if she is a wolf im not quite sure how the wolves are to work out how they would have to use it either)

long before the claim you kinda had a "if im wrong on someone it'd be wisdom" line um, do you remember why you were conflicted?