Tarot Mafia

[EnderWiggin]

D5 - venta, ability modifier - was looking specifically for a cop action.

Wait wait.

Hold up.

How did you know which of the two cards you gave Vanta?

[EnderWiggin]

As to the game structure, 17-1-4 seems unusually anti-Mafia for a modern setup. I don't recall that Visor gives LYLO alerts as a rule, so it's best to assume 5 maf, lost or not. If one's lost, I might be fated to endgame with t-Ender and get MLed.

Ouch.

[Visor]

Players Votes

Wisdom 3 (Montmorency, grr, EnderWiggin)
Montmorency 1 (Wisdom)

[Maple]

Wait wait.

Hold up.

How did you know which of the two cards you gave Vanta?

Inductive reasoning. If the card I selected is a medic, visor is trolling.

Noted on everything.

Frustrating that most people aren't posting enough for me to get good reads out there

[Maple]

Here's how I got confused.



Your current read, I guess.



The last time you mentioned vanta was D4, and you had him POE congruent to me.

So to be clear, you moved him up (but not me) over D5, and as of SOD6 you had him high, but now want to move him back down???

Ah to be clear, that is most wolfy to least wolfy as of my discussion with Jan when I was jailed. Knights and wisdom got swapped, and those three were killed.

You vanta and wisdom are the only three survivors of that list so unless that's the exact team I need to reeval.

Which I have. Again.

[insomnia]

so

who's gonna be our beacon of productivity
@Wisdom are those gonna be the final words? you're just taking the lunch?

[Maple]

Well hopefully its a hit!

[Montmorency]

One of you inventors please set me up with an investigative.

Vanta, can you give us a heads up on what your action tonight is?

[Maple]

I'm kind of just going around in circles right now.

There's so many *maybes*. We need vanta to claim mechs, wisdom needs to do *literally anything*. I've been posturing *extreme willingness* to go anywhere but there today so not seeing, I dunno, any galvinization whatsoever from that fact is bothersome.

There's the issue of the unaccounted kill, there's a real possibility we've had saves so far this game, there's the rough *impossibility* of an arso except in a couple very weird and very specific cases. There's the fact that of 2 players are doused, in one of those hypotheticals, we lose unless we hit kp today - which we have very little info on.

I have some good speculation about various things here but I need vanta's claims before I have enough of a picture in order to begin making proper deductions.

The net is rapidly closing in with eod approaching so we're more or less left banking on this being a hit, unless something happens.

In general, my feelings is that the wolves had 2 goons, an invest, a gated vigi, and *some role* incentivized to target wolves. It can't be an ungated role. It's probably motivator. 1 shot, maybe 2. Their vigi is either even, or x shots, or we've gotten a *lot* of saves. Given the player count and village having access to let's say 5 kills.

Wolves should have access to roughly the same number, based on the game being 22p. I'm think rask's role was either full sk or maybe some kind of survivor role with access to upwards to 2-3 kills.

For the sake of post-game let's call the setup

Tracker/vig "joat"
Painter
2x vigi
Jk/1x vigi
Dolby strong-willed Jan, mostlikely. That, or ascetic but doing that would be weird. Not the inverter, he or knights always claim it. Or a klepto/gravedigger who dug up arctic and tracked jan to dya; d3 target arctic, n3 track jan to dya. Or full backup who backed up arctic, though this possibility is nearly impossible (dolby has dozens of games on MU at least + cohosted a game where universal town backup was a role + would have just claimed this information) this would imply that either dolby digs up all PRs (which he *really* should have claimed) or that arctic was the first PR killed. Still, i think dolby claims all this before dying so its unlikely. Last possibility is a role that targets a player learns what all of their previous visits were. Stett, dya, dya.
1 more PR, tops. Either a dead inverter in sunbae/gemma that stacked on the other + stacked on dya, or the inverter is wolf, or the inverter isn't a village role.

2 goons
Vigi (even, 4x, full, nonconsec, etc.)
Utility if this is the inverter it is either disloyal (implying ender v), or Wolves were very conservative with it and used it on me/Jan or it is a cop/inverter (n1 me n2 Jan n3 ender , was Ben and died or ran out of shots or has gone to ground and is only targeting wolves who arent claiming)
Maybe a cop/rb hybrid? Maybe something more exotic? Or no RB at all because we have too many day actions + the vigi is disrupted by stacking with any action.

---

Dunno. My read on the setup is that wisdom is fake in like most of the worlds that make sense. The only way we have an arso is a) an arso that targets during the day b) an arso who was motivated and doused/ignited the same night OR doused twice n1.

Kill NC, douse stett and bop. Shoot arctic.

Or

Kill NC, shoot arctic with the faction, motivated vigi shoots stett+bop.

Or

Wolves have 2 roles with KP mechs that needed to be turned on. 2 consecutive non-v votes turned on a wolf 1x vigi + they had a ENV. Who was either Ben or we got saves n4. No one is claiming a save for that night, which means in this scenario a team of 3 is out of KP and either a ff w/ no arso is a troll or fake. This is the best case scenario in the team of 3 world.


---

Wolves *should* have access to some kind of disruption though.

So let's say hypothetically ender is a wolf. My theory is thus:

A) motivator. EN, maaaaybe 1x. Inverted N3 into copier. Motivated a vigi (Ben most likely) N2, copied me N4.
B) same as above, but motivated an arso.
C) some other scenario that I don't have enough info to envision

---

The most likely ender!v world is one where wolves have an arctic foil and are out of KP. Wisdom is either trolled or w in that world. Wisdom+2.

The W worlds are either the same as above and their cop turned into 1x vigi and is dry + Ben was ENV or x shot that was motivated and is now dry or the arso worlds. Inverted from motivator into copier, or was a previously unknown PR like cop or rber or *whatever* and flipped into copier. Most likely partners with vanta+1.

Anyway

I wrote this entire post on mobile so the formating is gonna be soooooo fucked

[Vanta Black]

I do not know what to think about the lack of activity in the last 24 hours lmao.

Sorry, it was my birthday and I took it real easy, as far as I could (had to work though).

[Vanta Black]

One of you inventors please set me up with an investigative.

Vanta, can you give us a heads up on what your action tonight is?

Unless I get some other card I don't have an action tonight. I have a modifier.

[Maple]

Would you kindly full claim the two cards including what each are called and who you targeted last night? Many thanks


A note on the above unhinged ramblings, I forgot to mention that given no ignition arso!wolves are either dry dolby was a douse, or grr is not wolf. 1 extra kill last night wins the game for a team of three, so grr+2 including an arso w/ 1 douse wins it. A team of 2 would have to wait and we still lose if we don't hit here but ya know it's pog

[grr]

so

who's gonna be our beacon of productivity
@Wisdom are those gonna be the final words? you're just taking the lunch?

yeah hi. sure ill jump through a few hoops so it doesnt look like i ghosted the game. can you explain why umm, you dipped several EoDs (not sure if it was 2 or 3) without notification of leaving? and why and how you came to the vanta-v-read in detail.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

@didistetter i... ummm... i'm sorry lmfao. idk im crying and laughing at the same time forgive me for my sins lol.

[insomnia]

yeah hi. sure ill jump through a few hoops so it doesnt look like i ghosted the game. can you explain why umm, you dipped several EoDs (not sure if it was 2 or 3) without notification of leaving? and why and how you came to the vanta-v-read in detail.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

@didistetter i... ummm... i'm sorry lmfao. idk im crying and laughing at the same time forgive me for my sins lol.

cuz im slep

as for the vanta read, i've made an iso of them and explained in full detail

[insomnia]

Vote: Wisdom

i guess

[grr]

ok so.

the easiest name to start with is vanta black cuz they have low content. i'll give my current thoughts as they are and then skim their iso because i remember it being pretty low content

this is a name that i don't think is a wolf. in my world, the wolves either did fakeclaiming (so wisdom / maple, at least 1 there) or they did ~nothing. especially in terms of EoD1. we already know syn and benneh weren't there and apart from knights, i doubt a wolf was present.

which is why vanta should be an easy sort fmpov, they fit that profile

except, they seemed villagery to me. it's not exactly impossible to be out of it and be a wolf (cuz this is what im saying this team is doing if it's not maple / wisdom), but there's an undertone of genuineness that i didn't pick up in their wolfgame. they just seem to be going with the flow of things and figuring things out without caring what the thread thinks of it, which is kinda opposite to what knights is doing imo. knights just seems 10x more calculated and having TMI than vanta, in that i really dont believe his pushes are real in the context they're being thrown around. he just seems to be contrarian for the sake of it and to powerwolf, whereas from vanta i pick up more of a vibe of "idkwhat'sgoingonmybffjill". their solving isn't directed to the thread as "look, im anticonsensus", whereas knights just goes balls deep into every push on the top names while having extremely poor reasoning and at times where they don't make sense to make (jan / ladd didn't make sense to be so strong at those points in time imo, as neither do i view myself as the right person to look at today with wisdom / maple unflipped and sunbae still alive despite him doing less than me imo)

admittedly, there's a chance im underestimating vanta black, but i don't think so. as a wolf they're just a lot more stilted and in here they seem really care free and not like they have a target on their back, which is what i expect they'd feel like. but ofc im gonna recheck

like. u didnt quote a single post to explain what u mean so ill just go by your words here.

so this their wolfgame: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...postid=8045547

i dont see how... ummm. like they wouldnt be going with "the flow of things" or being genuine here in their wolfgame? reads p natural to me?

like there is a big difference between what stetters meta case on newcomb d1 was and yours on vanta. i understood the first one. i never understood the latter. lol

sleep is fine ofc i fell asleep when rask died too, but it felt so abrupt every time lol, but this point is like, w/e ig.

[grr]

so like uh. do i rly have to stay awake till 3 am just to see the endgame credits becuz im not sure i hate myself enough for that?

[grr]

majority disabled is cruel technology tbh who invented that lol.

[insomnia]

so like uh. do i rly have to stay awake till 3 am just to see the endgame credits becuz im not sure i hate myself enough for that?

nope, go sleep

i'll re-read vanta's iso and explain, but the stark difference is that they were mega awkward in that one and were very logical, in here they did a lot of irrational things and they don't care as much about the appearance of their posting / voting

can you see the difference now?

read her first vote and how detailed it is and logic oriented compared to the time they dropped a drive-by read of bop. they mentioned they wolfread him and that she'll come back to it later to quote the posts, described it as a vibe thing.

idk, does her iso there not read like omega awkward? it does to me /shrug

[insomnia]

i don't really like to apply meta reads to people i don't have first hand experience with, but they just seem like the type that it's safe to do so

i hope they are just snowing me though

i particularly think with how logic oriented they are as a wolf, the fact they were considering dya when it was clear to everyone they were a villa is a really good sign imo

[insomnia]

idk if i have a right to be upset with wisdom if she's a villa here, but she legit posted a PoE at SoD, implied would do more and then had 2-3 posts that were one liners

i get she was sus'd all game, but today it didn't feel like to me that we bulldozered her or anything

hopefully she's just a wolf that thinks she lived too long and is happy to eat the lunch now after delaying for ages

[Visor]

Players Votes

Wisdom 4 (Montmorency, grr, EnderWiggin, insomnia)
Montmorency 1 (Wisdom)

[insomnia]

idk if i have a right to be upset with wisdom if she's a villa here, but she legit posted a PoE at SoD, implied would do more and then had 2-3 posts that were one liners

i get she was sus'd all game, but today it didn't feel like to me that we bulldozered her or anything

hopefully she's just a wolf that thinks she lived too long and is happy to eat the lunch now after delaying for ages

i mean that i feel like we gave her the space today to do anything, we didn't jump on her with a hundred questions but she just... doesn't care

oh well

hoping she's a villa so it can be over tho

[insomnia]

vote: dyachei

I feel like I have to pick one on account of the claims.

this post is good because from wolves' pov, rask is the infinitely easier option because they have all the reasons to be voting him

not to mention rask claimed additional shots. from wolves' pov it's 2 villa vigs claiming, who do you kill? the one who has shots, or the one who doesn't?

[grr]

nope, go sleep

i'll re-read vanta's iso and explain, but the stark difference is that they were mega awkward in that one and were very logical, in here they did a lot of irrational things and they don't care as much about the appearance of their posting / voting

can you see the difference now?

read her first vote and how detailed it is and logic oriented compared to the time they dropped a drive-by read of bop. they mentioned they wolfread him and that she'll come back to it later to quote the posts, described it as a vibe thing.

idk, does her iso there not read like omega awkward? it does to me /shrug

what im seeing is they werent inquisitive there. and they WERE inquisitive in there towngame: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...postid=7967904

and they arent really inquisitve here.

they are just like, fitting the profile of a guy who pops in occasionally to provide the bare minimum of "solving" input but you can barely see they *care* about figuring anything out. becuz i think they arent.

just feels like a super wolfy iso to me.

but like, honestly, i cant really figure this out completely cuz i have. like. 4 wolves. and there are only 3 wolves max (probs 3). so uh. like obviously im wrong somewhere. like there is deadass 4 people when they flip town im gonna be like u wot now mate?! how lol.

nya gn. cya.

[insomnia]

i went back to read some of their posting and i guess i just can't see it

im not saying i can't be wrong cuz this game is spooky as it is, but im just browsing some posts here and looking at their wolfgame and they just seem really mega stilted there, as opposed to here

another thing im witnessing is that they were really apologetic about their actions that game and they are obviously playing it extremely low this game and not doing that? which makes it feel like they aren't wolfing

fully possible im reading into the wrong things but still, the awkwardness thing i just can't undo

there's just a bluntness in some of the posts they're making and the questions they're asking just make me think there are wheels spinning in their head

i didn't wanna say this line cuz i can be wrong, especially since im really poorly informed about everything in the thread, but if you don't see it i guess it's just experience speaking when gauging different archetypes

hope they fool'd me cuz im admittedly underestimating them

[insomnia]

it's funny cuz im obviously wrong somewhere. i just don't know who that is

even if wisdom is wolf, idek where to go. idk if it means a 3 wolf team or a 2 man one

i think that i'd ease up on mont by quiteee a lot. even before pushing her today, he's had the same initiative on d2 and flashwagonned from both the vig claims, which is a mega good look. so i'd probably clear him

but i feel like we might just endgame here and the team is some fucked up combo of maple / ender / +1

at which point you just move on

[insomnia]

maybe i shouldn't say that given wisdom legit just gave up, but i fear that villas are in more of a habit to do that for inexplicable reasons than wolves

hoping for the best

[Vanta Black]

Would you kindly full claim the two cards including what each are called and who you targeted last night? Many thanks


A note on the above unhinged ramblings, I forgot to mention that given no ignition arso!wolves are either dry dolby was a douse, or grr is not wolf. 1 extra kill last night wins the game for a team of three, so grr+2 including an arso w/ 1 douse wins it. A team of 2 would have to wait and we still lose if we don't hit here but ya know it's pog

Okay, I kinda don't want to name the cards, no one has named their cards yet. You know what you gave me, and based on its action and what you said I believe it was the action modifier, specifically an "accelerator" that makes actions happen before other actions.

The other one was a protection. I used it on myself.

[Maple]

I have specifically named what cards I both recieved and gave out. Flavour claiming and discussion is allowed in this game.