Gemma's Favorite Music Mafia

[ladd]

@Visor bleh go ahead and track arctic pls
@Totally not Taffy idk who's good to douse but i truly truly dont think annika ever sells out a partner (afk or otherwise) to shield PR. She was scumreading arctic until eod then switched, that's not w/w for her. Please don't douse that. Selfishly a douse but not ignite on benneh might be fiiiiiiiiiiiiiiine but also idk. I won't cry if you light up tonight but it would be a massive bummer to turn mountainous


Dunno lol minimum one wolf is playing rlly well. Would be swag if maple/dya could give more thots, but availability/investment can't be forced

@annika disloyal inventor is extremely possible. Do not lock clear maple for the claim. That would be like lock clearing wisdom for claiming 2-shot firefighter.

why are we tracking arctic?

and ya second to not douse annika plz

[ladd]

the most solid thing i landed on is that ender/artic has exactly 1 wolf, the other depends a lot from who of those 2 is the wolf


but regardless prolly gonna be a pain in the ass to find

bbl to make a vote but its gonna be 1 of the above i think

[ladd]

random setup spec thought - rask role being an hard counter to taffy is a bit weird cause like if taffy is the only villa kp and they are being countered this hard its kinda useless? rask role basically means that realistically no wolves would die to bombs until that role is alive

[nebjiamn]

random setup spec thought - rask role being an hard counter to taffy is a bit weird cause like if taffy is the only villa kp and they are being countered this hard its kinda useless? rask role basically means that realistically no wolves would die to bombs until that role is alive

i mentioned this and kinda why i think it outs taffy as just 3p. the role if 3p sorta serves as gated KP for wolves while also offering some EV for town in certain situations, but not to the lengths that it makes sense as a town role?

either way taffy cannot be a wolf mechanically unless this game is some level of bastard so we don't really need to worry about it for now. if we can't kill wolves before taffy's wincon kicks in then we failed in other ways

---

audrey got her black belt btw! proud papa.

some random musings:

• idk why arctic thinks I have to think lissa looks uninformed for her overnight drunkposting only if I think he is flipping town? i truly can't make any sense of that
• i think waza's reaction to arctic being 'outed wolf' overnight is near lock clearing? volunteering as the elim for his 'abhorrent wolfsiding' fhpov so arctic can be ignited just doesn't seem like how a wolf reacts to the news, whether its real or fake?
• i thought of some other posts dya made earlier yesterday and i'm more conflicted on them again. the way they reaffirmed how lissa was reading ladd rang really true to me and a classic v!dya read/thought. and overall i think dya is in an odd position to be trying to push out miselims on the likes of sunbae/ladd while also being so absent all game, but without really being wolfy when they have time and are around?
• some mild caveats to the above bullet point: i do think the way dya didn't talk about ladd all day 1 and entered the d2 'relieved' about his posting after he found them around eod1 is still a bit wolfy. i think the later elaboration about how ladd was missing something is more in line with how i'd expect dya to read him, but the fact that the early sod2 read seemed so fickle, i can't really scratch that itch. and its weird in a way that i feel like gives ladd/dya equity as a team more than it does for them to be v/w with him.
• i know i made the point above but taffy's posts stink d2 lol. they had a post calling arctic outed wolf that just rings sorta overinflated for how they talik about arctic earlier in the post. and i don't really have any idea what other thoughts they have + their posting d1 about being more available d2 and wanting to mason with someone and it just really ending up in Taffy (15) while they should be basically 'clear' ftpov is just kinda meh
• i think visor's read on the game sucks. besides maybe where he's at on dya. if he's town he's ingesting all the bullshit that doesn't matter and ignoring the things that do IMHO
• yall should kill manti on day 4 when their claim still illcits nothing of value for town
• i've read eod again and i legit think its just all town on rask with a minor chance of a visor or lissa bus. i agree with stett that we very likely don't live in a 2-wolves-stacked world, but there's a chance one did
• i just think its way more likely between the postcap and actions around wagons that villagers were the ones causing chaos and it ended well. of the active players at eod, any number of them could have settled for v/v/v wagons and not put anything at risk. the opportunity cost just doesn't seem there to me unless a wolf was wagoned and in serious contention that wasn't rask
• if ender is a wolf the opportunity cost could be there for a team like ender/lissa i suppose but i'm struggling to see if for any team besides that? idk ill ruminate more

---

courtesy vote count and postcap checker

Turby Org Vote Counter v1.0
Day 2 - Votes from post 671 through 1053

Votes	Target	Voters (Posts in Phase)
5	Arctic	Totally not Taffy (15), EnderWiggin (21), nebjiamn (47), Lissa (26), pzelda (25)
1	Maple	waza (35)
1	SLEEP	Maple (28)
1	Lissa	Arctic (48)
1	dyachei	Visor (22)
4	Not Voting	ladd (32), didistetter (41), annika (25), dyachei (8)

[ladd]

Yea]dya coming in today thinking i could be a wolf for not getting ther eon them quick enough (i villa read them like maybe 10 posts in) is kinda ridicolous given how they are playing

But i just struggle so much with that post @ sunbae and thinking they made it as a wolf


vote:ender

Idk i'll feel bad if arctic is a wolf who slipped but i think ejder is less villagery and i think 1 of them is always a wolf

I dont expect this vote to change anything, but sorry if wrong anyway eheh

@titally not taffy plz do not douse annika

[ladd]

Also ender can be a wolf with way more people, arctic i just dunno who he could be a wolf with

[Visor]

what do you make of lissa/benneh/stett pushing so hard for arctic if you tinjk he is v?

also thoughts on lissa and maple?

[waza]

this is such a good read. yall should learn how to read me from annika


but really, nice read. that was exactly my mindset when i made that post

Wtf ?

[waza]

Wtf ?

Oh dang I did an emoji after the WTF but that got changed to a question mark which changes the post from a light hearted one to a sarcastic one

Yeah I’m wasting posts because I’ve mentally checked out from the game ever since the pr claims - idk why but sorting through mech always kills my wim - sorry team, I’ll probs get back into it more after some flips and after most of the pr stuff is sorted and the claims are dead (hopefully) - provided I’m still alive

[ladd]

what do you make of lissa/benneh/stett pushing so hard for arctic if you tinjk he is v?

also thoughts on lissa and maple?

Nothing much tbh? I think benneh push is genuine and again i just cant see the dude as a wolf. Same with stett

Lissa looks worse to me if arctic is a villager but i do think they are more likely v than not (partially sunbae sheep)

Maple also looks bit worse if arctic v and i feel taffy woukd need to be 3p for all 4 pr claims to be real. But honestly i am inclined to think they are real


To be clear i think there is an okay chance i am wrong on artic being v as slme of their posting todsy seemed to be trying to pocket me/making me look aligned to them but uh yolo

[waza]

Yea]dya coming in today thinking i could be a wolf for not getting ther eon them quick enough (i villa read them like maybe 10 posts in) is kinda ridicolous given how they are playing

But i just struggle so much with that post @ sunbae and thinking they made it as a wolf


vote:ender

Idk i'll feel bad if arctic is a wolf who slipped but i think ejder is less villagery and i think 1 of them is always a wolf

I dont expect this vote to change anything, but sorry if wrong anyway eheh

@titally not taffy plz do not douse annika

Vote:ender

Sure let’s end another day voting with ladd lol

[ladd]

Vote:ender

Sure let’s end another day voting with ladd lol

Whatcouldgowrong.jpg

[waza]

Whatcouldgowrong.jpg

Given that I don’t even have a reason to scumread ender and am just pushing buttons randomly, a lot could go wrong lol

[ladd]

K i am going to sleep

Dont forget to blame waza if ender goes over and is a villager

If artic gets got and flips w should prolly track me

If artic gets got and flips v go with god

[nebjiamn]

i'd still kill arctic. i'm not really inspired by his solve on return and not just cause he is pushing me. and i think the coincidences are just too high--i think its way more likely he responded the way he did about the sunbae kills because he knew wolves killed him and was trying to catch me in a weird post to generate content that wasn't really solving. but it was such a throwaway he prob claimed even night counterpart later not even realizing what sunbae's role was in the first place lol

he could be a town for sure and i would not be mad at him if he genuinely derp'd but i just think everything makes more sense in the world he's a wolf. me bringing up wolves may not have killed sunbae should have triggered something in his brain to think for a second considering his role. instead he went to the worlds that are way less likely (a doc save + a vig shooting sunbae) and i just dont really believe his brain wouldn't stop for a second and go 'hmm?'

additionally idt you should be voting the elim based off who may or may not have equity as a partner. ender could be wolf here, especially if arcy town, but voting him cause he has more plausible partners atm seems ~wrong? (i know you are saying you have him more towny anyway but that is more of a digression by me anyway)

plus he's been exceedingly more towny in every org game when he has been town and annika is voting him (or wanting to at least) and annika goat so GG go next

post 49 for me and im takin the kiddo out to celebrate soon. ill check in at like 4:55 in case wagons become relevant in a way away from arctic or smth

glgl

[waza]

i'd still kill arctic. i'm not really inspired by his solve on return and not just cause he is pushing me. and i think the coincidences are just too high--i think its way more likely he responded the way he did about the sunbae kills because he knew wolves killed him and was trying to catch me in a weird post to generate content that wasn't really solving. but it was such a throwaway he prob claimed even night counterpart later not even realizing what sunbae's role was in the first place lol

he could be a town for sure and i would not be mad at him if he genuinely derp'd but i just think everything makes more sense in the world he's a wolf. me bringing up wolves may not have killed sunbae should have triggered something in his brain to think for a second considering his role. instead he went to the worlds that are way less likely (a doc save + a vig shooting sunbae) and i just dont really believe his brain wouldn't stop for a second and go 'hmm?'

additionally idt you should be voting the elim based off who may or may not have equity as a partner. ender could be wolf here, especially if arcy town, but voting him cause he has more plausible partners atm seems ~wrong? (i know you are saying you have him more towny anyway but that is more of a digression by me anyway)

plus he's been exceedingly more towny in every org game when he has been town and annika is voting him (or wanting to at least) and annika goat so GG go next

post 49 for me and im takin the kiddo out to celebrate soon. ill check in at like 4:55 in case wagons become relevant in a way away from arctic or smth

glgl

This is pretty compelling though

Vote:sleep

[ladd]

vote:unvote


Fair enuf. Deep down i kinda think u are right but eh

Ill just let it happen

Adieu

[waza]

If arcy flips town im probs gonna kill every other pr claim too tomorrow and following day until we get a red lol, and if they’re all real then welp ggs wp

[ladd]

If arcy flips town im probs gonna kill every other pr claim too tomorrow and following day until we get a red lol, and if they’re all real then welp ggs wp

Good thing i am not a pr

[waza]

vote:unvote


Fair enuf. Deep down i kinda think u are right but eh

Ill just let it happen

Adieu

Same lmao it seems right even if I don’t want it to be the case

[dyachei]

This weekend is especially bad for me, sorry. Personal stuff that doesn't need to be in the game.

Anyway lissas read on me feels really uncharitable from her and the fact that Ben is considering it also feels bad. I'm not trying to push miselim, I'm trying to solve the game and sunbae wasn't acting like himself. Sorry not sorry there.

Idk man, I think arctic has to go even if taffy could kill him.

Vote: arctic

[dyachei]

On another vote I wish Ben would like talk to me instead of mostly about me. I'm starting to have concerns that maybe I was too quick to read Annika v and he's out of posts again to talk about it

[pzelda]

@pzelda can you describe what exactly about arctic's posting in the last 6 hours you townread? Because frankly i think his posts are pretty goddamn wolfy and he's thrashing about like a desperate animal in a trap hoping to find something for people to latch onto and push instead of himself.

The lissa and ben reads just don't feel grounded in how they've approached thread at all to me, and his focus and walling about "here's why we kill x instead of me" and then just shrugging off my question when I gave him an alternative to someone I thought did have a pluasibly wolfy reaction to his claim if he is V (you) was weak sauce.

So walk me through it, what exactly about this slush of franeticicsm can you "not help but like?" Especially considering: 983, 987, 1005, and 1007?

The problem of playing the game while also doing something else is that I tend to forget details. So, let's focus on broader stokes. The first thing I liked is that Arctic came back and started fighting. And tbh his posts are quite contentful. If mafia, he's quite confident in his skill to sway us away.
I agree that his Lissa and Ben reads are a weak salsa. I was thinking about that while writing the previous lines and I hope I'm not creating a narrative here. For w!Arctic targeting Benneh or Lissa would be an obvious strategy here. Their death would mean a removal of a strong town player. It would be a win win for an evil Arctic. They would stay alive longer, remove a threat and get another chance to thrive.
If Arctic is V, I see some logic in pushing the people who push you.

Also, the bus driver is driving like crazy, honking his way through traffic.

[Totally not Taffy]

I find the attempts to keep me alive by calling me 3p and trying to get Visor shot endearing.

Taffy (17)

[waza]

Ya my gut still tells me it’s not dya

So if Arctic flips wolf - we have a misclear
If Arctic flips town - we have more than a misclear lmao

Hoping for the latter since that sounds more fun

[waza]

If it is the latter maple friendo you should probs start working on your next fake claim from now lols

[pzelda]

idk actually lmao cus visor confirmed maple's claim. unless that's like. wolf inventor. but if that actually exists and it got randed to maple im gonna CRY

i have no thoughts on lissa's posting today, i just dont think it's ben

Why is Annika in towncores again I don't like the tone here.

Also, to give this post another purpose. Let's discuss an option of Arctic not being a wolf. If Arctic's real and town, who is Mafia?

[waza]

We should probably leash maples invention

However if you give it to me @Maple I won’t ever vote you tomorrow

[dyachei]

Why is Annika in towncores again I don't like the tone here.

Also, to give this post another purpose. Let's discuss an option of Arctic not being a wolf. If Arctic's real and town, who is Mafia?

I'm beginning to think she shouldnt be

[pzelda]

[SPOILER=Order of votes eod:]On #640 maple, arctic, sundae, annika all sitting at 2 votes, post sunbae and taffy claims

Lissa votes arctic
Waza unvotes arctic
Arctic votes taffy
Waza votes taffy
Visor votes taffy
Stett votes rask
Benneh votes ladd

4 votes on taffy (arctic, visor, ladd, waza)
3 votes on arctic (ender, lissa, taffy)
2 on sundae (dya, pzelda)
Rest vanities

Arctic susses maple, lissa defends taffy
Benneh votes maple
Visor votes rask at :59 (makes wagons 3, 3, 2, 2)
Annika votes rask at :59 (makes wagons 3, 3, 3, 2)
Benneh votes rask at :59 (4,3,3)
Ender swaps to maple (4, 3 (on taffy), 2)
Lissa then votes rask (5, 3 (on taffy), 2) [/SPOILER]

Few things: it’s possible ender saw ben’s vote on maple and went there hoping it might get traction over rask since me/annika were actively saying “don’t kill arctic”
Lissa didn’t vote till arctic wagon was fully dismantled: she had already said she didn’t want to vote taffy, so she can’t tie there as maf.

I truly don’t think off votes ben/lissa are like… ever a pair tho arctic.
Rask doesn’t need to die there. Ben and lissa can both go on maple, tying wagons 3/3/3, and annika or me would viably join them to save taffy. There can be one busier but I don’t think there’s ever two. Lissa had the read justification to go on either arctic or maple. Ben can easily vote maple (annika and I might cook him if he goes arctic)

Voting an afk really isn’t enough cred to justify double stacking there

Thanks! This is a helpful post. I read eod but I didn't realize that Annika's vote was crucial in voting out Rask.