Quote Originally Posted by Tribesman View Post
Don't forget the other civil wars in waiting . Iraqs problems are characterised by more than just the release of long pent up sunni/shia disputes
This is a telling point. I was reading a bit of AP wire on Iraq the other day and it became obvious to me that, at the least, M. Al Sadr will make a bid for power. Tribes' is almost certainly correct that he will not be alone in this effort and that wars -- the plural -- is the likely scenario.

We need to take as a given, for planning purposes, that once US forces draw down and exit Iraq for Kuwait and points elsewhere, there WILL be civil war in Iraq.

For me, the question is: will a longer stay provide the "central" government time enough to develop forces, credibility, and connections between groups sufficient to allow it to survive and, eventually, marginalize the various "players" in revolt.

All we are currently proving is that the world's best military, using a ridiculous amount of resources, can impose security while, and for as long as, we're willing to continue to expend the same level of resources and effort. Iraq, totally propped up in terms of force structure, is doing better and better on its own. But does it have a hope of riding once the training wheels come off? A fall or two is inevitable, but it only works if they're willing to get up afterwards. I'm not sure.