The Scourge of Ephesus [Concluded]

[Sigurd]

I had to quickly read over the thread again to freshen up on things.
The night reports from Andres were particularly interesting (hard to find without a separate thread or links in the OP).

Night one #102
Night two #259
Night three #317
Night four #428

On the first night there was only one kill by a silenced gun. There is also something about a hysterical man and blades.

Second night has no kills, but yet again the hysterical man whet stoning a sword which is incidentally dropped and later picked up by the athletic man. Also, he seems to talk to someone or is schizophrenic. Two men digging up the graves of the dead looking for something and lose a gun which is later picked up by the athletic man.

Third night had three kills. Hysterical man destroys the statue of Atemis.
The shadow kills RR accusing him of seeking a package.
Two kills by men with silenced guns.

Fourth night had one kill. No mention of the hysterical man. A new character (shady figure) finds an envelope. Two dark figures dig up the graves of the dead.
The shadow kills pizzaguy implying some shady business going on.

My initial thought after reading the night reports is that we are possibly dealing with several active night roles. I have coloured them based on alignment. Neutral (green) until we can determine if they are good or bad for town.

Night one:
1 gun killer
1 crazy guy.

Night two
2 guys (digging up bodies)
1 crazy guy
1 companion of crazy guy

Night three
1 crazy guy
1 shadow killer
2 gun killers

Night four
1 shady guy
1 shadow killer
2 guys (digging up bodies)


All in all 8 characters.

I suspect however that the two gun killers and the grave diggers are the same. They are taking every other night off to dig up the bodies they shot the night before. They are obviously looking for something inside the bodies and need to kill them in order to be able to check them.

This brings us down to 6 characters.
We know that GH is the old guy and that the athletic guy has a sword and a gun. Could it be that the athletic guy is the shadow killer?
The total should then be around 7 characters.

Crazy guy and apprentice = Bernard and Juliette
2 guys with guns and showels = Günner and Fehrad
Shadow killer = Manfredo
Shady guy = secret role…
Old blocker guy (GH)

We also suspect that RR, Tevash and pizzaguy possibly had roles. But there were 2 diggers on night 4 which according to my theory counts for both Günner and Fehrad being alive.
It could also mean that even if we did kill/lynch bad guys, the bad guys are recruiting.
Could it be that YLC is the shadow killer?

My vote this round goes to CountArach. He was quite active in the first part of this game, but has since dropped off the planet. He mentioned a hectic week at work, but his initial analysis makes me suspect he is in the informed minority. He called Bernard a Godfather type. I can’t see where he would get that idea.

Vote: CountArach.

[CountArach]

My vote this round goes to CountArach. He was quite active in the first part of this game, but has since dropped off the planet. He mentioned a hectic week at work, but his initial analysis makes me suspect he is in the informed minority. He called Bernard a Godfather type. I can’t see where he would get that idea.

Vote: CountArach.

Well I'm much less busy now. I'm still busy until about Sunday but I should be able to get some posting done. I'll have some analysis done within the next hour.

[TinCow]

Sigurd, thanks for the summary, you've got some useful info there. I hadn't noticed that the repeated descriptions of the shadowy killer, but it's definitely there. Notice in the OP:

Manfredo : a man surrounded by shadows; his abilities and allegiance are secret.

The shadows aren't a coincidence, the shadow killer is Manfredo.

In addition, you point out that the athletic man picked up a gun and a sword. Both murders by the shadow killer have been with a blade, the second one specifically with a sword. This is consistent with my earlier theory that Manfredo is the athletic man.

So, it seems to me that Manfredo is leading the lynch voting and has killed two people who appeared scummy, not random targets. Thus, I think Manfredo is pro-town and is at least a vigilante, if not a combo vigilante/detective type role.

Günner and Fehrad seem to have to examine dead bodies. They seem happy to look at bodies that other people have killed to try and find their object, but they also generate more bodies of their own when needed. Their kills are more random than Manfredo's. I also do think that ATPG's death write-up and its placement immediately after the Günner and Fehrad action description gives a possibility that ATPG was either Günner or Fehrad. There is the added complication of GH blocking ATPG on that night, but the failure of that to work might have a couple causes. Maybe Günner and Fehrad are immune to it or maybe Manfredo somehow caused it to fail.

RR claims to be the hysterical man, who is essentially a 'ghost.' This now seems plausible to me based on the write-ups.

This leaves Bernard and Isabelle as the only unknown roles left. Bernard is clearly trying to kill Manfredo. Isabelle is a copy of a similar role in the previous game. That means she'll be killing people who previously voted for Bernard. I think it would be a very valuable exercise to pay close attention to who any dead person voted for if an Isabelle kill pops up. So far, she does not appear to kill, which suggests that Bernard has never received a lynch vote.