The Godfather, Part 3 [Concluded]

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Why did you post a green balloon?

Green balloons are pretty chill.

[LittleGrizzly]

Jumped on my write-up profile early and has held on for dear life, even after everyone else has moved on to other evidence. Also a decent pick for a grunt.

It wasn't just the write up... it was the response and retalitory vote and just a general gut feeling... if i had a better suspect i would happily vote for them...

[glyphz]

glyphz - Lurker, get him talking.

Been around, even during the weekend, so I guess that makes me a lurker. But not because I want to be.
As this is a more of a classic mafia game, there is (at least, so far) little to go with, and have to depend on others theories, speculations, or post/grammar/behavior analysis of others (1 thing I've been proven to be inept at).
One reason, I cannot fault Sigurd for his lack of activity. My only suspicion of him is that he could be likelier to be recruited than others, but that in itself is inconclusive. However, since YLC proved to be willing to be ousted (and almost did) in this game, something a mafia is unlikely to do, there was a need to preserve YLC (for now, at least) and vote for Sigurd and his 1/28 chance of being scum, as there were no alternative options.
In case YLC is scum, the only plausible reason he would protect Sigurd is if he is the Godfather. COnsidering both, Sigurd was my only option.

[shlin28]

Fear not minio-er... I mean citizens! I have returned!

I see that the random boombox guy has returned... I have two separate crazy theories concerning that:

1. He is random and has no meaning whatsoever.

2. He "likes" us to vote to lynch someone, and due to his general craziness, I say that he wants to be lynched. A "jestor" character if you will.

Out of all the suspects, I suspect YLC (same reasons as before) and ATPG (the more I think the more I get paranoid about him) most.

That's all for now, so good luck next day my fellow minion-er... friends! We shall give the foul murderer the most fantastic execution the history of our fair Gameroom has ever seen!

[Thermal]

I really wouldn't have voted for sigurd, he came out of Lurking and was still suspiciously seen.
my top suspects:

Ignormous- Backed by ATPG also, severe lurking, only allowing himself to post when he votes, and his vote his round had not a drop of explanation, not even a lousy excuse, mafia like that have been allowed to win far too often, very suspicious.

YLC- Does the notorious 'suicide' vote then changes his vote to sigurd, vica versa, very tiresome, if your gonna suicide vote stick to it at least, plus from what skimming of this post riot ive read your reasoning hasn't been explanatory.

[Andres]

Green balloons are pretty chill.

Blue balloons are chillier

And a snowman even more

If you would have really wanted ATPG to chill, you would at least have posted a blue balloon. However, from an experienced player like you, I expected the snowman.

This clearly proves that you are scum and I think we should lynch you the next day.

Obviously, I am proven innocent now, because I detected a mafioso.

[Thermal]

Blue balloons are chillier

And a snowman even more

If you would have really wanted ATPG to chill, you would at least have posted a blue balloon. However, from an experienced player like you, I expected the snowman.

This clearly proves that you are scum and I think we should lynch you the next day.

Obviously, I am proven innocent now, because I detected a mafioso.

Unstruciable evidence


FoA: Flowers Of Attrition - Sasaki

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Blue balloons are chillier

And a snowman even more

If you would have really wanted ATPG to chill, you would at least have posted a blue balloon. However, from an experienced player like you, I expected the snowman.

This clearly proves that you are scum and I think we should lynch you the next day.

Obviously, I am proven innocent now, because I detected a mafioso.

LINK: http://psychology.about.com/od/sensa...olor_green.htm

# Researchers have also found that green can improve reading ability. Some students may find that laying a transparent sheet of green paper over reading material increases reading speed and comprehension.

# Green has long been a symbol of fertility and was once the preferred color choice for wedding gowns in the 15th-century. Even today, green M & M's (an American chocolate candy) are said to send a sexual message.

# Green is often used in decorating for its calming effect. For example, guests waiting to appear on television programs often wait in a “green room” to relax.

# Green is thought to relieve stress and help heal. Those who have a green work environment experience fewer stomachaches.

# Blue can create feelings of sadness or aloofness.

# Blue is one of the most popular colors, but it is one of the least appetizing. Some weight loss plans even recommend eating your food off of a blue plate. Blue rarely occurs naturally in food aside from blueberries and some plums. Also, humans are geared to avoid foods that are poisonous and blue coloring in food is often a sign of spoilage or poison.

# Consider how blue is used in language: blue moon, blue Monday, blue blood, the blues, and blue ribbon.

[Andres]

LINK: http://psychology.about.com/od/sensa...olor_green.htm

This entire website is clearly fabricated beforehand as "proof" of your innocence.

I for one am not buying this fake website filled with lies.

Blue = cold. Cold = chillier.

Besides, you deliberatly ignored

[Gaius Scribonius Curio]

I have an idea, I don't know if anyone would think it's a good one. It's in spoilers.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The premise: We can trust the people who were dead while there were two murders.

That is absolute proof that they were not mafia, and that they were townies. Everyone else is a suspect. There are 2 or 3 mafia remaining, I believe one of the mafia were killed but they could be trying to mess with us. Don't see why but it is technically possible.


So: We ask the dead people who we should lynch. No one votes until they tell us. Then, the living players vote to lynch said people. If we lose the game, it will not be due to mafia coercion and interference.

I'd be willing to consider the dead from this point on also most likely innocent. If one mafia sneaks in, we just need to get the Godfather dead anyway, and the other proven innocents outnumber him.

If this is against the rules or otherwise unpalatable, I withdraw the suggested strategy. But I put it forward for consideration.

This is a good idea in principle ATPG, but I know of at least one major flaw. While the dead can certainly be trusted, as they were killed by the mafia and thus must be innocent, there is no guarantee that they are right. As an example, in Mafia VIII (in which I was mafia) I was lynched in the second-last round, due to a quick change of heart by Kukrikhan. Just about every 'dead person' still posting in that round backed me and said to lynch Kagemusha, the town didn't listen, lynched me and won. If they had have listened to the dead I would have actually won a game of mafia.

Whilst listening to the opinion of those who are murder victims is certainly a good idea, accepting their ideas as gospel is definitely not.

[White_eyes:D]

This is a good idea in principle ATPG, but I know of at least one major flaw. While the dead can certainly be trusted, as they were killed by the mafia and thus must be innocent, there is no guarantee that they are right. As an example, in Mafia VIII (in which I was mafia) I was lynched in the second-last round, due to a quick change of heart by Kukrikhan. Just about every 'dead person' still posting in that round backed me and said to lynch Kagemusha, the town didn't listen, lynched me and won. If they had have listened to the dead I would have actually won a game of mafia.

Whilst listening to the opinion of those who are murder victims is certainly a good idea, accepting their ideas as gospel is definitely not.

Too True.....We lost "Chicago soiree" because of dead people....I.E. "Lynch TinCow" then "Lynch Andres" just because everyone had different feelings about who was guilty....and Sigurd got off of it by telling Andres....."I am busy in RL"....Yeah I know.......a saying works well here...."He was a victim of his own success"

[Beefy187]

Towns lost Kung Fu because of the living.. No wait because of Beefy

Im willing to listen to what the dead has to say. It sounds like a plan for me.

[White_eyes:D]

Towns lost Kung Fu because of the living.. No wait because of Beefy

Im willing to listen to what the dead has to say. It sounds like a plan for me.

the dead should just analyze and quote, not "He is guilty, I am 100% sure he is......." I made that mistake too many times.....

[Beefy187]

the dead should just analyze and quote, not "He is guilty, I am 100% sure he is......." I made that mistake too many times.....

Congratulations for your triple 8 posts.. I hope you will be rich

[Askthepizzaguy]

@TinCow, boudica-

I know I have set off your scumdar. Oh well. I have given up on trying to prove my innocence because I have been working on solving the case, as Sasaki suggested. In fact I came home this morning just to deliver this report. (I was here at the start of night phase anyway) I will heavily spoiler it because I don't need to blind people with my verbose postations. Take it as you will, it's my SkyNet analysis. Oh, and I have cleared most of you as suspects. I only have a few jumping off the scale. But it's my opinion so it's not proof, just my analysis.

For now: Lynch me as you will or investigate me. I don't care. I am prepared to go next, too, if you wish. I heavily protest my innocence, but it doesn't matter. I think I narrowed down and nailed the proper people. Let's see if the improved SkyNet is worth it's salt.

Early game SkyNet analysis SPECTACULAR!!!!
With Super Fresh Happy Good Time (And Polite!?!?!?!?)



Skip down to the Quick Version if you want to ignore the bulk of my long-winded analysis.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Likelihood of Scum versus Town, according to my analysis:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

100% Townie:

Tratorix (dead)
CountArach (dead)
seireikhaan (dead)
boudica (dead)
TinCow (dead)
Ichigo (dead)

90% Townie

Andres (Voting pattern, behavior pattern, SkyNet approved, ATPG double stamp of approval)
Seamus Fermanagh (Voting pattern, posting behavior, good analysis, SkyNet/me approved)
White_Eyes (Voting pattern, posting behavior, good analysis, SkyNet approved, double stamp)

80% Townie

Quintus.JC
Chaotix27
Psychonaut/Rythmic
Gaius Scribonius Curio
Jolt
glyphz

Judgment Call: Townie

Sasaki Kojiro
187Beefyz
777Ares777
LittleGrizzly
Sigurd (dead)

90% Scummy

Reenk Roink
TevashSzat
Lord Winter (dead)

Suspect but not priority:

Ignoramus (Total lurker)
Taka (Lurker)
Shlin28 (Unless the investigator clears him. Please do so)

Personal belief he's not scum, though he looks scummy:

YLC

I can't tell you how surprised I was to find truly compelling townie behavior from so little activity. There were quite a few of you who did several things that I just cannot wrap my mind around doing if I were mafia. I believe everyone on my townie list is most likely innocent, and I'll post reasons for many. Others are a judgment call based on what I know of you, how you voted, and your contributions to this game, so there's a few players I still need to run through the system.

You can lynch me. If I thought I had a lot more suspects, I would fight harder to stay alive. But I think even after you de-activate me, we will have time to nail the two scumbags I've detected, and investigate the other couple who are oddballs.

You could investigate me too if you prefer, but I don't want to waste a lynch and an investigation. Do one or the other, not both.

Next up: Post count and town/mafia judgment

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Askthepizzaguy 84 (Investigate me or lynch me, I don't care.)
GeneralHankerchief 46 (Host)
Sasaki Kojiro 45 (ATPG judgment call, will recheck.)
187Beefyz 42 (ATPG judgment call, will recheck.)
Andres 37 (SkyNet approved, ATPG DOUBLE STAMP of Approval)
777Ares777 35 (ATPG judgment call, will recheck.)
TinCow 35 (dead, proven innocent)
YLC 32 (ATPG townie judgment call) Lynch later if necessary.
shlin28 24 (Will recheck, but I get a bad vibe)
LittleGrizzly 24 (ATPG stamp of approval, due to Jolt/LG feud)
Seamus Fermanagh 22 (SkyNet approved, ATPG DOUBLE STAMP of Approval)
Reenk Roink 19 (Scummy, High priority)
White_eyes:D 18 (SkyNet approved, ATPG DOUBLE STAMP of Approval)
seireikhaan 15 (dead, proven innocent)
Quintus.JC 15 (SkyNet approved, ATPG approved)
Sigurd 14 (dead)
CountArach 13 (dead, proven)
TevashSzat 12 (Scummy, High priority)
Chaotix27 12 (SkyNet approved, ATPG approved)
boudica 12 (dead, proven)
Psychonaut 12 (SkyNet approved, ATPG approved)
Gaius Scribonius Curio 12 (SkyNet approved, ATPG approved)
Lord Winter 12 (One murder, lurker, dead)
Jolt 11 (SkyNet approved, ATPG approved)
Tratorix 9 (dead, proven)
glyphz 9 (SkyNet approved)
taka 7 (low priority lurker... I actually think he's town)
Ichigo 5 (dead, proven)
Ignoramus 3 (lurking, reasonless votes) (Borderline)

Question: Can we investigate Shlin28? Seems easy enough to tell if he's mafia. If we get another grunt, I think we should lynch him even if investigation seems negative.
Um... wrote this while I was doing it. Mostly just me taking notes, to present a case.
May not even be necessary to read.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Day 3 Tally

Lord Winter: 4 (Sasaki Kojiro, White_eyes:D, YLC, Askthepizzaguy)
Sigurd: 3 (Andres, TinCow, 777Ares777)
Sasaki Kojiro: 2 (Reenk Roink, TevashSzat)
187Beefyz: 1 (Seamus Fermanagh)
Jolt: 1 (LittleGrizzly)
White_eyes:D: 1 (Gaius Scribonius Curio)
LittleGrizzly: 1 (Jolt)

Abstained: 7 (shlin28, Lord Winter, 187Beefyz, Chaotix27, taka, Rythmic, Quintus.JC)
Didn't vote: 3 (Sigurd, glyphz, Ignoramus)

~~~~~~~~~~~~


Premise: Mafia tend to have the ability to murder for their partner even if their partner is absent. No murder after this lynch tells me we actually did get a mafioso, or they are trying an absurd gambit.

If this means Lord Winter is guilty, clearly I would suggest that Sasaki Kojiro, White_Eyes, and YLC are innocent, but of course I am super, super guilty for being the deciding vote. It's the only thing that makes no sense, so it must therefore, ipso facto, cogito ergo sum, quid pro quo, habeus corpus, e pluribus unum, stare decisis, odgay essblay ericamay, hasta la vista, logically follow that I must be guilty*.

*May not be guilty in all 50 states. Offer not valid without credit approval.

About YLC, he spoke to me outside the thread (oooh... spooky mafia behavior) and suggested he was doing this stuff to bait the mafia into voting for him (easy lynch), however I suspect they would not be that lazy. At the same time, I am impressed with his insanely suicidal behavior which is intentionally drawing attention to himself AND getting him next on the chopping block with only 1 grunt remaining (as present theory dictates) so it makes no sense that he would be anything besides a townie. The mafia will murder him for being cleared as an innocent, so...
Trust me/benefit of doubt YLC.

White_Eyes would probably not vote for a fellow mafioso. I just don't see it. It's very rare and W_E doesn't strike me as the type, especially with the vote so close.

Sasaki Kojiro is TOO OBVIOUS to be chosen as a mafia grunt. People make a tradition of voting for him for no reason. Come on now. He also was partly responsible for Lord Winter's death. Unless there are two murders, (and keeping the murders at one is good for town, even as a bad mafia gambit) I suggest that we focus on other targets.

I seriously must have proven myself to you by now. I'm not quite deliberately annoying, but I intentionally played strangely earlier to get suspicion on myself to the point where you could have easily lynched me without resistance. I also put the capper vote on what may be a mafia. If you clear me, the gamble is that the mafia will have to start murdering the 4 of us, because we aren't suspects anymore.

If so, we have a narrower suspect list, and even if I am wrong about MY suspects, we are closer than before.




Does this make sense? I mean, blatant power grabs to try to control town are scummy, but it's par for the course for me and I know I will be dead soon (or my continued sleuthing and voting will come in handy...) I would suggest the odds of us winning are better if we do not go after the 4 people I mentioned.

That being said, auto-response from town is to lynch me, so... whatever makes you happy. I know I've annoyed you enough to warrant it. Occam's razor and basic mafia survival seem to indicate we're not guilty, and if you agree, mafia will kill us, because we aren't suspects and they need other suspects to stay alive, and that will further prove our innocence.

If my suspicion is correct and Sasaki is innocent, it follows that the people voting for him may be afraid of his supertownie-ness, which I am aware is so legendary that someone described my behavior as being Sasaki rebor; that player being Reenk Roink in the Scourge of Ephesus.

I believe Reenk Roink could be mafia. He's devious enough to stay alive long enough to cause us damage. He's inscrutable. He's wacky and insane. He may have come up with the idea to mask the writing styles and borrow from previous games. He voted for Sasaki. He made a serious grab for Police Chief AND he got several people to vote for him, possibly others nominating him so he wouldn't appear suspect. I know that casts doubt on me but you know... *sigh*
I'm going to not bother apologizing for my odd but good behavior and my unproven townie affiliation from this point on just to make it easier on me, OK? Let's continue.

To play it safe, TevashSzat also should be considered. Why vote for Sasaki?

Why don't I pick Andres, TinCow, and Ares? TinCow is proven innocent, as for Ares, I don't know... too obvious an attempt on Sigurd's life, and people vote him dead in every game fairly quickly. They voted for Sigurd, who I don't think is guilty but I cannot postulate that he is innocent just yet. I think it's entirely possible one of them could be mafia, and I'm leaning Andres for gut reasons and intellectual ones. So he has a chance to defend himself:

@Andres-
I believe there was a clue in the Day One writeup which meets your criteria. It mentions alcohol, and cigars are your thing with your pimp-smileys. And you're a great player who doesn't always get bandwagonned right away. You are cool under fire and can easily withstand pressure. If I were the Godfather I'd pick you as my grunt. And you haven't been mafia 3 times in a row lately, like others have.

EDIT: Nevermind, I have reason to believe you could be innocent. (After SkyNet)

Sigurd is just... well... how do I put this? Townies are stupid (collectively, not individually) and will vote him for no reason besides quietness and also he was mafia a lot recently. BAD choice this game for mafia. I could be wrong but you know, you could always investigate him to be sure. Leave the man alone. Oops, too late, he's dead. And I'm not that lucky that we'd nail a mafia with a reasonless bandwagon. Fate is too cruel.

Ignoramus: Maybe it's your style but votes without reasons, to avoid WOG's, I just don't find acceptible townie play. Sorry, I am biased being a big blabbermouth, but 3 no-reason vote posts and that's all tells me you're not willing to be even slightly suspicious in any way other than your lurking. Perhaps it's a gamble... a good gamble, lately... that you're SOOO much of a lurker that "you couldn't possibly be mafia".

Sorry, that's the kind of thinking that lost us the Chicago Soiree (along with some bad play on my part). You need to be investigated or otherwise die, in my book. But I'm not the sherriff of this here town, so I defer to the voting system.


More evidence-
Day 4 tally:

Sigurd: 6 (Andres, Sasaki Kojiro, Gaius Scribonius Curio, glyphz, taka, Reenk Roink)
YLC: 5 (Quintus.JC, Chaotix27, TevashSzat, YLC, Ignoramus)
Jolt: 1 (LittleGrizzly)
taka: 1 (Psychonaut)
Reenk Roink: 1 (Sigurd)
Psychonaut: 1 (Seamus Fermanagh)
LittleGrizzly: 1 (Jolt)
Ignoramus: 1 (Askthepizzaguy)

Abstained: 3 (shlin28, 187Beefyz, White_eyes:D)
Didn't vote: 1 (777Ares777)


If I am right, two of my suspects are right there lynching Sigurd so that YLC will be the suspect next round. I also have two of my suspects going for YLC, the next toppest vote getter-er. TevashSzat is there on YLC, Ignoramus is there on YLC, and Reenk is on Sigurd.

I don't think Sigurd or YLC are mafia, feel free to lynch YLC next, but I bet a million pizzas it's not him and AFTER THAT, you need to kill those people responsible for his death.

As such, my suggestions for the "Die or be investigated" List:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Ignoramus: Lynch soon, no recommendation to investigate. Lurker.
Reenk Roink: Lynch priority. Possible scumbag or Godfather due to his CoP run and second-thoughts leading to the drop out. Too tempting for the veteran players not to recruit him. He's the perfect mafioso and he's brilliant as I said. Low key in his own Reenky way.
TevashSzat: Priority target, see my case against him.

"Non-suspicious to me" List, with reasons:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Sasaki Kojiro- Far too obvious a choice to be mafia. People fear him too much. He helped kill Lord Winter. Think about it... this isn't a random game. The Godfather chose the mafia. Sasaki is too dangerous to be the Godfather... (perhaps) and a bad choice to be a grunt (this time.)
White_eyes:D- He's being White Eyes, and his vote contributed to LW's death. 2 murders proves that theory wrong, but the "one-murder" gambit itself extends the game and that offsets the risk.
YLC- He's being precisely the way he always is, and it always gets him killed. You underestimate him, seriously. I know he annoys you sometimes but he's more talented than you realize. And he might have helped kill a mafia, Lord Winter. Although he's really due to be mafia, he's lynchbait and therefore a poor choice for a grunt.
Askthepizzaguy- Because I am innocent. And I think I killed a mafia. And, I am innocent. Not that it matters. And I'm annoying and I put heat on myself intentionally. If it weren't for my reputation that should be enough. You CAN investigate me you know. And you can lynch me soon, I don't care. If you still have doubts, don't bother with the investigation, just lynch me.
Sigurd- Bandwagonned for poor reasons, odds are long he'd be chosen AGAIN as mafia AND lurk. To be fair, he wasn't lurking, just being quieter than some. Also, given the close vote.
Tratorix- Proven innocent by mafia kill, two murders.
CountArach- Proven innocent by mafia kill, two murders.
seireikhaan- Proven innocent by mafia kill, two murders.
boudica- Proven innocent by mafia kill, two murders.
TinCow- Proven innocent by mafia kill.
Ichigo- Proven innocent by lynch, two murders.

If after all this I am wrong, say in 2 nights, go ahead and string me up for leading you astray. This is a group effort, and if you disagree or want to ignore me, do so. I won't be offended. I anxiously await my glorious death by your hands by daring to be so analytical and annoying, for which I apologize. I also believe I'm being far too blatant about my suggestion that I'm innocent for killing Lord Winter for it to be a mafia gambit... too unlikely to persuade you. Like I said, investigate me soon or lynch me in a couple rounds; don't care. I will die before the game is over one way or another, by your hands or theirs. You pick.

Nevermind about any parts where I suggest you not lynch me. Do as you will.


And the nitty gritty of my SkyNet analysis for most of the players of the game:
Also probably unnecessary to read, but I'm showing my work. I'm attempting to clean it up and spoiler it so it's easier to read.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Reenk Roink:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Post 50: Self-incriminating joke. "I am the Godfather." He does stuff like this when he's guilty, too.

Post 113: Poses innocent-sounding question. "What does Chief of Police get to do anyway?" He's a mafia veteran and he should know this (I think... could be wrong)

Post 115: "Why is the town getting rid of my vote? Ah hell, voting is useless anyway, and I can be courteous without it. Elect: Reenk Roink"
Eager to survive to the endgame and he does usually abstain anyway.

Post 126: "I will defriend you if you don't vote for me Beefy."
Sounds like a joke, but he seriously seems to want the job.

Post 151: "Hmm, I was thinking of actually campaigning for this job (I would give most excellent Wanax writeups), but if shlin wants it, he may have it. Elect: shlin28 I request my followers to do the same and thank the ones with good intentions (think it is 9-7 shlin now)."
Changes his mind very late. Perhaps the high chance of being lynched eventually as Police Chief convinced you to abandon the strategy... or perhaps it was your mafia brethren demanding you keep your voting power.

Nothing Page 3. People murdered are Mafia Veterans.

246: "One of the reasons I gave up my claims to becoming the Po was to continue this noble tradition of abstaining, courteously"
Explains himself without being prompted to. Guilty much, Reenk?

300: Corrects flaw in tally but does not add to the discussion, he's usually talkative. He was watching the thread and not posting.

Nothing else Page 4. (at 80 posts per page on my system)

386: "Vote: Seamus Fermanagh. He is probably Mafia and tried to implicate me. I am absolutely not Mafia."
Now I trust Seamus Fermanagh too. Half-hearted, half-joking defense likely to not be detected as scummy. "He is probably Mafia"? explain how, Reenk.

388: "I put you in power and will remove you if need be."
Joke post, half-threatening, but not really. He's prompting the CoP to be more active. Well, Reenk, why don't YOU be more active, too? Saving your verbosity for the endgame?

395: "Sorry but I simply cannot allow Beefy to die this early yet again. He has been knocked off these games too early too frequently. I myself know the frustration when you join a bunch of Mafia games and are either voted off or killed early. To actually clear Beefy, here is an argument (so people can't say I'm not being helpful): The analysis on the writing styles is admirable but also, I feel it is far too exaggerated. Does anyone really believe that the guy who lifted the writeup from another game did research on all the games? He probably remembered a kill he liked and went with it. Yes there are people who would analyze kills and the game in general like that, but they are few, and the lazy are many. It is also easier than some people are saying to change writing styles. Look at the kill writeups of Reenk Roink in Mafia V against the kill writeups of Reenk Roink in Rise of the Mob. Both games interlapped by the way. You can find small changes (differing places of quotation marks, more sober punctuation use in one) as well as larger thematic changes (European vs American flavor, elaborate kills vs quick punchline kills). Look at Beefy's recent Fillet Royale game. Look how inconsistent the Watcher's letters are. All planned really.
Unvote: Seamus Fermanagh
Vote: Sasaki Kojiro
Sorry Sasaki but you will play the game if you are dead anyway. Save Beefy!"

Unnecessary defense of Beefy, votes for Sasaki. His post, carefully read, seems to be an attempt to mislead us. Unvotes Seamus.. unvoting behavior always piques my interest. He sees a chance to off Sasaki and he is THIRD ON THE BANDWAGON ON SASAKI, with no pressure on him. Safest and most scummy move in the entire mafia universe.

Tally as of post #390

187Beefyz = 2 (Seamus, Tincow)
Sasaki = 2 (GSC, YLC)
Abstain = 1 (White Eyes)

Nothing else page 5.

Post 411: "Ok, let's try to get a whole rollback of votes now, off both Sasaki and Beefy..."
Inconsistent play. Reactionary play. Unhelpful play.

416: "Trust me, it's different with Beefy, he really is one of the few "selfless townies".
Defending Beefy, but he cannot know Beefy is innocent. Scummy.

Nothing else page 6, and that's a lot of posts of silence after Tratorix questioned him thusly:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=417

534: I believe this post reveals too much:

Boudica @Everyone: "Who would you pick to be your soldiers if you were Godfather?"
Reenk Roink:
"Seamus would be one and I won't tell you the second (it would be off a list of potential suitors). Ah heck I'll tell ya! I was going for Seamus and Beefy had I gotten to be the Godfather. Seamus would be the first choice because of old timessakes. Practical reasons in his favor would be that he's one of the best at keeping his behavior and he always seems to be innocent looking and live long. Beefy because I still must work with this extremely nice and funny guy. You can't win was so incomplete. Practical reason is that Beefy is amazing as Mafia as you have all seen. I also considered an elite veteran Seamus - Sigurd tandem but Sigurd has won far far too much so I know he understands that I would share the wealth. I also considered Aries and White eyes for spots. Unfortunately they tend to get lynched through no fault of their own, but are very funny guys and I know for a fact White eyes is really good (Aries probably is too). And the most important thing is that they play the game like I like to play. I also considered YLC who I never got to play a game with as Mafia, but talked with him a lot when he hosted Whispers. Plus even though suspicion is on him, he always stays alive."

An awful lot of thought on this topic, eh, Reenk? And who would you suggest you'd pick "if you were mafia", if you WERE mafia? How about innocent people in this game. Did I nail it? Please tell me I did. Seamus, Beefy, Sigurd, Ares, White Eyes, and YLC are all probably innocent if Beefy is guilty.

Post 544: Reenk is DEAD CENTER in the post count list. The perfect mafia hiding place if you're avoiding the bottom and CANNOT pass as a lurker. And by my count, he's quieter than usual.

Reenk had one post on page 7. Page 8:

614: "And my favorite kill lives on... Good job Mafia, good job. Vote: Sigurd"
Votes Sigurd... and he reminisces about previous mafia games and gives them a pat on the back. Scummy, scummy, scummy in my book. Ironic in retrospect if he were mafia = Bonus points when Reenk wins. He thinks just like I do in that regard.
So long and thanks for all the cluez.

632: "Hello Sigurd. I assure you I care not for the town's bandwagon. Of course I know too well that the charge of lurking is much too early. Also I don't believe it fits. Also, I don't believe you to be one who will use the same tactics. However, I am not the Mafia Sigurd. I may be crazy but I'm not careless with my life. Besides, the Godfather would obviously choose the better man."

LOL! Your slip is showing, Reenk. Defensive after being so quiet. I don't think so... you're yourself in this game. The same yourself as Prometheus, my mafia buddy. The "better man" is you... you won Fillet Royale. You won Prometheus. You're a dangerous character. Don't sell yourself short, because that Reenks of scum.

Only two posts page 8... one scummy vote, one scummy defense.


Nothing page 9. Hasn't spoken to me all game. Are you avoiding me, Reenk? You never have before. You talk more. You joke more. You think your votes through more. You try harder. You're not yourself. Bad performance from you as a townie, IMO.

Nearly everything you've done all game registers on the scumdar. Either it's wrong or you are.



TevashSzat

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

110: "QFT!!! Vote:shlin28 No agenda like everyone else, just wants a good time......"
I think your move here has a subtle agenda. Not a fan of my analysis, are we? Hasn't bothered you before, I don't think. But I am keeping an open mind. Let's continue.

127: Laughs at Reenk's gamble. Helped elect Shlin28.

Reenk Roink, Andres, Shlin, TevashSzat all moved to elect Shlin28. I suggest he could be mafia. Shlin28 needs to be removed from power.

158: Jokes about lynching Shlin28.

172: Spams us with a "no spam" post.

219: Votes Andres. Very interesting! "Also, aren't the writeups done by the mafiosos? I suppose someone should try to examine them for clues......I would but I don't really want to spend that much time overly analyzing something. Anyways, for what I read, the writeups seem well written with no blatant grammatical errors or anything like that"

Right. It's a bit soon to be analyzing the writeups. Perhaps you wrote them to mislead us, and then encouraged us to analyze them. Trying to keep an open mind... lets continue.

233: "All that will lead to is WIFOM. Person 1: You weren't mentioned so you must be scum
Person 2: But if I were scum, I wouldn't be so careless Person 1: But if you were scum, you would be leaving yourself the opportunity to say you weren't careless. And it can just go on and on.....
@Tincow, Your idea seems very promising. Does anyone here know who in the game speaks English as their first/primary language. I spose that may be useful later on"

Sounds like he's helping out, but he's planting ideas in our heads, subtly trying to destroy potential arguments BEFORE they come.

303: "Well......don't really have anything against Seamus or Ichigo atm. Ichigo seems to not be active at all atm, which is not characteristic of scum, but I don't see how Seamus is extremely scummy right now either so......I'm going to let you guys decide this......"

Sorry. I need more from you than that. Not wanting to vote for the top "suspects", both of whom are innocent in my opinion, so that you can't be blamed for their death, but you have no suspects of your own? Why? uninterested in the game, or mafia? which is it? We need neither.

Nothing personal of course. You're a good player... that's why I expect more. I also find the excessive "......." at the end to be a nervous habit, but that's not evidence I can use.

355: "Well, Perry Mason didn't seem to be related to the kill writeups which suggests that perhaps the mafia didn't write it. That means that either GH or the detective (or a secret role) may be trying to say something to us"

Speculative, but otherwise reveals nothing new. "Just staying active" post.

372: "Hmm....that'd be a good way for them to disguise their writing styles. I don't recollect the first writeup from any game that I've played in, but I don't really remember writeups that clearly.....Does anyone here remember the first writeup?"

Passively going along with what GSC said. Asks people a question that doesn't help. Couldn't he go read the first writeup himself? Generates no new suspects, and no controversy, no heat on him.

Post 390: Right in the middle of the post count list. How convenient to avoid being lynched for lurking, but to avoid detection.

399: "I don't find these writeup analysis to be particularly powerful evidence since they could be relatively easily forged by the mafiosos given the revelation that the second one was taken from another game. As such, the analysis so far, IMO, only leads to WIFOM"

Suggests analysis is futile, after half-hearted attempts at analysis. The futility, the lack of energy, the lack of controversy, the lack of suspects, the lack of will, the lack of decisiveness. All say scum to me, and Tevash is no slouch. He's slouching here.

Nothing page 6. Why post when you're not a suspect? Voted for Sasaki.

TevashSzat posted more in the Golden Rule game where he had a mafia-esque role. He posted slightly more in this game than Fillet Royale, but he's not excessively talkative. I think he's off his base behavior here.

Nothing page 7. Why post when you're not a suspect?

583: BLATANT BANDWAGON ON YLC. NOTHING ELSE PAGE 8.

Nothing page 9. Avoided talking to me the entire game. Almost everything he does shows up as scum behavior here.





Andres:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Post 55: Blatantly ran for Chief of Police and gained little support. Surely he would have gotten a little more support from his mafia buddies. He was also quick to run, which tells me he didn't have to contemplate a strategy for winning the game. He jumped right in.

Argued with TinCow playfully. TinCow was innocent. I believe Andres is too.

Post 178: Talks to me, accuses me of being scummy. He knows how I react when I think this is a scummy move. I think he just earned a Halo of Innocence.

189: Posts about Myrddraal's funny totally innocent death in another game. He's not concentrating totally on this game. That tells me he's relaxed.

209: Votes Sasaki out of tradition, normal for him.

213: Asks for a reason for Sasaki's vote. Normal behavior.

215: "It seems to me that you deliberately misspelled his name to provide you with a cheap excuse to vote him. Besides, it doesn't matter how many times he changes his username, he'll always be 'khaan."

So calm, and patiently interrogative. Normal for townie Andres.

POST 219: TevashSzat votes for Andres for "BREAKING TRADITION"

256: "And how does that make TinCow suspicious? It doesn't even make him a hypocrite. I for one am not going to bother looking at the grammar and spelling of kill write-ups. We have a godfather and two grunts, it may well be that there are native and non native speakers among the mafia, possibly even a native speaker from the US, a native speaker from the UK and a non native speaker. And then there's 'khaan who enthusiastically analysed kill write-ups in Kung Fu mafia while he probably wrote them himself."

Absolutely good townie behavior here.

260: "Are you threatening me? If you must, break the tie and vote me. Somebody has to go first"

I hear you, Andres. I hear you. I can feel your townie-ness... it gives you focus, makes you stronger.

266: "Well, you could be guilty"
Continues to interrogate Sasaki. He's cool under pressure and on the attack, not the defense.

284: Paying attention, he catches that YLC already voted Sasaki.

287: Still contributing to town's efforts.

295: YLC defends Andres.

319: "What amazes me is that you are ignoring that other preservation vote, the one made by Sasaki"

Questions Ares' hypocrisy.

322: Does not bandwagon Ichigo, goes with Seamus to keep the tally closer to being even... not a scum move.


Post 390: Seamus points out Andres' activity is townie-fresh and high on the list. 3rd only to me and Ares, consequently I think Ares is innocent too. Leaning innocent on Seamus.

438: Questions GSC on his odd behavior, as I did. Seems to me we are both in townie mode for him to notice that. Abstains, too.

442: Isn't afraid to correct me.

454: points out my slight hypocrisy against Shlin.

460: In full on "suspicious mode", he considers me a suspect now for overreacting, as he characterized it. I wasn't, but he is townie to say so.

461: Agrees there should be no lurker victories anymore.

463: He's paying better attention than I am. Reasonable post.

535: Playfully edits Jolt's post. You had me at

539: This is important:

"I would either go for random.org or a combination of "low profile/luker players", like seireikhaan (an excellent mafioso, usually flies under the radar until late midgame+ has very creative ideas) and boudica/glyphz (I was very impressed by those two in Ephesus; they belong into the "survivor" category as they don't seem to draw suspicion easily)."

Seireikhaan wasn't a suspect here yet, and that's good. He's offering suspects for good reasons.

Next, he suggests Boudica. He's wrong, but she gets offed by mafia. I highly doubt he would suggest her for the lynch and then do her in himself. Andres is also not affiliated with glyphz. Why suggest a suspect who is your mafia partner when he has no heat on him?

Interesting note:
550: QJC suspects Reenk Roink. I disagree with his other choices, but, dang. Good minds think alike.

560: His vote on Sigurd makes sense, even if I think it's wrong. Sasaki and Andres are blatantly bandwagoning Sigurd together... too blatant for me to think it's scummy. Odd reasoning? No.

Subtle bandwagons without reason are scummy. Blatant with reasons aren't usually.

562: Paying attention and doing research, he suggests that Lord Winter may not have been mafia. Odd play for a mafia to make.

565: Joke post. Good humor and good contribution. Not nervous.

618: Notes YLC isn't making sense, as a townie should. But he doesn't suddenly open fire and vote him.

624: Asks YLC to make a case to him, in private if necessary. Not mafia behavior to me.

Conclusion: Andres does not show up on the SkyNet analysis at all, except as a proven townie. Either it's correct or he's really mastered fooling the system.



Taka

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Didn't vote for CoP

217: Votes Ichigo out of tradition. Bloody hands.
Nothing else page 3, 4, 5
Didn't vote Day two.

428: "Vote: Abstain. just before everyone says im being a scummy lurker or something, i just want to say that i've been fairly busy in RL, and also i find theres too much info atm, so if i survive into the later stages i WILL contribute more"

I don't think you should survive. Best to be WOG'ed if you can't contribute. Or let Myrddraal take over. However, I'm not sure you're scum. You know too much about my system to choose to lurk this bad in a game with me in it... you'd basically be committing suicide.

Nothing else page 6. Nothing page 7

586: Suddenly springs to life after being voted by Beefy.

595: "only mafia use the term wifom to confuse people. the common townie (like myself) should not be using the term as it is bad practice. are you mafia?"

I am not sure I follow you.

599: "the question i asked was not a question to be answered - it is a question to remind yourself of who you are. if you are indeed a townie then i would suggest that you stop this wifom thing because atm it makes you horribly scummy in terms of behaviour. i personally do not take in wifom as its just a on-going loop of gibberish. and yes, i have no proof that i am townie, neither has any of the other players playing. but at least i dont act scummy to try to confuse the already confused town"

There's nothing inherently scummy about this post.

612: Votes Sigurd. This is perhaps the scummiest thing you've done, but townies make mistakes. Just stop lurking.

Nothing else page 8 or 9.

Conclusion: He could be telling the truth, but he's a low-priority target for lurking so much.


Glyphz

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Glyphz elected TinCow. Didn't have a bandwagon that followed.

122: Tally.
228: Vote Ares (random vote, person in front of him)
229: Vote Chaotix (same reason, and truly seemed to not care who he voted for. Random vote.
251. Joke post.
318. Vote: Seamus. Seamus is still alive and Ichigo was far in the lead. Looked like glyphz was trying to get us two suspects to choose from.

Nothing page 5

434 Tally.
Didn't vote day 3.

Nothing page 7

Chaotix voted for Glyphz, no heat on either one, no bandwagon.

610: Votes Sigurd to break the tie. Bold move, if mafia.

Analysis: Typical non-talkative Glyphz, but there were subtle indications that he has town's interests at heart. He's not controlling the game, he truly voted random, and he tried to give an alternative to the opening Ichigo bandwagon. He made a bolder move later to choose Sigurd (capper vote).




Jolt

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Elected Glyphz for CoP. Seems to be an outsider, willing to be independent.

63: Gives RL excuse for not playing actively.
143. Joke post
Nothing page 3
274: Abstain
276: Offers "cool" execution method. Seems relaxed and having fun. Unmanipulative.
327: Random votes Ichigo.
LittleGrizzly votes for Jolt.

466: Jolt OMGUS votes LG

474: Still seems cool. Explanation for OMGUS seems ok. Almost too reactionary... very suspect behavior for no reason.

LG and Jolt FOS each other page 7
Not under pressure, they attack one another and in the process make each other suspect. Absurd mafia behavior or innocent townie bad behavior.

535: Adds to the discussion in a silly way.

LittleGrizzly puts Halo of innocence on me post 553

LG votes Jolt again.

634:
"Decent? Pah-leeze. Basing your vote on my already proven non-activity on weekend is hardly any evidence at all. As ATPG well said, I have nothing whatsoever that sheds any suspicion on me (Besides my reaction to stupid motives for lynching me), reading what TinCow well said, the plagarization of the kills from past games is probably the works of someone who has played those games (I don't have the mood or the time to go read past Mafia games, and apparently you have played the games in question, which adds even more heat on your side), and your words "to provide an alternative", (especially with the baseless reasons to have given for my lynch) for the lynch vote makes me suspect that you are indeed one of the henchmen of the Godfather. I'd wish if there is an investigator role, that he investigate LG. Vote: LittleGrizzly

Although, it'd be damn funny if me and Grizzly were mafia. xD"

In my mind, Jolt and LG's feud has basically cleared both of them. But just this once. Mafia cannot trick me in future games by doing this. They have clean hands and are not manipulating town, and they aren't acting like any mafia I've seen.




Rythmic

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

119: Elect: Reenk Roink
192: suggestion for lynch method
197: suggestion for lynch method
252: Random votes Ignoramus, who turns out to be a lurker, possible scum.
317: Changes vote to Ichigo. Basically puts a "capper" vote on Ichigo... a bit too risky for mafia to try this early for no reason.
Nothing page 5

436: Abstains, excuse post.


Page 7: Top suspect for many players, but he doesn't show up to defend himself. Townie.

613: Rythmic/Psychonaut shows up after basically being absent. Nothing inherently scummy about his post.

615: Votes Beefy for bandwagoning YLC.
625: Changes to Taka due to mixing up Beefy and Taka. Clearly he doesn't care about lynching a certain person. Smells townie to me.

629: "One word Seamus, hangover. Also, you may want to bold your vote."

He has been known to lurk as mafia, to victory in Family Guy.

631: Blatantly avoids the WOG... fine I guess.

"Three separate hangovers to be precise. But yes, your correct I was simply voting to avoid a WoG. Because I'd at least be a little useful later on, or at least I hope I am."

A bit too obvious, in my judgment... why make yourself look so scummy on purpose?

642: Points out his low post count compared to mine. At least he's talking to me. Doesn't seem hostile to my actions as inquisitor.

Why highlight your scummy behavior if you're scum/lurker/excuse poster? Doesn't make sense. This is a new strategy if he's mafia.

Conclusion: Probably townie, but he needs to do more. He's fooled me before, though.


Chaotix27:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Elects CountArach, proven townie.
169: Calm, offtopic post.
227: Votes Andres with a reason. Andres is still alive and still a suspect, so no bloody hands here.
231: Dismisses the writeups as being probably lies.
314: Puts temporary "capper" vote on Ichigo. Decisive, risk taking.
Interesting analysis post 363.

Nothing page 6

492: Suspects Seireikhaan, who is dead. Suspects me but doesn't seem hostile to me. Suspects Reenk. Now there's a good suspect. Does not suspect GSC.

579, in spite of obvious targets YLC and Sigurd, votes glyphz for lurking. Bravo.

600. Distressed by YLC's behavior, votes him.

605. Good pro-town reasoning.

Analysis: SkyNet Approved.



Quintus.JC

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Elects Me for CoP!!!
138: Votes Shlin instead after I drop out. Fair enough.
162: Lynch method suggestion
190: same
193: same
203: same, good humor. Talks to me.
210: Abstains, good humor.
278: Votes GSC, currently alive, no heat on either one.
297: Approves of self-preservation in first round vote.
304: Votes Seamus, presently still alive. Decisive vote, but no blood.
382: paying attention, but offtopic.
Nothing page 6

550: Don't agree with all your choices, but you think Reenk is scummy. You also picked boudica, who died. I doubt you'd announce your desire to have boudica lynched, then kill her.

640: Votes YLC, (consistent)
651: Not afraid to talk to me.
653: same.

Analysis: paying attention, good humor, not controlling, not nervous, offering suspects who are suspect and still alive, clean hands. Townie.




White Eyes

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Elect: Reenk.
163: Lynch method suggestion
248: Abstain
315: Votes Ichigo for lurking.
367: Looking for clues in writeup, asks about nude unicyclist.
375: GOOD ANALYSIS

423: Votes Lord Winter.
425: responds to LW who protested being voted. Keeps vote on him.
427: Excellent reasoning.
456: Agreed.
464: not eager to bandwagon, talks to me.

529: Rightfully critical of me after Chicago, not dismissing me as a suspect.
540: AWESOME: Thinks Reenk is suspect.

603: Notes writeup has familiar kill (I think)

That's all. I am sure White_eyes is townie.





Seamus

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Elects Reenk, gives Boudica as second choice.
125: Wants Reenk all game. I understand the sentiment.
137: Good humor.
174: Good humor.
221: Seems unaware that GH isn't doing any edits in the writeups. Townie tell.
250: Tally
254: Boudica votes seamus.
275: Reasonable post.
294: Starts suspecting YLC, of course.
318: Glyphz votes seamus.
359: Contributing to the discussion in a way I agree with. Abstains
360: Seems to be thinking creatively... looking for clues.
374: Joke post
386: Reenk Roink votes Seamus.


Post 390: Sorry, but he's got to be a townie. Otherwise he's fooled me completely. Votes beefy.

This post like, completely clears him in my opinion. Person he voted for has no heat, still alive, looking for a defense from Beefy, seems to be analysing everyone!

Nothing page 6

490: Joke post.
507: Seems ok to talk to me.
527: Seems to be trying to clear me as a suspect. Holy TinCow.
544: Specifically analyses me instead of just dismissing me as scummy. I say Seamus is town.
549: Thoughtful.
574: Votes Sigurd.
628: Votes Rythmic/Lurker
633. Very witty joke.
645. Talks to me.

Analysis: Definitley townie. Totally fooled me if not. Double stamp it.

Okay, and that's all I got through so far with SkyNet. Bottom line, most of you have done things which have convinced me of your innocence, and two of you have completely convinced me you're guilty, those being Reenk Roink and TevashSzat. I freely admit I could be wrong, but out of all these players, why are only you jumping off the page at me as being totally scum?

__________________________

Don't take my word for it, town. Just go back and follow all of Reenk's actions, and all of TevashSzat's actions. Then draw your own conclusions. Sorry about all the words. Lynch me as you will. I regret that I have but one slice to give for my country.

I usually don't want to do a SkyNet analysis so soon because of potentially false results, so I will update as the game goes on. You don't have to follow my advice, just please consider it. And please look at Reenk and Tevash. I wouldn't totally trust Shlin28 unless he's been investigated.

The end.

Quick version- My suggestion:

This round: Lynch Reenk Roink, investigate Ignoramus, perhaps, or Shlin28.
Next round: Lynch TevashSzat. pending investigation on other suspects and other developments.

There. Now you don't have to read my long winded analysis or even look at it. And you can ignore me completely too. Free will is a wonderful thing. If you prefer, you can private message me questions or we can do a quicktopic where I can blab all I want and everyone can see it and respond to it or ignore it completely. I'm seriously trying to do my job without bugging you. Let's work together to narrow the suspect list.

[Askthepizzaguy]

*totally drained and pale now*

I will be here for a couple more hours. I'd prefer not to clutter this thread anymore than I already have. Please send me a private message if you want to discuss my work or hear a response, and of course feel free to comment here.

I'll answer any question and whatnot. My fingers hurt.

[LittleGrizzly]

My 'attack' on Jolt seems to have brought a little suspicion or just criticism for bad townie behaviour, if you really believe im being counter productive to the town with my focus on Jolt i am willing to step back from it, part of the reason... as i said was a lack of viable suspects... with ATPG work have a bit more to go on now... i have to leave uni soon so ill probably comment further when i get home...

edit: good work ATPG!! assuming your not scum theres some good anylisis there... well done!

[TinCow]

Uh, pardon, but how is this 'SkyNet' different from any general post analysis? This just looks like you've gone through each person's posts and made a personal judgment based on their content. While that's perfectly fine to do (and admirable work), I'm not seeing how it is stronger evidence than anyone else's own post analysis. IIRC, you used this system in the Chicago game, and were totally wrong.

Essentially, please explain what makes 'SkyNet' superior to any general post analysis.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Seriously though, LittleGrizzly, you and Jolt have been going after one another and as a result, you haven't messed with the tally and have clean or fairly clean hands. You haven't been leading us on, and there are other reasons I don't suspect you and Jolt based on your behavior that I put under the category of "Jolt".

The analysis is by no means foolproof, but it's the best I can do, and I tried to organize that mess, I really tried.

[Beefy187]

Uh, pardon, but how is this 'SkyNet' different from any general post analysis? This just looks like you've gone through each person's posts and made a personal judgment based on their content. While that's perfectly fine to do (and admirable work), I'm not seeing how it is stronger evidence than anyone else's own post analysis. IIRC, you used this system in the Chicago game, and were totally wrong.

Essentially, please explain what makes 'SkyNet' superior to any general post analysis.

Time invested in Skynet is far greater then most of our analysis

[Askthepizzaguy]

Uh, pardon, but how is this 'SkyNet' different from any general post analysis? This just looks like you've gone through each person's posts and made a personal judgment based on their content. While that's perfectly fine to do (and admirable work), I'm not seeing how it is stronger evidence than anyone else's own post analysis. IIRC, you used this system in the Chicago game, and were totally wrong.

Essentially, please explain what makes 'SkyNet' superior to any general post analysis.

Yes, of course.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Ok well for several months I had been constructing a mafia behavioral database. I followed like 15 games which had been completed, seeing who was mafia at the end then followed their behavior through the thread, and categorized their behavior as certain types, and kept track of how often such behaviors occurred. Some behaviors were even for mafia or town. Others jumped off the scale as mafia.

Then I looked at different people, and found that certain patterns remained no matter if the mafia are veteran or newbie, and no matter their preferred mafia style. It stands to reason, as mafia have a psychologically different game motive and it's reflected by their actions. I boiled down all the massive amounts of data into a secret file which contains known scumtells. 100% of all mafia do these behaviors. Other than lurkers, the system has been fairly accurate.

The big weakness is that townies do give off scumtells, and I needed to tweak that.

Consequently, I know now what known Townie behaviors are too to a large degree.

As for the stuff I posted, I did not reveal the actual content of SkyNet, I just commented on what I thought was scummy or not.

The system becomes less effective if I reveal all the known parameters. The stuff I reveal is common sense, but there's more I'm just not willing to share with the general public. I did do a lot of work on it.

It's a work in progress. I'm sorry I registered on your scumdar, by the way.

[TinCow]

Ok, I just wanted to make sure it was just a post analysis. The way ATPG was talking about it a while back made it seem like it was Holmes 2.0.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Tincow

Yeah it can get confusing. I don't reveal the 50+ parameters I use to measure scumness. And when I used it on you and Andres in Chicago I had a vendetta against you based on instinct. I didn't use it on you objectively, and noted that in my apology/concession speech. I misused it.

As I am doing the SkyNet analysis, which is going through each post one at a time and cataloging it for the behavioral totals, I comment on each behavior and make a note of good/bad/conflicting/odd/suspicious behavior.

Then I compare my personal judgment with what the system reveals. when they both match heavily, I have a strong case.


______


The tool isn't foolproof, and neither is my judgment. It just has a deeper memory than our conscious minds because of so much data I've collected, and I have psychological profiles on certain people and mafia behavior in general versus town. It does work more than half of the time.

I fear I am monopolizing discussion again. I wanted to prompt you all to look at my top suspects. Don't follow me blindly, use your own judgment. I won't be responsible for another Chicago.

[ULC]

Also, for further clarification, I performed my mad posting through the previous day for SkyNet to analyze behavior more effectively - the more people post, the more effective the system becomes. Since what I did was intended to spark controversy, it worked well enough to not only line everyone up on two people to analyze better, it also intensified the effectiveness - scummy behavior while someone is behaving as I was is not necessary, and is a clear tell.

I am sorry for abusing/manipulating the town into doing what I wanted you to do - you all performed admirably, but that does not justify me using you in an almost "psychological experiment" way. I am terribly sorry, and if the town wishes, I will refrain from playing the rest of the game, and any other game as well.

[Askthepizzaguy]

And now town is absolutely sure we are both scumbags. Brilliant!

I just want to say, I didn't prompt him to do this. He messaged me and told me his plan like yesterday. I was wondering why he was acting strangely. He did this of his own accord, without my consent or directions.

[naut]

Holy carpel tunnel syndrome. We've got some double, double toil and trouble. Underhand mischief all around. Nice analysis, interesting suspects.

[Askthepizzaguy]

As promised I remained for a little while to answer questions. I'll be back tonight or... soon. Don't know.

I am usually not at home right after I leave for two days. I felt this one was relevant enough to warrant a trip. I'm also exhausted because I haven't slept since I came here and began posting/generally being verbose and annoying yesterday.

Good night.

[Jolt]

LG willingly withdrawing his vote on me, due to town pressure plus the fact that everyone has seen that I'm town seems wierd. I wish someone investigate him. I find his behaviour increasingly strange and counter-productive.

[White_eyes:D]

You came to....about 90% of the same conclusions I came to...
Really...wow......I can't say your mafia now....unless you really want to get carpel tunnel syndrome...

Edit:ATPG, I bow before your analysis..... or at least the 2 hours you must have spent on typing it....

[TinCow]

As I have been proven innocent, I will do the town a favor by actually reading the GREAT WALL OF TEXT and providing an opinion on it. The below comments are c&p, because there's no way I'm going to try and trim it out properly from a quote box.

From your 'preamble':

I seriously must have proven myself to you by now. I'm not quite deliberately annoying, but I intentionally played strangely earlier to get suspicion on myself to the point where you could have easily lynched me without resistance.

No and no. I don't see how you've proven yourself in any way. High activity levels don't mean you're innocent, nor do massive analysis posts. If you were mafia, your WALL OF TEXT is a great way to bludgeon people until they do what you want, because most people won't read it and you know it. It's easy to hide logical fallacies and errors when you post so much text that no one can even remember what you wrote.

You also have not been playing strange. You post an absurd amount, both in frequency and in quantity, in every single game I've been in with you. You also act like you are the ultimate town protector in the games I've played with you. This is the exact same thing you're doing here. So, no, you have not been acting strangely.

From your SkyNet analysis of TevashSzat:

Reenk Roink, Andres, Shlin, TevashSzat all moved to elect Shlin28. I suggest he could be mafia. Shlin28 needs to be removed from power.

Again, no. The CoP has no power that is important to the mafia. If shlin is mafia, his position as CoP is entirely irrelevant to the game. He should be analyzed and voted on just like everyone else, but does not deserve special treatment due to his position as CoP.

My assessment of the general summary:

Despite any criticism above, ATPG has made a very good analysis of in-game behavior. There is a lot of common sense in what he finds innocent and what he finds scummy. I'm personally not convinced at all on Ignoramus, who I personally find to be generally lazy at times and I think that's what's going on here. However, his points on Reenk Roink and TevashSzat are well-analyzed, well-argued, and consistent. TevashSzat also fits my mental profile for the person who wrote the N1 kill write-up and has since switched to plagiarism to cover their writing style.

So, my advice to the town is to follow ATPG's lead for a little while. Lynch Reenk Roink and TevashSzat, probably in that order (as TevashSzat would likely be the grunt, not the Godfather, and thus he would be the lesser target). If the game is not over after both of those two are lynched, then lynch ATPG.