The Godfather, Part 3 [Concluded]

[Thermal]

going on 80 posts a page

Wow... ATPG would be jealous...

How? don't you just change it in your settings?

[LittleGrizzly]

ohhh....

[Reenk Roink]

Andres, let's examine your post here for a bit because it's calling for reasons while not doing much in the way of giving what it is calling for:



You say intuition is not a good reason for your lynch. I say otherwise. It all goes on Reenk's reasons for voting list:

1) Undeniable or very strong proof due to the axioms of the game (eg: A detective investigation where the detective is not misled or given faint clues)
2) Intuition
3) Retaliation
4) A "good" case (good being defined as something that appeals to me for example, a detective reveal that only suggests one is Mafia)

If you don't agree with my standards... too bad I guess, everyone can vote how they want to...



On your examination of my case for Tevash, you do only two things:

1) make objections that I had already made...
2) go ahead and tow the popular line that he is scum using buzzwords with no meaning like "smells of scumminess"

I am making a revisionist (not really as I never believed Tevash was guilty in the first place) case as to Tevash's position because I feel that the discussion by the more analytical members of our group has stagnated on the same assumptions. Perhaps by removing certain assumptions (which I'm not convinced of by the way) a better analysis can take place leading us to better candidates. It certainly will make the game more fresh and thus more fun (my main goal).



On my refutation of the link between me and Tevash, you basically say it is "unconvincing" but don't really supoort that at all. OK, I don't mind when people just say "not buying it" but you yourself want reasons behind every post and vote so I would guess you should give reasons (unless you want reasons but don't want to give them, which I guess is fine too).

You then make the point that I was "off the hook" and then bring it up again. Of course I did and I did this for two reasons:

1) again it is a prime assumption to challenge to hopefully get the town going in another way
2) after evaluating the situation, I have come to see that not only am I immune to Mafia kills, most of the town is as of this point reluctant to vote for me and so I will take full advantage of my great position to put my ideas in the air and exert my influence



Lastly you come back and again ask for a reason as to why there is a vote for you.

I say the same thing as I did last time: intuition.

I just get the feeling you are guilty, it is a great reason in my epistemic worldview to put on a vote and you are certainly not cleared at all by number 1 on the reason list which would override the intuition.

If you don't think this is a good reason, fine. I don't think anybody throughout this game had a good reason to vote for me, but could I stop them? No (aside from getting them lynched and trying to manipulate the Mafia into killing them for me).

[Gaius Scribonius Curio]

K, you want more analysis, then here it comes.... NB: Info comes from GH's summary thread and my own impressions throughout the game. I've no time to go back and reread the entire thread, so any inaccuracies are my fault and feel free to correct me.

Aries: Aries has avoided the spotlight for much of the game, posting more often than some people (me and Taka in particular) but not up there with ATPG, for example. Elected Shlin, along with most of the town on a fun and carefree day one. Then for most of the early game voted for what I like to call 'big-name' players. Sasaki and Sigurd. Then came a lull period, with a couple of no votes, due to an absence I believe, punctuated with a vote for YLC, with the intention of assisting his suicide. The last couple of rounds he has targeted known lurkers, Taka and Glyphz.

Looking at him suspiciously, most of his votes have been quite shrewd. Most have not been for a top candidate, allowing him to glide by beneath the notice of those targetting bandwagoners. The assistance for YLC's suicide, also while possibly altruistic, could certainly have been an easy way to bundle off a known townie (were he mafia) thus wasting a lynch for the town. It would also be interesting to note, that he has not been in any real danger as far as lynching is concerned. Luck, or skill?

Personally Aries is not one of my main suspects, but certainly, looked at from an angle of complete scepticism, he would seem to be far from cleared.

Andres:Andres has, as a number of people have brought up, ghosted through the game without being pressured much at all. I believe ATPG tried, and possibly Tincow as well, but for the most part he has not been in any real danger.

Along with most people, he elected Shlin day one. From there his next three votes were for fellow 'big-names' Sasaki, Sigurd and Seamus. On two occaisions this put the recipient in some danger of lynching. From there his next three votes were for high-profile players who all ended in being lynched; Sigurd, ATPG (twice), and Tevash. After this came the initial case against Shlin which was dropped in favour of a now consistent crusade against yours truly.

Analysing this pattern with a sceptical mindset, it could be argued that Andres has pursued a good voting strategy for a mafioso of his calibre. Early game he voted for big-name players. This would remove them from voting for him later in the game when they may guess his intentions. In addition their lynching would render them untrustworthy by the town. I believe that it was not his intention to get them lynched, incidently, but it would have been an added bonus while the game was young and he would not be pulled up for it. Moving into the middle game, he switched to high-profile players who mostly ended in being lynched. Each of these had a case against them which convinced a number of players to vote for them anyway, one more into the bargain does not make too much difference. A classic mafia ploy, to lynch men who are already dead. Plus due to his experiance Andres would be able to stand and claim, but its WIFOM, why would I do something so obvious. Moving on, he then was part of the original case against Shlin, which resulted (ultimately) in his downfall, before alighting on me as a suitable candidate. Perhaps he realised that he may have made a error with his earlier behaviour (should anyone deign to notice it) or perhaps he just wanted the spotlight shifted from other high-profile targets. I'm not sure, but all I can say is that I'm innocent, I've provided a rebuttal for him which has been conveniently ignored.

I think Andres is probably the best target for this round and shall vote accordingly.

Curio: Innocent, but I'll provide a quick case-study anyway for conveniences sake.

Elected Count Arach.

Voted:Quintus (joke vote)/no vote, White eyes, Sigurd (Lynched), Quintus/Abstain, Quintus, Reenk Roink, Shlin (Lynched), Taka.

Have been pressured twice, once by ATPG in the early game, and provided a decent rebuttal. Now am being held to dry by Andres, my main suspect, who has conveniently ignored my reply to his accusations.

Once more, I am innocent, and would people who accuse me at least acknowledge my replys.

Quintus:Quintus is another who has not been pressured all game long, despite my attempts mid-game. Elected Shlin early, placed a cordial joke vote on myself. Then things get interesting if looked at with extreme doubt...

Quintus has managed to go throught the entire game without voting for the eventual lynchee. Could he be avoiding the spotlight? My earlier criticism of non-analysis does not hold now, but a, verging on dangerous, over-reliance on ATPG, seems to be evident in this game. As I said earlier, having played with Quintus before I know he is capable of some quite brilliant analysis of his own, and, particularly early on in the game it certainly seemed like he was trying to slip without notice (and succeeded, fair play to you sir ). In particular I would draw attention to the fact that all of his actual votes in the later game (not counting abstains...) have been for someone who was in danger, but failed to be lynched.

I realise that this is a fairly weak case, and personally I don't think he is that much of cause for worry at this stage. Other candidates are much more likely.

Taka:Ladies and gentlemen if you glance to the left you may, or more likely may not, catch a glimpse of the famed Lurkerus Takaris. Abstain and no votes litter his voting pattern and five times out of six when he has voted his choice has been lynched. The only occasion during the game that he has been in danger of being lynched, although the odd person has been voting for him throughout, was the last round where he shamelessly voted for Glyphz, to escape a lynch.

Plenty of questions to answer in my opinion.

Reenk Roink:Reenk Roink has been fairly consistent with his voting, abstaining when he hasn't had a clear suspect, but gunning for any person he feels is a suspect, successfully on three occasions. I don't hold it against him that he wants people who make his life difficult dead, particularly when said opponents have question marks hanging over them. Now CoP, and able to vote. As CoP was bestowed on him he is not exonerated as has been demonstrated before. Certainly has a strongly individual style, which has got him into trouble on a couple of occasions, but I don't think he is guilty at this stage.

Beefy:Beefy's voting pattern is covered with abstains, almost as if he is afraid of commitment. Only when there is a clear case against someone has there been a reaction from him. That said he has certainly contributed to discussion throughout the game, and has had something to say more often than not.

The only thing I find slightly concerning is the clear link to Reenk, as the two have made no secret of their cooperation throut the game. That said I believe Beefy is not guilty.

White Eyes:Another of the Abstain brigade who seem to float through unnoticed. Hasn't done much worthy of attention, but did contribute to the death of Lord Winter and was quick to jump on the 'Kill Seamus' campaign initiated by 'Khann. Targetted Glyphz on Day 8 but inexplicably didn't vote for him yesterday. Using my limited intuition I'm going to say he is an unlikely mafioso.

Finished!!! For reasons given above will Vote: Andres.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I think it's Curio or Reenk.

@ GeneralHankerchief:

Which of the living players is closest to a WoG at the moment and how many more rounds of inactivity will it take before that player will be WoG'ed?

I haven't checked the spreadsheet for specifics. I'll get back to you. Two missed votes starting this phase will result in an auto-WoG, however.

[pevergreen]

Back so soon, I am.

Its Beefy or someone thats good friends with him. Ares etc

Its definately someone who enjoys going on about beefy stuff. I don't think the write ups are done by Beefy, I know his writing style and how flawed it is (it is his second language so)

I really would have to say Ares. Or maybe Reenk, just for the hell of it.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Ugh.

Nobody is cleared, eerybody suspect for some reason, and it seems likely that no detective is playing -- if one ever was.

"Hard" Data:

The killings (save for the uni-slaying of Sasaki) decreased from 2 to 1 following the lynching of Lord Winter. If all 3 mafiosi yet survive, there will be two dead following this lynch and the game will have ended. Simple probability suggests, however, that at least one mafioso has died --even if it was NOT Winter as many suspect.

Tevash' reveal. A reveal while under lynch threat is always a bit desperate. His failure to follow up on that reveal has suggested, for most, that his status was emphaticaly NOT that of a detective...at least for the town. While it is possible that Tev was a townie making a desperate play -- it has been done before -- it seems likely that a power-role player died in that lynching.

Sasaki's killing was dramatically different in tone/style from the others and involved one of the recurrent "minor players" introduced into the write-ups by our estimable host. This means that we cannot be certain of Sasaki's role in the game.

The Murderees: Aside from Sasaki, all of those murdered appear to have been offed by the mafia. We can be somewhat confident that none of these others were killed by vigilantes. Therefore, we can cross the departed off the list of suspects -- and we must find 3 from the remaining list.


Remember that, aside from the above, there is no HARD data regarding guilt or innocence. It is important to force participation from ALL players and hope that a slip results.

It cannot be my place to do this. I was lynched and cannot therefore be completely trusted. One of our murder victims, or one of our living, needs to take up the gauntlet and make others talk.

[Chaotix]

My eyes are burning from the walls of text.

I skimmed over most of it. What I see from the write-up is that the mafia is trying to frame Ares. The many, many grammatical errors, misspellings, run-on sentences, etc, are, without any offense to Ares, completely characteristic of his posting style.

Here is what I can infer from this now:

If Ares was mafia, then it explains why he began copying write-ups during the beginning of the game. Later, however, he would have had to spend a long time on write-ups correcting grammatical mistakes. Now, because it makes it look like a framing, then, he decides to do a write-up typical Ares style.

The alternative is that it really is just a stupid mafia who thinks Ares can be found guilty on the basis of a mafia write-up.

It's all WIFOM anyway, but that's my opinion on it.

[Beefy187]

In case for those who went to see who is on and saw my name, and preparing a case against as I speak as I'm online even though I said I won't be..

I was actually expecting this game to finish while I was gone, but apparently the force is strong in the God Father

I'm back in my house. My exams over. Now I'll get right back into it.

To be fair, this is not my first time having a long run in mafia. I remember a couple where I was left till final few and led the town into ultimate doom by lynching the wrong man.

My usual style is going by ATPG or other strong analyzer and just go after those with the most solid case as I haven't got the ability to make my case against someone logically, and risking it could get my self lynched.

Losing Teddy Snatcher made me into a complete coward, as I'm now more cautious blindly following the analyzers. Thus why all the abstains.

To respond to Pevers accusation, I think I can call all the survivors my friends, except Andres as his the mod and he haven't got enough time for "deeper" friendship.

Now for the fun part... Accusing peoples..

I have to protest against Andres bandwagon. "His not scummy lynch him!" is just silly. If we keep going for likely innocents and leaving those scummy ones, we'll end up with another Chicago where lurking boudica won.

I will pressure vote taka for now, as his obviously lurking again.. But who ever has the most votes beside Andres will get my vote as I think Andres is almost definitely innocent

[Andres]

I think I can call all the survivors my friends, except Andres

I stopped reading after that.

[Beefy187]

I stopped reading after that.

Aww you know I was joking right??

EDIT: Sorry, I thought I added you to my friends long ago.. You are now officially my friend

Ill take that back, everyone who is left is my friends.

[Andres]

[pevergreen]

Girly fights aside. Im not saying friends as in friend list I'm saying those that make beefy jokes.

Ares and Shlin are the main two. Its one of the people like that. Your fans seem to come out of small and mini games, which I don't play.

[Beefy187]

If you say so. I can't say anything about the two you mentioned except Ares scares me a little for none scuminess but his probably innocent. Andres I think is also innocent.

Other then those two I think everyone have a equal chance

Vote: taka

Forgot to vote for him in the last one

[Andres]

Ok, I'll respond to Curio's rebuttal

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

@ Beefy: Apparently my last post was 'scummy'.

Andres: Everything you have said in response to ATPG's questions with regards to your accusations against is true. It was neutral, it was complimentary to others, and I voted when the post itself seemed to come to very little actual conclusion. To these particular points I shall respond.

Neutrality: Since when have I not been neutral. I'm not the sort of person that bandwagons shamelessly, I don't tend to hold grudges, I certainly don't tend to aggressively go after people (except in exceptional circumstances, as discussed below). I prefer to give everything that I am considering at the time a thought or explanation, and if I am undecided then I shall say quite openly, that I'm undecided. I'm also just the sort of obnoxious person that thinks they are always right and doesn't like being contradicted, as such I attempt to think of any major challenges to my thoughts that may arise, and post them too, so noone can go, 'I told you so...'

Being neutral and not taking a stance is often seen as mafia behaviour. Mafia tends to avoid stepping on other players' toes; attacking too hard or aggressive doesn't make you popular, so mafia try to avoid that. They are concerned about how other players feel about them.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Compliments/ Flattery: As my friends say I want to be loved. A major character fault in these sort of games I know. Mafia VIII I went after disco quite hard (I was mafia), and he rebuked me quite harshly. I immediately sent him a PM apologising for my harsh words, but asking for a more concilatory defence (he also posted as such in the thread if I recall correctly). In fact I dislike anybody acting aggressively towards me, as such I tend to be very concilatory, and if I think that somebody deserves congratulations, or a defence then I shall oblige. In fact the only time that I've acted quite aggressively were in Mafia VIII (mafiosi) and the latter stages of Midgard II (where you are quite correct LG

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I was a god, and part of a townie network that had been infiltrated, I knew this and was trying desperately to find out how everything had collapsed so quickly, leading to me attempting to destroy the network from the inside, it didn't work well....

).

Flattery is sometimes a mafia tell. A lot of people will hesitate to vote somebody who just told them they made a great post/did an amazing analysis/are great players.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Voting: Possibly your best point. Yes based on my points and the neutral tone the most likely option would have been an abstain. However at the time, my line of thought was that a vote for someone would be better than no vote. The most persuausive argument that had been made that day was by Tincow against Shlin, and nobody has given any thought to my suspicions of Quintus (ergo to vote for him again would be a wasted vote...).

If you are convinced Quintus is scum and nobody seems to think likewise, then you should go after him and try to convince people to vote Quintus. The fact that you don't even try to get your suspect lynched, can be a mafia tell too. The mafia don't care as much about who gets lynched, as long as it isn't them. You shouldn't just "waste your vote" on your suspect, as a townie you should try to convince others to vote him and explain your reasons why he is a suspect for you. Instead of doing so, you chose to "go with the flow". That's typical mafia behaviour -> Mafia line of thinking = "ok, nobody looks at me, no need to put more effort in my accusation of player X, they follow the lead of player Y who wants to lynch Z, and I'm not even on the suspect list of Y, so it's fine, I'm under the radar, I'll just go with the flow".

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The only other thing people seem to hold against me is my lurking. Since lurking is reading and observing whilst saying nothing, I say to you look at the times I've been online, and how often I have spent observing. I've been working almost every day and have sporting commitments, but I haven't not missed a vote and have at least acknowledged my presence when I haven't posted a thought out opinion. I can see where this in itself is an issue, but rest assured that next week when I'm back at uni, and not working so much my activity level will jump. Be back tomorrow...

Lurking is also a sign.


It's not exact science, Curio, but the combination of these factors make you the best candidate for a lynching in my opinion.

You admit that you behave neutral and flatter others. Yes, that can be just you, but it are also signs of mafia behaviour.

Then you admit you didn't bother to try to get Quintus lynched but instead went with the flow. That could be laziness or lack of interest, but it can also be a mafia line of thought ("I'm not under suspicion, they are going to lynch an innocent, ok, I'll stay calm then").

Lurking is not unusual for you, so that alone isn't enough to warrant a vote. But when adding all elements up, you are the best candidate.

[GeneralHankerchief]

My inbox is currently one away from capacity and I don't have time to clear it before I leave for class today. I don't think anybody needs to PM me with anything, but if you do, please wait a couple of hours (if you can). Thanks.

[White_eyes:D]

I don't think its Andres.....last time I lynched him in the end game=lurker victory......Vote:taka.....because I am getting a feeling he is pulling the strings again...

[GeneralHankerchief]

Okay, inbox (somewhat) dealt with.

[Quintus.JC]

Indecisiveness at this stage really can have a detrimental effect, but that's precisely what I'm suffering from right now...

From what I've red I will Vote: Curio, who is only marginally more suspcious than the rest. But you have manipulated me before, and despite your excellent anaylsis, it seems forced and have come at such a late stage of the game.

Reenk is a really tough nut to crack, I can't read him completely. I can never know which side he is on in any of the games...

Tevash looked really scummy - he claimed to be detective and didn't back it up with a PM, and after being lynched he never came back to give town a beating. What that meant was Tevash was certainly no detective, he almost certainly had a role, and that role is not likely to be pro-town.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Vote Count:

Andres: 2 (Reenk, Curio)
Curio: 2 (Andres, Quintus)
taka: 2 (beefy, white_eyes)

[GeneralHankerchief]

Oh joy.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Voting closed.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Voting re-opened.

We have a three-way tie between Curio, Andres, and taka. The round will end immediately after the tie is broken, regardless of any unvotes and such.

[Andres]

Oh joy.

You're evil

[GeneralHankerchief]

You're evil

I think the sign of a good game is when the host gets feedback like this.

[White_eyes:D]

Unvote:taka Vote:Curio although curio has been around here....I don't think Andres is guilty...

[GeneralHankerchief]

Voting closed.

[GeneralHankerchief]

(The following is written mostly by Reenk Roink)

Day 10

Throughout the day, Gaius Scribonius Curio saw that the townies fingered him as the one responsible for the murders. He knew he would have to face terrible judgment of The Wanax, also known as Chief of Police Reenk Roink, at the end of the day.

At first, Curio sobbed incessantly, wishing that shlin28 was still around to give more conventional executions, but his despair soon turned into desperation. Curio hatched a plan to escape the wrath of The Wanax.

You see, quite sometime back, Curio had built a small but fortified underground shelter because he was a man who liked to plan ahead. This shelter was stocked with every household appliance as well as generators to power them, and enough Ramen noodles to last years and years.

Some hours before the voting phase ended, Curio made a dash for his stronghold and barricaded himself in it. The other townies only realized what he was up to much too late, and were unable to stop him. They banged on the sealed doorway but to no avail. Curio laughed at them from inside: "HAHAHA! The Wanax will take his wrath on you now! Such is the price you pay for voting for me!"

The prospect of this terrified the townies, and when the unmistakable call of The Wanax came at execution time, the townies meekly went to the Gameroom square where The Wanax, who had appeared out of nowhere, stood motionless, a barrel of water by his side.

"WHERE IS THE ACCUSED?" The Wanax demanded.

From his shelter, Curio watched closely on monitor number 4 of his surveillance system of the whole town. He chuckled at his own brilliance as he got ready to watch The Wanax take his wrath out on those who voted against him.

At some length the bravest of the townies, Beefy187, spoke up: "Um, well you see Mr. Wanax sir, he... um... he escaped before voting ended when he saw things weren't going well and ran into a impenetrable shelter. We found no way of getting in, but perhaps you could with your awesome powers and mighty phasgana Mr. Wanax sir."

"OK," boomed The Wanax as he remained too calm for the townies comfort. Briefly pulling out and looking at the phasgana, he elected to put it aside and instead went to the barrel of water and began uttering some chants.

The Wanax then gestured for the townies to come gather around the barrel which they did with much hesitancy. When they peered in, they could see Curio inside his shelter.

Curio himself was getting quite worried at the spectacle of the townies peering into the barrel, unscathed by The Wanax, and he had an uncanny feeling of being watched. As he begin to pace around, he heard a soft hum coming from the kitchen nook. Panicked, he went to investigate.

There, Curio saw the oddest and most horrifying sight of his life. The thousands of boxes of Ramen noodles were empty, and they were all stuffed into a small microwave (don't ask how it was done, The Wanax is good).

Curio could see the burgeoning microwave was about to explode any moment. He tried to get out of the house any way possible, but everything was barricaded. The irony dawning on him, Gaius Scribonius Curio elected to commit suicide rather than be scalded to death by Ramen noodles. He ran back to grab a knife, but as soon as he reached the counter...

The townies did not have to look at the pool to witness the spectacular sight of the exploding shelter and a Ramen noodle mushroom cloud on its site...

Andres was seen going up to the edge of the noodle fallout to eat, but not by everybody, as 777Ares777 and taka were too preoccupied with noticing dark clouds that seemed to follow them home.

Day 10 tally:

Gaius Scribonius Curio: 3 (Andres, Quintus.JC, White_eyes:D)
Andres: 2 (Reenk Roink, Gaius Scribonius Curio)
taka: 1 (Beefy187)

~~~~~~~~~~

Still alive: (7)
777Ares777
Andres
Quintus.JC
White_eyes:D
Reenk Roink
Beefy187
taka

Killed:
Tratorix
CountArach
seireikhaan
boudica
TinCow
Jolt
Ignoramus
Sasaki Kojiro
Psychonaut
LittleGrizzly
Chaotix27
pevergreen

Executed:
Ichigo
Lord Winter
Sigurd
Askthepizzaguy
TevashSzat
Seamus Fermanagh
shlin28
glyphz
Gaius Scribonius Curio

[TinCow]

Unvote:taka Vote:Curio although curio has been around here....I don't think Andres is guilty...

I think this was a wise choice. I watched with interest as Andres posted in multiple places on the Org after the sudden death period had expired, including this thread, without changing his own. He kept his vote on despite knowing that he could save himself instantly with a vote change and that by not changing his vote, he could be killed off immediately at the whims of one other player. If he is the Godfather, it would require absolutely immense levels of testicular fortitude to do this. I would have personally switched my own vote even if I was innocent. If there is more than one mafioso alive and Andres is just a grunt, then his bravery is far less worthy of praise, but if that's the case I think the game is pretty much lost anyway.

In any case, I think the above is a major point in Andres' favor.

[seireikhaan]

Man... I got a bad feeling about this game.

My FoS goes to Reenk.