Swords in the Moon [Concluded]

[Yoyoma1910]

From caves step cold men
Their old knees stiff from kneeling
With new will to live.



Vote:AggonyDuck

[Captain Blackadder]

Vote Abstain

For now I will wait for Count Arach to comment on the dual situation before doing an actual vote.

[Andres]

Andres: Is there any real chance of a lower score defeating a higher score duelist, or is this chance very small?

When I roll the dice, it's in the hands of the kami of coincidence.

The answer is: yes, a lower score can defeat a higher score.

Start spreadin' the noose, for lynching today
I want to be a part of it - TinCow TinCow!
These dead geisha blues, I can't vote anyway
Got stabbed right in the heart by him - TinCow TinCow!

We won't wake up in the mornin' - couldn't sleep
Because the ninjas that kill - when we're countin' sheep.

The townies are blue, they're dying away
Today they'll find a new scapgoat - in ol' TinCow.
If we can lynch him now, with no proof anyhow
It will be you - Tin-Cow Tin-Cow!

[Husar]

Husar saved himself.

Yes, reminds me of a certain truck incident....
Either way I always have to save myself.

I think it's pretty clear that Husar is one of the swordmasters, atleast on the basis of the write-up, but it remains to be seen how his injury will affect his abilities.

Well, what sort of abilities do you think any samurai would have left with a broken shoulder?

I'm also suspicious of some people who have only a few posts by now, including myself, we may be right about TinCow and Beskar being suspicious but there are some players who are alive and have only posted around 4 times here, surely we shouldn't lose them out of sight. Sigurd hasn't posted a lot more either so far and everyvbody should know that his mafia style is to lurk and stifle discussion so maybe if he was indeed guilty, his team may be hiding among the lurkers while the vocal players tear one another apart.

[Prince Cobra]

Yet, I think the Mafia shall have at least one active member.

About Sasaki: Takeda-sama, I ask you to fins some spare time and to tell us what do you think/know about his innocence. Thus, further complications can be avoided.

[Beskar]

his team may be hiding among the lurkers while the vocal players tear one another apart.

Then there are people who was once active and basically don't post at all now, like Ichigo.

Plus the Bandwagon against me and TinCow is retarded. Makes me want to see the Mafia the win then people see who they actually were then that can shoot themselves for being the idiots they were.

[Sigurd]

I realise that I might not be able to read through it all as I am only half way into this thread, but where does it say that I need to read it all to participate?

I will say this though, TinCow's PM is IDENTICAL to the one I got down to the little faults and format errors. Taking TinCow's quoted PM and my role PM into MS Word will yield the same font, spacing and spelling/grammatical errors. They are identical down to the letter, except for our in game names.

If I am not allowed to post this Andres, feel free to edit out that which is illegal.

[Andres]

spelling/grammatical errors.

Lies!

I am INFALLIBLE

[Sigurd]

Where's Sigurd when you need him....need to find out the chances of TC beating YLC.

I am right here, but can only communicate in public. What do you want to know?

Lies!

I am INFALLIBLE

Oh there is not much to pick at, just the odd missing space after a colon and the consistent use of American English and the word suspicious which is spelt wrong in your PMs.

[AggonyDuck]

Such as?

Asking what is the highest known battle rating, using this as your reasoning:

I don`t want to sit around waiting to be murdered in my sleep or whatever. I`ve only asked for the highest number to be posted, I didn`t ask for any names. I could be a battle rating of 5 which may sound high but what if there are people rated 15? then a 5 would be a bit pants and suggest dueling is probably not the way forward for me etc.

What makes this strange, is that for someone who doesn't want to wait around and be murdered in your sleep, you've made awfully few challenges. None in fact. Add to that the fact that your voting reasons haven't been the most convincing and you're suspicious enough for my vote.

[AggonyDuck]

As for determining Sasaki's innocence, I suggest challenging him, as that will provide us with additional information of his role.

[Beefy187]

Is it possible for the mafias to have a forged pms? Like a cover pms?
I think they do in most mafia games. So pm doesn't give us much clues.

Andres did say those with low duel score could beat the better warrior, but we have nothing better to go on.

Vote: TinCow
Challenge: GH

Lets end this already GH

[Death is yonder]

I think Andres suggested that lower battle ratings can defeat higher battle ratings is possibly due to percentage.

Eg: Equal % = 50% Chance for each person

Rating=-0 opponent= 50% ? Player X = 5 Player Y = 5
Rating=-2 opponent= 40%? Player X = 4 Player Y= 6
Rating =-4 Opponent= 30%? Player X = 3 Player Y = 7
Rating = -7 Opponent = 15%? Player X = 2 Player Y = 9
Rating = -9 Opponent = 10%? Player X = 1 Player Y = 10
Rating = -10 Opponent = 5%? Player X = 0 Player Y = 10
Rating= -11 Opponent = 0%? Player X = -1 Player Y = 10

I presume this to be a rough idea of how things are probably going for duels.

Dunno who to vote.

[Beskar]

Unless TinCow had a cover pm, he is innocent. I am innocent but people just don't like me,they are murderers.

[TinCow]

That would depend upon the circumstances of your death, wouldn't it? If it is an honourable one, you are vindicated and you can still serve Lord Shingen as a Samurai Ghost. Apart from voting for lynchings, your analytical skills would still be useful - in the same way mine are not.

I will do whatever seems best to help me win the game. If the circumstances of my now seemingly inevitable death give people some grounds to trust me, I may continue to participate regularly. If everyone is convinced that I am scum after I die, it would be in my own interests to bow out because my statements would achieve little more than to confuse the town further. I would, of course, still follow the game intensely, and would probably still have difficulty keeping my mouth shut if something huge jumped out at me.

TinCow, did you receive a bonus to your battle rating after this duel? How high is it now?

I have not received a single PM from Andres of any kind since I got my role PM.

[Husar]

I think Andres suggested that lower battle ratings can defeat higher battle ratings is possibly due to percentage.

Eg: Equal % = 50% Chance for each person

Rating=-0 opponent= 50% ? Player X = 5 Player Y = 5
Rating=-2 opponent= 40%? Player X = 4 Player Y= 6
Rating =-4 Opponent= 30%? Player X = 3 Player Y = 7
Rating = -7 Opponent = 15%? Player X = 2 Player Y = 9
Rating = -9 Opponent = 10%? Player X = 1 Player Y = 10
Rating = -10 Opponent = 5%? Player X = 0 Player Y = 10
Rating= -11 Opponent = 0%? Player X = -1 Player Y = 10

I presume this to be a rough idea of how things are probably going for duels.

Dunno who to vote.

How about a die is thrown (random number generated, it's an excel sheet after all) and then the number of the die is added to the duel rating and whoever has the higher number wins this round, IIRC every battle consists of three rounds and I guess whoever wins more rounds wins in the end or something like that. It could be even more complicated, Sigurd is pretty clever and noone knows what formulae he comes up with when he sits in his dark chamber and does....dark things...

[Yaropolk]

Andres mentioned that he rolls dice for the battle results. I can think of 2 ways he could have implemented this:

Roll dice x number of times, then add battle score to the sum. Assuming these aren't 27 sided nerd dice, each point of difference between battle scores contributes roughly 1/6 or 16% to victory odds.

The other technique would be to roll dice the same number of times as your battle score and add the rolls up. This will give more advantage to the higher score since for every point of combat rating he will get 1-6 more points. Someone smarter than me can figure out the odds

I think Andres suggested that lower battle ratings can defeat higher battle ratings is possibly due to percentage.

Eg: Equal % = 50% Chance for each person

Rating=-0 opponent= 50% ? Player X = 5 Player Y = 5
Rating=-2 opponent= 40%? Player X = 4 Player Y= 6
Rating =-4 Opponent= 30%? Player X = 3 Player Y = 7
Rating = -7 Opponent = 15%? Player X = 2 Player Y = 9
Rating = -9 Opponent = 10%? Player X = 1 Player Y = 10
Rating = -10 Opponent = 5%? Player X = 0 Player Y = 10
Rating= -11 Opponent = 0%? Player X = -1 Player Y = 10

I presume this to be a rough idea of how things are probably going for duels.

Dunno who to vote.

[CountArach]

Alright sorry for being absent everyone, I had a big thing to do for Uni but that is out of the way now so I have more time to devote to this. I'll just read through the last 5 pages now... give me a sec and I'll answer some questions/requests put to me.

[Kagemusha]

Vote: Tincow. You dont behead Sanada Yukimura and be just nobody. That is just impossible.

[Death is yonder]

Ah right, forgot something. Vote: Abstain. Placeholder cause I'm busy.

[CountArach]

Re: Sasaki's protection - I can confirm this was the result of a pro-town action. No names, obviously.

The result of the TinCow vs YLC duel surprised me - YLC had the higher duel rating. Unfortunately, this is the only duel in which I have both person's duel ratings so there isn't much to compare to in regards to duels with a disparity. However, it really does seem to be something worth going on so I shall Vote: TinCow for the moment at least.

Now for some naming and shaming. The only 5 people who I haven't received a duel rating from are the following people:

• Peasant Phill
• taka
• Rhyfelwyr
• Kagemusha
• Tristan de Castelreng

So if you have nay suspicions on these people then go nuts. Remember that they just legitimately have not seen my constant messages, but who knows?

Hmmm - a misspelling of a common word by a Lawyer-type. Now, seeing as lawyers are supposed to be educated, perhaps this error is borne of the stress from trying to conceal his mafiosoness?

Perhaps mafiosity would be a better term?

[Kagemusha]

Re: Sasaki's protection - I can confirm this was the result of a pro-town action. No names, obviously.

The result of the TinCow vs YLC duel surprised me - YLC had the higher duel rating. Unfortunately, this is the only duel in which I have both person's duel ratings so there isn't much to compare to in regards to duels with a disparity. However, it really does seem to be something worth going on so I shall Vote: TinCow for the moment at least.

Now for some naming and shaming. The only 5 people who I haven't received a duel rating from are the following people:

• Peasant Phill
• taka
• Rhyfelwyr
• Kagemusha
• Tristan de Castelreng

So if you have nay suspicions on these people then go nuts. Remember that they just legitimately have not seen my constant messages, but who knows?

Perhaps mafiosity would be a better term?

CA. Recheck your messages. I have sent you the pm about my duel value on 23rd of this month. 13:15 my time.

[CountArach]

CA. Recheck your messages. I have sent you the pm about my duel value on 23rd of this month. 13:15 my time.

My mistake, you are correct

[TinCow]

Andres just sent this to me:

You managed to defeat a stronger opponent. You learned alot from this duel, which is reflected in a bonus to your battlerating.

New battle rating: 4.




P.S.: Sorry for the late pm, forgot to send it

[Yaropolk]

According to my calculations above, the odds of YLC winning were at least 32% in his favor...maybe TinCow is telling the truth about duel, but getting Rhyfelwyr to post his pm was still bad.

Unvote: Tincow
Vote: Rhyfelwyr

For not sending in your score.
P.S. My tongue hurts trying to spell you name out!

[FactionHeir]

I think TC is telling the truth.

vote: Tristan de Castelreng

[Sigurd]

How about a die is thrown (random number generated, it's an excel sheet after all) and then the number of the die is added to the duel rating and whoever has the higher number wins this round, IIRC every battle consists of three rounds and I guess whoever wins more rounds wins in the end or something like that. It could be even more complicated, Sigurd is pretty clever and noone knows what formulae he comes up with when he sits in his dark chamber and does....dark things...

If Andres followed my formulae from Midgard II, then the battle mechanics are quite simple (it is basically the battle mechanic from the game Risk).
The duel score determines how many "soldiers" each player have. Each soldier has a die. In each round three "soldiers" from each team can fight each other.

Let's say TinCow had a duel score of 3 and YLC had a duel score of 3. They would have 3 dice each to battle with.

Round 1:
Since YLC challenged TinCow he goes first. He roles: 2 4 3. Then TinCow roles: 4 3 1
You then match the dice:
Attacker: 4 3 2
Defender: 4 3 1

The attacker is at a disadvantage since he will lose dice that are even with the defender's dice.
YLC have one die left while TinCow has two.

Round 2:

YLC: 6
TinC: 5 4

The attacker beats one of the dice of the defender they are both down to one die each.

Round 3:

YLC: 5
TinC: 5

They both roll a 5, but since defender dice are more powerfull, the attacker loses.

TinCow wins and should get a bonus point for gaining experience.

That is IF Andres used my system from Midgard...

[Kagemusha]

FOS Yaropolk and FactionHeir. Helping out to turn the tide for your mafia buddy are we?

[KukriKhan]

Re: Sasaki's protection - I can confirm this was the result of a pro-town action. No names, obviously.

The result of the TinCow vs YLC duel surprised me - YLC had the higher duel rating. Unfortunately, this is the only duel in which I have both person's duel ratings so there isn't much to compare to in regards to duels with a disparity. However, it really does seem to be something worth going on so I shall Vote: TinCow for the moment at least.

Now for some naming and shaming. The only 5 people who I haven't received a duel rating from are the following people:

• Peasant Phill
• taka
• Rhyfelwyr
• Kagemusha
• Tristan de Castelreng

So if you have nay suspicions on these people then go nuts. Remember that they just legitimately have not seen my constant messages, but who knows?

Perhaps mafiosity would be a better term?

CA clears Sasaki, and Sigurd explains TinCows's victory; CA finds Kagemusha's br pm.

-----------------------------

vote: Rhyfelwyr

for non-compliance in sending in battle-ratings - especially after possible numbers have been discussed in-thread.

[CountArach]

CA clears Sasaki, and Sigurd explains TinCows's victory; CA finds Kagemusha's br pm.

Sigurd's explanation holds true only if Andres uses the same system that Sigurd does, which I find unlikely.