...you'll see that Sasaki confronted Gobble's killer. That's the first person he meets and fights. The second person that shows up is an independent target on Sasaki. Thus, there are only 3 killers active last night. CA's killer, Sasaki's second man, and Gobble's killer who shows up twice.
Look over the description of Sasaki's death:
Suddenly two explosions rang out from the darkness to his right.
Also, the picture in the description shows two gunmen. So I still maintain there were FOUR killers in action.
1) Gobble's killer was very un-ninja-like with a bash over the head with a log and subsequent burning. Seems like a traitor kill.
2) CA's killer was the strangler (in a tent BTW TC). When "ground gave way under his feet", right after CA ate, this must have been some kind of drug which we got a hint of in the master ninja pre-attack scene. That would make this a ninja kill.
3) Sasaki had two killers with guns and he "lept at the man closest him." I don't think the second man was Gobble's killer. This attack accounts for two of the three ninja attacks. As final confirmation, they took Sasaki's head, which was part of the orders to the master ninja in the OP.
For a short time it appeared we got both the traitors. Apparently not.
And we are still issuing challenges willy-nilly without any forethought or discussion. The situation is grim. Really grim.
There is no verifiable list of "innocents." Too many people doubt its membership, doubt BG, doubt Sasaki, doubt everything. Take them all out. Vote to lynch one and issue challenges to all the remainder. Repeat until all are killed.
Upon their deaths, the validity or non-validity of BG and Sasaki's reveals is then moot and we can get to the end game -- it is only when our numbers are below 15 that we will start to get a lot of dead mafiosi. Until then, we must remove enough of the troubling "innocent" to get the end game in gear.
Challenge: Generalhankerchief
Unvote: Factionheir, Vote: Beskar
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
Originally Posted by TosaInu
At times I read back my own posts [...]. It's not always clear at first glance.
Seamus, BG's claim has more or less been validated, so I find it to be immensely foolish to try to reduce the amount of confirmed innocents at this point. The traitors and ninjas do not need our help to reduce them. Better concentrate on the unknowns now and once we are in the real end-game re-evaluate the guilt of the remaining "innocents".
Friendship, Fun & Honour!
"The Prussian army always attacks."
-Frederick the Great
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
Originally Posted by TosaInu
At times I read back my own posts [...]. It's not always clear at first glance.
For the moment it is better to assume that they are. We have more acute problems to deal with. Add to this the fact that only the Ninja Master should appear innocent, so we only have a 25% chance of getting it right if we start lynching our 'confirmed' innocents. It is better to concentrate on those we know nothing about and later on re-evaluate the situation.
Friendship, Fun & Honour!
"The Prussian army always attacks."
-Frederick the Great
I'm with The Duck. BQ's list is the best info we have to date and yielded a positive result. To ignore it seems foolish. Barring any brilliant detective work, how could things get any worse by following the list?
I don't have time to go back and look, but, apart from the innocent list, who else did Sasaki think was innocent? Sasaki's surprise at the assassin may have been a hint that it was someone he labeled as a good guy.
Also, the picture in the description shows two gunmen. So I still maintain there were FOUR killers in action.
1) Gobble's killer was very un-ninja-like with a bash over the head with a log and subsequent burning. Seems like a traitor kill.
2) CA's killer was the strangler (in a tent BTW TC). When "ground gave way under his feet", right after CA ate, this must have been some kind of drug which we got a hint of in the master ninja pre-attack scene. That would make this a ninja kill.
3) Sasaki had two killers with guns and he "lept at the man closest him." I don't think the second man was Gobble's killer. This attack accounts for two of the three ninja attacks. As final confirmation, they took Sasaki's head, which was part of the orders to the master ninja in the OP.
For a short time it appeared we got both the traitors. Apparently not.
I'll give up on this one, as I see nothing more useful coming from it. As a final point, I'll note that FactionHeir claims both of Sasaki's killers were traitors and you claim both of them were ninjas. At least we can all agree that Andres' clues remain as quizzical as ever.
And we are still issuing challenges willy-nilly without any forethought or discussion. The situation is grim. Really grim.
I personally do not think the mafia will issue challenges. I would look for our suspects amongst those who have not done so.
I believe the real battle ratings of the ninjas are around 4-5, making duels pretty much a 50-50 chance gamble. Only the ninja master might have a higher battle rating than your average veteran samurai. At this stage of the game, it is better for anti-town not to challenge and hope that samurai challenges samurai.
Friendship, Fun & Honour!
"The Prussian army always attacks."
-Frederick the Great
Of the unconfirmed players I've got three major suspects:
1. FactionHeir: Lots of analysis on the kills, who has what role etc.; gives the impression of working for the town's good, but gives very little solid to go with. I've noticed, that for some reason killers tend to be fixated on the kills.
2. Ajaxfetish: Very little to go on as he has lurked big time, but he's also been quasi-helpful for the town effort. Add to this the Andres profile/Swords of the Moon/PM thing that Stephen Asen caught him doing and he's high on my suspect list.
3. Rhyfelwyr: The last of the pevers standing. Another lurker. Overall there is very little to go by here either, but his behaviour is suspicious.
Additionally during the last seven days and nights, they haven't been the challenger once.
Friendship, Fun & Honour!
"The Prussian army always attacks."
-Frederick the Great
So Seamus, Caius and Dutch_guy tend not to vote. Does that mean likely bad guys?
General Hankerchief, Stephen Asen and White Eyes:D have issued several challenges. That puts them likely in the good guy camp? GH and SA have the benefit of being on the innocent list too.
Edit: Ah, I see your analysis. It is as good as anything we have to go on. The ajaxfetish case looks strong the more I think about it because the town is out of bullets (special roles) which makes the activities observed by Stephen very suspect.
I trust Ducky's gut more than pretty much anything else in this game, and I have a good chance of dealing with Seamus anyway this round.
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
Originally Posted by TosaInu
At times I read back my own posts [...]. It's not always clear at first glance.
He is the ninja. I been on his tail for a while and ever since mentioning him as my suspect, he has constantly been voting for me since. He also lurks like hell and look at his voting record, they all have been innocents.
For those voting me, you are ensuring your deaths. Voting for known innocents is the stupidest thing in existence.
Last edited by Beskar; 05-06-2009 at 10:33.
Days since the Apocalypse began
"We are living in space-age times but there's too many of us thinking with stone-age minds" | How to spot a Humanist
"Men of Quality do not fear Equality." | "Belief doesn't change facts. Facts, if you are reasonable, should change your beliefs."
CA has everyone's battle ratings. Assuming that he is town and willing to help, he could post a suspect list of anyone with a rating higher than 4, as new samurai have 3 and veterans 5 by default. In fact, anything not 3 or 5 is suspect.
As TC claimed, all traitors and ninjas have veteran samurai as cover roles, not basic samurai. If that claim is true and CA can post his suspect list without ratings (just post that he suspects those people without giving a reason but the hidden reason being that they have 4+ so as not to directly break Andres rules), we can have these people challenge each other during day phase (i.e. vet vs vet). Those not challenging can be lynched in a combined effort to get rid of the mafia.
TinCow didn't post that they have Veteran Samurai roles, I did.
Look at all the examples, all the known ninja were "veteran samurai" even BQ and Sasaki, even the Geisha.
Days since the Apocalypse began
"We are living in space-age times but there's too many of us thinking with stone-age minds" | How to spot a Humanist
"Men of Quality do not fear Equality." | "Belief doesn't change facts. Facts, if you are reasonable, should change your beliefs."
Isn't Ichigo strangely quiet or is that because he is a lot less active in general lately?
I got absolutely no idea and the ones I have I'm not allowed to post, the others I wasn't allowed to execute and working around it was prevented by the drunk commie( <3 ) so good luck is all I can say.
Gobble's kill is carried out like the SK/ninja one.
CA was killed by ninja (drugged rice from Kato)
Sasaki was beheaded and his head taken (likley ninja) and there were 2 killers
Now, unless ninja and traitors are cooperating, QJC wasn't a ninja but a traitor, or the ninja for some weird reason got 4 kills in last night (2 on Sasaki).
And Gobbles killer is not Sasaki's killer because as I said Gobble's body was near CA and the mention is on Sasaki being beheaded elsewhere. Besides, Gobble was also burned according to the writeup, though that wasn't reflected upon in the crime scene - unlikely to be significant though.
So Seamus, Caius and Dutch_guy tend not to vote. Does that mean likely bad guys?
They should had been WoG'd, because having more no votes than votes at this phase is just silly. That said I don't think Seamus or Caius are guilty. They look more like rather inactive players. With Dutch_guy you can never know as he is your typical lurker and the no vote sequences are shorter.
Friendship, Fun & Honour!
"The Prussian army always attacks."
-Frederick the Great
Of the unconfirmed players I've got three major suspects:
1. FactionHeir: Lots of analysis on the kills, who has what role etc.; gives the impression of working for the town's good, but gives very little solid to go with. I've noticed, that for some reason killers tend to be fixated on the kills.
Additionally during the last seven days and nights, they haven't been the challenger once.
Find me a standard mafia game where I was not fixated on the kills, either as town or as mafia.
And outside of being the detective, its rather impossible to have something solid to go with.
And with a rating of 3, its suicide to go challenge people when you can stay alive and vote (was that WIFOM and giving the impression I have to survive till the end and therefore must be scum? )
Well what strikes me as odd isn't that you are analyzing the kills, but the frequency of it. Almost 75% of your posts are kill analyses. From what I looked in some other games you played, the obsession with the kills was far lower in them.
Last edited by AggonyDuck; 05-06-2009 at 12:09.
Friendship, Fun & Honour!
"The Prussian army always attacks."
-Frederick the Great
I am used to you going with your gut...nice analysis .
Yes, I am reasonably sure that BG's list was accurate. His tone/writing style with the reveal and subsequent posts were very much normal for him. The attacks on Sasaki and CA seemed to bear out their stories well in addition.
Unvote: Beskar
My post was supposed to get people to think. We had a short list of likely innocents (no absolutely confirmed innocents of course, but that's mafia), but all of the voting was on me as a suspected GF of the ninja...leaving the rest under-analyzed.
GH should get a chance to sword me down -- it'll let him focus better afterwards -- but I think the focus should be on those we have NO indication of innocence, but who's behavior does seem "off."
Vote: Factionheir
Still not ringing true for me.
My role is generic samurai, the role has already been posted, so posting mine would only evoke the "he could have faked it all" response, so I'll let GH sword me down or let the mafia whack me when they realize I won't get voted off the island.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
Isn't Ichigo strangely quiet or is that because he is a lot less active in general lately?
I got absolutely no idea and the ones I have I'm not allowed to post, the others I wasn't allowed to execute and working around it was prevented by the drunk commie( <3 ) so good luck is all I can say.
Oh and, interesting game, Andres!
I've been less active over all of the Org I think.
Originally Posted by Sooh
I wonder if I can make Csargo cry harder by doing everyone but his ISO.
Andres, our esteemed host seems to be (very loosely) following the plot of Kagemusha, the Kurosawa movie. Wiki summary in spoilers:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
The film opens with a shot of what appears to be three identical Shingens. One really is Shingen, the second is his brother, Nobukado. The third man is a thief who Nobukado accidentally came across and spared from crucifixion, believing the thief's uncanny resemblance to Shingen would prove useful. Shingen agrees that he would prove useful as a double and they decide to use the thief as a kagemusha.
Shingen's army has besieged a castle of Tokugawa Ieyasu. When Shingen visits the battlefield to hear a mysterious nightly flute player, he is shot by a sniper. Mortally wounded, he orders his generals to keep his death a secret for three years. Shingen later dies while being carried over a mountain pass, with only a small group of witnesses.
Nobukado presents the thief to the generals and contrives a plan to have this kagemusha impersonate Shingen full-time. At first, even the thief is unaware of Shingen's death, until he tries to break into a huge jar, believing it to contain treasure, and instead finds Shingen's preserved corpse. After this act, the generals decide they cannot trust the thief and set him free.
The Takeda leaders secretly dump the jar with Shingen's corpse into Lake Suwa. Spies working for Tokugawa and his ally, Oda Nobunaga witness the disposal of the jar, and suspect that Shingen has died and go to report the death. The thief, however, overhearing the spies, goes to offer his services hoping to be of some use to Shingen in death. The Takeda clan preserves the cover-up by saying they were making an offering of sake to the god of the lake.
The spies follow the Takeda army as they march home from the siege. Although they suspect that Shingen has died, they are later convinced by the kagemusha's performance.
Returning home, the kagemusha successfully fools Shingen's concubines and grandson. By imitating Shingen's gestures and learning more about him, the kagemusha begins to take on the persona of Shingen, and is able to awe even the bodyguards and wakashu who knew Shingen best. When he must preside over a clan council, and is unexpectedly asked for his decision on a military matter, he cleverly relies on the clan motto, which identifies Shingen with an unmoving mountain.
When Tokugawa and Oda Nobunaga launch an attack against Takeda territory. Shingen's son, Katsuyori, launches a counterattack against the advice of other generals. The kagemusha is forced to lead reinforcements to the Battle of Takatenjin, and helps inspire the troops to victory.
In a fit of overconfidence, the kagemusha attempts to ride Shingen's spirited horse. When he falls off those who rush to help him see that he does not have their lord's battle scars and he is revealed as an impostor. The thief is driven out of the palace, and Katsuyori, despite being disinherited, takes over the clan.
In full control of the Takeda army, Katsuyori leads an ill-advised attack against Oda Nobunaga, who controls Kyoto, resulting in the Battle of Nagashino. Wave after wave of cavalry and infantry are cut down by volleys of matchlock fire, effectively wiping out the Takeda. During this scene, much of the battle is offscreen. Although the charge of the Takeda army and the volley of fire from Nobunaga's soldiers is seen, the actual deaths of the Takeda men is not shown until the battle is over and the viewer sees a vast scene of carnage as more time is given to the aftermath. (In reality, the clan continued under Katsuyori's leadership for years after the battle). The kagemusha, who has followed the Takeda army, witnesses the slaughter. In a final show of loyalty, he takes up a lance and makes a futile charge against Oda's fortifications, ultimately dying for the Takeda clan. The final image is of the kagemusha's bullet-riddled body being washed away down a river, next to the flag of the Takeda clan.
The use of an actor/double, the death by gunshot, parallelling events in the flick. I wonder how CountArach suddenly became a target... I speculate there must have been a caveat in his role PM, like: "If you reveal your true identity, you lose immunity from attack and you are fair game for killing". And how would the ninja & traitors know that? Andres must have told them, after CA's reveal - which floored me, I admit. I anticipated a plot-twist, but not that.
So now, does some (alive) townie get the role of clan leader? Does that guy get any special abilities (like investigations/resurrections)?
We have at least 3, and probably 4, killers still on the loose, hidden among 16 players. Despite some excellent discussion, I see no solid reason to abandon the strategy of using the Banquo's Ghost list of uninvestigated guys to work up suspects.
If I were alive and able to vote, I'd start with the non-participators & non-voters on BG's not-investigated list (who oddly haven't been WoG'd - therefore casting suspicion on them). If we "get" two of them in the next two day phases, we stand a chance of victory, setting aside another plot twist.
Andres, our esteemed host seems to be (very loosely) following the plot of Kagemusha, the Kurosawa movie. Wiki summary in spoilers:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
The film opens with a shot of what appears to be three identical Shingens. One really is Shingen, the second is his brother, Nobukado. The third man is a thief who Nobukado accidentally came across and spared from crucifixion, believing the thief's uncanny resemblance to Shingen would prove useful. Shingen agrees that he would prove useful as a double and they decide to use the thief as a kagemusha.
Shingen's army has besieged a castle of Tokugawa Ieyasu. When Shingen visits the battlefield to hear a mysterious nightly flute player, he is shot by a sniper. Mortally wounded, he orders his generals to keep his death a secret for three years. Shingen later dies while being carried over a mountain pass, with only a small group of witnesses.
Nobukado presents the thief to the generals and contrives a plan to have this kagemusha impersonate Shingen full-time. At first, even the thief is unaware of Shingen's death, until he tries to break into a huge jar, believing it to contain treasure, and instead finds Shingen's preserved corpse. After this act, the generals decide they cannot trust the thief and set him free.
The Takeda leaders secretly dump the jar with Shingen's corpse into Lake Suwa. Spies working for Tokugawa and his ally, Oda Nobunaga witness the disposal of the jar, and suspect that Shingen has died and go to report the death. The thief, however, overhearing the spies, goes to offer his services hoping to be of some use to Shingen in death. The Takeda clan preserves the cover-up by saying they were making an offering of sake to the god of the lake.
The spies follow the Takeda army as they march home from the siege. Although they suspect that Shingen has died, they are later convinced by the kagemusha's performance.
Returning home, the kagemusha successfully fools Shingen's concubines and grandson. By imitating Shingen's gestures and learning more about him, the kagemusha begins to take on the persona of Shingen, and is able to awe even the bodyguards and wakashu who knew Shingen best. When he must preside over a clan council, and is unexpectedly asked for his decision on a military matter, he cleverly relies on the clan motto, which identifies Shingen with an unmoving mountain.
When Tokugawa and Oda Nobunaga launch an attack against Takeda territory. Shingen's son, Katsuyori, launches a counterattack against the advice of other generals. The kagemusha is forced to lead reinforcements to the Battle of Takatenjin, and helps inspire the troops to victory.
In a fit of overconfidence, the kagemusha attempts to ride Shingen's spirited horse. When he falls off those who rush to help him see that he does not have their lord's battle scars and he is revealed as an impostor. The thief is driven out of the palace, and Katsuyori, despite being disinherited, takes over the clan.
In full control of the Takeda army, Katsuyori leads an ill-advised attack against Oda Nobunaga, who controls Kyoto, resulting in the Battle of Nagashino. Wave after wave of cavalry and infantry are cut down by volleys of matchlock fire, effectively wiping out the Takeda. During this scene, much of the battle is offscreen. Although the charge of the Takeda army and the volley of fire from Nobunaga's soldiers is seen, the actual deaths of the Takeda men is not shown until the battle is over and the viewer sees a vast scene of carnage as more time is given to the aftermath. (In reality, the clan continued under Katsuyori's leadership for years after the battle). The kagemusha, who has followed the Takeda army, witnesses the slaughter. In a final show of loyalty, he takes up a lance and makes a futile charge against Oda's fortifications, ultimately dying for the Takeda clan. The final image is of the kagemusha's bullet-riddled body being washed away down a river, next to the flag of the Takeda clan.
The use of an actor/double, the death by gunshot, parallelling events in the flick. I wonder how CountArach suddenly became a target... I speculate there must have been a caveat in his role PM, like: "If you reveal your true identity, you lose immunity from attack and you are fair game for killing". And how would the ninja & traitors know that? Andres must have told them, after CA's reveal - which floored me, I admit. I anticipated a plot-twist, but not that.
So now, does some (alive) townie get the role of clan leader? Does that guy get any special abilities (like investigations/resurrections)?
We have at least 3, and probably 4, killers still on the loose, hidden among 16 players. Despite some excellent discussion, I see no solid reason to abandon the strategy of using the Banquo's Ghost list of uninvestigated guys to work up suspects.
If I were alive and able to vote, I'd start with the non-participators & non-voters on BG's not-investigated list (who oddly haven't been WoG'd - therefore casting suspicion on them). If we "get" two of them in the next two day phases, we stand a chance of victory, setting aside another plot twist.
...I was in the belief that you (Sasaki Kojiro) were protected that night due to the fact that you were the real Shingen, while Count Arach was merely a kagemusha...
Kudos A pity we didn't pursue that avenue more thoroughly, at the time.
But your other statement:
They knew CA was vulnerable after all the swordmasters were killed.
I believe you believe that, but I don't understand, still. How do/did the killers know the swordmasters? Via investigation? Nightly kill narrative? How would they know how many there were? And why did they waste kill time on peons like me, if they knew who the best targets were?
I guess that will all be revealed in the game summary and the other forum reveal, but it's stumbling blocks like those that have made a decent town strategy almost impossible to craft.
Re: Swords in the Moon
Originally Posted by TinCow
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(was that WIFOM and giving the impression I have to survive till the end and therefore must be scum? 
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