
Originally Posted by
Evil_Maniac From Mars
This seems to be a very interesting statistic. Though the vast majority of Americans approve of abortion in certain circumstances, it would appear that Americans are moving more to the cautious edge of defining certain circumstances.
Not to step on CA's more serious poll-smoking, but apparently there are problems with that Gallup poll. Makes sense; why would Americans' opinions shift so much in just a year?
The nuance that I've written about recently deals with the simple fact that Americans seem to care quite a bit why a woman seeks an abortion. And once they are aware of a plausible rationale, anti-abortion attitudes appear to relax.
The best example comes from 2003, at the very height of one of the congressional battles over so-called "partial-birth" abortions. The very same ABC poll that showed 62% of Americans favoring a ban on these much-demonized procedures also showed that 61% favored a "health of the mother" exception, even in these cases.
It's an article of faith among right-to-lifers, of course, that a "health exception" makes a mockery of any abortion restrictions. And that's why in a famous moment in one of the presidential debates last year, John McCain sneered and held up "quote marks" when referring to a "health exception." The public reaction was not positive, indicating that abstract hostility towards abortion may well disguise a more sympathetic attitude when it comes to actual women making actual decisions about a pregnancy. To put it another way, who cares if there's a shift towards self-reported "pro-life" sentiments, if consistent majorities basically approve of the constitutional and legal status quo?
In any event, it's maddening that so few polls on abortion get into these sorts of questions. Until they do, we are all entitled to dismiss the big headlines, and rely on hard data like election results to determine which basic direction in abortion policy Americans tend to support. Based on that data, the anti-abortion cause is not doing very well.
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