Rubicon [Concluded]

**TinCow** · 06-10-2009, 00:22

“No one can give you better advice than yourself.”
- Marcus Tullius Cicero

Excel Spreadsheet tracking all game actions

Before the game begins:

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I am surprised by the speed of the sign-ups. While pleasing, it also puts a bit of pressure on me to perform, since this is my first mafia game. It’s worth noting at this point that Rubicon is actually a stripped down version of the game I originally envisioned (The Thirty Years War), which would have required about 50-60 players. I figured it was impossible to get that number of players, so I kept the core mechanic of my idea (town divided against itself) and made Rubicon with a smaller size and fewer roles.

The speed of the sign-ups has made me question how large I should expand the game. A couple weeks ago (I’ve been fiddling with this game off and on for several months now), I drew up a basic outline for expansion of this game to 45 players, but I didn’t complete it. Here is that outline:

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The basic difference was increasing the mafia families to 4 members each (1 Dictator/3 Legates, then called Generals), adding in 1 extra Consul and Praetor (I had no choice in who these were, since I am using historically accurate roles and there are only 2 Consuls, both Optimates, and a handful of Praetors in 49 BC), adding in ‘Neutral’ Senators, and adding in more partisan Senators. There were problems with this though. First, the obvious 4th Caesarian Legate was Lepidus, but that broke one of the Amicitia pairs and I couldn’t find another easy Populares relationship to generate. Second, I was not happy with the sketch for the Neutral Senator roles. They just seemed boring, incomplete, and likely to steal some of Cleopatra’s wind. Third, with the game this close to starting, I didn’t feel like I had the time to properly write and re-write almost 20 new background descriptions.

In the end, I decided not to use the 45 person expansion. I liked the original 31 person set-up very much (it would also have worked with 27 or 29 people without dropping any special roles) and figured it would be better to keep the game smaller rather than risk making it too complex or unbalanced. This was especially true since (at the moment I am writing this) I’m not even sure how well the divided town idea will work. Still it was clear I was going to go over 31 players, so I gave it some consideration and decided I could add on 2 partisan Senators to each side without it impacting the balance much, for a total of 35. I then bumped it up to 37 with the addition of 2 extra doctors (1 Praetor, 1 Consul) and compensated for the mafia families by allowing the Dictator roles to kill or protect whenever they wanted. In the original version, the Dictator could only kill when his Legates were dead, could never protect, and was essentially confined to investigating while his Legates were around. So, this balance upped the mafia killing power to 3 per night from 2 to compensate for the extra players and the extra doctors.

Speaking of balance, I do feel like I have a lot of freedom in creating the roles for this game, because it’s pretty much impossible to make the partisan halves unbalanced. Since they’re mirror images of each other, it’s impossible for one to be more powerful than the other at the start. Incidentally, this mirror image need was the reason for the slight fudge of making Cicero a Populares… apologies to anyone this annoyed during the game, but no other character fit into this role with Cato, and I couldn’t very well make Cato a Populares, could I? Plus, Cicero was a moderate, he tried to appease both sides, and by all rights he should have been a Populares due to his provincial novo homus background!

The real balance issue is whether the ‘Republic’ victory has any chance at all. This is the main problem I’ve encountered with creating this game, and the reason why I consider Rubicon to be a simple test setup for the real game I want to run. After much thought, I concluded that the slower the rate of the kills, the better the Republic’s odds. Cicero and Cato are very powerful pro-town roles. If whoever gets them survives for a while and makes full use of their abilities, I think the Republic victory has a serious chance of winning despite the massive obstacles in their way. If Cicero and Cato die early or are otherwise ineffective, I predict that the Republic victory will be impossible.

This is why I’ve made the game protection heavy. Villa Stronghold is easily the most common ability (4 per faction in the 31 version, 5 in the 37 version), Manumission is rare (1 per faction in the 31 version, 2 in the 37 version), assembling 4 Senators for a kill group is likely to be very difficult given the factionalism, Mafioso are likely to spend some time protecting each other instead of killing, and allowing no lynch may result in a couple death-free days. All in all, it is my hope that these things will factor together to give Cicero and Cato a chance to get some work done before they inevitably die. While I would consider it to be a historically accurate result for the Republic victory to fail with an early exit of these roles, my focus on the feasibility of the Republic victory is largely to determine whether I should bother trying to create the ‘real’ game. We’ll see. Let the games begin!

Role Distribution

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Night 1

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Several Senator investigation pairs are up and running already. As expected, both Amicitia pairs are working together. They both have the potential to rally small groups of their own faction quickly, so it will be interesting to see whether they attempt this and which side they try and support from the start. Amusingly, both Dictators have gotten themselves roped into Senator investigation groups with a random person: Andres with Beskar and Cultured Drizzt Fan with Tiberius of the Drake. While they were both probably going to investigate anyway, it poses potential problems for them if they can’t shake their partners in future nights.

AggonyDuck pops his one time investigation on GH. Caius has already put out a feeler looking for Cicero. The biggest risk with the latin connection is that someone else will randomly spout some of it while roleplaying… which of course was my intention when making that the clue. This bit was inspired by Seamus’ Capo II Crusader group, btw. Let’s see if the ‘Republican Crusaders’ can do better than their Capo counterparts.

Sasaki is spot on in this post: investigations are almost certainly a bad idea for the town in general. This is the prisoner’s dilemma manifested in mafia; unless everyone stays the course, it’s going to get very messy to their detriment. Lots of investigation results means lots of temptation to turn on the other faction. Ignorance is bliss for the town in this game. Of course, I still expect Sasaki to go mafioso in the end-game unless a Republic victory seems guaranteed… and maybe even then.

White_eyes is the first death chosen by the Caesarians, apparently for being a “semi-lurker.” Not a bad strategy. Glenn hasn’t even picked up his role PM, which is a bad omen. I will not accept orders from other people for their partners, but this situation seems inequitable. Last time Glenn was online, the game had not started and it looked like Villains was going to take several more days to finish. Since Glenn has not been online to discover that the game has started, and had a legitimate reason to expect that the start was several days off yet, I don’t consider it his fault that he hasn’t been online to submit orders. Andres has requested the ability to submit orders for Glenn. I will allow it until Glenn receives his role PM or is WoGed. The only other person who hasn’t received their role PM is TheFlax, who has one of the Praetor roles.

The Pompeiians are opting to do a double investigation instead of killing. A wise policy, as this is less likely to result in accidental Optimates deaths. Clearly they intend to play for Optimates support. In addition to Cultured being roped into the investigation with Tiberius, Tratorix and atheotes intend to combine for a normal Senator investigation. Unfortunately, atheotes hasn’t submitted any orders. He has received his role PM and is well aware the game is underway, so no leeway will be allowed there. The two-person investigation attempt will fail.

Several players drop blatant hints as to their factional allegiance in roleplaying-style posts. Andres submits the first bit of ‘Propaganda.’ He doesn’t let me down, it is hilarious.

With 15 minutes to spare, atheotes gets his orders in. Strangely, they are to kill mini, not help Tratorix investigate. The Pompeiians seem to be suffering from a lack of communication.

Day 1

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Poor mini, being killed in the first round of his first game. Hopefully he’ll stick around, he’s a great Throne Room contributor. TheFlax finally shows up and does not disappoint by voting No Lynch. I’m curious to see how this option will work since I’ve never played with it in a game before. I’m not sure why it’s not very popular, as I see plenty of ways it can be used to both the benefit of the town and the mafia, so it seems balanced. We shall see, I suppose…

Interesting that people are buying Andres’ propaganda as evidence of a role block. I guess there’s still some confusion about the precise origin of that message, despite the title. I expect they’ll catch on quickly.

A short lived-bandwagon on Ichigo emerges, with the justification that he hasn’t yet voted for Sasaki. Ironic, since Ichigo attempted to investigate Sasaki (though failed due to his partner, Yaropolk, being blocked by Chaotix). It soon dissolves into a series of retaliatory votes, without much thought. I expected No Lynch to be the obvious first day option, so this surprises me. Cultured Drizzt fan does an excellent job to dodge what could have been an easy early bandwagon on him. It would have been criminal if Pompey went out on Day 1! The retaliatory craziness is really amazing, this is one of the most vindictive rounds I’ve ever seen.

In the end, a slow trickle of No Lynch votes steadily adds up. It’s not a large number, but with the rest of the votes strewn around haphazardly, the No Lynch prevails. At this point in the game, I think this aids the Republic victory more than either of the mafia families. People are right that eventually you have to start lynching, but without any evidence to go on the odds of lynching a townie in the first round are so high it’s best avoided. At least, that’s how I see it.

Caius makes Ichigo vote for Sasaki just to be amusing; I certainly find it entertaining. Jolt is active, but doesn’t seem to have caught on to the whole “speak Latin so that Cato can recognize you” thing… unless he’s already noted Caius’ statements and they just haven’t contacted me about it yet.

Night 2

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Cue the elevator music while the forums go crazy for a day…

GH and AggonyDuck are now cooperating on an investigation, and GH casually refers to his Lictors in the orders PM which is CCed to AggonyDuck. Clearly Aggony confronted GH about the results last night, who must have revealed, and they now trust each other enough to work together. This is the first evidence of cross-faction trust. I doubt it will accomplish much though since Andres knows Aggony is Optimates and was active last night. I thus expect a Caesarian hit on Aggony tonight, which will snuff that burgeoning friendship.

Good news for the Republic as Jolt and Caius both submit PMs IDing each other. Caius’ use of latin in the thread appears to have worked, and they are both now immune to lynching as long as both remain alive. Their cooperation is about to pay off as well. Jolt submits orders to investigate Navarro, which will reveal a Caesarian Mafioso. Caius is wisely using his action to convert Ichigo into a loyal Republican. They now have a doctor who is a certain ally, which could be very useful.

For the Caesarians, Andres is again roped into an investigation with Beskar, this time of Sasaki who is the ever-popular target. Yaropolk is the chosen hit, which will result in an interesting write-up, since he is also being visited by Cleopatra tonight.

For the Pompeians, Tratorix submits orders to attack Beskar with atheotes. Atheotes doesn’t submit any orders at all, but it doesn’t matter since Beskar has no protection. Cultured Drizzt fan (hereinafter Drizzt, since I’m getting tired of writing his name out) submits orders to protect himself and reports that he’s going to be away camping. I send him a response indicating that he can’t protect himself, only other people, but he doesn’t receive it in time to change his orders. It does not matter though as no one is attacking him anyway. At this point, the Pompeians’ biggest hurdle is their own disorganization.

A townie protection group forms, Beefy, w&f, and Khazaar. They are protecting Captain Blackadder. This is entirely irrelevant to tonight’s actions, but an interesting development in townie cooperation. AggonyDuck and GH investigate Andres, though it won’t give them any useful information at the moment.

Day 2

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Night 3

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As expected, the double vote shift is arousing a lot of attention. People seem to think it was a mafia move, and no one has picked up on the descriptive hints indicating Cato and Cicero. Is there no one with a knowledge of classical history in this game? A little historical analysis would lead them to properly conclude that it was a pro-Republic move. In any case, both mafia families know they have a Republic opponent to go up against.

Drizzt submits an amusing propaganda PM. It will be nice to get to post two head to head for once. Hopefully they’ll start responding to each other in the future, that might be a laugh.

A most unexpected thing occurs: a vigilante group forms to kill pevergreen. It is a nonpartisan grouping of Sasaki (O), splitpersonality (P), AVSM (P), and Iskander (P). An interesting and pro-active attempt to off a mafioso, albeit horribly misguided. Has no one read the description of the vote shifters? I thought they were pretty blatant… Not that I care that much, a vigilante kill will make tonight’s write-up interesting.

The protection group of Beefy, w&f, and Khazaar is active once again and protecting Sasaki this time.

Luck is just not on the Caesarians’ side in this game. The Pompeians submit orders to kill Ichigo, Glenn, and Andres. These must be random kills, as they were submitted quickly after a late reminder from me about the time limit being about to expure; beginners luck in every sense of the term. Ichigo survives as he was protecting himself, as does Andres due to him having Glenn protect him. However, Glenn dies and Andres will show up as protected in the write-up, which could well put him under lynch pressure. This will be a tough round for him. The only positive thing for the Caesarians is that with Glenn gone, Andres can now use his recruiting ability. He’s already IDed some Populares, so if he can survive the coming lynch phase, he might recover from this.

As for the Pompeians, while tonight was a success for them, I think they may have done themselves serious harm here. The kill choices combined with the nature of the propaganda statement may well stand out as a flashing arrow indicating that the mafioso are newer players. Unless the Pompeians get more organized and use less blunt force, they may hand themselves to the Senate. At this point, their greatest advantage is numbers and a lack of attention in the thread due to lurking.

Caius and Jolt investigate YLC and pevergreen. They won’t be able to guide the town to anything useful in the next day phase.

(Note: On the day of Night 3, I woke up feeling horrible after having a sore throat for several days. I called in sick and suffered through the day. If there are any errors in the Night 3 write-up or results PMs, it’s because I was running a 102 degree fever for part of the day.)

Day 3:

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Interesting, the early voting and discussion is not what I expected. The first bandwagon is on AggonyDuck because Andres named him as one of the Pompeians in his propaganda. Very interesting, and I think the first vindication of the propaganda ability. It may indeed be useful beyond the amusement value.

Amazingly, in the Republic QT thread the three dedicated Republicans (Jolt, Caius, and Ichigo) think the hit on Andres clears him, partially due to the nature of the write-up. Little do they know that I long ago decided to take a page from Andres’ book and make them indecipherable when it matters. Mafioso use gladii in their kills and townies use pugii. Beyond that, I am not giving any easy hints. With so many different types of protection in this game (lictors, mafia protection, townie groups, special abilities) it is my intention to make them all look as close as possible, while still fitting into the storyline. Townie kill/protect groups will be noted by reference to the number of people, but nothing beyond that. The Republic group also thinks Andres was attacked by Senators, which ignores my reference to gladii, which I suppose has not been noticed yet. In any case, this is looking very favorable for Andres to survive this lynch phase, which means he’ll get his shot at recruiting a new partner.

AggonyDuck is getting a lot of flak, a lot of it expertly manufactured by Andres. Amazingly, the more that comes out, the more squeaky clean Andres looks. The recently disclosed fact that he has been investigating every night since the beginning with another Senator is a massive boost to his innocence rating, since it means he wasn’t responsible for any of the kills. Andres’ long-term planning is paying off big-time here, and is the perfect example of why he is an excellent player. He seems to have gained the trust of the town, which is no small feat in a game like this. Now he just has to hope the Pompeians don’t knock him off.

In any case, both mafia families had better hope that either Cicero or Cato is killed off soon. With the kills proceeding slower than I anticipated (note: it was theoretically possible for there to be 15 kills on the first night), their double investigations can plow through the rest of the players in relatively short order.

Wow, lots of information spilling out this round for anyone who cares to look for it. Multiple faction identities, GH’s role as Praetor, Cicero and Cato finally IDed, two special abilities revealed… interesting stuff.

Sasaki expertly pegs Andres’ actions for exactly what they are. A mini bandwagon begins until AggonyDuck, of all people, comes to the rescue. The attention on Andres then dissolves and goes all over the place before it finally rests on Tiberius of the Drake. Interestingly, Drizzt posts (part of) his first night results on Beskar. This includes the “side entrance” bit which I only put in Dictator results. I wonder if Andres will notice that…

Night 4:

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Some interesting convergence tonight. The Pompeians are being sensible and taking advantage of yesterday’s glut of information. They get their orders in early (!) with a double kill on GH to get around his lictors and an investigation of Ichigo, presumably to check on whether they need to kill him or not after last night’s failure. Note that while Ichigo can no longer win with the Pompeians, the Pompeians still don’t need to kill him to win themselves. Drizzt also submits another propaganda note, this one with some actual true information in it. The Senate will go nuts over this one, trying to determine whether to believe it or not. All in all, the Pompeians are looking much more organized tonight, and for this reason their stock just rose several points in my mind. If they can kill off at least one of the Orators before any of them are found, they’ll be in a good position for a victory. They’re already leading 6 to 2 in the faction death count, including both Caesarian Legates, and are about to off one of the Praetors.

Andres appears to be working in a protection group with other people, but he submits orders to recruit GH. This is risky because if the others think he’s with them, they’ll get a notice that the orders weren’t in properly. Not that it matters, since GH is going to die anyway. And… Chaotix is blocking Andres, which doubly foils his plans; he just cannot catch a break. Sasaki appears to be assembling a group to kill Chaotix. This is an interesting development in itself, as the evidence on Chaotix is minimal at best. I wonder what Sasaki’s plan is… (other than to go Mafioso at the end, obviously!)

The most interesting bit, however, is that there is another group assembling to protect Chaotix. This includes 2 of the replacement players, ATPG and Curio, plus split. More interestingly, split is also listed in the kill Chaotix group. Split has not yet submitted orders, so I cannot tell where this is going, but it’s likely to be a hot night in Caesar’s villa one way or another!

And… Chaotix changes his order to block GH instead. Gotta redo his death writeup now, since it will have to show Cleo. I just realized that Cleopatra’s block ability should technically block Consuls/Praetors from protecting themselves. This goes against the spirit of the role though, so I will allow self-protection by Consuls/Praetors to remain intact when visited by Cleo. Not that it will help GH though. If the attack orders on Chaotix don’t come in completely, I’ll just show him being attacked out in the streets, which will not expose him as Cleo. Same if both the attack and the protection orders are successfully submitted, though that seems impossible since split is on both. However, if the attack orders are successfully submitted and the defense orders are not, Chaotix will only survive because of GH’s lictors, so the write-up will have to show him at GH’s villa. So, for Chaotix’s sake, he had better hope that attacking Senator group is not well organized.

Split submits orders to kill Chaotix. To make things even more bizarre, TheFlax submits orders to have his Lictors protect Chaotix. This cannot be a coincidence, there’s too many people working on this Chaotix thing for that to be the case, but I can’t quite see what the purpose of this is. Why attack and protect the same person? Just to see what kind of write-up I will produce? Well, if that’s what they want, they’ll get something interesting…

Jolt decides to investigate GH. Seriously, what are the odds of this?

Day 4:

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Night 5

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Day 5:

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Night 6:

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Day 6:

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Night 7:

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Day 7:

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Night 8:

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The Republicans don’t appear to be even bothering with trying to hold the senator groups together. This could be a mistake, as it’s likely going to make it easy for the mafia teams to pull off kills without being detected. The only saving grace for the Republicans is that the Pompeains are down to 1 player and will have to spend a night recruiting before they can cause any serious damage. For the Caesarians, tonight is the perfect time to make a double kill.

In the Republic QT, Jolt is pushing for an investigation of Tratorix. If he actually goes through with it, he may well win the MVP award for this game. He and Sasaki combined have been a massive help to the Republic victory. At the same time, he also suggests the possibility of making a public reveal as Cicero. This would be an unmitigated disaster, as he would certainly be killed almost immediately. He thinks both mafia families are nearly eliminated and doesn’t realize that they can both recruit.

Caius submits orders to investigate Tratorix. Unless Tratorix recruits tonight, the Pompeians may be making an early exit from the game. Tratorix submits orders to kill GSC. That’s one less Populares, but it is not likely to help the Pompeians at all, since Tratorix will certainly be lynched now before he can recruit.

As expected, despite Sasaki’s in-thread orders, the senator groups have essentially dispersed. The only orders received are from ATPG and AggonyDuck to attack khan and from Ignoramus to protect everyone. The Caesarians are going for a double hit on ATPG tonight, which is wise as it will finally dissolve the last bit of the Senate group. They’re obviously cautious about protection, though in this case it is overkill. They’re going to have to up their kill rate soon or they will likely be found by the Orators before they can kill off all the Optimates. One per night isn’t going to cut it.

With 25 minutes left in the night, Caius changes his investigation to ‘khaan. A huge mistake, and Tratorix dodges a bullet tonight. Instead of eliminating the Pompeians completely during the day, another innocent is likely to be lynched instead.

Day 8:

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Night 9:

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Day 9:

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Night 10:

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The Republic QT is showing an interesting aspect of the Iskander/john plan that I hadn’t considered: by openly proclaiming their partisan nature and saying they are investigating together, they get a free ride to kill at night without the Republican group thinking they’re backing out of groups. A ballsy play, but startlingly effective so far; the Republicans are completely ignoring them, even Sasaki who was on their case earlier in the game. Can these two pull off a massive come-from-behind win?

Ignoramus uses his special ability and switches from Optimates to Populares. A wise choice on his part, and one less person the Caesarians need to kill to win. johnhughthom will get a PM saying that someone has switched factions. Though it won’t name the person, it shouldn’t be too hard for him to figure out who it was given the info that has been disclosed about Ignoramus previously. As of this moment, the Caesarians only need to kill off 6 more to win. Tonight they are doing a double hit on AggonyDuck, which will reduce the Optimates to 5.

LG attempts to arrange a townie hit on split to narrow down the suspects. Greyblades balks publicly and accuses LG of being a mafioso. This kind of conflict within the townies was what I was hoping to create with this game. It adds an extra dimension of strategy to being a townie which is not normally present in most mafia games. I definitely feel like the current situation is ramping up the tension a bit, and it’s a shame it didn’t come earlier. This makes me think that some of the stuff that I stripped out from the 30 Years War game concept would work well. Perhaps it will be worth doing a second game afterall.

LG’s assaults eventually convince Greyblades to participate in the vigilante group, apparently to save his own skin. The group will fail because split has his villa and is inactive. This will probably be seen as reason to lynch him tomorrow. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Beefy and Khazaar are investigating together, apparently with LG’s approval, which is interesting.

The summary of this all is that the Republicans have managed to re-assemble their groups and think they have a handle on everything. They are wrong on all their top suspects, but it’s going to take them some time to realize this. The game will probably turn on whether they turn on john and Iskander immediately after their current suspects are disposed of or cleared. john and iskander really need to be killing 2 per night. Their caution on AggonyDuck is understandable, but unwise. LG has said he was a Consul so many times that they must have seen it by now. LG is the obvious target for a double hit, not Aggony. Plus, LG is leading the townie group. I think john and Iskander are making a mistake by leaving him alive and wasting a double hit on Aggony.

Day 10:

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As expected, split gets a lot of heat for surviving the attack. However, that’s not the major development. The big news is that john and Iskander sent a fake result on an investigation of AggonyDuck to LG. They made a massive blunder here, because they named Aggony as a Populares. For anyone who cares to read the Night X write-up carefully, it IDs Aggony as an Optimates. That’s solid evidence that john and Iskander have fabricated their result, which is instant guilt at this point in the game. Eventually this will get out and that will seal their fates. The most unbelievable aspect of this blunder is that Andres has a REAL investigation result on Aggony from Night 1, which he presumably provided to john in his ‘last will.’ This mistake would never have been made with if they had checked their info a bit more carefully.

I am now comfortable predicting a solid Republican victory. I’m a bit sad to see the mafioso groups go down, but in the end the Republicans simply played a better game. Jolt and Caius have done a superb job. For every step back they’ve made, they’ve taken two steps forward. Good instincts resulted in good investigations. They wisely used their conversion ability to gain solid, trustworthy allies, and all the while they kept out of the public eye and remained alive. I am absolutely stunned that they have essentially survived the entire game without either of them being attacked once by anyone. They deserve to win, pure and simple.

john and Iskander are attempting to privately rally the Populares to eliminate the Optimates. Unfortunately, they continue to include the self-confessed Consul, LG, in their plans. Even if they persuade split and Greyblades, they will not have enough votes to do this through brute force. Of the 6 remaining non-mafioso Populares, only 4 have the option of winning by siding with Caesar. Thus, they are outnumbered 6 to 7 by those who need to defeat their plans in order to win. Those 7 also include the two vote switchers. They’re making a good effort, but the course of the game is against them. The continued survival of Cato and Cicero will be impossible for them to overcome. One will likely be lynched here, and the other vigilante killed during the night.

And cue the hold music again as the forums seize up for three days. Needless to say, this is annoying.

When it resumes, I give the phase several extra hours, which results in split getting a vote in for Beefy. There’s no point in holding the vote longer, because it’s never going to get any better than this for the Caesarians. Of the three no votes, Beefy is a guaranteed vote against Iskander to save his own neck, and Khazaar is a likely vote against Iskander since he’s Populares. While Ignoramus and Murat (abstaining) could theoretically go for a Beefy vote, Caius is also currently abstaining and if he gets online, he could make it impossible for Iskander to stay alive by voting for him and submitting another vote switch order. As I see it, Iskander is doomed no matter what, so I pull the trigger. Time to close this game out.

Night 11:

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Day 11:

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Concluding Remarks:

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The Republicans won through superior strategy and organization, pure and simple. As I predicted in the beginning, the Republic victory depended entirely on whether Jolt and Caius were able to join up and survive for a while. They did not disappoint, meeting up by the second day and operating together from there on out. They investigated wisely, IDing 3 of the 6 starting Mafioso by that method and using their vote switching abilities very well to get their targets lynched. Jolt in particular deserves the MVP award for this game for his inspired and consistent push to investigate atheotes and Tratorix. No one else was suspicious of them, and Jolt even had to buck the skeptical Sasaki to get it done.

Speaking of Sasaki, the Republicans also made incredibly good use of the conversion ability. They ended up converting both Consuls, one Praetor, and Sasaki. This allowed them to form a trustworthy group to direct the town discussion without exposing themselves. It also guaranteed them protection if needed, though it turned out to be unnecessary, since neither were ever attacked. Sasaki deserves the runner-up MVP award. His skill in organizing the town was instrumental in pinning down the mafia and preventing them from operating. The multiple groups attacking and protecting the same targets was inspired, and Sasaki’s instincts alone were responsible for the lynch of Drizzt. LittleGrizzly wasn’t able to hold Sasaki’s townie groups together, but he performed very well as the mouthpiece for the Orators. With Sasaki’s blessing, he was able to continue covering for them through the end of the game.

The Pompeians seem to have been undone by their lack of experience. In the first few phases, they seemed disorganized and without any long-term strategy. This eventually started to appear and they grew more sophisticated, but by that point Drizzt was oozing classic mafia tells which resulted in his lynch. Tratorix and atheotes did well as lurkers for a bit, and they did both mafia groups a huge favor by going after Sasaki… luckily on a night when GSC used his one-time kill on Sasaki as well. However, after atheotes was lynched Tratorix made major blunders by spending the next 2 nights killing solo and protecting in a group respectively. He should have been recruiting immediately and his failure to do so doomed not only the Pompeians, but probably also the Caesarians. If an Optimates Senator had been converted, the final stages of the game would probably have been far more difficult for the Republicans to figure out.

The Caesarians were undone mainly by pure bad luck. Andres did a superb job laying the ground work for a long-term strategy, but Glenn’s failure to ever even pick up his role PM was a major blow. Then navarro was spotted by a seemingly random investigation and went out on Day 2. This made Andres essentially a solo mafia family. He managed to get things together, but then more bad luck followed with the Pompeians coincidentally hitting him and Glenn on the same night. Glenn died 24 hours before his role would have been given to a replacement player, which would have greatly helped Andres. As if that wasn’t bad enough luck, Andres immediately submitted orders to recruit GH. This would have been a perfect move… except that GH was killed that night. Andres then turned to the only other person he knew was Populares (johnhughthom) for recruiting on the next night, which coincided with his death.

johnhughthom instantly went from Populares Senator to Caesarian Dictator because he became a Legate at the same time that Andres died, thus prompting the Legate promotion ability. john then immediately recruited Iskander, who he knew and trusted, and this popped the Caesarians right back into contention. Both players did a fabulous job concealing their activities and continuing with Andres’ style of propaganda posting, which convinced the Republicans that Caesar was still alive right through the end of the game. In the end, the Caesarians, like the Pompeians, were simply undone by the failure to take out either Caius or Jolt. The final nail in their coffin was the error of providing a fake investigation result to LG which showed Aggony as a Populares. This was a careless error, since they already knew from Andres’ investigation that he was Optimates. Since the write-up clearly showed Aggony as an Optimates, the Republic group instantly turned on them. Without this error they probably would have survived another round or two, and would have still had a shot at victory.

As noted in the beginning, this game was something of an experiment to see how well the split town system worked. I am satisfied with the results, though in hindsight I did a few things wrong. First, the Orator roles were a bit over-powered. True, things would have turned out very different if just one of them had been killed off early, but in the end they did operate as intended. The balance problem I saw was in the conversion ability. It was too powerful to allow the Orators to convert the Praetors and the Consuls. I intended those roles to be potential mafia-aligned doctors, and instead they became free bodyguards for the Orators. If I could redo the game, I would give the Orators only 2 conversions each, not 3, and limit them to plain Senators, with Praetors and Consuls immune. The Orators had plenty of power at their fingertips with the vote shifting ability: the doctor conversions were simply too much.

On the mafia side, I would have made a couple minor changes. First, I would let the mafia self-protect, like the Praetors and Consuls. Second, I would have allowed the recruitment ability to be used when 2 mafioso were still alive, instead of restricting it to when the Dictator was solo. Still, even if these changes had been made to the Orators and mafia roles, I do not think it would have changed the outcome in this game. Neither Jolt nor Caius were ever attacked, so their doctor conversions only provided them with extra votes in the Senate which would have been no different from a converted Senator.

The main disappointment I had was that nearly everyone remained focused on the Republic victory until very late in the game. In hindsight this makes sense, since going for a faction victory requires survival until late game, so people aren’t going to start looking at that until they think they may live through the end. There are several aspects of the 30 Years War draft that I cut out of Rubicon which would likely have resulted in factional splits occurring far earlier in the game. I will not talk about some of these since I do plan on running the 30 Years game eventually, but one thing that will help will be allowing at least some ‘townie’ players to only be able to win by a faction victory after they are dead. In any case, Rubicon was just the test-run, I think the real version will be more interesting. Now I just need to figure out how to get 50-60 players and how to prevent the forum from imploding multiple times while I host.

(Thanks to Andres for saying several times that this thing is easier to produce when you write it while the game is going rather than after it is done.)

**Cultured Drizzt fan** · 06-10-2009, 00:48

really, Minis death was a complete mistake. Tratorix sent in the wrong order and we just didnt have the time to stop it. after that we started getting more organized but it wasn't till around night 4 we started really getting in the swing of things, I thought we really had a chance when we killed GH and I noticed optimates were starting to outnumber our opponents. but I underestimated just how scummy I looked to everyone. and I think it is safe to say that after I weas dead we really didn't have a chance. with Tratorix in a protection group he never had a chance to replenish our numbers. I never presumed that Cato and Cicero could be a completely different faction......

**johnhughthom** · 06-10-2009, 00:55

Originally Posted by Cultured Drizzt fan

I never presumed that Cato and Cicero could be a completely different faction......

Never crossed my mind either..

**Beskar** · 06-10-2009, 00:56

I can't believe I was working with Caesar and Pompey.

**Cultured Drizzt fan** · 06-10-2009, 00:59

ironic isn't it? I just wish I had known just how mafia like I was looking to everyone, I thought I was playing a good game and my lynch was a fluke..... ahh well hindsight's 20/20

I assumed the vote switchers would be an annoyance, not a deadly threat....

I will eagerly await any other games like this, it really was a great experience

**TinCow** · 06-10-2009, 01:28

Originally Posted by Cultured Drizzt fan

really, Minis death was a complete mistake. Tratorix sent in the wrong order and we just didnt have the time to stop it. after that we started getting more organized but it wasn't till around night 4 we started really getting in the swing of things, I thought we really had a chance when we killed GH and I noticed optimates were starting to outnumber our opponents. but I underestimated just how scummy I looked to everyone. and I think it is safe to say that after I weas dead we really didn't have a chance. with Tratorix in a protection group he never had a chance to replenish our numbers.

I actually thought you had a very good chance at that point. Tratorix and atheotes were completely under the radar. The only person who suspected them at all was Jolt, it just so happened that he had the ability to do a proper investigation to validate his suspicions.

I never presumed that Cato and Cicero could be a completely different faction......

When the discussion about Cicero's faction got serious in the thread, I did drop a hint about it with the next quote I posted:

“Do not recklessly and presumptuously assume something to be true.”
- Marcus Tullius Cicero

Other people noted that Cicero in reality was pretty much a moderate who could have gone either way. As I noted in the commentary, it was just something I had to do for play balance issues. It's the only blatant historical inaccuracy I made.

**Cultured Drizzt fan** · 06-10-2009, 01:29

Maybe I just thought So, after my death I really had no idea what was going on....

**Iskander 3.1** · 06-10-2009, 01:29

Excellent game everyone! Sasaki, it was a pleasure being your rival and I look forward to more opportunities here in the gameroom. John, I'm glad we ended up being teammates and we showed everyone just how far a couple of newbies can go.

If I could re-do anything, I think I would have started recruiting people for a populares victory sooner. For those of you who don't know, I was PMing people saying that with only Caesar still alive, a Republic victory would put all Populares senators in danger, but if we secretly stood together we could lynch the Optimates without giving any reason in the forum. Unfortunately by the time I had gotten around to it, Sasaki had figured John and myself out.

**Iskander 3.1** · 06-10-2009, 01:39

By the way LG, you played your part well! I thought you were Populares through and through. And Sasaki: ask TinCow, the night I failed to show up was indeed a mistake on my part, especially since I wasn't a mafioso at that point :)

**Jolt** · 06-10-2009, 02:28

VICTORY!!!!!

For the first time, I win a game and survive through it! I must thank TinCow for bestowing me with the MVP, and to be honest I spend an abnormal amount of time thinking through the game. Some days ago, I even recall dreaming of being Cicero and seating with Cato in a villa wondering where Caesar was... As I was coming back home today (Long train trip), I was basically mentally looking over who could have I missed that could be Pompey and Caesar.

Due to the last night's quote, who I believed were small hints, especially directed at me (Dunno why. Most quotes just seemed like TinCow was trying to say something to my line of thought), “It is when fortune is the most propitious that she is least to be trusted.”, I was getting increasingly nervous and suspicious of my very own Republican group, thinking through TinCow's quote that someone in our Congregation of Heroes was recruited by the Mafia. It continued as I asked Caius for the Investigation PMs and all he provided were general sketches that MM and beefy were Senators. I began distrusting my very own men, and had the game proceeded further, I'd probably turned to investigate at least Caius before turning back to the usual suspects.

I must also give congratulations to all who made part of our Congregation of Heroes, them being Caius, Ichigo, Sasaki, TheFlax and LG, and on a second note to YLC for having observer status on it. Caius was crucial as the counterpart to make sure we went through everyone swiftly and decisively. Sasaki was also instrumental in being our mouthpiece, and organizing the Senate groups to do our bidding. LG was later Sasaki's successor and crucial in infiltrating Isk and john, which meant their doom. Ichigo and TheFlax each also did their parts, Ichigo being our very first mouthpiece against navarro, and TheFlax faithfully protecting who we thought necessary, as well as providing the needed votes to cement the lynches we wanted.

On the hindsight, I created the Congregation of Heroes to be a place of absolute impossibility of infiltration, taking into account the large vulnerability of the townie networks that existed in The Settlement. Because of that, and of the recruitment which I was unaware Mafia could do, it was a tremendous risk to allow YLC to view our Congregation of Heroes, but in the end it payed as I laughed hard at the combined verbal onslaught of YLC and Sasaki on our suspects. :D

That being so, my shift of investigating "ordinary" suspects for lurkers (I get very angry when lurking Mafia win the game) proved to be a great boon for us, as I caught Tratorix and atheotes in a row, using our mouthpieces and my vote switching to crush them.

Also, another great asset of ours, as TinCow pointed out, was our methodical organization, which allowed us to better view who were the ones candidates for investigation, and who were not.

It was a tremendously satisfying game for me, no doubt.

Without further ado: Our Congregation of Heroes!

**LittleGrizzly** · 06-10-2009, 02:54

Glad to have played a small part in the victory, alot of the work was already done but i found something useful to do....

Good game everyone, big credit to the pro town guys!

**Askthepizzaguy** · 06-10-2009, 03:41

Spoiler Alert, click show to read:

TheFlax protecting Chaotix was orchestrated by me during my brief time alive. Split I believe was part of a group that was supposed to be protecting Chaotix, but I didn't trust that group at all. Not even slightly.

I honestly lost track of the game after I died, but my main purpose was served by attracting attention to myself and wasting two kills at once from the mafia. I also cleared someone with my investigation and I hoped that was useful. I sent a lot of information I had obtained privately to Sasaki.

I was disappointed in how often the senator groups fell apart. On the night that I was killed, nothing went right and I quite honestly gave up. I was relieved when I died because I had joined late as a replacement and I seriously had little idea what was going on, so all I did was gather info and be a cog in the machine. I am grateful the Republic won, and I am seriously impressed by those who kept track of this crazy game and pushed the Republic to victory.

I might have done better if I was a player from the beginning, but I just could not catch up and I did the best I could.

lol

**Tratorix** · 06-10-2009, 04:11

Originally Posted by TinCow

I actually thought you had a very good chance at that point. Tratorix and atheotes were completely under the radar. The only person who suspected them at all was Jolt, it just so happened that he had the ability to do a proper investigation to validate his suspicions.

We would have done it too, if it wasn't for that meddling Jolt and his investigations. Honestly, after atheotes died I was hoping to lay low and recruit after it was assumed the Pompeians were all dead. It never occurred to me that Cicero and Cato might have the ability to investigate as well as vote switch. Though I guess we did better than I thought, as we managed to kill several Caesarians without even intending to.

Anyways, GG to the town in general and Sasaki, Jolt and Caius in particular. Sasaki did an excellent job webbing up our night actions, quite irritating. As for Caius and Jolt, great job on mobilizing the town from behind the scenes. Never suspected either of you might have an important role.

Lastly, my apologies to atheotes and CDF. My play in the late game was severely lacking, especially since I was supposed to be the experienced member of the group. Thanks, TinCow for organizing an entertaining game.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read:

**Splitpersonality** · 06-10-2009, 04:41

ATPG: As you said I was part of Sasaki's group to kill Chaotix, thankfully he was protected and I promptly vowed to protect him.

I failed later on forgetting my orders.

Oh hey, my role PM was real guys, look at all of you with egg on your faces now! :P

I really don't think I deserve a win in this (just me), I did a S**t job playiong town here, I hope everyone who died because of my clumsiness can really forgive me :(

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 06-10-2009, 06:38

Yes!!

I have to say, I had absolutely no idea the mafia could recruit. I think knowing that would actually have hurt us.

My strategy this game was to go after the players who weren't making much noise, since I find that I tend to overpursue the active players. Ironically this was part of the reason I backed off of andres. I did take his write up as evidence of innocence. Glad to see he was being a thorn in my side on purpose...

I killed W&F because he was lurking to much and trying to organize hit groups on the other faction. I figured I was going to die soon anyway.

Had no idea the mafia could double kill from a single faction either...wow.

GSC, I'm coming for you next game.

I went after beefy whole hog a couple rounds ago because I'd remembered his group as being populares, which put them at the center of suspicion for caesar. But then I reread the pm and it said they were optimates...fortunately we got that one turned around before tratorix could recruit.

John and iskander slipped up a bit at the end, not checking to see that LG was optimates by virtue of being a consul (though this convinced me they were innocent for a while, mafia tend to be more paranoid), and not checking that aggonyduck had claimed optimates multiple times and was revealed as optimates in the writeup. Though TinCow, that was never major evidence for me, since I didn't think they would make such an error and thought it probable that LG had remembered the pm wrong (thinking of my own mixup). Of course, that's kind of silly...

The night Duck was killed though, only beefy, iskander, and john were not accounted for, and I considered beefy innocent by virtue of being optimates.

Had a lot of fun organizing the groups, tied up several mafia, had on act real suspicious in response (drizzt). Biggest benefit was possible jolt and theflax revealing when I pm'd them asking me to join, and LG letting slip that he wasn't an ordinary senator. That helped the townie group come together. Though I tried to get LG lynched first...

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 06-10-2009, 06:52

Originally Posted by Iskander 3.1

By the way LG, you played your part well! I thought you were Populares through and through. And Sasaki: ask TinCow, the night I failed to show up was indeed a mistake on my part, especially since I wasn't a mafioso at that point :)

You must admit, claiming you didn't know you had to include the names of your partners after having successfully appeared in two kills was a bit suspicious...

I think the main thing that prevented factionalism was that helping the dictators instead of the republic is fundamentally unappealing and feels a bit craven. I know at the start of the game I decided to ignore that option. Another factor was that you couldn't investigate unless you had another person, so you would have to basically confess that you were going for that option in order to make any progress. Also, the groups I set up prevented people from investigating.

Now, if being factional appeared less cowardly and I could have investigated on my own, I would have been tempted to organize hit groups on the enemy faction while protecting our own etc.

**Beskar** · 06-10-2009, 06:57

Sasaki is still not innocent.

**Askthepizzaguy** · 06-10-2009, 06:58

I actually decided to trust Sasaki this game, and I didn't get burned.

Yes, it is possible. :))

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 06-10-2009, 07:01

Originally Posted by Beskar

Sasaki is still not innocent.

Funny part of the game to me was when I thought you were accusing GeneralHankerchief so I quoted our pm convo to give you the support you wanted and it turned out you were accusing me :D

**johnhughthom** · 06-10-2009, 07:30

I learned an awful lot about playing mafia games from this, made quite a few mistakes during the game. The biggest thing I will take out of it for my next game is: "try not to attract Sasaki's attention".

**Khazaar** · 06-10-2009, 08:26

Excellent Game, very confusing with all that switching back and forth. I got very suspicious of Sasaki when we defended him when he asked and nothing happened and the next day (or night) one of our group was killed, that effectively ended my cooperation with the Sasaki team. Who would have guessed that it was indeed a killorder by Sasaki that offed Woads...

Anyway hats off to TinCan. This thread stands as an epic achievement to your oratory skill and level of organization.

Funnily enough I always wanted to join the Pompeiians because my role was so pro Pompeii that I couldn´t believe that I was Mafia from the beginning. I was Lucius Afranius (Afranius) who even fought Ceasar in Spain and was nurtured by Pompeii himself. I just never found a possibility to find and contact the faction safely although I did tell Beefy (who told me he was Optimates himself) I just want to win (no matter if it´s with the republic or not).

Anyway a win, yay!!!!

**Andres** · 06-10-2009, 09:27

We lost...

Very well played, town. You got yourself organised very well. The conversion thing certainly helped, as it gave town a few confirmed innocents that weren't in a position to backstab or change sides. I never took that into account.

That explains why the planted seeds of suspicion against LittleGrizzly and Sasaki didn't want to grow.

Would anyone have fallen for my fake role pm?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read:

Originally Posted by TinCow

“Hatreds not vowed and concealed are to be feared more than those openly declared. ”
- Marcus Tullius Cicero

Publius Clodius Pulcher (Pulcher)
Senator
(Populares Faction)

Your notorious political career started in 68 BC when you served on your brother-in-law Lucullus' staff in Asia. You began your cursus honorum as quaestor in Sicily. After your return from Sicily in 61BC, you decided to renounce your rank of patrician in order to hold a tribunate of plebs. You got yourself adopted by a distant relative (a controversial adoption that didn't go unnoticed!). To avenge wrongs done to you in the past, you started to make legislation aimed at the destruction of your nemesis, Cicero (who destroyed your alibi at the time and was thus responsible for the scandal). You introduced a law threatening to exile anyone who ever executed a Roman citizen without a trial. Cicero, who had been responsible for the execution of members of the Catiline conspiracy, without trial, was clearly the intended target of this law. Due to this law, and lack of support from his own allies, Cicero was forced to go in exile to Thessalonica in 58 BC. It didn't take too long for you to organise the destruction or confiscation of Cicero's properties.
In 56 BC, you took the next step on the cursus honorum and held the office of aedile.

Victory Conditions:
(1) Eliminate all Caesarians and Pompeians. You will be victorious even if you are dead if this goal is met.

OR

(2) Survive and eliminate all Populares Faction Members, including Caesarians.

Role Description:
Night Actions:
(1) With 1 other Senator, you can investigate one player per night. Successful investigations will show the target's faction.
(2) With 2 other Senators, you can attempt to protect one player per night. Any player you protect will be very difficult to kill that night.
(3) With 3 other Senators, you can attempt to kill one player per night.

Special Ability:
(1) Pugio: for many years now, you have been trying to destroy Cicero. You have humiliated him through and through but you are not yet satisfied. You have a dagger that once belonged to Cicero and you plan to put it to good use. If you manage to find Cicero, you can give the dagger to one of your clients who will plunge it into his heart during the night. You may kill alone once. You don't have room for mistakes, since this is a one time only ability. However, if your attack fails, you will not have lost the ability.

EDIT: And thanks for hosting TinCow

Had a lot of bad luck in the first part of the game, but I had a lot of fun nonetheless. Kudos to johnhughthom and Iskander 3.1. You guys did very well but town was too well organised this time.

**Captain Blackadder** · 06-10-2009, 09:31

Nope the victory condition is wrong it should say for part two eleminate all optimites including the pompians and not the other way around.

**Andres** · 06-10-2009, 09:32

Originally Posted by Captain Blackadder

Nope the victory condition is wrong it should say for part two eleminate all optimites including the pompians and not the other way around.

Gah!

**Askthepizzaguy** · 06-10-2009, 10:02

I had noticed that Andres was acting out of character. Since he was dead I didn't feel the need to accuse him, but in all honesty he was acting like he usually does when he's dead mafia, with slight variations. He's very challenging... almost extremely so... against anything you say.

Lots of seeds of self-doubt. However I was already confused, doubting myself, and I knew I was town and that his behavior matched previous examples of dead mafia from him.

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

Was Andres ever proven innocent? Because I smell an Andres bluff.

The more he talked, the more I grew convinced of it.

**TinCow** · 06-10-2009, 11:57

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

I think the main thing that prevented factionalism was that helping the dictators instead of the republic is fundamentally unappealing and feels a bit craven. I know at the start of the game I decided to ignore that option. Another factor was that you couldn't investigate unless you had another person, so you would have to basically confess that you were going for that option in order to make any progress. Also, the groups I set up prevented people from investigating.

Now, if being factional appeared less cowardly and I could have investigated on my own, I would have been tempted to organize hit groups on the enemy faction while protecting our own etc.

Some of the Senator abilities were aimed at encouraging this. First, there was the Amicitia pairs, which were essentially same-faction masons. Both of these pairs immediately started investigating together from night 1, which is what I expected them to do. From there, it wouldn't have been hard to go for a faction victory. The Populares pair obviously did end up aiding the Caesarians, though not in the way I anticipated. The Optimates pair never had a chance because mini was killed on Night 1, leaving w&f essentially as a normal townie.

The Gravitas ability never got properly used either. I intended it as a way for ambitious Senators to either help their faction or attempt to infiltrate it. However, the only time it was ever used was when Cronos Impera asked Pompey to help him get Drizzt lynched. Obviously that wasn't likely to get positive results. everyone never used his ability to contact Caesar at all.

I agree though that changes need to be made to make the faction-aligned victories more plausible. I think the last couple phases when factionalism started to be an issue were some of the most interesting in the game, so I want to make it an easier option to pursue. I've got a lot ideas rolling around in my head, and I'm sure many will make it into the next version of the game.

**Greyblades** · 06-10-2009, 12:24

I cant say I am particually surprised that one of the group was a mafia.

Sorry about being so singleminded about you being mafia beefy.

**LittleGrizzly** · 06-10-2009, 17:26

Forgot to say this....

Thanks for the game TinCow. Really enjoyed it!!

Ohh and apologies to split and grey for attempting to get you killed at various points!

**atheotes** · 06-10-2009, 18:14

Great game TinCow and wellp layed town... Congratulations.

This game was massive...During the first part i was not able to follow due to RL and then i couldnt really get into the swing of things... sorry abt that CDF and Tratorix

We wanted to take out Sasaki early hoping that he was alone in directing the townie groups and had not yet shared the information he had gathered.

**Chaotix** · 06-10-2009, 18:53

Awesome game, TinCow!

Although I have to admit it was kind of annoying being lynched by the town after deciding it would be a better idea to help the Republic rather than one of the Dictators. Not that I couldn't have expected it though, after claiming a neutral role.

In hindsight, it would have been much easier to have never revealed myself until necessary- I wound up revealing to YLC on Night 3 as soon as I believed him to be a Consul, and then I also revealed to Sasaki because he was believed to be mafia at one point.

Although, I have to say, playing the game the way I did was much more fun. Night 4 in particular was crazy- split told me that Sasaki was going to kill me, so I scrambled to block the one Praetor/Consul role I knew for certain (GH). Then I also had help from ATPG, who asked TheFlax to protect me as well. That phase was nuts.

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