Quote Originally Posted by Sarmatian View Post
Cold War ended a long time ago, mate, world's a much different place nowadays. Russian desire not to be surrounded by NATO is a perfectly sensible and legitimate one. On the other hand, Russia is a threat as much as NATO makes it.

NATO, or US if you will, and Russia need to have good relations. The alternative to pursuing that course is taking actions that further diminish power and influence of Russia. That may or may not work, and even if it does, it will certainly provoke Russia. What makes it even more complicated is that it is not just US-Russia game, it involves a lot of us in between.

You can poke the bear only to an extent. If you do it too much, it will react. So, one course takes you to an angry bear, the other one to a cuddly bear. Makes it perfectly clear to me which one should be taken, even if it slower, longer and generally more difficult path (which I don't think it is, btw)
You missed my central point both countries interests conflict with the others long term interest

I also acknowledged straight off in my post that not wanting to be surrounded was Moscows central plan.

US Russian relations are still going to be based on mutual distrust which is kept in bounds as it always has been by mutual annihilation.

Your assertation that you can only poke the Bear so long works both ways Russia can only play at the bully as long as it has a big stick and it can only afford the stick by selling oil and gas to Europe. Russia may get some short term advantages by following these plans but eventually the bullied gets fed up calls the bluff and finds it was all just bluster. Hence the real reason for intervention in Georgia inserting complient governments in the region prevents all sorts of long term pipeline projects etc.

The Cold War may be over but the politics will as always be about the cash as it always really has been.