Europe

[gaelic cowboy]

I am guessing this is government debt though, right? While not merge all the debt into the national bank (for example, Bank of Ireland and Bank of Spain), and where there is interest involved, make the required adjustments, to cancel out the lessers debt.

This has happened already the Government is now the full owner of Anglo Irish Bank this bank is the epitome of the credit crisis the mention of it drives people into a frenzy of rage here. Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Bank are having there toxic debt taken off them by NAMA and they will recieve cash injections too if they require it which is likely. However thay have been given till the backend as we call it here to come up with there own money so they will likely sell prized banking assets in US, Uk and Europe.

[Furunculus]

that is a little different to arranging a debt swap with other nations.......

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

anyway, excellent article on debt in the eurozone:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...692666,00.html

[Beskar]

anyway, excellent article on debt in the eurozone:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...692666,00.html

[Vladimir]

Something about that guy behind him makes that hilarious.

[Furunculus]

Britain to help bail out the eurozone, how awesome, i thought we had enough problems of our own:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...euro-deal.html

Alistair Darling has agreed to consult directly with George Osborne and Vince Cable as European leaders looked poised to push through a new multi-billion pound bail-out fund part-financed by British taxpayers.

By Edmund Conway and Bruno Waterfield
Published: 10:08PM BST 08 May 2010

Mr Darling, who is still officially Chancellor of the Exchequer, will represent Britain at an extraordinary meeting of European finance ministers in Brussels today, slated to adopt far-reaching new powers for the Commission and its fellow bodies.

The meeting is the first major policy test for the hung parliament, coming with Britain in limbo between two governments. In a sign of the highly unusual nature of the situation, the Chancellor has privately committed to consulting before the meeting with his counterparts in the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

However, despite the likelihood that Labour will be ejected from Downing Street imminently, Mr Darling will have the final say over Britain's vote on participation in the new scheme.

The proposal, tabled by Nicolas Sarkozy in an emergency meeting late on Friday night, will involve the creation of a €60bn "European stabilisation mechanism" designed to provide bail-out support for countries which may face similar strain to Greece in the coming months.

It is thought to be focused particularly on Spain and Portugal, both of whose leaders fear an assault by "bond vigilantes" in the market who have scented weakness within the eurozone. The plan will have fiscal implication for all European Union countries, including the UK. The key element is an extension of an existing bail-out package, already used to support Hungary and Latvia.

This involves extending an already-existing Lisbon Treaty clause originally designed to provide cash for economies hit by natural disasters. Under this, the European Commission will borrow directly from markets, with its own finances guaranteed by EU nations – something which would leave the UK public finances exposed if a country fails to repay the loan. It could also impact the UK's credit rating.

Another plan being considered is to create a permanent continent-wide equivalent of the International Monetary Fund. This proposal is being lobbied for energetically in Brussels by, among others, Mr Sarkozy and Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who is understood to have called Gordon Brown late on Friday to urge him to help it through the summit. He warned that British banks were also vulnerable to European financial turmoil.

The first element could be rushed through the summit without British approval, because the qualified majority voting system means Britain cannot strike down a plan that has the support of other major European nations. The second more far-reaching element may have to be passed unanimously by all European Union members.

The current Labour Government's position is understood to be against the creation of the European Monetary Fund. However, with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats having yet to arrange a coalition or co-operation government, they can do little but lobby Mr Darling on their position over the Fund.

The sticking point goes to the heart of the controversy over a prospective Con-Lib coalition, since while the Tories oppose further European integration and exposure, the EMF could well be an institution of which the Lib Dems would approve.

Representatives from either party were unwilling to comment last night. The plan, which was only expected to be entirely finalised by lunchtime today, in time for the ministers’ arrival in the Belgian capital, must be completed in time for markets opening on Monday morning, according to Mr Sarkozy.

Traders are preparing for an extremely nervy start to the week. With the Conservatives having confirmed that there is unlikely to be a coalition formed before then, and economists expect further lurches in the pound when foreign exchange trading resumes in Australia this evening.

Attention is likely to focus on the Debt Management Office’s next auction of government bonds – a £2.25bn offering of mid-range debt on Tuesday.

The Treasury is still working under its pre-election “purdah” regime, which means the department is working on a non-political basis until the new government is formed, and both Mr Osborne and Mr Cable are briefed on all matters of economic importance.

However, under the British constitutional system, Mr Darling can carry on as Chancellor until the Queen forms a new Government. The uncomfortable situation was tested on Friday, when the US Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, called an emergency teleconference with other G7 finance ministers – something about which the would-be Chancellors were only consulted on by the permanent secretary at the Treasury, Nick Macpherson.

On the other hand, the opportunity for Cameron to bargain for the return of EU competences that I predicted is fast approaching, is all it requires is a tory administration in power to ask for those competences back, as opposed to Lab/Lib who will roll over and permit an EMF with no price-tag attached.

[gaelic cowboy]

To be honest I cant imagine the City of London would really be delighted about a default of the weak eurozone PIIGS all that interbank lending would be wiped out and Britain is in enough trouble as it is.

[Furunculus]

leverage is leverage, the question of whether the politicians have got the balls to employ it is another matter entirely.

to turn the question around; is the eurozone willing to watch the economies implode just to stop Cameron achieving the following:

4) Opt out from the charter of fundamental rights
5) Return of powers over criminal justice
6) Repatriation of control over social and employment legislation

well..........?

[Beskar]

is Cameron willing to get the eternal resentment from Britain's close European allies by black-mailing them on a matter which could see their economies implode, including severely harm our own.

If Cameron is smart, he will grease the wheels just right, as in, time-table proposed reviews and amendments. He coo-operates with the EU on this matter, which makes the EU in-debt to Britain along with a few other countries which Cameron could work with. By time-tabling the review, if EU pulls out of it and tries to betray Britain and the countries who he gets to co-operate with him, it gives David Cameron massive leverage on any future plans of the EU with full backing of the population. The EU would play right into Cameron's hands, and like that, he can turn it upside down.

Now, that is how you would do it. You don't kick a wounded animal like you are proposing, it will all blow up in Cameron's face.

In otherwords, Cameron should not make us look like the of the EU for a cheap gain. Britain needs to get the moral high-ground and support first then they could slam-dunk the EU because if the EU attempts to backstab Britain, it makes them look like the .

[gaelic cowboy]

@ Furunculus your question is silly you would sink the euro for something Cameron will get anyway at the next euro conference when he becomes Prime Minister

[Furunculus]

Now, that is how you would do it. You don't kick a wounded animal like you are proposing, it will all blow up in Cameron's face.

funny, the British electorate might say the same thing.

first principles; Cameron was elected on a platform to enact those modest changes, and we are now underwriting £13b of bad eurozone debt.

if we want the following:
4) Opt out from the charter of fundamental rights
5) Return of powers over criminal justice
6) Repatriation of control over social and employment legislation

then we will bloody well have it. it can be done politely, or it can be done otherwise, the choice is up to the EU, and the blame lies with the EU if they opt for the ugly route.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

i voted for the following changes:

1) The referendum lock
2) A United Kingdom sovereignty bill
3) A guaranteed say for MP’s if Ministers want the EU to extend its powers
4) Opt out from the charter of fundamental rights
5) Return of powers over criminal justice
6) Repatriation of control over social and employment legislation

I expect to see them done, as does 37% of the electorate, and the majority of tory MP's, and I am perfectly willing to see the UK go down in financial chaos from a collapsed government if they do not enact that exact plan.

[Furunculus]

@ Furunculus your question is silly you would sink the euro for something Cameron will get anyway at the next euro conference when he becomes Prime Minister

yeah right, the vast majority of euro nations will be delighted to exhume the corpse of Lisbon, and just let Cameron walk away with the changes he wants!

that is never going to happen, the last thing most continental nations will willingly allow is that traumatic event to be revisited, fortunately, we have leverage and they can choose to grant what we want willingly, as a thank you to a non-euro nation that has just chipped in £13b for their dodgy currency-zone, or we can do it the other way, but we will get what we want.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

i voted for the following changes:

1) The referendum lock
2) A United Kingdom sovereignty bill
3) A guaranteed say for MP’s if Ministers want the EU to extend its powers
4) Opt out from the charter of fundamental rights
5) Return of powers over criminal justice
6) Repatriation of control over social and employment legislation

I expect to see them done, as does 37% of the electorate, and the majority of tory MP's, and I am perfectly willing to see the UK go down in financial chaos from a collapsed government if they do not enact that exact plan.

[Banquo's Ghost]

One wonders whether Cameron will use the cover of a deal with the Liberals to move back into the mainstream EPP?

[Furunculus]

if he does then i want a coalition collapse tomorrow, PR next week, and an election next month in order to see the Conservatives destroyed as a power capable of majority government, and i'll laugh as UKIP MP's are elected all over the country.

the federasts will rue the unintended consequences of a supposedly positive change...........

[Louis VI the Fat]

One wonders whether Cameron will use the cover of a deal with the Liberals to move back into the mainstream EPP?

That would be interesting indeed. Cameron himself seems a bit embarrassed by the more hotheaded segment of his party.

[Louis VI the Fat]

a thank you to a non-euro nation that has just chipped in £13b for their dodgy currency-sone

You're not chipping in to save the currency of other nations. The UK is chipping in to save British banks and the stability of the financial system.

[Furunculus]

a problem caused by foolish european political ambitions that chose to admit undeserving nations to economic club for political reasons..............

[Louis VI the Fat]

a problem caused by foolish european political ambitions that chose to admit undeserving nations to economic club for political reasons..............

Political ambitions, certainly. Foolish? No. What's foolish about the wish to build a democratic and free Europe?

Greece had to be offered a viable democratic future as an alternative to Soviet backed communism or fascist colonels backed by the nation that had colonised and undermined Greece for two centuries for its own political ambition, the United Kingdom.

[Furunculus]

Political ambitions, certainly. Foolish? No. What's foolish about the wish to build a democratic and free Europe?

we had that before Marstrict.

it. was. foolish.

[Banquo's Ghost]

if he does then i want a coalition collapse tomorrow, PR next week, and an election next month in order to see the Conservatives destroyed as a power capable of majority government, and i'll laugh as UKIP MP's are elected all over the country...

A trifle apocalyptic, don't you think? A Con-Lib coalition would be able to influence the EPP and therefore EU policy much more effectively than being sidelined with the clowns and the freak show. UKIP also performed incredibly poorly in the election - even the Greens got an MP, and the BNP increased their share of the vote by more.

Federalism is being wrecked much more effectively by the euro crisis. Ideal time for the Conservatives to get into the mainstream and point this out. I expect Merkel is just begging for a partner to talk with on effective fiscal policy and more national controls.

[Furunculus]

A trifle apocalyptic, don't you think?

UKIP also performed incredibly poorly in the election - even the Greens got an MP, and the BNP increased their share of the vote by more.

Federalism is being wrecked much more effectively by the euro crisis. Ideal time for the Conservatives to get into the mainstream and point this out. I expect Merkel is just begging for a partner to talk with on effective fiscal policy and more national controls.

if they don't represent me then i want a party that will, in which case the tory's must be broken for me to get a better-fit right-wing party with access to power.

ukip performed poorly because right-wing eurosceptics got the frights from the possibility of a lib-lab coalition, seen in that light the conservatives are the better option even if they aren't skeptical enough. likewise, if the BNP did well that is an understandable response to the gillian duffy gaffe.

the EPP is a federalist party, with federalist DNA, the conservatives should not be in it if they want the support of the conservative electorate.

[gaelic cowboy]

I seem to remember Brown and co being immensely worried about the world crashing back in 2007-2008.

Were there not big meeting pledging loadsa money to the world economy which apparently was in a critical state.

Course now that the banks in London have got there way ie corporate socialism they are no longer in favour of bailouts to the international system. Hence there demand for the printing of money from ECB

[Beskar]

i voted for the following changes:

1) The referendum lock
2) A United Kingdom sovereignty bill
3) A guaranteed say for MP’s if Ministers want the EU to extend its powers
4) Opt out from the charter of fundamental rights
5) Return of powers over criminal justice
6) Repatriation of control over social and employment legislation

I expect to see them done, as does 37% of the electorate, and the majority of tory MP's, and I am perfectly willing to see the UK go down in financial chaos from a collapsed government if they do not enact that exact plan.

Some of those issues are far more complicated then they appear to be, even Nick Clegg raised up a lot of the policies, such as the European Arrest Warrants, etc. Just "pulling out" will remove Britain from these things.

Also, a complete referendum lock would be unwise. While certain things such as Lisbon should have gone to a referendum, not everything has to. It would be an utter pain to have a referendum everyweek because someone wanted to wipe their behind in a cubical because they are French and wanted to use British tax-payer funded toliet paper. All the minor changes should only be done by the parliament as it actually is. Only major changes such be done to referendum.

Though 56% wanted European reform, should as elected European President, etc.

[Furunculus]

leverage is leverage, if the cons choose to apply it then those aims are readily achievable.

[Furunculus]

some refreshing german honesty about the ideological nature of the EU:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...695919,00.html

And yet, many governments continue succumbing to the siren-song of pure pragmatism.

It isn't Europe that is in crisis. Rather, the problem is the way the elites are handling this unique, once-in-a-millennium project. Commonality, enthusiasm and far-reaching goals have all vanished from European Union summits. One wonders what observers are to think of meetings that are preceded by days of open bickering among governments; that result in last-minute compromises smacking of horse-trading; that produce gigantic bailout packages, the size of which are simply inconceivable.

The ongoing EU accession negotiations with Turkey provide an example: No one has been upfront with Ankara that the country's accession to the EU would weaken the bloc as an union of shared values; that it would make the EU even less efficient; that it would dilute the EU and transform it into an alliance of mere economic convenience. Instead, despite the slow progress on reforms in Turkey, it is business as usual when it comes to the accession negotiations. Soon, it will no longer be possible to say "no" without triggering bitter disappointment.

The EU needs more honesty.

let me get this straight, when we are talking about euro-sceptic electorate it is merely the siren song of pragmatism, but when we are talking about turkey we admit that they must be kept out because they aren't good enough for our glorious european master-race.

rock on!

[Subotan]

I'm a Europhile, and I support Turkey's (Eventual) ascension to the EU...

[Beskar]

Actually, Furunculus, wouldn't you not want Turkey in the EU?

As it will drive down wages due to the influx of immigrants from Turkey, plus, more immigrants.

[Vladimir]

As it will drive down wages due to the influx of immigrants from Turkey, plus, more immigrants.

Don't say that. You'll make Fragony panic.

[Furunculus]

actually, i positively support turkey in the EU.

for they have earned their place by defending the front line of 'western' europe from soviet ideology and aggression for fifty years.

for another, i have no 'european' ambitions, so i care for nothing if turkey doesn't fit into some peoples definition of an ideal europe.

finally, the fact the turkey is so different that it will destroy any notions of creating a european demos, which as long as we are in danger of being sucked into, i am all in favour of.




let us be clear; i don't give a damn about immigration, my sole interest is that representative government actually represents the will of its people, and unlimited immigration is something that has pissed off a lot of british people.

[Furunculus]

interesting op-ed looking at european disunion sentiment within france, germany and spain:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...o-survive.html

it rather confirms my belief that peoples are fundamentally different, and trying to centrally govern them is an absurdity that can only have two results; collapse or authoritarianism.

[Banquo's Ghost]

it rather confirms my belief that peoples are fundamentally different, and trying to centrally govern them is an absurdity that can only have two results; collapse or authoritarianism.

I can entirely understand your valid qualms about political unions, but your thesis above is patently untrue. Real world examples of cultures (as diverse as any in Europe) that have been successfully fused include the United Kingdom. When peoples' economic and political aims align so that a union makes them stronger, richer and more peaceable, they tend to accede to the idea. This has happened from the first tribes onwards.

Your nation state concept is merely one of the more enduring plateau points.