What if the 20th of July 1944 Hitler has been "terminated"

[Louis VI the Fat]

I don't think German industry could have ever outproduced that of the Soviets in raw output, but I do think it could have produced enough high quality weaponry to keep Germany in the war. Germany was well ahead of the Soviet Union in many key technologies (sometimes several generations), which then become combat multipliers.

I don't think this is correct.
Germany had a raw industrial output larger than the Soviet Union and Britain combined. Germany also had an industrial labour force twice the size of the SU.

The Nazis refused to change to a war economy until it was all but over - spoiled Germans wouldn't have it otherwise. The war was not supposed to cost anything, to lower living standards. This wasn't specific to the Nazis. For decades, Berlin policy had been that the population should not have to make any sacrifice in living standard for Germany's foreign agression - the bills are for the others: occupied territories, Jews, Americans, French and Belgians for WWI, future generations.



The Nazis were simply not all that good in making smart decisions, in using their favourable position.

For example, they made high-tech equipment that was useless in the extreme circumstances in Russia. Russians knew better - one must rely on cheap, simple and therefore sturdy equipment. These work, these are low maintanance, and these can be mass produced in great numbers. On top of this, Germany also managed to rely in crucial aspects on low-tech equipment, which rendered much of their fancier equipment useless. For example, a reliance on horses to tow this fancy equipment around, against mobile mechanised Russians.

Stalin was smart. Half his country occupied from the get go, and half of Europe fighting against him, and he still managed to win against the odds. Germany, the largest and most advanced economy in Europe, couldn't have fared worse if its decisions were made by chimpansees throwing darts.