The Dead Zone (or, BP and the Oil Well That Keeps on Giving)

[Lemur]

Haven't seen this subject in the Backroom yet, and it's probably the biggest story of the year.

First, and most important, what if there ain't jack-all we can do with a 5,000-foot deep oil spill?

Tomorrow BP is attempting the "top kill" maneuver -- pumping mud into the well. If it doesn't work, well ... then what? Junk shot? Top hat? Loony stuff like nukes? Relief wells will take months to drill and no one's sure if they'll work to relieve pressure. It's entirely possible, even likely, that we're going to be stuck helplessly watching as this well spews oil into the Gulf for years. Even if the flow were stopped tomorrow, the damage to marshes, coral, and marine life is done. The Gulf of Mexico will become an ecological and economic dead zone. There's no real way to undo it, no matter who's in charge.

I'm curious to see how the public's mood shifts once it becomes clear that we are powerless in the face of this thing. What if there's just nothing we can do? That's not a feeling to which Americans are accustomed.

This is pretty close to voicing my deepest fears. 5k feet is just shy of a mile, and a mile under the ocean is a supremely hostile working environment. I am appalled that shutoff valves were not required for these rigs, but what are we going to do? It's not as though we can fire up the time machine and undo Dick Cheney's energy task force. The damage is done, and it may keep on being done for some time.

It's not likely (but possible) that we have screwed up the Gulf of Mexico for a generation. Think on that for a moment.

[gaelic cowboy]

Kal from the economist had a poke at this BP/Iceland Volcano

[Beskar]

BP won't have as much money to fund the Climate Skeptic lobby anytime soon, that is for sure.

[gaelic cowboy]

It's not likely (but possible) that we have screwed up the Gulf of Mexico for a generation. Think on that for a moment.

Absolute disgrace and the level of shoulder shruging of the BP execs is sickening trying to pass the buck etc. I say it's time to break out granpappy's ole blunderbus and fire a couple of pellets up there rear ends.

[Vladimir]

I didn't think it was possible to despise both ends of an issue.

I'm seething with anger at both the administration and BP.

[Lemur]

Here's a video of an ABC reporter diving into the toxic stew of oil and detergent-based dispersants with one of the Cousteaus. Chilling stuff.

[gaelic cowboy]

I didn't think it was possible to despise both ends of an issue.

I'm seething with anger at both the administration and BP.

Yeah those idiots were far too chummy with the execs not a good idea I gues and the BP crowd were more interested in saving money at the risk of destroying fishing and tourism in the gulf.

[Vladimir]

Yeah those idiots were far too chummy with the execs not a good idea I gues and the BP crowd were more interested in saving money at the risk of destroying fishing and tourism in the gulf.

I'm beyond rationality at this point. I understand the administration needs to take an aggressive stance but all they've done is make jack-booted threats. The BP executive's testimony was pathetic.

All I really care about now are the people in the Gulf states affected by this.

[TinCow]

As far as I am aware, there is a guaranteed fix: drilling a new shaft into the existing one and using the new shaft to seal the old one. From what I read, BP started doing this almost immediately, but it takes upwards of 2 to 3 months to drill that deep, so it's a very slow solution. Everything they've tried so far is an attempt to stop the damage earlier, since 2 to 3 months of leakage is an ecological apocalypse.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Huh, we didn't even get to the end of the first post before the Bush blaming started. The other safety measures installed? The fact that Obama's been in charge for over a year? The fact that the acoustic trigger might not have stopped anything?

Meaningless! Let's look back to blame our political enemies with the benefit of hindsight!

Now, the rig will cost upwards of $500,000,000 to replace. I doubt that something that cost $500,000 led to intense lobbying to prevent that part from being required. And where does this claim come from? A trial lawyer suing BP, being interviewed by a very liberal talk show host. Is there any proof of this, any hard evidence?

Heck, it'd be better to look at how the rig was run, if warning signs were missed or alarms ignored like Texas City. Considering what happened, such human mistakes likely have more to do with the problem than one type of safety equipment. But that requires more than political finger pointing and blaming Bush and Cheney.

The point about people demanding the government simply do something is bemusing; as though Obama can, by stomping his foot and yelling, make it all better. Or that the government should push BP out of the way and do it themselves. Luckily the administration seems to know they couldn't even do it as well, though it makes me wonder just how out of touch some people can be.

Sadly, it does seem as though the damage could be very great. And in the end it's BP's fault, and we've got to make sure they properly compensate the people and governments hurt.

CR

[Lemur]

As far as I am aware, there is a guaranteed fix: drilling a new shaft into the existing one and using the new shaft to seal the old one.

From what I've read, even once the two-to-three months have elapsed, and the relief well is in place, there's no fixed timeline for when that will slow or stop the oil spill. Again, all of this is happening under a mile of water, so the logistics are just frightening.

The fact that the acoustic trigger might not have stopped anything?

Every deep sea rig in Norway has been required to use acoustic triggers since 1993. Do you think they would indulge in this expense for no reason whatsoever? I see we didn't pause to read the WSJ article, did we?

[Crazed Rabbit]

From what I've read, even once the two-to-three months have elapsed, and the relief well is in place, there's no fixed timeline for when that will slow or stop the oil spill. Again, all of this is happening under a mile of water, so the logistics are just frightening.

Hmm. As I've understood it, the relief well, once dug, will stop the spill. The problem is the time - and the difficulty of hitting the old pipeline with the new well.

Every deep sea rig in Norway has been required to use acoustic triggers since 1993. Do you think they would indulge in this expense for no reason whatsoever? I see we didn't pause to read the WSJ article, did we?

I did read the article; Britain does not require such devices. I'm not saying they're useless, only that how much they'd help, especially since the US wells in question already have back-up systems, is not clear. It shouldn't be viewed in hindsight as some sort of fix that would have solved everything. Also, I would've thought that tracking down your source for the Cheney allegations through multiple redirects had shown I did read your links.

CR

[Lemur]

I'm not saying they're useless, only that how much they'd help, especially since the US wells in question already have back-up systems, is not clear. It shouldn't be viewed in hindsight as some sort of fix that would have solved everything.

On the other hand, it's hard to look at another failsafe system that is already in use by major oil-producing nations and not feel a little wistful, especially staring in the face of the biggest ecological disaster in a long, long time. This sort of quote really grates:

A 2001 report from the International Association of Drilling Contractors said "significant doubts remain in regard to the ability of this type of system to provide a reliable emergency back-up control system during an actual well flowing incident."

By 2003, U.S. regulators decided remote-controlled safeguards needed more study. A report commissioned by the Minerals Management Service said "acoustic systems are not recommended because they tend to be very costly."

As per usual, when we don't want to modify our behavior even slightly, we ask for "more study." This sort of thing inspires me to use language not appropriate to the Org.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Hard to say what safety features, if any, would have prevented this. Nobody planned for the type of catastrophic failure experienced. Nobody really thought anything like that could happen. We are not even certain exactly what caused the explosion as it is.

Would the trigger safety mechanism have done the trick? Unknowable.

Will handling this be a stone-cold *****? Yeppers. We have a better handle on the tech needed to make repairs while orbiting Mars than we do to effect repairs that deep under water.

I suspect the relief drill approach will work, but that won't be complete until Septemberish (they say August, but that's for spin I suspect). The Gulf will be years returning to more or less previous condition.


[Sarcasm]Blaming this on Bush is ludicrous. It is OBVIOUS that Cheney was the leading figure in this appalling attack -- nobody else has so much to gain.[/Sarcasm]

[Vladimir]

[Sarcasm]Blaming this on Bush is ludicrous. It is OBVIOUS that Cheney was the leading figure in this appalling attack -- nobody else has so much to gain.[/Sarcasm]

That's who I thought of when I heard Haliburton was involved. It made me smile. Unfortunately, no one bit.

[PanzerJaeger]

Huh, we didn't even get to the end of the first post before the Bush blaming started.

Of course, it's the Leem's SOP. If a problem can be linked to Bush/Cheney, regardless of how tangentially, he's going to bring it up. I'm thinking he's just doing his small part in the Left's pre-emptive strike against those seeking to use this against Obama.

I was tempted to wonder aloud why, after 16 months in office, nothing was done to change these horrible Bush-era practices, but that's just petty.

I actually feel bad for the president. There really is nothing he can do but give speeches acting like there is. BP, not the government, is the only entity with the expertise to fix the problem. This wasn't his fault, but the fallout is going to fall on him just as that of Katrina did on Bush, especially if the Top Kill solution fails. It seems the hopelessness of his predicament hasn't escaped him.

An obviously angry President Barack Obama, meeting with senior government officials, had one view on the 36-day old oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that is becoming a monumental disaster not only for the environment and his administration.

“Plug the damn hole,” he told the meeting. “Just get it done.”

[Tellos Athenaios]

Well that link of Lemur's leads to a few follow up (or prequel) articles which seem to point out one thing very clearly: there was no contingency planning (apparently everyone was deferring to higher chains of command which simply does not work in an emergency), health and safety procedures were the stuff of dictionaries thrown out of the window long ago (because apparently nobody even knew how to release a few lifeboats, and nobody had the sense to shut down the system on their own), and there seems to have been a clever cost reduction programme in using sea water rather than the heavier counter-balance fluids/mud normally used (which seems to have been the cause of the whole thing).

Good thing though that BP will be required to pay for all this, similar to Exxon at Valdez. Bad thing though that the damage is apparently an order of magnitude larger and also more far-reaching.

[TinCow]

Yikes... just noticed this bit in the latest Washington Post update:

Two rigs are drilling relief wells but are not expected to complete their work until August.

August?! They'd better plug that thing long before August. It's still May!

[Strike For The South]

All my shrimp are covered in oil

[Pannonian]

All my shrimp are covered in oil

You won't even need a saucepan to fry them then. Just set them on fire, and you're good to go.

[Kadagar_AV]

To those saying that BP will have to pay for this.

Sure, absolutely. They will / should go bankrupt over it.

However, there is absolutely NO chance that BP has the cash to even remotely come close to paying for the damage. And some of the damage is not about money, but lives affected, and nature of course.

[Lemur]

Of course, it's the Leem's SOP. If a problem can be linked to Bush/Cheney, regardless of how tangentially, he's going to bring it up. I'm thinking he's just doing his small part in the Left's pre-emptive strike against those seeking to use this against Obama.

Shall I count your ad hominems or leave that up to those who are using them for a drinking game? Troll harder, my friend, troll harder.

[Vladimir]

To those saying that BP will have to pay for this.

Sure, absolutely. They will / should go bankrupt over it.

However, there is absolutely NO chance that BP has the cash to even remotely come close to paying for the damage. And some of the damage is not about money, but lives affected, and nature of course.

How many lives would your fantasy affect?

[Kadagar_AV]

How many lives would your fantasy affect?

Elaborate please? I didn't quite get you.

[PanzerJaeger]

Shall I count your ad hominems or leave that up to those who are using them for a drinking game? Troll harder, my friend, troll harder.

It's hardly an ad hominem or troll; I consider it part of your charm. I fully expect every national disaster, calamity, and tragedy that occurs in the next four to eight years to be the fault of the Bush administration in some way or another. Upon the great octosquid invasion, I wouldn't be surprised on my last visit to the .org before going out in a blaze of glory and squid juices to find a link to a HuffPo article quoting some sketchy trial lawyer discussing Donald Rumsfeld's refusal to fund octosquid detection and destruction hardware back in '02.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Shall I count your ad hominems or leave that up to those who are using them for a drinking game? Troll harder, my friend, troll harder.

Are you now, or have you ever been, a member of the Communist Party? Remember Mr. Proto-Simian, you are under oath.

[Lemur]

It's hardly an ad hominem or troll; I consider it part of your charm. I fully expect every national disaster, calamity, and tragedy that occurs in the next four to eight years to be the fault of the Bush administration in some way or another.

And you have a charming manner of diverting every argument to the personality of your interlocutors; you're actually one of the most skilled and slippery thread derailers I've ever seen.

Meanwhile, those 5,000 feet of water continue to be a staggering difficulty.

BP officials say the best hope for stopping the oil leak this week rests on a procedure that has been used to stop countless oil leaks before, but never in deep water. For weeks, BP experts have been studying conditions, especially the intense pressure that exists at the well head 1.5 kilometers under water.

During a trip to the Louisiana coastline this week, BP chief Tony Hayward said there is still doubt about the procedure, in spite of the exhaustive preparations. "It has never been done in 5,000 feet of water. If it was on land, we have a high confidence of success," he said. [...]

In case the top kill fails, BP says it is working on other methods to stop oil from leaking into the Gulf of Mexico. Wells says the firm has designed a valve system that can be used to cap the blow-out preventer and siphon oil to a surface vessel. "We believe by doing this we will create an option that will capture more of the flow that we have been able to capture so far," he said.

The ultimate solution for the oil leak is to drill a relief well that will intersect the existing well and choke the flow of oil. Two separate rigs are drilling relief wells now, but the work may not be finished until August.

[PanzerJaeger]

And you have a charming manner of diverting every argument to the personality of your interlocutors; you're actually one of the most skilled and slippery thread derailers I've ever seen.

Don't introduce subjects into your threads if you don't want them discussed.

[Lemur]

Initial signs are good ... although I had read that we wouldn't know anything solid for at least two days ...

HOUSTON, May 26 - BP Plc Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles said on Wednesday it appears drilling mud, not oil, was gushing from a ruptured undersea well six hours into an effort to halt a month-old oil spill.

"What you've been observing coming out of the top of that riser is most likely mud," Suttles said at a news conference broadcast from a Louisiana command center. "We can't fully confirm that because we can't sample it. And the way we know we've been successful is it stops flowing."

[Crazed Rabbit]

On the other hand, it's hard to look at another failsafe system that is already in use by major oil-producing nations and not feel a little wistful, especially staring in the face of the biggest ecological disaster in a long, long time.

Oh certainly. But we should recognize it as wishful thinking.

Initial signs are good ... although I had read that we wouldn't know anything solid for at least two days ...

Let's hope that does the trick. From a related link from that page:

BP remained cautious about the outcome of the much anticipated "top kill" procedure, as did President Barack Obama, whose credibility stands to suffer if one of the country's worst environmental catastrophes does not end soon.

I don't get that. He didn't cause it; only with hindsight is there any talk of the government somehow preventing this. BP and the rig operators caused it, and they're doing about all they can. Except for the people who died, of course.

This stupid reporting about Obama somehow being to blame for the long cleanup is ridiculous; worse yet it encourages more stupidity, overreactions by the government to show they're doing something.

CR