Korean sword-rattling

[rotorgun]

Before we all put the proverbial cart before the horse, doesn't it speak volumes that South Korea hasn't seen fit to retaliate to the sinking of one of its vessels, with the loss of 46 of her sailors? I address what Seamus refers to as "will to fight." In addition, Japan's constitution specifically forbids the use of its armed forces in an offensive role, something that some in Japan would like to see changed. I hardly think that they would become involved without a mandate from the UN's, or the US government's tacit approval at least.

I am amazed that South Korea hasn't already responded with a retaliatory strike? Is anyone else not amazed?

[Ice]

In addition, Japan's constitution specifically forbids the use of its armed forces in an offensive role, something that some in Japan would like to see changed. I hardly think that they would become involved without a mandate from the UN's, or the US government's tacit approval at least.

Would the the defense of an ally be offensive?

I am amazed that South Korea hasn't already responded with a retaliatory strike? Is anyone else not amazed?

Not really. I highly doubt the ROK wants a war with North Korea which what a counter attack could easily turn into.

[Centurion1]

GA long bloody slog ice which is all I'm trying to say

And actually without a us approval sticker they would not be able to defense d anywhere outside of the Japanese waters

[rotorgun]

Would the the defense of an ally be offensive?

Not necessarily, but it would be a measuraed response I think, one well considered in light of their constitutional obligations.

Not really. I highly doubt the ROK wants a war with North Korea which what a counter attack could easily turn into.

This is my point. I think they lack the political will, which the North may interpret as a go ahead for a preemptive strike, one that could cripple the South's military in such a way as to insure a protracted war. If the North were to act with alacrity, they might just win some major concessions in a negotiated settlement.

[Shaka_Khan]

This is my point. I think they lack the political will, which the North may interpret as a go ahead for a preemptive strike, one that could cripple the South's military in such a way as to insure a protracted war. If the North were to act with alacrity, they might just win some major concessions in a negotiated settlement.

I'm sure South Korea would fight hard if she was invaded in a major way. Right now, North Korea isn't invading in a major way.
Remember what North Korea has near the South Korean capitol. It's not worth starting a major war when you could avoid it.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Rotor:

I think SK has shown commendable restraint. The temptation to smart bomb an NK boat or two to make a point must have been compelling. Unfortunately, it wouldn't have done much more than their current response pattern.

Re: Japanese involvement:

They'll work on the naval side and provide awacs and sigint support. You will NOT see Japanese boots in Korea. There are WAY too many bad vibes from the past at play there for Japan to want to open that particular can of worms as well as a goodly cadre of domestic pacifists who want no Japanese military involvement in anything aside from the defense of Honshu. Short of a last-ditch defense of Pusan (which I don't think will happen again), the Japanese will not put ground troops in.

[Tellos Athenaios]

In fact Japan doing anything significant will likely prove counter-productive if the goal is to get China to drop NK. China may not like NK as much as it did; it still hates Japan much more so.

[Centurion1]

You mean aswacs I presume seamus?

[Subotan]

That was fantastic, thanks a lot

[Subotan]

Demonoid et al haven't come up with anything so I probably would have to buy it to watch it

[Subotan]

No! 2-1! And the first half was going so well in the direction of the Marxists!

[al Roumi]

I have been fascinated by North Korea's presence in the World Cup. They really didn't play badly at all against Brazil.

I was wondering how on earth they had kit and boots, or more exactly where it was from. Not all their players have the same boots -but it didn't look like any of their kit was Western made. Chinese products?

Also, i heard on the commentary that the game wouldn't be screened (in North Korea) if it ended in a loss to DPRK -i've since read somewhere that the point (if true!) is moot as South Korea aren't forwarding the TV/satelite feed as part of the recent antagonism.

The 50 odd, identicaly clad, exclusively male DPRK "fans" are also a sight to see.

I'd be very intrigued to see anything y'all might have seen on how the rulers of DPRK are actually treating the event.

So far all i've seen is this: "North Korea celebrate flawless 8-0 win" ...

[Furunculus]

Before we all put the proverbial cart before the horse, doesn't it speak volumes that South Korea hasn't seen fit to retaliate to the sinking of one of its vessels, with the loss of 46 of her sailors? I address what Seamus refers to as "will to fight." In addition, Japan's constitution specifically forbids the use of its armed forces in an offensive role, something that some in Japan would like to see changed. I hardly think that they would become involved without a mandate from the UN's, or the US government's tacit approval at least.

I am amazed that South Korea hasn't already responded with a retaliatory strike? Is anyone else not amazed?

japans 'defensive' activities could be to deploy naval forces as a defensive screen either side of the parallel which would free up SK naval forces otherwise committed to sanitising its own waters.

no readily causes a military incident when the other side has 10,000 artillery pieces within range of your capital, but if NK do start a war I expect the US/SK/Ja/Ch to finish it very quickly.

[Subotan]

Only North Korea would start a war, but only South Korea could win one.

[gaelic cowboy]

Only North Korea would start a war, but only South Korea could win one.

Only a certifiable loon would start a war when the yanks are testing this kind of tech

[KukriKhan]

Only a certifiable loon would start a war when the yanks are testing this kind of tech

So that's what that racket was Wednesday. Church attendance skyrocketed on Thursday, the local senior citizens and religiously-inclined convinced "the end" was near.

[Moros]

Only a certifiable loon would start a war when the yanks are testing this kind of tech

Load the Hwacha!

[Meneldil]

According to the various sites linked by someone earlier in this thread, it looks like the biggest NK artillery cannot reach Seoul, even from the border. So it looks like the whole "Seoul will be razed to the ground as soon as the war starts" idea is a misconception.

[Furunculus]

do be a sport, and point us to those links.......... :)

[rotorgun]

japans 'defensive' activities could be to deploy naval forces as a defensive screen either side of the parallel which would free up SK naval forces otherwise committed to sanitising its own waters.

no readily causes a military incident when the other side has 10,000 artillery pieces within range of your capital, but if NK do start a war I expect the US/SK/Ja/Ch to finish it very quickly.

I can imagine Japan's navy in such a role as you suggest, although there would most likely be some serious rules of engagement issues for a Japanese commander to attend to. As to your second point, what more reason than to use this incident as an excuse to preemptively strike at such a target. I doubt that the North Koreans would expect such a response, considering the current history of the US dominated south's past responses to the north's threats of aggression. I think that the north will not move without solid support from China.

[Furunculus]

what more reason than to use this incident as an excuse to preemptively strike at such a target. I doubt that the North Koreans would expect such a response, considering the current history of the US dominated south's past responses to the north's threats of aggression. I think that the north will not move without solid support from China.

i see your point, but any democratically elected government is going to get raped at the election after a preemptive war in korea, because my guess is that at least a thousand large calibre artillary shells will land on soeul.

and korea is now in strategic control of korean defence, american leadership was relinquished recently.

[TinCow]

I am amazed that South Korea hasn't already responded with a retaliatory strike? Is anyone else not amazed?

No, I am not amazed. The benefits to South Korea from a war are very minimal (even a successful one) while the costs of such a war in lives and damage will be huge, even if the war is quick. North Korea has nuclear weapons; you don't rush casually into war against a nuclear power.