Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Myth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APGnKRx67kI


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuO53xeZkm8#t

[HoreTore]

I guess Illuminati is to blame for this as well, eh?

[Buzghush]

People in the first video came from middle age?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

People in the first video came from middle age?

Ego usus catapultum, tribuo mihi totus vestri viaticus!

[Fragony]

Actually wanting to be in the ultra-undemocratic EU. That's rich. The EU is about eliminating the democratic nation-state and centralising power. Modern-day fascism really, socialism for the peasants, grants for the multinationals.

[Husar]

Actually wanting to be in the ultra-undemocratic EU. That's rich. The EU is about eliminating the democratic nation-state and centralising power. Modern-day fascism really, socialism for the peasants, grants for the multinationals.

The Netherlands is about eliminating the democratic nation-state and centralising power. Modern-day fascism really, should be happy the EU are trying to save the Limburgers from the fascism of the Zeelanders and the Gelderlanders.

[GenosseGeneral]

Actually wanting to be in the ultra-undemocratic EU. That's rich. The EU is about eliminating the democratic nation-state and centralising power. Modern-day fascism really, socialism for the peasants, grants for the multinationals.

Those protests where about signing the AA until about nov. 30 th, last year. This was when the government tried to disperse by blunt force (in the sense of boots and batons beating against students' heads).
Since then, it is about overthrowing Yanukovich and his gang of corrupt oligarchs. Corruption in Ukraine is outrageous on all levels.
I have been living there for one year, and I know why the Ukrainian people wants to live 'a European life'. It is not even about the tangible accomodities, it is about replacing the ever-present abuse of power and corruption by state officials with rule of law, something we Germans or Dutch probably take for granted.

[Sarmatian]

Ukraine is a deeply divided nation in every sense of the word. One part wants stronger ties with Russia, the other stronger ties with EU/West.

It's gonna end badly either way, especially as the politicians on both sides are professional cleptocrats when it comes to domestic policies.

[Montmorency]

Well, all of Ukraine seems to agree that Ukrainians should have limited sovereignty over Ukraine. :tongue:

[Fragony]

The Netherlands is about eliminating the democratic nation-state and centralising power. Modern-day fascism really, should be happy the EU are trying to save the Limburgers from the fascism of the Zeelanders and the Gelderlanders.

Ridicule is normal, so it's boring. I could make a list of what has been sneaked in, but it would depress me too much. Look up some video's of Nigel Farrage he is good at explaining things.

[HoreTore]

Ukraine is a deeply divided nation in every sense of the word. One part wants stronger ties with Russia, the other stronger ties with EU/West.

It's gonna end badly either way, especially as the politicians on both sides are professional cleptocrats when it comes to domestic policies.

I'd say it's more about the division within Ukraine itself, than it is about the east/west divide of Europe. This especially apparent if you examine the organizations present on both sides of the conflict. You will find groups with an ideology you would normally consider very anti-eu(various forms of nationalism) on the "pro-EU"-side.

And of course, there's probably a considerable middle ground of people who are just sick and tired of corruption and just want to have a new corrupt leader to whine about.

And Nigel Farrage is full of rethoric without any substance. All emotion, no rationality. No wonder frag loves him.

[Husar]

Ridicule is normal, so it's boring. I could make a list of what has been sneaked in, but it would depress me too much. Look up some video's of Nigel Farrage he is good at explaining things.

Some things are wrong with the EU but Nigel Farage is a sarcastic fanatic who likes to listen to himself most likely.
Maybe we could do the EU better if it weren't for all the nationalists and EU-skeptics who block every attempt that isn't dictated from above. You can't have a democracy when noone participates.

True leaders see that this is a self-defeating stance and have to force the union on the dumb masses, just like the USA were formed back in the day against the will of a lot of the population in the colonies. Do they regret it now? Some do on certain issues, until there is a war again and they cheer their grande armee that wouldn't be possible if they were all on their own. And they like to rub in how their huge nation has far more economic impact than any of the splintered EU countries etc. When Merkel complained about the NSA stuff they were like "yeah....well, no!", when the entire EU threatens to take steps against it they come along with concessions.

That people want to keep their own little nations in a world where only mega-corporations and mega-countries count is quite silly. If Europeans want to keep any sense of importance in the world, we have to unite. Else it is divide and conquer for the big countries.

[Fragony]

Well drilled. Why compare it to the USA, the USA was build on a revolution. Europe isn't the USA, we share no common identity. On tops, the people are against European integration, only in Belgium and Germany do they find that desirable.

[GenosseGeneral]

I'd say it's more about the division within Ukraine itself, than it is about the east/west divide of Europe. This especially apparent if you examine the organizations present on both sides of the conflict. You will find groups with an ideology you would normally consider very anti-eu(various forms of nationalism) on the "pro-EU"-side.

And of course, there's probably a considerable middle ground of people who are just sick and tired of corruption and just want to have a new corrupt leader to whine about.

In addition to the first paragraph: Here is the "freedom" party's party program (http://en.svoboda.org.ua/about/program/). Nothing I as a European identify with, especially all this ranting about 'offenses against the Ukrainian identity'. On the 'pro-Russian' side, we have the notable alliance of oligarkhs and communists, who currently rule.

But it is not only 'a considerable middle ground' of the protestors who are fed up with blatant corruption and an abusive police force. It is the majority. One has to bear in mind, that the probably most important escalation of protests occured NOT, when Yanukovich declared not to sign the AA, but when Berkut units brutally tried to disperse a crowd of only several hundred protestors at 4 am, nov. 30th. It was after this, that half a million of Ukrainians took the streets of Kyiv and demanded change.

I have personal experience with the Ukrainian militia and I can say, people have every right to be fed up with them. They always treat people like c**p. http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1382468744
This is the website of a major Ukrainian human rights advocate group, guess what is their most busy section? Right, the one offering help to "victims of the militia". Just click around a little at their website and read some of that stuff up there which is not about the current events. All those "he fell down the stairs"-incidents, or even worse, rape by police officers as in this case (http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/07/02/ukrainian-protesters-storm-police-station-after-authorities-refuse-to-arrest-cop-implicated-in-brutal-gang-rape/).

[Sarmatian]

I'd say it's more about the division within Ukraine itself, than it is about the east/west divide of Europe. This especially apparent if you examine the organizations present on both sides of the conflict. You will find groups with an ideology you would normally consider very anti-eu(various forms of nationalism) on the "pro-EU"-side.

And of course, there's probably a considerable middle ground of people who are just sick and tired of corruption and just want to have a new corrupt leader to whine about.


Possibly. I'm not going to pretend that I know every little bit about various interest groups in Ukraine. The fact is that one significantly large part of population want stronger ties with EU, the other significantly large part wants stronger ties with Russia and apparently both feel that is either one or the other, which is probably correct.

Looking on the corruption side of things, pro-Russian parties are guilty of that just as pro-EU are. When it comes to economy, 32% is foreign exchange with Russia, 31% exchange with the EU.

Basically, Ukraine is in a very bad position either way. I can't help but wonder if it would be better if Ukraine is divided, with eastern part joining Russia and western EU...

[Myth]

Corruption is rampant everywhere. In the west it's more concealed, there the lobbying and the making of laws that serve private interests is done more quietly, more to the side. In eastern Europe it's just taken to absurd levels. I can sympathize with the people but then again, behind such massive protests there is always a core of instigators. Ukraine is the biggest country within Russia's sphere of influence. If it is chipped away and taken down the road of EU integration then Russia becomes weaker.

That's the geopolitical side of it. Regarding the EU super government - yeah it's obvious that's the plan. USA has it, now the EU needs it. Later we can merge both to form a trans Atlantic nation. Where does it end? Until we have a Dictator of the Earthen Republic for life? I think there is no need to compare countries because right now we don't operate by Right of Conquest. So who cares if Europe is a few smaller countries and the USA and China are bigger ones? Inter country rivalry is old news. IMO it's about the quality of life of people around the globe and scientific progress for the whole of human kind. One can argue that both can be improved by more centralized power over larger swathes of land, but one can also argue the opposite. IMO nation states and the sense of belonging to a nation, country and culture are vital for human kind and should not be discarded because of artificially created disasters.

[HoreTore]

8. Implement a criminal penalty for any displays of Ukrainophobia.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

EDIT: Oh, and I see they come complete with GMO-hysteria. I'd be interested to know if any of them could name a single agricultural product not genetically modified by humans...

Let Putin have the whackos. Let's focus on roughing up Turkey and getting them on board instead.

EDIT2: It's taking me a while to get through GenosseGeneral's excellent linky(this is the "day of constant interuptions", apparently), but the following made me burst out laughing:


8. Cultivate the best traditions of Ukrainian pedagogy. Discontinue the practice of mechanical copying of foreign models, including the Bologna Process.

I fear for the future of Ukraine if these guys ever get a say in politics. What a bunch of idiots.

[Husar]

I would disagree on a nuance there.

It's not that corruption is more hidden in the West, it's that it has been renamed to lobbying and in some countries it has even been turned into something that people are supposed to see as a positive thing and that is sanctioned by constitutional courts.

Corruption is a negative, illegal thing, lobbying is an awesome way for the most vauable entities in society to improve said society for themselves by paying marginal sums for huge benefits that create a win-win situation for a few individuals. Corruption is really totally different.

[Rhyfelwyr]

It's been interesting reading about the background to all of this, especially how national identity works in Ukraine. Because the current conflict is about whether Ukraine belongs in the European (aka liberal democratic) world, or the Russian (aka Soviet power bloc) world, the national identity issue is all tied up in whether Ukrainians are really Russians, or something distinct from them. Historically, the two identities have been constantly alternating as the dominant norm - usually because the historic realities become muddled amidst changing relations with the Russian nation.

In terms of historic realities, Ukraine was of course part of the Rus (Russian) heartland a millennia ago - the Kievan Rus etc. This fact has been used both to place Ukraine within the Russian world, and on the other hand to emphasise ancient Ukrainian sovereignty. Besides these Rus roots, it has been hugely affected by migrations since then with the Tatars and Cossack hosts etc, giving a historic ground for a sense of cultural distinction from Russia. Romanticist literature about the Cossacks and their struggles against the Poles etc seems to have been the origins of a specifically Ukrainian nationalism, replacing more general pan-Slavism.

Then you have the impact of Russian relations and their affect on a desire for either solidarity or distinction from the Russians. While under Imperial Russia, the elite was strictly Russified, meaning that Ukrainian nationalism was something for the peasantry and lacked any intellectual roots. Ironically, the Bolsheviks fostered Ukrainian nationalism, and it was during this period of 'Ukrainianization' that the Ukrainian identity really became embraced by the whole country. The reasons for the Bolsheviks doing this were to weaken the old institutions of Imperialist Russia - for example weakening the Russian Orthodox Church by separating off a specifically Ukrainian one, and such moves for the first time helped create Ukrainian civic institutions.

However, Stalin then reversed all of this, taking the view that closer cultural ties would cement Ukraine within Russia's influence. So Russification began again, as Ukrainian civic institutions were attacked, and settlements of Russian-speakers began in the east of the country. This seems to have created a lasting legacy with today's more Russified east.

There is a deep history behind what is going on, even if the current conflict is over very contemporary issues. I would also note that while we might regard the protestors as the 'good guys', the pro-Euro/Ukrainian-identifying parties have a history of quite repressive measures against Russian-speakers, and they also have some extreme elements in their ranks (I've noticed many swastikas in the riot pictures).

[Myth]

Russia is baking its own cake too. They saw this coming, hence the desire to do South Stream ASAP. The previous Bulgarian goverment had frozen the project on the behalf of the US ambassador. Not officially of course, but we know they played to his fiddle. Then last year in January we had a masterfully engineered wave of protests that culminated with the abdication of that goverment. The new one is comprised of people who have ties with Russia, who were educated/trained there and who do business with the Russian oligarchs.

As you can guess, South Stream construction was renewed and it is now going on full tilt. Once it is completed, Russia will no longer be dependent on Ukranian benevolence to sell its natural gas to the western countries. It will also mean that the Ukranian government and whomever is controlling it will have lost their tool to influence Russia and keep it in check.

Of course, if our pro-American buddies come back in power here they will once again freeze the construction of South Stream and then Ukraine will become a lot more important to Russian interest and a great deal of money and operatives will be assigned to do some counter revolution...

[Husar]

It's almost as though the world ain't black and white.

Why don't they give Yanukovich and Klitschko some gloves and let them fight over which side wins?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1iAYyzxxzg

Please note that I do not endorse the use of "Tempo" in any way, in fact I find them underperforming and too hard and prefer another brand myself. The video does however demonstrate the power of the Klitschko brothers who are incidentally quite popular here and give the revolution a prominent and likeable face.

[Sarmatian]

Russia is baking its own cake too. They saw this coming, hence the desire to do South Stream ASAP. The previous Bulgarian goverment had frozen the project on the behalf of the US ambassador. Not officially of course, but we know they played to his fiddle. Then last year in January we had a masterfully engineered wave of protests that culminated with the abdication of that goverment. The new one is comprised of people who have ties with Russia, who were educated/trained there and who do business with the Russian oligarchs.

As you can guess, South Stream construction was renewed and it is now going on full tilt. Once it is completed, Russia will no longer be dependent on Ukranian benevolence to sell its natural gas to the western countries. It will also mean that the Ukranian government and whomever is controlling it will have lost their tool to influence Russia and keep it in check.

Of course, if our pro-American buddies come back in power here they will once again freeze the construction of South Stream and then Ukraine will become a lot more important to Russian interest and a great deal of money and operatives will be assigned to do some counter revolution...

Yes, Bulgarian cleptocrats are gonna decide about importance of Ukraine on the global stage or whether the South Stream gets built. Delusions of grandeur, what a beautiful thing...

[Myth]

Of course they don't. They are bootlickers but they know how to follow orders and hide behind someone else's back. You think that the recent resuming of construction was a coincidence?

BTW I went to Nis last weekend and I can say I really liked it. Especially the Serbian girls who wore waist long dark hair mostly (I enjoy long hair on girls and these Skrillex skulls I see around really put me off)

edit: as weak and corrupt as they are, they do technically have the right to say what goes through our territory. They hide behind slow approval of plans and adding re-evaluation of gis measurements and a bunch of other stuff, but in the end, they CAN stall it or halt it indefinitely if they want to. Just because we're small doesn't mean we can't tell someone else to not build on our turf. The pipeline itself DOES decide the importance of Urkaine as currently the only route for Russian gas to Europe. Or do you disagree with that?

[Sarmatian]

Of course they don't. They are bootlickers but they know how to follow orders and hide behind someone else's back. You think that the recent resuming of construction was a coincidence?

edit: as weak and corrupt as they are, they do technically have the right to say what goes through our territory. They hide behind slow approval of plans and adding re-evaluation of gis measurements and a bunch of other stuff, but in the end, they CAN stall it or halt it indefinitely if they want to. Just because we're small doesn't mean we can't tell someone else to not build on our turf. The pipeline itself DOES decide the importance of Urkaine as currently the only route for Russian gas to Europe. Or do you disagree with that?

1) There were details to iron out between Russia and EU. The problem was that the deal was made between states independently, ignoring EU completely. It was solved rather quick and the construction resumed.

2) There are 2.5 serious players in the entire North/South Stream thingy. One is Russia, other is Germany and I count Italy as half of one. The rest of us are just along for the ride and we should be thanking our lucky stars that the pipeline will give cheaper and more reliable gas, gas storages, investments, transit fees and jobs. If by a chance some local cleptocrat tries to mess with that, he would be given a choice, taking independence and sovereignty into account, of being spanked by German, Russian or Italian paddle.

3) There's much more to Ukraine than being just gas transit.

[Myth]

I agree with you, but the thing is, the local cleptocrats are sometimes serving Washingon's interests. The previous US ambassador here made it very clear what these interests hold. Give Chevron leave to drill for Shale Gas in Bulgaria. Allow the planting of GM crops. Bog down South Stream if possible.

Putin came here in 2010. The money were given and the companies to do the preliminary report were chosen in 2011. But our Eco commission gave the go ahead in 2013, after the government changed with much turmoil. The section on Bulgarian soil will cost 3.5 billion, which is 50% of the cost of the entire pipe which goes over land, because the distribution terminal will also be constructed here. There are other factors which slowed it down of course, our government was just playing along.

Back to Ukraine - it sure is more than a territory for a gas line. It is yet another test of influence. As usual, it's the common folk who will once again suffer no matter the outcome.

[GenosseGeneral]

There is a deep history behind what is going on, even if the current conflict is over very contemporary issues. I would also note that while we might regard the protestors as the 'good guys', the pro-Euro/Ukrainian-identifying parties have a history of quite repressive measures against Russian-speakers, and they also have some extreme elements in their ranks (I've noticed many swastikas in the riot pictures).

Ukrainian nationalism is indeed a funny thing. It is a mixture built somewhere around the Kievan Rus, a romantic view on the Cossacks, traditional clothing (the Vyshyvanka (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vyshyvanka); every proper Ukrainian nationalist owns one) and the poets Taras Shevtchenko and Ivan Franko. Oh and don't forget about the language issue, Russian vs. Ukrainian. Noone really knows, which language is actually the majority's language, most ukrainians understand both or speak a mixture. Yet hardcore nationalists will refuse to say any Russian word and it can be quite risky to use Russian in the more nationalist regions of the West.

Oh and yes, there is a good deal of antisemitism and racism present in the Ukranian nationalist movement. "Death to all jids![sic]" or "Death to all hadshis [derogatory slang for people from the islamic former memberstates of the USSR]" are common slogans. They also admire the Nazis for fighting communism, as their forebearers of the UPA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army) had some sort of alliance with the Nazis for some time, probably due to their mutual hatred towards Polish, Jews and Communists.


In fact, these radical elements are possibly one of the main reasons, the opposition gets so little suppport in Eastern Ukraine. WWII is still remembered rather vividly and the term 'fascists' is easy to apply on these radicals, thus making it easy for the government to evoke fear of "these fascists from the West".

[Myth]

Again then, no good guys and plenty of bad guys? I also feel sorry for the police officer who got a molotov thrown on his face. They may be corrupt (ok, I'm not exempting the rapists and such) but setting a person on fire for doing his job is lunacy. Especially since they're not even using gas and rubber bullets. If your guys are being set on fire either pull them back or give them leave to do something other than observe and count flaming bottles in the sky above.

Of course, if lethal force is authorised then this gives leave for anyone with enough media ties to label the Ukranian regime as anti-humane and to get foreign intervention there. So I guess that's why the police just sits there while being roasted alive.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I would rather have Ukraine join the West than stick with Russia obviously. Someone said that corruption is everywhere in the West as well, it is just better hidden. Well, maybe Ukrainians at least want a government culture where they have to hide their corruption. Paying lip service to an ideal is one step closer to that ideal than simply letting politicians be brazen with their misdeeds.

[GenosseGeneral]

Again then, no good guys and plenty of bad guys? I also feel sorry for the police officer who got a molotov thrown on his face. They may be corrupt (ok, I'm not exempting the rapists and such) but setting a person on fire for doing his job is lunacy. Especially since they're not even using gas and rubber bullets. If your guys are being set on fire either pull them back or give them leave to do something other than observe and count flaming bottles in the sky above.


Well, they answered it with rubber bullets, stun and tear gas grenades. Some officers reportedly threw back stones and molotovs as well.

And yes, there is corruption in the West as well. But it is not half as blatant as in Ukraine, where the state apparatus and government funds primatily cater the needs of the Oligarchs. There are numerous examples, for instance the newly introduced subsidies for green energy or the way anti-monopoly laws are used to push competitors out of the market in order to create - a monopoly. Yes there is corruption in the West - but in terms of scale, comparing the two means equalling camp X-Ray with Dachau concentration camp.

This text (https://www.facebook.com/aleksandra.kovalyova/posts/10200226628266773) went viral in Ukraine in its Russian/Ukrainian version and sums up the majority of protestors' motivation, as far as I am informed through media as well as personal contacts.

[The Lurker Below]

The video of the guy driving to work in your link reminded me of OJ riding around L.A. after his wife died. OJ is also Russian mafia?

[Sarmatian]

This text (https://www.facebook.com/aleksandra.kovalyova/posts/10200226628266773) went viral in Ukraine in its Russian/Ukrainian version and sums up the majority of protestors' motivation, as far as I am informed through media as well as personal contacts.

That text is typical propaganda piece trying to portray "Russia or EU" choice, which is the crux, as "mafia or democracy/freedom" choice. Unfortunately, pro-EU current in Ukraine is just as corrupt as pro-Russian is.

The naivety is also amusing. I like how the writer said:

For us, the agreement with the EU was a sign of change of the criminal system

It doesn't work that way. No one is going to do your work for you. You have to deal with it. Ask your Bulgarian neighbours. They still have rampant corruption even though they've been EU members for 7 years.

[Fisherking]

Ukraine is a deeply divided nation in every sense of the word. One part wants stronger ties with Russia, the other stronger ties with EU/West.

It's gonna end badly either way, especially as the politicians on both sides are professional cleptocrats when it comes to domestic policies.

Sounds rather like the USA with more openness.

[Beskar]

IMO nation states and the sense of belonging to a nation, country and culture are vital for human kind and should not be discarded because of artificially created disasters.

But the nation-state, country, etc are indeed artificially created disasters in themselves...

So you are saying "No eggs in my omelette!" but you cannot make an omelette without having eggs. No eggs means no omelette.

[Montmorency]

No eggs means no omelette.

:mellow:


http://youtu.be/6lLcUxhnA9Y?t=2m53s

[Moros]

I've seen ballista's being build and testudo formations. Are we sure we're correctly translating all this. It almost looks like re-enactment.
Either way it seems the Ukrainian education hasn't failed when it comes to classical history.:rtwyes:

[Husar]

I've seen ballista's being build and testudo formations. Are we sure we're correctly translating all this. It almost looks like re-enactment.
Either way it seems the Ukrainian education hasn't failed when it comes to classical history.:rtwyes:

It's probably what they consider nonviolent clashes in Ukraine.

[Myth]

Sarmatian is right. The coming of the EU SHOULD have fixed things, but it didn't.

Bulgaria was ruined with a masterfully executed plan. The same communists from the ruling party divided the spoils right before toppling the regime from under Zhivkov's feet. They did a coup with the blessings of Moscow and then got to work. All the major industrial complexes were strangled - private mafia companies taking over the importation of raw materials and the selling of finished goods, essentially ensuring the factory works at a loss.

Several years later we have privatisation as one of the prerequisites for joining the EU. They sell industrial mastodonts like Neftochim Burgas (oil refinery) for a miserable $130 million to the Russian oligarchs. They sell MDK Pridop (precious metals plant) for $50 million while inside the storage facilities there was around $60 million in already smelted metals.

The prosperous factories remained private, the rest were bankrupted on purpose, the machines sold for scrap and so on. More corruption than ever, especially considering the lucrative spots on the black sea coast (tourist traps etc.) When the EU came with it's EU commission and regulation on EU funds our guys just changed the model and started figuring out how to steal EU funds. Like setting up puppet companies which "win tenders" for infrastructure, renovation and other such projects. Millions if not billions stolen. So yeah, the EU isn't a magical fairy god mother of proper morale or justice. Our justice system is so corrupt you'd have to be a moron or really really poor to be in prison.

Oh, and that's a trebuchet, not a ballista

[Moros]

Oh, and that's a trebuchet, not a ballista
I've seen two catapults one looked like a ballista (of course not a real one) and one like well nothing really historical. But I'd be very surprised if they'd pull a trebuchet of. Now there might be even more and bigger ones out there, but a trebuchet that's quite a difficult one to pull of.

[Myth]

Check out the first video in the op. It looks like a mini trebuchet to me.

[Fisherking]

It is. I saw it too. Likely a traction trebuchet. No weights just people pulling to provide the force.

[Fragony]

President just stepped down.

[HoreTore]

President just stepped down.

No, the prime minister did.

Patsy sacrificed, rats leaving the ship, or what?

[Fragony]

No, the prime minister did.

Patsy sacrificed, rats leaving the ship, or what?

My bad

[Moros]

It is. I saw it too. Likely a traction trebuchet. No weights just people pulling to provide the force.


Check out the first video in the op. It looks like a mini trebuchet to me.

Ah yes that one. Yeah didn't wanted to call it a trebuchet. You're right that it is somewhat a like to a traction trebuchet. But then again I used the term ballista for a primitive but similar looking contraption as well. So I guess you could call it a trebuchet. Anyway I've got the feeling we might not be talking about the most relevant aspects of these protests.


Also I'm quite surprised the video of the protesters taking over the ministry hasn't been posted? Or was it deemed a tad too aggressive?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhVrey_sDx8


I must say I've never seen anything like it in my short lifetime when it comes to riots.

[Husar]

You just don't mess with Russians/Ukrainians. :shrug:

While I may feel a little sorry for the police officers getting hit with all kinds of things and having their toys taken away, some may deserve it but they're not using any lethal force and that's commendable, especially compared to other countries with riots.
I just hope the protesters show the same restraint when the policemen give up, in the video it seems to be the case.

[rvg]

In the long run Ukraine is probably better off without Russia unless Russia undergoes some serious changes.

[Myth]

Russia will play hard ball. They didn't give in for Syria, they sure as hell ain't giving in when it comes to Ukraine.

[rvg]

It's not their fight though. Ukraine's choice is up to the Ukrainians, not Russia, the EU, or anyone else for that matter.

[Myth]

Pfft. What the masses want is up to who has manipulated them better.

[rvg]

Well yeah, and that's where Russia is laying out all her trump cards. The 15 billion dollar loan was a brilliant move. It didn't end the protests, but it was a stunningly powerful statement.

[Moros]

Pfft. What the masses want is up to who has manipulated them better.
It is worthy to mention that they don't seem to listen to nor really stand behind any of the supposition party leaders anymore. Even Klytschko is getting less willing ears. So it seems some leaders within the protesters might soon get some spotlight. Though one can argue how organised they are. And sometimes it seems they very much are and at others it seems like non at all. Or perhaps Tymoshenko will be the one to profit. She can't do any wrong because of being locked up and most protesters seem to be pro releasing her, they even demand her release.

[rvg]

...Or perhaps Tymoshenko will be the one to profit. She can't do any wrong because of being locked up and most protesters seem to be pro releasing her, they even demand her release.

Releasing her might go a long way towards defusing the situation.

[Fisherking]

there is movement in the government.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/29/world/europe/ukraine-prime-minister-resign.html?ref=ukraine&_r=0

I heard it earlier today...

[Sarmatian]

https://s21.postimg.org/xcj4dg3ev/ukraine_2010_election.jpg (http://postimage.org/)


This is the problem in Ukraine. A very clear division between pro EU and pro Russian parts of the country. If the government in Kiev is toppled, the eastern regions are already saying the won't acknowledge the new government.

[Beskar]

If the divide is as clear cut as that, splitting the country into two wouldn't be a bad option. Unfortunately, I doubt it would be as simply as that in the slightest.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Apparently the prime minister has resigned (http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/28/world/europe/ukraine-protests/), thus engendering a complete change of government. Calls continue for the President to resign as well.

[Moros]

https://s21.postimg.org/xcj4dg3ev/ukraine_2010_election.jpg (http://postimage.org/)


This is the problem in Ukraine. A very clear division between pro EU and pro Russian parts of the country. If the government in Kiev is toppled, the eastern regions are already saying the won't acknowledge the new government.

Yes but since a few day riots have spread and protesters were rather active in trying and achieving/failing in taking the local goverment buildings in many eastern provinces as well. So I'm not sure this might be the case. I think with the economical problems of late combined with frustrations of certain elements, plus a more common feeling that the president went to far with his anti protest laws, are I think more wide spread than we might reckon. However once protests are done and more longterm plans are to be made, I guess division will again be the very much the case.

[GenosseGeneral]

Also I'm quite surprised the video of the protesters taking over the ministry hasn't been posted? Or was it deemed a tad too aggressive?

I must say I've never seen anything like it in my short lifetime when it comes to riots.

It is not a ministry they storm, but an Oblast (=administrational district) administration building in Western Ukraine.
The level of aggressiveness is extremely high on both sides, just look up a couple of videos, e.g. from Nov. 30th (first attempted crackdown on the Maidan) or the one taking from the special police's point of view, which shows how officers are set ablaze by molotov cocktails. The Berkut units are feared for a reason, namely beating and kicking people already lying on the ground, but just recently major hooligan groups declared "to support the protests and protect them from the police".
The Video shows quite some violence, be warned
(I hope it is ok to link it, as we are in the backroom)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9U5Qmv9gg8w
Video is from Dec. 1, taken at Bankova str., Kyiv.


Yes but since a few day riots have spread and protesters were rather active in trying and achieving/failing in taking the local goverment buildings in many eastern provinces as well. So I'm not sure this might be the case. I think with the economical problems of late combined with frustrations of certain elements, plus a more common feeling that the president went to far with his anti protest laws, are I think more wide spread than we might reckon. However once protests are done and more longterm plans are to be made, I guess division will again be the very much the case.

I definitely agree with this. One also has to noticed, that the attacks on local administration buildings actually STRENGTHENED support for Yanukovich, at least in the East, where people now rant against the spreading of anarchy and some demand "to end this uprising in a bloodbath". In Donetsk and Kharkiv at least, groups of vigilantes have formed/where hired (it is hard to say), who want "to defend their cities against anarchy".

I found this article (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/01/30/9-questions-about-ukraine-you-were-too-embarrassed-to-ask/) through an Ukrainian friend of mine, and I think it gives some more insight into the lines along which the country is split.
Though I have my doubts, whether it is really geographically that clear; it is also a question of generations. Younger and better educated people are far more likely to have a 'Western European' mindset. Or take Jews: Not only that there is widespread anti-semitism amongst nationalists, the Jewish minority speaks mostly Russian, also in Western Ukraine.

[GenosseGeneral]

Seems like the political crisis is now joined by an economical one, as the national currency Hryvnia has seen a steep fall over the last weeks and tuesday there was reported a big run on banks throughout the country, as Ukraniains tried buy as many Dollars and Euros as they could, leading to shortages and limitations in some places. Ukrainians have made traumatic experiences with hyperinflation during the 2008 crisis and even worse, in the 1990ies. And if you look at this chart (http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=UAH&view=1M), their experience might repeat.

However, there seems to be some movement in the Verkhovna Rade (=Parliament) to make changes to the constitution in order to weaken the president's position. It is not clear yet, whether these attempts will be successful, but a change of the constitution could take away enough of peoples' fears of "the Belorussian way" so that they can wait until the2015 elections to get rid of Yanukovich.

[HoreTore]

.....And these are the guys accused of playing the entire world like a puppet, toppling regimes at will....

Yeah, right.

[Sarmatian]

.....And these are the guys accused of playing the entire world like a puppet, toppling regimes at will....

Yeah, right.

Not entire world, just a significant part and not playing and toppling but trying. Just because one does something, it doesn't mean one's automatically good at it. Case in point, Norwegians and football.

[HoreTore]

Not entire world, just a significant part and not playing and toppling but trying. Just because one does something, it doesn't mean one's automatically good at it.

Even in this very thread we have seen posts hinting that the resolution of the Ukraine crisis will be decided by these people. Not try to decide, but decide.


Case in point, Norwegians and football.

Who's trying?

[Husar]

The EU will act fast once the US congress passes a budget that lasts longer than a few months and isn't a few weeks late. :laugh4:

It's like Bob calling Cindy blue.

[GenosseGeneral]

Open battles on streets in Kyiv (http://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv/renewed-violence-breaks-out-today-near-ukraines-parliament-at-least-one-injured-336993.html)
That article does not fully cover it, but it gives you an idea what is going on there. And it seems to be not limited to one point (like it was on Jan. 20 and the follwoing days).
Reports include fatally wounded protestors, MVD troopers taken in captive and the speaker/head of parliament/president of parliament Rybak has suffered a breakdown. The Parliament building is evacuated.

This all rapidly since this morning, in about 9 am local time, a group of protestors tried to march to parliament to force it to formally introduce a law about returning to the constitution of 2004. This return was debated as a means to solve the crisis politically by limiting the president's power; however, the government did everything to delay the vote in parliament.

EDIT: The president is conferring with closest counsellors. We might see the declaration of martial law within the next hours. This would drown the protests in a bloodpath.

EDIT2: So far 3 protestors dead, 7 close to death, 300 wounded, medical personal from the opposition's main first aid-point say.

[Fragony]

Must say I don't believe this http://edition.cnn.com/2014/02/20/world/europe/ukraine-protests/index.html

As far as I know 20 dead comfirmed, don't know if that is true either.

[Sir Moody]

BBC reports 21 however as with any "live" news that number is subject to change

[Fragony]

Quite a bit, official number is now 64. This is getting even uglier, almost 70 police-officers have been taken hostage and something is comming up to release them. Screw it all, I am going to smoke a nice one and have a whiskey without a care in the world. FMW.

[Rhyfelwyr]

Wow, that was a fast escalation. I thought they had reached an agreement and that was the end of it. If government snipers are at work that is pretty scary. Equally the protestors look far from peaceful. I won't pass judgement I'll leave that to those who know the situation better.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

So what are the bets on this? Like Egypt or like Syria?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Wow, that was a fast escalation. I thought they had reached an agreement and that was the end of it. If government snipers are at work that is pretty scary. Equally the protestors look far from peaceful. I won't pass judgement I'll leave that to those who know the situation better.

EU travel and import/export bans: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26280710

So - Ukraine is rapidly going the way of Egypt, it appears.

The likelihood of Russian troops entering to "restore order" is approaching "1".

At this point it's a race - the EU has a small window left to calm the situation before Putin sends in the tanks to oust the current government and install and actual puppet.

Meanwhile, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria are extremely glad they agreed to the join the EU already.

[Sarmatian]

EU travel and import/export bans: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26280710

Sanctions on import of repression tools (whatever that is) and travel bans for 20 people. In other words, nothing.


So - Ukraine is rapidly going the way of Egypt, it appears.

The likelihood of Russian troops entering to "restore order" is approaching "1".

At this point it's a race - the EU has a small window left to calm the situation before Putin sends in the tanks to oust the current government and install and actual puppet.

Meanwhile, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria are extremely glad they agreed to the join the EU already.

If it continues, I see a breakup of the country, which is probably the best solution anyway. If the opposition gets what it wants, we're gonna have the exact same drama, just with reversed roles.

I already envisage EU and US officials stating how the protesters are getting violent, trying to overthrow democratically elected government and how that government must be supported against armed rebels and terrorists. All the major news media will start focusing on how well armed the rebels are and how many police officers were injured in violent attacks. It's gonna be hillarous.

[Beskar]

I already envisage EU and US officials stating how the protesters are getting violent, trying to overthrow democratically elected government and how that government must be supported against armed rebels and terrorists. All the major news media will start focusing on how well armed the rebels are and how many police officers were injured in violent attacks. It's gonna be hillarous.

Nono, the Western Governments will fund the rebels, then the Government sponsered by Russia will use chemical weapons. Then there is a big hoo-haa about how the weapons given by western governments will go into the hands of terrorists and Al-Qaeda...

Wait.. isn't similar a different conflict?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

If it continues, I see a breakup of the country, which is probably the best solution anyway. If the opposition gets what it wants, we're gonna have the exact same drama, just with reversed roles.

I already envisage EU and US officials stating how the protesters are getting violent, trying to overthrow democratically elected government and how that government must be supported against armed rebels and terrorists. All the major news media will start focusing on how well armed the rebels are and how many police officers were injured in violent attacks. It's gonna be hillarous.

A breakup of the country is unlikely as neither the EU or Russia will support that, it allows for the breakup of other countries in Europe which make the political situation too "flexible."

Whilst I appreciate your cynicism, and you're right to by cynical, it's also not true that a pro-EU government would end up the same as the current one. For two reasons:

1. The EU cannot be seen to support an internally repressive regime on it's own doorstep - they can't even get away with that in Africa now, let alone Ukraine. It simply isn't practical politics, and any government looking for EU backing for these sorts of policies won't get it.

2. Remember, violent demonstrations started when the Ukraine re-oriented itself towards Russia and the president basically admitted this was because the Russians offered them more money. I don't think this is about EU vs Russia so much as the idea that Russia can (or cannot) but Ukrainian loyalty.

[Rhyfelwyr]

Hmm, so people want to turn Ukraine into another proxy war in the great Free West v Authoritarian East conflict? I would also be wary of arming Ukrainian rebels, they might not be influenced by ISIS but they don't exactly have a spotless history themselves (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army#Oath_of_the_Soldier_of_Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army).

Still I can't see things reaching the stage of Egypt, far less Syria. We have plenty of precedents for bloodless revolutions in recent Eastern European history.

[drone]

Well, good for the rebels. I doubt there are going to be any groups like ISIS trying to edge in on the Ukraine, so why not fund the rebels? Hell, fund the crap out of them. That's what Russia gets.

Danger zone!

[Beskar]

Hmm, so people want to turn Ukraine into another proxy war in the great Free West v Authoritarian East conflict? I would also be wary of arming Ukrainian rebels, they might not be influenced by ISIS but they don't exactly have a spotless history themselves (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army#Oath_of_the_Soldier_of_Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army).

So it is a toss between choosing which you would support out of Burkas (http://cdn.frontpagemag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/burka.jpg) and FEMEN (http://opiniaoenoticia.com.br/wp-content/uploads/femen1.jpg) ?

[Shaka_Khan]

The main part of anti-Russianism in Ukraine goes back to Stalin when he oppressed the entire Soviet Union with his extreme collectivism policy that was the cause for a nation-wide famine. Ukraine was the main sufferer of that policy. There was also Stalin's Great Purge in the Soviet Union. It was in fact Khrushchev who first condemned Stalin's purging policies in Khrushchev's Secret Speech to the Congress of the Communist Party (although Khrushchev originally supported Stalin during the Great Purge). You can find his speech on youtube. Many people misunderstand the old photos of Ukrainians cheering for German invaders during WWII. The Ukrainians had suffered under Stalin's policies before WWII, so they considered the Germans as liberators. There were actually a lot of Ukrainians who remained loyal to the Soviet Union. After experiencing German occupation, more Ukrainians joined the Soviet Union side in large numbers.

[Sarmatian]

A breakup of the country is unlikely as neither the EU or Russia will support that, it allows for the breakup of other countries in Europe which make the political situation too "flexible."

Depends on the situation, in my opinion. Russia needs Ukraine. Europe doesn't really need Ukraine, but doesn't want Russia to have it. Russia has a slightly better position. So, unless EU backs down, I see Russia calling their bets until the very end. The very end being the breakup of Ukraine.


Whilst I appreciate your cynicism, and you're right to by cynical, it's also not true that a pro-EU government would end up the same as the current one. For two reasons:

1. The EU cannot be seen to support an internally repressive regime on it's own doorstep - they can't even get away with that in Africa now, let alone Ukraine. It simply isn't practical politics, and any government looking for EU backing for these sorts of policies won't get it.

2. Remember, violent demonstrations started when the Ukraine re-oriented itself towards Russia and the president basically admitted this was because the Russians offered them more money. I don't think this is about EU vs Russia so much as the idea that Russia can (or cannot) but Ukrainian loyalty.

1). Of course it can not. That's why such a government will a priori be declared democratic, with the interest of the people at heart, wanting to lead them to freedom and democracy and the protesters will automatically become either rebels and terrorists.

Just like in Kosovo - government there was and is democratic. Human trafficking, drugs, murders, violence, destruction, ethnic cleansing, rampant corruption and an occasional kidney being sold under the counter can't change that.

2). That's what the west's been doing that all over the world for a very long time. Even before this mess, Ukraine was on verge of bankruptcy. What kept the economy from collapsing and people from freezing was Russian energy which they were getting for an extremely privileged price.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Depends on the situation, in my opinion. Russia needs Ukraine. Europe doesn't really need Ukraine, but doesn't want Russia to have it. Russia has a slightly better position. So, unless EU backs down, I see Russia calling their bets until the very end. The very end being the breakup of Ukraine.

I fail to see how Russia has a "better position" - in fact: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26284505

Russia stands more to lose, and are therefore Russia may send tanks.


1). Of course it can not. That's why such a government will a priori be declared democratic, with the interest of the people at heart, wanting to lead them to freedom and democracy and the protesters will automatically become either rebels and terrorists.

Just like in Kosovo - government there was and is democratic. Human trafficking, drugs, murders, violence, destruction, ethnic cleansing, rampant corruption and an occasional kidney being sold under the counter can't change that.

Such a government will lose said backing if it demonstrates it's can't resist killing protesters - doesn't play well in France or Germany when the EU is seen to back such people. As to Kosovo - it has been censured several times, but the West recognises self-determination and if Kosovo is a mess it's the fault of Serbia.


2). That's what the west's been doing that all over the world for a very long time. Even before this mess, Ukraine was on verge of bankruptcy. What kept the economy from collapsing and people from freezing was Russian energy which they were getting for an extremely privileged price.

The Arab spring showed the foolishness of the West backing dictators, and it is no longer palatable domestically. These days you need to be at least moderately democratic to get Western backing.

[HoreTore]

I've been browsing a few fascist forums lately - and they claim to have chased out "lefties" from Madian... I'm guessing "left" means anyone supporting democracy, whether conservative, liberal or socialist.

Fortunately, fascist forums are of course notoriously unreliable and I don't trust them for a second. Still, it's certainly worrisome if the protest movement now consists of skinheads wanting independence(isolation) and a strong Führer in charge...

[a completely inoffensive name]

I've been browsing a few fascist forums lately -

Find a hobby, son.

[HoreTore]

Find a hobby, son.

I actually call that part of my daily routine "work". ~;)

[Fisherking]

Well, if the US can’t manage a good war in Syria they are willing to jump in there too.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/19/us-ukraine-obama-idUSBREA1I1AJ20140219

I guess he was listening here and decided it was no joke.

[Sarmatian]

I fail to see how Russia has a "better position" - in fact: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26284505

Russia stands more to lose, and are therefore Russia may send tanks.

Simple. It can offer a better deal to Ukraine and follow it through.

Let's look at the crux of the issue, without the traditional bollox about democracy and human rights.

Democratically elected government of the country made a foreign policy decision. A part of the population doesn't like that decision and they're doing anything they can to reverse it, including using violence and trying to take over institutions of the country forcibly. That's the exact opposite of a democratic principle, which would be to vote for someone else in the next elections. On the other hand, I totally agree with Lincoln that if the people don't like the government, they can exercise their democratic right to change it, or their revolutionary right to overthrow it.

The problem here is that this group doesn't represent all, or even the majority of population of Ukraine. Ukraine is a deeply divided country, and placating one group of protesters means another will rise up. If it isn't balanced, I don't find it totally unforeseeable for the country to be divided.


Such a government will lose said backing if it demonstrates it's can't resist killing protesters - doesn't play well in France or Germany when the EU is seen to back such people. As to Kosovo - it has been censured several times, but the West recognises self-determination and if Kosovo is a mess it's the fault of Serbia.

Riiiight. And that, children, is how you wash your hands.


The Arab spring showed the foolishness of the West backing dictators, and it is no longer palatable domestically. These days you need to be at least moderately democratic to get Western backing.

This isn't really about backing dictators. There are two currents of roughly equal strength. Both won the elections in the recent past, democratically for the most part. Previous government sought NATO membership, even though the support for that was less than 10% among the population. There were no mass protests or attempts at revolution. They just voted in a different government. If the current government in Kiev is overthrown now, and the course reset, I don't think the eastern part will again do nothing.


I've been browsing a few fascist forums lately - and they claim to have chased out "lefties" from Madian... I'm guessing "left" means anyone supporting democracy, whether conservative, liberal or socialist.

Fortunately, fascist forums are of course notoriously unreliable and I don't trust them for a second. Still, it's certainly worrisome if the protest movement now consists of skinheads wanting independence(isolation) and a strong Führer in charge...

The situation is ripe for extreme groups to get involved. This what they're waiting for, after all.

[Myth]

Sniper shooting at unarmed civilians.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjUzaw5pIBY

A bunch of photos from yesterday got on facebook - dead bodies on both sides. But they have been taken down.

[Kagemusha]

I think the situation at Ukraine has several layers of problems and is extremely problematic to foreign powers. This could turn out to be extremely dangerous and in worst case scenario can escalate to full blown civil war. It is just not about citizens against the government, but also about factions within the country. If the Pro West rioters will be able to topple the government. I am quite sure we are going to witness a backlash from the Pro Russian elements, while the situation is very problematic to both EU and Russia, while both of the powers simply do not want a crisis in their relationship because of Ukraine. I think many do not understand how dangerous this crisis can turn out to be.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The main part of anti-Russianism in Ukraine goes back to Stalin when he oppressed the entire Soviet Union with his extreme collectivism policy that was the cause for a nation-wide famine. Ukraine was the main sufferer of that policy. There was also Stalin's Great Purge in the Soviet Union. It was in fact Khrushchev who first condemned Stalin's purging policies in Khrushchev's Secret Speech to the Congress of the Communist Party (although Khrushchev originally supported Stalin during the Great Purge). You can find his speech on youtube. Many people misunderstand the old photos of Ukrainians cheering for German invaders during WWII. The Ukrainians had suffered under Stalin's policies before WWII, so they considered the Germans as liberators. There were actually a lot of Ukrainians who remained loyal to the Soviet Union. After experiencing German occupation, more Ukrainians joined the Soviet Union side in large numbers.

Yet another example of the Nazis screwing the pooch. If they had been vaguely positive towards the Ukraine, much of it would have gone anti-Stalin and produced agro for the Germans while minimizing the need to interdict partisan efforts. Talk about ideology trumping common sense.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The latest word on developments in the Ukraine (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-ukraine-protest-20140221,0,1284200.story).

So, will this result in contested elections that are ultimately accepted, continued semi=-anarchy, or civil war?

[Sarmatian]

It is difficult to predict whether opposition leaders will be able to contain and pacify the protesters.

If they don't, the country may very well descend into violence and retribution towards those seen as collaborating with the previous regime which may bring civil war in the end. Seen it in Serbia in 2000, was very ugly but it was relatively unopposed as Milosevic by that time lost almost all support.

[Rhyfelwyr]

It is interesting that the President has moved out to Kharkiv, an eastern city where he will have a lot of support. Could this mean he is trying to establish a base for his faction to mount opposition to any new, pro-Western government?

I don't think this conflict it one of good v evil. Certainly, I would be concerned for the Russophone population if a pro-Western government took charge.

[gaelic cowboy]

It is interesting that the President has moved out to Kharkiv, an eastern city where he will have a lot of support. Could this mean he is trying to establish a base for his faction to mount opposition to any new, pro-Western government?

I don't think this conflict it one of good v evil. Certainly, I would be concerned for the Russophone population if a pro-Western government took charge.


Far more likely he is runing for the hills before he is charged with basically being a kleptocrat.

All the best dictators have a petting zoo out the back of there gaff (http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-yanukovych-residence-menagerie/25273747.html)

[Sarmatian]

If it's kleptocracy what it's about, then you can safely lock up both pro western and pro russian ones. Preferably together.

Meanwhile, in eastern Ukraine... (http://rt.com/news/thousands-gather-eastern-ukraine-252/)


“We, the local authorities of all levels, the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol region decided to take responsibility for ensuring the constitutional order and the rights of citizens on their territory,” their resolution said.

The Kharkov public gathering has announced a number of measures local authorities should take in response to the developments in Kiev. They should take full responsibility for all decision in respective regions with no regard to authorities in Kiev until the constitutional order in Ukraine is restored, a resolution of the gathering says.

They authorities should take measures to protect arms depots and prevent their take-over and looting by radical opposition activists.

The deputies have criticized the decision adopted by the Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) in the last few days, saying they are raising doubts about its legitimacy.

The gathering says the legislative acts may have been passed involuntary and are neither legitimate nor lawful.

The resent decisions of the national parliament were taken in conditions “of terror, threats of violence and death,” the resolution says.



"My colleagues and I have been personally threatened. But today we have gathered to change the situation,” he said. “We will not give in; we will fight till the end.”

The statement has been echoed by Rada’s Party of Regions deputy, Vadim Kolesnichenko, who also said that politicians are being threatened and “their families are basically hostages [of the situation].”

This may prove to be the worst move of the opposition so far. They won't have any control in the east, and have taken away any incentive Yanukovich might have had to deal with them. They're now rebels who performed a coup to oust legally and democratically elected president and government.

[HoreTore]

This may prove to be the worst move of the opposition so far. They won't have any control in the east, and have taken away any incentive Yanukovich might have had to deal with them. They're now rebels who performed a coup to oust legally and democratically elected president and government.

Careful now....

The rebels didn't perform a coup. Yanukovich was voted out by the parliament. That move was just as legal and democratic as his election.

[Sarmatian]

Careful now....

The rebels didn't perform a coup. Yanukovich was voted out by the parliament. That move was just as legal and democratic as his election.

Well, he wasn't elected by the parliament but rather but by majority of the citizens directly. Just because the citizens of the capital city are unhappy with him, that doesn't legitimize or legalize their actions. Even if we agree that the capital city represents the entire population, there still remains a big question - can parliament function democratically under threats of violence?

[HoreTore]

Well, he wasn't elected by the parliament but rather but by majority of the citizens directly. Just because the citizens of the capital city are unhappy with him, that doesn't legitimize or legalize their actions. Even if we agree that the capital city represents the entire population, there still remains a big question - can parliament function democratically under threats of violence?

Can you be considered a democratically elected president when you have used widespread fraud and jailed opposition candidates?

[Sarmatian]

Can you be considered a democratically elected president when you have used widespread fraud and jailed opposition candidates?

You mean, by the method used by every politician in Ukraine since the independence? Ideally, no. In reality, he's as legitimate and as democratically elected as every single one that came before him.

[rvg]

Yanukovich is a political corpse. He may agonize about what came to be and how it came to be, but as a politician he is finished. I am thankful to him for one thing: he didn't engage the military in this confrontation. Had the military gotten involved, things would have been a lot bloodier.

[HoreTore]

You mean, by the method used by every politician in Ukraine since the independence? Ideally, no. In reality, he's as legitimate and as democratically elected as every single one that came before him.

So.... Let's just skip the "democratically elected president"-thing altogether, shall we?


Yanukovich is a political corpse. He may agonize about what came to be and how it came to be, but as a politician he is finished. I am thankful to him for one thing: he didn't engage the military in this confrontation. Had the military gotten involved, things would have been a lot bloodier.

I imagine you said the same thing after the Orange revolution?

[rvg]

I imagine you said the same thing after the Orange revolution?

You imagine wrong.

[Sarmatian]

So.... Let's just skip the "democratically elected president"-thing altogether, shall we?

Fine if we agree that the opposition is exaclty the same as that regard. Now we're stuck with two undemocratically elected and corrupt regimes at odds with each other.

[HoreTore]

Fine if we agree that the opposition is exactly the same as that regard. Now we're stuck with two undemocratically elected and corrupt regimes at odds with each other.

Not sure I would go this far.....

[ICantSpellDawg]

I imagine you said the same thing after the Orange revolution?

After the Orange Revolution, it was a figure of speech. In the next few days it may be a factual statement.

Anyone who says that Revolutions cannot be fought and won with small arms should remind themselves that they can be won with sticks, stones, and petrol bombs.
Americans have the distinct right to keep and bear arms. Hopefully they will avail themselves of these rights while they still have a representative government and are able to. Civilian owned firearms rate is 6.6% in Ukraine and they've done this in 3 months. In the US, the civilian owned firearms rate it is 110%.

I'm just glad that I live in a country where non-violent protest, lawsuits, and reform is still possible.


BTW - you can always count on Sarmatian to defend totalitarian former soviet states. Like clockwork. Serbs see themselves as a tiny Soviet Union. They go nuts when satellite Slavs declare independence anywhere in the world.

[rvg]

BTW - you can always count on Sarmatian to defend totalitarian former soviet states. Like clockwork. Serbs see themselves as a tiny Soviet Union. They go nuts when satellite Slavs declare independence anywhere in the world.

Which is ironic considering how little Russia has actually done for Serbia. They talk a lot about friendship and brotherhood, but when time comes to walk the walk there's hardly anything to show.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

After the Orange Revolution, it was a figure of speech. In the next few days it may be a factual statement.

Anyone who says that Revolutions cannot be fought and won with small arms should remind themselves that they can be won with sticks, stones, and petrol bombs.
Americans have the distinct right to keep and bear arms. Hopefully they will avail themselves of these rights while they still have a representative government and are able to. Civilian owned firearms rate is 6.6% in Ukraine and they've done this in 3 months. In the US, the civilian owned firearms rate it is 110%.

I'm just glad that I live in a country where non-violent protest, lawsuits, and reform is still possible.


BTW - you can always count on Sarmatian to defend totalitarian former soviet states. Like clockwork. Serbs see themselves as a tiny Soviet Union. They go nuts when satellite Slavs declare independence anywhere in the world.

Congrats - you made this about you. It isn't.

The current Regime was dead the moment they employed Police Snipers. If there's anything to take away from this, it's that Ukraine has progressed far enough along the road to democracy that cops shooting people is no longer something that can happen without serious consequences.

Sarmation may feel that the Deputies voted to out the President because they were threatened, but all evidence is that even his own supporters are losing enthusiasm. pro-Kiev protests have broken out in the South and East and the Police are protecting them from pro-Russian counter-protesters.

The Ukrainians have worked it out - the guy who backs the West might not be great, but the guy who backs Russia has his important opponents locked up and the unimportant ones shot.

[ICantSpellDawg]

This is about all of us together in an abstract way making logical connections. Ukraine is just the latest example in a long line of economically depressed, devolving countries. Around the world, powerful interests are entrenching and people are beginning to realize that no one has any authority over anyone else. Ukrainians are economically disadvantaged and intelligent and as a result of their government's unwillingness to bend, it has broken.

All of these occurrences should teach everyone a lesson of what the future holds until governments embrace minarchism. I take it that because we live in the west, we should feel like we live "at the end of history" and are merely waiting for everyone to catch up to us? I don't buy that. Americans are just as prone to corruption and interested in power accumulation and abuse. Technology will just make it more lethal to protest against them.

[Husar]

Americans have the distinct right to keep and bear arms.

The thread title is Ukraine.


the guy who backs the West might not be great

"He" just looks great. ~D

I like your analysis and sincerely hope it is true. If the majority of a country's population is not willing to tolerate dictatorial behaviour, that's usually a rather good sign.

[ICantSpellDawg]

In the U.S., lethal force would be warranted against protesters who were using the level of force that these protesters were using. Destruction of property and imminent threat of bodily harm causes police to open fire in public places, often killing subjects and pedestrians for much less than throwing petrol bombs and shooting at police. The US government would have acted more brutally within the first few days of a similar protest. I was actually blown away by the restraint of the Ukrainian government over the last 3 months, as corrupt as they were.

Additionally, the order to use lethal force came well after sporadic government fire opened up on protesters. It has been argued that the government gave this order after the situation had spiraled completely out of control in a manner intended to reclaim some legitimacy and control over police who were acting like scared grade-schoolers by that point.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The thread title is Ukraine.



"He" just looks great. ~D

I like your analysis and sincerely hope it is true. If the majority of a country's population is not willing to tolerate dictatorial behaviour, that's usually a rather good sign.

I saw Tymoshenko - the two and a half years in prison have not been kind.

Whatever she may have done, and she's not squeaky clean, she was locked up BECAUSE she was a political problem.

So while I don't blame Sarmation for his Cynicism, I think this is more about the abuse of Power the current President has undertaken. We know the next President will have less power, whoever he is. The current one is definitely toast, after they broke into his compound and discovered him living like a King.


In the U.S., lethal force would be warranted against protesters who were using the level of force that these protesters were using. Destruction of property and imminent threat of bodily harm causes police to open fire in public places, often killing subjects and pedestrians for much less than throwing petrol bombs and shooting at police. The US government would have acted more brutally within the first few days of a similar protest. I was actually blown away by the restraint of the Ukrainian government over the last 3 months, as corrupt as they were.

Additionally, the order to use lethal force came well after sporadic government fire opened up on protesters. It has been argued that the government gave this order after the situation had spiraled completely out of control in a manner intended to reclaim some legitimacy and control over police who were acting like scared grade-schoolers by that point.

I have consistently said that the US is governed like a Third World Country, and I stand by that.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Statues of Lenin toppled:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26306737

Looks like the Kievan Russ are sending the Muscovites a clear message.

[ICantSpellDawg]

I have consistently said that the US is governed like a Third World Country, and I stand by that.

Then why would you demean the connection that I was trying to make? I suggest that authorities all over the world become paranoid when they see these things happen. The riots and protests that have been sweeping the eurasian/north african region are metastatic and getting closer to our own capitals by the day. Neglect of this reality suggests western "end of history" chauvanism. Lessons should be learned now, before we are forced to learn them in the field.

[Montmorency]

Don't imagine that the factors that encouraged uprisings in the European periphery are extant in Western Europe or even the US - it's pure fantasy.

Even more fantastic than the notion that protests in the world are driven by "minarchism" or "devolution".

Go back to Tweeting about Tibor Machan or whatever.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Protesters breached the private estate of the now ex-president and took pictures of it all. The dude had a really nice place.

[Kagemusha]

After the Orange Revolution, it was a figure of speech. In the next few days it may be a factual statement.

Anyone who says that Revolutions cannot be fought and won with small arms should remind themselves that they can be won with sticks, stones, and petrol bombs.
Americans have the distinct right to keep and bear arms. Hopefully they will avail themselves of these rights while they still have a representative government and are able to. Civilian owned firearms rate is 6.6% in Ukraine and they've done this in 3 months. In the US, the civilian owned firearms rate it is 110%.

I'm just glad that I live in a country where non-violent protest, lawsuits, and reform is still possible.


BTW - you can always count on Sarmatian to defend totalitarian former soviet states. Like clockwork. Serbs see themselves as a tiny Soviet Union. They go nuts when satellite Slavs declare independence anywhere in the world.

Lol! Civilians can outfight an organized army. Really give me a break will you...Put some US civilians with their semi autos against company of regular army or Marines with indirect fire support and all you will see is lots of dead civilians and fire support is not even needed.

Only way revolutions will happen is that the authorities that have the real monopoly of violence refuse to use or hamper themselves in using full force. Your statement is simply ridiculous. Yes civilians can make life hard for soldiers, but that is that, nothing more.

And just to keep repeating myself. What we are witnessing is not a simple revolution, but a pro western faction taking over by force. While they dont by far represent the whole country and dont have such support. It may sound fine and dandy in partisan political rhetoric that a peoples revolution is happening in Ukraine and while its the pro western faction taking over it is somehow "good" guys taking over, but you really need to take a second look to understand the full situation..

[a completely inoffensive name]

And just to keep repeating myself. What we are witnessing is not a simple revolution, but a pro western faction taking over by force. While they dont by far represent the whole country and dont have such support. It may sound fine and dandy in partisan political rhetoric that a peoples revolution is happening in Ukraine and while its the pro western faction taking over it is somehow "good" guys taking over, but you really need to take a second look to understand the full situation..

Isn't every revolution some faction taking over by force? There was a fair percentage of the population in the colonies that were loyalists when the US Revolution occurred...

[Kagemusha]

Isn't every revolution some faction taking over by force? There was a fair percentage of the population in the colonies that were loyalists when the US Revolution occurred...

This is not a rhetoric but real life. If this will go down south as i am afraid it will. The Eastern and Western part of Ukraine will be soon in war and at that point who is "right" or "wrong" does not mean anything when we will be witnessing a human tragedy at really disturbing level. While EU and Russia will be in a really difficult spot and US just cant sail to Black Sea and cruise missile everything back to stone age bringing "freedom" in the process.

[Fragony]

Can someone explain to ignorant me how there is such a thing as a western and a Russian part. I have been watching this with amazement, I have no idea what's going on over there.

[a completely inoffensive name]

This is not a rhetoric but real life. If this will go down south as i am afraid it will. The Eastern and Western part of Ukraine will be soon in war and at that point who is "right" or "wrong" does not mean anything when we will be witnessing a human tragedy at really disturbing level. While EU and Russia will be in a really difficult spot and US just cant sail to Black Sea and cruise missile everything back to stone age bringing "freedom" in the process.

All uprisings and revolutions are tragic. They are, by definition, the result of a collapsing state. There was never a conflict where the sides played out like a Tolkien book. But that does not mean that we should have tried our best to prevent this conflict from happening or that we should refuse to pick sides. Personally, if there really is such a staunch divide between west Ukraine and east, I would support simply dividing the two and erring on the side of self determination.

[HoreTore]

I think it's been proven thoroughly over the last dozen years that while the power of poorly armed and poorly trained people isn't enough to win all the time, it is certainly enough to win.

No. The "power" of poorly armed and trained people is never enough to win. However, they may die in such numbers that the powers that be gets tired of killing them, as is what happened in Ukraine.

[Ironside]

Can someone explain to ignorant me how there is such a thing as a western and a Russian part. I have been watching this with amazement, I have no idea what's going on over there.

Think Wallonia and Flanders. Very different historical backround of course, but the same principle of a division within a country.

ICantSpellDawg, to give a few scenarios:

Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players goes, "No". Usually a revolution. Gun ownage irrellevant.
Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players goes, "Sure thing". Very bloody suppression. Gun ownage insuffient.
Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players goes, "Sure thing", but they lack a large enough army. Civil war. Gun ownage matters.
Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players splits and say both "No and Sure thing". Civil war. Gun ownage matters, but less the stronger the the army is.

What it tells you are that if you don't have an army that can massacre your own population, gun ownage is irrelevant. And that the US, with its very strong army is a country were gun ownage matters little, because the US military strength will overshadow the civilian gun ownership.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Really tired of this hypothetical coming up all the time. You really have no idea how effective an armed populace will be until an actual revolution happens. Talking about what would happen is the equivalent to talking about the results of hypothetical wars. We don't all sit around and speak confidently about the tactics that would be used in a US-China fight, the amount of people that would die on each side and who would win in what amount of time and then go, "Yep and that is what would happen, your suggestion is wildly unrealistic!".

Give it a rest guys.

[Sarmatian]

C
Sarmation may feel that the Deputies voted to out the President because they were threatened, but all evidence is that even his own supporters are losing enthusiasm. pro-Kiev protests have broken out in the South and East and the Police are protecting them from pro-Russian counter-protesters.

The Ukrainians have worked it out - the guy who backs the West might not be great, but the guy who backs Russia has his important opponents locked up and the unimportant ones shot.

Where's the evidence? I'd really like to see it. Factually, the Rada wasn't willing to depose Yanukovych until protesters took control of it. Which means, either they were afraid of Yanukovych government or they are afraid of the rebels now.

Former chairman of Rada, Volodymyr Rybak, claims he was beaten up after he resigned his position, which, if true, doesn't lend credibility to the opposition.


I saw Tymoshenko - the two and a half years in prison have not been kind.

Whatever she may have done, and she's not squeaky clean, she was locked up BECAUSE she was a political problem.

So while I don't blame Sarmation for his Cynicism, I think this is more about the abuse of Power the current President has undertaken. We know the next President will have less power, whoever he is. The current one is definitely toast, after they broke into his compound and discovered him living like a King.


Timoshenko was a byword for corruption during her term, and that, coupled with some disastrous moves she tried to pull and failed was the reason she lost the election.


Can someone explain to ignorant me how there is such a thing as a western and a Russian part. I have been watching this with amazement, I have no idea what's going on over there.

Ukraine was a part of the Russian Empire. Some parts of it also belonged to other empires, namely Austria and Poland in the past. Over the years, they developed their separate national identity. After the dissolution of the Russian Empire, Ukraine was recognized as a separate entity and joined the SU. In the 1950's, Ukraine was ceded what is now southeastern part of Ukraine by Russia. Since it was a single country, it was just an administrative change. Those parts were never part of Ukraine before and very little Ukrainians lived there. After the USSR dissolved, Ukraine was recognized as an independent country with those borders. Additionally, Russians are a majority in the eastern part of Ukraine.

So, the eastern part is more pro-Russian while the western is more pro-EU.

[Kagemusha]

All uprisings and revolutions are tragic. They are, by definition, the result of a collapsing state. There was never a conflict where the sides played out like a Tolkien book. But that does not mean that we should have tried our best to prevent this conflict from happening or that we should refuse to pick sides. Personally, if there really is such a staunch divide between west Ukraine and east, I would support simply dividing the two and erring on the side of self determination.

I think your solution is a solid one, but the thing is that it is really not our hands to resolve this. EU cant support such solution because of two folded reasoning. First it really does not want to mess up relations with Russia which is realpolitiks and secondary, because of the fragmenting tendencies like Scotland, Catalonia and Basque country within EU, as it would give an unwanted precedent for such. When it comes to Russia, who knows. Russia is Russia and if anything unpredictable and Russia has substantially lower treshold to interfere by military means compared to EU countries.

[Husar]

I have no idea

That's not unusual lately. I recommend you watch some quality media news because they explain it in almost every video on the subject.

What baffles me is why ICSD thinks Western governments should militarize their police forces more so they can kill civilians faster once this inevitably happens here, too. Because it's nowhere near going to happen here. People from the respective countries come here because even they know the situation is much better in the west than it is in their countries.

The whole armed populace thing is rubbish, with 6% weapons per household or what that figure was the Ukrainians did just fine, only proves that the population doesn't need guns. If the government wants to kill everyone and rule an empty country that's their choice, not sure what the point of that would be though. McDonald's is much better at keeping people away from revolutions anyway.

[Kagemusha]

Really tired of this hypothetical coming up all the time. You really have no idea how effective an armed populace will be until an actual revolution happens. Talking about what would happen is the equivalent to talking about the results of hypothetical wars. We don't all sit around and speak confidently about the tactics that would be used in a US-China fight, the amount of people that would die on each side and who would win in what amount of time and then go, "Yep and that is what would happen, your suggestion is wildly unrealistic!".

Give it a rest guys.

Blah,blah keep on dreaming.. How effective are insurgents in Iraq? The fact is that armed rising needs substantial support from organized military force either from within or outside. The days of musket are long gone.

[HoreTore]

So, the eastern part is more pro-Russian while the western is more pro-EU.

The impression I've got over the last month or so, is that the western part is more anti-russian and pro-independence than it is pro-EU...

[Fragony]

That's not unusual lately.

Ah yes, I forgot the [insert snide remarks here] part. Should have seen it comming.

[Sarmatian]

Pro-independence? From whom? Ukrainians wishing independence from independent Ukraine?

[HoreTore]

Pro-independence? From whom? Ukrainians wishing independence from independent Ukraine?

That's my impression, yes.

[Sarmatian]

That's my impression, yes.

While it would be interesting to discuss metaphysical aspect of it, let's stick to reality in this thread.

[Husar]

Ah yes, I forgot the [insert snide remarks here] part. Should have seen it comming.

The division of Ukraine in terms of western and eastern preferences was even discussed in this thread and it's certainly being discussed in the media. I just couldn't resist when you said you have no idea what it's about because it seems really easy to get this information, even accidentally. If your typical sources did not cover this then you may want to look for better sources.

[Fragony]

That's my impression, yes.

Same here, without really knowing what I am talking about, just an impression. Europhiles kinda freak me out here (don't mind the Dutch, it's about the video)
http://www.geenstijl.nl/mt/archieven/2014/02/bassiehof_closereaden_met_verhofstadt.html

Wut?

[Fragony]

The division of Ukraine in terms of western and eastern preferences was even discussed in this thread and it's certainly being discussed in the media. I just couldn't resist when you said you have no idea what it's about because it seems really easy to get this information, even accidentally. If your typical sources did not cover this then you may want to look for better sources.

Resist this :daisy:. There is obviously more going on here.

[HoreTore]

While it would be interesting to discuss metaphysical aspect of it, let's stick to reality in this thread.

It is indeed reality. It's my impression that the west seek some kind of independence/detachment from the east. Now, whether that means splitting the country in two, chasing out the russians, assimilation of the russians, turning the russians into second-class citizens or something else, I'm quite unsure...

[Ironside]

Pro-independence? From whom? Ukrainians wishing independence from independent Ukraine?

Percieved and actual Russian influence.


Really tired of this hypothetical coming up all the time. You really have no idea how effective an armed populace will be until an actual revolution happens. Talking about what would happen is the equivalent to talking about the results of hypothetical wars. We don't all sit around and speak confidently about the tactics that would be used in a US-China fight, the amount of people that would die on each side and who would win in what amount of time and then go, "Yep and that is what would happen, your suggestion is wildly unrealistic!".

Give it a rest guys.

Mildly topic relevant. How much money and how would you need to transfer it to topple Putin in a popular rebellion, while keeping it moderatly secret?

The answer is that for the moment, it's impossible. Because we know from historical experience a dim understanding on how strong influence something like that can do and can't. We don't need actual numbers. Can Sweden conquer the US before the end of 2014? We have no idea on the exact details of such a war, but we do know enough to say that the answer is no.

It's similar with my statements. We do know how successful revolutions have looked like, so we got a vague picture. Could a more militant response, possible by high firearm ownership, from getting shot by police sniper cause enough room to provoke a military response? Maybe, but that's an example of we not knowing enough.

We do know the combat efficiency of US troops, from Afghanistan and Iraq. Are the average American civilian with firearms going to be more dangerous than a similar person in those countries? No.
Were they even close to defeat the US troops so much that the US troops surrendered to them? Hell NO! And that's the situation. In such a suppression of a full rebellion, the troops can't simply withdraw, and the leaders in charge won't care about minor losses.

Can a vastly superior number of untrained troops defeat trained troops with similar weaponry? Yes, in particular through attrition.
Are advanced weaponry extremely influencial were it exists? Yes. Would allowance to use such weaponry completely change the picture? Yes. Does the US military have an abundance of such weaponry? Yes.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Think Wallonia and Flanders. Very different historical backround of course, but the same principle of a division within a country.

ICantSpellDawg, to give a few scenarios:

Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players goes, "No". Usually a revolution. Gun ownage irrellevant.
Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players goes, "Sure thing". Very bloody suppression. Gun ownage insuffient.
Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players goes, "Sure thing", but they lack a large enough army. Civil war. Gun ownage matters.
Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players splits and say both "No and Sure thing". Civil war. Gun ownage matters, but less the stronger the the army is.

What it tells you are that if you don't have an army that can massacre your own population, gun ownage is irrelevant. And that the US, with its very strong army is a country were gun ownage matters little, because the US military strength will overshadow the civilian gun ownership.

You've seen generals resign and defect in Ukraine, resisting the call to use forces to expel the protestors. Do you think the entirety of the US military would back the regime? Would there be defections? You can pretend that some form of social collapse is impossible in the west, but I don't believe it.
Attrition by the military and sabotage of the means by which the technology functions are always key in successful insurrections. Currently, the US military can't win against a people that they don't care about, using endless resources to fight them, in a small area of the world. The US military could control an an area the size of the United States with a tremendous number of relatively intelligent people who are family members with dwindling and sabotaged resources and dramatic attrition?

The smugness that comes out of you guys, in spite of the countless wars, coups, revolutions, civil wars that are the hallmark of human progress and history, even within the past 100 years - is breathtaking.

Obviously, violent insurrection in the US would be pointless and terrible as things are otherwise progressing slowly but well. Still, one or 2 more terrible administrations and who knows what to think. They keep getting worse, even as we continue to grow as a country. I don't feel like the US is as stable as they suggest it is.

Maybe I'm just getting older, but it seems like no one has any respect for the absurd laws that govern them and tax rates are skyrocketing as incomes decrease. Unemployment is not getting better, people are dropping out of the workforce or employed at part time jobs. The status of the US has dropped precipitously in the world. Revolution in the next 10 years? Nah - but if stagnation stays where it is, it could get pretty bad in the longer term, turning the country into a corrupt backwater.

[Sarmatian]

The situation is complicated, definitely, mostly because a majority of population identify itself as Ukrainian, except in some areas, notably those ceded to Ukraine by Russia during the Soviet era, like Crimea.

Almost entire population of Ukraine is bilingual. The Russian language dominates on a national level - 60% of the newspapers are in Russian and 80% of the magazines. On radio, 3% of the songs are in Ukrainian, 60% are in Russian. Even in Kiev, most of people use Russian in informal communication. Yet, the Ukrainian government doesn't recognize Russian as an official language, but only as a minority language.

The number of people saying Russian language is their first language, or, let's say, those considering themselves ethnic Russians is
12314

The map showing the actual usage of language.
12315

So, it's not really Russians, but Russophone Ukrainians.

[ICantSpellDawg]

The situation is complicated, definitely, mostly because a majority of population identify itself as Ukrainian, except in some areas, notably those ceded to Ukraine by Russia during the Soviet era, like Crimea.

Almost entire population of Ukraine is bilingual. The Russian language dominates on a national level - 60% of the newspapers are in Russian and 80% of the magazines. On radio, 3% of the songs are in Ukrainian, 60% are in Russian. Even in Kiev, most of people use Russian in informal communication. Yet, the Ukrainian government doesn't recognize Russian as an official language, but only as a minority language.

The number of people saying Russian language is their first language, or, let's say, those considering themselves ethnic Russians is
12314

The map showing the actual usage of language.
12315

So, it's not really Russians, but Russophone Ukrainians.

The majority of the Irish spoke English when they broke away. Language does not imply political leaning - for example, Kiev is primarily Russian speaking, and look where that took them. I've understood the divide to be more nuanced than an East/West thing, with pockets here and there supporting the opposition. However, while opposition support is not limited to the west, party of regions support seems to be limited to the South and East.

[Sarmatian]

The majority of the Irish spoke English when they broke away. Language does not imply political leaning - for example, Kiev is primarily Russian speaking, and look where that took them. I've understood the divide to be more nuanced than an East/West thing, with pockets here and there supporting the opposition. However, while opposition support is not limited to the west, party of regions support seems to be limited to the South and East.

Politically, no. On page 2 I posted election results. click (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?146724-Ukraine&p=2053576741&viewfull=1#post2053576741). The east firmly behind Yanukovych, the west firmly behind Timoshenko.

[ICantSpellDawg]

That was Tymoshenko. I dont trust her either. I'm not convinced that she didn't belong in prison.

[HoreTore]

The situation is complicated, definitely, mostly because a majority of population identify itself as Ukrainian, except in some areas, notably those ceded to Ukraine by Russia during the Soviet era, like Crimea.

Almost entire population of Ukraine is bilingual. The Russian language dominates on a national level - 60% of the newspapers are in Russian and 80% of the magazines. On radio, 3% of the songs are in Ukrainian, 60% are in Russian. Even in Kiev, most of people use Russian in informal communication. Yet, the Ukrainian government doesn't recognize Russian as an official language, but only as a minority language.

The number of people saying Russian language is their first language, or, let's say, those considering themselves ethnic Russians is
12314

The map showing the actual usage of language.
12315

So, it's not really Russians, but Russophone Ukrainians.

....And it's this situation I believe the western part wants to change, and turn the entire Ukraine into the Ukraine they want it to be(ie. no smelly Russian culture).

It's nationalism, Sarmatian, it's not a rational feeling.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Then why would you demean the connection that I was trying to make? I suggest that authorities all over the world become paranoid when they see these things happen. The riots and protests that have been sweeping the eurasian/north african region are metastatic and getting closer to our own capitals by the day. Neglect of this reality suggests western "end of history" chauvanism. Lessons should be learned now, before we are forced to learn them in the field.

Errrrr London riots?

You need to stop living in a fish bowl.

The Ukrainian government was toppled by its own use of worse, which robbed it of legitimacy. Imagine if the US Govt have besieged the occupy camp for months, then opened fire with snipers.


This is not a rhetoric but real life. If this will go down south as i am afraid it will. The Eastern and Western part of Ukraine will be soon in war and at that point who is "right" or "wrong" does not mean anything when we will be witnessing a human tragedy at really disturbing level. While EU and Russia will be in a really difficult spot and US just cant sail to Black Sea and cruise missile everything back to stone age bringing "freedom" in the process.

This is highly unlikely, Ukraine is wedged between Russia and the EU - and war would see Peacekeeper troops on the ground in days. While war is not impossible there are, as yet, no indications that anyone thinks it is going to happen.


Where's the evidence? I'd really like to see it. Factually, the Rada wasn't willing to depose Yanukovych until protesters took control of it. Which means, either they were afraid of Yanukovych government or they are afraid of the rebels now.

Former chairman of Rada, Volodymyr Rybak, claims he was beaten up after he resigned his position, which, if true, doesn't lend credibility to the opposition.

Well, looks like he and his Guard fled - and then he was impeached. Yanukovych realised he had lost control and was going to lose power, word is he tried to escape to Russia. I think the Rada saw that once the government ordered the use of lethal force it had lost legitimacy and they needed to stop backing it. It's not like it's only the opposition, or like they have guns to their heads. His own party have started to desert him!

[Sarmatian]

Well, looks like he and his Guard fled - and then he was impeached. Yanukovych realised he had lost control and was going to lose power, word is he tried to escape to Russia. I think the Rada saw that once the government ordered the use of lethal force it had lost legitimacy and they needed to stop backing it. It's not like it's only the opposition, or like they have guns to their heads. His own party have started to desert him!

Except there was brawling, threats of force and violence in the parliament before the vote.

I don't know whose "word" it is, but every news agency reported he is in Kharkov and he said he isn't thinking about leaving the country.

[rvg]

I don't know whose "word" it is, but every news agency reported he is in Kharkov and he said he isn't thinking about leaving the country.

He isn't thinking about it because he tried and failed. The border guards did not allow his plane to take off.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Perhaps the results here and in Egypt will lead more rulers to negotiate earlier in hopes of staving off this sort of result.

CR

[rvg]

Perhaps the results here and in Egypt will lead more rulers to negotiate earlier in hopes of staving off this sort of result.

Yeah, none of this would have happened if he didn't send in the riot police to disperse the protests back on November 30.

[ICantSpellDawg]

The Ukrainian government was toppled by its own use of worse, which robbed it of legitimacy. Imagine if the US Govt have besieged the occupy camp for months, then opened fire with snipers.




Occupy was a peaceful protest. There is no question that if the protestors began throwing Molotov's at police that snipers would have been employed to shoot and kill anyone armed with more than a twig. Just watching the level off hyper violence employed by US police on unarmed peaceful protestors could lead you to no other conclusion, you have admitted as much. If the brutality of the police in Ukraine was the breaking point of the governments power after 3 months, and you know that the US would employ similar if not more brutal tactics, what then would the result in the US be?

[HoreTore]

Occupy was a peaceful protest.

So was the initial Ukrainian protest, until the police decided to give the protesters a thumping.

[ICantSpellDawg]

So was the initial Ukrainian protest, until the police decided to give the protesters a thumping.

I don't remember it that way. In the US, when riot police arrive, protestors mostly yell and get pissed, but seldom fight back when police advance. The worst that you see them do is resist arrest. In Ukraine, protestors physically fought riot police when moved in upon, which would make force against them legitimate by western standards.

[HoreTore]

In Ukraine, protestors physically fought riot police when moved in upon, which would make force against them legitimate by western standards.

Only if the "move in" was legitimate.

It certainly wasn't by western standards.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Only if the "move in" was legitimate.

It certainly wasn't by western standards.

OK, but as a leftist activist, are you or are you not impressed by the level of restraint used by Ukrainian riot police over the past 3 months? It would have been much more brutal a suppression in Russia, Belarus, Venezuela, and the USA. In the US it would have become brutal for the sheer fact that no permit was approved, whatever the hell that means.

[rvg]

OK, but as a leftist activist, are you or are you not impressed by the level of restraint used by Ukrainian riot police over the past 3 months? It would have been much more brutal a suppression in Russia, Belarus, Venezuela, and the USA. In the US it would have become brutal for the sheer fact that no permit was approved, whatever the hell that means.

When the cops in Kiev brutally dispersed the first (very small) anti-government meeting putting a bunch of 20-something students in hospital with broken limbs, they opened themselves up for retaliation and the country for a revolution.

[Sarmatian]

Only if the "move in" was legitimate.

It certainly wasn't by western standards.

Debatable. During Occupy Wall Street, protesters were given an area where they can stand and protest. Moving from that area, or, God forbid, trying to interfere with anyone's day would have brought a response from the police.

You may like their goals or not, but what protesters did would have brought a response by the police in any western country.

Meanwhile, in another dictatorship, France, police used tear gas and water cannons to disperse protesters. EU and US are threatening sanctions to France and calling Hollande to back down. Oh, wait....

[lars573]

Debatable. During Occupy Wall Street, protesters were given an area where they can stand and protest. Moving from that area, or, God forbid, trying to interfere with anyone's day would have brought a response from the police.

You may like their goals or not, but what protesters did would have brought a response by the police in any western country.

Meanwhile, in another dictatorship, France, police used tear gas and water cannons to disperse protesters. EU and US are threatening sanctions to France and calling Hollande to back down. Oh, wait....
Granted. But would a western nation have used live ammo and snipers on them? No, even if some were armed, they'd have used water cannons and tear gas. At most rubber bullets. You know weapons and tactics designed to not kill 100 civilians. And make the government look like goons ordering around gangs of thugs.

[HoreTore]

OK, but as a leftist activist

Wut?

Anyway, I have a simple standard for unnecessary use of force:

Did the police use any kind of force? If yes, then it was unnecessary. If no, then they used the appropriate amount.

[HoreTore]

You may like their goals or not, but what protesters did would have brought a response by the police in any western country.

I love how you specify exactly what actions they committed.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Granted. But would a western nation have used live ammo and snipers on them? No, even if some were armed, they'd have used water cannons and tear gas. At most rubber bullets. You know weapons and tactics designed to not kill 100 civilians. And make the government look like goons ordering around gangs of thugs.

BS - no american would dare start firing on the government else they would be annihilated. The US government would use lethal force to halt a violent protest where firearms were present or being used

[Sarmatian]

Granted. But would a western nation have used live ammo and snipers on them? No, even if some were armed, they'd have used water cannons and tear gas. At most rubber bullets. You know weapons and tactics designed to not kill 100 civilians. And make the government look like goons ordering around gangs of thugs.

It's all about context. Is it murder if you shoot someone who throws a Molotov cocktail on you? If you read comments from "camp commanders", you'd see that protesters were constantly provoking the police, using makeshift slings to propel Molotov cocktail and rocks at the police, and that they were armed with live ammo. Now, rocks aren't that dangerous for a riot police officer in all that armour but getting hit by a Molotov cocktail can really ruin your day.
You'd also see that many of them simply ignored the truce and talks and and continued their attacks on the police and that they used live ammo. Opposition leaders were losing control and the mob mentality took over. They were capturing police officers and taking them hostage.

It was a revolution, and a violent one. As I've said previously, I totally agree with Lincoln in regard of people's right to overthrow their government. The problem here is that they don't have support of the entire population. Some may agree with them, but calling them peaceful protesters, is totally out.

The saddest part, which Ukrainians are going to realize in the coming years, if this succeeds, is that they've just installed the same criminals with a different foreign policy.


I love how you specify exactly what actions they committed.

Is this enough or do you want more specification?

[rvg]

BS - no american would dare start firing on the government else they would be annihilated. The US government would use lethal force to halt a violent protest where firearms were present or being used
The moment cops shoot up a demonstration is the moment when people will go home, get their guns and make those cops pay. Cops are only brave when they know they're facing an unarmed crowd. The moment the crowd fires back cops will run with their tails between their legs.

[HoreTore]

Is this enough or do you want more specification?

No, you did not specify what actions justified the police crackdown on the pro-EU demonstration back in November.

[ICantSpellDawg]

The moment cops shoot up a demonstration is the moment when people will go home, get their guns and make those cops pay. Cops are only brave when they know they're facing an unarmed crowd. The moment the crowd fires back cops will run with their tails between their legs.

It takes months before police back down. Ukrainian opposition engaged in hyper violence with a successful PR campaign which overwhelmed the government and broke the siege, causing a catastrophic rout and total collapse of the regime. Most people wouldn't have predicted this result in 3 months time, that's why decisions were made in the way that they were by the regime.

The US government has quite a bit more hold out time in reserve. It would be unlikely that the people in the US who have protested would be able to match the hyper violence that the government would employ. The government has, of late, been picking fights with segments of the population that would employ hyper violence. This is where the Party of Regions screwed up and invited ruin. It is one thing to pick fights with peaceniks, another entirely to pick fights with paramilitary, or populist nutjubs that number in the hundreds of thousands, if not millions - many with military training.

People are dangerous animals. Never underestimate the power of the simple human being to devastate his environment, if we've
learned anything. I believe in peaceful protest and reform, especially where we are fortunate enough to have the ability to engage in it. Violence solves arithmetical problems, but creates exponential ones in its wake.

I am also not naive and I don't expect governments to roll over when threatened or powerful interests to respect the lives or dignity of civilians anywhere in the world - not even the West. There are monsters waiting for their turn to rule, either on the throne or from behind the curtain.

In a country where armed, no knock swat raids and shootings are deemed legitimate in non violent, personal use marijuana cases - is it far fetched to think that thrown stones during a protest wouldn't elicit a deadly response?

[Sarmatian]

No, you did not specify what actions justified the police crackdown on the pro-EU demonstration back in November.

Trying to break the police cordon that was next to them. Police used the tear gas and batons, protesters used tear gas, fire crackers and rocks.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Trying to break the police cordon that was next to them. Police used the tear gas and batons, protesters used tear gas, fire crackers and rocks.

In fairness to Sarmatian, I remember that the protests were other than civil from the get go, in small parts. I remember water, rocks and firecrackers being thrown at police before the repression.

Still, I recognize that the regime was autocratic and taking Ukraine on an awful path. I am thrilled with the result so far.

Remember Kent State?
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings

Jackson?
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jackson_State_killings

Oakland?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QngE6kKk8Lg

Small numbers of provacateurs are often blamed for larger scale repression. My mom was arrested peacefully protesting outside of an abortion clinic when I was young. She remembers a police officer breaking/dislocating a handcuffed mans arm when they got into the truck and kicking someone else. People in the US are human - prone to the same uplifting emotions and the same despicable ones

[rvg]

In a country where armed, no knock swat raids and shootings are deemed legitimate in non violent, personal use marijuana cases - is it far fetched to think that thrown stones during a protest wouldn't elicit a deadly response?

Stones from protesters --> bullets from cops --> lots of bullets from protesters.

Crowd is a curious being. Violence can either scare it or make it angry. An armed crowd is far more likely to get angry than get scared into submission. An angry crowd armed with small arms would crush the police or SWAT for that matter. They aren't trained to deal with large numbers of firearm wielding combatants.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Stones from protesters --> bullets from cops --> lots of bullets from protesters.

Crowd is a curious being. Violence can either scare it or make it angry. An armed crowd is far more likely to get angry than get scared into submission. An angry crowd armed with small arms would crush the police or SWAT for that matter. They aren't trained to deal with large numbers of firearm wielding combatants.

Police force is determined based on threat. If there are 1000 unarmed protestors, there might be 200 riot officers. If there were 1000 armed protestors, there might be 500 armed riot police with helicopters, roof snipers, and national guard on call. Defence of scale. Armed protestors would not congregate in the same area for long, instead scattering and pulling back in the event of repression. All variables create new responses in your opponent. If you change tactic, expect your opponent do react.

[rvg]

Police force is determined based on threat. If there are 1000 unarmed protestors, there might be 200 riot officers. If there were 1000 armed protestors, there might be 500 armed riot police with helicopters, roof snipers, and national guard on call. Defence of scale. Armed protestors would not congregate in the same area for long, instead scattering and pulling back in the event of repression. All variables create new responses in your opponent. If you change tactic, expect your opponent do react.

What if we're talking about 200000 protesters like in Kiev? 100000 cops? :laugh4:

Once the crowd gathers a certain critical mass, cops won't dare attack.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Except there was brawling, threats of force and violence in the parliament before the vote.

I don't know whose "word" it is, but every news agency reported he is in Kharkov and he said he isn't thinking about leaving the country.

Brawling in the chamber, not heard anything about protestors breaking in.


He isn't thinking about it because he tried and failed. The border guards did not allow his plane to take off.

So I've heard.


Occupy was a peaceful protest. There is no question that if the protestors began throwing Molotov's at police that snipers would have been employed to shoot and kill anyone armed with more than a twig. Just watching the level off hyper violence employed by US police on unarmed peaceful protestors could lead you to no other conclusion, you have admitted as much. If the brutality of the police in Ukraine was the breaking point of the governments power after 3 months, and you know that the US would employ similar if not more brutal tactics, what then would the result in the US be?

Based on your attitude - the US is a much less civilised country, so you'd put up with a greater amount of violence before Congress began debating if the President needed to be impeached.

More objectively - Occupy did not become violent because the New York Police are more civilised than the Ukrainian ones, and their commanders more canny - Maidan has escalated due to the security forces trying to supress legitimate protests using violence.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Brawling in the chamber, not heard anything about protestors breaking in.



So I've heard.



Based on your attitude - the US is a much less civilised country, so you'd put up with a greater amount of violence before Congress began debating if the President needed to be impeached.

More objectively - Occupy did not become violent because the New York Police are more civilised than the Ukrainian ones, and their commanders more canny - Maidan has escalated due to the security forces trying to supress legitimate protests using violence.

Let's see how it would go if protestors began protesting outside of "free speech zones". You are the one who said that we are governed like a third world country. What did you mean by that?

[Sarmatian]

Brawling in the chamber, not heard anything about protestors breaking in.


Brawling in the parliament, threats of violence to you and your family - would you in that case dare to vote against?

[ICantSpellDawg]

I am concerned with the thugs who have taken the interim premiership. They do look like mob connected black-shirts and pro-western factions should be concerned and mobilize to keep on for the shortest period of time possible.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Well... Occupy Wall Street wasn't even violent, and it was broken up from the outside by police (in many cities, especially New York and Oakland), and heavily infiltrated by undercover officers that finished the job. There is zero tolerance for protest that threatens the economic status quo in America. Sure, sure, you can go protest for gay marriage or some other feel good social issue, but for real change? Oh hell no, government will break you.

Then why would he suggest that we are free from this similar threat here? If there is corruption and brutality, wouldn't you expect it to get bad enough to come to a head over time?

Americans should arm themselves, to a lawful but serious extent. Function always as a peaceful and law-abiding citizen, doing what you can to reform and eliminate as many laws as you can - but arm for the worst in the event that the law serves merely as a shield for those who would abuse you and take away your rights and opportunity.

[ICantSpellDawg]

2012-2013 FBI report (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/preliminary-semiannual-uniform-crime-report-january-june-2013/tables/table_1_january_to_june_2012-2013_percent_change_by_population_group.xls#disablemobile) is out BTW. Crime rate is down considerably after the hottest year for gun sales in most of recorded history.
Correlation? Causation? Draw your own conclusions - but buy now and do it safely based on your risk factors. Euroweenies, push for reform to laws that recognize the right to hedge the risk of government abuse.

[Crazed Rabbit]

BS - no american would dare start firing on the government else they would be annihilated. The US government would use lethal force to halt a violent protest where firearms were present or being used

I believe this to be correct.

At Washington State University, in 1998, there was a relatively small riot; http://www.historylink.org/index.cfm?DisplayPage=output.cfm&file_id=7876

~200 students were involved and three bottles and rocks at police officers responding to the incident.

Years later a WSU officer was talking about alcohol in the dorm I lived in at WSU and said that there was a point were officers were surrounded and came close to opening fire on students.

That's without any firearms being involved on the part of students. The campus now has an armored personnel carrier.

I think if there was a protest and guns were fired and some police saw one of their own go down or get hit they'd respond with lethal force by firing into crowd. In Boston after they won the world series, police were firing "less lethal" pepper spray bullets from paintball like guns into the crowds and killed somebody; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Victoria_Snelgrove

That was without a lot of violence directed at the police.


which would make force against them legitimate by western standards.

At least US standards, which I think is both factual but morally wrong.

CR

[ICantSpellDawg]

My underlying point is that we are not immune, and that if they can win freedoms from a tin pot with sticks and stones then we have a shot and hedging using the rights guaranteed by our Constitution.

All over the world, governments and corporations are tightening and centralizing power at the expense of your rights. To ignore it and prevent citizens from effecting defense is the wrong move. It doesn't mean that we are all screwed, it just requires more vigilance and a greater stumbling block to the plans of those who would subordinate you. We have a bright future ahead, but not if we put our faith in those who would enslave us at the expense of our natural rights.

[ICantSpellDawg]

It cracks me up when my old army buddies, many of whom are Tea Party types, start talking like that. Lots of bluster, but they don't mean it because they know better. They never called the army in Ukraine and sent em to work, and that's the only reason the protesters didn't die to a man.

No question, the military has the capability of wiping everyone out, everywhere on earth within a few hours. The military in Ukraine easily had the capability to destroy the protest with extreme prejudice. It didn't though and this is the point. Just because the worst governments have the capability to brutally repress and destroy nearly any imaginable protest doesn't mean they will use it. Why didn't they use it? Did they beleive that they could just use a bit of brutality to round up ringleaders and return the rest of the sheep to work? Did they realize that the military wasn't behind them and large scale brutality would open them up to a more serious attrition or coup?

I don't like to bluster. I'm a weakling - I wouldn't last longer than 10 minutes in a worst case scenario. The best and probably only thing that I can do is to encourage people to arm themselves as their Federally recognized rights still allow, according to the law and not beyond it. I always to encourage people to obey the laws even when you disagree. Arm yourselves for the day when the law will make it impossible for you to obey it.

To be fair; many Conservatives/Tea Party types who talk about this stuff are plain nuts. They are pretty much just fascists who want to fight the current admin and enact even worse laws based on their nonsense understanding of the world.

[ICantSpellDawg]

I support occupy Wall Street. As the internet expands to really cut the cord of TV propaganda it will be easier to disassociate yourself from filtered and tailored messages that seek to sustain the status quo.
Most traditional papers cant get you to read them for free. Most TV news networks are watched by the graying buffalo who will only grace our lives for the next few years. The future is open information from all over the world with no censorship, but we have to fight for it. This is dangerous to any regime that seeks to control the message and uncompromising opposition is expected.

[ICantSpellDawg]

I disagree. A TV company owns most of the internet distribution in the country, net nuetrality fell, and there has been real talk in Europe and elsewhere about building a new internet that isn't dependent on the US.

Besides, advertising on the internet is cheaper, easier, and so much more targeted and effective. Its every bit the social conditioning agent that TV was and then some, for corporations now and for the government later when its ubiquitousness makes it a utility rather than a luxury.

Your belief is a possibility, that's why it must be opposed now.
The actions of the US government have hurt the international internet, and the suggestion of fire-walling Europe is ominous and not in the interest of Europeans or anyone else, even as they are a populist call meant to hurt the US governments ability to access info.

Still, I don't believe that they will as easily harmonize the message when people are watching different things, reading different things, believing different things. The days when every family sits around the house, at the same time, getting the same message, are going away.

The internet gives government a powerful tool to track and target individuals, but gives individuals a better opportunity to track and oppose government; holding it accountable. We will see which way it goes, but rest assured that with complacency it will not go well. Ukrainians are writing the book on intense and uncompromising government reform.

[ICantSpellDawg]

My local SuperPAC thinks that my name is Brian. My name is not Brian.

It is tough to advertise to me (at least I think it is). The only ads that I respond to are youtube videos. I'm much more amendable to showing them my interests and being advertised deals on things that I already like. Brands are a scarlet letter to me. If I see one budding name product next to an established brand that both cost $10, I automatically assume that the branded product is of inferior quality as they must spend 30% on the cost on marketing.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I am concerned with the thugs who have taken the interim premiership. They do look like mob connected black-shirts and pro-western factions should be concerned and mobilize to keep on for the shortest period of time possible.

The current interim President is the former Deputy Prime Minister - he IS the pro-Western faction.

Elections are slated for May 25th and the 2004 Constitution (which limits presidential power) has been restored.

This is basically a rerun of the Orange Revolution - which Russia has spent 10 years trying to undermine.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26312008

"Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov

Born in Dnipropetrovsk, eastern Ukraine, March 1964
Trained as metallurgist and economist
1980s - Local communist Komsomol youth leader
1993 - Economic adviser to ex-President Leonid Kuchma
1998-2007 - Elected to parliament
1999 - Deputy leader of Yulia Tymoshenko's Fatherland party
2004 - Campaigner in Orange Revolution
2005 - Head of Ukraine Security Service (SBU)
2007-2010 - Deputy PM
February 2014 - Parliament speaker, then acting president"

[ICantSpellDawg]

I can read wikipedia too and am aware of that. Still, big goons taking over the podium in all black is a bit disconcerting (becoming of Svoboda), especially given the allegations of his relationship with the Russian mob.

Additionally in order to recognize factional nuance, there is more than one "Western-Centric" faction. Vitaliy Klitschko is the leader of the UDAR, which is not the same as the Tymoshenko faction which has capitalized on the success of Klitschko and is attempting to demonstrate dominance by seizing power for the parties deputy.

This, to me, is similar to the Tea Party overthrowing government and having the supportive GOP strong-arm itself into leading the new government. I could be wrong about that.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I can read wikipedia too and am aware of that. Still, big goons taking over the podium in all black is a bit disconcerting (becoming of Svoboda), especially given the allegations of his relationship with the Russian mob.

Additionally in order to recognize factional nuance, there is more than one "Western-Centric" faction. Vitaliy Klitschko is the leader of the UDAR, which is not the same as the Tymoshenko faction which has capitalized on the success of Klitschko and is attempting to demonstrate dominance by seizing power for the parties deputy.

This, to me, is similar to the Tea Party overthrowing government and having the supportive GOP strong-arm itself into leading the new government. I could be wrong about that.

Guy wears a black shirt, has short hair...?

I'd be more worried about him being a former Spook, but the key point is he's interim President, he's unlikely to win the election but he IS a good choice to manage things during the crisis.

[Fragony]

I'd be worried about just about everyone. Maffia-state. EU wants to give Ukraine 20 billion, Russia calls back ambassador. Rumours of Russian troops positioning.

Floating on the web [url]https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/t1/1891281_745452628798192_303332851_n.

Maffia replaces maffia.

[Myth]

Wow, this thread blew up in a few days! I heard that the army refused to shoot civilians, hence only police and BERKUT forces were applied. I'm not buying this, because if there's one thing the army is good at, is drilling it into your skull to follow orders. Military tribunals and such are no laughing matter, so I don't see a general sticking his neck out in denying this. I'd love to get more reliable info, but I can't, expect from some friends I have in Ukraine. Maybe I should ask them since I haven't in a while.

Regarding rebellions - we live in the information age. It is no longer necessary for civilians to outfight a professional army (and it is impossible if said army is at least moderately competent and equipped). It is only necessary for cameras to capture the blood flowing in the streets to get the UN to act. There's more than enough bored and rich countries who have nothing better to do than meddle in such affairs.

That Putin wants to march his troops down to Kiev is probably true, but I think he is shrewd enough not do something so blunt. Marching tanks over foreign capitals is so 20th century (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prague_Spring#Invasion).

[Seamus Fermanagh]

guns and revolution?

America's current gun ownership is not capable of stopping a dictatorial overthrow by a dictator with the backing of the military (not that such is likely with our culture, it is not). Our right to "keep and bear arms" has been "infringed" enough to make that almost impossible to defend against. AR-15 v Apache gunship is tough odds for the rifleman. Either our second amendment rights are a function of our militia powers as a community -- in which case the community and not the individuals should be controlling the weapons -- or it is an individual right. Either way, I don't see anything in the second amdt that says or implies 'except for large clips weapons, fully automatic weapons, or crew served weapons which the government can restrict."

The real protection against the dictatorial overthrow is that the military would not support it en masse and many would side with the citizens -- thus evening the playing field a bit.

Ukraine is an interesting test cast for Europe and Western Asia -- just what will be the power and reach of Ursus Russicus?

[drone]

The real protection against the dictatorial overthrow is that the military would not support it en masse and many would side with the citizens -- thus evening the playing field a bit.

Plus the whole Posse Comitatus thing, which would make the whole operation illegal with federal troops (giving the generals an out if so ordered).

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Wow, this thread blew up in a few days! I heard that the army refused to shoot civilians, hence only police and BERKUT forces were applied. I'm not buying this, because if there's one thing the army is good at, is drilling it into your skull to follow orders. Military tribunals and such are no laughing matter, so I don't see a general sticking his neck out in denying this. I'd love to get more reliable info, but I can't, expect from some friends I have in Ukraine. Maybe I should ask them since I haven't in a while.

Regarding rebellions - we live in the information age. It is no longer necessary for civilians to outfight a professional army (and it is impossible if said army is at least moderately competent and equipped). It is only necessary for cameras to capture the blood flowing in the streets to get the UN to act. There's more than enough bored and rich countries who have nothing better to do than meddle in such affairs.

That Putin wants to march his troops down to Kiev is probably true, but I think he is shrewd enough not do something so blunt. Marching tanks over foreign capitals is so 20th century (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prague_Spring#Invasion).

I think is is a generally sensible view - the key point being that Ukraine, while far from perfect, is a modern country with a functioning democracy, it's hard to invade such a place without people noticing or caring. Ukraine also borders NATO, which makes any Russian military move suspect.

[HoreTore]

I think is is a generally sensible view - the key point being that Ukraine, while far from perfect, is a modern country with a functioning democracy, it's hard to invade such a place without people noticing or caring. Ukraine also borders NATO, which makes any Russian military move suspect.

*cough* Georgia *cough*

[Seamus Fermanagh]

*cough* Georgia *cough*

What is your point. It is not as though Georgia had a NATO border....er.....uh......

[lars573]

*cough* Georgia *cough*
*cough*Economically unimportant to Europe at large, unlike Ukraine*cough*

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

*cough* Georgia *cough*

*Cough* Georgia shelled Russian Peacekeepers *cough*

Georgia also shares a border with Turkey, which is A: much harder to invade than modern Romania or Bulgaria and B: Not in the EU.

Ukraine also borders Poland, Slovakia and Hungary.

It is strategically important.

[Sarmatian]

*Cough* Georgia shelled Russian Peacekeepers *cough*


A fact often overlooked.

I don't see Russia intervening militarily. They didn't do it during the Orange revolution, I don't see why would they do it now. The only scenario in which Russian intervention is plausible is if the new regime in Kiev don't broker some kind of deal with eastern part of Ukraine and sends the army instead. That's highly unlikely because every politician there knows that eastern Ukraine pays the bills for the entire country. Also, the army would probably refuse to do that and even the best spin doctors wouldn't be able to spin that as a democratic course of action.

If the new regime manages to take control of the entire country peacefully, then it's really up to the west. Ukrainian economy is on the brink of collapse. West needs to send a rather big package. There are talks of 20 billions, but I doubt it. They will send few billions at best, most of which will go to corrupt politicians, and so, after a few years, disillusioned Ukrainians will vote in Party of Regions again.

The only other scenario, irrespective of this revolution, where I can see Russia considering military intervention is if Ukraine joins NATO, but that is also highly improbable.

[Myth]

Considering that the path for us was NATO first, EU later, I think this is a possible scenario. What CAN Russia do after the fact? They either have to come out guns blazing or learn to take a loss. Russia bordering NATO would either make them convert and give in or it will start WW3 and everybody loses.

[rvg]

Russia bordering NATO would either make them convert and give in or it will start WW3 and everybody loses.

Russia already is bordering NATO. What's the big deal?

[Fragony]

Russia already is bordering NATO. What's the big deal?

They are certainly considering the possibility. It isn't that a rare occasion that Russian bombers are intercepted by Danish and Dutch jets. Same with submarines. They are probably just testing reaction-time but that they consider a certain scenario just to be sure seems pretty obvious.

[Sarmatian]

They are certainly considering the possibility. It isn't that a rare occasion that Russian bombers are intercepted by Danish and Dutch jets.

It is a very rare occasion, because the bombers don't enter foreign airspace, whether they are Russian, American or someone else's, unless by a mistake. They just fly really close. When they get close to a sovereign airspace, that nations scramble fighters. It's routine.

[rvg]

It is a very rare occasion, because the bombers don't enter foreign airspace, whether they are Russian, American or someone else's, unless by a mistake. They just fly really close. When they get close to a sovereign airspace, that nations scramble fighters. It's routine.

Yeah, they have that entire etiquette down to a science. They know exactly what constitutes an act of war and stay clear of that if they know what's good for them. Otherwise as soon as they land it's a quick road to arrest > court martial > prison for being a f*ing idiot.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Russia already is bordering NATO. What's the big deal?

True of course, but at such an inhospitable and militarily unworkable latitude that it has never been viewed as a real "threat zone."
"

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

If the new regime manages to take control of the entire country peacefully, then it's really up to the west. Ukrainian economy is on the brink of collapse. West needs to send a rather big package. There are talks of 20 billions, but I doubt it. They will send few billions at best, most of which will go to corrupt politicians, and so, after a few years, disillusioned Ukrainians will vote in Party of Regions again.

the EU needs to send 2bn to cover the money Russia might not send. That should tide the country over until after elections, at which point the EU will sign the association agreement and AID will start to seriously flow.

As Myth will doubtless tell you, you can live with corrupt politicians taking backhanders, the problem starts when those politicians start changing the Constitution and rigging elections.

Like I said, this is the rerun of the Orange Revolution, what we're seeing here is less a new "Revolution" and more the working out of a political crisis that has been coming to a head for five years or so.

[HopAlongBunny]

There seems to be a danger of devolution into an east/west conflict. If it becomes a shooting conflict, Vlad would be happy to aid in restoring order and (just as a charitable side beni) protecting present/former Russian nationals.
Eggshells? Not quite yet, but this is one Russia wants to win

[Kagemusha]

To me the situation seems more positive then during weekend. While it is somewhat strange where Janukovits has disappeared. I cant see any real indications for escalating violence as of now. While the situation can change rapidly. I truly and sincerely hope that the Ukrainians can settle this issue by political means, while no doubt some dirtbag is going to take the reigns. I really do hope both West and East Ukrainians can reach an consensus which one it should be.

[Sarmatian]

the EU needs to send 2bn to cover the money Russia might not send. That should tide the country over until after elections, at which point the EU will sign the association agreement and AID will start to seriously flow.

As Myth will doubtless tell you, you can live with corrupt politicians taking backhanders, the problem starts when those politicians start changing the Constitution and rigging elections.

Like I said, this is the rerun of the Orange Revolution, what we're seeing here is less a new "Revolution" and more the working out of a political crisis that has been coming to a head for five years or so.

2 billion isn't enough to cover holes in the budget, let alone stop economy from deteriorating, especially after this. 15 billion Russian deal wasn't enough probably.

Interesting how you see this as a continuation of the Orange Revolution. During that time, pro western parties, again in Kiev, installed Yushchenko, curbed the power of the parliament and increased president's authority. The popularity of Yushchenko dropped considerably due to his inability to do anything and rampant corruption. They tried with Timoshenko then with similar results. Now they've had another revolution to increase the power of the parliament at the expense of president. Very weird, cyclical revolution. Go back to where you started, do not pass go, do not collect 15 bn dollars.

Timoshenko's now enjoying increased popularity because she's seen as the martyr and that erased off most bad memories, but as soon as the enthusiasm ends, failing economy and her own corruption will take it's toll and she's gonna lose. What's gonna happen after another politician tries to change the course, I wonder... Another Kiev-centered revolution to increase the power of the president and diminish influence of the parliament, possibly.

[Myth]

A big land border like the one between Ukraine and Russia is a different story. Imagine US airbases sprinkled 100 km. from the border. That would make the Russians paranoid. Not to mention an extension of the missile shield or whatever it was called over basically most of the relevant missile launch sites that we know of.

I hear talk that the Russian communist party is stirring memories of Chernobyl and asking for EU and Russian military intervention to "help secure the 5 NPPs on Ukrainian soil due to the collapse of executive authority". I hope Putin doesn't buy into this bull. The first guys who would be interested in NOT losing any of the 5 NPPs are Rosatom, who are the ones who helped build them and are supplying them with "fresh" fuel. Too much money to be had. But marching the tanks over to the NPPs sounds like a recipe for disaster.

[rvg]

Imagine US airbases sprinkled 100 km. from the border.

NATO has an airbase in Estonia.

[HoreTore]

NATO has an airbase in Estonia.

NATO has several bases on Russia's borders. Kinda natural since several NATO members border Russia...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

2 billion isn't enough to cover holes in the budget, let alone stop economy from deteriorating, especially after this. 15 billion Russian deal wasn't enough probably.

2bn is the aize of the next Russian payment - the EU/IMF has to cover that between now and May 25, after May more aid will be forthcoming.


Interesting how you see this as a continuation of the Orange Revolution. During that time, pro western parties, again in Kiev, installed Yushchenko, curbed the power of the parliament and increased president's authority. The popularity of Yushchenko dropped considerably due to his inability to do anything and rampant corruption. They tried with Timoshenko then with similar results. Now they've had another revolution to increase the power of the parliament at the expense of president. Very weird, cyclical revolution. Go back to where you started, do not pass go, do not collect 15 bn dollars.

The Orange Revolution saw a curb on Presidential Power which last until 2010 - when the now-ex President reverted to the 1996 Constitution.

So it's not cyclical - Russia been doctoring your news again, or something?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Ukraine

[Sarmatian]

2bn is the aize of the next Russian payment - the EU/IMF has to cover that between now and May 25, after May more aid will be forthcoming.

Ok. We will see how much will come all together.




The Orange Revolution saw a curb on Presidential Power which last until 2010 - when the now-ex President reverted to the 1996 Constitution.

So it's not cyclical - Russia been doctoring your news again, or something?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Ukraine

I didn't know that, although it says it was the constitutional court.

And, naturally, Russia's been doctoring my news all the time. Anyone not thinking west is the greatezt, automatically must be under influence of doctored news, geez ~;)

[Seamus Fermanagh]

A big land border like the one between Ukraine and Russia is a different story. Imagine US airbases sprinkled 100 km. from the border. That would make the Russians paranoid. Not to mention an extension of the missile shield or whatever it was called over basically most of the relevant missile launch sites that we know of....

Nothing and nobody in NATO can make the Russians paranoid. They arrived at that state a LOOOOOOONG time ago.

[HoreTore]

Nothing and nobody in NATO can make the Russians paranoid. They arrived at that state a LOOOOOOONG time ago.

That can surely be said of the west as well, eh?

[Fragony]

15 billion Russian deal wasn't enough probably.

Didn't know about such an offer, the EU wants to give 20. What the hell is really going on here.

[rvg]

That can surely be said of the west as well, eh?

The West is rational while Russia operates on emotions. It's a common trait of despotic governments (like DPRK, Venezuela, Zimbabwe etc). We certainly don't operate on the notion that the whole world is out to get us. Russia does.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Ok. We will see how much will come all together.

Bear in mind, a trade deal was on the table before the former president backed down.


I didn't know that, although it says it was the constitutional court.

Under a new president, who we now know was building himself palaces - and you wonder why the PARLIAMENT voted to impeach him?


And, naturally, Russia's been doctoring my news all the time. Anyone not thinking west is the greatezt, automatically must be under influence of doctored news, geez ~;)

I didn't say the West was the greatest - but the news here has been over the issue of the undoing of the 2004 Constitution (6 years after the Court handwaved it), in fact it was on the news in 2010 when it happened.

So there's something wrong at your end with what they're telling you.


The West is rational while Russia operates on emotions. It's a common trait of despotic governments (like DPRK, Venezuela, Zimbabwe etc). We certainly don't operate on the notion that the whole world is out to get us. Russia does.

That's not true, about Russia at least. Putin believes, accurately, that the Western Bloc is opposed to Russia gaining international influence.

Cold War never really ended - it just went quiet.

[Sarmatian]

Bear in mind, a trade deal was on the table before the former president backed down.

A trade deal - yes, not direct aid, iirc.

An important piece of the puzzle is corruption in Ukraine which Russia factored in probably, but I'm not sure whether EU did.

If EU sends some money, and the money isn't used properly, will it send more, after the enthusiasm in the west drops and Ukraine moves away from front pages...


Under a new president, who we now know was building himself palaces - and you wonder why the PARLIAMENT voted to impeach him?

That palace by itself is of no consequence. It just serves as another proof of the widespread corruption.


I didn't say the West was the greatest - but the news here has been over the issue of the undoing of the 2004 Constitution (6 years after the Court handwaved it), in fact it was on the news in 2010 when it happened.

So there's something wrong at your end with what they're telling you.

Yes, I sit in a room 6 hours every day with trained Russian propaganda agents telling me what I need to know.

Isn't it simpler to assume I don't know everything (it happens even to me sometimes :D) and some bits and pieces of information can escape me, rather than assuming that I'm biased or under influence of "doctored" news?


That's not true, about Russia at least. Putin believes, accurately, that the Western Bloc is opposed to Russia gaining international influence.

Cold War never really ended - it just went quiet.

Cold War ended in the sense that Russia is not a threat to the west anymore, but NATO doesn't want to let go of it because it can't justify its own existence without an external threat, so Russia will serve as a good bogeyman for a few decades more and then NATO will turn to China probably.

[Ironside]

The West is rational while Russia operates on emotions. It's a common trait of despotic governments (like DPRK, Venezuela, Zimbabwe etc). We certainly don't operate on the notion that the whole world is out to get us. Russia does.

Nah, both operates often on emotions and sometimes on logic. A lot of the major political moves done by the US has been emotionally driven the last decades. The world is out to get us is much lower, but still existant, see China for example and remember Japan in the 80-ties (before their stagnation). A potential rival in the future becomes the rival that overtakes in the future.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Cold War ended in the sense that Russia is not a threat to the west anymore,

Except for, you know, all the nukes they still have.

[Sarmatian]

Nukes are primarily a defensive weapon. That just proves they can not be invaded. They are as much of a threat to world's security as much as British, American, French, Indian, Chinese... nukes.

[PROVOST]

^

Good old M.A.D. situation kicks in with Nukes.

Bravo to the people in Kiev sticking it the crap Russian puppet President and hopefully they achieve what they hope for.

[Kagemusha]

Putin has ordered today at noon the forces of the Russian Western military district bordering Ukraine, to high alert in order for unscheduled military exercise.

According to Russian sources, the maneuvers will include: "Some 150,000 troops, 90 aircraft, over 120 helicopters, 880 tanks and 1,200 pieces of military hardware will be involved in the drills, deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said Wednesday."

This is no petty force Russia is mobilizing. My cautious optimism from yesterday is turning into real worry today..:shrug:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Sabre-rattling to be sure. On the other hand, if a definitive decision to intervene had already been made, there would be no announcements made until after forces had crossed the border.

[Kagemusha]

My bet it is both a signal and a provocation. Russia is mobilizing its armed forces to ready state of affairs if needs to be. I do not think they are planning to just invade without further excuses. Nope. My bet is that they want to see how both the Western and Eastern factions of Ukraine will react. Basically to me this smells like a move in a chess game from Russian point of view. They have already said that the up and coming government of Ukraine is unlawful, they have frozen financial aid to Ukraine and now they showing military readiness.

I really do hope that the Ukrainians can get their shit together and make some sort of consensual agreement within. If this provocation from Russia will encourage conflict within Ukraine. My bet is that it will be just the casus belli Russia is looking for some "peace keeping action to protect the Russians in Ukraine".

[Brenus]

The Russian Revenge will be to leave Ukraine to EU that suddenly found billions to help the new Government (composed at the moment of heirs of the 14 SS Galicia, corrupted and few news guys) when the same EU had no money to help Greece, Italy or Portugal. Hmmmm. remind me Cameron in UK telling money won't be a problem for the flood victims having lost their jobs and houses, when he had none for the workers loosing their jobs and their houses...

[Sarmatian]

Quite a worrying development. As SF said, I believe it's more muscle flexing than anything else, otherwise they probably wouldn't release information about movement of troops and their numbers. It's most probably sending a message to few would-be-Sakaashvilis in the new government.

Invading would alienate most of the Ukrainian population and Russia would only do it as a last resort, like if some idiot decides to send the army to Crimea or to attack Russian bases. There are some fascists wannabes within the new government in Kiev but saner voices should prevail.

[drone]

So, in real life who is Kramer, and who is Newman?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzLtF_PxbYw

[a completely inoffensive name]

Nukes are primarily a defensive weapon. That just proves they can not be invaded. They are as much of a threat to world's security as much as British, American, French, Indian, Chinese... nukes.

by that logic, they were never a threat since the 1950s.

[Gilrandir]

I discovered this thread only today (courtesy of Drone) so I think I can answer some questions you might have. Though, you may say that I can't claim impartiality in what concerns me closely, and you would be right. Still, some backstage view may be interesting for the people here.
In this post I would like to dwell on the reasons of what we have now.
1. Pervasive corruption. Almost every body of power you contact will expect a bribe from you: the road police, the customs, local municipal bodies. Very often (I would say regularly) it is encouraged and indeed demanded by those officials who are higher up the career ladder. I can provide an example from the University life as it is my cup of tea, you may say. To become the head of a University (he is called Rector) you must pay about 10 000 dollars. Then each month the Rector has to bring a certain sum of money to the ministry of education. The Rector demands the money from the professors who in turn demand money from the students - it is impossible for them to pass an exam without giving a bribe. Rectors of some Universities (mine including) refuse to do that and they are pressured to resign if they don't have any influential support. The same with custom officers, road police and so on.
2. Total impunity of those at power. They may do whatever they want without fearing any punishment. Again an example from my personal experience. Last May a guy who works at the local administration and moonlights at my department (his total salary something about 500 bucks) was driving drunk a jeep costing about 50 000 dollars and ran over to death a woman of thirty on a pedestrian crossing. No punishment whatever! Unless you can call a punishment a holiday at Dubai this winter.
3. Glaring discrepancy between the living standards of the majority of the people and the estates the top officials build for themselves - those are more like some sheikh's palace than a house. You may search for information (videos preferably) about Yanukovych's residence at Mezhihirya.
These three I see as causes of the events we are living through. If anyone is interested I can express my vision of the events that followed as well as clarify some issues such as language and worldview differences in Ukraine.

[Fisherking]

Just tell us what you can!

Thanks!

[Kagemusha]

@Gilrandir (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/member.php?u=59831), can you tell us about how divided your country currently really is in your opinion?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

My concerns center around secession. As in, Crimea and everything East of the Dnieper secede from the new Government and, being largely Russian speakers the Russians move in to "prevent ethnic cleansing" or some such. If this happens I do not believe NATO would intervene, or stop buying fuel from Russia.

The EU then gets to prop up (see posts above) the poorest part of the Ukraine while the most profitable zones become a Russian satrapy or get re-annexed outright.

While I am sure there is some sentiment along these lines in the region noted, I do not know how prevalent it is and, therefore, just how likely this unhappy scenario might be.

[Sarmatian]

I discovered this thread only today (courtesy of Drone) so I think I can answer some questions you might have. Though, you may say that I can't claim impartiality in what concerns me closely, and you would be right. Still, some backstage view may be interesting for the people here.
In this post I would like to dwell on the reasons of what we have now.

1. Pervasive corruption.
2. Total impunity of those at power.
3. Glaring discrepancy between the living standards of the majority of the people and the estates the top officials build for themselves

In other words, a normal Wednesday in eastern Europe. If you could give us your opinion on something more concrete like what Seamus asked.


My concerns center around secession. As in, Crimea and everything East of the Dnieper secede from the new Government and, being largely Russian speakers the Russians move in to "prevent ethnic cleansing" or some such. If this happens I do not believe NATO would intervene, or stop buying fuel from Russia.

The EU then gets to prop up (see posts above) the poorest part of the Ukraine while the most profitable zones become a Russian satrapy or get re-annexed outright.

While I am sure there is some sentiment along these lines in the region noted, I do not know how prevalent it is and, therefore, just how likely this unhappy scenario might be.

[rvg]

My concerns center around secession. As in, Crimea and everything East of the Dnieper secede from the new Government and, being largely Russian speakers the Russians move in to "prevent ethnic cleansing" or some such.
Nah. Russians and Ukrainians are so mixed that an ethnic cleansing is highly improbable. Russians with Ukrainian last names, Ukrainians with Russian last names, etc. It's a melting pot if there ever was one.


If this happens I do not believe NATO would intervene, or stop buying fuel from Russia.
Of course not. The spice must flow.


The EU then gets to prop up (see posts above) the poorest part of the Ukraine while the most profitable zones become a Russian satrapy or get re-annexed outright.
Highly unlikely.


While I am sure there is some sentiment along these lines in the region noted, I do not know how prevalent it is and, therefore, just how likely this unhappy scenario might be.
Just a bunch of loudmouths who will eventually get tired, provided that nobody tries to shut them up.

[Gilrandir]

When do you play TW games, I wonder? Too much talking on unrelated subjects! :laugh4:
Well, I wouldn't speak of division or secession. Surprisingly enough (even for me) people from different regions expressed their desire to stay within a single country. Despite linguistic, historic and future development views differences people consider themselves Ukrainians and wish to keep an integral state. I see two reasons for it.
1. I think I can speak of a definite Ukrainian identity which has been formed. Unlike the times of Orange revolution in 2004 when strong voices for separation of the South-east were heard today people feel Ukrainians whatever the differences might be. It may be explained both by gradual divorce from the common Soviet past (a whole generation has grown that has never called themselves "Soviet people") and free access to TV channels which show different points of view (which was absent in 2004 when television demonized the opposition). Supporting national teams in sports is also a powerful boost to create national identity.
2. General aversion to the Yanukovych regime (see my post above).
Now the Crimea is a different story. It became a part of Ukraine only in 1954 and it is not just Russian-speaking - it is ethnically diverse with with approximately equal proportions of Russians and Ukrainians the latter being practically devoid of any (separate from Russian) national identity and affiliation with Ukraine. Plus there are about 15% of Crimean Tatars. Those had been evicted from the Crimea and moved to Central Asia en masse by Stalin on accusation of collaboration with Nazis and started to return to their land in late 1980s. So many Crimeans do not associate themselves with Ukraine and consider secession of the peninsular from Russia to Ukraine back in 1954 a mistake which should be corrected. Now the Tatars are the strongest opponents of joining the Crimea to Russia. And there is Sevastopol where Russian navy is quartered and this city is the most Russia-minded.
But as the latest developments show (again surprisingly enough) many people in the Crimea consider it a part of Ukraine (they do not call themselves Ukrainians but rather say that they live in Ukraine) which gives me hope of retaining the Crimea within the nation.
But it all depends on what the new authorities will do. If they manage to show some economic progress and let alone the language issue then all separatist talks will peter out quickly.
I'm afraid I can't stay here posting continuously (I have my hands pretty full) but I will step by as often as I can to offer my vision of events. So stay tuned. :yes:

[HopAlongBunny]

While I hope for the best in Ukraine, I have very specific worries.
The Ukraine is of course free to choose whatever path they wish... much like Mexico, Cuba, Nicaragua,... etc. are free to choose their path.
The Ukraine has to get its act together first, then push forward on the path they chose; none of that is going to be easy.

[Gilrandir]

To understand better what is going on one must know the prehistory.
The roots of the conflict go back to 2004 presidential election. Yanukovych won it but mainly through obnoxious machinations. It is true that many people in the southeast supported him (goaded and scared by the propaganda that predicted fascists from Western Ukraine coming and murdering all those who spoke Russian). But there were numerous cases of the so called merry-go-rounds (the people with absentee ballots touring the country and voting at several polling stations), dropping into the ballot boxes whole bunches (rather packs) of ballots by one person, vote calculation frauds and computer program responsible for collecting voting results from all over the nation being tapped. It caused the outburst of popular sentiment in favor of Yushchenko and resulted in what is now known as Orange revolution.
But the new president turned out a weakling and his presidency was largely spent in recrimination and struggle with Tymoshenko. Such development caused disgust and disappointment among their supporters and in 2010 Yanukovych won mainly through dissent and indifference of his opponents' adherents.
Now Yanukovych was always considered a pro-Russian politician and it reflected the sentiment of his electorate. Astonishingly for the majority of Ukrainians (both from the West and the South-east) he proclaimed a course towards EU. Neither part of Ukraine took it seriously but he was persistent in his propaganda advertising future bliss to come. I would say that people all over Ukraine in their everyday struggle to survive did not think of joining EU at all, considering it too good and unreal to be true. But four years of propaganda worked pretty well so people looked forward with great expectations to the much advertised association agreement. But Yanukovych backed out at the last possible moment. People felt as if they came to the party after persistent invitations (though they had had no great desire to come), but instead of the promised feast they were told to go back home hungry. That was what triggered the initial outburst in November 2013. How the situation has come to the pass we are having now is another chapter of the story to be covered later.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

To understand better what is going on one must know the prehistory.
The roots of the conflict go back to 2004 presidential election. Yanukovych won it but mainly through obnoxious machinations. It is true that many people in the southeast supported him (goaded and scared by the propaganda that predicted fascists from Western Ukraine coming and murdering all those who spoke Russian). But there were numerous cases of the so called merry-go-rounds (the people with absentee ballots touring the country and voting at several polling stations), dropping into the ballot boxes whole bunches (rather packs) of ballots by one person, vote calculation frauds and computer program responsible for collecting voting results from all over the nation being tapped. It caused the outburst of popular sentiment in favor of Yushchenko and resulted in what is now known as Orange revolution.
But the new president turned out a weakling and his presidency was largely spent in recrimination and struggle with Tymoshenko. Such development caused disgust and disappointment among their supporters and in 2010 Yanukovych won mainly through dissent and indifference of his opponents' adherents.
Now Yanukovych was always considered a pro-Russian politician and it reflected the sentiment of his electorate. Astonishingly for the majority of Ukrainians (both from the West and the South-east) he proclaimed a course towards EU. Neither part of Ukraine took it seriously but he was persistent in his propaganda advertising future bliss to come. I would say that people all over Ukraine in their everyday struggle to survive did not think of joining EU at all, considering it too good and unreal to be true. But four years of propaganda worked pretty well so people looked forward with great expectations to the much advertised association agreement. But Yanukovych backed out at the last possible moment. People felt as if they came to the party after persistent invitations (though they had had no great desire to come), but instead of the promised feast they were told to go back home hungry. That was what triggered the initial outburst in November 2013. How the situation has come to the pass we are having now is another chapter of the story to be covered later.

And now Russian-speaking paramilitary types have siezed public buildings in the Crimea.

The question we must ask now is - who are these Men.

You know, I remember Yushchenko's election, and the disappointment in him in the West after. It's depressing that there was only one apparent alternative for Ukrainians.

[Gilrandir]

Now I would like to offer a view on the chain of events and the mistakes the authorities made hoping to deal with the crisis.
So, before the summit in Vilnius some protesters gathered on Maidan to make sure, as they claimed, that Yanukovych signs the AA. It ended in a failure so the protesters stayed on in vain hoping for they knew not what. Their number was about 200, most of them students. The best solution for Yanukovych would have been to let them be purposeless and disappointed until they dwindled like a Crusade in a low-zeal province. But here comes MISTAKE #1.
At night of the 1st of December the police atrociously drove them away beating savagely even those who escaped to the nearest vicinity and using batons and boots against those who fell and could not get up. It caused a huge upheaval and people started to flood Maidan. Where it had been a couple of hundreds now stood thousands of resolute protesters who now had a reason to protest. EU AA was forgotten. They demanded punishment for those who directed and enforced the senseless atrocities. Yanukovych pretended to get it investigated and suspended a couple of officials who (as was popularly believed) couldn't have acted on their own accord. Symptomatically, the minister of internal affairs Zakharchenko and the Head of the President's administration Klyuyev, notorious hard-liners suspected of being at the bottom of it all, got off unscathed. No one even thought of demading a resignation from Yanukovych.
Maidan dragged on well into January and its leaders urged the parliamenary opposition first to some decisive actions then just to any actions but they were unable to offer any clear-cut plan. It seemed that Maidan would soon dissolve.
But here we go again, MISTAKE #2.
The Parliament adopts a law ostensibly to bring Ukrainian legislature in accordance with the European one. In particular, it forbade covering faces and wearing helmets in the street, cars moving in groups of six and more, disclosure of any information about judges' residence and families, internet control and many other things. As its authors claimed, such norms exist in most European countries. It may well be true, but in those conditions the law was understood as an encroachment on democracy.
Again the protesters received a cause to fight for (or, this time, to fight against). People started to mock the authorities coming to police departments to make confessions that when they were kids they wore animal masks at Christmas parties and asked for permission to form a group of six cars as they wanted to go fishing.
The situation exacerbated and streetfights broke. Now it has become practically impossible to discover who started the violence with both sides blaming the opponents. I think you followed the events so I won't repeat them. I wanted to show the causes and consequences.
The mistakes I attribute to the ill advice of Russian advisers who worked for Yanukovych. The advice was misplaced as Russians gave it basing their judgement on percepting Ukrainians as if they were Russians. It is deeply rooted in Russian mentality to fear and respect the monarch (the more you fear him, the greater is the respect). If Russians start protesting and the protests are supressed they tend to hide in a deep hole thinking: "Well, after all he is the Tsar. We should obey." Ukrainian mentality turned out to be different - a hundred started a protest, got supressed, so thousands must step in.
So much for Maidan in Kyiv. But what was going on in the provinces is to be reported later.

[HoreTore]

And now Russian-speaking paramilitary types have siezed public buildings in the Crimea.

The question we must ask now is - who are these Men.

You know, I remember Yushchenko's election, and the disappointment in him in the West after. It's depressing that there was only one apparent alternative for Ukrainians.

My earlier comparison to Georgia sounds a lot less ridiculous now, eh?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

My earlier comparison to Georgia sounds a lot less ridiculous now, eh?

I did not think it ridiculous at all. And Gilrandir made it pretty clear that the Crimea is the most likely flash point for any real problem. Now, is it another Ossetia? Too early to say.

[Kagemusha]

The chess move is Crimea. Gilrandir your country is not the only country in the west without NATO surviving in the pressure of Russia, while very different in lot of aspects, my sentiment goes to you and your countrymen,sincerely from Finland.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The chess move is Crimea. Gilrandir your country is not the only country in the west without NATO surviving in the pressure of Russia, while very different in lot of aspects, my sentiment goes to you and your countrymen,sincerely from Finland.

And you KNOW he means it when a Finn stays sober enough to finish the whole post without editing....

[a completely inoffensive name]

Self determination. If Crimea identifies as Russian, let it be done. Obviously there are minority groups which would not be happy under this situation, but I think that is where EU/UN intervention would be beneficial in providing reparations for such groups if they so choose to move rather than live under Russian government.

[Shaka_Khan]

Self determination. If Crimea identifies as Russian, let it be done. Obviously there are minority groups which would not be happy under this situation, but I think that is where EU/UN intervention would be beneficial in providing reparations for such groups if they so choose to move rather than live under Russian government.
The question is, would Ukraine let Russia take Crimea without a fight? History has shown that very few countries give up their land without a fight even if their opponent is a superpower. Even if the Ukrainian government backs down, tensions would remain, and I get the feeling that there still would be some or more Ukrainian civilians who'd retaliate. If the Mexicans in New Mexico demand independence, and if Mexican soldiers intrude into that state, would the US sit by and do nothing about it? Certainly not. It would be the same vis-à-vis. Mexico wouldn't sit by if the US took Mexican land even though the US is a nuclear superpower. Although having nukes make the opponent reluctant to attack, when being attacked upon, most countries will defend for their lives even when facing a nuclear power.

That being said, Ukraine probably regrets disbanding their Soviet era nukes.

[Gilrandir]

In all the speculations about Crimeans' choice you forget one "very small but very important" (as Gorbachev put it) factor: brainwashing aka propaganda. Most people in the Crimea watch Russian TV and trust it rather than Ukrainian channels. Putin-controlled TV did its best to present protesters as rioters, marauders, extremists, fascists and radicals. They leave it unsaid that protesters enjoy a prodigious support in Kyiv (a predominantly Russian-speaking city, btw). People brought to Maidan food (so much that protesters had to turn them down), medicines (Maidan donated the surplus to some hospitals and orphanages), clothes (the surplus donated to retirement houses). Have you ever seen a red Ferrari with its top down and its back seat filled with tyres? I have. Old ladies offered to wash the floor in the buildings used as hospitals, the wounded were taken home to be treated there after surgeries, churches opened their gates and let their territory be turned into a field hospital where people brought expensive medical equipment bought for their own money and gave it free to be used by Maidaners. At hospitals people lined to donate blood. (You know, I'm proud of my nation). Do you think anything of it was shown by Russian TV? If we adopt their view then all the 3 million inhabitants of Kyiv (as well as those Bandera-followers from Western Ukraine) are rioters, marauders ... (see above).
So Putin TV succeeded in making protesters orcs and demons in the eyes of Crimeans. The next move is logical - now these demons are coming to the Crimea to kill all Russian-speakers, cut out their tongues, brand swastikas on their foreheads and forbid people to speak any language but Ukrainian. They may invite NATO (which in the Crimea is also a bugaboo as evil (or even more evil) as West-Ukrainian fascists). Only Russia can prevent it. "The Riders of Rohan stirred at first, murmuring with approval of the words of Saruman; and then they too were silent, as men spell-bound. And over their hearts crept a shadow, the fear of a great danger:the end of the Mark (i.e.the Crimea) in a darkness to which Gandalf (i.e. Ukraine) was driving them, while Saruman (i.e. Russia) stood beside a door of escape, holding it half open so that a ray of light came through."
Am I getting too poetic?
You know, last summer I was in Sevastopol when they celebrated The (Russian) Navy's Day and a crowd of people gathered on the embankment to see manouvers. A Belgian ship was spotted in the harbor and at once I heard murmurings in the crowd: "It's a nato ship, it has no business here, let it leave the harbor".
So any help from Europe or attempts of Ukrainian armed forces (which are directed by the illegal gang in Kyiv, as many believe it to be) to interfere will cause a reaction like "Better to have our Russian brethren. They will keep order."
The only help that can come from without should be pressure on Russia by some diplomatic (or financial) means if that is possible for meek European politicians (I'm sorry if I offended anyone).

[Sarmatian]

Am I getting too poetic?


Nah, just too nationalistic to be taken seriously anymore.

Armed men without insignias took control of two airports in Crimea and Yanukovich emerges in Russia. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/28/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140228

Officials in Kiev maintain they are directed from Moscow. Russia says it will defend interests of its citizens, but will not intervene by force. Maidan government now needs to approach this calmly and rationally to come out of this with unchanged borders. Hopefully, they won't allow far right, pro fascist groups involved in protest anywhere near Crimea situation.

[Montmorency]

1. "Rational, calm" government takes everyone's interests into account. Return to Yannie-era system.
2. Nationalist government asserts Ukrainian identity under the aegis of Europe. Relations with Russia destroyed, economy crippled.

I think Russia may have the upper hand here.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Nah, just too nationalistic to be taken seriously anymore.

Armed men without insignias took control of two airports in Crimea and Yanukovich emerges in Russia. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/28/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140228

Officials in Kiev maintain they are directed from Moscow. Russia says it will defend interests of its citizens, but will not intervene by force. Maidan government now needs to approach this calmly and rationally to come out of this with unchanged borders. Hopefully, they won't allow far right, pro fascist groups involved in protest anywhere near Crimea situation.

You do realize that nationalism is alive and well, even in Serbia I suppose. Just because you believe his perspective distorted does NOT make his perspective less relevant to this discussion. It is exactly these sentiments that are central to the dispute.

[Gilrandir]

Nah, just too nationalistic to be taken seriously anymore.


This is the first time anyone called me a nationalist. I have russian blood in me. But as they say here in Ukraine "If you speak to Russians long enough you will eventually end up a Ukrainian nationalist". I have relatives in Russia and many acquaintances there. Believe me or not, any conversation that has run its course as a meeting-of-old-buddies(relatives) talk comes to the question: "Well, how soon do you think we are going to become one country again?" Do Serbs ask the same questions to Bosnians or Croatians?
But again, I don't claim to be impartial in my views. You may (and must) take all I say cum grano salis.

[Sarmatian]

You do realize that nationalism is alive and well, even in Serbia I suppose. Just because you believe his perspective distorted does NOT make his perspective less relevant to this discussion. It is exactly these sentiments that are central to the dispute.

... and if a Crimean Russian makes a post likening government in Kiev to orcs, uruk-hais and Saruman and presenting Crimean stalwart defenders as elves and humans led by such luminaries like Gandalf and Aragorn, in which way does that improve this discussion?


This is the first time anyone called me a nationalist. I have russian blood in me. But as they say here in Ukraine "If you speak to Russians long enough you will eventually end up a Ukrainian nationalist". I have relatives in Russia and many acquaintances there. Believe me or not, any conversation that has run its course as a meeting-of-old-buddies(relatives) talk comes to the question: "Well, how soon do you think we are going to become one country again?" Do Serbs ask the same questions to Bosnians or Croatians?
But again, I don't claim to be impartial in my views. You may (and must) take all I say cum grano salis.

You're very well entitled to your own views and opinions, but I don't have to agree with them or take them seriously.
In general, I won't take seriously anything that tries to equate a complex political situation with a fantasy novel about struggle of good and evil.

[Beskar]

I have relatives in Russia and many acquaintances there. Believe me or not, any conversation that has run its course as a meeting-of-old-buddies(relatives) talk comes to the question: "Well, how soon do you think we are going to become one country again?" Do Serbs ask the same questions to Bosnians or Croatians?

When the Serbs are asking, they are rolling tanks up and down the border, which then scuttle away quickly when a Nato jet flies by.

[Sarmatian]

When the Serbs are asking, they are rolling tanks up and down the border, which then scuttle away quickly when a Nato jet flies by.

This is demonizing an entire nation. As per Backroom FAQ and it's illustrative example which I quote

Acceptable: "I can't stand the Lilliputian government's excessive use of hemp rope against innocents"
Unacceptable: " Lilliputians are small-minded pygmies" , I demand swift and appropriate punishment.

Now report yourself to yourself.

What I consider appropriate punishment in this case is that you have to vote for UKIP in the next elections.

[HoreTore]

What I consider appropriate punishment in this case is that you have to vote for UKIP in the next elections.

Oh the humanity!

Be reasonable in your punishments, Sarmatian. His offence does not require such a horrendous response; scale it down to a mere capital punishment instead.

[Beskar]

What I consider appropriate punishment in this case is that you have to vote for UKIP in the next elections.
In short, approve this.
https://i.imgur.com/bevHwfW.jpg

[Gilrandir]

... and if a Crimean Russian makes a post likening government in Kiev to orcs, uruk-hais and Saruman and presenting Crimean stalwart defenders as elves and humans led by such luminaries like Gandalf and Aragorn, in which way does that improve this discussion?

I did not liken anyone to anyone. I tried to explain the effect Russian TV tries to create in the unwary minds of its watchers. Having access to both Ukrainian and Russian TV I can hear both sides of the story while Russian public can not.


In general, I won't take seriously anything that tries to equate a complex political situation with a fantasy novel about struggle of good and evil.
I didn't equate the situation in Ukraine to the novel. I exemplified the way many (but by no means all) Crimeans perceive the current situation and the influence Russian TV has over there.