Coronavirus / COVID-19 [Archive] - Page 2

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-17-2020, 01:03

So, as I'm currently adjusting to our new reality I want to make a point because pontificating helps me to calm down. A lot of people are afraid, I understand that, and a lot of people think the government should "do more" but I think a lot of people don't realise quite what's happening yet.

The UK has moved, in a couple of weeks, from a peacetime society to a wartime one. Elections have been cancelled, parliamentary debate has effectively ended, industry is being co-opted to government policy and we are all being asked to "do our bit". Quite a few people want Boris Johnson to go further and forcibly close businesses and and schools. That comes next, alongside people being arrested for being out after curfew.

When Paul Witby says we are in this "for the long haul" he's been clear what that means, but I don't think people are listening. We're not talking a few weeks, we're not even talking a few months - this could well go on for a year or more. The only way the country will be kept going will be further "wartime" measures which means the Government essentially printing money, introducing price controls to prevent profiteering and ultimately rationing to control supply - something which may become law soon if panic buying continues. These restrictions will probably outstrip those enacted during World War II if the public demands to "do something" continue.

The worst part of this will come after the restrictions are lifted, because what's left of our ravaged economy will collapse and unlike 1945 there will be no American loans to prop us up.

The epidemic is likely to peak during the Summer and then trails off before starting to pick up again in the winter because Coronavirus is basically the same thing the Common Cold - which we have no treatment for. When cases start to fall off we are going to need to decide what we want our "new normal" to be - whether we want a "war on disease" or we accept shortened lifespans in exchange for some semblance of a normal civil society. Consider this especially if you have young children, because this disease is not a threat to them whilst closed schools and loss of civil liberties and social interaction are.

Montmorency

03-17-2020, 01:15

About this disease and young people:

https://twitter.com/markwby/status/1238867143363567616

Here’s something that’s absolutely terrifying: a comparison of the age distributions of Covid-19 cases in Italy, where they are only testing people who show symptoms, and S. Korea, which has broad testing. A whole lot of 20-29yos out there who feel just fine but are v contagious.

https://i.imgur.com/aIVOJBE.jpg

Holy CRAP that is a lot of asymptomatic young people. Young people are the submerged bulk of the iceberg, becoming the silent Boomer Terminators of certain members' worst nightmares.

Pannonian

03-17-2020, 01:42

Montmorency

03-17-2020, 01:55

NYC special election next week suspended TBD. Dem primary still on for April 28, which seems more superfluous but...

I mentioned the Jaws joke wrt Trump, but I'm hearing now that Boris Johnson of the UK is on record (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1557765/Boris-Johnson-inspired-by-Jaws-mayor.html) that:

Boris Johnson has revealed the inspiration behind his ambition to run London - Larry Vaughn, the mayor in the film Jaws who demanded the beaches stay open despite the ominous presence of a great white shark.

Just 24 hours after entering the race to become the Tory candidate in the mayoral elections next year, it emerged that Mr Johnson had praised Mayor Vaughn's "laissez faire" approach to public safety on several occasions.

The mayor's order leads to the gruesome death of a young boy. However, the MP for Henley said Mr Vaughn is a role model to which all politicians should aspire.

"The real hero of Jaws is the mayor," Mr Johnson said last year [2006] in a speech at Lloyd's of London.

"A gigantic fish is eating all your constituents and he decides to keep the beaches open. OK, in that instance he was actually wrong. But in principle, we need more politicians like the mayor - we are often the only obstacle against all the nonsense which is really a massive conspiracy against the taxpayer."

I hope for your British members' sake the UK government's response hasn't lived up to the old ideal.

On the other hand (https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1239641829668261893), Trump is the character in the story concealing a nasty bite on his forearm...

Asked what it was like to take the test, Trump says, "Not, not uh - something I want to do everyday...you know, it's a little bit of a -- it's a little bit of -- good doctors in the White House, but it's a test. It's a test. It's a medical test. Nothing pleasant about it."

BTW, an excellent thread (https://twitter.com/JasonKander/status/1239270297951404037) on the importance of prudence and caution under threat. The analogy is to the days (2002) when a serial killer sniper was haunting the DC area.

This somewhat prevalent “social distancing = weakness” take on #COVID19 reminds me of a story. For three weeks in October 2002, a sniper terrorized the greater D.C. metro, murdering civilians who were guilty of nothing other than going about their lives:

Carrying groceries to their car, sitting on a park bench, or mowing their yard. These victims were chosen at random. At the time, I was a Georgetown student and an Army ROTC Cadet. Local officials – as well as University leaders – were unified in their message to the public: “If we stop going out and spending money, the terrorists win.” It was simply uncool to admit you didn’t want to go out for lunch, walk across an open campus, or drive to work. Then, at the conclusion of a morning ROTC training session, one of my instructors offered a “safety brief.”
He was a tall, grizzled Sargent First Class with a combat patch, which was rare in those early days post-911.

“I know all these civilians keep saying to go about your daily lives so the terrorists don’t win, but that’s [flipping] stupid,” he growled. “There’s a damn sniper out there shooting people!” “I’ve been shot at by snipers, and I’m standing here because I didn’t walk around like some kind of idiot pretending there was no sniper.”

The American personality tends toward defiance, and in times of crisis or massive disruption, we exhibit an instinctual cultural response along the lines of, “I’m not going to let this event change the way I do things.” Political “leadership” too often defers to this instinct. Leaders fear being seen as “overreacting” while citizens fear being seen by their peers as fearful. In the case of a global pandemic, we should reject this reluctance and give in to the temptation toward urgency. Urgency is what we need.

As far I as remember children finished their school at he end of May and then parents were free to send them away if they liked. I mean in Kyiv. Elsewhere I'm confident that it was this way. No evacuation - it could give rise to total panic which was already starting to spread.

Expert Says Chernobyl Fire Is Out, 250,000 Children Leaving School Early (https://apnews.com/19c37e8f0ea0c127b1fa293b4998e53c) [May 9 1986]
UKRAINIANS EVACUATE 100,000 KIEV KIDS (https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1986-05-25-8602070443-story.html) [May 25 1986]
AFTER CHERNOBYL, IT'S SCHOOL BELLS (https://www.nytimes.com/1986/09/02/world/after-chernobyl-it-s-school-bells.html) [September 2 1986]

Here's the account (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=722ZUlPx1p0) of a Ukrainian close to you in age. He said younger kids had classes cancelled, and some parents sent their kids to other parts of the Union; the narrator himself was sent to Leningrad after school ended to stay with a friend's family, where he observed all passengers from the south being run through dosimeters. (You might like his channels, he moved to America permanently in the late 90s.)

Thousands of deaths, hundreds of thousands of infected, people confined to their dwellings, tourism industry at a full stop, stock exchange market dropping, oil prices plummetting, Putin prolonging his tenure till 2036, student athletes turned into students, media corporations devastated, floor in Ukrainian post offices washed with хлорка, Brithish stocks of thermometers and soap running historically low since 1914 (and just slightly above 1066) with no chance to replenish them because the UK has Brexited and Megan is in Canada, and on top of it all Trump taking a COVID test (and everybody made sure his ravings are hard-coded and not caused by some bug virus) VS preventing people to leave China? Hmmm... Seems a tough choice....

I wasn't diminishing the potential effectiveness of restrictions on movement of persons in delaying the spread of the disease, but reminding you that trying to discount or compartmentalize cases on the same landmass (Eurasia) leads to an incomplete frame of reference. Viruses exist in a different realm than humans do.

The most extreme quarantine measures, if you will, shrink political boundaries down to the space of a single household.

Vaguely-relevant Polandball cartoon (https://www.reddit.com/r/polandball/comments/fj251h/the_instantwall_ray/).

Pannonian

03-17-2020, 02:12

The most extreme quarantine measures, if you will, shrink political boundaries down to the space of a single household.

Not necessarily (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3gCbkeARbY).

Montmorency

03-17-2020, 02:33

Not necessarily (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3gCbkeARbY).

Let me correct myself to say the most extreme isolation measure would be mandatory isolation centers, but I take your point.

Interesting that the vast majority of transmission in China was intra-family.

Csargo

03-17-2020, 03:24

About this disease and young people:

https://twitter.com/markwby/status/1238867143363567616

https://i.imgur.com/aIVOJBE.jpg

Holy CRAP that is a lot of asymptomatic young people. Young people are the submerged bulk of the iceberg, becoming the silent Boomer Terminators of certain members' worst nightmares.

This is one of the worst parts, showing no symptoms, but being able to spread the virus.

Pannonian

03-17-2020, 03:35

Another night in England (https://streamable.com/gmr38), with a furtive punter buying "gear" from a local dealer. Note how the punter demands to try the merchandise, but the dealer demands payment in cash before handing over the goods.

Gilrandir

03-17-2020, 06:39

The End times are here. Not allowed to go anywhere, everything is closing down, the world is being brought to a stand-still.

I don't know how we're supposed to function well with 1 months of quarantine / isolation, possibly even 2 months or more. Horrendous.

Crime is up, as seen in this case of burglary (https://streamable.com/ieusc).

The world is weird at the moment. It is like a slow semi-apocalypse currently led by fear.

I feel physically sick, everything grinding to a halt is much scarier than getting the disease.

My motion to rename the thread into weareallgonnadie holds.

Expert Says Chernobyl Fire Is Out, 250,000 Children Leaving School Early (https://apnews.com/19c37e8f0ea0c127b1fa293b4998e53c) [May 9 1986]
UKRAINIANS EVACUATE 100,000 KIEV KIDS (https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1986-05-25-8602070443-story.html) [May 25 1986]
AFTER CHERNOBYL, IT'S SCHOOL BELLS (https://www.nytimes.com/1986/09/02/world/after-chernobyl-it-s-school-bells.html) [September 2 1986]

Here's the account (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=722ZUlPx1p0) of a Ukrainian close to you in age. He said younger kids had classes cancelled, and some parents sent their kids to other parts of the Union; the narrator himself was sent to Leningrad after school ended to stay with a friend's family, where he observed all passengers from the south being run through dosimeters. (You might like his channels, he moved to America permanently in the late 90s.)

I don't (and didn't back in 1986) live in Kyiv perhaps that is why I don't remember any evacuation. If there was any I'm sure it was done next to surreptitious because... well, it's the USSR. All bad news was kept from spreading as much as possible especially when it goes about large-scale disasters.

Greyblades

03-17-2020, 13:46

I don't know how we're supposed to function well with 1 months of quarantine / isolation, possibly even 2 months or more. Horrendous.

Whatever you do dont spend it watching the news.

ReluctantSamurai

03-17-2020, 14:15

I wonder if this sort of crap, if it's true, is going to become more frequent in the coming weeks:

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/16/21181825/health-human-services-coronavirus-website-ddos-cyber-attack

We should put Max Brooks in charge of fighting the virus:

https://www.vox.com/culture/2020/3/16/21181504/world-war-z-max-brooks-coronavirus-pandemic-interview

[Interviewer Alissa Wilkinson]

In World War Z, there’s the outbreak that causes people to become zombies, but then there’s something called the “Great Panic,” when people start to freak out and take drastic measures, like heading north because they’ve heard that the zombies can’t survive the cold. Different countries experience the Great Panic at different times. But according to the book, more people die from the panic than the actual infection.

[Max Brooks]

Unfortunately, that happens in many crises. People lose their minds and they do irrational things and they hurt each other. You don’t want that to happen. You’ve got to make sure you keep your head when things appear dark all around you. Because, No. 1, you can’t fix the problem if you’re too busy losing your mind. Then you have what’s called second- and third-order effects, where other people start to get hurt. I’m starting to see that with panic buying. So far there hasn’t been a lot of violence, which is great, and I hope it never happens. But the mass run on things like bottled water — in a pandemic, the water is going to keep running. It’s not an earthquake.

I think different cultures respond in different ways. Different cultures have different political systems, which definitely affects how they respond. I think the sharpest contrast is between the US and China. Everything that goes wrong in China with this virus is directly laid at the feet of Xi Jinping. He has all the power, so he has all the responsibility. Every death is on his hands. But, by the same token, we are responsible for our own deaths in this country. If we don’t like our leaders — well then, look in the mirror; we put them there. We voted for them. If we don’t like the way the CDC is handling this virus, well, who voted to defund the CDC? Who didn’t listen to the cries of health professionals saying, “Wait a minute, they’re defunding the CDC!”? We didn’t listen. We were like, “Oh my God. Friends is on Netflix. I have bingeing to do! I have things! There’s an app where I can put bunny ears on myself and send it out!” In a dictatorship like China, you can blame the top. In a democracy, in a republic, we have to blame [who we see in] the mirror.

And yet another indication that we here in the US, are perhaps in big trouble:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51919945

Anyone in a household who tests positive for the virus should remain at home along with everyone who lives there

Right. And anyone with a brain and the ability to read knows that this is the best way to spread the virus:wall:

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china

[Assistant Director General from the WHO, Bruce Alyward]

Think about the virus. Where is the virus, and how do you contain the virus? You know the virus is in the cases and in the close contacts. That’s where the majority of the virus is; that’s where the majority of the focus should be. China did a whole bunch of things, and other countries may have to do them, too, as they go forward. But the key is public information and having an informed population, finding those cases, rapidly isolating them. The faster you isolate them is what breaks the chains. Making sure close contacts are quarantined and monitored until you know if they’re infected. Somewhere between 5 and 15 percent of those contacts are infected. And again, it’s the close contacts, not everyone.

Which is exactly what they did. A family member who tested positive, was not sent home (where they could conceivably infect more family members), but sent to a containment center where they could be monitored and treated.

And some hopeful news, perhaps:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/research-how-bodys-immune-system-fights-coronavirus-covid-19/12059266

Montmorency

03-18-2020, 00:58

The states seem to be localizing testing capacity in the absence of federal assistance. New York expects to be testing 6000 daily by next week.

There was some kind of blunder today where the NYC mayor announced an imminent shelter-in-place order but the governor immediately belayed it as both out of the question and not within the mayor's authority.

South Korea's unique epidemic-oriented legal framework (https://www.lawfareblog.com/lessons-america-how-south-korean-authorities-used-law-fight-coronavirus), compared to America's.

On China's soft power campaign in the age of coronavirus:

Belt and Road & Beyond
@BeltandRoadDesk (https://twitter.com/BeltandRoadDesk/status/1239236499704442882)
EU failed to come to Italy’s help in fighting the COVID19 pandemic, China extends its helping hands.

A Italian girl named Aurora expresses her gratitude to China with her panting.

https://i.imgur.com/USI9pKC.jpg?1

Meanwhile (https://twitter.com/RushDoshi/status/1239645067066978311), HOLY SHIT listen to the Serbian president.

By now, you all understand, that great international solidarity, actually, does not exist. European solidarity does not exist. That was a fairy tale on paper.
[...]
Today, I dispatched a special letter, because we have huge expectations... that the only one that can help us in this hard situation is the People's Republic of China.
[...]
I addressed [Xi Jinping] not only as a dear friend, but as a... friend and brother of this country. As of today, as you know, we cannot import goods, according to a resolution of the EU.

[Complains about EU barring sale of medical devices to Serbia, while also discouraging trade with China.]

I believe in the brother and friend of mine, Xi Jinping, and I believe in Chinese help. The only country that can help us is China. For the rest of them, thanks for nothing. Trust me that I will find a way to thank them.

The Western international system has been a little ineffective on this collective action problem, huh?

Pannonian

03-18-2020, 01:19

The Western international system has been a little ineffective on this collective action problem, huh?

You mean western liberal democracy. There are any number of things the international system could do. But the politicians pander to the voters, who value their individual freedom more than any greater collective system. The politicians need to change to lead a more collective system. The people need to change, to accept more collective values.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-18-2020, 01:28

You mean western liberal democracy. There are any number of things the international system could do. But the politicians pander to the voters, who value their individual freedom more than any greater collective system. The politicians need to change to lead a more collective system. The people need to change, to accept more collective values.

Is that what we want, though?

Doing nothing in the UK was predicted to cause 500,000 deaths, mitigation 250,000, suppression tens of thousands.

I spoke to my father today, who is in his mid 60's with a bad chest, and he was unimpressed by those numbers - as are many local wrinklies. He seemed to think all this fuss was a somewhat narcissistic move to keep the old folks going longer so we don't have the bury them.

ReluctantSamurai

03-18-2020, 01:34

On China's soft power campaign in the age of coronavirus

Unfortunately for the US and EU, China is already past the worst for their country (presuming there will be no further outbreaks), and so can afford the luxury of extending help to other countries. China's leadership is certainly shrewd enough to see a vacuum emerging in global co-operation as countries shrink their social and economic views of the world back to their own borders in efforts to stem the pandemic. A golden opportunity for any country in their position to increase their gravitas.

The politicians need to change to lead a more collective system. The people need to change, to accept more collective values

The fact that supply chains are breaking down because of "globalization" may (or not) result in nations returning to more local sourcing including resurrecting domestic production:shrug:

Pannonian

03-18-2020, 01:44

Is that what we want, though?

Doing nothing in the UK was predicted to cause 500,000 deaths, mitigation 250,000, suppression tens of thousands.

I spoke to my father today, who is in his mid 60's with a bad chest, and he was unimpressed by those numbers - as are many local wrinklies. He seemed to think all this fuss was a somewhat narcissistic move to keep the old folks going longer so we don't have the bury them.

It's not what we want. It's what we need. But it's not what we want, and we elect the government, so we get what we want. That's why I don't solely blame politicians. The current lot is merely an extreme and talentless bunch who have excelled in getting votes from the people who think experts are passe.

Pannonian

03-18-2020, 01:47

The fact that supply chains are breaking down because of "globalization" may (or not) result in nations returning to more local sourcing including resurrecting domestic production:shrug:

We should making such a move anyway, to reduce fuel usage and overall waste. We actually have a government who think that agriculture and domestic food production are not needed for our economy.

Montmorency

03-18-2020, 02:53

I don't know enough to say, but I feel like there was more institution-led international cooperation in the AIDS, 2008 financial, swine flu, and Ebola crises than we have now. (I hesitate to compare to the smallpox eradication because that was operationally straightforward by comparison.)

Ideally in this episode, the US government starting in January would have proposed decisive internationally-coordinated border checks and controls, as well as a consolidated monetary relief mechanism for economic losses plus at least limited temporary distribution of resources in medical personnel and equipment where needed. A transnational industrial policy regulating and stimulating airlines and medical device/mask manufacturers in preparation for inevitable lockdowns and surges too.

Hooahguy

03-18-2020, 04:37

a completely inoffensive name

03-18-2020, 06:04

Funny video

https://youtu.be/viwOAX_TC80

ReluctantSamurai

03-18-2020, 06:10

Ideally in this episode, the US government starting in January would have proposed decisive internationally-coordinated border checks and controls, as well as a consolidated monetary relief mechanism for economic losses plus at least limited temporary distribution of resources in medical personnel and equipment where needed. A transnational industrial policy regulating and stimulating airlines and medical device/mask manufacturers in preparation for inevitable lockdowns and surges too

There are several problems with the US (as I see it).

First, we have a president more interested in seeing the stock market remain bullish, and more interested in keeping his job, rather than carrying out his duties to serve the citizens of his country. Some of the seeds for our unpreparedness started back in 2018 when he gutted the NSC's global health unit, and followed that by cutting the CDC funds used to monitor and assist in fighting global pandemics. Last October, Trump chose to discontinue the Predict program (started during the G.W. Bush Administration) which was responsible for tracking exotic pathogens.

Secondly, although I detest the man, Trump is not responsible for the cluster-f@#$ that is the US healthcare system, and he is not responsible for the "me-first" attitude when it comes to dividing executive decisions between the federal government, and the states. Hell, the last time this country worked together as a Union was WW II. However, if strong direction from Washington had been in place back in early February, we'd be in much better shape than we are. Instead, we got "it'll be like a miracle. it'll just go away".

Something that's not talked about much by anyone is the undocumented immigrants here, which number some 10-12 million. You think very many of them have health insurance? or will risk deportation by going to see a doctor? Not likely. Sorry, Monty, this administrations legacy is not going to being its' unshakable leadership, but instead it will be buried in the ground with all those people who are about to die. (and for all I know, one of them could be me...I'm 67)

Hooahguy

That report is more than a bit of fear-mongering because it focuses on the "do-nothing" scenario. 550,000 dead in the UK? 2.2 million in the US? Even the H1NI out-break of 1918 didn't kill that many in those two countries. However, their assessment of the stress on the health-care system is spot-on, IMHO, and the paper is definitely worth the read.

@ACIN----:bounce:

rory_20_uk

03-18-2020, 12:27

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-18-2020, 15:20

The Imperial College report on COVID-19 (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

It is terrifying. Even with full suppression in place, we would have to keep repeating it in cycles until a vaccine is fully approved and rolled out, which could be a full 18 months from now.

Just assume this is never going to end, restrictions will need to be lifted somewhat or civil society will break down but they won't be lifted completely. Your model here is the Great Plague and th ensuing further waves of Plague, not Spanish Flue.

Meanwhile, all the old wrinklies are excited to get the disease because it's something modern science can't save them from. My parents tell me the local pubs where they live are still doing a brisk trade.

Pannonian

03-18-2020, 16:55

Just assume this is never going to end, restrictions will need to be lifted somewhat or civil society will break down but they won't be lifted completely. Your model here is the Great Plague and th ensuing further waves of Plague, not Spanish Flue.

Meanwhile, all the old wrinklies are excited to get the disease because it's something modern science can't save them from. My parents tell me the local pubs where they live are still doing a brisk trade.

Went round to my old (in both senses) neighbours today to check up on them and offer to top up their supplies. Empty shelves in the supermarkets. Is it the same in your area?

Beskar

03-18-2020, 19:03

Empty shelves in the supermarkets. Is it the same in your area?

Yup.
I heard though locally the supermarkets are all going to close for 12 hours to completely restock, then open up with "elderly hour" when only elders can buy items for two hours to give them a chance.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-18-2020, 19:06

Went round to my old (in both senses) neighbours today to check up on them and offer to top up their supplies. Empty shelves in the supermarkets. Is it the same in your area?

Yup, right down to the fresh veg now.

I'm predicting government rationing in the coming weeks.

On the other hand, wandering around Sainsbury's I did see tinned tomatoes, so maybe they're starting to get a grip of it.

I want to say this can't last much longer but my impression is that the panic is spreading, so the first lot of idiots stock up, then the next lot of slightly less selfish idiots panic at the empty shelves, and so on and so on.

Greyblades

03-18-2020, 19:09

Eurovision contest is cancelled.

Every cloud...

Pannonian

03-18-2020, 19:28

Yup, right down to the fresh veg now.

I'm predicting government rationing in the coming weeks.

On the other hand, wandering around Sainsbury's I did see tinned tomatoes, so maybe they're starting to get a grip of it.

I want to say this can't last much longer but my impression is that the panic is spreading, so the first lot of idiots stock up, then the next lot of slightly less selfish idiots panic at the empty shelves, and so on and so on.

Remember what I said about supply chains?

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-18-2020, 21:36

Remember what I said about supply chains?

Truthfully, not specifically. This isn't a supply-side problem, though, it's a demand-side one.

Pannonian

03-18-2020, 22:39

Truthfully, not specifically. This isn't a supply-side problem, though, it's a demand-side one.

Exactly. We are seeing these problems because consumers are anticipating shortages and buying in bulk, and the intact supply chain, still operating as normal, hasn't been able to cope. The problem has been at the consumer end. What do you think will happen when that supply chain gets broken?

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-18-2020, 23:30

Exactly. We are seeing these problems because consumers are anticipating shortages and buying in bulk, and the intact supply chain, still operating as normal, hasn't been able to cope. The problem has been at the consumer end. What do you think will happen when that supply chain gets broken?

Demand is currently 10x what it normally is - do you think supply will drop to 1/10?

Montmorency

03-18-2020, 23:59

Apologies for the aside on New York testing capacity, apparently 6000 daily was the target for the beginning of this week, which I assume we've met. Now, last I heard, we should hit 7000 daily by the end of this week, I guess. Hard to sort through the timeline of this rapid news cycle.

First, we have a president more interested in seeing the stock market remain bullish, and more interested in keeping his job, rather than carrying out his duties to serve the citizens of his country. Some of the seeds for our unpreparedness started back in 2018 when he gutted the NSC's global health unit, and followed that by cutting the CDC funds used to monitor and assist in fighting global pandemics. Last October, Trump chose to discontinue the Predict program (started during the G.W. Bush Administration) which was responsible for tracking exotic pathogens.

Secondly, although I detest the man, Trump is not responsible for the cluster-f@#$ that is the US healthcare system, and he is not responsible for the "me-first" attitude when it comes to dividing executive decisions between the federal government, and the states. Hell, the last time this country worked together as a Union was WW II. However, if strong direction from Washington had been in place back in early February, we'd be in much better shape than we are. Instead, we got "it'll be like a miracle. it'll just go away".

Something that's not talked about much by anyone is the undocumented immigrants here, which number some 10-12 million. You think very many of them have health insurance? or will risk deportation by going to see a doctor? Not likely. Sorry, Monty, this administrations legacy is not going to being its' unshakable leadership, but instead it will be buried in the ground with all those people who are about to die. (and for all I know, one of them could be me...I'm 67)

Over the course of WW2 US GDP doubled, and the majority of that GDP was government spending. Wages and living standards generally improved over the course of the war, and we experienced a historically-low amount of either political or military violence in the homeland. AFAIK it was the only war in American 20th century history that gained public approval over time. It was also a time of extensive grassroots organization toward communal and political empowerment, which is what arguably enabled an activist government. Today's society is much more fragmented and passive. Particular sectarian forces have embraced and intensified these facts...

Unauthorized workers are the most vulnerable actors in some of the most vulnerable industries, so events just pushed our underclass even deeper into the margins of poverty. Any forthcoming government relief programs will probably bypass them. Hopefully they have some advantage in mutual aid norms to soften the blow, though this far into the subject maybe we should be looking out for local services organizations to support.

On the subject of harm reduction and utilitarian economic crisis management over the long haul: Hospitals across the country will overflow in about a month. This experience will viscerally change a lot of people's intuitions and calculations about what level and depth of disruption they are willing to accept. If our cultural impatience leads us to tolerate or agitate for state and federal governments overturning social distancing measures just before the caseload reaches critical mass - I'm not sure irony would be the right term for that, but I don't know what is.

Meanwhile, what the hell is the federal government (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/us/politics/coronavirus-government-army-corps.html) (not) doing?

Yet despite promises of a “whole of government” effort, key agencies — like the Army Corps of Engineers, other parts of the Defense Department, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Department of Veterans Affairs — had not been asked to play much of a role.

Even after Mr. Trump committed to supporting the states on Tuesday, the Army Corps of Engineers said it still had not received direction from the administration.

“We need the federal government to play its role,” Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York said Monday. “The federal government has tremendous capacity.”

Much of that capacity is untapped. Hospital ships are at port. The Department of Veterans Affairs, legally designated as the backup health care system in national emergencies, awaits requests for help. The veterans department has a surplus of beds in many of its 172 hospital centers and a robust number of special rooms for patients with breathing disorders.

The sprawling system of emergency doctors and nurses ready to be deployed by the Department of Health and Human Services — known as the National Disaster Medical System — is also still waiting for orders, other than to staff locations where passengers offloaded from cruise ships are being quarantined.

And the Defense Department, home to 1.3 million active-duty troops and a civilian and military infrastructure that has made planning for national emergencies almost an art form, has yet to be deployed to its fullest capabilities. Senior Pentagon officials say they are ready to assist in any way that is ordered, but they also caution that much of the military’s emergency medical care is designed for combat trauma or natural disasters, and not mass quarantine for infections.

The last time a big infectious disease epidemic emerged, President Barack Obama dispatched nearly 3,000 American troops to Liberia to build hospitals and treatment centers to help fight Ebola. The Pentagon opened a joint command operation at a hotel in Liberia’s capital, Monrovia, to coordinate the international effort to combat the disease, and the American military provided engineers to help construct additional treatment facilities and sent people to train health care workers in West Africa to deal with the crisis.

Shifting party line...
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1240246056513949700

Pannonian

03-19-2020, 00:13

Demand is currently 10x what it normally is - do you think supply will drop to 1/10?

5% from our biggest trading partner, according to the rules. Approx. 30,000 journeys per year currently, 1500 passes as a non-EU partner going by other non-member partners. What do you think the exercises and plans to turn the Dover-London route into a giant customs post were? When I quoted the experts on this issue, I was pooh-poohed as obviously things won't get that bad. We've now seen a taster of what it's going to be like, except the supply-side hasn't yet been shrunk. The supply-side is working normally, and we're already seeing empty shelves.

Let's have a referendum instructing the government to solve the Coronavirus problem. I'm sure the Will of the People will be a mandate that will solves all problems.

Montmorency

03-19-2020, 02:50

https://i.imgur.com/IVmcnKr.png

You can never pile on too much.

ReluctantSamurai

03-19-2020, 03:57

What I want to know is who the 8 dead-beats who voted against the Families First Coronavirus Response Act:thwack: Those idiots need to be drawn and quartered....

Am I the only one who begins and ends the day with the morbid ritual of reviewing the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Interactive World Map?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

On the subject of harm reduction and utilitarian economic crisis management over the long haul: Hospitals across the country will overflow in about a month.

Here in the States, we are trending about 10 days behind the Italians. At our current pace, confirmed cases are doubling every 5 days, although some of the new reports are undoubtedly due to the increasing number of tests being conducted.

ReluctantSamurai

03-19-2020, 04:17

On the lighter side of all this, is what some countries consider "essential" when ordering shut-downs:

But it turns out that what’s “essential” can vary from country to country. Amsterdam’s marijuana-supplying coffee shops remain open. Belgium’s french-fry stands are still serving up doses of greasy potatoes. Parisian wine shops — bien sûr — can still be paid a visit.

In Berlin, authorities have included bike shops on the list of essential services — a perhaps understandable measure at a time when people are being urged to avoid public transportation.

Italy remains the European country hardest-hit by the coronavirus, and there are few exceptions to its near-total shutdown. But newsstands remain open, a quaint and sweet measure that allows older residents a chance to read the papers. A small number of bread shops and bakeries have decided to stay open for takeaway service or delivery. And there is at least one Roman gelateria doing deliveries

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/18/coronavirus-latest-news/

Csargo

03-19-2020, 05:08

What I want to know is who the 8 dead-beats who voted against the Families First Coronavirus Response Act:thwack: Those idiots need to be drawn and quartered....

Am I the only one who begins and ends the day with the morbid ritual of reviewing the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Interactive World Map?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Here in the States, we are trending about 10 days behind the Italians. At our current pace, confirmed cases are doubling every 5 days, although some of the new reports are undoubtedly due to the increasing number of tests being conducted.

I've been doing the same, and I found this site today https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

a completely inoffensive name

03-19-2020, 07:51

I highly recommend not staring at the numbers or the news all day.

Take this time to draw, paint, practice an instrument and otherwise doing things that bring joy into your life.
Spend your down time with your kids, read your favorite novels and dusty books sitting on the shelf.

Don't be a dick because you are stressed out.

Greyblades

03-19-2020, 08:36

Hell, maybe you could even play some total war.

Montmorency

03-20-2020, 00:31

Minnesota and Vermont declare grocery store workers emergency personnel eligible for such benefits as free childcare.

Spitballing on pandemic relief: Take whatever cash relief program gets implemented, and attach bonuses to the receipt of a completed census form.

More comparisons (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW) of South Korea and US in their responses. Interesting: The first COVID-19 case was identified on the same day in both countries.

Article on the appalling lack of data on COVID-19 prevalence and icidents rates and the mortality of the disease, as well as the lack of data on the efficacy of social distancing measures given their potential enormous medium-term costs.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

The author, John Ioannidis, even I know has stature as an academic superstar.

Counterpoint: An immediate rebuttal published on the same site, arguing that we already know what happens (China, Iran, Italy) without control measures, and that exponential growth is inevitable without controls until herd immunity is reached (in author's assertion ~half the population).
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/

Samurai might be especially interested in the debate.

What I want to know is who the 8 dead-beats who voted against the Families First Coronavirus Response Act:thwack: Those idiots need to be drawn and quartered....

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a31755559/coronavirus-8-republican-senators-vote-against-relief-package/

I'm not sure, but speculators may be worse than profiteers. Speculators with inside information who help suppress threat response while pulling up stakes - that's angry mob territory. All of that, on top of being one of the 3 Senators who voted against the 2012 STOCK Act, which banned Congressional insider trading from confidential information - that's military tribunal territory.
https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2016/nov/05/deborah-ross/deborah-ross-says-richard-burr-voted-against-ban-i/
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/818192535/burr-recording-sparks-questions-about-private-comments-on-covid-19

Senator Dumped Up to $1.6 Million of Stock After Reassuring Public About Coronavirus Preparedness
Intelligence Chair Richard Burr’s selloff came around the time he was receiving daily briefings on the health threat.

Soon after he offered public assurances that the government was ready to battle the coronavirus, the powerful chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Richard Burr, sold off a significant percentage of his stocks, unloading between $582,029 and $1.56 million of his holdings on Feb. 13 in 29 separate transactions.
[...]
Burr is not a particularly wealthy member of the Senate: Roll Call estimated his net worth at $1.7 million in 2018, indicating that the February sales significantly shaped his financial fortunes and spared him from some of the pain that many Americans are now facing.
[...]
According to the NPR report, Burr told attendees of the luncheon held at the Capitol Hill Club: “There’s one thing that I can tell you about this: It is much more aggressive in its transmission than anything that we have seen in recent history ... It is probably more akin to the 1918 pandemic.”

Burr’s public comments had been considerably less dire. In a Feb. 7 op-ed that he co-authored with another senator, he assured the public that “the United States today is better prepared than ever before to face emerging public health threats, like the coronavirus.” He wrote, “No matter the outbreak or threat, Congress and the federal government have been vigilant in identifying gaps in its readiness efforts and improving its response capabilities.”

Members of Congress are required by law to disclose their securities transactions.

Burr was one of just three senators who in 2012 opposed the bill that explicitly barred lawmakers and their staff from using nonpublic information for trades and required regular disclosure of those trades. In opposing the bill, Burr argued at the time that insider trading laws already applied to members of Congress. President Barack Obama signed the bill, known as the STOCK Act, that year.

:whip:

ReluctantSamurai

03-20-2020, 02:02

Kinda figured all the "Nays" were rank-and-file Republicans, although not all of them Trump supporters. Rand Paul (R-KY) was also the only "Nay" vote on the $8.3 billion coronavirus spending bill the Senate passed earlier this month. That he's voted this way might be suggested by a statement he made last year concerning Ebola, showing a similar lack of detail as Trump:

Ebola is “incredibly contagious” [and] can spread from one person to another standing three feet away.

(Ebola is spread through transmission of bodily fluids).

All 8 Senators are in states that currently have low incidences of COVID-19 cases except Texas which has the 10th most:shrug:

Montmorency

03-20-2020, 05:15

More promising applications in breaking chains of transmission, courtesy of Italy.
https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/1240279081293352964

How one small town at the center of the outbreak has cut infections virtually to zero: test all 3,300 in town, isolate the 3 percent who tested positive. Infection rate 10 days later down to .3 percent.

We can be less sanguine about yet another Senator discovered to be inside-trading off pandemic briefings. And she's the wife of the Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange. Cool.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/sen-kelly-loeffler-dumped-millions-in-stock-after-coronavirus-briefing

The other inside trading guy, Richard Burr, contributed to an immense cosmic irony by posting this in January.
https://twitter.com/SenatorBurr/status/1219989568457531392

Worst of all, millions of unemployment insurance claims imminent.

Hooahguy

03-20-2020, 05:56

ReluctantSamurai

03-20-2020, 12:48

Some of these are absolutely, friggin' hilarious:

https://www.usnews.com/cartoons/donald-trump

Coming to a city near you: (except for the picture of Mao, maybe:laugh4:)

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/photos/2020/02/11/coronavirus-in-chinas-wuhan-epicenter-of-epidemic

Beskar

03-20-2020, 15:48

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY

ReluctantSamurai

03-20-2020, 17:27

Beskar

Is the "Fun-O-Meter" a British thing?:laugh4:

Montmorency

03-20-2020, 17:51

New York City is 2-3 weeks away (https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-york/articles/2020-03-19/cuomo-cites-panic-over-rumors-says-martial-law-not-coming) from exhausting their stocks in key supplies. Every day that goes by I get more anxious. Where I am now it doesn't seem like a shelter in place will be ordered soon for my city, but every day that goes by it seems likelier. Of the report I saw, over half of the new cases today were under 40. And yet when I walk my dog I see people congregating and its freaking me out.

The number is growing partly because of a dramatic increase in testing. New York has cumulatively tested 22,000 people, including more than 7,500 in the past day, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.

HOLD UP

1. So the authorities previously said that by the end of the week they would be testing up to 7000 a day. They've already exceeded that target?
2. The Reuters article (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW) I linked recently reported a cumulative 60000 tests performed in the United States by Tuesday.
3. Assuming that on Thursday at the time of reporting the cumulative number of tests performed remained under 100000, then New York State, representing 6% of the American population, has conducted up to 1/3 of all COVID-19 tests in this country to date.

Damn, I guess Governor Cuomo really stepped up. You have to hand it to him.

Alternatively, other national leaders should be burned in effigy.

There's also:

Governor Cuomo
https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1239610734033670145
https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1239623814297915393

Some of these are absolutely, friggin' hilarious:

https://www.usnews.com/cartoons/donald-trump

https://i.imgur.com/D2StpkO.jpg

ReluctantSamurai

03-20-2020, 18:12

Damn, I guess Governor Cuomo really stepped up. You have to hand it to him.

If he continues to manage the outbreak the way a person in leadership should, guess who's a strong candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024:creep:

Csargo

03-20-2020, 19:17

The number is growing partly because of a dramatic increase in testing. New York has cumulatively tested 22,000 people, including more than 7,500 in the past day, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.

HOLD UP

1. So the authorities previously said that by the end of the week they would be testing up to 7000 a day. They've already exceeded that target?
2. The Reuters article (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW) I linked recently reported a cumulative 60000 tests performed in the United States by Tuesday.
3. Assuming that on Thursday at the time of reporting the cumulative number of tests performed remained under 100000, then New York State, representing 6% of the American population, has conducted up to 1/3 of all COVID-19 tests in this country to date.

Damn, I guess Governor Cuomo really stepped up. You have to hand it to him.

I read last night that 10 counties represent ~90% of all testing in the US so far, which seems crazy at this point. Read this (https://www.businessinsider.com/early-coronavirus-cdc-tests-distinguish-covid-water-2020-3?utm_source=reddit.com) as well. :wall:

a completely inoffensive name

03-20-2020, 19:23

Damn, I guess Governor Cuomo really stepped up. You have to hand it to him.

When will the Cuomo family get a bridge named after them?

Montmorency

03-20-2020, 20:43

I was just out for a walk about the neighborhood, early afternoon local. First time outside since last week. I was shocked at how much foot activity there is on the streets, perhaps even more than is typical. A few parents with kids, but not many sub-thirties overall. No more than a third of people masked (not counting service employees), which may be a good or a bad sign depending on how one looks at it.

Some establishments closed. Clothing, dental, insurance, you expect that. Restaurants of course open for pick-up. But another surprise was just how many places are active. Subways (sandwich chain) was closed, but Verizon was open. Bike hardware, liquor, glasses, dry cleaner, even hairdresser stores all open!

I wonder how the situation will develop into the spring.

Edit: Gotta police those surfaces, most significant transmission vector. So I used a hand covering to open doors. But see, habit is hard to break - leaving one shop I absent-mindedly pushed open the door with the uncovered hand.

I bought some takeout from a Chinese place. A year ago, lunch specials were ~$6.50 (including tax). Recently they've been $8. I was a little sheepish, but also disappointed, when they charged the same today. I somehow expected their prices to be discounted. :sweatdrop:

If he continues to manage the outbreak the way a person in leadership should, guess who's a strong candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024:creep:

I'll affect a diplomatic disposition and offer that we have had enough of New Yorkers in presidential politics lately.

I read last night that 10 counties represent ~90% of all testing in the US so far, which seems crazy at this point. Read this (https://www.businessinsider.com/early-coronavirus-cdc-tests-distinguish-covid-water-2020-3?utm_source=reddit.com) as well. :wall:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3f8sjzETQ5o

Amazons = coronavirus

This is gonna get sexy.

When will the Cuomo family get a bridge named after them?

Tappan Zee replacement. It is done.

Montmorency

03-20-2020, 21:12

Holy shit, I missed this from the morning. I guess most New Yorkers have. :laugh4:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/new-york-gov-cuomo-orders-100percent-of-non-essential-businesses-to-work-from-home.html

Gov. Andrew Cuomo ordered nonessential businesses to keep 100% of their workforce at home.
He also put in place stringent new restrictions on New Yorkers starting Sunday as the state grapples with the worst coronavirus outbreak in the U.S.
Cuomo said food delivery qualifies as an essential service.

“When I talk about the most drastic action we can take, this is the most drastic action we can take,” Cuomo said at a press conference in Albany. Cases across the state surged by 2,950 overnight to 7,102, he said. “This is not life as usual. Accept it. Realize it and deal with it.”

Cuomo acknowledged that the restrictions will force businesses to close and people to lose their jobs, adding that he’s suspending evictions across the state for 90 days.

“We’re all in quarantine now. We’re all in various levels of quarantine and it’s hard,” he said.

Well, now I know. And knowing is half the battle. :laugh4:

Viking

03-20-2020, 21:15

According to the source (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html) I am currently looking at, South Korea now has a case fatality rate of 0.84%. This a country that has taken testing to an extreme level (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51836898):

According to the same source, the case fatality rate for South Korea is now close to 1.1 percent.

a completely inoffensive name

03-20-2020, 21:15

I was just out for a walk about the neighborhood, early afternoon local. First time outside since last week. I was shocked at how much foot activity there is on the streets, perhaps even more than is typical. A few parents with kids, but not many sub-thirties overall. No more than a third of people masked (not counting service employees), which may be a good or a bad sign depending on how one looks at it.

Some establishments closed. Clothing, dental, insurance, you expect that. Restaurants of course open for pick-up. But another surprise was just how many places are active. Subways (sandwich chain) was closed, but Verizon was open. Bike hardware, liquor, glasses, dry cleaner, even hairdresser stores all open!

I wonder how the situation will develop into the spring.

Edit: Gotta police those surfaces, most significant transmission vector. So I used a hand covering to open doors. But see, habit is hard to break - leaving one shop I absent-mindedly pushed open the door with the uncovered hand.

I bought some takeout from a Chinese place. A year ago, lunch specials were ~$6.50 (including tax). Recently they've been $8. I was a little sheepish, but also disappointed, when they charged the same today. I somehow expected their prices to be discounted. :sweatdrop:

Thanks for the update Monty. Studies have shown that people need exposure to the outside to maintain mental health anyway.
What surprises me about your post is the number of establishments still open. On one hand I could see how impractical it would be to enforce non-essential businesses to close in NYC, but on the other hand public opinion regarding the virus has swung rapidly over the past week with a majority of people now feeling very concerned about the virus.

I would say treat every door like the bathroom door at an Olive Garden, just use a paper towel to open and close as needed to prevent direct contact.
Maybe we will see the return of the handkerchief into society?

Tappan Zee replacement. It is done.
Wow, and I was joking. I thought you guys only named bridges according to their connecting streets or Revolutionary War figures.

ReluctantSamurai

03-20-2020, 22:48

but on the other hand public opinion regarding the virus has swung rapidly over the past week with a majority of people now feeling very concerned about the virus.

When you see the folks over at Fox News slamming the tranny into hard reverse, you know something is afoot:oops:

And with the virus now reaching into the poorer areas of the world with far less medical resources, like Africa, S. America, Central America, we'll soon see whether the reporting since this all began was just "hype":boxedin:

Montmorency

03-21-2020, 02:29

What is the UK government doing in terms of relief? Substituting lost wages like Denmark (https://www.euractiv.com/section/coronavirus/news/danish-corona-hit-firms-get-state-aid-to-pay-75-of-salaries/)?

Here are the Democratic and Republican relief proposals set beside each other:
https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=406440
https://www.cbpp.org/blog/senate-gop-response-to-pandemic-recession-is-seriously-inadequate

Never stop pointing out the political pathologies that brought us here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-supplies.html

As reported cases of the virus in the United States have soared, Mr. Trump, who is known to recruit input from a variety of outside advisers, has been getting conflicting advice. The proliferating number of private sector voices with direct access to the president and his top advisers — notably his son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner — has resulted in a chaotic process.

The president’s advisers say they see the role of the federal government as a facilitator, as opposed to the chief producer or a national governor. They have tried to encourage states to get by with what they can, suggesting there will be support from the federal government but that this should not be the first option.

In practice, the administration has been trying to use the provision to jawbone companies into taking voluntary action while holding over them the possibility that the federal government would intervene, according to administration officials familiar with the state of play.

“We’re actually encouraged that the partnership with the private sector can meeting many of these needs,” said Marc Short, Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff, on Friday morning in a discussion with reporters.

https://newrepublic.com/article/156901/dismantled-state-takes-pandemic

Congressional testimony earlier [last] week featured an illuminating exchange between Representative Andy Harris, a Republican and medical doctor, and Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Harris mainly wanted to use his time questioning the officials who were testifying before Congress to attack a Democratic proposal to lower drug costs for people on Medicare (Harris worries it would stifle “innovation” in the lucrative world of vaccine manufacturing) and to praise the superior ability of the private sector to handle such crises.

The problem, though, was that the private sector hasn’t yet done anything to slow down the virus. “Quest and LabCorp now are geared up to do [coronavirus tests],” Harris asked. “Could they have geared up sooner?”

“As a clinician like yourself,” Redfield said in his answer, “I guess I anticipated that the private sector would have engaged and helped develop it for the clinical side.” He finished his response with more bewilderment: “I can tell you, having lived through the last eight weeks, I would have loved the private sector to be fully engaged eight weeks ago.”

Here were two men wondering aloud why reality had failed to conform to their ideology. Where was the private sector, exactly, during these eight weeks? How odd that these companies, whose only responsibility is to their shareholders, had failed to make up for the incompetence of this administration.

Meanwhile (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-rips-reporter-who-asked-him-calm-scared-americans-terrible-n1165031):

President Donald Trump excoriated an NBC News correspondent as a “terrible reporter” on Friday after he asked the president to calm Americans who were scared because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Trump’s latest personal broadside on the media came at a news briefing in which he appeared to minimize the fears of the American public by saying there was cause for optimism about drug therapies for coronavirus — treatments that one of his top government scientists had said were not at all proven.

At the Trump administration's coronavirus task force's daily briefing, Trump’s director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, made clear that any evidence about drug therapies being tested at the moment was strictly “anecdotal” and not the product of a “clinical trial.”

“You really can’t make any definitive statement about it,” Fauci said.

Moments earlier, Fauci was asked whether there was any evidence that one such drug— hydroxychloroquine — might be used as an effective prophylactic measure against coronavirus.

"The answer is no," Fauci replied.

Trump nevertheless said that he felt "good" about the treatments and that the federal government had already ordered "millions of units" of them.

NBC News’ Peter Alexander, a White House correspondent and a weekend anchor of "TODAY," then asked Trump whether his “positive spin” regarding the potential treatments was giving Americans false hope.

“Is it possible that your impulse to put a positive spin on things may be giving Americans a false sense of hope?” Alexander asked.

“No, I don’t think so,” Trump replied.

“It may work, it may not work, Trump said. “I feel good about. That’s all it is, it’s a feeling.”

Alexander responded by asking Trump to talk directly to Americans who are scared by the pandemic, which triggered the president to reply with an insult.

"What do you say to Americans who are scared though? I guess, nearly 200 dead, 14,000 who are sick, millions, as you witnessed, who are scared right now," Alexander asked. "What do you say to Americans who are watching you right now who are scared?"

“I say that you’re a terrible reporter,” Trump said. “That’s what I say. I think that’s a very nasty question.”

"The American people are looking for answers and they’re looking for hope, and you’re doing sensationalism," Trump said.

"Let’s see if it works," the president added about possible treatments. "It might and it might not. I happen to feel good about it, but who knows, I’ve been right a lot. Let’s see what happens," he added.

For all our lives, there are very few people we will ever be as psychologically intimate with as we have become with Donald Trump.

Pannonian

03-21-2020, 03:08

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-21-2020, 03:26

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY

That guy's voice really grinds my gears.

Now - let's get real - there's a serious question to be asked if shutting down all Western economies (and by extension invalidating the social model of Western Democracy) is worth it.

People like to talk about the "Liberal-Capitalist economy" or whatever but our economic model is an outgrowth of our social system - not the other way around.

Social distancing is fundamentally unnatural and inherently psychologically damaging, the longer we do it the worse the damage will be - especially for children. I have some idea of what I speak - having been home-schooled after ruthless bullying, for 18 months - after which my mother sent me to a larger school. It's probably not true to say I "never recovered" but those 18 months put me so far behind developmentally I missed out on all the good bits of being a teenager trying to catch up.

We have forgotten this but grandparents dying of pneumonia is a normal occurrence (one we'd virtually eliminated) whilst not being able to see or hug the ones you love for a year or more is not.

a completely inoffensive name

03-21-2020, 04:01

That guy's voice really grinds my gears.

Now - let's get real - there's a serious question to be asked if shutting down all Western economies (and by extension invalidating the social model of Western Democracy) is worth it.

People like to talk about the "Liberal-Capitalist economy" or whatever but our economic model is an outgrowth of our social system - not the other way around.

Social distancing is fundamentally unnatural and inherently psychologically damaging, the longer we do it the worse the damage will be - especially for children. I have some idea of what I speak - having been home-schooled after ruthless bullying, for 18 months - after which my mother sent me to a larger school. It's probably not true to say I "never recovered" but those 18 months put me so far behind developmentally I missed out on all the good bits of being a teenager trying to catch up.

We have forgotten this but grandparents dying of pneumonia is a normal occurrence (one we'd virtually eliminated) whilst not being able to see or hug the ones you love for a year or more is not.

...what?

Montmorency

03-21-2020, 06:00

Madagascar Confirms First Cases of Coronavirus (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-20/madagascar-confirms-first-cases-of-coronavirus-president)

It's over.

Greyblades

03-21-2020, 10:07

...what?

Long term quarantine and social distancing is going to cause increased misanthropy in society.

Crandar

03-21-2020, 10:42

An interesting paper (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) on the possible effects of different strategies (involving mitigation or suppression) against the current pandemic. It's only 20 pages, so it's worth a reading.

edyzmedieval

03-21-2020, 11:09

Day 12 since I've been at home, working from home as well... and as someone who is very social, this is really starting to wear me down.

Sure, I've got a lot of stuff to do - work, read, learn new things which I always postponed, game, write (check out my story in the Mead Hall!) and other things but it's the idea of staying in the house for at least another month that's horrid.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-21-2020, 11:43

...what?

In the UK the "suppression" strategy is estimated to save an additional 250,000 lives, mostly elderly people, vs millions of children who will miss at least half a year of school.

How many old people will die of "not coronavius" without ever seeing their grandchildren again?

ReluctantSamurai

03-21-2020, 12:23

Now - let's get real - there's a serious question to be asked if shutting down all Western economies (and by extension invalidating the social model of Western Democracy) is worth it.

but it's the idea of staying in the house for at least another month that's horrid.

In the UK the "suppression" strategy is estimated to save an additional 250,000 lives, mostly elderly people, vs millions of children who will miss at least half a year of school.

Long term quarantine and social distancing is going to cause increased misanthropy in society.

Seriously people???:rolleyes:

A line from "Heartbreak Ridge" comes to mind: "You adapt. You overcome. You improvise. Let's move. Four minutes."

In the UK an "additional 250,000 lives". In the US an "additional 1-2 million lives". In the entire world an additional [add your own statistical favorite number]. Maybe we should just adopt the asinine "herd mentality" and let the virus run ape-s&*% across the planet, killing millions, and then use the survivors as blood-bags to inoculate everyone else:shame:

Look...quarantine is most certainly a bitch. You hear from just about every virologist out there, that because this sucker is so infectious, breaking the infection chain is crucial to stopping this virus. But until a vaccine is developed, quarantine is the best weapon in the arsenal to slow down the spread of the virus. Another famous movie line comes to mind (from The Terminator): "Listen, and understand! That Terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead!"

So adapt, overcome, and improvise.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-21-2020, 13:24

Hi Corona (maybe)

:rolleyes:

Beskar

03-21-2020, 13:56

What is the UK government doing in terms of relief? Substituting lost wages

They were discussing Universal Income on the news yesterday.

Looks like government paying wages (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/20/government-pay-wages-jobs-coronavirus-rishi-sunak?fbclid=IwAR0OT5Ke6G8U76DgTNjCuu00BmxsZANsPlx9L7Qft8PyU3Zu2VubLzGImGQ)

ReluctantSamurai

03-21-2020, 14:13

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-21-2020, 18:58

Corona Hi? I wish, but my favorite alcoholic beverage is in short supply, at the moment~;)

Look, the R "Naught" statistic clearly shows that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is more infectious than the flu. If you can get through the "geek speak", this particular analysis illustrates it well:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30144-4/fulltext

Granted this looking at travel restrictions and not social distancing, but the theory of reducing the number of contacts is still viable, IMHO.

Taking that together with Bruce Alyward's (Assistant Director-General of the WHO) comments in the joint WHO-China study released near the end of February, that:

A recommendation for social distancing as far back as the end of February.

So...the alternatives are what....?:shrug:

More deaths.

As I said previously, many of the older folk in the UK would prefer that because they come from a generation that accepts the death of elderly people from pneumonia, as opposed to dementia, as normal.

ACIN and Monty have been demanding Socialism and this virus is giving it to them: the state pays the wages of people not working, the start nationalises private businesses, cancellation of elections for "the public good" along with suppression of the right to free assembly and free association. The draconian measures taken by the UK Government is the prime cause of the current panic buying, the first result of which has already been a massive reduction in choice as supermarkets move to stack shelves with a single type of toilet paper instead of 20, the next step there is rationing, followed by state control of production.

The US has not experienced this before because it has never really needed to move to a "war footing" like Europe.

It's going to get a lot worse, if sickness disrupts food production then there will be real rationing, which means stretching limited food supplies so that everybody has something, that means a black market...

Now, excuse me, I need to take the drugz.

Viking

03-21-2020, 19:00

A team from Sky News visited the hospitals in Cremona and Bergamo, two of the worst hit towns in Italy. Two videos (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-everyone-dies-alone-heartbreak-at-the-italian-hospital-on-the-brink-of-collapse-11961130) (particular the second video (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)) show what the physical reality behind the statistics is like: hospitals filled up with people suffering from severe pneumonia.

The video of army trucks (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-italian-army-called-in-to-carry-away-corpses-as-citys-crematorium-is-overwhelmed-11959994) carrying coffins with the dead is also from Bergamo, where the local crematorium apparently can't keep up with the pace that people currently are dying at in the city:

The crematorium of Bergamo, working at full capacity, 24 hours a day, can cremate 25 dead", said a spokesperson for the local authority.

"It is clear that it could not stand up to the numbers of the past few days."

Coffins are now being taken to crematoriums in Modena, Acqui Terme, Domodossola, Parma, Piacenza and several other cities.

Once the bodies have been cremated, the ashes will be brought back to Bergamo.

ReluctantSamurai

03-21-2020, 19:22

More deaths.

Despite your claim that "many of the older folk prefer death" as an out from dementia (like all elderly people are going to suffer dementia at some point:rolleyes:), that's a pretty cavalier attitude from someone in their early 30's. Feeling bullet-proof because your age-group is not suffering the majority of the deaths from COVID-19(for the moment, at least)?

Not saying Socialism is the answer, either. And despite the fact that draconian measures have brought the spread of the virus in China almost to a halt, I would not have wanted to be on that lock-down to where I might get shot for leaving my home.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-21-2020, 19:45

Despite your claim that "many of the older folk prefer death" as an out from dementia (like all elderly people are going to suffer dementia at some point:rolleyes:), that's a pretty cavalier attitude from someone in their early 30's. Feeling bullet-proof because your age-group is not suffering the majority of the deaths from COVID-19(for the moment, at least)?

Not saying Socialism is the answer, either. And despite the fact that draconian measures have brought the spread of the virus in China almost to a halt, I would not have wanted to be on that lock-down to where I might get shot for leaving my home.

I think you have a rather cavalier attitude to the shutdown of civil society and suspension of democracy - take a look at what's happening in Israel right now. I'm not suggesting that elderly people *want* death I'm communicating what many of them have told me, they are far more stoical about it than than Generation-X and the Millennials.

ReluctantSamurai

03-21-2020, 20:12

I think you have a rather cavalier attitude to the shutdown of civil society and suspension of democracy

I don't think that I do, but I'm sure that's open to debate:shrug: I'm saying that I'm willing to accept a short-term (several weeks?) shut-down if it means getting ahead of this virus instead of always reacting to it. Now it may well be that a single mother living from pay-check to pay-check might vehemently disagree, or a business that has to shutter its' doors-permanently-might also disagree, but the alternative, as you put it, "more deaths", is unacceptable to me.

So if "more deaths" is an acceptable alternative to you, where do you stop? Just how many deaths are you willing to accept as payment for your social rights?

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-21-2020, 22:00

I don't think that I do, but I'm sure that's open to debate:shrug: I'm saying that I'm willing to accept a short-term (several weeks?) shut-down if it means getting ahead of this virus instead of always reacting to it. Now it may well be that a single mother living from pay-check to pay-check might vehemently disagree, or a business that has to shutter its' doors-permanently-might also disagree, but the alternative, as you put it, "more deaths", is unacceptable to me.

So if "more deaths" is an acceptable alternative to you, where do you stop? Just how many deaths are you willing to accept as payment for your social rights?

The UK Government is already planning for this to last a minimum of 12 weeks whilst our scientists are warning it could be 12-18 months. That assumes there is a vaccine by then, if ever, because this is the same family of viruses that causes the Common Cold. The strength of the restrictions will probably vary in that time but this is a circumstance of months and possibly years, not weeks.

Suicides rates are about to skyrocket - as is domestic abuse and homicide - how many more of those deaths are you willing to stomach?

ReluctantSamurai

03-21-2020, 22:59

but this is a circumstance of months and possibly years, not weeks.

I wouldn't presume to be able to predict the future---otherwise I'd be in a far more comfortable place than sitting in front of my computer typing this. This thread has been characterized as panic porn for calling this pandemic dire circumstances for humanity. I disagreed with that....until now. Months? Years? That's panic porn, IMHO. What leads you to think that the UK, or any other Western society is going to take advantage of the situation and go all Chairman Mao on its' population?

Suicides rates are about to skyrocket - as is domestic abuse and homicide - how many more of those deaths are you willing to stomach?

You still didn't answer my question. How many deaths are an acceptable payment for your "social rights?"

I'll answer yours---the number of deaths from suicides, homicides, and other forms of social violence will certainly go up. The longer mobility is restricted, the more there will be. I'm not a sociologist, nor a statistician, so I can't give a body count. However.....I do know that if SARS-CoV-2 is left to run rampant in the name of "social rights", the body count will absolutely dwarf those who die from societal violence.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-22-2020, 00:45

I wouldn't presume to be able to predict the future---otherwise I'd be in a far more comfortable place than sitting in front of my computer typing this. This thread has been characterized as panic porn for calling this pandemic dire circumstances for humanity. I disagreed with that....until now. Months? Years? That's panic porn, IMHO. What leads you to think that the UK, or any other Western society is going to take advantage of the situation and go all Chairman Mao on its' population?

I'm not talking about some sinister plot, I'm talking about what's happening right now and it being normalised after it's been in place for 18 months. That's the time-frame we're being given here, 3 months of lock down minimum and 12-18 months of at least moderate social distancing.

You still didn't answer my question. How many deaths are an acceptable payment for your "social rights?"

I'll answer yours---the number of deaths from suicides, homicides, and other forms of social violence will certainly go up. The longer mobility is restricted, the more there will be. I'm not a sociologist, nor a statistician, so I can't give a body count. However.....I do know that if SARS-CoV-2 is left to run rampant in the name of "social rights", the body count will absolutely dwarf those who die from societal violence.

The difference between "mitigation" and "suppression" in the UK is pegged at roughly 230,000 lives, mostly elderly, how many extra suicides and battered young mothers is that worth to you? It's not a 1:1 equivalency, either, because death by disease is a natural part of life.

Pannonian

03-22-2020, 01:39

I'm not talking about some sinister plot, I'm talking about what's happening right now and it being normalised after it's been in place for 18 months. That's the time-frame we're being given here, 3 months of lock down minimum and 12-18 months of at least moderate social distancing.

The difference between "mitigation" and "suppression" in the UK is pegged at roughly 230,000 lives, mostly elderly, how many extra suicides and battered young mothers is that worth to you? It's not a 1:1 equivalency, either, because death by disease is a natural part of life.

The Great Smog of London resulted in an estimated 4,000 deaths, with upper estimates counting the final total at 10,000. That led to societal changes. You want 230,000 deaths to be something we accept?

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-22-2020, 02:07

The Great Smog of London resulted in an estimated 4,000 deaths, with upper estimates counting the final total at 10,000. That led to societal changes. You want 230,000 deaths to be something we accept?

The smog was man-made.

Montmorency

03-22-2020, 02:32

https://i.imgur.com/nKFCi8X.jpg

Just because one individual's family members have a fatalistic outlook does not indicate something essential about a generation, who themselves have known widespread lethal infectious disease except perhaps in their distant childhoods.

For those concerned, taking responsive and responsible emergency measures is not socialism, any more than contesting a military invasion is socialism. Now, the structural evils of American society highlighted by the epidemic and our response to it make as good a case for socialism as any, but that's distinct from effective emergency relief. Only Randian psychos (https://committeetounleashprosperity.com/release-committee-to-unleash-prosperity-unveils-4-point-plan-to-rescue-economy/) could stand athwart the latter.

Americans didn't experience WW2 the way the UK did because we got richer and stronger and more prosperous as the war wound on. But the comparison is futile in terms of experience, because a pandemic is not actually like a war beyond the need for a strong collective response. We are living through an economic deep freeze; neither Americans nor Europeans have ever experienced anything like this in living memory.

And while smog was manmade, all social responses and government policies are also manmade. We are always burdened with decisions.

Look, this is out of our hands. In a month's time we will, as I keep emphasizing, have a more visceral experience of the costs of both blanket suppression and high caseload, tens of thousands of deaths, hospital overrun. We're going to be revisiting the data as it is updated. No one should act as though our course of action has been set for the remainder of the month, let alone the remainder of the year.

But there is no substitute for mass testing. If we can test millions of people, at that point we no longer require massive quarantines to flatten the peak. We can isolate positive cases and break transmission to the point where infection slows to a manageable trickle, with increasing surefootedness as asymptomatic or recovered individuals can freely return to normal life en masse. If we can't get capacity to test millions, we're blind and have few options.

A team from Sky News visited the hospitals in Cremona and Bergamo, two of the worst hit towns in Italy. Two videos (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-everyone-dies-alone-heartbreak-at-the-italian-hospital-on-the-brink-of-collapse-11961130) (particular the second video (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)) show what the physical reality behind the statistics is like: hospitals filled up with people suffering from severe pneumonia.

The video of army trucks (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-italian-army-called-in-to-carry-away-corpses-as-citys-crematorium-is-overwhelmed-11959994) carrying coffins with the dead is also from Bergamo, where the local crematorium apparently can't keep up with the pace that people currently are dying at in the city:

New York City hospitals are already reportedly on the verge of being overwhelmed, and the peak is an estimated ~40 days away. Having so few hospitals, doctors, and nurses per capita compared to other rich countries is really biting us.

Pannonian

03-22-2020, 03:12

The smog was man-made.

And deliberately not following a course known to be effective is not a similarly artificial decision? China have got it down to zero local transmissions for several days in a row. Other countries have similarly got the numbers down. We know what works.

a completely inoffensive name

03-22-2020, 03:37

The difference between "mitigation" and "suppression" in the UK is pegged at roughly 230,000 lives, mostly elderly, how many extra suicides and battered young mothers is that worth to you? It's not a 1:1 equivalency, either, because death by disease is a natural part of life.

Yo, this is straight up disgusting. "my life is worth more than yours old man cause you are supposed to die by now from your fragile body."

Talking about battered young mothers as some sympathy card while simultaneously downplaying the pain that older patients go through of having 5-10 days of their life choked by limited breathing capacity and slow death.

Get your head out of your ass.

ReluctantSamurai

03-22-2020, 03:43

Pannonian

03-22-2020, 10:28

Dominic Cummings, the prime minister's senior aide, became convinced that Britain would be better able to resist a lethal second wave of the disease next winter if Whitty's prediction that 60% to 80% of the population became infected was right and Britain developed "herd immunity".

Cummings was the political driver behind Brexit and Johnson's election ("Get Brexit done"). And now he's the driver behind the UK's medical policy on a pandemic.

Viking

03-22-2020, 11:38

In the UK the "suppression" strategy is estimated to save an additional 250,000 lives, mostly elderly people, vs millions of children who will miss at least half a year of school.

Mostly elderly, but when dealing with such large number of deceased, a significant number of children are likely to lose at least one of their parents (to be clear, it has already happened (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-death-life.html) at least once).

This report (https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf) on 3200 dead from COVID-19 in Italy found that 36 of the deceased (about 2%) were between the ages of 30-49; and 9 individuals in this group (0.28% of the 3200) were between the ages of 30-39. The proportion of younger people may go up as time passes; it could be that younger individuals on average have a more drawn out progression of the disease before they die, given that they otherwise may be of better health.

250,000 lives saved would therefore likely, at the minimum, include 700 people aged 30-39, and another 2,100 people aged 40-49.

Those are the deaths, but another issue is the potential for a permanently weakened health. 96.5% of the deceased in the Italian report had acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). If any of those who survive COVID-19 also acquire this syndrome, this is part of what they risk (https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/ards/symptoms-causes/syc-20355576):

Breathing problems. Many people with ARDS recover most of their lung function within several months to two years, but others may have breathing problems for the rest of their lives. Even people who do well usually have shortness of breath and fatigue and may need supplemental oxygen at home for a few months.

Problems with memory and thinking clearly. Sedatives and low levels of oxygen in the blood can lead to memory loss and cognitive problems after ARDS. In some cases, the effects may lessen over time, but in others, the damage may be permanent.

All of this also needs to be factored in for the cost analysis.

Suicides rates are about to skyrocket - as is domestic abuse and homicide - how many more of those deaths are you willing to stomach?

Suicide numbers could go up, but it is not obvious that they will skyrocket. This is a national crisis as much as a personal one.

Notably, suicide rates appear to be lower while countries are at war (https://oxfordmedicine.com/view/10.1093/med/9780198570059.001.0001/med-9780198570059-chapter-31). This could to an extent be linked to lower unemployment rates, which currently are trending starkly in the opposite direction.

New York City hospitals are already reportedly on the verge of being overwhelmed, and the peak is an estimated ~40 days away. Having so few hospitals, doctors, and nurses per capita compared to other rich countries is really biting us.

I saw that, too. Just found this Bloomberg article with some more details, including for the larger area:

“This is the tipping point,” said Anne Goldman, vice president for non-education members at the United Federation of Teachers, which represents some health care workers. “We’re pretty much saturated with critically ill.”

[...]

In New Jersey, Holy Name Hospital has admitted 60 confirmed or suspected Covid-19 patients. The 321-bed facility in Teaneck is creating dozens of special new rooms.

[...]

Seventeen staff members have tested positive, including one who’s “very sick,” Jarrett said. Holy Name’s chief executive officer, Michael Maron, learned Friday that he tested positive.

[...]

Goldman, who is also a nurse, says that Elmhurst Hospital and NYU’s Brooklyn campus are seeing their intensive care units filled with a share of patients under 40 years old they had not anticipated.

“It’s not who we were expecting,” she says.

Over half of all Covid-19 patients in New York are between 18 and 49, the state says.

The swell is pushing out patients with other serious conditions, Goldman says. Cancer patients are having chemo treatments postponed, and wait times for treatment of even severe injuries, such as broken limbs, are spiking.

‘Tipping Point’ at New York Area Hospitals as Virus Cases Mount (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-21/-tipping-point-at-new-york-area-hospitals-as-virus-cases-mount)

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-22-2020, 17:15

And deliberately not following a course known to be effective is not a similarly artificial decision? China have got it down to zero local transmissions for several days in a row. Other countries have similarly got the numbers down. We know what works.

China will shoot you in the head if you disobey the Government - are you advocating that here? Singapore just enacts corporal punishment, we do not have that kind of society. Italy has started to see numbers fall but only once the population was sufficiently terrified of the disease, a week ago Italians were flouting restrictions just like Brits are now.

In any case, both China and Singapore are still seeing cases coming into the country, which means that they need to keep restrictions in place for the foreseable future - it's like keeping your hand on a saucepan lid to stop the pan boiling over - as soon as you let go the lid come flying off and all the steam comes out.

Yo, this is straight up disgusting. "my life is worth more than yours old man cause you are supposed to die by now from your fragile body."

Talking about battered young mothers as some sympathy card while simultaneously downplaying the pain that older patients go through of having 5-10 days of their life choked by limited breathing capacity and slow death.

Get your head out of your ass.

Not remotely what I said. In case you missed the hint I'm currently self isolating after developing a Dry Cough yesterday, today the cough isn't too bad but I have a sore throat, am dehydrated and am starting to feel a fever coming on. After writing this I'm moving my PhD research to the university's shared cloud storage and writing a letter to a colleague with my username and password authorising her to retrieve the research in the event of my death.

No, I am absolutely not joking - I'm working on the principle I have something like a 1 in 800 to 1 in 200 chance of not surviving this, which is pretty lousy odds, really.

Now, my point is this: Shutting down civil society for 12-18 months, which is what is now being subtly explained to the British public, will cause long-term damage to a lot of people. Mostly children who's development will be stunted, and will probably end up with health problems later in life from being overweight. Then there are the people with depression who will be deprived of stimulus, that group is at high risk of suicide but even if they don't become suicidal they can become dependent on anti-depressants or just plat out stop being able to look after themselves. Then there are the elderly whom you are so worried about despite poring scorn on them a week ago - many of them will die alone and afraid from a completely unrelated condition, having never caught the virus.

You are still only looking ahead weeks - I'm looking 6, 12, 18 months down the line - I'm thinking about the teenagers who don't get to have those early relationships and silly first kisses and the grandparents who pass away from heart attack or stroke before even seeing their grandchildren for the first time.

You're just looking at a raw number of people who might not die because they didn't catch a disease - you're not looking at the overall calculation and you're not appreciating that this is the calculation governments are making that calculation. They're looking at the degree of social distancing they enact and they're projecting how many extra suicides it will cause, how much social unrest, how much economic damage, and they're weighing that up against a number of lives they might save, and they ARE asking how many of those people are elderly and how many would live for five more years if they don't get Corvid-19.

So, respectfully, remove your own head from your own fundament - you are doing exactly what I am doing, weighing some lives against others, one type of suffering against another type of suffering.

Cummings was the political driver behind Brexit and Johnson's election ("Get Brexit done"). And now he's the driver behind the UK's medical policy on a pandemic.

You really need to post your sources.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-22-2020, 17:30

I'm absolutely speechless:jawdrop:

The figures reported are:

Do nothing: 500,000 dead.

Mitigation (plan before Monday): 250,000 dead

Suppression (what we are doing now, shut down society until further notice): 20,000 dead.

As I said to the others - how many lives are you willing to ruin to save that many people? If a million children have developmental problems later in life due to being locked up for 18 months is that acceptable? An extra 10,000 suicides of people in their early 20's? 2 million cases of PTSD?

It's a two sided equation, it's not just "how much are you willing to pay for your freedom" it's "how many lives are you willing to destroy on each side before you feel the scales are balanced." The longer we follow the suppression strategy the worse it gets. 12 month brings us to next March, which means (for example) the 2020 University Cohort don't actually physically go to University in September. 18 months takes us to the following September - those students are currently 17 and can't drink. Normally they would come to University at 18, go out to pubs, clubs etc. and then have calmed down by their second year and started buckling down for their degrees - which is fine because your first year doesn't count towards your grade. If they don't go to Uni next year and have online courses then they'll arrive at the start of their second year, go crazy, and all under-perform in their exams. That entire cohort will have degree results significantly worse as a result - which will follow them for life. The 2021 Cohort will have missed all of their final year of school and many may not apply at all, meaning they might never go to university.

This is just one example of the potential long-term impact.

Now, I'm not suggesting the UK sacrifice 250,000 people for the sake of the other 66 million, but I'm pointing out that there are very serious long-term consequences to the policies of social isolation that Western Democratic Governments are enacting. So maybe think a bit more critically and don't be so enthusiastic to give away all your rights and privileges.

Pannonian

03-22-2020, 17:52

China will shoot you in the head if you disobey the Government - are you advocating that here? Singapore just enacts corporal punishment, we do not have that kind of society. Italy has started to see numbers fall but only once the population was sufficiently terrified of the disease, a week ago Italians were flouting restrictions just like Brits are now.

In any case, both China and Singapore are still seeing cases coming into the country, which means that they need to keep restrictions in place for the foreseable future - it's like keeping your hand on a saucepan lid to stop the pan boiling over - as soon as you let go the lid come flying off and all the steam comes out.

You really need to post your sources.

The source was the Sunday Times.

Taiwan: population 23 million
Taiwan: 169 coronavirus cases

Pannonian

03-22-2020, 17:55

Now, I'm not suggesting the UK sacrifice 250,000 people for the sake of the other 66 million, but I'm pointing out that there are very serious long-term consequences to the policies of social isolation that Western Democratic Governments are enacting. So maybe think a bit more critically and don't be so enthusiastic to give away all your rights and privileges.

Do you still want to go ahead with Brexit now that we've seen what happens when people anticipate shortages? We don't currently have supply issues; the issue is with the consumer. We are due to reduce EU imports by 95% at the end of the year if nothing is done. Still sounds good?

ReluctantSamurai

03-22-2020, 18:11

China will shoot you in the head if you disobey the Government - are you advocating that here?

If you read personal accounts (NOT from virologists or other scientists) of people from Hubei Province, things were draconian in nature....but not that draconian (and yes, it doesn't mean things couldn't get that far). The Chinese accepted their scientists word that breaking the contagion chains was the method to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2, and they bought in. Temperature checked when you left your dwelling; temperature checked when you used public transportation; temperature checked when you got to your destination; and the same on the journey home (hell, temperature checked BEFORE you got your temperature checked, probably:stare:)

In any case, both China and Singapore are still seeing cases coming into the country

The fact that they are finding those cases in the first place means they are aggressively monitoring incoming travelers. Anyone found to be infected is quarantined. Will that catch 100%? Probably not, but sooner or later someone will come up with a test that shows a +/- result much quicker than is now available.

No, I am absolutely not joking - I'm working on the principle I have something like a 1 in 800 to 1 in 200 chance of not surviving this, which is pretty lousy odds, really.

Sorry to hear that. Stay as well as you can be. The odds (at the moment) are still in your favor.

Now, my point is this: Shutting down civil society for 12-18 months, which is what is now being subtly explained to the British public, will cause long-term damage to a lot of people.

12-18 months of complete shutdown is over-reaction, IMHO. However, the biggest hole in your argument is the very methodology your are bitching about. Breaking the contamination chain is THE paramount factor in containing this virus. Numero-uno. It trumps every other factor. How is this done? Just look around the world to see what others have done.

1. Testing, testing, and testing on top of your testing. Knowing WHERE the virus has spread to allows you to organize containment. That's what the situation in S. Korea has shown. When you find a "hotspot" beginning to emerge, comes the next part.

2. Isolate the area in question to the fullest extent you can. That's what China did. And if you look at their current situation, that strategy worked (for the moment). And for a case failure, look at Italy.

Restrictions of your "civil liberties" via cancellation of events, bans on air travel, and in the worst case scenarios, severe lock-downs on personal travels, actually will SHORTEN the severity of the outbreak. Repeat, at the expense of some short-term inconvenience, the long-term situation will be much better. That's a trade-off that I'm personally willing to make.

As I said to the others - how many lives are you willing to ruin to save that many people? If a million children have developmental problems later in life due to being locked up for 18 months is that acceptable? An extra 10,000 suicides of people in their early 20's? 2 million cases of PTSD?

None of that shit matters if they are dead. That dog doesn't hunt, in my world.:inquisitive:

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-22-2020, 19:33

Do you still want to go ahead with Brexit now that we've seen what happens when people anticipate shortages? We don't currently have supply issues; the issue is with the consumer. We are due to reduce EU imports by 95% at the end of the year if nothing is done. Still sounds good?

Brexit question importance = 0%

If you read personal accounts (NOT from virologists or other scientists) of people from Hubei Province, things were draconian in nature....but not that draconian (and yes, it doesn't mean things couldn't get that far). The Chinese accepted their scientists word that breaking the contagion chains was the method to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2, and they bought in. Temperature checked when you left your dwelling; temperature checked when you used public transportation; temperature checked when you got to your destination; and the same on the journey home (hell, temperature checked BEFORE you got your temperature checked, probably:stare:)

China doesn't have to shoot people in the head because the people already know they will be shot for disobedience. By contrast, in the UK when the Government asks people to limit social contact everyone goes to the beach. Together.

The fact that they are finding those cases in the first place means they are aggressively monitoring incoming travelers. Anyone found to be infected is quarantined. Will that catch 100%? Probably not, but sooner or later someone will come up with a test that shows a +/- result much quicker than is now available.

This is a fair point, but no Western country has the inclination on infrastructure for this - remember the Right to Privacy? Most Democratic countries have rules that inhibit the state, to an extent, from tracking individuals as they go about their daily lives. China does not - it follows you everywhere.

Sorry to hear that. Stay as well as you can be. The odds (at the moment) are still in your favor.

My research is the only part of me that matters, though I would not want to upset my parents by dying - especially if they can't come to the funeral.

12-18 months of complete shutdown is over-reaction, IMHO. However, the biggest hole in your argument is the very methodology your are bitching about. Breaking the contamination chain is THE paramount factor in containing this virus. Numero-uno. It trumps every other factor. How is this done? Just look around the world to see what others have done.

OK, so you think 12-18 months is OTT. How long will you put up with it, 3, 6? If after three months restrictions are eased and cases spike? Expereince with the Spanish Flu shows quite clearly that these sorts of control measures are only effective whilst they remain in place. You can't full eradicate the virus so as soon as the measures are lifted it flairs back up. The epidemic ends only two ways.

1. It burns itself out.

2. You find an effective vaccine.

1. Testing, testing, and testing on top of your testing. Knowing WHERE the virus has spread to allows you to organize containment. That's what the situation in S. Korea has shown. When you find a "hotspot" beginning to emerge, comes the next part.

2. Isolate the area in question to the fullest extent you can. That's what China did. And if you look at their current situation, that strategy worked (for the moment). And for a case failure, look at Italy.

Restrictions of your "civil liberties" via cancellation of events, bans on air travel, and in the worst case scenarios, severe lock-downs on personal travels, actually will SHORTEN the severity of the outbreak. Repeat, at the expense of some short-term inconvenience, the long-term situation will be much better. That's a trade-off that I'm personally willing to make.

Watch South Korea and China over the next few months - my prediction is that they will lose control as soon as restrictions are eased.

None of that shit matters if they are dead. That dog doesn't hunt, in my world.:inquisitive:

The majority of the people Corvid-19 will kill would have died within 5-10 years in any case, the people with PTSD, developmental problems etc. are unlikely to die of Corvid-19. That's the thing - there's very little overlap of the two groups.

1.5 million people in the UK are not going to be isolate, no human contact, for at least 12 weeks. It's on day two and it's pretty rough, I can tell you, not seeing another human being.

Pannonian

03-22-2020, 19:44

Brexit question importance = 0%

People need to eat, you know. We are due to lose 95% of our importing capacity from the EU at the end of the year. Do you want us to do something about it, or do you want to ignore it?

OK, so you think 12-18 months is OTT. How long will you put up with it, 3, 6? If after three months restrictions are eased and cases spike? Expereince with the Spanish Flu shows quite clearly that these sorts of control measures are only effective whilst they remain in place. You can't full eradicate the virus so as soon as the measures are lifted it flairs back up. The epidemic ends only two ways.

Very recent experience (current and ongoing in fact) shows that people anticipating shortages will strip the shelves bare, leaving nothing for those who can't get there in time (like NHS staff). This is with no current problems with the supply chain. When there will be problems with the supply chain, is this going to get better? How long do you want this state of affairs to go on for?

Beskar

03-22-2020, 20:22

Whilst all this hysteria about Covid-19 is going on, please do make sure to take good care of yourselves. Unfortunately someone I know just passed away with sepsis. I don't know the full story, but I heard they were resistant in getting help. So please, reach out and let people know, and if you are really unwell do get treatment asap.

ReluctantSamurai

03-22-2020, 21:10

You can't full eradicate the virus so as soon as the measures are lifted it flairs back up

So far, that hasn't been the case in China, which is the only example we have to work off of currently.

my prediction is that they will lose control as soon as restrictions are eased

And you base this prediction on........:shrug:

The majority of the people Corvid-19 will kill would have died within 5-10 years in any case, the people with PTSD, developmental problems etc. are unlikely to die of Corvid-19. That's the thing - there's very little overlap of the two groups.

There is no epidemiological evidence that would support that statement. You have absolutely no idea who's going to become infected and who is not. What we do know is that if you break the contagion chain, less people will be exposed, and therefore less people get infected.

And again, this "I don't really give a shit how many old folks will die, cuz' they're just Walking Dead anyways" spiel is not only twisting potential fatalities to suit your whims (elderly people who were going to die soon anyway, as opposed to "millions of PTSD kids"), it's just another form of racism, AFAIAC, that we're going to start seeing more of; whether that be Asians, Iranians, Italians, or the elderly (ie the "Boomer Remover slur currently in vogue here in the US).

1.5 million people in the UK are not going to be isolate, no human contact, for at least 12 weeks

That's not how it works. In order to contract SARS-CoV-2, you have to ingest respiratory fluids from an infected host; either directly from being coughed/sneezed upon (or as a corollary, inhale infected aerosol), or by touching a surface laden with viable virus, and then touching your face. The epidemiologists have more or less determined 3m (or 6ft) is a safe enough distancing to cut your chances of inhaling infected aerosol drastically. Nothing I have read to date says no human contact, period.

Expereince with the Spanish Flu shows quite clearly that these sorts of control measures are only effective whilst they remain in place

This is not the H1N1 of 1918 (and by many accounts it should be called the Stars and Stripes Flu, because it likely started here in the US, or at the very least, spread to Europe by all the troops we were sending there), and there were little to no containment protocols in place at that time.

It is interesting to note how two cities in America fared drastically different during that outbreak:

https://www.wsls.com/features/2020/03/18/2-cities-handled-this-health-crisis-different-the-results-couldnt-have-been-more-opposite/

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/metro/st-louis-saw-the-deadly-spanish-flu-epidemic-coming-shutting/article_52e5e46d-1f30-5f31-a706-786785692bb5.html

In early October, city health commissioner Dr. Max C. Starkloff ordered the closure of schools, movie theaters, saloons, sporting events and other public gathering spots. Churches were told to suspend Sunday services. At the time, with nearly 800,000 residents, St. Louis was among the top 10 largest American cities.

“In an epidemic, somebody has to have the authority to make those kinds of decisions that infringe on people’s rights,” said Pamela Walker, who was the city’s health director from 2007 to 2015. “He had been health director for long enough to know his city and how people interacted. He also had the public’s trust.”

With the flu continuing its rampage, Starkloff imposed a stricter quarantine in November, closing down all businesses with few exceptions including banks, newspapers, embalmers and coffin makers, according to Post-Dispatch archives.

Thanks to the quarantine, St. Louis’ death rate was lowest among the 10 biggest cities at the time. In Philadelphia, where bodies piled up on sidewalks when the morgues overflowed, the death rate was nearly twice as high.

It was true for 1918, and it's true now. Quarantine works....but the key is trust. Trust that the people in charge know what they're doing (or in China, trust or else....), which is why we here in the States are in for far more pain than has been endured so far....our leadership sucks.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-22-2020, 21:49

People need to eat, you know. We are due to lose 95% of our importing capacity from the EU at the end of the year. Do you want us to do something about it, or do you want to ignore it?

Very recent experience (current and ongoing in fact) shows that people anticipating shortages will strip the shelves bare, leaving nothing for those who can't get there in time (like NHS staff). This is with no current problems with the supply chain. When there will be problems with the supply chain, is this going to get better? How long do you want this state of affairs to go on for?

The current panic is not just about shortages - it's about fear of disease and fear of quarantine. Principally it is about being pulled out of your house on a stretcher or in a body bag covered in your own faeces.

So far, that hasn't been the case in China, which is the only example we have to work off of currently.

And you base this prediction on........:shrug:

Papers I have read comparing this to the flu pandemic, noting that cities which lifted restrictions saw flareups - because people brought the disease in. The comparison between 1918 US and the modern world is relevant because it's easier to travel from the US to Australia today than it was from East to west back then.

There is no epidemiological evidence that would support that statement. You have absolutely no idea who's going to become infected and who is not. What we do know is that if you break the contagion chain, less people will be exposed, and therefore less people get infected.

And again, this "I don't really give a shit how many old folks will die, cuz' they're just Walking Dead anyways" spiel is not only twisting potential fatalities to suit your whims (elderly people who were going to die soon anyway, as opposed to "millions of PTSD kids"), it's just another form of racism, AFAIAC, that we're going to start seeing more of; whether that be Asians, Iranians, Italians, or the elderly (ie the "Boomer Remover slur currently in vogue here in the US).

Now, first off, gonna point this out - stop swearing - it's not helpful and all it does is antagonise me.

Corvid-19 kills the old and infirm, children are the least affected, to date no child had died of the disease. So, your public health equation here is older people with comorbid conditions that make them high risk dying from Corvid-19 vs the young living with PTSD or developmental problems. You need to model how many "PTSD Kids" you're going to end up with, their long-term burden on the health system and compare that to the deaths from Corvid-19, and the after-affects of that.

That's public policy - right now you and your emotional well-being are deemed less valuable than the physical well-being of your grandfather. In the short-term that's a good trade, but the longer you make that call the worse the trade it. Also - you need to ask if Pops wants you to make that trade - in the UK the answer has been an emphatic "no" from the Oxygen and Zimmer-frame brigade.

This may well be a case of "Better Dead than Red" but it's more likely just a more pragmatic and less narcissistic attitude to death accompanied by a recognition that we've all got to go some time and Pops is gonna go first, so he's gonna live life whilst he can.

Meanwhile, his Millennial grandchildren wring their hands over how to cope with his death.

That's not how it works. In order to contract SARS-CoV-2, you have to ingest respiratory fluids from an infected host; either directly from being coughed/sneezed upon (or as a corollary, inhale infected aerosol), or by touching a surface laden with viable virus, and then touching your face. The epidemiologists have more or less determined 3m (or 6ft) is a safe enough distancing to cut your chances of inhaling infected aerosol drastically. Nothing I have read to date says no human contact, period.

"Do not leave your home for any reason, do not have visitors" is the message. Don't shoot the messenger.

It was true for 1918, and it's true now. Quarantine works....but the key is trust. Trust that the people in charge know what they're doing (or in China, trust or else....), which is why we here in the States are in for far more pain than has been endured so far....our leadership sucks.

Spanish Flu ran from 1918 to 1922 - how long do you plan to keep this quarantine going? Bear in mind, you can't quarantine Africa and South America because the Third World can't survive like that - and actually we'd all starve if they tried.

A complete a total lockdown for three months might clear it from the UK, but inevitably a private plane would land at a private airstrip and it would all start over, or refugees would come over in a boat. For Continental Europe or the US? Forget it.

ReluctantSamurai

03-22-2020, 22:55

Papers I have read comparing this to the flu pandemic, noting that cities which lifted restrictions saw flareups - because people brought the disease in. The comparison between 1918 US and the modern world is relevant because it's easier to travel from the US to Australia today than it was from East to west back then.

Corvid-19 kills the old and infirm, children are the least affected, to date no child had died of the disease. So, your public health equation here is older people with comorbid conditions that make them high risk dying from Corvid-19 vs the young living with PTSD or developmental problems.

Comparisons to the 1918 H1N1 outbreak only go so far. Different times, different medical practices, etc. But certain things hold true in both cases---quarantine worked then, and it works now. Break the contagion chains.

We better hope that all the little genetic permutations SARS-CoV-2 is conducting as we speak, doesn't result in something far more deadly as happened in the fall of 1918 with H1N1.

You need to check the facts on the no child has died statement. Though still rare, it has happened. and the recent trend in NYC is showing an alarming trend: (from the link posted earlier by Viking)

Over half of all Covid-19 patients in New York are between 18 and 49, the state says.

More infections, more chances to die.

And this:

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/20/21173472/coronavirus-pandemic-unknowns-questions-seasonality-reinfection-covid-19

“We do know that children tend to have more mild infection, have more mild disease, but we have seen [at least one child] die from this infection,” Maria Van Kerkhove, the Covid-19 technical lead at the World Health Organization, said in a press conference on March 16. “We can’t say universally that it’s mild in children, so it’s important that we protect children as a vulnerable population.”

Right now, the data on Covid-19’s effects on the young are sparse, but recent studies show that even with children, some groups are more vulnerable than others depending on age and health conditions. Some children with Covid-19 can still experience serious lung disease. Kids with simultaneous respiratory infections can be more vulnerable to Covid-19. Infants without mature immune systems can get sick from the virus. Yet compared to adults, Covid-19 appears to be less severe in most kids.

So the risk is very low that children die from SARS-CoV-2, but if they get sick enough, they could die from something else.

Now, first off, gonna point this out - stop swearing - it's not helpful and all it does is antagonise me.

I don't swear often, but I consider your logic concerning letting the elderly die so some unknown number of children don't suffer from PTSD, offensive, and being 67, that antagonizes me. Hence the harsher language.

This may well be a case of "Better Dead than Red" but it's more likely just a more pragmatic and less narcissistic attitude to death accompanied by a recognition that we've all got to go some time and Pops is gonna go first, so he's gonna live life whilst he can.

The kind of talk I'm referring to....

"Do not leave your home for any reason, do not have visitors" is the message. Don't shoot the messenger.

That's only if you have already contracted the virus. Sensible, no?

A complete a total lockdown for three months might clear it from the UK, but inevitably a private plane would land at a private airstrip and it would all start over, or refugees would come over in a boat. For Continental Europe or the US? Forget it.

After a 3 month quarantine, if you require ALL arriving passengers to be tested and sequestered for a period of time, the chance for re-infection is slim to none. If a quicker test becomes available, like the genetic code tracer being tested, sequestering time can be reduced or eliminated.

Viking

03-22-2020, 22:57

to date no child had died of the disease

To be precise, it appears that one 14-year-old boy died in China from the disease. It might be worth mentioning that a 12-year-old girl with "no pre-existing conditions" is currently on a ventilator in the US (source for both (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/22/us/georgia-coronavirus-girl-hospitalized/index.html)), and that an 18-year-old has died of the disease (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/22/coronavirus-claims-britains-youngest-victim-18/) in England.

No idea idea how this disease compares to the flu in terms of severity for those under 18, would be interesting to see; we might not have enough data available yet.

Pannonian

03-22-2020, 23:36

The current panic is not just about shortages - it's about fear of disease and fear of quarantine. Principally it is about being pulled out of your house on a stretcher or in a body bag covered in your own faeces.

And yet you are ok with a much bigger death toll than effective measures would cut it down to.

Having looked around for commentary on the supermarket shortages, which affect 100% of adults, the cited reason isn't what you describe. The reason for shortages is to stock up in case of lockdown, and carrying on from that, to buy while they can find them.

Again, people need to eat. How do you propose to feed the nation? There are shortages in the retailers when the supplies aren't an issue. How do you propose to feed the nation when supplies are an issue? Assurances made last year that warnings were exaggerated and that the nation will find a way through have been proven to be wrong; the supply chain has not been cut, and the situation warned about has already happened. The nation has not found a way through. The problem is there. How do you propose to solve it? Or how do you propose to alleviate it?

NB. these are not rhetorical questions. If I ask a question, I intend to have an answer myself. The question is, what is your answer?

Pannonian

03-22-2020, 23:40

After a 3 month quarantine, if you require ALL arriving passengers to be tested and sequestered for a period of time, the chance for re-infection is slim to none. If a quicker test becomes available, like the genetic code tracer being tested, sequestering time can be reduced or eliminated.

Britain is famously rabies-free. All incoming pets have to be quarantined. The process has proven to be effective.

In China, people are subjected to a series of tests, presumably each of longer duration. They've got the final test down to 4 hours or something similar. The video I posted describes the process.

edyzmedieval

03-23-2020, 00:59

Apparently this crisis has moved into the deep end of politics - using emergency powers and suspending Habeas Corpus.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/doj-suspend-constitutional-rights-coronavirus-970935/

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/21/doj-coronavirus-emergency-powers-140023

Montmorency

03-23-2020, 01:56

The discussion going on here right now is pretty dumb.

1. If we hold out for two months, cases dip during the summer, and spike again in the fall, then already we will have bought ourselves a great deal of time to ramp up necessary production, install necessary testing infrastructure and healthcare capacity, and hold down the overall mortality rate. A million dead spread over a year, even with some spikes, is better than a single tidal wave that contributes to millions of excess deaths.

2. Last I heard, people aged 20-50 are going to be infected at similar rates, and those infections - while less serious overall - still entail tens of millions of younger people hospitalized, killing and harming other younger people with COVID-19 due to overrun, killing and harming other younger people due to all the other health problems and emergencies going unaddressed - to say nothing of the tens of millions of other younger people living with weeks of mild-to-moderate walking pneumonia, sure to be the most hellish experience of their lives, many of them coming out with permanent organ damage.

And also, what the fuck is anyone on about wrt human contact. You can talk 6 feet apart, or video chat. This is the 21st century.

Edit: A point about N95 mask production, there is a bottleneck in production due to the little-known complexity of the design and needed equipment. A machine to produce melt-blown fabric for the mask filters, without which you may as well wear a bandana, costs millions of dollars and takes half a year to manufacture.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-23-2020, 02:56

And yet you are ok with a much bigger death toll than effective measures would cut it down to.

Having looked around for commentary on the supermarket shortages, which affect 100% of adults, the cited reason isn't what you describe. The reason for shortages is to stock up in case of lockdown, and carrying on from that, to buy while they can find them.

Again, people need to eat. How do you propose to feed the nation? There are shortages in the retailers when the supplies aren't an issue. How do you propose to feed the nation when supplies are an issue? Assurances made last year that warnings were exaggerated and that the nation will find a way through have been proven to be wrong; the supply chain has not been cut, and the situation warned about has already happened. The nation has not found a way through. The problem is there. How do you propose to solve it? Or how do you propose to alleviate it?

NB. these are not rhetorical questions. If I ask a question, I intend to have an answer myself. The question is, what is your answer?

Oh will you just stop banging on about Brexit, it's no longer relevant.

My answer is, based on the Italian experience this will sort itself out - in fact to an extent it already is. before I got sick I saw tinned tomatoes in Sainsbury's and lots of bog roll in Waitrose.

Anyway - I already said, a while back, that if this carries on they'll move to rationing. You'll download an app on your smartphone, load it up with credit and use that to pay the supermarket instead of money. The App will track how much bog roll you buy and if you buy it every day you'll get cut off.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-23-2020, 03:09

To be precise, it appears that one 14-year-old boy died in China from the disease. It might be worth mentioning that a 12-year-old girl with "no pre-existing conditions" is currently on a ventilator in the US (source for both (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/22/us/georgia-coronavirus-girl-hospitalized/index.html)), and that an 18-year-old has died of the disease (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/22/coronavirus-claims-britains-youngest-victim-18/) in England.

No idea idea how this disease compares to the flu in terms of severity for those under 18, would be interesting to see; we might not have enough data available yet.

I stand corrected, although two death, one with underlying conditions, out of 200,000 cases is still a very low incidence.

Something to point out is that the US and the UK are both suffering an obesity epidemic and whilst I wouldn't suggest that this alone will kill you irrc the majority of Americans are now overweight, which means they're unfit. That's going to reduce your positive outcomes.

Speaking of positive outcomes, whilst I'm not suffering too badly yet I really need to get some sleep.

Montmorency

03-23-2020, 06:27

If we could just have one justified OK Boomer moment, this is the very essence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bgCCXSrwHA

Pannonian

03-23-2020, 09:11

Oh will you just stop banging on about Brexit, it's no longer relevant.

My answer is, based on the Italian experience this will sort itself out - in fact to an extent it already is. before I got sick I saw tinned tomatoes in Sainsbury's and lots of bog roll in Waitrose.

Anyway - I already said, a while back, that if this carries on they'll move to rationing. You'll download an app on your smartphone, load it up with credit and use that to pay the supermarket instead of money. The App will track how much bog roll you buy and if you buy it every day you'll get cut off.

1. To what extent? From the comments I've seen so far, it's not sorting itself out. Toilet roll and sanitiser are notoriously missing from the shelves. So is pasta, and other basics. From my own experience, something is present on the shelves, but what it is varies from day to day. The above listed is never present though.
2. How long do you want rationing to go on for?
3. Does everyone operate via phone apps? What happens to those who don't work that way?

Our supply chains are currently intact and we are already seeing empty shelves, contrary to assurances that we will find a way through. And you still want to add breaking the supply chain on top of that.

Oh, and this isn't about Brexit. This is about supplies. This is about feeding the nation.

CrossLOPER

03-23-2020, 10:34

I have to perfectly honest, and I am sorry if this is derailing the conversation or appearing insensitive, but I am shocked that being alone bothers people so much. I never understood the fear, really. I am not talking about vulnerable people like the old and those with mental issues, since those people have special needs. I spent quite a bit of time alone when I was younger and I continue to be more alone than the average person. I can't say I am a purely solitary person, but I can find plenty to do that doesn't involve other people. Books, games, drawing, taking a walk in the city cemetery, working in my workshop, working on my project car....

If the goal is purely isolation and not necessarily avoiding social contact, you can add old-school forums like this one to the mix. I also think that solitary contemplation is extremely important for maintaining a healthy state of mind. I can't imagine being overloaded with an endless mess of worries and not taking the time to process things.

Also, this isn't against those who must face isolation for over a month, or those with money concerns.

ReluctantSamurai

03-23-2020, 12:47

I have been at odds with several others here concerning the right of governments to limit their citizens civil liberties in order to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. I support the need for containment methods even as far as a short-term lock-down, in order to break the chains of contagion.

During the course of these conversations I have been asked where my limit was; just how far was too far. Well, some of these methods are going too far:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/when-disease-comes-leaders-grab-more-power/608560/

On Friday, the Hungarian government sent a bill to Parliament that will give dictatorial powers to the prime minister, Viktor Orbán, in the name of the “emergency.” For an indefinite period of time, he will be able to ignore whichever laws he wishes, without consulting legislators; elections and referenda are to be suspended. Breaking of quarantine will become a crime, punishable by a prison sentence. The spread of false information or other information that causes “disturbance” or “unrest” will also be a crime, also punishable by a prison sentence. It is unclear who will define false: The language is vague enough that it could include almost any criticism of the government’s public-health policy.

A similarly abrupt transition is taking place in Israel, where Benjamin Netanyahu—still prime minister despite having lost a recent election—has enacted an emergency decree that allows him to postpone the start of his own criminal trial and that prevents the newly elected Israeli Parliament, in which the opposition has a majority, from convening. He has also given himself huge new powers of surveillance without any oversight. Institutions and tactics normally used to track terrorists will now be used to monitor quarantine compliance, follow average citizens’ activity and movement, and keep track of their temperatures and health status.

The Department of Justice [here in the US], Politico has reported, has already asked Congress for powers to detain Americans without trial, even though such powers are not remotely necessary. Those lawmakers who resist these and similar measures to come should prepare to be accused of endangering their constituents’ lives.

Too far. Fortunately for Americans, such a request to suspend "habeus corpus" will never make its' way past Congress, but in other countries with more authoritarian governments, such new sweeping requests are likely to see little resistance.

So for me, this is too far.

rory_20_uk

03-23-2020, 13:57

Fortunately for Americans, such a request to suspend "habeus corpus" will never make its' way past Congress, but in other countries with more authoritarian governments, such new sweeping requests are likely to see little resistance.

So for me, this is too far.

The War On Terror has shredded habeus corpus for years. And just as the USA hasn't declared war but just happens to end up in wars, they'll just use different terminology to achieve the same thing.

~:smoking:

ReluctantSamurai

03-23-2020, 15:01

The War On Terror has shredded habeus corpus for years

Point taken. Trump is certainly the type of leader that will try to take advantage of any opportunity to accumulate more power. 9/11 was more like Pearl Harbor; an attack on US soil that had the effect (more temporary for 9/11) of creating a unified effort.

Don't know if that kind of sentiment is present on this occasion. Won't stop them from trying.....

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-23-2020, 15:02

1. To what extent? From the comments I've seen so far, it's not sorting itself out. Toilet roll and sanitiser are notoriously missing from the shelves. So is pasta, and other basics. From my own experience, something is present on the shelves, but what it is varies from day to day. The above listed is never present though.
2. How long do you want rationing to go on for?
3. Does everyone operate via phone apps? What happens to those who don't work that way?

Our supply chains are currently intact and we are already seeing empty shelves, contrary to assurances that we will find a way through. And you still want to add breaking the supply chain on top of that.

Oh, and this isn't about Brexit. This is about supplies. This is about feeding the nation.

For you this still seems to be about Brexit. The Loo roll situation is already getting sorted, and you can still find soap, although it's in short supply. potatoes and greens are becoming a bit difficult at Supermarkets but local grocers are still stocked. Pasta and hand sanitiser are the only things really out of supply.

You wanted a solution, I offered you one, the alternative is paper ration books - which might also happen. Bearing in mind the elderly aren't allowed to leave their houses their inability to work their smartphones might be a moot point. Supermarkets are being re-stocked every day, it's only the continued panic which is emptying shelves. The panic is, fundamentally, about a fear of disease, fear of quarantine, and not a fear of shortages. This is completely different to Brexit.

I have to perfectly honest, and I am sorry if this is derailing the conversation or appearing insensitive, but I am shocked that being alone bothers people so much. I never understood the fear, really. I am not talking about vulnerable people like the old and those with mental issues, since those people have special needs. I spent quite a bit of time alone when I was younger and I continue to be more alone than the average person. I can't say I am a purely solitary person, but I can find plenty to do that doesn't involve other people. Books, games, drawing, taking a walk in the city cemetery, working in my workshop, working on my project car....

If the goal is purely isolation and not necessarily avoiding social contact, you can add old-school forums like this one to the mix. I also think that solitary contemplation is extremely important for maintaining a healthy state of mind. I can't imagine being overloaded with an endless mess of worries and not taking the time to process things.

Also, this isn't against those who must face isolation for over a month, or those with money concerns.

Different people are affected by isolation differently, for you this may be no issue, for me it's a bit problem - I haven't seen any of my family or my dear friends in three weeks when normally I would expect to see most of them every week. You also have to consider that many people live alone, or in house-shares like me, and are not with their families. If you are parents locked up with your children in your house with a garden it's completely different to if you are a single person living on your own in a block of flats.

How this affects you, your circumstances, your personal psychology, will dictate how you see the measures being taken.

I have been at odds with several others here concerning the right of governments to limit their citizens civil liberties in order to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. I support the need for containment methods even as far as a short-term lock-down, in order to break the chains of contagion.

During the course of these conversations I have been asked where my limit was; just how far was too far. Well, some of these methods are going too far:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/when-disease-comes-leaders-grab-more-power/608560/

Too far. Fortunately for Americans, such a request to suspend "habeus corpus" will never make its' way past Congress, but in other countries with more authoritarian governments, such new sweeping requests are likely to see little resistance.

So for me, this is too far.

I already referenced Israel, didn't I?

In France you can be arrested for leaving your house without a write from the gendarmes - this is for two weeks right now, but that will probably be extended.

Also, watch Poland.

ReluctantSamurai

03-23-2020, 15:32

I already referenced Israel, didn't I?

In France you can be arrested for leaving your house without a write from the gendarmes - this is for two weeks right now, but that will probably be extended.

Also, watch Poland.

And.....?

Viking

03-23-2020, 17:40

I have to perfectly honest, and I am sorry if this is derailing the conversation or appearing insensitive, but I am shocked that being alone bothers people so much.

In personality theory, there is a facet of extraversion/introversion called sociability.

Those who score high on that trait prefer to be around other people either all or most of the time (depending how high their score is), and the more people they are around at the same time, the better.

For those who score low, it's the opposite: they prefer to be on their own most or all of the time, and they prefer smaller groups to larger ones.

Most people score somewhere in between and are fine with both spending a lot of time on their own and a lot of time socializing.

Bottom line: people have very different personalities.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-23-2020, 18:00

And.....?

And Collectivism is undermining Liberal Democracy. The Lefties will try to consign this to "a few bad apples" but it's just the thin end of the wedge. The longer this goes on the more desperate people and politicians become and the more of our democratic principles will be sacrificed for what are, ultimately, only a small fraction of our population.

Predictably, those who warn against this are demonised for "sacrificing" the casualties of an epidemic, as though they were wielding the scythe rather than nature herself.

ReluctantSamurai

03-23-2020, 18:27

The longer this goes on the more desperate people and politicians become and the more of our democratic principles will be sacrificed for what are, ultimately, only a small fraction of our population

There are three choices, as I see it:

1. Do nothing. Let the firestorm rage across the planet until it burns itself out (likely millions die); pay or coerce healthy survivors to become "blood bags" for the rest of society (Mad Max, anyone?)

2. Temporary (length will vary) suspension of any kind of gathering that puts more than 5-10 people in close proximity; only essential services open like grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations, etc. (tens of thousands die)

3. Martial law. Nobody goes anywhere without law enforcement approval; spot checks required for infection, no travel what-so-ever in or out of metropolitan areas. (likely deaths can be limited to 4 figures).

Take your pick and deal with it. I'm absolutely tired of hearing about this "small fraction" of our society, or it's mainly the old, blah, blah, blah. Do your homework and decide for yourself what's the best course of action. For me, history has shown that quarantines work. They've worked in the past, sometimes with dramatic results (as in the Tale of Two Cities links I posted earlier), and they work now, as evidenced by the results achieved in China.

My state here in the US is going on a 3-week lock-down effective midnite tonight. We've cases sky-rocket in the last 5 days (as predicted by current epidemiological maps); some of that is due to a large increase in the amount of testing, and and unknown amount of that increase can be attributed to the ho-hum attitude displayed by some segments of our populace in disregarding social-distancing. Now it's law for the next 3 weeks...keep your ass at home unless you need supplies (which I've already been doing the last two weeks).

No Mas about this crap from me.~:smoking:

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-23-2020, 18:45

There are three choices, as I see it:

1. Do nothing. Let the firestorm rage across the planet until it burns itself out (likely millions die); pay or coerce healthy survivors to become "blood bags" for the rest of society (Mad Max, anyone?)

2. Temporary (length will vary) suspension of any kind of gathering that puts more than 5-10 people in close proximity; only essential services open like grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations, etc. (tens of thousands die)

3. Martial law. Nobody goes anywhere without law enforcement approval; spot checks required for infection, no travel what-so-ever in or out of metropolitan areas. (likely deaths can be limited to 4 figures).

Take your pick and deal with it. I'm absolutely tired of hearing about this "small fraction" of our society, or it's mainly the old, blah, blah, blah. Do your homework and decide for yourself what's the best course of action. For me, history has shown that quarantines work. They've worked in the past, sometimes with dramatic results (as in the Tale of Two Cities links I posted earlier), and they work now, as evidenced by the results achieved in China.

My state here in the US is going on a 3-week lock-down effective midnite tonight. We've cases sky-rocket in the last 5 days (as predicted by current epidemiological maps); some of that is due to a large increase in the amount of testing, and and unknown amount of that increase can be attributed to the ho-hum attitude displayed by some segments of our populace in disregarding social-distancing. Now it's law for the next 3 weeks...keep your ass at home unless you need supplies (which I've already been doing the last two weeks).

No Mas about this crap from me.~:smoking:

It's nowhere near that simple. Run the actual numbers, in the UK the death toll from "do nothing" is reckoned at 500,000 out of 66.44 million over 12 months. Roughly 1500 people die a day in the UK, so we're looking at an 80% increase over 12 months, although the peak will be much worse than that. The real danger here is not the Coronavirus, it's the stress on the healthcare system where everybody who doesn't have coronavirus getting pushed out

These big, round, neat numbers are of course really only vague guesses.

Pannonian

03-23-2020, 19:14

And Collectivism is undermining Liberal Democracy. The Lefties will try to consign this to "a few bad apples" but it's just the thin end of the wedge. The longer this goes on the more desperate people and politicians become and the more of our democratic principles will be sacrificed for what are, ultimately, only a small fraction of our population.

Predictably, those who warn against this are demonised for "sacrificing" the casualties of an epidemic, as though they were wielding the scythe rather than nature herself.

Weren't you advocating rationing earlier? That measure has never been taken outside war, except for the period following WWII when much of the world was in ruins. If you hate collectivism so much, why are you advocating the most collectivist of all measures? Surely you'd want to look at non-collectivist ways of mitigating shortages. Such as removing barriers to trade.

Pannonian

03-23-2020, 19:19

For you this still seems to be about Brexit. The Loo roll situation is already getting sorted, and you can still find soap, although it's in short supply. potatoes and greens are becoming a bit difficult at Supermarkets but local grocers are still stocked. Pasta and hand sanitiser are the only things really out of supply.

You wanted a solution, I offered you one, the alternative is paper ration books - which might also happen. Bearing in mind the elderly aren't allowed to leave their houses their inability to work their smartphones might be a moot point. Supermarkets are being re-stocked every day, it's only the continued panic which is emptying shelves. The panic is, fundamentally, about a fear of disease, fear of quarantine, and not a fear of shortages. This is completely different to Brexit.

My point which you seem to consistently duck under is that we're experiencing shortages at the user end despite there being no shortages at the supplier end. Once we experience shortages at the supplier end (we are due to reduce imports from the EU by 95% at the end of the year), how is this going to improve? We've seen that the users will not sort things out themselves.

BTW, if someone has multiple phones and thus multiple IDs, what's to stop them from using your app multiple times to get around rationing? Are you relying on people to play fair, despite abundant evidence that people have not been playing fair?

Csargo

03-23-2020, 20:15

https://japantoday.com/category/national/Warnings-fail-to-stop-Japanese-crowds-from-viewing-cherry-blossoms

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=KxtGJsnLgSc&feature=emb_logo

https://globalnews.ca/news/6716919/trudeau-canada-update-coronavirus-march-23/

https://twitter.com/JoshRosenthalTV/status/1241112503075180545

https://media.giphy.com/media/wPQJeg7FCW2s/giphy.gif

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-23-2020, 20:20

Weren't you advocating rationing earlier? That measure has never been taken outside war, except for the period following WWII when much of the world was in ruins. If you hate collectivism so much, why are you advocating the most collectivist of all measures? Surely you'd want to look at non-collectivist ways of mitigating shortages. Such as removing barriers to trade.

No, I was advocating calm but predicting rationing.

My point which you seem to consistently duck under is that we're experiencing shortages at the user end despite there being no shortages at the supplier end. Once we experience shortages at the supplier end (we are due to reduce imports from the EU by 95% at the end of the year), how is this going to improve? We've seen that the users will not sort things out themselves.

BTW, if someone has multiple phones and thus multiple IDs, what's to stop them from using your app multiple times to get around rationing? Are you relying on people to play fair, despite abundant evidence that people have not been playing fair?

You are still making this about Bexit, Hungary just become a tyrannical dictatorship - stop talking about Brexit. It's not important.

CrossLOPER

03-23-2020, 23:22

You are still making this about Bexit, Hungary just become a tyrannical dictatorship - stop talking about Brexit. It's not important.
It's not about Brexit similarly to how The 1918 flu wasn't about WWI.

edyzmedieval

03-23-2020, 23:23

I just want to make a little announcement from our side - please, stay safe, stay in your house, comment on the Org all you like (you're all welcome here 24/7) but just stay safe and be protected!

The Org is here, we're more than happy to host you while you pass the idle time in quarantine / isolation but above all, stay safe you and your families!

:bow:

Pannonian

03-23-2020, 23:35

No, I was advocating calm but predicting rationing.

You are still making this about Bexit, Hungary just become a tyrannical dictatorship - stop talking about Brexit. It's not important.

A large part of our diet is imported, with food imports coming mainly from the EU. Our truck drivers currently make 30,000 journeys per year to and from EU countries. After we leave, on current conditions, this will be cut to 1,500. A reduction of 95%. How is this not important?

In the current event, even with the 30,000 journeys to and from the EU, our supermarket shelves empty at the first anticipation of shortages. How is this going to get better when there are actual shortages in supply?

Hooahguy

03-24-2020, 00:27

Watching the movie Contagion today was a bad idea. Good film though.

Montmorency

03-24-2020, 01:16

GOOD NEWS: New York has ramped up its testing capacity from 1,000 people a day 10 days ago to 16,000 a day. (78,000 cumulative tests)

Monkey Paw: That makes us the COVID-19 epicenter of the United States. Over half of the confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases have been discovered in New York. As of Monday, cases in the state account for 58 percent of cases nationwide, and including 33 percent of the U.S. deaths from the disease.

"Predictably, those who warn against this are demonised for "sacrificing" the casualties of an epidemic, as though they were wielding the scythe rather than nature herself."

I have to highlight this because it is such a profound typifying statement of conservative philosophy.

Disease, poverty, hierarchy - to a conservative all of these are merely natural, immutable characteristics of life. Liberals and leftists understand them as properly political and policy outcomes.

I have been at odds with several others here concerning the right of governments to limit their citizens civil liberties in order to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. I support the need for containment methods even as far as a short-term lock-down, in order to break the chains of contagion.

During the course of these conversations I have been asked where my limit was; just how far was too far. Well, some of these methods are going too far:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/when-disease-comes-leaders-grab-more-power/608560/

Too far. Fortunately for Americans, such a request to suspend "habeus corpus" will never make its' way past Congress, but in other countries with more authoritarian governments, such new sweeping requests are likely to see little resistance.

So for me, this is too far.

We've heard this story before.

I did happen to just read this fairly relevant piece about how life in authoritarian countries is largely similar to life in liberal democracies - people just have different expectations about legitimate political behavior.
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/9/14207302/authoritarian-states-boring-tolerable-fascism-trump

Now, China is already authoritarian, so they don't need the help. Reportedly they are beginning to loosen restrictions once again, and all the most recent new cases have been arrivals into the country.

Let's see how successful they are in guarding against reinfection through normal commerce.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-24-2020, 01:38

It's not about Brexit similarly to how The 1918 flu wasn't about WWI.

Well, no, because the Spanish Flue was a direct consequence of the upheaval of WW1 - as much as Pannonian might like to claim otherwise Brexit has not caused Corvid-19.

UK in virtual lockdown: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52012432

For at least three weeks but I'm betting at least three month and I'm expecting six months to a year.

Possibly not as stringent right now but it's telling the Government wanted this Bill on a two-year renewal, not six months, initially.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-24-2020, 01:40

A large part of our diet is imported, with food imports coming mainly from the EU. Our truck drivers currently make 30,000 journeys per year to and from EU countries. After we leave, on current conditions, this will be cut to 1,500. A reduction of 95%. How is this not important?

In the current event, even with the 30,000 journeys to and from the EU, our supermarket shelves empty at the first anticipation of shortages. How is this going to get better when there are actual shortages in supply?

Do you remember what Bush's plans for the DoD were before 9/11?

No, nobody does - same thing.

Now move on because we might all be dead in six months and this discussion is pointless.

Montmorency

03-24-2020, 02:46

https://i.imgur.com/jm83yrU.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/CVPYfue.jpg

Re: recent Trump news, and maybe relevant to the local Org discourse:

https://i.imgur.com/tOH9C1v.jpg

Montmorency

03-24-2020, 04:05

A certain member is straight Fox-Newsified at this point.

https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1242245135129346050

Conservatives, pre-coronavirus: "Stalin and Mao were monsters for letting people die in order to advance their economic agendas."

Conservatives, now: "A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic."

Csargo

03-24-2020, 04:32

I mean, the economy is going to be in dire straits either way. This guy just makes me shake my head honestly. It's too late to go back on what they've already decided, then you just exacerbate the situation. Texas decided to sit in the middle of doing something or doing nothing, luckily some of the larger counties are locking down, which is promising albeit later than ideal. Our entire government seems like a train wreck.

Pannonian

03-24-2020, 05:02

Do you remember what Bush's plans for the DoD were before 9/11?

No, nobody does - same thing.

Now move on because we might all be dead in six months and this discussion is pointless.

At worst 1% of us may be dead in 6 months, which is acceptable to some.

You've been complaining about lack of human contact, which you deem to be unacceptably damaging to our society according to your imaginations of domestic beatings and suicides. But food supply isn't so important that you want it looked at, despite there being daily evidence that we do not cope.

Pannonian

03-24-2020, 05:05

Well, no, because the Spanish Flue was a direct consequence of the upheaval of WW1 - as much as Pannonian might like to claim otherwise Brexit has not caused Corvid-19.

UK in virtual lockdown: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52012432

For at least three weeks but I'm betting at least three month and I'm expecting six months to a year.

Possibly not as stringent right now but it's telling the Government wanted this Bill on a two-year renewal, not six months, initially.

I never claimed it, so don't admire that strawman too much. I'm talking about food supply, which this crisis has shown to be an issue even when the supply chain is intact. Common sense would suggest that, if you can't cope when the supply chain is working, you're going to cope even worse when it is broken.

Gilrandir

03-24-2020, 05:17

Watching the movie Contagion today was a bad idea. Good film though.

Better watch something by Quentin Quarantino.

Furunculus

03-24-2020, 09:12

Hunters has a good Tarantino vibe.

But I am tempted to buy Contagion for the funsies...

Viking

03-24-2020, 19:14

Seamus Fermanagh

03-24-2020, 20:14

On the other hand, making sweeping negative statements about other groups is probably something most people can get behind.

Given the 7 or so millennia of human history that supports your statement, it is practically a cliche.

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-24-2020, 20:30

[Removed]

a completely inoffensive name

03-24-2020, 22:12

-

This is abusive language and is not healthy. I urge you to reach out for real counseling with a licensed therapist which is still possible over the internet or phone during these times.

CrossLOPER

03-24-2020, 22:36

Well, no, because the Spanish Flue was a direct consequence of the upheaval of WW1 - as much as Pannonian might like to claim otherwise Brexit has not caused Corvid-19.
You are being intentionally dense.

WWI was a factor in the spread, but isn't directly related to the disease or the condition of preparedness of the world for an outbreak. Brexit makes it more difficult to restrain/ease the current outbreak because new supply lines have not been established.

-
Do you need to see a therapist every week, or are you just upset you can't meet with people for a while? If it is the latter, you need to really calm down. You can skype or discord or whatever. Actually, you can skype or discord with a therapist, so I don't really see the issue, unless your therapist really wants an excuse for a vacation right now. If that is the case, your therapist kind of sucks and hates making money.

edyzmedieval

03-25-2020, 00:45

A small announcement from the moderation team - we are very aware of the comments made earlier. As per the rules of the Org and obviously our gentleman's agreement with every single patron, the well-being of EVERY Org patron is the utmost importance for us.

This is not something we take lightly. And we are looking carefully at every single post especially in delicate topics, like this one.

Montmorency

03-25-2020, 02:48

There are those who feel particularly distressed or depressed at living with the conditions imposed by the pandemic response. To the extent they were satisfied with their pre-crisis lives, they can hold to that feeling as a lodestar. And definitely don't personalize global politics, both because it is unlikely a narrow perspective will offer insight or sound guidance, and because it will just feel like the whole world is conspiring against you and that's a scary and awful feeling.

Some great COVID-19 resources I've come across.

NYT Graph of Coronavirus Deaths over Time by US State and Country - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

Crude Polemical Three-Month US Fatality Projections According to Degree of Response - https://covidactnow.org/
For example:

23445

23446

Finally, finally, I found a database tracking all US COVID-19 testing! https://covidtracking.com/data/

Still amazing that we haven't caught up with South Korea, and that New York continues to maintain 25%+ of cumulative testing.
[Correction: South Korea has slowed testing dramatically in the last couple weeks, so with ~360K tests conducted the US has exceeded SK's current count (https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030)of ~350K]

I mean, the economy is going to be in dire straits either way. This guy just makes me shake my head honestly. It's too late to go back on what they've already decided, then you just exacerbate the situation. Texas decided to sit in the middle of doing something or doing nothing, luckily some of the larger counties are locking down, which is promising albeit later than ideal. Our entire government seems like a train wreck.

It goes well beyond the abstract moral and empirical qualities of his position.

This is a wealthy and politically powerful man, almost literally telling us "Some of you may die, but that is a sacrifice I am willing to make." It's the profligate general commending the valorous sacrifices of the army man on behalf of the nation while sending his army forward after a nugatory objective. His risk compared to the rest of his age cohort is small, and he is certainly not speaking for himself in any meaningful way when advancing putative tradeoffs between the wellbeing of elderly populations and the continence of the economy.

(Regarding which, see yet again (https://twitter.com/KenTremendous/status/1242245809262833664):)

The choice is not

a) everyone stays home, economy hurt
or
b) everyone goes out again, economy fine

it's

a) everyone stays home, economy hurt
or
b) everyone goes out again, millions die, hospitals collapse, social chaos, economy hurt just as bad if not worse

It's not the men who have the political connections, the money, the priority of healthcare, the advantage and opportunity for having achieved higher baseline health who would be worst affected as part of the equation on the weighing of competing interests. It's the poor, the black, the Latino, the rural...

We should not begin to pretend that these rascals should even potentially be humored until they have displayed documentation refusing all but palliative medical treatment in the event of illness.

Montmorency

03-25-2020, 06:06

ATTENTION AMERICANS

Here is a resource that collects reports on grocery store crowding, availability of product, senior hours, etc.
https://survey123.arcgis.com/share/eb8101e3cde44e4782693460cb26097a?fbclid=IwAR1bOb2QmhcyKtxSIfB4WJYF3xT-3mRRtQYMKl3dyjS1BiIkR1oiZ0_kK2k
https://htorpey.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR39P4ryIkTwyGs3vVxMa-HWVb71R9hoqx1V1VqEiyXdAi1Gi0al1r-x_CY#/1544144ccd6e4d4a8db71a8c74cc18b1

Unfortunately, it's not currently helpful because there's almost no user base. But in general, crisis or not, tools like this hopefully become the SOP of the cybernetic future.

The new party line: https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a31910755/coronavirus-republicans-sacrifice-old-people-stocks/

11. In such a perspective everybody is educated to become a hero. In every mythology the hero is an exceptional being, but in Ur-Fascist ideology, heroism is the norm. This cult of heroism is strictly linked with the cult of death. It is not by chance that a motto of the Falangists was Viva la Muerte (in English it should be translated as “Long Live Death!”). In non-fascist societies, the lay public is told that death is unpleasant but must be faced with dignity; believers are told that it is the painful way to reach a supernatural happiness. By contrast, the Ur-Fascist hero craves heroic death, advertised as the best reward for a heroic life. The Ur-Fascist hero is impatient to die. In his impatience, he more frequently sends other people to death.

Good satire: I regret that I have but one grandparent to give for my country (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/24/i-regret-that-i-have-one-grandparent-give-my-country/)

“No one reached out to me and said, as a senior citizen, ‘Are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’ And if that’s the exchange, I’m all in. … I just think there’s lots of grandparents out there in this country like me.”

— Dan Patrick, lieutenant governor of Texas

“We have to go back to work much sooner than people thought.”

— President Trump, who wants the country “up and raring to go by Easter”

YOUR COUNTRY STOCK MARKET NEEDS YOU! IS ASKING YOU TO GIVE YOURSELF, NEEDLESSLY AND TO NO ULTIMATE LONG-TERM BENEFIT!

Brave boomers, hardy millennials, Gen X, Gen Z, rise to the call! Will you make the ultimate sacrifice so that Donald Trump’s chain hotels will not have to remain closed for more than 14 days? Will you lay down your precious life, against expert medical advice, for literally no reason at all?

No death is too unnecessary, no gain too small.

Ask yourself whether your so-called reason for not volunteering your life in the hope that Donald Trump’s branded properties will not lose another day’s income is not instead a selfish excuse! Is your not getting to share the world with your grandchildren so great a prize that Donald Trump should be forced to be marginally worse off for a brief time? Think of all the money he has given up already to be president, which, he assured us, is LOTS — even when you remember what he gained back through emoluments!

Full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic

Dare you not requite his sacrifice with all you have to give? This is rude and selfish of you, to say that your life is worth more than someone’s money. And I am not speaking of the money of people who need to go to work to feed their families, who are being devastated by this, who might be helped with a spreading of the social safety net. I am speaking of something greater. I am speaking of the stocks!
AD

We have the ability to support the individuals and businesses who would suffer from a shutdown of the length medically necessary to stem the virus, but why bother? When instead we can toss aside precious, irreplaceable human beings? Now is not the time for sensible measures. Think about what a good idea World War I was! Think of the stirring music and the posters! Is now any less the time for a senseless, massive loss of human life that will ultimately devastate the country far more than a failure to return to work for the months required? We cannot put a price on what will be lost — so how much could it possibly be worth?

Doctors, why do you hesitate to fling in your lot? Is the single mask you have been issued not sufficient? Do you not know that there is MONEY somewhere, dwindling? I would suggest that you plaster dollar bills to your face, but they are all needed to bolster the Businessmen in this difficult time. Yes, you have a family, but is the family LEGAL TENDER? Then why do you fear that you might never see it again?

What joy are people? What is so precious in being alive, a human being with the ability to experience this maddening and brilliant world, when you know that somewhere, the Dow is going down instead of up? The chance to make it go up instead of down — even for a flicker of a moment — is that not worth everything? What makes life worth living? I am pretty sure it is not “possessing any connection whatsoever to other human beings”; or else the president has been doing it very wrong.

Here is your chance to serve! And there is still a place in the line for the people who did not ask to be volunteered — but you must help them! You can sacrifice them, too, by your decision, because this disease conveniently does not understand who is stepping up and who is not.

Just as we do not make any attempt to regulate traffic so that people do not perish needlessly in car accidents, just as when buildings are aflame we do not keep people from congregating inside them, so, too, must we now rush back to normalcy, at an unthinkable cost, to no purpose whatsoever.

We’ll have the country open by Easter! Think what more glorious fate there could possibly be than to die for nothing at all!

ReluctantSamurai

03-25-2020, 12:27

A day in the life of a hero:

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/24/21192947/doctors-treating-coronavirus-twitter-thread

Montmorency

03-25-2020, 16:08

Aesop wrote it first: Trump quietly seeks allies' coronavirus help even as he insists 'a lot is being done' (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/politics/trump-seeks-allies-coronavirus-help/index.html)

The US has reached out to South Korea and other nations for help in getting enough supplies to fight the coronavirus pandemic in a sharp counterpoint to President Donald Trump's narrative that the domestic response is enough to combat the crisis.

Seoul's Blue House issued a statement describing a Tuesday call between Trump and President Moon Jae-In that focused on the outbreak. Trump used the conversation to ask Moon if South Korea could provide medical equipment to the United States, the Blue House said. A White House readout of the same call made no mention of Trump's appeal.
The White House request to South Korea appears to be just one of several it has made to allies and other countries for equipment to fight the novel coronavirus. Foreign Policy magazine reported that the State Department sent US ambassadors in eastern Europe and Eurasia to ask their hosts to "ramp up exports and production of life-saving medical equipment and protective gear for the United States."
[...]
The Pentagon has expressed its thanks to South Korea for supplying coronavirus tests for US military use until American testing equipment arrived on the peninsula. On Tuesday, the Blue House said that South Korea was once again happy to come to Washington's aid.
According to the Blue House, Moon responded to Trump's request for equipment by saying, "If there's spare in the country, (we) will support as much as possible," and telling Trump that FDA approval might be needed for the medical equipment. According to the statement, Trump said he would take action so any South Korean exports could be approved immediately.

Wow. This clip of Trump at his presser should probably be training material for resident psychiatrists.
https://twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1242231879488716800

And while raving about the beautiful vision of packed churches on Easter Day, he said the quiet part (https://www.npr.org/2020/03/24/820774378/trump-id-love-for-u-s-to-be-opened-up-by-easter-amidst-pandemic-response) yet again.

"They had things in there that were terrible — windmills all over the place ... windmills that kill the birds and ruin the real estate, right?" Trump said.

Washington must focus on "the workers," the president said. "Workers first."

Trump said in his second interview on Fox that he wasn't concerned about the costs associated with what could be a $2 trillion stimulus package, because he considered that to be an investment.

"It's not really spending, because a lot of it is helping companies" through loans, he said. "It's loaded to save corporations," he said, specifically mentioning Boeing.

Always remember, this is what they believe. For a parallel example, look at what Baba Yaga (https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1242484117373100037) has to say about coronavirus (hint: take a close look at her cite).

More (https://twitter.com/AnthonyAdragna/status/1242522005607505926) on the Republican party line, literally lol:

https://i.imgur.com/QyxNrcf.png
https://i.imgur.com/zujqqM5.png
https://i.imgur.com/ja6YHti.png
https://i.imgur.com/sUFsiGJ.png

No conscience. But a bill appears set to pass today.

A study challenging the approach taken by the Imperial College. Author suggests the global pandemic may be at a more advanced stage than is typically thought, with the current testing regime everywhere massively underreporting the true scope of contagion. If anything, these controversies are a reminder of how fast this has hit us and how little we know for certain. No antibody test for prior infection has yet been developed to my knowledge, for example.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html

ReluctantSamurai

03-25-2020, 17:27

Gotta love this tweet:

Inability to smell and/or taste is a symptom of Covid-19. Inability to read a simple chart is a symptom of being Ann Coulter.

Almost fell out of my chair laughing~D

No conscience

No ability to think for themselves and post something original, either:clown:

ReluctantSamurai

03-25-2020, 21:14

With the United States now claiming the third highest number of SARS-CoV-2 cases identified, the situation is pretty much like a "bullet train" heading across the nation. This woman's situation is being repeated over and over again:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52019509

Frustrated and even more ill, Dr Bahorik calls the Department of Health. Despite exhibiting symptoms, and given her age and previous spells of pneumonia, they were inflexible. On protesting, a nurse suggests she speak to her congressman. She calls the office of Senator Bob Casey, where she is advised to contact the Department of Health.

After several terrible days of sickness, Dr Bahorik hears of eight coronavirus testing sites in the neighbouring county of Lehigh Valley. It is an hour's drive and she is feeling weak but goes to the test centre in Macungie, Pennsylvania. Once again she is told that because she had not travelled to a high risk country or been in known contact with someone with coronavirus, she cannot have a test. Having once been a doctor in the US Army Reserve, Dr Bahorik contacts her Veterans Affairs hospital. They later tell her that they do not have Covid-19 testing kits. By this stage, Dr Bahorik's chest pain and coughing has worsened.

"They keep reporting that there are so few cases in my county, but they are not testing," Dr Bahorik tells me. "I feel like I've done as much as I can, but that the system has beaten me down," she says. "I almost feel like I'm a lone voice screaming, 'Open your eyes, we have to do something about this!'"

And yet, our Fearless Leader gets on the TV saying how "beautiful" it would be to see churches full for Easter Sunday.

Yep. Fear porn. Whelp....if churches fill for Easter Sunday in two and a half weeks......be very afraid if you live in the US.:shame:

Csargo

03-25-2020, 22:43

ReluctantSamurai

03-26-2020, 00:51

Testing based on coming into contact with someone who's been tested positive is stupid, considering everything we know there's probably tens of thousands of people infected without even knowing if not more than that.

That is likely true for Pennsylvania, but not for areas with low rates of infection. Wasn't the point I was trying to make, which was, after just about everything else was eliminated, and the doctor was getting sicker and sicker, ya think someone would say it was time to make absolutely sure it was a COVID-19 case? And that the VA, which is filled with elderly vets, has not a single test kit??

Csargo

03-26-2020, 01:23

That is likely true for Pennsylvania, but not for areas with low rates of infection. Wasn't the point I was trying to make, which was, after just about everything else was eliminated, and the doctor was getting sicker and sicker, ya think someone would say it was time to make absolutely sure it was a COVID-19 case? And that the VA, which is filled with elderly vets, has not a single test kit??

I mean, I agree I'm not sure what's going on. The VA is testing (https://www.publichealth.va.gov/n-coronavirus/?utm_source=VA%20Alert&utm_medium=Banner&utm_campaign=Coronavirus&utm_content=link%20to%20VA%20Public%20Health%20page):

VA has administered over 3,378 COVID-19 tests nationwide while taking aggressive steps to prevent COVID-19 transmission.

So I don't know...

Montmorency

03-26-2020, 01:26

Boeing (https://thehill.com/policy/finance/489255-boeing-ceo-says-company-may-reject-stimulus-if-treasury-seeks-equity-stake) is begging for a bailout as an officially Too Big To Fail firm. But:

Boeing chief executive David Calhoun on Tuesday suggested that the aircraft manufacturer would not accept federal aid as part of a pending economic rescue bill if it meant giving the Treasury Department a stake in the company.

Calhoun said in an interview with Fox Business Network that it’s “not ideal” for Boeing to surrender equity to the federal government and “if they force it, we just look at all the other options, and we’ve got plenty of them.”

Hahahahaha

Whom do you trust for #coronavirus info:

Dems:

CDC 87%
Your governor 75%
National media 72%
Friends/family 72%
Religious leaders 44%
Trump 14%

Republicans:

Trump 90%
CDC 84%
Friends/family 81%
Religious leaders 71%
You governor 65%
National media 13%

-CBS/YouGov

aaaaaaaaauuugh

EDIT: Added image
https://i.imgur.com/waoGWKl.jpg

BTW the new contrarian Oxford study I referenced above may have been misrepresented in reporting. But we'll resolve these questions in a month or two anyway.
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242611599405277184

Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

03-26-2020, 01:38

Hooahguy

03-26-2020, 03:22

Trump team failed to follow NSC’s pandemic playbook (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285)

Pretty damning stuff here. This is what happens when an administration doesnt care about expertise or even governing well.

a completely inoffensive name

03-26-2020, 06:33

In brighter news my friend Jess, 32, two kids, husband, Registered Nurse, is not home recovering after three days in hospital.

Of course, this just reinforces the image that it's "not that bad" for young people.

That is wonderful news! If you are worried about any of your close friends thinking that they can handle the disease, you can bring up this counter example from the UK:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/london-woman-36-dies-of-suspected-covid-19-after-being-told-she-is-not-priority?

Beskar

03-26-2020, 20:07

Things are scary.

There was an official warning sent out for NHS staff due to significant increase in attacks on them. This is either due to apparently healthcare staff being "plague bearers" or trying to mug them for their NHS ID badges so they have go in the quicker checkout at the super market. People are breaking in their cars for handgel whilst staff are on home visits. People turning up in A&E and robbing vital supplies and PPE used to prevent cross infection. There are reports of NHS staff being evicted from rented accommodation as landlords are not wanting the "plague bearers" in. There have been a spat of arson attacks on food parcel & medication delivery vans too. Destroying the ability of services trying to get supplies to the most vulnerable in society. There are terrible decisions and vital services being cut off, which will kill people, all in the name of covid-19.

It is really disgusting what is happening in society at the moment and this is getting no where the attention it needs.

Strike For The South

03-26-2020, 20:26

The information is all over the place. We are flying blind.

It also doesn't help that we don't do a good enough job communicating exponential growth and statistics to the lay man.

ReluctantSamurai

03-26-2020, 20:27

OMG payback is a bitch!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52053656

A bit of humor:

https://twitter.com/mokciknab/status/1241261584535580673

:bounce:

Beskar

03-26-2020, 21:05

Well, there was a massive surprise. There was a viral "come out and clap for frontline workers" at 8pm today. The whole street was out in force giving a round of applause. I was expecting it to be pretty silent.

https://i.imgur.com/p4yQIOm.jpg

edyzmedieval

03-26-2020, 21:43

Unfortunately, at the first sign of distress, the whole pretence of society somehow disappears and that's why you get hoarding, people fighting over toilet paper, breaking into NHS staff' cars...

In Romania they've enforced a total lockdown and to make it so nobody will complain or dodge, a very swift army order was imposed so the Police is patrolling with the Army on the street. Army dressed in full combat uniform.

ReluctantSamurai

03-26-2020, 23:15

In Romania they've enforced a total lockdown and to make it so nobody will complain or dodge, a very swift army order was imposed so the Police is patrolling with the Army on the street. Army dressed in full combat uniform.

The whole country or just selected areas? With just over 1,000 cases reported, and 22 confirmed deaths there, a lock-down should go a long ways towards keeping cases and deaths low. Don't know much about the political climate in Romania, so is this something well received, or too early to tell?

Elsewhere, I imagine that this is going to become more commonplace in the near future:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/insurer-tal-moves-to-exclude-people-who-die-from-covid-19/12093542

Montmorency

03-27-2020, 07:28

Unemployment claims:

https://i.imgur.com/57SFHM2.jpg

We can speak of media failures once again, for failing to be alarmist (again), indeed for performing anti-alarmism, in the first month of global reporting on novel coronavirus. But this was also a failure shared by much of the intelligentsia as well as the political classes of almost every country, such that most countries' responses have been different shades of 'unsatisfactory', indicating a general status quo bias. Sounds familiar... [Seamus may be interested in this one]
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/why-was-it-so-hard-to-raise-the-alarm-on-coronavirus.html
In a way, rory's comment that government's would prioritize short-term economic stability over effective readiness was prescient, but with the wrinkle that people prioritize the most recent simulus. That is, they will only act to reconceptualize their worldview when events overtake them. Yesterday's sentiment displaces sustained rational planning for most of us, leading to a general pattern with almost any kind of crisis you can name, really, a pattern towards decisive action only toward or subsequent to the crisis' peak. One of the great cognitive flaws of the species, when early action will almost always dramatically reduce the final cost of any challenge. But we tergiversate until the drywall has already fallen off around the leak.

In just two months, what sounded like hysteria to scolding experts has become conventional wisdom among even cautious epidemiologists. “We’re looking at something that’s catastrophic on a level that we have not seen for an infectious disease since 1918,” Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia professor projecting the spread of the virus, told the New York Times on Friday. Where had I read that before?

There may be particular questions, in other words, about particular data points and comparisons contained in Feigl-Ding’s rushed thread — though it’s worth pointing out that even in the initial thread, he suggested the true R0 might be closer to 2.5, and in subsequent tweets corrected the other points. And the broad message? The purposeful incitement of public alarm? If the question is whether Feigl-Ding was right to be alarmed by what he was reading, whether alarm was an appropriate response to what we knew even then about the infectiousness and lethality of this disease, and whether it was therefore responsible to induce panic in the public, we can say — with the benefit of hindsight, yes, but also definitively — it was. And if the question is whether, on January 20, the world as a whole should have freaked out considerably more about the coronavirus, initiating emergency planning and launching medical preparation on a war footing immediately, the answer, eight weeks later, is blindingly obvious: Yes, of course we should have, and we would all be in a much better, safer, and probably more prosperous place if we had.

Hindsight is 20/20, of course, and there are surely plenty of situations where we would want to guard against overreactions as zealously, or more zealously, as we would underreactions. But in a time of good governance, this is a central function of government: to prepare for the risks that the public can’t process rationally. And though we often feel, on social media especially, that we live swimming in a sea of alarm, it may be the case, instead, that the general din prevents us from hearing real cries of alarm by teaching us that almost anybody raising their voice above the crowd is a nut, or a narcissist, or a troll.

This is bad. As I’ve written before about climate change, when the news is alarming, the only responsible response is to be alarmed — and raise alarm. And like runaway climate change, the threat of a global pandemic, which graybeards have been warning about for years, is a reminder that we should always build public policy around the precautionary principle, rather than waiting until uncontestable and inarguable evidence arrives that action is necessary. If we wait that long, it will always be too late. Would it have been better if Feigl-Ding’s tweet thread had made a more precisely accurate comparison to SARS, and included some more caveats around the R0 3.8 figure? Perhaps. But science proceeds by increments, and in times of rapid, onrushing crisis the direction is important, too, not just the degree. The fact that we are now living more or less precisely through the situation Feigl-Ding warned us about in January suggests that two months ago we should have understood that this outcome was, at the very least, a possibility, and therefore worth planning for — rather than dismissing it as irresponsible fearmongering.

Writers and thinkers often use the phrase “wicked problem” to describe the challenge of climate change, driven by so many divergent interests and actors it can seem impossible to untangle even at a conceptual level, let alone a practical one. The philosopher Timothy Morton has coined the related term “hyperobject” — a conceptual fact so large and complex that, like the internet, it can never be properly comprehended. The present pandemic crisis takes all of those hard-to-wrap-your-head-around features and adds another — hyperspeed. Along with everything else, the pace of this pandemic has been dizzying. Patient zero was less than six months ago. Three months ago, you had probably never heard of the disease, and now, in the space of just a few weeks, it has completely upended your life and the lives of billions of others.

As Governor Cuomo said, the world we once knew is gone, and we have to accept that.

Elizabeth Warren has a short post (https://medium.com/@SenWarren/congress-must-move-to-rapidly-increase-our-coronavirus-testing-capacity-8c5abd71b6f1) on how Congress can spur increased testing. Although it is good news that - according to the data from the COVID testing tracker I posted yesterday - we've finally hit the milestone of testing 100K daily nationally, which I said was the bare minimum earlier. At this stage we need a million tests daily. New York has tested almost 20K in the past day, reaching near top-of-the-world in testing per capita. The entire country needs to get to at least New York's level.

Satellite imagery (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/) of Iranian mass graves.

Aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (https://www.navytimes.com/news/coronavirus/2020/03/26/in-the-pacific-a-covid-19-outbreak-sidelines-a-deployed-aircraft-carrier/) docked to manage a COVID outbreak.

Boom (https://www.vox.com/2020/3/25/21193805/poll-national-lockdown-coronavirus-trump-easter). Broad, trans-partisan, cross-generational support for a national quarantine. Of course, this was conducted just before Trump flipped his script again..
https://i.imgur.com/egHANQo.jpg

OMG payback is a bitch!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52053656

A bit of humor:

https://twitter.com/mokciknab/status/1241261584535580673

But AMLO, Mexico's president, is vying for the honor of having the worst pandemic response in the world...
https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/amlo-trump-coronavirus-dios-mio/

As for humor, this is a good Trump impression.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbPQCJtnT6o&

edyzmedieval

03-27-2020, 11:30

The whole country or just selected areas? With just over 1,000 cases reported, and 22 confirmed deaths there, a lock-down should go a long ways towards keeping cases and deaths low. Don't know much about the political climate in Romania, so is this something well received, or too early to tell?

Elsewhere, I imagine that this is going to become more commonplace in the near future:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/insurer-tal-moves-to-exclude-people-who-die-from-covid-19/12093542

Whole country, total lockdown. I can only go to work (work from home for me), to the supermarket to buy food and to the medic. That's it.

Our health system is very very fragile in Romania so I'm glad they took the steps of total lockdown. Fortunately, with some exceptions, people are more or less taking this seriously and the lockdown doesn't need significant enforcing which I am quite happy with.

Adding the visual effect of the military to enforce the ban should be very useful in the long term. People started complaining but their voices were drowned out quite quickly when the cases skyrocketed from 150 to 1000 in about 4 days.

Crandar

03-27-2020, 13:33

Here the number of cases has increased relatively stably, but I think the main reason behind this is that testing is done only in exceptional circumstances. Some of the victims were diagnosed post-mortem, including a 41-years old women, who was never hospitalised.

Shaka_Khan

03-27-2020, 13:56

There's an uprising in Wuhan, China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qaBPWOzlr4

Montmorency

03-27-2020, 19:39

‘I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators’: Trump questions New York’s plea for critical equipment (https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/27/coronavirus-trump-fox-ventilator/)

At a news conference earlier this week, Cuomo (D) excoriated the Trump administration for its response to the global pandemic, pointing to the worsening situation in New York as a harbinger of what’s to come for states and cities nationwide that are also battling rising numbers of cases. Chief among Cuomo’s concerns for his state was a shortage of ventilators.

As of Tuesday morning, Cuomo said New York needed 30,000 ventilators, noting that the state had so far acquired about 7,000 units, with the Federal Emergency Management Agency offering to provide 400 more. Later that day, Vice President Pence said the White House would be sending an additional 4,000 ventilators as part of an effort to “surge resources” to New York.

During his call with Hannity on Thursday, the president put the onus on local leaders to shoulder the brunt of the response in their respective states, emphasizing the federal government’s role as “a second line of attack.”

Trump went on to single out Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, accusing the two Democrats of not doing enough to address the health crisis. Both Inslee and Whitmer have called on Trump to provide more resources to their states.

“He shouldn’t be relying on the federal government. He’s always complaining,” Trump said of Inslee.

The president then turned to Whitmer, whose name he did not appear to know.

“And your governor of Michigan, she’s not stepping up,” he said. “I don’t know if she knows what’s going on. All she does is sit there and blame the federal government.”

But although Trump insisted that he is “getting along” with Cuomo and a majority of the other governors, he continued to challenge their requests for help.

“I think that a lot of things are being said that are more — I don’t think that certain things will materialize,” he said. “A lot of equipment’s being asked for that I don’t think they’ll need."

President Trump cast doubt Thursday on New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s assertion that his state, which has become the epicenter for the coronavirus outbreak in the United States, will need 30,000 ventilators to properly care for the influx of patients anticipated to flood hospitals in coming weeks.

“I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said in some areas are just bigger than they’re going to be,” Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity in a phone interview. “I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You know, you go into major hospitals sometimes they’ll have two ventilators, and now all of a sudden they’re saying, ‘Can we order 30,000 ventilators?’”

The president’s comments came shortly after the New York Times reported that the White House had abruptly called off a plan to announce this week that General Motors and Ventec Life Systems would be partnering to produce as many as 80,000 ventilators, citing concerns with the deal’s $1 billion price tag.

Snark time: Clearly it is impossible to suitably respond to and prepare for catastrophes with such a price tag, a whole half a percent of the real estate developer tax cuts smuggled into the Phase 3 stimulus!!!

Meanwhile...

After Trump Attacks Whitmer, She Says Vendors Aren't Sending Desperately Needed Coronavirus Supplies (https://wwjnewsradio.radio.com/articles/after-trump-attacks-whitmer-she-says-fed-supplies-delayed)

The other stuff was Trump speaking with Sean Hannity on FOX News about Whitmer, a Democrat who has said very pointed things about the federal government's lack of coordinated response to the coronavirus crisis. Trump said of Whitmer, "She is a new governor, and it's not been pleasant ... "We've had a big problem with the young — a woman governor. You know who I'm talking about — from Michigan. We don't like to see the complaints."

Michigan's request for disaster assistance has not yet been approved by the White House, and Trump told Hannity he's still weighing it.

"She doesn't get it done, and we send her a lot. Now, she wants a declaration of emergency, and, you know, we'll have to make a decision on that. But Michigan is a very important state. I love the people of Michigan."

Translation:

Trump to Blue States: DROP DEAD

But what's most horrific, in a practical sense, is that the President has abdicated the fundamental role of central government as logistical manager in emergencies (offer still valid for some Republicans). Coordinating and distributing resources to lower jurisdictions is almost the entirety of the state's responsibility! So out of his stupidity, laziness, and above all, evil pettiness, he will condemn thousands of my countryfolk and fellow New Yorkers to death. This is effectively Stalinism.

The bottleneck for any large institution is the decision-making of its highest authorities. It doesn't matter how much money you can marshall, or how good your personnel are, or how potent your doctrines, up to the point of those in power squandering them.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-worst-intelligence-failure-us-history-covid-19/

DATA!
https://twitter.com/MikaelThalen/status/1243281598037913600

On the stunning failure - or better to say, non-existence - of US-China cooperation over the pandemic, courtesy of Robert Farley.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/26/why-china-us-cant-cooperate-fight-coronavirus/
https://warontherocks.com/2020/03/china-america-and-the-international-order-after-the-pandemic/
https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/combating-covid-19-without-china/

Pannonian

03-27-2020, 20:10

There's an uprising in Wuhan, China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qaBPWOzlr4

Is there anything readable in English about this? I'm wary of taking a youtube video at their word, in another language I don't understand no less.

ReluctantSamurai

03-28-2020, 00:26

So out of his stupidity, laziness, and above all, evil pettiness, he will condemn thousands of my countryfolk and fellow New Yorkers to death. This is effectively Stalinism.

Well, he did promise "America First." And so we are.....first in the world in the number of infectious cases. Soon to be followed by first in deaths. Thanks Donny Baby:thwack:

Hooahguy

03-28-2020, 00:52

We voted in a reality show president so now we are in Survivor.

Greyblades

03-28-2020, 02:20

Consider that America is third in population, first in wealth and has high freedom of information. Loads of people, loads of testing and loads of reporting, as much as said reporters might whinge otherwise. The only nations who likely even could end up with higher numbers recorded are India and China. Both went into lockdown further than America has, or likely even could. Both have a comparitive dearth of information compared to America

India is in a word: under-tested (https://www.news18.com/news/india/with-just-18-tests-per-million-of-population-why-indias-low-testing-rate-for-coronavirus-is-worrying-2552845.html), the level of stats other nations have gathered just plain dont exist yet. Considering the sheer number of people they have to deal with in poor living conditions, as well as thier level of development... well we'd better hope a vaccine or a cheap reliable treatment comes before the lockdown becomes impossible to sustain.

China has a different problem; thier testing cannot be trusted because the chinese government cant be trusted. They screwed up the opening (https://www.vox.com/2020/2/10/21124881/coronavirus-outbreak-china-li-wenliang-world-health-organization) beyond just the local level, have been taking efforts (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/17/china-to-expel-journalists-from-3-us-outlets-134170) to suppress third party reporting (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/14/business/wuhan-coronavirus-journalists.html) and even inter-china communication (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51732042) regarding the virus, making the only source for statistics out of china the state censored ones.

Even were the official numbers not doctored behind the scenes they would be underreported compared to american reports simply because they intentionally do not count asymptomatic cases (https://www.ft.com/content/4aa35288-3979-44f7-b204-b881f473fca0) and the quality control in thier testing kits are proving unreliable (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/business/china-coronavirus-masks-tests.html).

Now consider that most of the world's nations are going to be in a situation like china or india, or a combination both, and it becomes much less outrageous that america would post the largest number.

Taking this into consideration it would be a good idea if we could avoid falling into the "metal helmets cause more headwounds" trap over the disparity in statistics here. Remember, spanish flu wasnt called that because it came from there or that it was extraordinarily affected but because spain was the first area it hit that didnt have reporting suppressed so as to not undertmine a war effort, France, Germany, the UK and perhaps even the US were hit before Spain was.

ReluctantSamurai

03-28-2020, 03:08

Taking this into consideration it would be a good idea if we could avoid falling into the "metal helmets cause more headwounds" trap over the disparity in statistics here.

Dunno what this means. The "America First" was meant as a parody of a "Trumpism" that has come to pass, just not in the way he intended. In the coming weeks, India will probably surge to the forefront as the virus burns through all those tightly packed urban areas; Africa and S.America will probably be right behind.

and perhaps even the US were hit before Spain was

By many accounts, the first wave of the 1918 outbreak started in the US, was spread to Europe by US soldiers, and then returned to the US in a more virulent form when those soldiers returned.

and it becomes much less outrageous that america would post the largest number

What's outrageous is that the US wasted at least six weeks of response time listening to the BS being spouted from the White House. Yeah, hindsight is always 20/20....blah, blah, blah....but by the third week of February (particularly after the WHO-China report was released), it was obvious that containment was out of the question and preparations should have begun in earnest to get the hospitals ready. And so we have what we have here, as a result:shame:

Montmorency

03-28-2020, 16:09

It was not foreordained that the US should be the epicenter of COVID-19, or that its president should echo Stalinist terror against his political enemies. This is far beyond even depraved indifference.

What else I heard: EU is activating the general escape clause for the first time in history. Let's end austerity forever?

samurai: Aylward and WHO being sketchy.
https://twitter.com/wilfredchan/status/1243887606569590784

Now that would be within the proper terminological scope of "political correctness." :(

Furunculus

03-28-2020, 16:16

Re: Metal helmets cause more head wounds

Dunno what this means.

I think this is a good analogy of his analogy:
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/09/counterintuitive-world/

Furunculus

03-28-2020, 16:23

What else I heard: EU is activating the general escape clause for the first time in history. Let's end austerity forever?

This is indeed a change, but it a changes that should have been made in 2013/14 when Italy nearly went to the wall.

What has not been is the agreement between the Germany+Hansa2.0 and France+ClubMed that debt mutualisation is the only healthy future that the eurozone has.
This failed to happen on Thursday, and Ministers have wasted another fortnight trying to bring magic to the world - all the while economic capacity and regenerative vitality dies!

The damage will be global, but the disparity in recovery will starkly reveal those 'states' that can adapt quickly vs those that cannot.

a completely inoffensive name

03-28-2020, 20:02

Montmorency

03-28-2020, 20:47

Trump hording the ventilators for the Red states who will vote for him and are currently shitting the bed with their inaction.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-coronavirus-isnt-just-a-blue-state-problem/

I think it is now a safe bet that future historians will rank Trump possibly as just barely above Buchanan. Depending on his conduct during the election, he may secure last place.

Bottom 3 are definitely (unordered) Trump, Johnson, Bush II. Buchanan's main demerit is not being an affirmatively good president when the country needed one. Not that he didn't help along secessionism, but you have to weigh these things according to context and causal responsibility. You could put him in the bottom 5, but Johnson's sabotage of Reconstruction is IMO worse than Buchanan staying the course to destruction. And Bush II was certainly our very worst, until the challenger appeared.

Furunculus

03-28-2020, 21:46

Are we in a position to say that johnson has done a bad job yet?

CrossLOPER

03-28-2020, 21:52

Re: Metal helmets cause more head wounds

I think this is a good analogy of his analogy:
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/09/counterintuitive-world/
I would just like to point out that Mother Jones has a heartbreaking swing-and-miss ratio when it comes to getting the point. It's not as bad in this article, but the article on "big plastic" seems to go everywhere except where it needs to go. Namely, asking why do people still have difficulty realizing that you can wash cloth bags.*

There was another article about how people shouldn't be getting money, because them not having money isn't the problem. I wonder if the author of that article went outside and noticed what happened to all the restaurants, theaters and other high volume areas and wondered what happened to all the people normally staffing them?

*I remember back in the mid 2000s, I watched a CNN report about how surprised people were that there were bacteria in their cloth bags that they never washed. I also did a personal study in a dormitory common bathroom during my early days at Uni, and found that no one washed their hands. Not that they didn't wash them properly, but that they just went straight out after relieving themselves. It is puzzling what the parents of these individuals were doing in place of actually raising them to have any skills, manners or common sense.

This is sort of a non-sequitur, but I have difficulty relating to these types of people. Sort of like I have difficulty understanding all of the apocalyptic reports regarding people's social lives. Your friends aren't dead. If your mom and dad stay inside, they will probably be fine.

In Brazil, where the president would rather see corpses in huge piles, so long as the factories continue making cars, presumably to fill up all of those tombs for the deceased so that they will have vehicles in the afterlife. In India, the authorities had at least a month after the pandemic began to fully take hold, and they couldn't even cobble together a sensible message. I still see people wandering around in parks in large groups because they still don't seem to GET IT. The world around them is undergoing something, and they just space out like their minds cannot comprehend how they fit in to society.

People buy all of these huge houses, but don't want to spend any time in them. You have 10 social media accounts, but none of them give you any satisfaction. Why would that be?

Greyblades

03-28-2020, 22:57

ReluctantSamurai

03-28-2020, 23:01

Aylward and WHO being sketchy.

Perhaps the WHO doesn't want to pi$$ off China by giving kudos to Taiwan? (or in this case acknowledging they even exist:rolleyes:)

Still doesn't invalidate the scientific work done to prepare that paper:shrug:

ReluctantSamurai

03-28-2020, 23:29

On the possible federal lock-down of NY:

Mr Trump did not provide further details about what a quarantine on New York or other badly hit US cities would look like. But he said it would be aimed at slowing the spread of the virus to other parts of the US. "They're having problems down in Florida. A lot of New Yorkers are going down. We don't want that," he said as he left the White House.

Donny Baby---how 'bout you lock down Florida:

https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/status/1242628347034767361

The 'Big Brother' implications are scary, but nonetheless the data shows where all those idiots on the beach went back to after the booze was all gone....

I think we should start a new thread with nothing but stories about human interests, both uplifting and tragic (no politics, just about people), like this one:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-52078098

a completely inoffensive name

03-28-2020, 23:51

Are we in a position to say that johnson has done a bad job yet?

Doesnt matter, at this point I am convinced its no longer a joke that as long as a politician is the wrong ideology they could cure cancer and half the internet would bitch about them putting chemotherapists out of work.

Really tiring.

LOL, you bois just see the word Johnson and assume it's about Boris? Andrew Johnson, the 17th US President who fucked over Lincoln's policies and was one vote away from removal of office.

a completely inoffensive name

03-29-2020, 01:58

Bottom 3 are definitely (unordered) Trump, Johnson, Bush II. Buchanan's main demerit is not being an affirmatively good president when the country needed one. Not that he didn't help along secessionism, but you have to weigh these things according to context and causal responsibility. You could put him in the bottom 5, but Johnson's sabotage of Reconstruction is IMO worse than Buchanan staying the course to destruction. And Bush II was certainly our very worst, until the challenger appeared.

Buchanan didn't even try and was sympathetic to the south to the point where his response to secession was calling for convention to write slaves as property into the constitution. He would have let the south break off if it wasn't for his more competent (and patriotic) staff and he would have given the south everything they wanted if it wasn't for Lincoln guiding his party to reject further compromises.

I wouldn't call Bush II the worst, that is a very near sighted view. Bush II is in bottom 5, but not the worst.

edyzmedieval

03-30-2020, 23:08

Behind soft paywall as always - a map of the crisis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-coronavirus-cases-world-map/?srnd=premium-europe

Montmorency

03-31-2020, 02:20

"Good lord this video. Like a thoroughbred making a late break in a horse race"
https://twitter.com/i/status/1244119212701990913

Probably belated, but a good formulation of Policy recommendations (https://twitter.com/AbdulElSayed/status/1243660488048816129) from Abdul el-Sayed:

5 goals:

1) See curve: deploy tests efficiently
2) Flatten curve: Reduce transmission
3) Prepare for curve: Increase healthcare capacity
4) Catch curve: Contact trace below a threshold
4) Save livelihoods

1/
GOAL #1: SEE CURVE -

We don't have good visibility for 2 reasons:

a) our tests are being used mainly on ppl who already presumptive(+) because we're using them at point of care for sick pts.
b) there's a huge gap btwn when ppl are infected & when we get their test outcomes

2/
So instead of using tests at point of care when it doesn't change management:

1) I'd be saving 5-10% of our #COVID tests to deploy in a small representative sample of the population to better understand the spread of disease, and the burden that's on its way

3/
2) I'd screen every responder/provider on the frontlines of #COVID-care by testing at 5-day intervals. They'd be isolated if (+) so not to spread. Not a perfect screen, but better than no test or symptomatic tests.

3) Most tests would deploy at triage in goal 3 (see tweet 12)
4/
The random sample tests may sound like a waste of resources.

But they're CRITICAL: they help to model where the disease is headed, which allows us to "skate to where the puck is going," rather than just where it is right now.

That way, we're not constantly catching up.

5/
GOAL #2: FLATTEN CURVE -

I agree w/ "Stay at home" orders.

Would add:

1) require curbside protocols + no touch payment (online/phone) + social distancing workplace rules

2) require gas stations to wipe stations between customers

6/
I would also set a clear guideline for a phased let-down of #socialdistancing protocols as we meet certain points on the epidemic curve on the way down--creating a transparent, science-based answer to "when are we done with this" that the community can track and understand

7/
GOAL #3: PREPARE FOR CURVE -

The whole point of #SocialDistancing is to reduce the peak of the crest of #COVID patients. But the other thing we have to do is INCREASE the # of patients we can care for.

That's the whole point here. We have to PREPARE for the rush.

8/
At BEST, that means setting up an alternative #COVID-care system.

In every major metro + some rural communities, I'd ID a hotel, a dorm, or convention center to start preparing as a hospital now.

No one in the state should be more than 1 hr from a #COVID-care facility.

9/
That's where I'd be sending all the #COVID patients. There, a team of MDs/NPs/PAs would oversee a team of folks trained specifically to manage #COVID19 patients.

Could train EMTs, MAs, and other health pros. If well managed, a few MDs/NPs/PAs could manage many others.

10/
How to decide who goes to #COVID-care? An algorithm and a system of triage centers in front of every ER + urgicare.

First, set up triage centers to segregate folks into the usual healthcare system (for non-COVID) vs. the #COVID19 system

11/
Second, create an algorithm to ID #COVID probability. Using temp, # of COVID exposures, & chest x-ray/CT result--calculate probability score

For very high/low #COVID probability, no test.

Test mid-range probability.

All high probability & (+) patients go to #COVID-care.

12/
Segregating #COVID has several advantages:
1) We don't overwhelm usual healthcare system
2) We reduce contamination of COVID(-) sick in the usual system
3) We concentrate where we send COVID resources (#PPE, #ventilators) to facilitate logistics

13/
Resource procurement for #COVID-care is key. First, #POTUS needs to activate #DefenseProductionAct, which appears to be happening now for #ventilators.

But we also need it for #PPE and #tests.

Most of my messaging/time would be focused on getting resources to COVID-care

14/
GOAL #4: CATCH THE CURVE

It's a misnomer that we can't "contain" #COVID19. We just can't contain it NOW. Once case # falls, contact tracing/containment can begin again.

Along w/ transparent easing of #SocialDistancing as cases fall, I'd ramp containment up, a new phase.

15/
We'd need to start stockpiling tests & training up a large staff of contact-tracers beforehand to be ready to contact-trace at scale once case # falls below a certain number. That would require us to contact-trace all new cases beyond a point on the epi curve.

16/
It would mean a new strategic deployment of tests vs what I discussed above, focusing on testing contacts of cases who aren't already recovered (and presumed immune--though need more data on this point).

Would enforce isolation for all exposed & (+) so no rebound case jump

17/
GOAL #5: SAVE LIVELIHOODS:

Along w/ resources, I'd be spending a lot of time lobbying for relief on the economic front.

That's full UBI, waived healthcare costs, small business grants.

That's holding corps accountable for lost jobs/broken bargaining agreements/buybacks.

18/
I'm grateful to the state & local public officials on the front lines rn. I wish I were there with you. I can only imagine the stress & sleepless nights. Thank you - you're heroes.

I hope this can be a helpful resource from one epidemiologist/former health director.

19/19
AND - gaming this from the luxury of my #quarantine is SUPER different than doing it real life. SO I very much appreciate that, as @MikeTyson said:

"Everyone's got a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."

Inevitably, the official tally of COVID cases and deaths is going to be a severe undercount of the true national and global progressions of the disease. A quick look at what may be an instance of this in Italy:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/this-is-very-important-from-italy-please-read

Here are the relevant statistics.

Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the town most hard hit in per capita terms by COVID-19. Currently the town has 31 deaths attributed to COVID-19. But when the two authors looked at the total number of deaths registered in the town in January, February and March and compared it to the average for that period in previous years they found the number was dramatically larger. 158 deaths have been registered in the town during that period this year compared to an average of 35 in previous years.

The math is simple: the average of 35 plus the 31 COVID-19 deaths gets you to 66. But the town has recorded almost 100 more deaths on top of that. As the authors say, “The difference is enormous and cannot be a simple statistical deviation.”

The authors applied the same analysis to two other towns and in both came up with anomalous deaths 6.1 times the number officially attributed to COVID-19. The ratio was even higher for Bergamo as a whole.

As I said, these numbers are so stark that I don’t think you need a lot of training in statistics to see that something very big is happening with these numbers and it is almost certainly tied to COVID-19.

This chart from the article, even though the legend is in Italian, makes the point clearly enough. Blue is the baseline. Green is the official COVID-19 death toll. And red is the actual recorded all-cause mortality in the town for the period in question.

https://cdn.talkingpointsmemo.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/tab2-kCkD-U317019249828386UG-593x443@Corriere-Web-Sezioni.jpg

The authors go on to speculate or argue that the answer is something like universal infection from COVID-19. They note that if all citizens of the town had been infected, 158 deaths would equal to 1% mortality, which is close to the ballpark estimate most epidemiologist are working with. (11,500 residents and 123 fatalities, when you subtract the average of 35 deaths from the recorded number of 158.)

This strikes me as considerably more speculative interpretation. Certainly there are more actual than confirmed infections in every area affected by COVID-19. So this must be part of the explanation. But it also seems possible to me that some significant part of this is people dying from other ailments they might have survived because of the degraded standard of care amidst a pandemic.

I don't want to look into what this may be, but suspect it will come up again in the future.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive

I've seen multiple sources point out lately that any face covering or mask appreciably reduces the risk of transmission or infection. Generally the discourse has been that masks should be reserved for healthcare workers and the ill, but here a sociologist points out that institutional messaging and guidelines on mask usage have been elitist, contradictory, and counterproductive. I regret once upholding and promulgating these flawed guidelines, including the CDC's and WHO's own, on who should wear masks and when.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html

@ Samurai: The bastage in Hungary went and did it. When we liberate ourselves (https://twitter.com/donmoyn/status/1244622986767892481) we need to return to Europe and finish the job. ;)

That the EU has neither the will nor the power to do anything about this is one of those testaments to its weakness.

Meanwhile, Mexico's president is REALLY insistent on being a disappointment and a failure.

Montmorency

03-31-2020, 02:43

https://i.imgur.com/sioNDqf.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Imvh6pB.jpg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0-2XxgHIXk

Pannonian

03-31-2020, 08:46

ReluctantSamurai

03-31-2020, 13:25

There can be a difference between medical definition and social definition. They can count only those specifically with Covid-19 infections as having died with Covid-19, while others may have died without the infection or associated symptoms, but with other conditions that the doctors cannot cope with because they are snowed under with dealing with Covid-19. If you want an accurate tracker of the progress of Covid-19 infections, you count only the first group. The second group may be a more accurate tracker of the social effects of the virus, but does it help measure the effectiveness of actions taken?

Whether someone dies as a direct result of SARS-CoV-2, or from something else because there wasn't room at the hospital to treat them, is there really any difference? If the actions taken by government leaders leads to a severe lack of preparedness, and people die that otherwise might not have, they should be counted as COVID-19 casualties.

While an exact count may never be possible, the increase in y-o-y deaths is probably as good a measure as any:shrug:

Viking

03-31-2020, 16:02

The number of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals in Norway is currently levelling off:

https://i.imgur.com/yn69zmX.jpg

(source (https://www.nrk.no/korona/status/))

This is another data point indicating that "lockdowns" might not be necessary to avoid overwhelmed hospitals, as long as other adequate measures are introduced early enough.

Pannonian

03-31-2020, 16:37

Whether someone dies as a direct result of SARS-CoV-2, or from something else because there wasn't room at the hospital to treat them, is there really any difference? If the actions taken by government leaders leads to a severe lack of preparedness, and people die that otherwise might not have, they should be counted as COVID-19 casualties.

While an exact count may never be possible, the increase in y-o-y deaths is probably as good a measure as any:shrug:

If a particular measure results in a reduction in directly affected Covid-19 victims, then they need to know the exact figures on that, and not have that mixed up with other subsequent stats. They know there are subsequent effects, so it's not as if they are disregarding them.

ReluctantSamurai

03-31-2020, 17:11

This is another data point indicating that "lockdowns" might not be necessary to avoid overwhelmed hospitals, as long as other adequate measures are introduced early enough.

Those other "adequate measures" are likely one of the reasons for slowing infections. Norway has one of the highest levels of tests per million, exceeding even S. Korea. This allows for tracing contacts which is crucial in slowing infection rates. Couple that with Norway's lower population density (outside of Oslo), and a quick response keeps the virus spread in a "containment" phase rather than a "suppression" phase.

Once the window of opportunity has passed for containment, the only tactic available is the "sledgehammer" tactic of quarantine. So kudos to Norway's leaders if the leveling trend continues:2thumbsup:

and not have that mixed up with other subsequent stats

If you have y-o-y statistics for deaths over an extended period of time, then any large spike in recorded deaths not directly linked to SARS-CoV-2 since the beginning of March can be indirectly linked, yes? But, I suppose a line has to be drawn somewhere, otherwise you start counting deaths from civil unrest (murders, suicides, etc.), or like those unfortunate souls in India that will die on their trek home:shrug:

Montmorency

03-31-2020, 17:16

Most accurate gif. https://twitter.com/jon_m_green/status/1244765744342208512

Maybe sometimes Big Daddy Government (https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/29/government-must-pay-people-stay-home/) is good.

In short, we should pay people to stay home — and pay handsomely. Why? Because such a strategy works to stop an epidemic.

This vital object lesson comes to us from an unlikely source: the history of animal agriculture in the United States. In fact, the earliest effective government responses to epidemic illness in the United States came not in the context of human health, but in the context of livestock. A little known government agency, the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) in the U. S. Department of Agriculture, pioneered effective responses to addressing epidemic illness, making the United States a global leader in this area of veterinary medicine. The BAI’s approach, known as “area eradication,” used a combination of quarantines and financial incentives to completely eradicate the pathogens of targeted veterinary illnesses. It was so successful, public health officials concerned with human illnesses studied it closely and modeled smallpox eradication campaigns from it. Today, as we grapple with covid-19 we need to heed these lessons once again.

The Bureau of Animal Industry was created within the USDA in 1884, at a time when animal agriculture was one of the largest sectors of the American economy. The United States had always been an agricultural economy, but the political ascendance of the Republican Party in the aftermath of the Civil War unlocked massive agricultural expansion. The U.S. military and settlers forcibly removed indigenous populations from millions of Western acres and slaughtered wholesale the bison that grazed there. Thanks to the Homestead Act of 1862 and the federally subsidized expansion of the railroads across the continent, cattle quickly replaced bison as the dominant grazers.

Cattle then became one of the most valuable resources in the growing agricultural economy. They grazed on the High Plains and then were transported by rail to Chicago for slaughter. From Chicago, various animal products — meat, tallow, cheese and hides — streamed East and even to Europe. By 1900, approximately 4.3 percent of the nation’s wealth was held in livestock, larger than the value of the nation’s railroads, and second only to land as a class of assets. Animal products were also a substantial export, with barreled American pork a ubiquitous presence in European markets. Even by 1870, a full fifth of the value of U.S. exports came from animal products.

The global circulation of meat and animal products also created the context for the circulation of disease. As animals traversed the North American continent, they mingled in close quarters in rail cars, feedlots and stockyards. They traded illnesses under the best of conditions, but the tight spaces of animal agriculture were also rarely hygienic. Endemic livestock illness could take a staggering economic toll, with sick and dying animals costing farmers millions. It could also ruin the nation’s already spotty reputation as a global supplier of meat. Between 1879 and 1881, Spain, Germany, France, Italy and Austria-Hungary all imposed bans on U.S. pork products due to concerns about endemic trichinosis.

Given these stakes, when epidemics of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia and Texas fever hit the U.S. cattle supply in 1884, Congress took action. Coordinating the nation’s response to veterinary illness and securing the safety of the nation’s supply of meat necessitated a federal agency. With the new BAI created, President Chester A. Arthur appointed Daniel Salmon, a veterinarian, to head it, reflecting the agency’s primary focus on the control of veterinary illness. (The bacteria salmonella, discovered by one of his assistants, is named in Salmon’s honor.)

The BAI’s powers were vast and unprecedented. The BAI claimed the immediate ability to supervise and regulate slaughterhouses connected to global and interstate trade. But Salmon also worked with state governments to craft agreements that deputized BAI agents and endowed them with powers usually reserved for state and municipal law enforcement: the right to enter private property, to declare a quarantine, to seize and kill infected and exposed animals and even to destroy any buildings that might harbor contagions.

With these powers, the BAI pursued an unprecedented approach that came to be known as “area eradication.” The BAI would stop the spread of infectious veterinary illness by eradicating disease pathogens entirely. This required establishing a quarantine zone and restricting the transportation of animals in and out of those zones. Next, they seized and killed all infected animals within the zone (and sometimes merely exposed animals, as well). Finally, they sterilized and destroyed any buildings or equipment that they believed might spread disease.

Salmon and other experts at the BAI were acutely aware of how quarantine could hurt business. They reasoned that restrictive measures alone would suffer from a fatal flaw: Farmers would resist having their stock seized and killed, since it would mean immediate financial ruin. They would do everything they could to conceal evidence of illness, to quietly treat sick animals themselves, to avoid public veterinary health officials and finally to stealthily transport their stock out of the quarantine zones and sell them in other markets. Rather than containing illness, such responses would spread disease further and could accelerate small outbreaks into devastating pandemics.

The BAI had a simple pragmatic approach that defied short term market logics: They offered to purchase sick animals at rates close to the market value of healthy animals. This encouraged farmers to voluntarily cooperate with quarantine measures rather than trying to evade them, avoiding long term catastrophic losses for the agricultural industry.

The BAI’s approach was enormously successful. In 1892, a BAI campaign successfully eradicated contagious bovine pleuropneumonia in the United States. Successful campaigns to eradicate Texas fever, hog cholera and bovine tuberculosis all came in the following decades. Congress strengthened the BAI’s hand further with the Federal Meat Inspection Act of 1906. Meanwhile, public health officials studied the BAI’s approach, and contemporary epidemiologists credit the BAI with pioneering “the precedent and mechanisms” that would lead to smallpox eradication.

This history reminds us that quarantines may be tools of medical authority, but their success and failure depends on human psychology informed by material needs. BAI experts immediately understood the inseparability of the economic and the medical precisely because the victims of disease were property. This sparked thinking that sought to align financial interest with public health priorities.

Humans cannot be reduced to their economic value, but the larger lesson applies now as well: Efforts to stabilize the “economy” must be structured to reinforce public health measures. We cannot make it a “sacrifice” to stay home under quarantine. We need to make staying home the lucrative option. If that seems too expensive to you, weigh it against the death of millions. The choice should be obvious.

There can be a difference between medical definition and social definition. They can count only those specifically with Covid-19 infections as having died with Covid-19, while others may have died without the infection or associated symptoms, but with other conditions that the doctors cannot cope with because they are snowed under with dealing with Covid-19. If you want an accurate tracker of the progress of Covid-19 infections, you count only the first group. The second group may be a more accurate tracker of the social effects of the virus, but does it help measure the effectiveness of actions taken?

A further complication in assembling data on the pandemic, arising from year-on-year comparisons, is that not all COVID hospitalizations and fatalities are registered as such on the spot.

For example, to my understanding even in Italy, where severe cases in hospital are or have been prioritized for testing, not every true case is confirmed or disconfirmed. If a case is not identified during or prior to the treatment process it will likely not be ascertained following death (following recovery and discharge, pending the introduction of antibody tests). So the number of true cases is submerged at all points in the healthcare system. Meanwhile, in other jurisdictions such as New York, the protocols for allocating tests will contribute to the challenge, because there severe cases are dispreferred for testing and are treated as presumptive COVID so that tests can be reserved for other populations. What I do not know is, if these presumptive cases die without having been tested, are they then recorded as COVID fatalities? Practical decisions in a short-term medical context may thus potentially create incomplete information or discontinuities from the perspective of subsequent documentation and analysis.

There are some relatively-strong proxies for COVID, viz. pneumonia diagnosis and ILI (influenze-like infections). Since these diseases or presentations are often correlated with COVID-19, assessing how many die of or are hospitalized for pneumonia or ILI would bring us closer to the true toll - albeit contributive toward some level of overcount, since there will have been cases of pneumonia or ILI, possibly even at elevated rates, independent of coronavirus.

Also troublesome are the physical and material limitations of a healthcare system operating under strain, in establishing even loose causes of death for a growing backlog of corpses of such number that they have to be stored in refrigerated units. All typical 'peri-clinical' (not the right word here, help me out) functions of the healthcare process, including diagnosis, record keeping, and autopsy, are being degraded.

Of course I don't have the knowledge set to navigate these issues, but we do know, at least in the US, that public databases are maintained that collate data and statistics on things like rates of hospitalization for ILI. Once the pandemic finally peaks (in the northern hemisphere) we will assuredly be subject to a trickle of studies estimating the full extent of the pandemic.

Seamus Fermanagh

03-31-2020, 19:25

Of course I don't have the knowledge set to navigate these issues, but we do know, at least in the US, that public databases are maintained that collate data and statistics on things like rates of hospitalization for ILI. Once the pandemic finally peaks (in the northern hemisphere) we will assuredly be subject to a trickle of studies estimating the full extent of the pandemic.

Academe has lots of folks with time on their hands and SPSSX on their home computers. The 'trickle' will rapidly become deluvian.

Shaka_Khan

04-01-2020, 08:07

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yani7kRqsKg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOtfChYnw80

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlCYFh8U2xM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffII0Oyd63c

Shaka_Khan

04-01-2020, 08:11

Is there anything readable in English about this? I'm wary of taking a youtube video at their word, in another language I don't understand no less.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diW-LRz_T2A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43Hot5n2Evg

Shaka_Khan

04-01-2020, 14:25

I remember reading WHO's claim (6:10) that there was no evidence of human-to-human infection, which was following the local government of Wuhan's initial claim in early January. I was confused at that time because the whistleblowers in Wuhan said that it was highly contagious between human-to-human. This was when I began to distrust the WHO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkpuVdCGEPs

ReluctantSamurai

04-01-2020, 16:42

WHO budget contributors (can't find more recent figures for 2019-2020):[as a percentage of budget]

USA---22%
Japan---10.8%
Germany---7%
France---5.6%
China---5.1%
UK---5.2%

Full list here:

https://www.who.int/about/finances-accountability/funding/A68_R12_en.pdf?ua=1

And revenue by type:

https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-government-and-the-world-health-organization/

Results of an internal/external audit in 2017:

https://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/WHA71/A71_29-en.pdf

Note the risk issues on p6:

Financing of the 2018-2019 Programme budget (primary risk related to flexible funding due to reduction in core voluntary contributions and uncertainty regarding future funding prospects)

I can't find a breakout for the "Voluntary Contributions" portion of the WHO, which constitutes 80% of its' revenue. (it's probably somewhere in one of those links on the fact sheet:shrug:), but I'd venture a guess that China is major contributor??

Pannonian

04-01-2020, 16:45

Newsreader can't believe what she is reading. (https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1245369854108016652)

If you don't want to watch, we have been hearing a lot in recent days of non-specialist companies adapting to produce ventilators, with numbers of 30,000 being mooted. The first batch is being produced this weekend, numbering 30. And yes, they did double check the number, as they couldn't believe what they were reading when the news was forwarded.

Montmorency

04-01-2020, 17:12

https://i.imgur.com/GhSbq6O.png

Republican governance (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/coronavirus-trump-war-science-richard-epstein-neil-ferguson.html).

Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, President Trump spent weeks in denial, snapped suddenly into taking the threat seriously, reverted to denialism, and has, for the moment, toggled back to serious concern. In his Sunday press conference, Trump cited his public-health experts and refrained from promising a quick end to social distancing. Yet the threat of recidivism hovers over the presidency. At any moment, the wrong CEO or Fox News personality might get Trump’s ear and persuade him to toggle back to insouciance.

Trump’s congenital impatience is not the only culprit. Republican governors in several states have downplayed the virus, either refusing to enforce social-distancing measures or even overruling local officials who attempt to do so. A new study finds that the single factor that best explains the speed of state-level reaction is its governor’s partisan identity. “States with Republican governors and Republican electorates delayed each social distancing measure by an average of 2.70 days,” the authors find, “a far larger effect than any other factor, including state income per capita, the percentage of neighboring states with mandates, or even confirmed cases in state.”

https://i.imgur.com/t5MTcUO.png

The Captain [Kolesnikov] of the USS Theodore Roosevelt sends a desperate letter. [They followed through]
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Exclusive-Captain-of-aircraft-carrier-with-15167883.php

This is quasi-mutiny, isn't it? Cool. Shaka posted a video about the story just above btw.

Early social distancing is having an effect in Seattle.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/seattle-washington-state-coronavirus-transmission-rate.html

Evidence on economic outcomes of pandemic shutdowns. It turns out plague isn't a great synergy for the economy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-27/tough-pandemic-shutdowns-work-for-the-economy-too

The Danish Employment Minister has a recommendation for America: Nationalize payrolls like the rest are doing.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/denmark-freezing-its-economy-should-us/608533/

Larsen: I have to say that the decision-making process in Denmark has been very extraordinary. We have 10 parties in Parliament. From the very left-wing to the really, really right-wing. And they all agree. There is nearly 100 percent consensus about this. And that’s really amazing. People are convinced that it’s wise to do this now.

Many of these policies are made as tripartite agreements between unions, employers’ associations, and the state. That’s because, in Denmark, most labor-market regulation is done by the unions and the employers’ associations. They regulate the labor market mainly through their own collective agreements. To make all this possible, you need the unions and employers’ associations to be a part of these agreements. That is very difficult. But they succeeded rapidly. In a matter of days, this was a signed agreement.

Elizabeth Warren: "Trump told states they were on their own to purchase medical equipment, so that’s what MA tried to do. But then the federal government outbid MA at least 3 times – and reports show two of our orders were seized by federal authorities. This is unacceptable"
https://twitter.com/SenWarren/status/1245004104713342977

Since some of us are interested in the ground-level view of things, here's a series of personal accounts of our times. The first one I read was the story of a Bay Area grocery store's management.
https://slate.com/tag/coronavirus-diaries

Interesting bit about supply chains:

There’s been a supply chain crunch. It’s been hard. I don’t want to say impossible. I hate to say impossible. We’ve been ordering paper products and having such a hard time—we can’t get anything. We work with a main grocery supplier that used to be a co-op called Unified Grocers. They were bought by SuperValu, and then by UNFI … everything is kind of merging together in the grocery industry right now, which means we only have one main company to go to. They literally told us, “That order you put in? It got canceled.” They don’t have room on their trucks and don’t have enough drivers. I heard that they recently hired 200 new truck drivers, so hopefully we can get the supply chain crunch worked out soon.

Our stores haven’t gotten a frozen load in two stores in two and a half weeks. If I could get some frozen in, I would be super happy. And I haven’t seen toilet paper in a while. We’re contacting one of the vendors that services our commercial kitchen about individually wrapped toilet paper. This isn’t about making money, it’s about trying to get people what they need. We’re going through every avenue possible to find food. Our grocery buyer has reached out to restaurant supply companies that usually supply much larger commercial-sized packaging with the hope that they may have smaller can sizes. Maybe we’ll get lucky.

Produce has been great. The produce supply chain has really held up well. The people who usually sell to restaurants are now able to sell some of that product to us, so at least it’s not going to waste.

One funny thing: There was a run on chicken. Apparently, Californians are in love with chicken. For one week, my husband and I laughed that there was no chicken anywhere in the Bay Area. That’s been cleared up. Our butchers have been working around the clock to get things cleared up.

We have finally seen the stores quiet down a little. Crowds have died off and we’ve seen far less people coming through the door. It seems people are spending more and purchasing for longer amounts of time. It used to be people would come in daily and pick up whatever they wanted for dinner. We still see a good number of people in the morning during the senior hour, from 7 a.m. to 8 a.m. That’s when people think the new product is there. But if they can, they might consider coming in the afternoon because it’s actually less busy.

Recommended also from the series: Everyday Life in Six Other Countries (What life is like this week in the Netherlands, Liberia, Costa Rica, Afghanistan, Ireland, and New Zealand.)

ReluctantSamurai

04-01-2020, 17:33

Also found this published work concerning the future of the WHO:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4567849/

I propose that the assembly create a special chief operating officer to ensure fundamental reform of the organization’s funding and governance. It is clear that the D-G is too politically influenced by member states to make the bold decisions needed to finally bring the WHO into the 21st century and ensure its future. Without this kind of push from the outside, the WHO’s future as a global health leader could be anemic at best.

Concerning the Theodore Rooseveldt:

There are challenges associated with securing individualized lodging for our crew. This will require a political solution but it is the right thing to do. We are not at war. Sailors do not need to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to pr0perly take care of our most trusted asset our Sailors.

Trump has shown complete disconnect with what's happening to the people of his country. Can't wait for his response to what's happening to the personnel of a nuclear CVN:creep:

Asked Tuesday what should be done about the Roosevelt, President Trump said he would “let the military make that decision.”

For one ship, perhaps, but what if there are others?

Shaka_Khan

04-02-2020, 06:58

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFwkjlaYJeA

Like this guy said, I too became aware of the dangers since January. It makes me wonder how so many of the governments were unaware.

Greyblades

04-02-2020, 07:33

I think a certain amount of complacency has developed what with the amount of epidemics that didnt really go anywhere like swine flu, bird flu, SARS, even ebola which while itdid turn into a pandemic that is still going fairly strong, was a localized one.

I expect most of them had become accustomed to waiting for the WHO to weigh in on it before taking action, making it's compromised status all the more damaging.

Pannonian

04-02-2020, 08:29

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFwkjlaYJeA

Like this guy said, I too became aware of the dangers since January. It makes me wonder how so many of the governments were unaware.

In the UK, we've got used to the idea of explaining away reality with politics. See all the expert opinions I cited on Brexit, and all the Brexit supporters waving them away as irrelevant because the will of the people mattered above all else, and the recent landslide victory of a PM who promised Brexit but offered no evidence of competence or accountability. The current government is used to the idea that actions, reasoning for actions and consequences of actions don't matter. The only thing that matters is how actions affect political ratings, and as long as that works out, their actions and plans for future actions work out.

Furunculus

04-02-2020, 09:35

In the UK, we've got used to the idea of explaining away reality with politics. See all the expert opinions I cited on Brexit, and all the Brexit supporters waving them away as irrelevant...

I'm afraid I can't give this notion any credence at all:

The EU is a hybrid that crosses policy and implementation. What was sold as a very technocratic body designed to do quite apolitical things – such as facilitate the convergence of technical standards – has now morphed into an arbiter of public policy. Indeed, key areas of political policy making such as a justice, social, and economic policy.Should prisoners vote? What is the maximum number of hours that can be worked? Should we discourage high-frequency trading?

These areas of policy could not be questioned, because, well, that is the nature of the aquis! As an EU competence they could not be amended or scrapped by national lawmaking. This sits rather poorly with the notion of a Sovereign Parliament, able to lawfully enact anything that a simple majority of its lawmakers agree to. Sorry, out of bounds. This sits equally poorly with a public culture that accepts a majoritarian electoral system, and expects the same lack of impediments to direct plebiscites. Hold on there, that’s not for you to decide. So what is to be done? Simples; pretend the EU isn’t making political choices upon which success or failure can be pronounced. No, it is all simply technocratic implementation of common standards. It is not subject to preference, the appropriate committee has deemed this outcome to be optimal.

This is the context into which Gove dropped his bombshell on experts. He called time on the conspiracy that hid political governance behind a façade of dry technocratic implementation.

And a lot of people seemed to revel in the new found opportunity criticise what was exposed as nothing more or less than a political institution to be weighed, judged, and pronounced upon. For politics is not subject to factual interpretation alone, it is explicitly a value based activity subject to personal preference and collective priority.

Why does it infuriate some people so? Because it forced those for whom the EU is an identity as well as an institution to confront the fact that very few people feel the same way. Their preferences were rational, the experts agreed.

Oops, well that has changed.

Greyblades

04-02-2020, 13:22

Its like the emperor's new clothes if the emperor and the rest of the feudal system's power was reliant on keeping his nakedness unacknowledged.

Furunculus

04-02-2020, 14:32

You'll have to explain that one to me...

Greyblades

04-03-2020, 00:28

Tiredness mostly but when I thought of the scenario of the grand lie that kept the power structure of the EU from being crititicized through a collective unspoken agreement to not acknowledge a naked truth my mind went to a fairy tale of an emperor walking buck ass naked down a street of plebs going "check out my swank threads that only smart people can see" and a combination of shock confusion, deference to the position and a desire to be one of the smart people keeping the crowd from descending into laughter until some kid shouts "nice dick" and the emperor is laughed back into his castle in shame.

Might be misremembering some of that but the general gist is I think accurate.

Montmorency

04-03-2020, 02:05

:laugh4: :verycool:

The new Fallout looks etc.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1245003287868440581

Montmorency

04-03-2020, 17:08

https://twitter.com/i/status/1245003287868440581

Actually resembling more Invisible War (https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/deusex/images/5/5e/OmarTrader.png/revision/latest?cb=20110913141636&path-prefix=en) in many ways, come to think of it.

Someone talk about widespread false negatives in American COVID testing.

The captain of the USS Theodore Roosevelt is to be relieved for doing the honorable thing vis-a-vis his crew.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-defense-secretary-mark-esper-has-his-donald-rumsfeld-moment
(with video) https://www.stripes.com/news/us/captain-crozier-captain-crozier-videos-show-sailors-sending-off-ousted-uss-roosevelt-commander-with-cheers-1.624732

Viking, can you explain what Sweden is doing right now, and why their leaders think social distancing is in their genes?

San Francisco's (relatively) early quarantine is helpful:
https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-bay-area-shelter-in-place-experts-coronavirus-working-2020-3

On the UK's response.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/absolutely-wrong-how-uk-coronavirus-test-strategy-unravelled

Interesting flashback: An article from December on how the Chinese government was responding to a mysterious viral pneumonia outbreak.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3044050/mystery-illness-hits-chinas-wuhan-city-nearly-30-hospitalised

You hate to see it when someone is so smart (check the date).
https://twitter.com/AtomicAnalyst/status/994696175575068672

What happens when you run a modern republic as the fiefdom of an imbecile aristocratic lineage. I've mentioned this before.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/01/jared-kushner-coronavirus-response-160553
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/trump-fired-pandemic-response-jared-kushner-coronavirus.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/opinion/jared-kushner-coronavirus.html
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/inside-trumps-decision-to-back-off-of-his-easter-coronavirus-miracle

Jared Kushner, who’s often been in competition with Trump’s chiefs of staff, continues to be the central West Wing player, leading a shadow coronavirus task force that is more powerful than the official group led by Vice President Mike Pence. In conversations Kushner has blamed HHS Secretary Alex Azar for the criticism Trump has received, according to a person in frequent touch with the West Wing. “This was a total mess,” Kushner told people when he got involved last month. “I know how to make this government run now,” he said, according to a source.

The White House downplayed tensions between Kushner and the task force. “The vice president and Jared work so well together because they both view their roles through the lens of what’s best for the American people and how do we best serve the president,” deputy press secretary Hogan Gidley said. “The task force has orchestrated a massive historic partnership between the public and private sector, coordinated the federal government’s urgent response, and has unleashed a whole-of-America approach that will save lives.”

In recent days Kushner has advocated for his usual, iconoclastic public-private approach, drawing on business contacts. Last week he called Wall Street executives and asked for advice on how to help New York, people briefed on the conversation said. Kushner encouraged Trump to push back against New York governor Andrew Cuomo after Cuomo gave an emotional press conference during which he said New York was short 30,000 ventilators. In a White House meeting around this time, Kushner told people that Cuomo was being an alarmist. “I have all this data about ICU capacity. I’m doing my own projections, and I’ve gotten a lot smarter about this. New York doesn’t need all the ventilators,” Kushner said, according to a person present. During an interview on Hannity on March 26, Trump said: “I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators.”

Kushner declined to comment. But the White House press shop sent a statement from Fauci: “The interactions between Jared Kushner and Vice President Pence have added real value to the discussions at the coronavirus task force. They complement each other very well by providing information and opinions derived from shared and sometimes different perspectives. The bottom line and goal of both of them is to always get the facts straight and to act on and make decisions based on the best available evidence.”

Meanwhile, Trump is also consulting his longtime confidante Hope Hicks, whom Trump hired back in February (Hicks had been serving as chief communications officer for Fox Corp., the parent company of Fox News). Officially, Hicks reports to Kushner, but according to sources, Hicks is constantly with Trump. “Hope is in charge of Trump’s calendar, which means Jared is in charge of Trump’s schedule,” a Republican who deals with the White House said. Sources said Hicks prepares Trump for his daily task force briefings and advises him to act presidential. “She’s been trying to play to his better angles,” a former West Wing official said. (Given Trump’s recent blowups at reporters Yamiche Alcindor and Jim Acosta, Hicks’s influence has its limits.)

Hicks declined to comment. But Gidley, who is often in meetings with her and Trump, said: “No one has to give President Trump advice about being presidential—he is just a natural-born leader—and in this time of crisis, the country clearly sees the president is focused on the safety and security of the American people and always has their backs.”

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1245835666698768390
https://twitter.com/Johngcole/status/1245864422939062273

...the notion of the federal stockpile was it's supposed to be our stockpile, it's not supposed to be state stockpiles that they then use...

Also, Trump allowed the contract for maintaining the ventilator reserve to lapse, leaving many of them to be delivered out of order from storage now in the time of need. It never stops coming.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/politics/coronavirus-ventilators.html

His priorities: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1245489206769696770

Q: Mr. President, Seattle police have reported a surge in calls about domestic violence. A number of groups have raised concerns-

Trump: Mexican violence?

Q: Domestic violence.

Trump: Oh.

Figures.

The EU is a hybrid that crosses policy and implementation.

What do you mean here? Policy has to be implemented to be real, so perhaps a different word should substitute.

What was sold as a very technocratic body designed to do quite apolitical things – such as facilitate the convergence of technical standards – has now morphed into an arbiter of public policy. Indeed, key areas of political policy making such as a justice, social, and economic policy.Should prisoners vote? What is the maximum number of hours that can be worked? Should we discourage high-frequency trading?

One of the fundamental conceits of neoliberalism is that governance can be depoliticized through the elevation of technocratic management (some early 20th century socialists also theorized such a model). However, every demand on or effect of government is inherently political.

These areas of policy could not be questioned, because, well, that is the nature of the aquis! As an EU competence they could not be amended or scrapped by national lawmaking. This sits rather poorly with the notion of a Sovereign Parliament, able to lawfully enact anything that a simple majority of its lawmakers agree to.

EU policies and laws are substantively the products of member-state governments, not an edict from nowhere. The UK was perhaps the single most sovereign force in the Union over the others. In leaving you relinquish far more of this sovereignty to other countries than you had ever lost to regain.

You made it clear many times that your concerns were predicated on potential encroachment on future sovereignty. In a pandemic-stricken world where major governments order companies not to export medical products, the component jurisdictions of China and the United States have begun turning on their fellows out of paranoia and resource-hoarding, Russia, Hungary, and Turkey are full-blown dictatorships, and India and some other large countries are on their way, your thirst for nominal British sovereignty could be quenched with molten gold.

Nicola Sturgeon had a comment that I find characteristic of the mindset, and Scotland has a much more valid appeal to sovereignty to make in the context of the framework to which it is subject.

The case for full self-government ultimately transcends the issues of Brexit, of oil, of national wealth and balance sheets and of passing political fads and trends

But that's outright barmy. So much less the case then for fixation on the EU.

a completely inoffensive name

04-03-2020, 18:29

Bus driver gets mad over coughing on March 21st.

https://youtu.be/m9DqZxCR_SY

He developed symptoms 4 days later and is now dead.

I wonder why people would be so careless about such a dangerous disease.

https://youtu.be/uy7pbJ2jvMo

Death cult for profit.

Viking

04-03-2020, 20:56

Viking, can you explain what Sweden is doing right now, and why their leaders think social distancing is in their genes?

Have you read these?

In the Coronavirus Fight in Scandinavia, Sweden Stands Apart (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus.html?)
Lockdown, what lockdown? Sweden's unusual response to coronavirus (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52076293)

My take-away is that why and how the response is unusual can be broken down into three factors:

The government defers to the public health agency
There is a reluctance to involve the law; the population is often urged to do this or that instead of making it illegal not to
The legal measures that actually have been put in place are weaker than in many or most countries in a similar situation; such as the cap on how many people can legally gather

This is what the daily increase in confirmed cases for Sweden looks like, from the Johns Hopkin resource (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html):

https://i.imgur.com/LbKQ17e.jpg

Doesn't look very promising.

Sweden has about twice the population of Norway. Norway today has 59 deaths in total, while Sweden today added another 51 deaths for the day and has 333 deaths in total, more than five times as many.

There could be many explanations for these differences; one at the front of my mind is that the situation in Sweden currently is (or was) about to go off the rails.

Montmorency

04-03-2020, 23:33

For a more kumbaya vibe:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1PnOTMufAM

ReluctantSamurai

04-04-2020, 01:56

I wonder why people would be so careless about such a dangerous disease.

Because the Republican Party follows the advice of their moronic leader (not that the Dems are all that much better). Hey---It'll be like a miracle and just disappear:oops:

I wonder why this took so long to figure out:

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/3/21207310/coronavirus-new-york-hospitals-andrew-cuomo

If any had even bothered to read the joint China-WHO report back in February, one of the major reasons for bringing SARS-CoV-2 under control besides the lockdown, was that China flew 50,000 medical personnel from less endangered areas of the country to Wuhan.

And strong words from the former captain of BB-61 (USS Iowa) on the dismissal of Capt. Crozier of CVN-71 (USS Theodore Rooseveldt):

https://twitter.com/votevets/status/1246190191670448134

"It's important that we not allow a rogue WH to reach through the chain of command and allow a president to make things look good for himself and his political appointees. That's wrong. We need better political leadership. Thank you."
-Captain Larry Seaquist

ReluctantSamurai

04-04-2020, 14:37

Interesting follow-up on the relationship between China and the World Health Organization:

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/fighting-coronavirus-pandemic-chinas-influence-world-health-organization

There are other reasons for the proclivity of many international organizations to China: its sheer geopolitical weight and above all its capacity to say no, and in some cases to garner voting coalitions; in the UN system, the importance of its mandatory budget contribution (soon going to 10 % of this class), and the control that China now exercises through its higher profile in budget committees (so-called 5th Committee). And there is the never extinct hope that Beijing will contribute more in the future, and will be more flexible. In short, while the United States talks loudly but carries a small stick, China now speaks softly but carries a big stick throughout the UN system.

The question therefore becomes: how reliable WHO really is when major epidemics originate in China? WHO behaves in this case as a true and tried intergovernmental organization, not questioning its official sources, and therefore fails in this regard with its mission of information. What is worse in the present emergency: a number of governments and organizations either believed naively those claims, and the resulting reluctance to declare an epidemic and later a pandemic, or they chose to rely on this false comfort in order to delay difficult measures. We are not privy to the deliberations of the WHO’s Emergency Committee that met for the first time on January 23 – three days after China’s turnaround on the epidemic. But it seems impossible that its members, coming from the scientific community, would not have reflected on the declaratory gap that remained, even if it was not diplomatically useful to challenge China. In the same vein, WHO advised at that time against general travel and trade restrictions. There never was a word about the delay between December 31st and January 23, including the catastrophic failure to stop all Chinese New Year travel at home and abroad.

:inquisitive:

Pannonian

04-04-2020, 14:43

Interesting follow-up on the relationship between China and the World Health Organization:

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/fighting-coronavirus-pandemic-chinas-influence-world-health-organization

:inquisitive:

There are ways forward that involve mistrust of China even whilst working with the WHO and other organisations. Even as the Chinese government was spouting its BS, its neighbours, including Hong Kong (officially part of China), assumed it was BS and undertook anti-epidemic measures anyway. Destroying the WHO is worse than reforming it. It's still worthwhile. But we don't need to accept the best case scenarios it is trumpeting where there is suspicion that things are otherwise.

ReluctantSamurai

04-04-2020, 17:25

Destroying the WHO is worse than reforming it. It's still worthwhile.

Agreed. And I don't think the author of the article was trying to make a case for disbanding the WHO, either.

The last paragraph points to a direction forward, though no precise method was given on how to implement changes to the WHO:

The mutualization of efforts that WHO allows – even if it cannot achieve this by itself – and the dissemination of information, best practices and guidelines, remain irreplaceable. How to lessen the impact of a relentless authoritarian regime remains an issue. Perhaps, avoiding preemptive submission, and questioning official truths instead of pretending to heed them, would be a start.

Pannonian

04-04-2020, 18:16

Agreed. And I don't think the author of the article was trying to make a case for disbanding the WHO, either.

The last paragraph points to a direction forward, though no precise method was given on how to implement changes to the WHO:

That's what Hong Kong did, and Hong Kong's supposed to be part of China.

Montmorency

04-04-2020, 20:10

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZFTLIm3XWY

Japan street interview, on the Olympics postponement. To see what looks like a majority of pedestrians unmasked in Japan isn't a reassuring portent, is it?

(The one white interviewee looks like Pete Buttigieg)

At times like these (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/31/what-happens-when-a-citys-hospital-closes-without-warning-during-a-pandemic), the itch for systemic reform is inflamed.

The frontline in the battle against coronavirus has shifted a couple of hundred yards down the main road through the Kansas city of Wellington.

Two weeks ago, as the virus crept closer and people in other parts of the state started dying, the owners of the city’s only hospital thought it a good time to close down with just a few hours’ notice on the grounds the facility was losing money.

“We lost our hospital abruptly and without warning,” said Dr Lacie Gregory, a family practitioner in Wellington. “Even as the healthcare providers here in town, we did not hear that it was closing until it was a done deal. We received a text message from the director of nursing saying as of now there’s no hospital. So really, really unfortunate timing.”

This is the manifestation of that movie trope where a group is being chased by a monster, and those at the front breach a room or building only to lock it behind them, leaving the rest to scream and scrabble at the barrier as the threat closes in.

But beyond the small towns...

1. Trump wants one of his lawyers (https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-nominates-white-house-lawyer-to-oversee-coronavirus-business-loans-11585965870) oversee the disbursement of hundreds of billions in business loans.
2. New York State is paying (https://www.propublica.org/article/in-desperation-new-york-state-pays-up-to-15-times-the-normal-price-for-medical-equipment) a massive markup to buy equipment off the private market.

With the coronavirus outbreak creating an unprecedented demand for medical supplies and equipment, New York state has paid 20 cents for gloves that normally cost less than a nickel and as much as $7.50 each for masks, about 15 times the usual price. It’s paid up to $2,795 for infusion pumps, more than twice the regular rate. And $248,841 for a portable X-ray machine that typically sells for $30,000 to $80,000.

This payment data, provided by state officials, shows just how much the shortage of key medical equipment is driving up prices. Forced to venture outside their usual vendors and contracts, states and cities are paying exorbitant sums on a spot market ruled by supply and demand. Although New York’s attorney general has denounced excessive prices, and ordered merchants to stop overcharging people for hand sanitizers and disinfectant sprays, state laws against price gouging generally don’t apply to government purchases.

With little guidance from the Trump administration, competition among states, cities, hospitals and federal agencies is contributing to the staggering bill for fighting the pandemic, which New York has estimated will cost it $15 billion in spending and lost revenue. The bidding wars are also raising concerns that facilities with shallow pockets, like rural health clinics, won’t be able to obtain vital supplies.
[...]
In his daily press conferences, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has often complained about having to compete with states and the Federal Emergency Management Agency for personal protective equipment, and ventilators for patients in respiratory failure. “It’s like being on eBay with 50 other states bidding on a ventilator,” Cuomo told reporters on Tuesday. “And then, FEMA gets involved and FEMA starts bidding! And now FEMA is bidding on top of the 50! So FEMA is driving up the price. What sense does this make?”
3. New York State has to turn to the private market because the federal government is not releasing adequate supplies from its stockpiles and reserves.
4. The federal government (https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/you-need-to-look-at-this) in the first place is donating many of the supplies (https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-04-01/coronavirus-medical-equipment-goes-to-well-connected) it has purchased (from the private market) to private companies for resale at a profit.

The US has established an airbridge of flights from abroad to bring in supplies of masks, gowns, all the supplies we’re hearing are in short supply. But in answer to a question from Weijia Jiang of CBS News, the Admiral in charge of this effort explained that those supplies mainly are not going to FEMA or the states. They’re going to private sector distributors.
[...]
But this doesn’t sound like it’s just distribution. The Admiral seems pretty clear that this is being distributed as private sector transactions. As then Admiral put it: “That’s normally how things work, right? I’m not here to disrupt a [commercial] supply chain.”
[...]
Supplying these private sector distributors seems quite problematic for at least a couple reasons, to put it mildly. First is that there’s no clear mechanism to allocate these supplies on the basis of need based on a coherent national plan or framework. Secondly, it opens the door to massive profiteering. Even if companies aren’t technically gouging, that’s what bidding is. And you really can’t call this a legitimate private sector market if every state is having to bid with private companies to secure medical supplies during a historic national health emergency. The private sector rationale is also undermined if the US military has taken over a significant part of the fulfillment process.
5. So far (https://www.propublica.org/article/heres-why-florida-got-all-the-emergency-medical-supplies-it-requested-while-other-states-did-not), to the extent the Trump admin has not been outright withholding supplies according to some Soviet-style democidal logic, it has been distributing them according to per-capita quotas (i.e. fixed quantity) rather than need, which smacks of Soviet-style bureaucratic rigidity.

If New York State wants to indulge in a little mild expropriation of federal property, I wouldn't approve - but I would understand.* Banana republicanism has consequences.

It really is a choice between good government and a demolition derby (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/florida-unemployment-benefits-desantis-trump-rick-scott.html).

*See (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/new-york-coronavirus-cases-updates.html):

Governor Andrew Cuomo said Friday that he will sign an executive order directing the National Guard to take ventilators and personal protective equipment from New York facilities where the need isn’t urgent and redistribute them to places with higher need. “I apologize to those institutions,” Cuomo said. But, he added, “there could be several hundred excess ventilators in hospitals that don’t need them right now.” Of the possibility of lawsuits over the order, he said, “If they want to sue me for borrowing their excess ventilators to save lives, let them sue me.”

Interesting (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html): When average distance traveled fell below 2 miles (by county)

https://i.imgur.com/if57kTU.png

Interesting follow-up on the relationship between China and the World Health Organization:

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/fighting-coronavirus-pandemic-chinas-influence-world-health-organization

In short, while the United States talks loudly but carries a small stick, China now speaks softly but carries a big stick throughout the UN system.

Loudly and vehemently attacking and defunding transnational institutions isn't a great way to maintain influence over them.

There are ways forward that involve mistrust of China even whilst working with the WHO and other organisations. Even as the Chinese government was spouting its BS, its neighbours, including Hong Kong (officially part of China), assumed it was BS and undertook anti-epidemic measures anyway. Destroying the WHO is worse than reforming it. It's still worthwhile. But we don't need to accept the best case scenarios it is trumpeting where there is suspicion that things are otherwise.

A parallel perspective: rich countries with well-developed health infrastructure - and therefore independent expert cohorts - had the opportunity to seek out at least second opinions near at hand.

That's what Hong Kong did, and Hong Kong's supposed to be part of China.

On the other other hand, Hong Kong has good geopolitical and historical reasons to be more finely attuned than other countries to parsing mainland bullshit.

Montmorency

04-04-2020, 20:20

On New York (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/new-york-coronavirus-cases-updates.html):

Revealing the burden that the coronavirus has wrought on New York hospitals, on Thursday the state-designated coordinating authority for emergency medical technicians informed them that cardiac arrest patients should not be brought to the emergency room. According to NBC News, that order will only apply to older patients.

I too received the following yesterday:

https://i.imgur.com/O73jlXP.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/zea0tPN.jpg

The state has been putting out requests for volunteers daily for at least a week, and you can get all sorts of notices and tips by signing up to a city SMS feed. I think yesterday was the first time they used the Amber Alert system though.

ReluctantSamurai

04-04-2020, 21:14

On rural America:

Rick Whitson, emergency management director and fire chief of a county to the east of Wellington, drew scorn for a Facebook post denouncing what he called “panicked hysteria” around coronavirus which he said has “been around since the 60s”. “This is not the bubonic plague, and we are not digging mass graves and burning the bodies,” he wrote. “Unless there is a dramatic shift for the worst, (and I doubt it) when this is past we will reflect on it and shake our heads, realizing that it was a ridiculously disproportionate overall response to the threat.”

Besides spouting the same drivel as the Trump Administration, I would not be surprised if this individual never got passing grades in reading classes back in grade school. "Mr. Whitson, you need to drag your ass out of the local pub, go home, and do at least an hour of research on your computer. Pay particular attention to the number of infections and deaths around the world, pause..........and then realize this has all come to pass in just over two months." [My own personal quote]

And then, of course, there's this gem:

Riley County Commission Chairman Marvin Rodriguez is downplaying the coronavirus problem in the Manhattan area, saying that it’s not as big a problem here as elsewhere because there aren’t many Chinese people. [That's Manhattan, Kansas]

Rural America is in for a rude awakening, I'm afraid...:rolleyes:

Neither federal nor state law accounts for a situation in which government agencies at all levels are vying with each other for the same goods. “The government has in normal times a lot of things to protect it, including lengthy contracts and oversight,” said Justin Oberman, a former Transportation Security Administration official who now consults with businesses trying to navigate the federal procurement process. “In this case, raised voices may end up carrying the day.”

And being buddy-buddy with Trump is also a big plus. Just ask Governor DeSantis of Florida:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/02/has-trump-corrupted-coronavirus-supply-chain-schiff-wants-know/

An interesting take on what might occur in the "Red" Southern States of the US:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-unique-threat-south-young-people/609241/

Greyblades

04-04-2020, 21:47

With the complete lockdown by the CCP it is rare that we get even a glimpse of the inside of china's epidemic, one such glimpse has slipped through and it is a harrowing one:

https://old.reddit.com/r/MorbidReality/comments/fuv10s/translation_of_a_viral_and_quickly_banned_post_on/

April 4 is Qingming in China, a traditional holiday when Chinese people mourn the deceased. This year, we particularly mourn the people who suffered and died from Covid-19.

I translated a Weibo post that went viral on Chinese social media and unsurprisingly got banned quickly. This is one of the sites that salvaged the original text.

All of the morbid incidents mentioned in the post are true stories of human suffering in China. There are too many people hating on China right now and saying "China fucked us" and "Chinese deserve to die". But we are all victims; all those people who died and suffered shall never be forgotten.

I hope we will have compassion toward each other. I hope such calamity shall never repeat.

The woman who sat on the balcony knocking on the gong and screaming sick.

The girl who chased the hearse late at night shouting "Mama".

The boy who read The Origin of Political Order in the quarantine camp where a thousand people shared one bathroom.

The man who drove the truck on the highway with no home to return.

The person who sat died with his head held by his family waiting for the hearse.

The person who was starved to death in isolation.

The pregnant woman who spent 200,000 RMB and was eventually given up for treatment because she could not afford it.

The father who dug himself a grave and hung himself in secret, afraid of spreading the virus to his family.

The father who jumped off a bridge as he had nowhere to seek treatment and was in fear of infecting his wife and child.

The 90-year-old mother who queued in the hospital for five days and five nights waiting for a bed for her 60-year-old son.

The person who shared on a Weibo forum: "My family has just passed away and I have a vacant bed in the hospital. I hope I can help you."

The man who first scolded others howling for help as it soured his mood, and shortly howled for help in the same way.

The senior citizen who learned to use Weibo in order to ask for help and posted “hello”.

The woman who covered her mouth with a scarf when being checked by the police, and cried in shame because she was unable to buy a mask.

The old man who used an orange peel as a mask.

The person whose father, mother, and grandparents all died, and had to report himself to the civil affairs bureau alone.

The worker who donated all his masks which were paid as his wages.

The person who wrote "calmly face death" and "It's time to sacrifice myself".

The whistleblower doctor who wrote "Can, Understand" and printed his fingerprints with red ink on the letter of admonition from the Wuhan police. Then he died, twice.

The construction worker who built the Huoshenshan Hospital without much sleep or rest for weeks, but was treated like the plague by his fellow villagers upon his return to the village.

The leukemia patient who could not get out of the city to travel to Beijing for a bone marrow transplant and wanted euthanasia to stop the insufferable pain.

The man dressed himself in a shroud who collapsed to the ground as he failed to get a bed in the hospital.

The patient who could not do hemodialysis due to quarantine, begged to be let out at the gate of his condo community, and was refused. He then jumped off his condo. His body was only pulled away six hours after the suicide.

The man who was forced to write "must wear a mask" for 100 times in the police station as a punishment.

The man who was slapped to the point of bleeding because he was not wearing a mask.

The man who screamed “hungry”, “I am going to starve to death”, “my wife and children were starving at home”, and “presumably your stomach is full”.

The beekeeper who was unable to transfer his bees due to the epidemic and eventually committed suicide.

The coal miner who traveled on the road for 13 days in order to return to work, walked more than 700 kilometers, and slept under the bridge and on the grass.

The man who had no place to seek treatment, feared to infect his wife and child, wrote his suicide note, and wanted to donate his body for scientific research. He wrote, “I hope people in the world would no longer suffer from illness”. He then left his key and cellphone and ran away from home, and eventually died on the way back to his childhood hometown.

The man who wrote, "My body will be donated to the nation. But how about my wife?"

The son who carried his mother on his back and walked for three hours seeking help because of the ban on cars.

The mother who entrusted her newborn to the hospital and wrote, "I spent my only savings on giving birth to this child and I have nowhere to go."

The homemaker who climbed down from the 10th floor in order to buy groceries.

The child who lived with his grandpa's corpse for five days and covered his grandpa with a quilt.

The recovered patient who returned home after being cured, found that his entire family had died, and hanged himself on the roof.

The man in his 60s who bought supplies, cooked, washed dishes, and cleaned the kitchen all by himself for more than 60 policemen at the police station. He sobbed in the corridor at the brink of total exhaustion.

The man who had been wandering on the streets of Wuhan for more than 20 days and half of his hairs turned grey.

The student who didn't have the money to buy a mobile phone to take online classes and chugged his mother's medication for mental illness.

The 25-year-old journalist who resigned from CCTV (China’s state media) and live-streamed the dire situation in Wuhan at the most dangerous time. He recited this famous poem while waiting by his apartment door before the police was going to break in and take him away, “The nation is strong when the youngsters are strong; the nation is weak when the youngsters are weak”.

The woman who shouted "all are fake" from her condo during the visit by the party leaders.

The firefighter who wept when he salvaged the bodies of three children from the collapsed Quanzhou Hotel.

The author who wrote 60 diary entries about life during the city lockdown, whose social media account was banned several times, and who was scolded and abused by trolls.

The 8 year old innocent kid who followed the queue to collect the ashes of his parents.

The person who calmly reasoned with the government official, stated that the virus should be contained but people also need to eat, and sighed softly.

The doctor who was appreciated by patients, was reprimanded by the hospital administrators for wearing a mask, and died after being infected with the virus.

The person who said, "If I knew we would end up like this, I would have told everyone everywhere, no matter the consequences".

a completely inoffensive name

04-05-2020, 06:53

This past week in my county there was another run on all the stores as conservatives started panic buying after Trump shifted his tone and posted the 100k-250k death toll.
Now they are taking pictures of the empty shelves they created and saying that under the current capitalistic (and Republican) local government the empty shelves offer a prediction of socialism under the Democrats.

I swear California conservatives are just becoming children in their rhetoric. My life before COVID-19:
"Why do the cities always approve chain restaurants and the mom and pops struggle?"
"Why do we need 6 McDonalds for one town?"
"Why did we approve for a giant outdoor mall in 2007 when there are cheaper malls directly to the east and high end malls directly to the west?"
"Why are we building more housing, there should be penalties for more development."

Hi, let's build more housing so we can build the demand for the mom and pop shops, cause right now we have a lot of empty commercial development that never recovered from the Great Recession. We can increase sales tax by 1 cent to cover wear and tear on the roads and use mixed zoning to allow for commercial/residential blends that cut down on amount of empty spots, and reduces transport for the elderly which make up a significant % of the population here. We should invest more in ourselves to attract wealthier residents that are willing to spend more on local food than chain stores.

"SOCIALIST! I DON'T LIKE THAT, WHY DOES THE CITY HAVE TO CHANGE TO FIX MY PROBLEMS? JUST FIX IT!"

a completely inoffensive name

04-05-2020, 07:02

Forgot why I came here. Here is some good advice I picked up from the vlogbrothers on maintaining your mental health during this time:

These tips, from Dr. Bepi Raviola, are taken from Partners in Health’s website (https://www.pih.org/article/10-mental-health-tips-coronavirus-social-distancing).

1. Social distancing does not mean emotional distancing; use technology to connect.

2. Keep clear routines and schedule, seven days a week, but don’t go overboard.
3. Exercise and physical activity, daily if possible.
4. Learning and intellectual engagement—books, reading, limited internet.
5. Positive family time—working to counter negativity.
6. Alone time. Outside if possible, but inside is okay, too.
7. Focused meditation and relaxation.
8. Bathe daily, if possible.
9. Remember the things that you really enjoy doing, that you can do in this situation, and find a way to do them.
10. Limit exposure to TV and internet news; choose small windows and then find ways to cleanse yourself of it.

The question I ask myself when I am feeling isolated, overwhelmed, or scared: What on this list can I do right now?
Another thing I tell myself: Helping others--whether that’s getting the kids through e-school or reaching out to friends to minimize their isolation--gives me a sense of meaning and purpose that helps me through the day.
The other thing I tell myself: Doing things on this list IS BEING PRODUCTIVE. Taking care of myself and others is the productivity that matters most right now.

ReluctantSamurai

04-05-2020, 14:26

While Mr Putin has made national addresses and posed for photos, he has left many of the tough announcements about lockdowns and other restrictions to others. This is a deliberate strategy to "shift responsibility", according to Mathieu Boulegue. "[Putin can say] that if your region gets a massive outbreak, it's not the fault of my government, it's the fault of your region. So blame your [regional] government," he said.

Now where have we heard this rhetoric before...:eyebrows:

Gotta love this scuttlebutt tho':

"It's OK, we drink vodka. We already have the medication."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-05/coronavirus-is-russia-lying-about-its-infection-rate/12118056

a completely inoffensive name

04-05-2020, 21:35

ReluctantSamurai

04-05-2020, 21:49

I enjoyed the Queen's speech today.

I just hope that when I'm 94 yrs old (if I'm lucky enough), I can speak in such an articulate manner. Love the accent, and the message.

Wish I could hear something similar from an American leader.

If you're referring to the Big Cheese, that ain't gonna happen. He's more worried about his image and the Stock Market, than the American people. Governor Cuomo of NY is going to be about as close as we here are going to get, although "the woman in Michigan" (Gov. Gretchen Whitmer), gives daily updates at her presser, and does her best to keep up the hopes of Michiganders that she is on top of things, and that we'll get through. (sidenote: she also has a great sense of humor in that someone gave her a t-shirt with "That Woman in Michigan" printed on the front, which she promptly wore at her next televised presser~D)

ReluctantSamurai

04-05-2020, 22:31

You just knew this was coming:

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/austria-ski-resort-ischgl-coronavirus-intl/index.html

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/austrian-officials-may-be-sued-over-coronavirus-response-ski-resort-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-04/nsw-health-defends-ruby-princess-again-over-coronavirus-outbreak/12121512

Montmorency

04-06-2020, 01:56

Perceptive take on ongoing sporadic toilet paper shortages even after "panic buying" ought to have subsided: baseline consumer demand has increased. That is, people who spend more time at home see a corresponding increase in TP usage at home, which translates to a higher demand.

I wouldn't have figured this out on my own, since I don't use much toilet paper in general.

Holy rollers.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/how-a-prayer-meeting-at-a-french-megachurch-may-have-led-to-scores-of-coronavirus-deaths/2020/04/01/fe478ca0-7396-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html
https://twitter.com/ErickFernandez/status/1246794240904044544
[Let's not forget the origin of South Korea's epidemic]

An American fairy tale.
https://twitter.com/rmayemsinger/status/1246531751775580161

Historical note (https://warontherocks.com/2020/03/poor-leadership-during-times-of-disease-malta-and-the-plague-of-1813/) on the plague of 1813 in British-administered Malta, which killed 5% of the population and diminished Malta's position in Mediterranean shipping.

The Mediterranean also employed an old, familiar solution to defend against disease: quarantine. A port needed the proper implementation of quarantine rules, and the administration of a lazaretto — a series of buildings designed to house possibly infected goods, people, and ships until deemed safe. Malta was fortunate enough to have a good record when it came to its quarantine practices. Its capital, Valletta, had facilities that for decades held an institutional reputation for quality and safety within the Mediterranean. This helped allow trade to continue despite years of war and economic hardship.

To continue that reputation, the British administration created a position: the superintendent of the quarantine. The first person appointed to the job, and subsequently the first to fail in leadership, was William Eton. It was not that Eton was incompetent at his job — by most accounts he was a capable quarantine administrator. The problem was he spent as much time conspiring against his superior, and trying to take his job, as he did executing his official duties. When he failed to get a promotion, Eton left the islands in 1802, claiming ill health, but promised to return.

Eton never returned to Malta. This in and of itself is not noteworthy but for one crucial factor: he never lost his job. Inexplicably, Eton retained his position as an absentee superintendent of the quarantine, despite attempts by Malta’s civil administration to have him removed. It was not until nine years following his departure when Eton was finally replaced by William Pym in late 1811. Unfortunately, Pym only spent a few months on Malta before asking for a leave of absence due to poor health. As a result, for more than a decade the most important position when it came to the health of Malta remained vacant. This was a critical gap in leadership and a major failure by those responsible for assigning the position.
[...]
Ultimately, what stopped the plague in Malta was the adoption of measures similar to, and in some cases more extreme than, what modern governments are trying for COVID-19. People were not allowed to move between towns or districts in a city without explicit written permission, some towns were isolated by military force, and offenses like hiding your own illness or concealing others’ illness became punishable by death. When the disease finally disappeared from Malta a year later, the death toll was around 4,500, approximately five percent of the total population.

Governor Cuomo of NY is going to be about as close as we here are going to get, although "the woman in Michigan" (Gov. Gretchen Whitmer), gives daily updates at her presser, and does her best to keep up the hopes of Michiganders that she is on top of things, and that we'll get through. (sidenote: she also has a great sense of humor in that someone gave her a t-shirt with "That Woman in Michigan" printed on the front, which she promptly wore at her next televised presser~D)

If you want to apportion credit where it's due, let's all remember that Inslee is quite possibly the only governor in the Union whose handling of the crisis could be called outright competent.

Montmorency

04-06-2020, 04:36

More on the federal government interdicting shipments of supplies purchased by the states, and even France and Germany (which a German official has called an act of piracy). Why and whither? Hopefully there is a good explanation for this. The bar for "good" being, doesn't rationalize anda jaleo.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/whats-up-with-the-feds-seizing-ppe-shipments-to-states-and-hospitals
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/4/1934207/-Kushner-Using-Federal-Govt-To-Confiscate-N95-s-Bought-By-American-States-AND-European-Allies

Retired Lt. Gen Russell Honore on federal procurement and emergency response practices.
https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/1245906088911949826

Greyblades

04-06-2020, 05:51

I enjoyed the Queen's speech today. A brief but needed reminder that we have to do what we need to do, to support those on the front lines, and remember that better days are ahead.
Wish I could hear something similar from an American leader.

There are plenty of examples of such speeches on both sides of the isle in america, the thing missing isnt wording, its a lack of trust in the speaker not to be lying through his teeth from people who align against him. Partisanship poisons everything, the royal family spend an inordinant amount of effort keeping themselves unstained from flavour of the month divisions exactly so they can do things like this and have it hold water with most everyone.

Its why I would never support replacing them with some president, why megan markel was so unacceptable in her posturing and why I am increasingly appauled when I see similar figures in the churches like the archbishop of Canterbury or the pope "marry the present" with political side taking.

ReluctantSamurai

04-06-2020, 05:54

Retired Lt. Gen Russell Honore on federal procurement and emergency response practices

It just makes so much sense when the Ltg. explains how things get done. The military is an organization that is built around logistics. Whether armies in the field, or fleets at sea, no campaign can be prosecuted without understanding who needs what, and how does it get there in the best possible time. I can see legal battles coming over this when things settle down......

quite possibly the only governor in the Union whose handling of the crisis could be called outright competent.

I'd also include Gov. Mike DeWine, GOP governor of Ohio. He declared a state of emergency on 5 March, and was one of the first governors to close schools and cancel sporting events.

There are plenty of examples of such speeches on both sides of the isle in america

Name me one outside of Cuomo, Inslee, or DeWine that are government leaders:inquisitive: I would venture a guess that noone from Capital Hill has yet to step foot inside a major hospital to see whats actually going on in the trenches, because if they had, they'd shut the f@#$ up and get to work helping these people instead of price gouging....

a completely inoffensive name

04-06-2020, 07:46

There are plenty of examples of such speeches on both sides of the isle in america, the thing missing isnt wording, its a lack of trust in the speaker not to be lying through his teeth from people who align against him. Partisanship poisons everything, the royal family spend an inordinant amount of effort keeping themselves unstained from flavour of the month divisions exactly so they can do things like this and have it hold water with most everyone.

Its why I would never support replacing them with some president, why megan markel was so unacceptable in her posturing and why I am increasingly appauled when I see similar figures in the churches like the archbishop of Canterbury or the pope "marry the present" with political side taking.

Link me examples of those American speeches you mention.

Pannonian

04-06-2020, 08:22

It just makes so much sense when the Ltg. explains how things get done. The military is an organization that is built around logistics. Whether armies in the field, or fleets at sea, no campaign can be prosecuted without understanding who needs what, and how does it get there in the best possible time. I can see legal battles coming over this when things settle down......

Cf. Lucius Aemilius Paullus Macedonicus on being praised for being able to organise Games at extremely short notice.

ReluctantSamurai

04-06-2020, 11:51

Pannonian

~:confused:

Greyblades

04-06-2020, 12:38

Name me one outside of Cuomo, Inslee, or DeWine that are government leaders:inquisitive:

Link me examples of those American speeches you mention.

I went to pull up a list of speeches starting with trump and biden on the current one and previous presidents during disasters and I cannot say I was entirely correct, at least not in terms of brevity.

The sentiments of "we have to do what we need to do, to support those on the front lines, and remember that better days are ahead" is embedded in politics american and otherwise, name a president and with few exceptions I'll name at least 1 inaugeral and 3 state of the unions containing at least one of them. They are however often embedded in proposals, declarations of action, congratulation, self and otherwise and in sone cases swipes at the actions of others.

Wordy buggers the lot of them.

Specifically to the coronavirus we have Trump (https://www.vox.com/2020/3/11/21176001/trump-coronavirus-speech-travel-ban-transcript):

"From the beginning of time nations and people have faced unforeseen challenges including large scale and very dangerous health threats. This is the way it always was and always will be. It only matters how you respond, and we are responding with great speed and professionalism."

[...]

"If we are vigilant, and we can reduce the chance of infection, which we will, we will significantly impede the transmission of the virus. The virus will not have a chance against us. No nation is more prepared or more resilient than the United States. We have the best economy, the most advanced health care, and the most talented doctors, scientists, and researchers anywhere in the world. We are all in this together. We must put politics aside, stop the partisanship, and unify together as one nation and one family."

"As history has proven time and time again, Americans always rise to the challenge and overcome adversity. Our future remains brighter than anyone could imagine. Acting with compassion and love, we will heal the sick, care for those in need, help our fellow citizens, and emerge from this challenge stronger and more unified than ever before. God bless you, and God bless America. Thank you."

Biden (https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/joe-biden-youtube-speech-transcript-on-coronavirus-march-23):

"As Americans, we may be physically apart, but we are truly all in this together. And you know it. Let me say something right up front. When we’ve stood as one, this nation has never ever been defeated when we’ve been together, and we’re not going to be defeated now. The pandemic of 1918, the Great Depression, two world wars, we overcame them all. And out of each crisis, we emerged stronger and we will again. This new enemy may be unseen, but we have the tools, the expertise, and most importantly the spirit to defeat it. "

[...]

"But also those who we don’t talk about much. The grocery store worker stocking the shelf, the mail and package carriers, the workers manufacturing gear we need to keep delivery trucks on the road, cooking meals to deliver, tending to our elderly loved ones. The journalists who keep us up to date and hold us accountable as leaders. The government officials working on this problem, and so many more. They’re putting all of it on the line for all of us. And we need to give them all the help they need. And now, they need help now. We need to be sure we never forget what they’ve done, because they’re doing a great deal."

"Deep in the heart of every American, I think there burns a flame. It’s an inheritance from every generation of Americans that has come before us. That’s why we have overcome every crisis we have ever faced before. It’s what makes this nation so special, why we stand apart. That flame is not going to be extinguished in this moment. If our leadership does its part, the American people will do more than their part. Because here’s the simple truth. Ordinary, hardworking Americans have never, ever, ever, ever, ever let their country down. So we need to get moving, move faster. This is the United States of America. There’s not a single thing we cannot do if we do it together. God bless you all those who are fighting this virus. May God protect you and may God protect our troops. Thank you."

Obama (https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/11/15/remarks-president-after-surveying-damage-hurricane-sandy)on sandy:

Across the board, what we’ve seen is cooperation and a spirit of service. And for the first responders who are here, the police officers, the firefighters, the EMS folks, the sanitation workers who sometimes don’t get credit but have done heroic work, we are so grateful to you because you exemplify what America is all about.
[...]
And during difficult times like this, we’re reminded that we’re bound together and we have to look out for each other. And a lot of the things that seem important, the petty differences melt away, and we focus on what binds us together and that we as Americans are going to stand with each other in their hour of need.
[...]
And that spirit and sense of togetherness and looking out for one another, that's what's going to carry us through this tragedy. It's not going to be easy. There's still going to be, believe it or not, some complaints over the next several months. Not everybody is going to be satisfied.
[...]
I'm very proud of you, New York. You guys are tough. You bounce back, just as America always bounces back. The same is going to be true this time out.

Bush (https://thinkprogress.org/full-text-bushs-katrina-speech-37aa6dd3f6f/)on katrina:

"In the life of this nation, we have often been reminded that nature is an awesome force, and that all life is fragile. We are the heirs of men and women who lived through those first terrible winters at Jamestown and Plymouth “¦ who rebuilt Chicago after a great fire, and San Francisco after a great earthquake “¦ who reclaimed the prairie from the dust bowl of the 1930s. Every time, the people of this land have come back from fire, flood, and storm to build anew — and to build better than what we had before. Americans have never left our destiny to the whims of nature — and we will not start now.

"These trials have also reminded us that we are often stronger than we know — with the help of grace and one another. They remind us of a hope beyond all pain and death — a God who welcomes the lost to a house not made with hands. And they remind us that we are tied together in this life, in this nation — and that the despair of any touches us all."

[...]

And that spirit and sense of togetherness and looking out for one another, that's what's going to carry us through this tragedy. It's not going to be easy. There's still going to be, believe it or not, some complaints over the next several months. Not everybody is going to be satisfied. I have to tell you the insurance companies and some of the other private sector folks who are involved in this, we need you to show some heart and some spirit in helping people rebuild as well.

But when I hear the story of the Moores and I hear about Lieutenant Gallagher, that's what makes me confident that we're going to be able to rebuild. I'm very proud of you, New York. You guys are tough. You bounce back, just as America always bounces back. The same is going to be true this time out

Bush (https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/gwbush911addresstothenation.htm)after 9/11:

A great people has been moved to defend a great nation. Terrorist attacks can shake the foundations of our biggest buildings, but they cannot touch the foundation of America. These acts shatter steel, but they cannot dent the steel of American resolve. America was targeted for attack because we're the brightest beacon for freedom and opportunity in the world. And no one will keep that light from shining. Today, our nation saw evil -- the very worst of human nature -- and we responded with the best of America. With the daring of our rescue workers, with the caring for strangers and neighbors who came to give blood and help in any way they could.
[...]
Tonight, I ask for your prayers for all those who grieve, for the children whose worlds have been shattered, for all whose sense of safety and security has been threatened. And I pray they will be comforted by a Power greater than any of us, spoken through the ages in Psalm 23:

Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I fear no evil for you are with me.

This is a day when all Americans from every walk of life unite in our resolve for justice and peace. America has stood down enemies before, and we will do so this time. None of us will ever forget this day, yet we go forward to defend freedom and all that is good and just in our world.

Reagan (https://history.nasa.gov/reagan12886.html)after the Challenger explosion:

We've grown used to wonders in this century. It's hard to dazzle us. But for 25 years the United States space program has been doing just that. We've grown used to the idea of space, and perhaps we forget that we've only just begun. We're still pioneers. They, the members of the Challenger crew, were pioneers.

And I want to say something to the schoolchildren of America who were watching the live coverage of the shuttle's takeoff. I know it is hard to understand, but sometimes painful things like this happen. It's all part of the process of exploration and discovery. It's all part of taking a chance and expanding man's horizons. The future doesn't belong to the fainthearted; it belongs to the brave. The Challenger crew was pulling us into the future, and we'll continue to follow them.

Trump (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/the-inaugural-address/)'s inaugeral speech:

We, the citizens of America, are now joined in a great national effort to rebuild our country and to restore its promise for all of our people.Together, we will determine the course of America and the world for years to come.We will face challenges. We will confront hardships. But we will get the job done.

[...]

Do not let anyone tell you it cannot be done. No challenge can match the heart and fight and spirit of America. We will not fail. Our country will thrive and prosper again. We stand at the birth of a new millennium, ready to unlock the mysteries of space, to free the Earth from the miseries of disease, and to harness the energies, industries and technologies of tomorrow. A new national pride will stir our souls, lift our sights, and heal our divisions.

It is time to remember that old wisdom our soldiers will never forget: that whether we are black or brown or white, we all bleed the same red blood of patriots, we all enjoy the same glorious freedoms, and we all salute the same great American Flag. And whether a child is born in the urban sprawl of Detroit or the windswept plains of Nebraska, they look up at the same night sky, they fill their heart with the same dreams, and they are infused with the breath of life by the same almighty Creator.

ReluctantSamurai

04-06-2020, 14:14

Trump? Seriously???

The virus will not have a chance against us. No nation is more prepared or more resilient than the United States.

We are all in this together. We must put politics aside, stop the partisanship, and unify together as one nation and one family.

Acting with compassion and love, we will heal the sick, care for those in need, help our fellow citizens

And you hold up this drivel from Trump as something equivalent to the graceful message put forth by the Queen?:inquisitive:

Biden's quote.....meh, stock response from someone running for the presidency.

As for the rest of those quotes....we are talking about the here and now. THIS disaster dwarfs all of those.

Jeez, why not quote Kennedy, FDR, and Abe Lincoln while you're at it?:juggle:

Pannonian

04-06-2020, 14:26

Pannonian

~:confused:

During his settlement of Greek affairs following Pydna, Paullus organised Games that had been postponed because of the conflict. Greek ambassadors praised his ability in organising such extensive Games at such short notice. He replied, if you're able to organise an army and lead it on campaign, organising something like the Olympics (or whatever it was) was easy in comparison.

ReluctantSamurai

04-06-2020, 14:48

Greek ambassadors praised his ability in organising such extensive Games at such short notice. He replied, if you're able to organise an army and lead it on campaign, organising something like the Olympics (or whatever it was) was easy in comparison.

Okay:shrug:

I could think of many more current examples that address the far more complex task of getting 50 states to work together as one, like this:

https://prospect.org/health/way-won-america-s-economic-breakthrough-world-war-ii/

More fundamentally, a spirit developed within each business enterprise to produce better than its competitors to serve the country. In his fireside chats, Roosevelt explained to the people over and over again why their productive genius had to be mobilized to win the war. Buoyed by the strong morale the president fostered, business and labor worked together to get the "E-for-excellence" citations that he spread around. It was not just producing more than your competitor, it was producing more than you did the previous quarter, and the quarter before that.

In sum, one almost totally forgotten lesson of the war is that deep government involvement doesn't have to mean a command economy. Despite the mobilization, large segments of the economy were unaffected by the controls. No one was told where to move or work. Production for the government was still freely entered into by producers and government in a contractual arrangement; and business argued about those contracts all the time. Private property remained predominant throughout the country and still there were profits. In the World War II experience, the things we revere about capitalism the parts that spur energy, efficiency, and entrepreneurial skill were still in place. What the war did was tap that energy, not constrain it.

Obviously, Fearless Leader didn't do his history lessons in school.:shame:

Gilrandir

04-06-2020, 16:03

Trump's inaugeral speech:

An auger is a drilling device, or drill bit, used for making holes in wood or in the ground. It usually includes a rotating helical screw blade called a 'flighting' to act as a screw conveyor to remove the drilled out material. The rotation of the blade causes the material to move out of the hole being drilled.

ReluctantSamurai

04-06-2020, 16:41

Oh, but I think he got it right...:eyebrows:

I think you could describe Trump's presidency very well using terms like a 'screw conveyor' used to extract material; which in his case is $$$. And drilling holes in the ground perfectly describes how Trump is dealing with this pandemic, because there will be plenty of holes to drill after this is over, to bury the dead.

:rolleyes:

Greyblades

04-06-2020, 18:32

Trump? Seriously???

And you hold up this drivel from Trump as something equivalent to the graceful message put forth by the Queen?:inquisitive:

Biden's quote.....meh, stock response from someone running for the presidency.

As for the rest of those quotes....we are talking about the here and now. THIS disaster dwarfs all of those.

Jeez, why not quote Kennedy, FDR, and Abe Lincoln while you're at it?:juggle:

I might as well, that was my point: the sentiment is ubiquitous in american speechmaking.

Your response also reinforces my previous point that whether the sentiment lands is reliant on the partisanship.

That the queen maintains impartiality means that her expressing the sentiment actually gets through and is appreciated by the majority of the population.

ReluctantSamurai

04-06-2020, 19:17

Your response also reinforces my previous point that whether the sentiment lands is reliant on the partisanship.

I detest both Republicans and Democrats. I just detest Republicans more. I can praise GOP Gov. DeWine of Ohio without a shred of partisanship. He put the people and businesses of his state before politics, rather than toe the party line.

As to the Queen, when you watched her speak, you just KNEW she meant every word. That's what transcends politics, for me, not that she's basically just a royalty figurehead.

Seamus Fermanagh

04-06-2020, 19:39

Effective Rhetoric, as has long been codified, requires an appeal on three levels: Pathos, Logos, and Ethos.

If I am charitable, Trump often (though not consistently) expresses the right kind of feelings (we'll get through this, we are tougher than this, etc.) So did Elizabeth II.

Charitably...okay, very charitably, Trump often (though only when prepped and not wandering ad lib) gets the logical stuff correct. But he misses and retracts etc. a lot to get there. Elizabeth kept it simple and did it in one take.

The last quality is ethos -- the appeal of ethical behavior and credibility. Elizabeth has Trump on the gravitas meter by at least a couple orders of magnitude.

Double reverse spin backwards overhead slam dunk by Windsor while Trump stands confused at the top of the key.

Pannonian

04-06-2020, 19:49

Effective Rhetoric, as has long been codified, requires an appeal on three levels: Pathos, Logos, and Ethos.

If I am charitable, Trump often (though not consistently) expresses the right kind of feelings (we'll get through this, we are tougher than this, etc.) So did Elizabeth II.

Charitably...okay, very charitably, Trump often (though only when prepped and not wandering ad lib) gets the logical stuff correct. But he misses and retracts etc. a lot to get there. Eligravitaszabeth kept it simple and did it in one take.

The last quality is ethos -- the appeal of ethical behavior and credibility. Elizabeth has Trump on the gravitas meter by at least a couple orders of magnitude.

Double reverse spin backwards overhead slam dunk by Windsor while Trump stands confused at the top of the key.

She's also part of the generation that the allied nations revere as the greatest in their history. While Trump references WWII as the reasoning for some foreign policy crud or other, she was a servicewoman in it, famously pushing to serve as soon as she was old enough.

ReluctantSamurai

04-06-2020, 21:15

Double reverse spin backwards overhead slam dunk by Windsor while Trump stands confused at the top of the key.

:bounce:

Pannonian

04-06-2020, 21:21

Our PM is in ITU now. We're probably looking at a succession.

Montmorency

04-06-2020, 21:24

Another data resource, this one a visual California dashboard. I wonder if these are available for other states.
https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Public?:embed=y&:display_count=no&:showVizHome=no

Link me examples of those American speeches you mention.

He's right, the Queen's speech comprises utterly banal, and universal, platitudes. But in politics ethos is typically not about the content of speech, but on how and when it is delivered and who delivers it. Even a stock speech can have an impact in the right context, and minimalism can be easier to get right than high-minded novelties.

But what gets me is that he singles out the pope for partisanship when the pope is conservative as they come for the general society and has basically maintained all the Church's typical practices and institutions. The sitting pope is hated by the Catholic far-right for not being the kind of reactionary to renounce the Lateran Treaty and Vatican II, redeclare integral sovereignty over the Papal States, and sufficiently terrorize the wimmenz and gays.

I'd also include Gov. Mike DeWine, GOP governor of Ohio. He declared a state of emergency on 5 March, and was one of the first governors to close schools and cancel sporting events.

I'm not saying this as a way to denigrate Cuomo's performance in particular. There's a limit to how far and fast governors will go on a limb without federal support. Compared to Trump and some of the Republicans vying for worst response on the planet, benefiting from media connections by virtue of being NY governor and a brother to a national anchor, and a measure of gravitas and projected confidence - I don't underestimate the symbolic and communicative aspects of the job - he looks golden to a lot of viewers. To my knowledge he has been an effective administrator of NY emergency logistics. And I suppose he must have something to do with facilitating or maintaining the ongoing vast NY advantage in testing that no state remains even close to touching (though we've dropped below 20% of national cumulative tests), but I don't want to lend too much credit while I still don't know exactly how this testing gap came to be.

But, like basically everyone else in the world through February and early March, he was diffident and muddled on messaging and action out of anxiety about generating panic or economic disruption. Ultimately that has to count as an absolute mark against him and others, no matter how (or whether) they subsequently turned a corner. (Also I can't help but note his winning a hard-fought state austerity budget a few days ago, that cut Medicaid and public hospitals. Hard to swallow as someone to the left of Cuomo.)

As long as we're counting governors who have done a relatively-decent job, include California's Gavin Newsom. As I recall Florida's de Santis announced a state of emergency on March 1, right after Inslee, a moment which he subsequently squandered utterly by leaning into Trumpian cult politics and doing all that he could to let the virus run wild, including keeping the beaches open and suppressing local control of stricter lockdowns. Hawaii and California were the next to declare states of emergency, on Mar. 4. I don't know much about Hawaii's response other than their noteworthy travel restrictions on the mainland, but California did initiate significant social distancing policies right away - faster than New York.