Coronavirus / COVID-19

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4D2jRkcH34


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-2oJzVqrxg


This guy began to report about this outbreak turning into a pandemic since last month. He mentions Thailand still accepting travellers from China. South Korea also still accepts travellers from China. It seems that the South Korean president is hoping for Xi Jinping to visit in order to raise the South Korean president's popularity and win the general election. The trade volume between the two countries is massive. Also, the South Korean president is pro-Communist Party of China. Many Koreans demand the removal of the South Korean president.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oKV5MK2bdw

And this guy talks about the economic impact.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bm44WVCqaRs


According to some of the whistleblowers in Wuhan, 5 million Wuhan people evacuated the city before the quarantine. The guy in the video below is one of the first whistleblowers after the doctors got arrested to hide the outbreak.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va6qptJzlyc

[Hooahguy]

Watching the Trump press conference about it today, and I am fairly confident that the US is not ready for this should it hit the US in large numbers.

[rory_20_uk]

People are infectious about 2 weeks before they show any symptoms. Symptoms are basically flu-like. And for half the world it is winter.

It is spread via the airborne route. One sneeze can go 8 metres and the droplets stay airborne for 10 minutes. Masks do little really. Slightly better on someone whose got it.

Airborne diseases can not realistically be stopped. Ebola was close contact and that took ages. Hell, HIV is only close contact of bodily fluids and we can't block that spreading!

Every country is doing lip service to the disease. Because doing something that works would cripple the country economically: shut all non essential flights and ships. Close all borders for all but essential travel. Decontaminate things that have to cross the border. Hell, probably have internal borders as well in all but the smallest countries. Forcibly quarantine everyone who has come near an infected person until they are cleared by one (preferably two or more) lab tests.

If it gets bad (and I really hope it doesn't) many will die - hopefully just in the thousands. Mainly the old and sick so frankly no biggie to society. There are not enough ventilators or trained staff to deal with the patients - let alone proper kit to protect the staff (who would be insane to work in anything less than a proper airtight suit) - are they to be forced in at gun point to work?

I do pity the CDC et al. 99.99% of the time it will be a different case of the sniffles. And they will be pilloried for making such a fuss. But who knows if or when it could mutate to something far more deadly and then they'll be crucified for not doing more earlier (even though they can hardly mobilise the National Guard).

~:smoking:

[ReluctantSamurai]

many will die - hopefully just in the thousands. Mainly the old and sick so frankly no biggie to society

Really?:inquisitive:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate


Eighty-seven percent of patients were aged 30 to 79 years (38,680 cases). This age-group was the most affected by a wide margin, followed by ages 20 to 29 (3,619 cases, or 8%), those 80 and older (1,408 cases, or 3%), and 1% each in ages less than 10 and 10 to 19 years.

30 to 79 by a "wide margin". While us "old" people are certainly more at risk, the death toll is hardly confined to those whose deaths would be "no biggie to society". And COVID-19 is just getting started outside of China. The age group death ratios may change from those quoted....

[rory_20_uk]

Really?:inquisitive:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate



30 to 79 by a "wide margin". While us "old" people are certainly more at risk, the death toll is hardly confined to those whose deaths would be "no biggie to society". And COVID-19 is just getting started outside of China. The age group death ratios may change from those quoted....

Old or with co-morbidities. When the fit and healthy are dropping like with the 1919 pandemic then I'll properly start panicking.

~:smoking:

[Greyblades]

At least the fit and healthy wont have spent the last 4 years in gore filled ditches this time.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

At least the fit and healthy wont have spent the last 4 years in gore filled ditches this time.

Ironically enough, the US military (who had less than 18 months of "gore-filled ditch" duty compared to the almost 4 years for some of those fighting for "Blighty") had a higher rate of influenza infection than the UK's military. The USA experienced somewhere between 20% (hospitalized & recovered or died) and an estimated 40% (milder cases, many never hospitalized, with the really mild ones -- pardon the pun -- soldiering on) of active forces. UK rates were lower, with 303k hospitalizations among 4.6 million (USA had over the same hospitalization and a higher overall infection rate despite having 750,000 fewer under arms). US training camps were apparently among the highest infection rates of all.

At least COVID-19 does not have the deadly "second phase" associated with the 1918 outbreak.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Old or with co-morbidities. When the fit and healthy are dropping like with the 1919 pandemic then I'll properly start panicking.

~:smoking:

Yeah, but life isn't going to be back to normal when that 2% fatality ends up taking away a grandparent or great uncle from every family.
Expect people to be mad as fuck at anyone and everyone in government.

[Montmorency]

Watching the Trump press conference about it today, and I am fairly confident that the US is not ready for this should it hit the US in large numbers.

People are infectious about 2 weeks before they show any symptoms. Symptoms are basically flu-like. And for half the world it is winter.

It is spread via the airborne route. One sneeze can go 8 metres and the droplets stay airborne for 10 minutes. Masks do little really. Slightly better on someone whose got it.

Airborne diseases can not realistically be stopped. Ebola was close contact and that took ages. Hell, HIV is only close contact of bodily fluids and we can't block that spreading!

Every country is doing lip service to the disease. Because doing something that works would cripple the country economically: shut all non essential flights and ships. Close all borders for all but essential travel. Decontaminate things that have to cross the border. Hell, probably have internal borders as well in all but the smallest countries. Forcibly quarantine everyone who has come near an infected person until they are cleared by one (preferably two or more) lab tests.

Trump press conference (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/trump-to-hold-news-conference-on-coronavirus-u-s-threat) yesterday:


President Donald Trump declared Wednesday that the U.S. is “very, very ready” for whatever the coronavirus threat brings, and he put his vice president in charge of overseeing the nation’s response.

More (https://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/2020/02/trump-tried-to-halt-stock-market-free-fall-he-lied-about-coronavirus-the-dow-just-had-the-biggest-one-day-drop-in-history/):


In a muddled, dishonest, rambling news conference from the White House press briefing room President Donald Trump for over an hour talked to reporters Wednesday evening about coronavirus, in an attempt to stave off three days of market near-collapse. He lied. He twisted the truth. He displayed little grasp of basic facts. He didn’t let the experts run the show.
[...]
The markets on Thursday rewarded his efforts with the DOW posting the largest single day loss in history.
[...]
“The losses mark the worse week for U.S. stocks since the financial crash of 2008.

The Trump administration has known about coronavirus since at least December 1, 2019. It did nothing until January 29, when the White House posted a memo announcing President Trump’s Coronavirus Task Force. The task force did not even include the Surgeon General, making it clear the White House had little interest in communicating to the American people any sense of competence or delivering even an iota of public education.
[...]
Trump returned after two days of about 1000 point drops in the DOW each day. He hastily called a press conference for Wednesday at 6 PM. Just after it began at 6:30 PM it became clear there was not going to be a coronavirus czar, there was no real plan, other than to put in charge Vice President Mike Pence. Even a Fox News pundit eschewed that decision, noting Pence doesn’t believe in science, is not a doctor, and has a horrific record when it comes to public health – he oversaw an explosive HIV outbreak during which he decided to pray for guidance rather than listen to what experts told him he had to do.

And now, as the markets tumble, as Trump lies about the number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. and pretends that there might not be “community spread” – the first case of which the CDC literally announced just after Trump’s news conference, it’s become even more clear Trump and his administration aren’t interested in protecting the American public, but rather, they are interesting in appearing to be doing “things” that might make it appear they are protecting the American public – when their goal is to protect the markets.

That’s why Vice President Pence’s first act as head of the Coronavirus Task Force was to add top and Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow, and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to the Task Force, along with the Surgeon General (finally).

Absent from the list: any public health experts, any crisis experts, anyone not from the Trump administration, the CDC, or the NIH. In other words, there is no one on the Trump Coronavirus Task Force the Trump administration cannot control.

That’s dangerous. It’s dangerous because the administration has already told the federal government all communication, to reporters and others, is to go through Vice President Pence, and it’s dangerous because there is no one who will tell Trump or Pence anything they don’t want to hear.

Vice President Mike Pence (https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/mike-pence-is-still-to-blame-for-an-hiv-outbreak-in-indiana-but-for-new-reasons/):


In late 2014, health officials belatedly became aware of an HIV outbreak in Scott County, Indiana. With fewer than 24,000 people, this rural county rarely saw a single new case in a year, according to The New York Times. But by the time government agencies tried to stop the transmission of the virus a few months later, some 215 people had tested positive.

One man seemed responsible for needlessly letting the situation get out of control: Indiana’s then-Governor Mike Pence. In 2015, when the virus was seeming to rapidly move through networks of people who use intravenous drugs, even the reluctant local sheriff encouraged the governor to authorize a clean-needle exchange, a proven tool to reduce such an outbreak.

But, as the Times reported when he became Donald Trump’s running mate, “Mr. Pence, a steadfast conservative, was morally opposed to needle exchanges on the grounds that they supported drug abuse.” His opposition was based on an incorrect belief; while research has long shown that needle exchanges do reduce HIV and hepatitis, it has also shown that they do not encourage drug use.

Pence went home to “pray on it” before he decided to approve a limited needle exchange. Many observers believed that the program acted as a kind of public-health Hail Mary pass, staunching a catastrophic wound that would have gotten much worse.

:uhoh:

What is your professional opinion on these developments rory?


Mainly the old and sick so frankly no biggie to society.

Hmmm...

[ReluctantSamurai]

When the fit and healthy are dropping like with the 1919 pandemic then I'll properly start panicking

Hope your leaders are more intelligent and informed than ours:

www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-28/how-coronavirus-is-threating-donald-trumps-political-asset/12006078


And when a journalist pointed out that COVID-19 has a fatality rate of around 2-3 per cent, while the flu is about 0.1 per cent, Trump disagreed. "The flu is much higher than that," he said.

:rolleyes: Spend less time on Twitter blaming the Dems for Wall Streets woes, and more time consulting with health care experts Donnie Baby.....


"When they look at the statements made by the people standing behind those podiums, I think that has a huge effect."

The problem with that logic is that the debate happened on Tuesday night (local time), after the markets closed.


"And we'll essentially have a flu shot for this in a fairly quick manner."

Of course anyone with even a cursory knowledge of immunology knows the process of creating a vaccine takes months...


"Nothing is inevitable," he stressed. "There's a chance it could be worse. There's a chance it could get fairly, substantially worse, but nothing is inevitable."

Even as COVID-19 has spread to 50 countries, South Korea announced 505 new cases, Italy reported 650 cases as of Thursday night — up from 400 a day earlier — with 17 deaths, etc., etc., etc.....

Panic time? Perhaps not yet. Time to prepare for the inevitable? Yep.

[Greyblades]

Ironically enough, the US military (who had less than 18 months of "gore-filled ditch" duty compared to the almost 4 years for some of those fighting for "Blighty") had a higher rate of influenza infection than the UK's military. The USA experienced somewhere between 20% (hospitalized & recovered or died) and an estimated 40% (milder cases, many never hospitalized, with the really mild ones -- pardon the pun -- soldiering on) of active forces. UK rates were lower, with 303k hospitalizations among 4.6 million (USA had over the same hospitalization and a higher overall infection rate despite having 750,000 fewer under arms). US training camps were apparently among the highest infection rates of all.

Insert joke about american army rations here.

[rory_20_uk]

Yeah, but life isn't going to be back to normal when that 2% fatality ends up taking away a grandparent or great uncle from every family.
Expect people to be mad as fuck at anyone and everyone in government.

First off, in the USA, if there was a sure fire cure, many americans couldn't afford the treatment. As is the case with every other condition.

Americans allow guns, massive wealth inequality, healthcare unaffordable for about 30% of the populace, racism and xenophobia. How many does this kill every year with barely anyone batting an eyelid?

Look at other countries that have experienced proper disasters. People adapt to a new normal pretty quickly.


Hope your leaders are more intelligent and informed than ours

One website baldly states the government weigh up the health, social and economic facets. So they are currently accepting a few will die rather than loose economic GDP. So, yeah, Governments around the world so far are viewing the number of deaths acceptable compared to the potential economic downturn.

~:smoking:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

First off, in the USA, if there was a sure fire cure, many americans couldn't afford the treatment. As is the case with every other condition.

Americans allow guns, massive wealth inequality, healthcare unaffordable for about 30% of the populace, racism and xenophobia. How many does this kill every year with barely anyone batting an eyelid?

Look at other countries that have experienced proper disasters. People adapt to a new normal pretty quickly.

You're using an over-wide brush in painting your picture of healthcare in America. All of the issues you note are, indeed, problematic -- but some of them are hardly controllable and you've left other concerns off that might be controllable yet bother us as is.

Our healthcare system offers free childhood vaccinations to all (though we do not force the anti-vaxers to be vaccinated and systemic pressures pushing them to vaccinate anyway are limited). Were some virus to reach crisis proportions this same system would be used to provide vaccines as needed and there likely would be legislation passed to fund it for all. Our love of the "rugged individualist" is not a suicide pact. Moreover, any person can present themselves to an emergency room and receive care, even if unable to pay (though the system is cumbersome and reactive instead of proactive -- which I acknowledge may be costing us as much if not more than funding across the board preventative medicine would save).

Firearms have been ubiquitous in the USA since before our inception. Sadly, they do make would-be suicides easier and more effective (as you are probably aware, some 60% of our firearm deaths are suicides). The original reasons for personal use of firearms and their ubiquity were food, protection, and as a final stopgap against government tyranny. The need provide food has, except for certain wilderness areas in Alaska, been obviated by modern food production and distribution. Protection, while still valid to some extent, no longer requires the local militia to be armed since the development of modern policing (both protection responses are reactive) and is simply a question of personal defense prior to a police response. The only continuing reason of the original three is the final stopgap against tyranny, which any number of people think is silly as they believe our government cannot degenerate into tyranny (some few think it already has, but all societies have their fringers). I am not opposed to firearms ownership as I like that final stopgap concept and also note that it makes my country functionally unconquerable by an external power that does not command the high orbitals. That said, I think we might want to seriously consider the requirement that firearms under 15" barrel length be banned/rendered inoperable. Protection against tyranny is best served by weapons that would be useful on a modern battlefield and your typical handgun is largely irrelevant in such a context -- yet it is handguns easily held and used that are the source of most of our suicides and homicides. I wonder how many would be prevented simply by the choice to violence requiring you to use both hands to lift a multiple pound object...

Racism and Xenophobia are problems in the USA, I agree. We have been working on them for hundreds of years and while we have enjoyed much success we are all too prone to backsliding on both. But you're well aware that these things exist in all cultures and that the USA's culture is, by no means, the worst practitioner of either. Do these weaknesses kill people? Absolutely, at least by laying the groundwork that allows people to be mistreated or forgotten or marginalized or even, at least in some cases, specifically targeted for violence. Both concerns are still being better addressed than they were when I was a child. I can assure you that my children are even less likely to further either and very likely to work against both as opportunity presents. Which is as it should be. These are cultural changes that require sustained effort over time. Cultures do not change by fiat.

You did not mention auto accidents (40k+ per year), or plain old accidents (120k+ per year), or overdoses (60-70k+ depending on year), or the metabolic syndrome stuff (800k+ per year) that underlies much of our healthcare risks on the national level (increase in sedentary, increase in calories, increase in simple carbs/fats as a ratio of diet).


I do agree with you as to government choices on same. Governments can never have the resources to address all concerns, so they MUST make calculated choices as to how much to spend on what and to counteract x, y. or z. That's unlikely to ever change. All we can do is help make those choices generate the greatest good for the cost expenditure made.

[Beskar]

Yeah, but life isn't going to be back to normal when that 2% fatality ends up taking away a grandparent or great uncle from every family.
Expect people to be mad as fuck at anyone and everyone in government.

That 2% is inaccurate anyway as this only refers to cases that require hospitalisation. Which in a broader picture, only 1% of Flu cases require hospitalisation and 15% of Corvid-19 do. So this is 30x death rate of Flu. Italy currently looks like 5% morality rate. Which suggests it could be 45 times.

[Shaka_Khan]

That 2% is inaccurate anyway as this only refers to cases that require hospitalisation. Which in a broader picture, only 1% of Flu cases require hospitalisation and 15% of Corvid-19 do. So this is 30x death rate of Flu. Italy currently looks like 5% morality rate. Which suggests it could be 45 times.
Certainly, quarantining an entire city and telling the entire country to stay home as much as possible for several days are actions by a really frightened government. Governments don't do this over a flu.

[Montmorency]

One website baldly states the government weigh up the health, social and economic facets. So they are currently accepting a few will die rather than loose economic GDP. So, yeah, Governments around the world so far are viewing the number of deaths acceptable compared to the potential economic downturn.

Which website? It seems rather difficult to plan to contain disease deaths within an "acceptable" range, and I don't know what an acceptable range would be as far as allaying social unrest and economic losses goes. And this imputed autotomic motivation seems to contrast with all the governments around the world who have taken drastic quarantine measures to the loss of billions in economic activity already.

The Soviet Union, by the way, ended WW2 with the same GDP it started with. Losing people is inherently draining of the economy.


Our healthcare system offers free childhood vaccinations to all (though we do not force the anti-vaxers to be vaccinated and systemic pressures pushing them to vaccinate anyway are limited).

Having started on the fringes of liberal upper-middle class lifestyle woo, anti-vax has come dangerously close to being Republican mainstream, right up to the White House.


Were some virus to reach crisis proportions this same system would be used to provide vaccines as needed and there likely would be legislation passed to fund it for all. Our love of the "rugged individualist" is not a suicide pact.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/27/azar-coronavirus-affordable-trump/


Let them eat cake.

This is effectively what Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told Americans when asked about whether a treatment for the fast-moving coronavirus will be affordable.

“We would want to ensure that we work to make it affordable, but we can’t control that price because we need the private sector to invest,” he told a congressional committee on Wednesday in response to a question about affordability. “The priority is to get vaccines and therapeutics. Price controls won’t get us there.”

:blush:


Moreover, any person can present themselves to an emergency room and receive care, even if unable to pay (though the system is cumbersome and reactive instead of proactive -- which I acknowledge may be costing us as much if not more than funding across the board preventative medicine would save).

And be billed thousands of dollars later, which discourages voluntary self-admission.


The only continuing reason of the original three is the final stopgap against tyranny,

The problem remains that this was not an explicit motivation shared by many at the time in connection to firearms, and that in practice those availing themselves of this theoretical motivation to ownership are the likeliest candidates to become brownshirt paramilitaries themselves.


also note that it makes my country functionally unconquerable by an external power that does not command the high orbitals.

We have oceans and breadth and nukes. No one has tried to conquer us in at least 200 years, and I see no reason why anyone would have the means or motivation to try. Vladimir Putin didn't need to fire a shot...


I wonder how many would be prevented simply by the choice to violence requiring you to use both hands to lift a multiple pound object...

I'm not opposed to (trying to) eliminate handguns, but as a conservative you can think of numerous workarounds to such an approach, and accompanying perverse incentives. A comprehensive approach would be the most successful, and that requires acknowledging the depth of gun culture in this country and its umbilical attachment to the whole ecosystem of far-right ideology. As with so many other areas robust reform would have to be generationally transformative to the limit of the final decisive confrontation with the forces of Reaction sksdjdksk


But you're well aware that these things exist in all cultures and that the USA's culture is, by no means, the worst practitioner of either.

Crucially, if liberal democracy (at the least) cannot persist in America then humanity at large is condemned. Our fate is enormously important to the rest of the world. Shining city and all that.


You did not mention auto accidents (40k+ per year), or plain old accidents (120k+ per year), or overdoses (60-70k+ depending on year), or the metabolic syndrome stuff (800k+ per year) that underlies much of our healthcare risks on the national level (increase in sedentary, increase in calories, increase in simple carbs/fats as a ratio of diet).

We do more to address these problems than we do gun violence and culture, but I'm sure we could do more. For example:

Establish universal healthcare free at point of service, minimize sectoral influence over food and agriculture policy, and - most controversially - accelerate urbanization with social housing, massive public transit infrastructure, and curtailment of private automobile production and ownership/usage. (The latter is so controversial that even the AOC/Sanders Green New Deal incorporates mass private ownership of electric vehicles.)

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

That 2% is inaccurate anyway as this only refers to cases that require hospitalisation. Which in a broader picture, only 1% of Flu cases require hospitalisation and 15% of Corvid-19 do. So this is 30x death rate of Flu. Italy currently looks like 5% morality rate. Which suggests it could be 45 times.

That figure may be inflated, a lot of people are asymptomatic - making tracking the virus even harder - and therefore lethality overall may be closer to 1% or less.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcTpc0L3XNQ

Of the 700 people on Diamond Princess who contracted Corvid-19 6 have died, that's a little under 1%.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...Having started on the fringes of liberal upper-middle class lifestyle woo, anti-vax has come dangerously close to being Republican mainstream, right up to the White House... Two years past I would have said you were being entirely silly. However, with any number of folk like George Will, Max Boot, and myself having (at least functionally) left the GOP as it has become more and more the party of Trump, it is plausible that the anti-vaxers are in the ascendancy there. Of course, many of those folks are the same ones who believe that the federal government is ALREADY a tyranny... :shame:

[Viking]

The spreading of this thing is aggressive, no doubt.

On Wednesday morning, there were no confirmed COVID-19 cases in this country (not for a lack of testing, as far as I understand), today there are no less than 15 confirmed cases, including two cases of probable domestic transmission.

Prediction: confirmed cases in the US will skyrocket over the next two weeks; say, more than 100 confirmed cases by the end of next week (versus 15 today, not counting the Corona Princess)?

[Hooahguy]

My roommate's dad who works with infectious diseases is insisting that we start stockpiling food in case we get hit real bad. Any suggestions on whats the best food to stockpile? Though I think instead of stockpiling food I should just head to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this to blow over.

[Pannonian]

My roommate's dad who works with infectious diseases is insisting that we start stockpiling food in case we get hit real bad. Any suggestions on whats the best food to stockpile? Though I think instead of stockpiling food I should just head to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this to blow over.

Calories
Carbohydrates
Protein
Fibre
Fats
Multi-vits & minerals

Have the first 5, have stuff you want to eat in enough variety to make it worthwhile, and have multi-vits guarantee what you may lack from the previous. Fresh stuff mixes things up, but in a pinch, you can keep going on the above in storable form. You just need fresh water and heat in addition.

[Greyblades]

Rice, Pasta, tinned food, basic long lasting stuff. And toilet paper, lots of toilet paper.

The impression I get is there's unlikely to be much in the way of outright mass starvation or societal collapse in the west but things might start getting short. I dont think heat and water will be an issue but at the very least the panic buying will see shelves stripped bare for a period of time.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Rice, Pasta, tinned food, basic long lasting stuff. And toilet paper, lots of toilet paper.

The impression I get is there's unlikely to be much in the way of outright mass starvation or societal collapse in the west but things might start getting short. I dont think heat and water will be an issue but at the very least the panic buying will see shelves stripped bare for a period of time.

Right, rice, dried pasta, tinned tomato soup, tinned veg, tinned meat like Spam or Bully beef. Potatoes last a long time if kept in the cold and, as Greyblades says toilet paper. Also, bar soap - it lasts a lot longer than gel soups and you can use it for everything in a pinch (it's also more environmentally friendly and better for your skin).

Realistically, we aren't going to actually run out of anything critical but prices might shoot up as supply is disrupted.

In better news - looks like current best guess for mortality is, indeed, 1%: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cyz0z8w0ydwt/coronavirus-outbreak&link_location=live-reporting-story

That's still pretty bad but it's way below apocalyptic fears and may well be revised downwards. We're looking at something more infectious but less deadly than SARS and MERS, 10% and 35% respectively.

Another source: https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-mortality-rate-covid-19-fatalities-ebola-sars-mers-1489466

It's not impossible that the real killer here will be impact on the supply chain that see people not getting medicines or other supplies, especially in Third World countries.

[Shaka_Khan]

In better news - looks like current best guess for mortality is, indeed, 1%: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cyz0z8w0ydwt/coronavirus-outbreak&link_location=live-reporting-story

That's still pretty bad but it's way below apocalyptic fears and may well be revised downwards. We're looking at something more infectious but less deadly than SARS and MERS, 10% and 35% respectively.
Unfortunately, countries that are experiencing high numbers are also experiencing a shortage of available rooms/beds in the hospitals. Many of the infected are being self-quarantined in their homes. Also, this virus could damage the lungs, which would be unfixable. And there are some people who are experiencing repeated symptoms.

[a completely inoffensive name]

First off, in the USA, if there was a sure fire cure, many americans couldn't afford the treatment. As is the case with every other condition.
Americans allow guns, massive wealth inequality, healthcare unaffordable for about 30% of the populace, racism and xenophobia. How many does this kill every year with barely anyone batting an eyelid?
Look at other countries that have experienced proper disasters. People adapt to a new normal pretty quickly.

Conservatives in the US generally inversely assert individual responsibility to the degree that the issue impacts their own life. I'm not trying to be flippant to you Rory, just pointing out the real American psychology which might not be apparent in British media coverage.

'I thought gay marriage is bad until I knew someone who is gay.' Because if they are telling me they didn't choose to be gay, then my world view on their inherent sinfulness or 'activism' melts away and I am left with empathy.
This is also how so the prevailing views on the subject flipped so fast in less than 10 years because the LGBT community simply made themselves known on a more individual level.

'I thought the ACA was terrible until I had a pre-existing condition and was denied/child that was under 26 struggle to find a job/got medicare when my state expanded it'.

'I thought paid child leave was for welfare queens until I had my first child.'

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/08acdo/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-lactate-intolerance

Pandemics and other natural disasters are on their face equal opportunity killers, there is no special reasoning or conjecture as to why some people die and others don't other than blind luck.
This means that everyone feels the threat to its intensity and conservatives must either downplay the danger or they too will become enraged that not enough is being done. But keep in mind, this anger over government ineptitude is not some general awareness of public safety measures, they simply want government to protect the right people (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/8/18173678/trump-shutdown-voter-florida).

[Montmorency]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html


After returning to Miami last month from a work trip in China, Osmel Martinez Azcue found himself in a frightening position: he was developing flu-like symptoms, just as coronavirus was ravaging the country he had visited.

Under normal circumstances, Azcue said he would have gone to CVS for over-the-counter medicine and fought the flu on his own, but this time was different. As health officials stressed preparedness and vigilance for the respiratory illness, Azcue felt it was his responsibility to his family and his community to get tested for novel coronavirus, known as COVID-19.

He went to Jackson Memorial Hospital, where he said he was placed in a closed-off room. Nurses in protective white suits sprayed some kind of disinfectant smoke under the door before entering, Azcue said. Then hospital staff members told him he’d need a CT scan to screen for coronavirus, but Azcue said he asked for a flu test first.

“This will be out of my pocket,” Azcue, who has a very limited insurance plan, recalled saying. “Let’s start with the blood test, and if I test positive, just discharge me.”

Fortunately, that’s exactly what happened. He had the flu, not the deadly virus that has infected tens of thousands of people, mostly in China, and killed at least 2,239 as of Friday’s update by the World Health Organization.

But two weeks later, Azcue got unwelcome news in the form of a notice from his insurance company about a claim for $3,270.

In 2018, President Donald Trump’s administration rolled back Affordable Care Act regulations and allowed so-called “junk plans” in the market. Consumers mistakenly assume that the plans with lower monthly costs will be better than no insurance at all in case of a medical catastrophe, but often the plans aren’t very different from going without insurance altogether.

Hospital officials at Jackson told the Miami Herald that, based on his insurance, Azcue would only be responsible for $1,400 of that bill, but Azcue said he heard from his insurer that he would also have to provide additional documentation: three years of medical records to prove that the flu he got didn’t relate to a preexisting condition.

:sleepy:


These people are very stupid.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1233423437286211585

Although to be fair, state media in other authoritarian regimes aren't much better.
https://twitter.com/rafsanchez/status/1232276847255224320

Holy crud, watch those two clips. Now for a humor break:

Trump understands, old men are the future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmOCsiZgAbg

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Unfortunately, countries that are experiencing high numbers are also experiencing a shortage of available rooms/beds in the hospitals. Many of the infected are being self-quarantined in their homes. Also, this virus could damage the lungs, which would be unfixable. And there are some people who are experiencing repeated symptoms.

Less than one in five requires medical intervention, and not all of those require hospitalisation. All the evidence points to this being the equivalent of a really nasty strain of flu, not SRS.

I'm very dubious on this recurrence and especially "unfixable" damage to the lungs given that the lungs are extremely good at regenerating.

[Shaka_Khan]

Less than one in five requires medical intervention, and not all of those require hospitalisation. All the evidence points to this being the equivalent of a really nasty strain of flu, not SRS.
You're ignoring the numbers in Wuhan. The hospitals were overwhelmed.



I'm very dubious on this recurrence
We'll have to wait and see if it's true or not. But it's not safe to assume something is wrong without proof. And you shouldn't choose which the official reports are true or false just to illustrate to your liking.



and especially "unfixable" damage to the lungs given that the lungs are extremely good at regenerating.
That depends on how damaged the lungs are. I heard that it's hard for the internal organs to recover from a severe damage.

[ReluctantSamurai]

All the buzz surrounding this COVID-19 outbreak just serves to illustrate that when big bucks are involved, massive headlines follow. Yet, a disease far more deadly rages on with little media attention:

www.worldbank.org/en/news/immersive-story/2019/03/04/drc-a-trip-to-the-front-lines-of-the-fight-against-ebola#

[rory_20_uk]

All the buzz surrounding this COVID-19 outbreak just serves to illustrate that when big bucks are involved, massive headlines follow. Yet, a disease far more deadly rages on with little media attention:

www.worldbank.org/en/news/immersive-story/2019/03/04/drc-a-trip-to-the-front-lines-of-the-fight-against-ebola#

And Malaria, TV, cholera... and so on and so on. They kill poor people abroad. The risks of these things getting to the West are pretty low and most are difficult to spread or are at least treatable.

Just like we don't really care about poor people in general. Respiratory infections that can affect the rich,, affect the old more than others are little treatment works beyond supportive measures is scary.

~:smoking:

[ReluctantSamurai]

The risks of these things getting to the West are pretty low and most are difficult to spread or are at least treatable

I get that. What I was referring to more was if COVID-19 had started in a third world country with little impact on global economy, instead of China with it's huge global footprint, would the media coverage be the same? I also think that because COVID-19 is new variation of SARS, and because of that, it will take some time for immune systems to learn how to fight it (and no vaccines to combat it, either), we tend to focus on it just for the newness of it:shrug:


Just like we don't really care about poor people in general

The millions of people carrying smart phones (and the businesses that make them) will certainly take notice if the current Ebola out-break in the DRC reaches the tantalum mines:sweatdrop:

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

We'll have to wait and see if it's true or not. But it's not safe to assume something is wrong without proof.


That depends on how damaged the lungs are. I heard that it's hard for the internal organs to recover from a severe damage.

Right now both these claims look alarmist, so far Corvid 19 appears to be a less dangerous disease than SARS or MERS.

[Montmorency]

I don't want to speak for the rest of you, and at the risk of sounding self-centered, but COVID-19 is an infinitely-greater hazard to my wellbeing than Ebola.

Ervebo (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/first-fda-approved-vaccine-prevention-ebola-virus-disease-marking-critical-milestone-public-health) sounds good too.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Mother sent me this this evening - I opined that I didn't think gargling was worth much.

Interested to know what others with more knowledge think:

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS
Last evening dining out with friends, one of their uncles, who's graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.
SPREAD THE WORD - PLEASE SHARE.

[Greyblades]

That temperature thing doesnt sound right, if it dies at 27 it shouldnt be able to survive base internal body temperature of 34.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

That temperature thing doesnt sound right, if it dies at 27 it shouldnt be able to survive base internal body temperature of 34.He was referring to virus spores out in the open, not interacting within the system of a host.

[Montmorency]

That temperature thing doesnt sound right, if it dies at 27 it shouldnt be able to survive base internal body temperature of 34.

The chain mail likely simplified at point of origin, or degraded over time.

According to this work (https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext):


Most data were described with the endemic human coronavirus strain (HCoV-) 229E. On different types of materials it can remain infectious for from 2 hours up to 9 days. A higher temperature such as 30°C or 40°C reduced the duration of persistence of highly pathogenic MERS-CoV, TGEV and MHV. However, at 4°C persistence of TGEV and MHV can be increased to ≥ 28 days. Few comparative data obtained with SARS-CoV indicate that persistence was longer with higher inocula (Table I). In addition it was shown at room temperature that HCoV-229E persists better at 50% compared to 30% relative humidity [8].

Hydrogen peroxide and ethanol still good disinfectants though.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Apparently 'blades' skepticism and Monty's seconding thereof are on point. 26/27 debrees Celsius would likely reduce COVID-19, but NOT eliminate. Apparently temperatures need to be 'north' of 30 to have a profound impact. Article (https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronaviruses-how-long-can-they-survive-on-surfaces#How-long-do-coronaviruses-persist?).

[Viking]

Interested to know what others with more knowledge think:

Considering that the whole thing could be fabricated and that there is no way to do a background check on the author, it might be best to treat it as noise and discard it rather than analyze it.


I don't want to speak for the rest of you, and at the risk of sounding self-centered, but COVID-19 is an infinitely-greater hazard to my wellbeing than Ebola.

The most recent outbreak of Ebola might have killed fewer people than COVID-19 as well; 2254 registered deaths (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/all-topics-z/ebola-and-marburg-fevers/threats-and-outbreaks/ebola-outbreak-DRC-geographical-distribution) per 18 February.

[Beskar]

Surprised no one has posted about the Wuhan-400 conspiracy theory yet.
https://fullfact.org/online/book-didnt-predict-coronavirus/

[ReluctantSamurai]

The most recent outbreak of Ebola might have killed fewer people than COVID-19 as well

Maybe so but, considering the location of the outbreak, it has a chance to be very disruptive to certain areas of the global economy if it spreads to DRC's mine districts. Considering that the DRC produces 30% of the world's tantalum, and neighboring Rwanda 31%, widespread mine closures for any extended length of time, would hit the electronics industry pretty hard. Yet......

......you hardly hear about this because, IMHO, the DRC and Rwanda are relatively poor third world countries. :creep:

[Shaka_Khan]

Right now both these claims look alarmist, so far Corvid 19 appears to be a less dangerous disease than SARS or MERS.
Everything I said above I got from official reports of the doctors or people who are in the location of the trouble zones. I don't think you remember SARS or MERS. I've never seen the world go this extreme with those two cases. Clearly, the governments are now scared to the level never seen before, although a lot of them don't admit it. Actions speak louder than words. If it's alarmist as you claim it to be, what's the motive with quarantining entire cities, making an entire country stay home for several days, and numerous countries blocking or quarantining some nationalities even when they're not showing to have the virus? This is a very unusual one in which it's hard to detect during its incubation period, and it can spread during that incubation period. And it has shown that the symptoms can return after the supposed recovery. Remember, the population of Wuhan was larger than the largest city in the United States before millions evacuated Wuhan (before the quarantine began). And remember that the Chinese government originally tried to hide the outbreak. Look at the extreme measures it took when the epidemic could no longer be hidden.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Everything I said above I got from official reports of the doctors or people who are in the location of the trouble zones. I don't think you remember SARS or MERS. I've never seen the world go this extreme with those two cases. Clearly, the governments are now scared to the level never seen before, although a lot of them don't admit it. Actions speak louder than words. If it's alarmist as you claim it to be, what's the motive with quarantining entire cities, making an entire country stay home for several days, and numerous countries blocking or quarantining some nationalities even when they're not showing to have the virus? This is a very unusual one in which it's hard to detect during its incubation period, and it can spread during that incubation period. And it has shown that the symptoms can return after the supposed recovery. Remember, the population of Wuhan was larger than the largest city in the United States before millions evacuated Wuhan (before the quarantine began). And remember that the Chinese government originally tried to hide the outbreak. Look at the extreme measures it took when the epidemic could no longer be hidden.

I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that - not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that - not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.

100% infection rate at 3% death rate would result in roughly 23.4 million deaths.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

100% infection rate at 3% death rate would result in roughly 23.4 million deaths.

Again, death rate is currently estimated at 1%, many who become infected are a-symptomatic and there's no guarantee everyone will become infected.

So...

[a completely inoffensive name]

Again, death rate is currently estimated at 1%, many who become infected are a-symptomatic and there's no guarantee everyone will become infected.

So...

If you are under 40 the chance of dying is much slimmer.
The 5 deaths in Washington state are from elderly and compromised individuals.

What we should be discussing is how we respond to the growing number of epidemics which will without a doubt continue to arise.
The global population is aging and will be more susceptible to these outbreaks over time. Last time I checked only 3% of American workers work remote/from home.

How do we restructure our work and government institutions to prevent an even more dangerous virus from spreading without having to resort to large scale quarantine and a halt on production.

I'll admit I bought into the fear a little bit and just stocked up on about a month of canned goods. But I am not afraid of dying from the virus, more afraid of that loss of production.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Hydrogen peroxide and ethanol still good disinfectants though.

Ethanol needs high concentration to be effective.
Chlorine based cleaners also should do well.

Effectiveness for any type of disinfectant depends on concentration, time, and temperature. Just because you wiped a surface once with a damp paper towel of hydrogen peroxide doesn't mean it is suddenly free of all viruses/spores/bacteria.

[Montmorency]

The American Physical Society just cancelled its annual physics conference a day before it was scheduled to commence. Tens of thousands of attendees left hanging. One more price we pay.

Devastating thread. I REALLY hope we get a lucky break.
https://twitter.com/JeremyKonyndyk/status/1234180123244580864


Apparently 'blades' skepticism and Monty's seconding thereof are on point. 26/27 debrees Celsius would likely reduce COVID-19, but NOT eliminate. Apparently temperatures need to be 'north' of 30 to have a profound impact. Article (https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronaviruses-how-long-can-they-survive-on-surfaces#How-long-do-coronaviruses-persist?).

I feel smug because I read the same article but clicked through to the source material in my post.


Considering that the whole thing could be fabricated and that there is no way to do a background check on the author, it might be best to treat it as noise and discard it rather than analyze it.

Smart.


Ethanol needs high concentration to be effective.
Chlorine based cleaners also should do well.

Effectiveness for any type of disinfectant depends on concentration, time, and temperature. Just because you wiped a surface once with a damp paper towel of hydrogen peroxide doesn't mean it is suddenly free of all viruses/spores/bacteria.

The study Seamus and I link referred to a benchmark of 1 minute (or 30 second, or 10 minute) contact/exposure, but as with temperature there's a geometric curve in the resilience of the virus. Even 1 minute is long. What's good for peons?

Concentrations tested reflect what is commercially available. For example, (dilute) 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or isopropyl 50%-100%.

[a completely inoffensive name]

The study Seamus and I link referred to a benchmark of 1 minute (or 30 second, or 10 minute) contact/exposure, but as with temperature there's a geometric curve in the resilience of the virus. Even 1 minute is long. What's good for peons?

Concentrations tested reflect what is commercially available. For example, (dilute) 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or isopropyl 50%-100%.

I'm just making a general statement building off of yours based on my experience with people who don't know the difference between disinfectants and the science behind them.
Different types of disinfectants are good for different applications. Some are good for fungi and spores while not being so great against bacteria and viruses and vice versa. You can actually see that in the studies showed.

The point about ethanol is for people who somehow think their 40% Smirnoff is going to do the trick.
Concentrations are going to be what you can get at the store, temp is going to be your house environment, what is in our control most is duration.
Isopropyl alcohol evaporates very quickly even in somewhat chilly temps, keep the surface wet for the full min.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51048366

BBC has a useful chart (near the bottom) of how bad this might get, assuming health services don't overload, basically only 20% will get seriously ill, only 6% will become critical and only 1-2% will die. Those numbers are not great but they're far below the figures for diseases like SARS or Ebola and surviveability goes up substantially for anyone under 80, then under 70 and again under 60. In the West this will likely hit our elderly population hard, especially those living in care-homes with other old people who will also catch and transmit the disease.

[Shaka_Khan]

I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that
We all know that. You're actually agreeing with us now.



- not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.
The infection rate is very high because it can spread during the incubation period, the incubation period is long, and it's hard to detect during that period. Thus, even if the percentage is low, that low percentage would represent a larger number because of the larger number of infections when compared to SARS and MERS.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...The point about ethanol is for people who somehow think their 40% Smirnoff is going to do the trick...

I think part of the problem with this substance is that they are relying on ingestion...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

We all know that. You're actually agreeing with us now.



The infection rate is very high because it can spread during the incubation period, the incubation period is long, and it's hard to detect during that period. Thus, even if the percentage is low, that low percentage would represent a larger number because of the larger number of infections when compared to SARS and MERS.

So you think I do remember SARS, then?

It's like the flu, the infection rate is high because it's not that dangerous.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

If you are under 40 the chance of dying is much slimmer.
The 5 deaths in Washington state are from elderly and compromised individuals.

What we should be discussing is how we respond to the growing number of epidemics which will without a doubt continue to arise.
The global population is aging and will be more susceptible to these outbreaks over time. Last time I checked only 3% of American workers work remote/from home.

How do we restructure our work and government institutions to prevent an even more dangerous virus from spreading without having to resort to large scale quarantine and a halt on production.

I'll admit I bought into the fear a little bit and just stocked up on about a month of canned goods. But I am not afraid of dying from the virus, more afraid of that loss of production.

Basically, we expand healthcare capacity to cope - we've been cutting back on it for too long - like everything else.

We also stop buying into the "global economy" with such enthusiasm.

There are far more catastrophic diseases like Ash Dieback currently raging through Europe.

[Viking]

Status report from South Korea:


Hospitals in South Korea’s hardest hit areas were scrambling to accommodate the surge in new patients.

In Daegu, 2,300 people were waiting to be admitted to hospitals and temporary medical facilities, Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip said. A 100-bed military hospital that had been handling many of the most serious cases was due to have 200 additional beds available by Thursday, he added.

Thousands wait for hospital beds in South Korea as coronavirus cases surge (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-idUSKBN20R05M)

Unless there are confounding factors at play in Daegu, and unless Washington state is more capable of handling an outbreak like this, this could be Washington state in a couple of weeks. The spreading there is firmly not under control.

One obvious important potential confounding factor is what kind of symptoms are deemed as requiring hospitalization in Daegu vs. Washington.


On an unrelated note, there are now 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city where I live (Northern Italy appears to be a very popular destination here), which could place it in the upper half of this list (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html) of global infection rates at the country level. Yikes.

[Beskar]

Got to admit, my upcoming holiday might end up cancelled/railroaded because the main attractions are barring people from 'affected countries' which kind of spoils the whole point of going to those places.

But there is a discussion about there being two strains of the virus. One is the aggressive form and the other is the milder. It seems the aggressive one is the one dying out.

[rory_20_uk]

Status report from South Korea:



Thousands wait for hospital beds in South Korea as coronavirus cases surge (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-idUSKBN20R05M)

Unless there are confounding factors at play in Daegu, and unless Washington state is more capable of handling an outbreak like this, this could be Washington state in a couple of weeks. The spreading there is firmly not under control.

One obvious important potential confounding factor is what kind of symptoms are deemed as requiring hospitalization in Daegu vs. Washington.


On an unrelated note, there are now 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city where I live (Northern Italy appears to be a very popular destination here), which could place it in the upper half of this list (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html) of global infection rates at the country level. Yikes.

Given the USA generally has expensive hospitals and no safety net for ill people, I think you'll get a massive problem with isolating people since many can't afford the time off.

~:smoking:

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The Telegraph is reporting that there are now two distinct strains of the virus, S and L - L is newer, more infectious and more agreesive (no word yet on if it's more deadly) where S is milder. You can catch both, which explains this "reinfection" - these people are actually catching two diseases.

[Montmorency]

Watch this clip (https://twitter.com/owillis/status/1234599053725491200) of Trump briefed on the coronavirus, then watch the first two minutes of this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmOCsiZgAbg).


And all these people (And all these people have always blown and always will.) have always blown and always will.


Historian Kevin Kruse points out that after Jonas Salk developed the polio vaccine, Democrats proposed distributing it for free to every child under 19. Over email, Kruse writes that Oveta Culp Hobby, a Texas millionaire and Dwight D. Eisenhower’s secretary of health, education, and welfare, fought back, calling free distribution “socialized medicine by the back door.”



Status report from South Korea:

Thousands wait for hospital beds in South Korea as coronavirus cases surge (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-idUSKBN20R05M)

Unless there are confounding factors at play in Daegu, and unless Washington state is more capable of handling an outbreak like this, this could be Washington state in a couple of weeks. The spreading there is firmly not under control.

One obvious important potential confounding factor is what kind of symptoms are deemed as requiring hospitalization in Daegu vs. Washington.

I'm interested to hear how North Korea is handling things. Will the population be evacuated en masse to a network of tunnels and bunkers? [Props to whoever gets the reference]


On an unrelated note, there are now 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city where I live (Northern Italy appears to be a very popular destination here), which could place it in the upper half of this list (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html) of global infection rates at the country level. Yikes.

The contemporary parlance is "big yikes."

In my city, the government has contingency plans for prison labor to dig mass graves for up to 51,000 corpses. I'm sure PVC appreciates these moments when nothing is new under the sun. :creep:

[rory_20_uk]

The Pharma executives - especially knowing their audience - really didn't help themselves by mentioning first in man when they were asked about time to deploy. Yes, it's a complex area and they're mainly used to dealing with other highly trained individuals. But they surely know when they are faced with Donnie Dumbo to Dumb It Down. A LOT. Start with the "it'll probably take over a year" and then perhaps mention some of the initial steps required. Not that the Donald cares of course.

But then they're probably often the Commercial people who know a lot less and are probably angling from some commercial advantage for getting something fast tracked.

~:smoking:

[Shaka_Khan]

There seems to be a mutation.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYPZHA-UjUY



Don't be a jerk.

You didn't even prove anything, nor is it a big deal whether you remember SARS or not.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

There seems to be a mutation.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYPZHA-UjUY


When you go aggressive, I suggest you do it in person. Doing it behind a computer screen doesn't make you look good. You didn't even prove anything, nor is it a big deal whether you remember SARS or not.

I'm not being aggressive, I'm telling you not to tell me what I do or don't remember.

[ReluctantSamurai]

But then they're probably often the Commercial people who know a lot less and are probably angling from some commercial advantage for getting something fast tracked

And you can take THAT to the bank~:smoking:

"Old men running the world....Old men are the future.":sweatdrop:

BTW...it took 20 months to develop a SARS vaccine, and 6 months for a Zika vaccine:

www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/health/coronavirus-vaccine.html


“You have to be brave and you have to be a solid company to do this, because there is no real incentive to do this, no financial incentive,”

Not sure what this statement means:shrug:

[a completely inoffensive name]

Basically, we expand healthcare capacity to cope - we've been cutting back on it for too long - like everything else.
We also stop buying into the "global economy" with such enthusiasm.
There are far more catastrophic diseases like Ash Dieback currently raging through Europe.

The global economy has done more to improve healthcare for people than anything else. 1/3rd of Europe died from a plague back when they were relatively isolated from Asia with the exception the silk road paths. I think today's level of connections have proven to be far better for everyone. Insert joke about British obviously not understanding this in light of Brexit.

The US has had entire species decimated as well by Asian and European species invading the local ecosystem. We are trying to genetically engineer local species to adapt better.


The Pharma executives - especially knowing their audience - really didn't help themselves by mentioning first in man when they were asked about time to deploy. Yes, it's a complex area and they're mainly used to dealing with other highly trained individuals. But they surely know when they are faced with Donnie Dumbo to Dumb It Down. A LOT. Start with the "it'll probably take over a year" and then perhaps mention some of the initial steps required. Not that the Donald cares of course.

But then they're probably often the Commercial people who know a lot less and are probably angling from some commercial advantage for getting something fast tracked.

I hear Prince Charles is a bit of a goof, but if you had a meeting with him wouldn't you be overly formal than the opposite?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The global economy has done more to improve healthcare for people than anything else. 1/3rd of Europe died from a plague back when they were relatively isolated from Asia with the exception the silk road paths. I think today's level of connections have proven to be far better for everyone. Insert joke about British obviously not understanding this in light of Brexit.

The US has had entire species decimated as well by Asian and European species invading the local ecosystem. We are trying to genetically engineer local species to adapt better.

Well, people died of Plague because of a lack of healthcare and basic sanitation - and lack of modern antibiotics. On the other hand, the Spanish Flue spread so quickly because of the (already) globalised economy.

Right now people move faster than politicians can react - if we had put a 3-week ban on all non essential travel then the virus would be a lot more contained now. That's not to say that would have been the right thing to do, but to recognise that this is the consequence of globalisation.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

First UK fatality - woman in her 70's, underlying health condition.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51759602

[Montmorency]

Trump to Hannity (https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1235409660104015873) on WHO saying coronavirus death rate is 3.4%: "I think the 3.4% number is really a false number. Now this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations ... personally, I'd say the number is way under 1%."

Astoundingly irresponsible.

In this clip, Trump:
1. Denies WHO's coronavirus death rate based on “hunch"
2. Calls coronavirus "corona flu"
3. Suggests it's fine for people w/ Covid-19 to go to work
4. Compares coronavirus to "the regular flu," indicating he doesn't get the difference

"We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better" -- Trump to Sean Hannity, last night


What is most shocking is that an incompetent response to a disease outbreak is obviously contradictory to Trump's basic political interests, but he and his minions reject a world beyond their immediate awareness; all they know is sneering and vindictive will to power and intimidation. They probably truly don't realize that you can't BS a virus into submission.



Well, people died of Plague because of a lack of healthcare and basic sanitation - and lack of modern antibiotics. On the other hand, the Spanish Flue spread so quickly because of the (already) globalised economy.

Right now people move faster than politicians can react - if we had put a 3-week ban on all non essential travel then the virus would be a lot more contained now. That's not to say that would have been the right thing to do, but to recognise that this is the consequence of globalisation.

Not clear how worthwhile travel restrictions (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/why-travel-restrictions-are-not-stopping-coronavirus-covid-19/) are in limiting spread. But we do know - obviously - they are economically devastating and can dovetail with business and consumer retrenchment to produce counterproductive shocks.

It's also telling that the Trump admin has used the pandemic as cover to expand travel bans to more Muslim or African countries.

[rory_20_uk]

I hear Prince Charles is a bit of a goof, but if you had a meeting with him wouldn't you be overly formal than the opposite?

Charles, bless him, has no real power and is not in charge of a major country's response to a health pandemic. So yes I'd probably lean in to the pageantry and enjoy the silliness of it all.

It is not about being formal or informal, polite or rude. It is about ensuring that the audience grasps the most important points. Dopey Donnie is not very bright. He is also old and probably has small vessel disease. He when at his peak tends to only hear what he wants.

So all this together means the answers should be very simple and focus on the "over a year" rather than "two months until phase I".
No, you can't up the timeline by shouting at it.
No, throwing resources at it probably won't speed things up greatly either - safety data takes time to collect.
Yes, probably best Industry works with the CDC directly on the details whilst you play Big Boy The Apprentice and try to look like a Leader.
Yes, you can hang Mike Pence out to be the fall guy if you want. Just don't let him get in the way.

Don't get me wrong - if I was in Donnie's position the only difference is I'd have cheerfully asked them to coordinate with the CDC in the first place since I know I don't know enough (OK, anything) to have a meaningful input.

~:smoking:

[ReluctantSamurai]

They probably truly don't realize that you can't BS a virus into submission

:stupido:

[edyzmedieval]

Gentlemen, a fair warning to some of you - do not go down the inflammatory route and words with a personal target. I've edited out your posts. Keep it civil please.

[edyzmedieval]

Economy and travel wise, the global epidemic has hindered significantly a number of industries but the irony of it is that it benefits those who would want to "work from home" or not at all in the office. Unwillingly it creates a new current of how people work and how they will do so in the future.

[Viking]

Prediction: confirmed cases in the US will skyrocket over the next two weeks; say, more than 100 confirmed cases by the end of next week (versus 15 today, not counting the Corona Princess)?

It's Friday and we are already 64% above (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html) that number:


https://i.imgur.com/QqU1EfR.jpg

By next Sunday evening, we could be at 1500 confirmed cases in the US, testing permitting. The markets are not going to like it; I am betting on a 15-20% fall for major stock market indices from current lows over the next few months. There are also still solid chances for more bad news emerging from China as the country tries to return to normal levels of production.

I think that 2020 is going to be quite pivotal for the 2020s due to the virus. Containment seems out of the question, and vaccines and antiviral drugs could take a long time to develop and distribute, so this is going to be costly, and that cost could be enough to topple governments and sway elections.

[Montmorency]

When I said "What is most shocking is that an incompetent response to a disease outbreak is obviously contradictory to Trump's basic political interests" I meant "contrary."


Don't do a racisms (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/vietnamese-curator-dropped-because-of-coronavirus-prejudice).


“I am very sorry to have to cancel your assistance at the fair next week,” Azran wrote to Nguyen. “The coronavirus is causing much anxiety everywhere, and fairly or not, Asians are being seen as carriers of the virus.

“Your presence on the stand would unfortunately create hesitation on the part of the audience to enter the exhibition space. I apologise for this and hope we can meet and perhaps work together in future.”

I know people who are typically quite racist about nonwhites, who are now apparently also deeply aversive toward Italians (?). Not sure if that's a good or a bad sign for life on earth.


Back to Trump (https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1235936090013474821).


Trump, signing the $8.3B coronavirus bill w/Azar standing over him, was asked why he canceled his trip to CDC.

Azar quickly interjected that Trump had sent him to CDC instead.

Trump then clarified that the trip was scuttled b/c CDC was concerned an official there had the virus.

https://www.cbs58.com/news/trump-to-visit-cdc-on-friday-after-reversing-decision-to-cancel


White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham confirmed the visit Friday morning. Earlier, a White House official said that the visit was scrapped because Trump did not want to be a distraction at the agency.

"The President is no longer traveling to Atlanta today," a White House official said. "The CDC has been proactive and prepared since the very beginning and the President does not want to interfere with the CDC's mission to protect the health and welfare of their people and the agency."

But Trump contradicted that message later Friday morning, telling the press he might still go.

"We may go. They thought there was a problem at CDC, somebody that had the virus," Trump said in the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, during a signing of bill to spend more than $8 billion to fight the virus. Trump added that the person in question at the CDC has tested negative for the virus.

"They've tested the person very fully and it was a negative test," Trump said. "I may be going. They're going to see if they can turn it around with Secret Service."

You can never pile on enough.



Economy and travel wise, the global epidemic has hindered significantly a number of industries but the irony of it is that it benefits those who would want to "work from home" or not at all in the office. Unwillingly it creates a new current of how people work and how they will do so in the future.

It could accelerate the administrative shift of universities to online distance-learning platforms.


It's Friday and we are already 64% above (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html) that number:

By next Sunday evening, we could be at 1500 confirmed cases in the US, testing permitting. The markets are not going to like it; I am betting on a 15-20% fall for major stock market indices from current lows over the next few months. There are also still solid chances for more bad news emerging from China as the country tries to return to normal levels of production.

I think that 2020 is going to be quite pivotal for the 2020s due to the virus. Containment seems out of the question, and vaccines and antiviral drugs could take a long time to develop and distribute, so this is going to be costly, and that cost could be enough to topple governments and sway elections.

The US government has, last I heard (https://fortune.com/2020/03/03/coronavirus-us-test/), declined to test people en masse!!! We don't have the foggiest idea of how many are affected and where!

[ReluctantSamurai]

Unwillingly it creates a new current of how people work and how they will do so in the future.

Just the tip of the iceberg, IMHO. There are many scenarios being played out in business and financial circles, and the biggest variable is the length and severity of COVID-19's pandemic.

A few scenarios to date:

www.nytimes.com/2020/02/15/opinion/china-economy-coronavirus.html


This episode will also add momentum to some changes in global supply chains that were already underway. Along with Chinese workers’ rising wages and the prospects of further U.S.-China trade tensions, the epidemic is likely to cause multinational companies to reassess their supply chains and reduce their production footprints in China.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/03/1058601


Responding to questions about whether countries might react to a potential supply-chain squeeze by looking to domestic manufacturers instead, the UNCTAD economists explained that such a measure would unlikely be effective in the short-term.
“China has built a huge logistics - transport logistics - which is like harbours, shipping lanes, airplanes, that actually are able to move all of those goods in and out of China”, Mr. Nicita explained. “Now yes, some industries may be able to find some sort of alternative supplier like in Mexico or East Europe, but that will require even more time, because not only production needs to be moved, but also the infrastructure related to logistics would need to be built.”
Ms. Coke-Hamilton added: “It was the same argument that was used when the US President thought that … imposing certain measures on certain countries would shift production back to the United States. It’s never that easy, because when companies move and they relocate and they set up their industries and their logistics frameworks, it’s very hard to shift in the short term.”

www.hbr.org/2020/03/what-coronavirus-could-mean-for-the-global-economy


Could Covid-19 create its own structural legacy? History suggests that the global economy after a major crisis like Covid-19 will likely be different in a number of significant ways.
• Microeconomic legacy: Crises, including epidemics, can spur the adoption of new technologies and business models. The SARS outbreak of 2003 is often credited with the adoption of online shopping among Chinese consumers, accelerating Alibaba’s rise. As schools have closed in Japan and could plausibly close in the U.S. and other markets, could e-learning and e-delivery of education see a breakthrough? Further, have digital efforts in Wuhan to contain the crisis via smart-phone trackers effectively demonstrated a powerful new public health tool?
• Macroeconomic legacy: Already it looks like the virus will hasten the progress to more decentralized global value chains — essentially the virus adds a biological dimension to the political and institutional forces that have pushed the pre-2016 value chain model into a more fragmented direction.
• Political legacy: Political ramifications are not to be ruled out, globally, as the virus puts to the test various political systems’ ability to effectively protect their populations. Brittle institutions could be exposed, and political shifts triggered. Depending on its duration and severity, Covid-19 could even shape the U.S. presidential election. At the multilateral level, the crisis could be read as a call to more cooperation or conversely push the bipolar centers of geopolitical power further apart.

[Montmorency]

Supply shock supply shock they say, but... the airline and hospitality industries may see a lot of damage from lost revenue. And, overall, all the people out on paychecks or small businesses out on customers, both still paying rent...

Oh hey, bankruptcies.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/05/business/airlines-coronavirus-iata-travel/index.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/virus-claims-its-first-airline-after-u-k-carries-goes-bankrupt-11583408695

[Viking]

The US government has, last I heard (https://fortune.com/2020/03/03/coronavirus-us-test/), declined to test people en masse!!! We don't have the foggiest idea of how many are affected and where!

I get the impression that testing is being ramped up in the US, so that a surge in confirmed cases can be expected now as that number catches up with the spreading that has been going on for a while (and then the surge will continue since the number of cases is currently growing exponentially).

[Montmorency]

I get the impression that testing is being ramped up in the US, so that a surge in confirmed cases can be expected now as that number catches up with the spreading that has been going on for a while (and then the surge will continue since the number of cases is currently growing exponentially).

NY State of Emergency.

I may be off by a bit but cases increased just today from about a dozen confirmed, to nearly a hundred. Time to go shopping I guess. :juggle2:

Edit: I was conflating geographic levels. There were up to 50 in all of NY state confirmed before today.

[Viking]

Draconian measures being introduced in Northern Italy:


Italy's prime minister has said at least 16 million people are now under lock-down in Lombardy region and also in 14 provinces until early April.

[...]

People are unable to enter or leave the whole northern region of Lombardy, home to 10 million people, except for emergency access. Milan is the main city in the region.

[...]

Weddings and funerals have been suspended, as well as religious and cultural events.

Cinemas, night clubs, gyms, swimming pools, museums and ski resorts have been closed.

Restaurants and cafes can open between 06:00 and 18:00 but customers must sit at least a metre apart.

People have been told to stay home as much as possible, and those who break the quarantine could face three months in jail.


Coronavirus: Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51787238)


Why? I suppose this is a hint:


The head of the Lombardy's intensive care crisis unit says the health system is on the brink of collapse, intensive care being set up in hallways. By March 26 they predict ~18,000 #Covid19 cases in Lombardy, of which ~3,000 will need intensive care.

https://twitter.com/RachelDonadio/status/1236430756412567559

This article from 3 March provides a similar picture:


In the Lombardy region of Italy, the epicenter for the novel coronavirus outbreak in the country, officials are looking to pull doctors out of retirement and are fast-tracking nursing students who are close to graduating to help treat patients, the Associated Press reported Monday.

[...]

According to the AP, hospitals in the cities Lodi and Cremona had so many patients coming in last week that they had to close their emergency rooms and send some patients to other facilities. A little under 10% of people with the COVID-19 virus in the region have needed to be admitted to the ICU, the head of the national Civil Protection agency, Angelo Borrelli, told the AP.

"Effectively some of the hospitals in Lombardy are under a stress that is much heavier than what this area can support," Dr. Massimo Galli, the head of infectious disease at Milan's Sacco Hospital, told Sky TG24.

The healthcare system in Italy's Lombardy region is so strained from the new coronavirus that officials are asking doctors to come out of retirement and nursing students are being fast-tracked to graduation (https://www.businessinsider.com/italys-lombardy-regions-healthcare-system-is-crumbling-to-covid-19-2020-3?r=US&IR=T)


I feel pretty confident now when saying that a similar scenario is going to happen in the US, particularly in Washington state. Probably in other places in Western countries as well. Poorer countries will be hit even worse; I imagine a lot of people there will die not just from the virus, but from other causes due to an overloaded healthcare system, something that can also happen in wealthier countries.

I am finally starting to become convinced that this is not a drill; this could happen where I live, too (isn't that the benchmark all humans have?).

[ReluctantSamurai]

I am finally starting to become convinced that this is not a drill; this could happen where I live, too

I am absolutely astounded how nonchalant people are where I live. Yes, there's been the requisite panic-buying of masks, toilet paper, etc., but just yesterday on a local sports-talk radio I listen to, a DJ was bloviating about how he's not going to change his travel plans, and that much of the media coverage of the COVID-19 outbreak is "over-reaction". And there were a lot of phone calls from listeners echoing the same sentiments!

Say what?:crazy: I guess these people haven't taken what they've been watching/reading in the news seriously, YET.......

Panic? No. Take simple some precautions like frequent hand washing, limit face touching as much as possible, and circulate in public only when you must. Only the gods can stand in judgement of that DJ if, through his cavalier attitude, he passes the virus to someone who dies.

[Greyblades]

With the virus being transmissable for a good time before and after the symptoms, the chance of containment being long lost and a second strain emerging, feels like catching it is inevitable at this point for most of the world.

All thats left is to wait for it to hit you tough it out, hope you dont become the unlucky 1-2%. Thank god I am still young in a first world country.

And every bastard that helped this virus along (or created it depending on which theory is correct) will probably comfortably ride it out in a CCP provided gated community.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

That is weird.

The newer strain, and the more aggressive, is the L-type.
The older strain, the s-type, dates back to December or so.

I had thought that viruses tended to mutate towards less aggressive/less virulent strains in order to propogate themselves more effectively without "burning out" the spread possibility through rapid host death etc. This one seems to be doing the opposite.

[Greyblades]

Evolution is a reactionary process, as its low lethality ti begin with it probably isnt getting the impetus to mutate away from killing the host.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Right, this virus is pretty low-lethality, the "less virulant over time" model only applies to something like Syphilis that initially killed everyone infected within weeks or months in a horrifying way, then transmuted into a silent disease that eats you from the inside over hears and decades.

[Greyblades]

Probably should point out I got evolution wrong. Mutation doesnt have impetus per se; it is a random occurance, evolution is when one mutation proves to have an advantage that allows it to thrive, often at the expense of its originating species.

Viruses can get into a position where lethality becomes detrimental; they cant spread because they have shortened their transmission chances too much to ensure continuation. The randomly less lethal mutants that pop up end up outliving and replacing their more lethal cousins.

Coronavirus is a long way from that so any mutants that increase lethality wont die off on thier own any faster than the original.

[Viking]

Bruce Aylward of the WHO says he did not see any evidence of a huge body of undiagnosed COVID-19 cases when he visited China, and that the case fatality rate is likely somewhere between 1-2%:


There’s this big panic in the West over asymptomatic cases. Many people are asymptomatic when tested, but develop symptoms within a day or two.

In Guangdong, they went back and retested 320,000 samples originally taken for influenza surveillance and other screening. Less than 0.5 percent came up positive, which is about the same number as the 1,500 known Covid cases in the province. (Covid-19 is the medical name of the illness caused by the coronavirus.)

There is no evidence that we’re seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What we’re seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground.

[...]

I’ve heard it said that “the mortality rate is not so bad because there are actually way more mild cases.” Sorry — the same number of people that were dying, still die. The real case fatality rate is probably what it is outside Hubei Province, somewhere between 1 and 2 percent.

Inside China’s All-Out War on the Coronavirus (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html)

As one might remember, this should make it an order of magnitude more deadly than the seasonal flu, which I guess squares well with overwhelmed hospitals for such an infectious disease.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I’m Canadian. This is the Wayne Gretzky of viruses — people didn’t think it was big enough or fast enough to have the impact it does

This. Outside of China, efforts to deal with COVID-19 have been mostly reactionary. I would postulate that countries don't want to rock the economic boat, so they take a wait-and-see approach, Italy being the prime example. And now look...an entire province of 16 million on lock-down. Too late.


As soon as you find clusters, you shut schools, theaters, restaurants. Only Wuhan and the cities near it went into total lockdown.


Back of the envelope, it’s hundreds of thousands of people in China that did not get Covid-19 because of this aggressive response.

Seeing what I've been seeing, if other countries, particularly my own US of A, doesn't follow this protocol, it's going to be a very loooong spring and early summer.


75 to 80 percent of all clusters are in families. You get the odd ones in hospitals or restaurants or prisons, but the vast majority are in families.

Be curious to know if this holds true outside of China:inquisitive:


The government made it clear: testing is free. And if it was Covid-19, when your insurance ended, the state picked up everything.


In the U.S., that’s a barrier to speed. People think: “If I see my doctor, it’s going to cost me $100. If I end up in the I.C.U., what’s it going to cost me?” That’ll kill you. That’s what could wreak havoc. This is where universal health care coverage and security intersect. The U.S. has to think this through.

Yep, and the US could be in BIG trouble, especially with a president who thought COVID-19 was just another flu, and his crony Pence who's response to an HIV outbreak when he was governor of Indiana, was abysmal:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/02/how-mike-pence-made-indianas-hiv-outbreak-worse-118648


Pence’s handling of the Indiana HIV outbreak is a case study in mismanagement of a public health crisis. His inaction as governor gave Austin, Indiana with a population of around 4,200, a higher HIV incidence than “any country in sub-Saharan Africa"

Yeah, Donny Baby, just the man to put in charge:rolleyes:


They’re mobilized, like in a war, and it’s fear of the virus that was driving them.

God help us here, because we can't even provide test kits that actually function:wall:

[Montmorency]

Bruce Aylward of the WHO says he did not see any evidence of a huge body of undiagnosed COVID-19 cases when he visited China, and that the case fatality rate is likely somewhere between 1-2%:

Inside China’s All-Out War on the Coronavirus (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html)

As one might remember, this should make it an order of magnitude more deadly than the seasonal flu, which I guess squares well with overwhelmed hospitals for such an infectious disease.

Aylward reports remarkable success from China's efforts, hundreds of thousands of infections averted. Hopefully so.

But we don't really have political will or implements to impose such a response, which included concentrating tens of thousands of medical personnel at the epicenter, hundreds of whom were sickened (with some deaths).


Seeing what I've been seeing, if other countries, particularly my own US of A, doesn't follow this protocol, it's going to be a very loooong spring and early summer.


What I've been reading (https://twitter.com/Farzad_MD/status/1236393626760032257) assumes it's too late to contain with sustained community spread, and that we'd be better off shifting resources to mitigating the effects.

23355

[ReluctantSamurai]

But we don't really have political will or implements to impose such a response

What we have here is a major cluster@#$%:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve


In principle, many hospital and academic labs around the country have the capability to carry out tests themselves. The PCR reaction uses so-called primers, short stretches of DNA, to find viral sequences. The CDC website posts the primers used in its test, and WHO publicly catalogs other primers and protocols, too. Well-equipped state or local labs can use these—or come up with their own—to produce what are known as a “laboratory-developed tests” for in-house use.

But at the moment, they’re not allowed to do that without FDA approval. When the United States declared the outbreak a public health emergency on 31 January, a bureaucratic process kicked in that requires FDA’s “emergency use approval” for any tests. “The declaration of a public health emergency did exactly what it shouldn’t have. It limited the diagnostic capacity of this country,” Mina says. “It’s insane.”


The World Health Organization (WHO) has shipped testing kits to 57 countries. China had five commercial tests on the market 1 month ago and can now do up to 1.6 million tests a week; South Korea has tested 65,000 people so far. The U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in contrast, has done only 459 tests since the epidemic began.

Like I said earlier, god help us here in the States, because our government and the bureaucracy surrounding the CDC, is going to make things much worse than they need to be...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Probably should point out I got evolution wrong. Mutation doesnt have impetus per se; it is a random occurance, evolution is when one mutation proves to have an advantage that allows it to thrive, often at the expense of its originating species.

Viruses can get into a position where lethality becomes detrimental; they cant spread because they have shortened their transmission chances too much to ensure continuation. The randomly less lethal mutants that pop up end up outliving and replacing their more lethal cousins.

Coronavirus is a long way from that so any mutants that increase lethality wont die off on thier own any faster than the original.

Especially if the mutant is more infectious, offsetting any penalty for being more deadly - although I'm not sure this one is actually more deadly so much as it will infect more people and therefore more will die.

[Greyblades]

Three cheers for the saudis dropping oil prices right as the panic hit the markets... (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51796806)

You'd think a price drop in crude would have positive knock on effects rather than bad ones what with its main value being primarily what it can be turned into. The stock market is wierd.

[Montmorency]

DONALD TRUMP:
So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!



What we have here is a major cluster@#$%:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve


Point taken, thought that article was published at the end of February. I'd imagine the situation has somewhat improved since then. On the other hand...

https://twitter.com/freedlander/status/1236643875508420614


Email from my doctor’s office this am: “At this time, despite what you hear from the White House, we are not able to test our patients.”

More: “We have to triage you and then get permission from the Department of Health based on an algorithm.”

Our very large local medical group sent this email message on 3/4/20: At this time, no physician offices have the ability to test for #coronavirus. The #COVID19 test can only be done by New York State and @CDCgov

Uhhhh....


And a few days ago the CPAC conservative conference, with POTUS in attendance, was exposed to 2019-nCov. Ted Cruz has self-isolated.


And Darkness and Decay and the Redcap Death held illimitable dominion over all.


Also, these two pieces of media are apparently NOT satire:

Classic leader principle: US Surgeon General: "The president - he sleeps less than I do, and he's healther than what I am"
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1236669894747398144

Nero fiddling: Trump: "Who knows what this means, but it sounds good to me!"
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1236778368533700609



Bob Page: Your appointment to FEMA should be finalized within the week. I've already discussed the matter with the Senator.
Walton Simons: I take it he was agreeable?
Page: He didn't really have a choice.
Simons: Has he been infected?
Page: Ah yes, most certainly. When I mentioned we could put him on the priority list for the Ambrosia vaccine, he was so willing it was almost pathetic.
Simons: This plague — the rioting is intensifying to the point where we may not be able to contain it.
Page: Why contain it? Let it spill over into the schools and churches. Let the bodies pile up in the streets. In the end, they'll beg us to save them.
Simons: I've received reports of armed attacks on shipments. There's not enough vaccine to go around, and the underclasses are starting to get desperate.
Page: Of course they're desperate. They can smell their deaths, and the sound they'll make rattling their cages will serve as a warning to the rest.



Three cheers for the saudis dropping oil prices right as the panic hit the markets... (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51796806)

You'd think a price drop in crude would have positive knock on effects rather than bad ones what with its main value being primarily what it can be turned into. The stock market is wierd.

According to the link, the row is such that Saudi-led OPEC wanted to cut production to keep prices stable, but Russia disagreed on grounds that a production cut would advantage the US shale industry. The effect is Saudis nix the deal and move to increase production. Just as overvalued stocks are popping, supply chains are disrupted, and demand/consumer confidence is cratering amidst the coronavirus emergency.

Interesting connections: Apparently the shale fracking industry in the US is like Uber: overleveraged, oversupplied in a market with depressed prices, premised on misleading or deluding investors, near bankruptcy having lost billions nonstop for years. A downturn now probably does a lot of damage to shale gas and oil, right?

Also, for the first time in history the 10-year US Treasury yield has come below 1%. No idea what that means, though I figure it's more free money the federal government is leaving on the table in refusing to commit to deficit spending.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Point taken, thought that article was published at the end of February. I'd imagine the situation has somewhat improved since then.

Say what you will about the Chinese...love 'em, hate 'em, indifferent, but they went from thinking about suppressing the existence of COVID-19 (like they did with SARS), to being all in. And despite the "all in" approach to containing the virus, 80k+ infections/3k+ deaths later, they've seen their first declines in new cases and deaths since the outbreak began in Dec 2019. If that trend continues, then every single governing body in the world needs to wake up from la-la land (or it can't possibly happen here), and adopt the same tactics, or something similar.

If you take the wait-and-see approach, Italy happens. This sucker moves so fast, that if you hesitate....it's too late. Given the inept, and insanely partisan leadership we have here in the US, I don't see the clear and determined effort that the Chinese have put forth. Like I said earlier, it's going to be a long, long descent into hell for US citizens, before we can begin a recovery.

I just saw this:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/trump-coronavirus-help-economy-travel-stock-market.html


At the same time, I have to say, people are now staying in the United States, spending their money in the U.S. — and I like that. People are now staying in the United States, spending their money in the U.S., and I like that. I’ve been after that for a long time.

(This as a reaction to the huge downturn in overseas airline flights.):no:

Probably an overreaction, but I'm selling all my stuff and moving to Tibet, where I will spend the rest of my days meditating on how stupid some world leaders can be~;)

[Montmorency]

Reminder:

https://i.imgur.com/3upXiXB.jpg

[a completely inoffensive name]

Picture is funny, but if they really didn't want oils on the hardware it would have been stored in a cleanroom.

[Montmorency]

Picture is funny, but if they really didn't want oils on the hardware it would have been stored in a cleanroom.

Equipment can always be cleaned, it's not an imminent safety hazard.

But what's the point? The story behind the picture is that Marco Rubio "dared" Pence to touch it. These people think it's cool and good to make a mess that professionals in the background will clean up for them. It's a mindset highly conducive to incompetence and negligence, without even taking into consideration everything else we know about them.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Equipment can always be cleaned, it's not an imminent safety hazard.

Just to be annoying, it depends on the nature of the equipment/process.

Semiconductor manufacturing is on one end of the extreme as far as environmental deviation.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Italy is now in complete lockdown.

It looks like travel between regions is basically going to be stopped completely, entry and exit to the country severely restricted, schools and universities to close.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51810673

People will need to continue to work, though, becaUSE THE BASIC FUNCTIONS OF THE ECONOMY, FOOD DISTRIBUTION ETC. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I thought this article (published in Nov 2017 and authored by noted historian John M. Barry) pointed out some striking parallels from 1918's deadly H1N1 outbreak to the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. Obviously two different viruses; over 100 years of medical advances; a very different world than now:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/

What's striking to me about the article (among other things) was this:


That is why, in my view, the most important lesson from 1918 is to tell the truth. Though that idea is incorporated into every preparedness plan I know of, its actual implementation will depend on the character and leadership of the people in charge when a crisis erupts.

I recall participating in a pandemic “war game” in Los Angeles involving area public health officials. Before the exercise began, I gave a talk about what happened in 1918, how society broke down, and emphasized that to retain the public’s trust, authorities had to be candid. “You don’t manage the truth,” I said. “You tell the truth.” Everyone shook their heads in agreement.

Next, the people running the game revealed the day’s challenge to the participants: A severe pandemic influenza virus was spreading around the world. It had not officially reached California, but a suspected case—the severity of the symptoms made it seem so—had just surfaced in Los Angeles. The news media had learned of it and were demanding a press conference.

The participant with the first move was a top-ranking public health official. What did he do? He declined to hold a press conference, and instead just released a statement: More tests are required. The patient might not have pandemic influenza. There is no reason for concern.

I was stunned. This official had not actually told a lie, but he had deliberately minimized the danger; whether or not this particular patient had the disease, a pandemic was coming. The official’s unwillingness to answer questions from the press or even acknowledge the pandemic’s inevitability meant that citizens would look elsewhere for answers, and probably find a lot of bad ones. Instead of taking the lead in providing credible information he instantly fell behind the pace of events. He would find it almost impossible to get ahead of them again. He had, in short, shirked his duty to the public, risking countless lives.

And that was only a game.

Does anyone else think that in some respects we haven't learned much in 100 years about dealing with pandemics?:shrug:

[Greyblades]

Considering this time around it was the chinese who first encountered it I think it was less lack of understanding and more the consequnces of being seen to assume responsability.

Admittedly we arent exactly seeing an overflow of candidness from our own Leaders about this.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Given the "informed" nature of many of our fellow citizens, coupled with the inevitably conflict/blame framing of media reportage, we have trained our leaders to obfuscate and sidle away from any fixed response. While this is somewhat true in all things, it is especial true of natural disasters and epidemics. There only choice is to lose and look bad.

Science says stick to the truth and spread the word -- which will do as much/more than anything to minimize the impact -- but the public WILL focus on the outliers of highest risk and demand something be done about them and that their security be absolutely preserved. Never mind the fact that absolute security with such things is impossible, and that the most effective and least invasive counters have already been put forward by the scientific truth-sayers, more will be demanded and the politicians know they will be blamed.

Do nothing? Blame there too, of course, for inaction. If the pol stands there and asserts -- not much to do, just let the med professionals get on with their work -- they will be pilloried for not doing enough.

Public 'dog-and-pony' shows that do little but "dress up" the promulgation of basic information -- repeated hourly to feed the 24-hour news cycle -- with a pol looking "calm" becomes the only rational response from the pol's end of things.

So yes, "truth" is the answer -- but the answer cannot suffice the public need for immediacy and totality in response.


On the bright side, the public panic over a moderately more deadly pandemic than is the annual pandemic of garden-variety influenza will probably save more us from more flu deaths than in many a previous year.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Admittedly we arent exactly seeing an overflow of candidness from our own Leaders about this.

Pretty much Mr. Barry's point, no? The worst case scenario of this being played out at the moment is Iran:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663/

Don't know if all those figures are correct (there are a lot of debatable assumptions being used), but if infections run at even 10% or less of Mr. Wood's calculations, it's very, very, sobering.

THIS is what Mr. Barry was referring to when he said public officials that shirk their duty to the public, put lives at risk:


On February 21, Iran conducted the latest in a series of sham elections in which only government-selected candidates could run for office. To show disapproval, many Iranians refuse to vote, and as participation has dropped, the appearance of electoral legitimacy has dropped as well. Iran’s government told its people that the United States had hyped COVID-19 to suppress turnout, and Tehran vowed to punish anyone spreading rumors about a serious epidemic. Forty-three percent of Iranians voted, unaware that the outbreak had already begun. Quick action could have allowed quarantines to be put in place.

:shame:

[Greyblades]

Pretty much Mr. Barry's point, no?

Yeah. I think I'm having a hangup about the chinese government, they pretty much willfully botched the containment and outright sabotaged international recognition of the problem to save face; a level corruption, neglect and downright warped priorities that makes the west's reaction look pristine in comparison.

Also makes much of the west's reluctance to even acknowledge this intensely grating.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Public 'dog-and-pony' shows that do little but "dress up" the promulgation of basic information -- repeated hourly to feed the 24-hour news cycle -- with a pol looking "calm" becomes the only rational response from the pol's end of things

Of course there is a certain amount hyperbole used to generate ratings and "click-fests", and calm, clear thinking is needed when facing any crisis. It comes down to having a clear & concise plan (even if you have to make it on the fly as the Chinese have), and more importantly, having the determination to carry it out. We are going to see how the wheat separates itself from the chaff in the coming weeks, I think....

[Strike For The South]

In about 10 days we will reap the arrogance that we have sewn.

[Rumors] I'm hearing a lot through the grapevine and none if its good. Everything from NDAs with hospital workers to mild/moderate/asymptomatic cases simply being sent home to be deliberately undercounted. [Rumors]

I saw that graphic from the AHA 96 million infected, 480,000 dead. That is a joke and operates on a best case scenario for lethality and false assumption that the hospitals wont be overwhelmed. The hospitals will be overwhelmed and medical staff will have to make tough descions. I have a nasty feeling we will be putting a lot of people in the ground. I hope this isnt the case but the Feds seem content to ride this bad boy out until they can't.

We knew and we did nothing

Wash your hands, work from home, don't shake, if you can shop for the old people in your life, please do it

[ReluctantSamurai]

they pretty much willfully botched the containment and outright sabotaged international recognition of the problem to save face

Disagree. They started out that way, I think, but when it quickly became apparent what they were dealing with, they put all the resources they had into containment (has an area the size of Hubei Province ever been put on total lock-down before?) and mitigating the on-going epidemic by setting up huge field hospitals, fast-tracking testing, putting nearly the entire country's medical personnel onto the problem (and some of them died as a result), and taking the financial burden of doctor visits, etc.

I repost this link of an interview with assistant director general and veteran epidemiologist Bruce Aylward from the WHO:

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china


I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. Another big takeaway is that even when you have substantial transmission with a lot of clusters — because people are looking at the situation in some countries now and going, “Oh, gosh, what can be done?” — what China demonstrates is if you settle down, roll up your sleeves, and begin that systematic work of case finding and contact tracing, you definitely can change the shape of the outbreak, take the heat out of it, and prevent a lot of people from getting sick and a lot of the most vulnerable from dying.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

accidental double -- internet on this end. Apologies.

[Greyblades]

Disagree. They started out that way, I think

Thats my point, they started that way; screwed the opening stage horrifically, arrested whistleblowers (https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-whistleblowers-speak-out-vanish-2020-2?r=US&IR=T), pressued the WHO into advising against trade and travel restrictions against China (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-05/who-coronavirus-update-china-travel/11930752) and only got into gear only once it couldnt be covered up, ensuring it went worldwide.

I dont think the chinese are doing all that well right now; the converted hospital collapse two days ago reinforces my view that they are not beyond cutting corners and lying about the reality on the ground even in the midst of the epidemic.

[ReluctantSamurai]

and only got into gear only once it couldnt be covered up, ensuring it went worldwide

Can you truly contain such a contagious virus? I would say no, especially in our global society. I will take the opposite view that China's quick response greatly reduced the exposure to the rest of the world until countries like South Korea, Italy, and Iran undid all that work as far as the rest of the world is concerned. And shortly, I believe, you will be able to add the United States to the list of countries moving too slowly and indecisively to slow this critter down.

The fact that China was a bit reticent, at first, doesn't negate their response and methodology once they went "all in" to containment.

[Montmorency]

Seamus, delayed double-post?


Just to be annoying, it depends on the nature of the equipment/process.

Semiconductor manufacturing is on one end of the extreme as far as environmental deviation.

https://i.imgur.com/9lzgex0.png


In about 10 days we will reap the arrogance that we have sewn.

Long time no see. Why 10 days?


Can you truly contain such a contagious virus? I would say no, especially in our global society. I will take the opposite view that China's quick response greatly reduced the exposure to the rest of the world until countries like South Korea, Italy, and Iran undid all that work as far as the rest of the world is concerned. And shortly, I believe, you will be able to add the United States to the list of countries moving too slowly and indecisively to slow this critter down.

The fact that China was a bit reticent, at first, doesn't negate their response and methodology once they went "all in" to containment.

If accurate, Aylward's report is promising, but as the Chinese adage goes, it's too early to say.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Wash your hands, work from home, don't shake, if you can shop for the old people in your life, please do it

You are asking too much.

[a completely inoffensive name]

The unfortunate reality is that epidemics will never go away so long as charlatans and the ignorant have full freedom to push dangerous notions about health and vaccines.
The ability for disease to circulate rests on the small percent who are susceptible to believe anything they read.
We would have to roll in more types of speech as prohibited under a 'threat to the public safety' kind of rationale but I don't know if we would be comfortable with such a thing.

Question for Strike..and others:
It is one thing to yell fire in a crowded theater, is it the same to tell young mothers that vaccines will make their baby autistic?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The unfortunate reality is that epidemics will never go away so long as charlatans and the ignorant have full freedom to push dangerous notions about health and vaccines.
The ability for disease to circulate rests on the small percent who are susceptible to believe anything they read.
We would have to roll in more types of speech as prohibited under a 'threat to the public safety' kind of rationale but I don't know if we would be comfortable with such a thing.

Question for Strike..and others:
It is one thing to yell fire in a crowded theater, is it the same to tell young mothers that vaccines will make their baby autistic?

If only we could outlaw ignorance and stupidity.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Can you truly contain such a contagious virus? I would say no, especially in our global society. I will take the opposite view that China's quick response greatly reduced the exposure to the rest of the world until countries like South Korea, Italy, and Iran undid all that work as far as the rest of the world is concerned. And shortly, I believe, you will be able to add the United States to the list of countries moving too slowly and indecisively to slow this critter down.

The fact that China was a bit reticent, at first, doesn't negate their response and methodology once they went "all in" to containment.

In the initial stages?

Yes, you absolutely can - all evidence points to a deliberate cover up at the provincial level and it was only until the Chinese national government got involved that the response became in any way effective or geared towards public safety.

[Viking]

Ye gods, confirmed Danish cases up 191% in a single day, from 90 on Monday to 262 Today (https://www.berlingske.dk/danmark/antal-coronasmittede-i-danmark-tager-stoerste-hop-paa-en-dag).

I have not been able to find a context or explanation for this increase; tough luck for Denmark, I guess. On the same day, Norwegian health authories declare that they for the first time have identified cases of untraceable virus transmission, and recommend employers to consider letting more employees work from home. So it begins.

The city authorities here introduced the one metre rule for e.g. restaurants; but no direct restrictions on the giant petri dish that is public transport.



The situation in France, Spain, Germany and the UK appears to be spiralling out of control, and there are several other countries in the same boat.

If China really can get their outbreak under control, I wonder how realistic it is for the country to avoid reintroduction of the virus from abroad.

[Pannonian]

In the initial stages?

Yes, you absolutely can - all evidence points to a deliberate cover up at the provincial level and it was only until the Chinese national government got involved that the response became in any way effective or geared towards public safety.

There will probably be a few more deaths once all this is over. With the bill sent to the victims' families.

[Montmorency]

Pelosi and Schumer (https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/3820-0), the Congressional Democratic leadership, have a decent outline for a federal response to the crisis.


Paid sick leave — workers impacted by quarantine orders or responsible for caring for children impacted by school closures must receive paid sick leave to alleviate the devastating consequences of lost wages;

Enhanced Unemployment Insurance — we must ensure unemployment insurance benefits are available and sufficient for workers who may lose their jobs from the economic impacts of the epidemic;

Food security — we must expand SNAP, WIC, school lunch and other initiatives and suspend implementation of any regulations that weaken federal food assistance, in order to ensure vulnerable populations do not lose access to food during this epidemic;

Clear protections for frontline workers — we must have clear standards and sufficient distribution of necessary protective equipment for health care and other workers who are in contact with people who have been exposed or are suffering from the virus as well as the people responsible for cleaning buildings and public facilities;

Widespread and free coronavirus testing — to control the spread of coronavirus, the administration must ensure that all Americans who need an evaluation are able to access locations for cost-free testing and rapidly increase the unacceptably low daily test processing capacity inside the U.S.;

Affordable treatment for all — patients must be reimbursed for any non-covered coronavirus-related costs, or else the epidemic will be worsened because Americans will fear they cannot afford the costs associated with treatment;

Anti-price gouging protections — we must ensure that Americans are protected from price gouging of medical and non-medical essentials during this emergency;

Increase capacity of medical system — we must use our emergency response mechanisms to mobilize resources and facilities in order to respond to surges in demand.

Trump meanwhile suggested bailing out (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/trump-coronavirus-bailout-oil-hotel-industry-stimulus-recession.html) various industries from the top, among other proposals that no one else in his government appears to have been informed of.


Re: Chinese response, a more general examination (http://crookedtimber.org/2019/11/25/seeing-like-a-finite-state-machine/) of digital authoritarianism that I posted weeks ago.

[tweet]

The conjecture (and it is no more than a plausible conjecture) is simple, but it straightforwardly contradicts the collective wisdom that is emerging in Washington DC, and other places too. This collective wisdom is that China is becoming a kind of all-efficient Technocratic Leviathan thanks to the combination of machine learning and authoritarianism. Authoritarianism has always been plagued with problems of gathering and collating information and of being sufficiently responsive to its citizens’ needs to remain stable. Now, the story goes, a combination of massive data gathering and machine learning will solve the basic authoritarian dilemma. When every transaction that a citizen engages in is recorded by tiny automatons riding on the devices they carry in their hip pockets, when cameras on every corner collect data on who is going where, who is talking to whom, and uses facial recognition technology to distinguish ethnicity and identify enemies of the state, a new and far more powerful form of authoritarianism will emerge. Authoritarianism then, can emerge as a more efficient competitor that can beat democracy at its home game (some fear this; some welcome it).

The theory behind this is one of strength reinforcing strength – the strengths of ubiquitous data gathering and analysis reinforcing the strengths of authoritarian repression to create an unstoppable juggernaut of nearly perfectly efficient oppression. Yet there is another story to be told – of weakness reinforcing weakness. Authoritarian states were always particularly prone to the deficiencies identified in James Scott’s Seeing Like a State – the desire to make citizens and their doings legible to the state, by standardizing and categorizing them, and reorganizing collective life in simplified ways, for example by remaking cities so that they were not organic structures that emerged from the doings of their citizens, but instead grand chessboards with ordered squares and boulevards, reducing all complexities to a square of planed wood. The grand state bureaucracies that were built to carry out these operations were responsible for multitudes of horrors, but also for the crumbling of the Stalinist state into a Brezhnevian desuetude, where everyone pretended to be carrying on as normal because everyone else was carrying on too. The deficiencies of state action, and its need to reduce the world into something simpler that it could comprehend and act upon created a kind of feedback loop, in which imperfections of vision and action repeatedly reinforced each other.

So what might a similar analysis say about the marriage of authoritarianism and machine learning? Something like the following, I think. There are two notable problems with machine learning. One – that while it can do many extraordinary things, it is not nearly as universally effective as the mythology suggests. The other is that it can serve as a magnifier for already existing biases in the data. The patterns that it identifies may be the product of the problematic data that goes in, which is (to the extent that it is accurate) often the product of biased social processes. When this data is then used to make decisions that may plausibly reinforce those processes (by singling e.g. particular groups that are regarded as problematic out for particular police attention, leading them to be more liable to be arrested and so on), the bias may feed upon itself.

This is a substantial problem in democratic societies, but it is a problem where there are at least some counteracting tendencies. The great advantage of democracy is its openness to contrary opinions and divergent perspectives. This opens up democracy to a specific set of destabilizing attacks but it also means that there are countervailing tendencies to self-reinforcing biases. When there are groups that are victimized by such biases, they may mobilize against it (although they will find it harder to mobilize against algorithms than overt discrimination). When there are obvious inefficiencies or social, political or economic problems that result from biases, then there will be ways for people to point out these inefficiencies or problems.

These correction tendencies will be weaker in authoritarian societies; in extreme versions of authoritarianism, they may barely even exist. Groups that are discriminated against will have no obvious recourse. Major mistakes may go uncorrected: they may be nearly invisible to a state whose data is polluted both by the means employed to observe and classify it, and the policies implemented on the basis of this data. A plausible feedback loop would see bias leading to error leading to further bias, and no ready ways to correct it. This of course, will be likely to be reinforced by the ordinary politics of authoritarianism, and the typical reluctance to correct leaders, even when their policies are leading to disaster. The flawed ideology of the leader (We must all study Comrade Xi thought to discover the truth!) and of the algorithm (machine learning is magic!) may reinforce each other in highly unfortunate ways.

In short, there is a very plausible set of mechanisms under which machine learning and related techniques may turn out to be a disaster for authoritarianism, reinforcing its weaknesses rather than its strengths, by increasing its tendency to bad decision making, and reducing further the possibility of negative feedback that could help correct against errors. This disaster would unfold in two ways. The first will involve enormous human costs: self-reinforcing bias will likely increase discrimination against out-groups, of the sort that we are seeing against the Uighur today. The second will involve more ordinary self-ramifying errors, that may lead to widespread planning disasters, which will differ from those described in Scott’s account of High Modernism in that they are not as immediately visible, but that may also be more pernicious, and more damaging to the political health and viability of the regime for just that reason.

So in short, this conjecture would suggest that the conjunction of AI and authoritarianism (has someone coined the term ‘aithoritarianism’ yet? I’d really prefer not to take the blame), will have more or less the opposite effects of what people expect. It will not be Singapore writ large, and perhaps more brutal. Instead, it will be both more radically monstrous and more radically unstable.

Like all monotheoretic accounts, you should treat this post with some skepticism – political reality is always more complex and muddier than any abstraction. There are surely other effects (another, particularly interesting one for big countries such as China, is to relax the assumption that the state is a monolith, and to think about the intersection between machine learning and warring bureaucratic factions within the center, and between the center and periphery).Yet I think that it is plausible that it at least maps one significant set of causal relationships, that may push (in combination with, or against, other structural forces) towards very different outcomes than the conventional wisdom imagines. Comments, elaborations, qualifications and disagreements welcome.

[ReluctantSamurai]

If accurate, Aylward's report is promising, but as the Chinese adage goes, it's too early to say

It is too early to say. Let's just hope there won't be a second tidal wave like the H1N1 outbreak of 1918 that did the vast majority of the killing.


Yes, you absolutely can

With a population approaching 20 million just in metro Wuhan, and close to 60 million in Hubei Province, how exactly is that done? Given that we are dealing with a new virus, that noone had any idea how contagious it was, how it spread, how lethal it was, etc., what exactly would you have done?

I am in no way exonerating the political manipulation that went on at first, but once data started coming in, all resources were brought to bear to contain it. Now....finger-pointing aside, what does it say about all the other governments and health organizations who have had several months to see how the infection unfolded in China, and what it takes to contain it (for the time being), and STILL be clueless about what they're dealing with?

Here in the States, we still have people saying this is all media hype and trotting out statistics on how many people die from influenza which gets much less coverage. Ignorance is bliss......until you or someone you know gets sick.

The time for recriminations can come later, AFAIAC. This is happening, governments and health organizations can either chose to move quickly and decisively, or suffer the consequences.

[Pannonian]

Pelosi and Schumer (https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/3820-0), the Congressional Democratic leadership, have a decent outline for a federal response to the crisis.



Trump meanwhile suggested bailing out (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/trump-coronavirus-bailout-oil-hotel-industry-stimulus-recession.html) various industries from the top, among other proposals that no one else in his government appears to have been informed of.


Re: Chinese response, a more general examination (http://crookedtimber.org/2019/11/25/seeing-like-a-finite-state-machine/) of digital authoritarianism that I posted weeks ago.


China's power in the Web isn't due to previously unknown astute use of AI. It's due to having an army of tech-savvy nationalists. Chinese nationalism is a strong identity in China, with its nearest equivalent being the extreme patriots in the US who hold the flag sacred. Except that it's the rule rather than the exception. With enough of them technically educated, they can do things that you don't need AI to do.

[Pannonian]

Our Health Minister has the virus.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Our Health Minister has the virus.

For those oversees this is not the same person as the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock - it is Nadine Dorries.

[Montmorency]

Cute.

23357


Our Health Minister has the virus.

Oh?

23358
23359


Matt Gaetz Wore a Gas Mask to Mock Coronavirus Concerns. Now He’s in Quarantine. (https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/03/matt-gaetz-coronavirus-quarantine/)




“HE’S DEFINITELY MELTING DOWN OVER THIS”: TRUMP, GERMAPHOBE IN CHIEF, STRUGGLES TO CONTROL THE COVID-19 STORY (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/trump-germaphobe-in-chief-struggles-to-control-the-covid-19-story)

Ever since the coronavirus exploded outside of China at the end of January, Donald Trump has treated the public health crisis as a media war that he could win with the right messaging. But with cases now documented in 34 states and markets plunging, Republicans close to Trump fear his rosy assessments are fundamentally detached from reality in ways that will make the epidemic worse. “He is trying to control the narrative and he can’t,” a former West Wing official told me.

The problem is that the crisis fits into his preexisting and deeply held worldview—that the media is always searching for a story to bring him down. Covid-19 is merely the latest instance, and he’s reacting in familiar ways. “So much FAKE NEWS!” Trump tweeted this morning. “He wants Justice to open investigations of the media for market manipulation,” a source close to the White House told me. Trump is also frustrated with his West Wing for not getting a handle on the news cycle. “He’s very frustrated he doesn’t have a good team around him,” a former White House official said. On Friday he forced out acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney and replaced him with former House Freedom Caucus chair Mark Meadows. Trump thought the virus was “getting beyond Mick,” a person briefed on the internal discussions said. Trump has also complained that economic adviser Larry Kudlow is not doing enough to calm jittery markets. Last week Kudlow refused Trump’s request that Kudlow hold an on-camera press briefing, sources said. “Larry didn’t want to have to take questions about coronavirus,” a person close to Kudlow told me. “Larry’s not a doctor. How can he answer questions about something he doesn’t know?”

Trump found a willing surrogate in Kellyanne Conway, but Conway’s dubious claim on Friday that the virus “is being contained” only made the P.R. situation worse.

Trump’s efforts to take control of the story himself have so far failed. A source said Trump was pleased with ratings for the Fox News town hall last Thursday, but he was furious with how he looked on television. “Trump said afterwards that the lighting was bad,” a source briefed on the conversation said. “He said, ‘We need Bill Shine back in here. Bill would never allow this.’”

Trump’s press conference on Friday at the CDC was a Trumpian classic, heavy on braggadocio and almost entirely lacking a sense of the seriousness of the crisis. “I like this stuff. I really get it,” Trump told reporters, his face partly hidden under a red “Keep America Great” hat. “People are surprised that I understand it. Every one of these doctors say, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should’ve done that instead of running for president.” At another point Trump compared the situation to the Ukraine shakedown. “The [coronavirus] tests are all perfect. Like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect,” he said.

Stories about Trump’s coronavirus fears have spread through the White House. Last week Trump told aides he’s afraid journalists will try to purposefully contract coronavirus to give it to him on Air Force One, a person close to the administration told me.

Pressure from the public health community is mounting on Trump to cancel his mass rallies, but Trump is pushing back. “He is going to resist until the very last minute,” a former West Wing official said. “He may take suggestions to stop shaking hands, but in terms of shutting stuff down, his position is: ‘No, I’m not going to do it.’”


Get angry you sons of b*****s.



EDIT:

Oh crud. Samurai, you're going to be tickled by this one (https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1237453505532776449).


European solidarity meets Covid19: China donates 100,000 masks to Italy. Germany bans export of surgical masks. Europe not coming to Italy’s rescue when it was needed will be remembered by voters for a very long time.

But Germany letting Italy down is a tradition of deep antiquity.

[a completely inoffensive name]

My concert is not getting cancelled because the CDC hasn't said there is a problem yet lol. So they have hand sanitizer dispensers everywhere and called it a day.
Since I either go and enjoy myself or lose out on a lot of money out of fear, I guess I am going.

I've told all my relatives that I will not be seeing them for several weeks and my work is majority remote/away from people.

[rory_20_uk]

There is a Hail Mary upside to all of this in the USA. Bear with me.

The most Trumpian of Trump supporters are the older with generally crappier jobs.
They also love Fox News and tend to believe it.
They won't be able to get treatment even if they acknowledged they were ill.

So with a lot of luck, perhaps we'll see a vast number of Trump voters dying over the next month or so - in their seat in front of the TV with their favourite gun in their arms.

I don't know it would be enough to truly alter the outcome of an election - but quote Bill Hicks - "Fucking celebrate. There's one less moron in the world."

~:smoking:

[Strike For The South]

Question for Strike..and others:
It is one thing to yell fire in a crowded theater, is it the same to tell young mothers that vaccines will make their baby autistic?

Would be nearly impossible to prove.

[Rumors] Mortality rate in Italy reaching 8%, Wartime triage no one over 65 with comorbidites being given oxygen [Rumors]
So If China says the mortality rate is 3.4% we can safely assume it is 5-6%.


Who wants to play with numbers?

%of people over 65:
Italy 23
China 9
USA 15
UK 18

% of Smokers (Note this skews older and does not include quttiers)
Italy 23
China 28 Including more than half of all men!
USA 15
UK 14

% of Hypertension
Italy 36%
China 26%
USA 45%
Uk 27%

Note that the US has a lower bar for hypertension than Europe and China

Obesity Rate:
Italy 21%
China 6%
USA 40%
UK 29%

So while the Chinese be slow playing the actual numbers but lets trust their sex difference numbers in mortaility 2.8% for women 4.7% for men. HERE is the interesting part. When you account for the fact that more Chinese women are 65+ and add into the fact that more than 94% of the total smokers are men, that really stars to dovetail.

Now we have the case of 38 year old recovered marathon runner in Italy who was critical for a while. When the backtracked his infection they found he ran a marathon after he had come into contact with the virus. For those of who don't know, running a marathon is hell on the body.

the Stress on the immune system causes blood pressures issues which exacerbates things for people with taxed cardio systems already. A lot of the people dying in the US are doing so because of multiple heart attacks. Also there is a theory that people who are medication for hypertension are more prone to the virus becuase of something to do with ace inhibitors.

These hypertension and obese stats skew older as well.

My advice, slow down the hardcore working out, slam some vitman c, get enough sleep, and relax

however this is just mortality rate there is always the possibility you end up in ICU with a tube for a couple months, not fun. This is also why flattening the curve is so god damned important.

Someone @RORY so he can dispel my fear mongering

[Greyblades]

There is a Hail Mary upside to all of this in the USA. Bear with me.

The most Trumpian of Trump supporters are the older with generally crappier jobs.
They also love Fox News and tend to believe it.
They won't be able to get treatment even if they acknowledged they were ill.

So with a lot of luck, perhaps we'll see a vast number of Trump voters dying over the next month or so - in their seat in front of the TV with their favourite gun in their arms.

I don't know it would be enough to truly alter the outcome of an election - but quote Bill Hicks - "Fucking celebrate. There's one less moron in the world."

~:smoking:
How remainer of you.

[ReluctantSamurai]

So with a lot of luck, perhaps we'll see a vast number of Trump voters dying over the next month or so

Not sure things have to get that draconian to see Trump retired to some dacha in the USSR:shrug: I think the dagger in his heart comes from his crony Pence, when he makes a total cluster@#$% of our effort to contain this (read my earlier link to how badly he botched an HIV outbreak back in 2015 when he was governor of Indiana).

Strike....got some links for all those numbers? Not that I don't agree with them, but I'm too lazy to search for them myself:laugh4:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

There will probably be a few more deaths once all this is over. With the bill sent to the victims' families.

Do they still charge them for the pistol bullet used to execute their family member as they did back in the 20th?

[Kurando]

but quote Bill Hicks - "Fucking celebrate. There's one less moron in the world."

I've watched ALIENS at least 20 times; Hicks never said that... Fake news!!

[edyzmedieval]

It's a global pandemic now, announced by the WHO.

[Kurando]

It's a global pandemic now, announced by the WHO.

I know about 50 people well enough to call them "family or close friends" so once I personally know three of them who have actually died from COVID-19 then I will wholeheartedly join the WHO in declaring a global pandemic. Until then as far as I am concerned this topic is just fear porn.

[Pannonian]

Do they still charge them for the pistol bullet used to execute their family member as they did back in the 20th?

I'm assuming that they do. Beijing doesn't tend to like it when the regional governments bugger up and cover up.

[Montmorency]

Strike, bad news....

Coronavirus mortality (found somewhere)

https://i.imgur.com/V2ZjIGJ.png


About Italy (https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1237731864233807872), medical guidance for the emergency there:


The Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care just published the most extraordinary medical document I’ve ever seen.

To help people from Germany to America understand what we’re about to face, I am publishing translated extracts here.

Background: A week ago, Italy had so few cases of corona that it could give each stricken patient high-quality care. Today, some hospitals are so overwhelmed that they simply cannot treat every patient. They are starting to do wartime triage.

Here’s the guidance for that.


"It may be necessary to establish criteria of access to intensive care not just on the basis of clinical appropriateness but inspired by the most consensual criteria regarding distributive justice and the appropriate allocation of limited health resources."
"This scenario is substantially comparable to the field of 'catastrophe medicine,' for which ethical reflection has over time stipulated many concrete guidelines for doctors and nurses facing difficult choices."

"In a context of grave shortage of medical resources, the allocation criteria need to guarantee that those patients with the highest chance of therapeutic success will retain access to intensive care. It's a matter of giving priority to 'the highest hope of life and survival.'"

Recommendations:

1) The extraordinary criteria of admission and discharge are flexible and can be adapted in accordance with the local availability of resources. These criteria apply to all patients in intensive care, not just those infected with CoVid-19.

2) "Allocation is a very complex and delicate choice. […] The foreseeable increase in mortality for clinical conditions not linked to the current epidemic due to the reduction of chirurgical activity and the scarcity of resources needs to be taken into consideration."

3) "It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care. This is not a value judgments but a way to provide extremely scarce resources to those who have the highest likelihood of survival and could enjoy the largest number of life-years saved."
"This is informed by the principle of maximizing benefits for the largest number.
In case of a total saturation of resources, maintaining the criterion of 'first come, first served' would amount to a decision to exclude late-arriving patients from access to intensive care."

4) "In addition to age, the presence of comorbidities needs to be carefully evaluated. It is conceivable that what might be a relatively short treatment course in healthier people could be longer and more resource-consuming in the case of older or more fragile patients."
"For patients for whom access to intensive care is judged inappropriate, the decision to posit a ceiling of care nevertheless needs to be explained, communicated, and documented."

I spent many years sitting in seminar rooms thinking about questions of distributive justice. Let me be honest: It’s left me not one bit wiser about what to do in these kinds of dramatic circumstances. So I don’t don’t mean to pass judgment on the contents of this document. BUT here’s the point I do want everyone to take away from this:

Doctors in America will likely be faced with similarly heartbreaking dilemmas very soon.

But we can avoid that if we:.

* Start engaging in extreme forms of social distancing
* Radically expand ICU capacities

The moral choices involved in figuring out who gets care when hospitals do not have the resources to treat all critical patients are heart-breaking. But the moral choices involved in doing what we can today to avert that situation are straightforward.

Cancel everything now.


This is the type of shit Rory dreams of, right?

Another expert thread (https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html) on potential overwhelming of healthcare capacity.

The federal response (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html) has been downright criminal.



On the other side of the country in Seattle, Dr. Chu and her flu study colleagues, unwilling to wait any longer, decided to begin running samples.

A technician in the laboratory of Dr. Lea Starita who was testing samples soon got a hit.

“I’m like, ‘Oh my God,’” Dr. Starita said. “I just took off running” to the office of the study’s program managers. “We got one,” she told them. “What do we do?”

Members of the research group discussed the ethics of what to do next.

“What we were allowed to do was to keep it to ourselves,” Dr. Chu said. “But what we felt like we needed to do was to tell public health.”

They decided the right thing to do was to inform local health officials.

The case was a teenager, in the same county where the first coronavirus case had surfaced, who had a flu swab just a few days before but had no travel history and no link to any known case.

The state laboratory, finally able to begin testing, confirmed the result the next morning. The teenager, who had recovered from his illness, was located and informed just after he entered his school building. He was sent home and the school was later closed as a precaution.

Later that day, the investigators and Seattle health officials gathered with representatives of the C.D.C. and the F.D.A. to discuss what happened. The message from the federal government was blunt. “What they said on that phone call very clearly was cease and desist to Helen Chu,” Dr. Lindquist remembered. “Stop testing.”

My remaining grandparent is bedridden and relies on home care, so buckle up, this is gonna get sexy. :freak:

[ReluctantSamurai]

Until then as far as I am concerned this topic is just fear porn

:Zzzz: .....or just got back from the Delta Quadrant.....

Italy---first case found at the end of Jan/beginning of Feb; in less than 6 weeks the number of confirmed cases 10,149 (and rising) 631 deaths (and rising) 6.2% fatality rate

Iran---first cases sometime at the beginning of Feb; in less than 6 weeks the number of confirmed cases (and one can assume this is a gross under reporting) 9000 (and rising) 354 deaths (and rising) 3.9% fatality rate

China---first case sometime near the end of Dec; in just under 12 weeks the number of confirmed cases 80,969 (still rising, but much more slowly) 3,162 deaths a 3.9% fatality rate

USA---as yet to be seen how bad it will get

But hell...it's all just fear porn:rolleyes:

[Kurando]

USA---as yet to be seen how bad it will get

But hell...it's all just fear porn:rolleyes:

Considering how constantly and thoroughly we are lied to & manipulated by the mainstream media I have no interest in any of this. If it actually manifests significantly in my life (or even in yours) I will take notice; until then I am hesitant to give this malarkey any credibility as per SARS H1N1 Y2K, etc etc etc... Besides, if it's a real threat there is zero chance that any government or health organization is equipped to do anything about it on a national level, let alone on a global level. Mark my words: it's BS + wake me when it's over...

[Montmorency]

Considering how constantly and thoroughly we are lied to & manipulated by the mainstream media I have no interest in any of this. If it actually manifests significantly in my life (or even in yours) I will take notice; until then I am hesitant to give this malarkey any credibility as per SARS H1N1 Y2K, etc etc etc... Besides, if it's a real threat there is zero chance that any government or health organization is equipped to do anything about it on a national level, let alone on a global level. Mark my words: it's BS + wake me when it's over...

Ill-considered post. What's worse is that you name a number of problems that were solved with the sustained worldwide commitment of thousands of experts and billions of dollars.


Speaking of which, what (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/) Obama made and Trump destroyed:


When Ebola broke out in West Africa in 2014, President Barack Obama recognized that responding to the outbreak overseas, while also protecting Americans at home, involved multiple U.S. government departments and agencies, none of which were speaking to one another. Basically, the U.S. pandemic infrastructure was an enormous orchestra full of talented, egotistical players, each jockeying for solos and fame, refusing to rehearse, and demanding higher salaries—all without a conductor. To bring order and harmony to the chaos, rein in the agency egos, and create a coherent multiagency response overseas and on the homefront, Obama anointed a former vice presidential staffer, Ronald Klain, as a sort of “epidemic czar” inside the White House, clearly stipulated the roles and budgets of various agencies, and placed incident commanders in charge in each Ebola-hit country and inside the United States. The orchestra may have still had its off-key instruments, but it played the same tune.

Building on the Ebola experience, the Obama administration set up a permanent epidemic monitoring and command group inside the White House National Security Council (NSC) and another in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)—both of which followed the scientific and public health leads of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the diplomatic advice of the State Department.

On the domestic front, the real business of assuring public health and safety is a local matter, executed by state, county, and city departments that operate under a mosaic of laws and regulations that vary jurisdiction by jurisdiction. Some massive cities, such as New York City or Boston, have large budgets, clear regulations, and epidemic experiences that have left deep benches of medical and public health talent. But much of the United States is less fortunate on the local level, struggling with underfunded agencies, understaffing, and no genuine epidemic experience. Large and small, America’s localities rely in times of public health crisis on the federal government.

Bureaucracy matters. Without it, there’s nothing to coherently manage an alphabet soup of agencies housed in departments ranging from Defense to Commerce, Homeland Security to Health and Human Services (HHS).

But that’s all gone now.

In the spring of 2018, the White House pushed Congress to cut funding for Obama-era disease security programs, proposing to eliminate $252 million in previously committed resources for rebuilding health systems in Ebola-ravaged Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Under fire from both sides of the aisle, President Donald Trump dropped the proposal to eliminate Ebola funds a month later. But other White House efforts included reducing $15 billion in national health spending and cutting the global disease-fighting operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS. And the government’s $30 million Complex Crises Fund was eliminated.

In May 2018, Trump ordered the NSC’s entire global health security unit shut down, calling for reassignment of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer and dissolution of his team inside the agency. The month before, then-White House National Security Advisor John Bolton pressured Ziemer’s DHS counterpart, Tom Bossert, to resign along with his team. Neither the NSC nor DHS epidemic teams have been replaced. The global health section of the CDC was so drastically cut in 2018 that much of its staff was laid off and the number of countries it was working in was reduced from 49 to merely 10. Meanwhile, throughout 2018, the U.S. Agency for International Development and its director, Mark Green, came repeatedly under fire from both the White House and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. And though Congress has so far managed to block Trump administration plans to cut the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps by 40 percent, the disease-fighting cadres have steadily eroded as retiring officers go unreplaced.

Public health advocates have been ringing alarm bells to no avail.Public health advocates have been ringing alarm bells to no avail. Klain has been warning for two years that the United States was in grave danger should a pandemic emerge. In 2017 and 2018, the philanthropist billionaire Bill Gates met repeatedly with Bolton and his predecessor, H.R. McMaster, warning that ongoing cuts to the global health disease infrastructure would render the United States vulnerable to, as he put it, the “significant probability of a large and lethal modern-day pandemic occurring in our lifetimes.” And an independent, bipartisan panel formed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies concluded that lack of preparedness was so acute in the Trump administration that the “United States must either pay now and gain protection and security or wait for the next epidemic and pay a much greater price in human and economic costs.”

[Montmorency]

One of these is very unlike the others.

https://i.imgur.com/U6OYfqd.jpg

Thoughts and prayers solicited.

Edit: Image cropped errantly, replaced

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

https://screenrant.com/tom-hanks-coronavirus-tested-positive/

Tom Hanks has it.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Considering how constantly and thoroughly we are lied to & manipulated by the mainstream media I have no interest in any of this

Logical if you're using this guy as a source:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/11/politics/fact-check-trump-administration-coronavirus-28-dishonest/index.html


I have no interest in any of this. If it actually manifests significantly in my life (or even in yours) I will take notice; until then I am hesitant to give this malarkey any credibility

Wow:lost:

[Gilrandir]

I strongly object to the insipid thread title. I suggest "weareallgonnadie" instead.

[Strike For The South]

My math was quick napkin math.

Monty, A 100% infection and 6.1 million deaths would be a 3% fatality rate. I hope and pray the rate is that low. I also think 100% infection is impossible 70% is probably the best number.

22 million would be an abject fucking disaster

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

My math was quick napkin math.

Monty, A 100% infection and 6.1 million deaths would be a 3% fatality rate. I hope and pray the rate is that low. I also think 100% infection is impossible 70% is probably the best number.

22 million would be an abject fucking disaster

Currently we're still very much in the growth phase of this epidemic, it's likely that lots of cases are going undetected. In the UK we have tested over 29,764 people and found 590 cases, of which 10 have died. The relatively low detection rate and the fact that the disease is still spreading indicates that we are missing cases, and possibly that it is not quite as infectious as we feared.

Once 70% of the population has actually had the bug we will have a much better understanding of the mortality rate. As things stand mortality is probably over-estimated. That being said, a lot of grandparents are going to die, and there's probably going to be another wave if we get it under control and possibly every year until we have an effective vaccine - if we have one.

Long-term, this may be the end of the West's miraculous and ever-lengthening lifespan. This will have big societal and economic impacts if it is the case - maybe we'll start valuing our elders again.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

This appears to be a single phase virus, not a double whammy like the Spanish Flu. We are most certainly at the front end of the spread phase everywhere outside of Iran and South Central China. I think the deaths will be higher at this phase as the unknown and undiscovered spread will catch those most likely to be harmed with the least warning. Anywhere that is not already overwhelmed in terms of critical care service (like Northern Italy or Wuhan) should obviously be gearing up for a wave of patients in a comparatively short time frame.

[ReluctantSamurai]

This will have big societal and economic impacts if it is the case - maybe we'll start valuing our elders again

I'm of Italian descent, and my grandparents/aunts/uncles were always a big part of my life, and I'm thankful for that to this day.


This appears to be a single phase virus, not a double whammy like the Spanish Flu

Some links to this would be appreciated:2thumbsup:

....and IIRC, the H1N1 of 1918 was a triple whammy.

[Viking]

I strongly object to the insipid thread title. I suggest "weareallgonnadie" instead.

Sure, if we concomitantly rename the Ukraine thread (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php/148457-Ukraine-Thread) to "Putin will kill all Ukrainians".


The relatively low detection rate and the fact that the disease is still spreading indicates that we are missing cases, and possibly that it is not quite as infectious as we feared.

The UK, like almost any country in Europe except Italy, is early in its outbreak; and given that a lot of infected people are quarantined in some form, the virus is at a disadvantage compared to the flu.


As things stand mortality is probably over-estimated.

Which figure? As I posted earlier, there are good reasons to believe that the virus can kill 1-2% of those infected. Of course, this number is tightly connected to the treatment the patients receive; how good, and how early.

According to the source (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html) I am currently looking at, South Korea now has a case fatality rate of 0.84%. This a country that has taken testing to an extreme level (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51836898):


Nearly 20,000 people are being tested every day for coronavirus in South Korea, more people per capita than anywhere else in the world.

Rachel's sample is quickly shipped off to a nearby laboratory where staff are working 24 hours a day to process the results.


There is no shortage of testing kits in South Korea. Four companies have been given approval to make them. It means the country has the capacity to test 140,000 samples a week.

This means that

1) Potentially vulnerable patients can be discovered early and given treatment early, driving the fatality rate down
2) Fewer hospitals are overwhelmed as more people can be quarantined, also driving the fatality rate down
3) The fatality rate is more accurate

If 5 percent of all infected cases are potentially critical, then the fatality rate will creep towards 5 percent locally if hospitals get overwhelmed. On the other hand, if treatment is effective, the fatality rate will creep towards a figure somewhere below 1 percent.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Never mind about the links...found a few myself, including this one:

https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/

Not overly technical, and definitely able to get the general gist of what these lab geeks are talking about.

And then near the end of the discussion, there's this:


The Seattle Flu Study had screened viruses from all over the greater Seattle area, however, we got the positive hit in Snohomish County with cases less than 15 miles apart. This by itself would only be suggestive, but combined with the genetic data, is firm evidence for continued transmission. I've been referring to this scenario as "cryptic transmission". This is a technical term meaning "undetected transmission".


We believe this may have occurred by the WA1 case having exposed someone else to the virus in the period between Jan 15 and Jan 19 before they were isolated. If this second case was mild or asymptomatic, contact tracing efforts by public health would have had difficulty detecting it. After this point, community spread occurred and was undetected due to the CDC narrow case definition that required direct travel to China or direct contact with a known case to even be considered for testing. This lack of testing was a critical error and allowed an outbreak in Snohomish County and surroundings to grow to a sizable problem before it was even detected. Knowing that transmission was initiated on Jan 15 allows us to estimate the total number of infections that exist in this cluster today. Our preliminary analysis puts this at 570 with an 90% uncertainty interval of between 80 and 1500 infections.


We know that Wuhan went from an index case in ~Nov-Dec 2019 to several thousand cases by mid-Jan 2020, thus going from initial seeding event to widespread local transmission in the span of ~9-10 weeks. We now believe that the Seattle area seeding event was ~Jan 15 and we're now ~7 weeks later. I expect Seattle now to look like Wuhan around ~1 Jan, when they were reporting the first clusters of patients with unexplained viral pneumonia. We are currently estimating ~600 infections in Seattle, this matches my phylodynamic estimate of the number of infections in Wuhan on Jan 1. Three weeks later, Wuhan had thousands of infections and was put on large-scale lock-down. However, these large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions to create social distancing had a huge impact on the resulting epidemic. China averted many millions of infections through these intervention measures and cases there have declined substantially.

What will be interesting to see, in the coming weeks, is if the "don't tread on me" mentality here in the US is up to the task of doing without sports, schools, and other such large gatherings; and if/when situations arise for "lock-downs", how confrontational things will get:shrug: The Aussie's, for instance, have instituted some pretty steep fines for breaking quarantine....

Another interesting read quoting folks from the same medical research center as above:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/mapping-the-spread-of-a-deadly-disease


“The nature of viruses is to mutate,” said Bedford, explaining that as these microorganisms rapidly reproduce, genetic errors can occur. But these aren’t the scary mutations that wipe out billions of people like in Hollywood films. “The vast majority of these mutations are absolutely meaningless,” said Emma Hodcroft, an epidemiologist who collaborates with NextStrain and is based at the University of Basel in Switzerland, “but they are useful to help us see how the virus travels and changes.”


Nextstrain also indicates that the coronavirus, once it took hold in Wuhan and other locales, spread quickly as it proliferated around the world and infected more people. “So far there’s no evidence to assume that you’ll see a different pattern from Wuhan,” said Neher about locales outside of China, helping countries, politicians, and medical professionals make more concerted efforts in far-flung areas of the world. “This is going to grow exponentially wherever it appears,” Neher added, “and it will hit you hard. Italy got hit hard. Korea got hit hard.”


Richard Neher [an evolutionary biologist] also cautions that the number of samples that have been genetically sequenced and included on the Nextstrain site remains small—it currently stands at 326 samples. “This means we are missing information,” he said. “The data is also not collected evenly everywhere since some countries have more of an ability to sequence, and some aren’t focusing on sequencing while they are trying to treat the infected.” This means that Nextstrain does not offer up a complete picture of how the virus is evolving, although it can offer up clues.


So where is the virus headed? “We are seeing exponential growth,” said Bedford, talking about the spread of cases where people have been infected, “with a doubling every seven days. So we’re going from 500 to a thousand to 2,000, et cetera, but the thing that makes it hard to predict, and why I’m only comfortable with forecasting a week or two out, is that I'm expecting large social changes to just be happening,” meaning that efforts to quarantine, work from home, and limit travel can lessen the pace of exposure.


“We know that what China did had a huge impact,” he added, referring to the extreme measures to essentially quarantine millions of people. “How strong of an impact comes out of what we will do [in North America] in terms of mitigation efforts is hard to predict. If people”—meaning the government and medical community as well as individuals—“did nothing, the natural progression is that half of people will get infected over the course of the coming months, just like you have a flu season every winter.”


“Right now the U.S. has the highest case-to-fatality ratio in the world,” said Emma Hodcroft. “That is not because it’s somehow worse in the U.S., it’s just because we have done a bad job at testing enough cases up until this point.” As of Monday, the U.S. had tested only a few thousand people. This compares to 189,000 people tested in South Korea.

Sobering:uhoh2:

[Kurando]

What will be interesting to see, in the coming weeks, is if the "don't tread on me" mentality here in the US is up to the task of doing without sports, schools, and other such large gatherings; and if/when situations arise for "lock-downs", how confrontational things will get:shrug:

It's like a sputtering engine, but credit for thinking in those terms. If you're able to start considering this as an exercise in control rather than an exercise in epidemiology you're on the right track at least. It's as plain as the nose on your face: yet another sweeping threat to our civil liberties disguised as a threat to our lives.

People should cut the fear out of their minds and cut out the baby talk that goes along with it. On a bad year 1.5 million people die worldwide in motor vehicle accidents; you've got a far far far greater chance of being killed in your car while traveling to get tested for COVID-19 than you do of dying from the virus.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Sure, if we concomitantly rename the Ukraine thread (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php/148457-Ukraine-Thread) to "Putin will kill all Ukrainians".

Not a fan of gallows humour, then?


Which figure? As I posted earlier, there are good reasons to believe that the virus can kill 1-2% of those infected. Of course, this number is tightly connected to the treatment the patients receive; how good, and how early.

According to the source (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html) I am currently looking at, South Korea now has a case fatality rate of 0.84%. This a country that has taken testing to an extreme level (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51836898):

I was referring to the apparent mortality rates vs the number of detected cases being around 3-4%. Now that the Northern Hemisphere is starting to warm flu season should come to an end and cases should become more apparent.


The UK has just advised anyone with a "new" persistent cough to self-isolate for 7 days, but everybody in the country right now has a cough or runny nose. Idaho will confirm that Exeter is pretty miserable right now and you can get a cough and runny nose just from the cold wind.


It's like a sputtering engine, but credit for thinking in those terms. If you're able to start considering this as an exercise in control rather than an exercise in epidemiology you're on the right track at least. It's as plain as the nose on your face: yet another sweeping threat to our civil liberties disguised as a threat to our lives.

People should cut the fear out of their minds and cut out the baby talk that goes along with it. On a bad year 1.5 million people die worldwide in motor vehicle accidents; you've got a far far far greater chance of being killed in your car while traveling to get tested for COVID-19 than you do of dying from the virus.

With a mortality rate of 1-2% if properly treated (big if) the disease will probably kill someone you know this year. When was the last time someone you know died of the flu?

[ReluctantSamurai]

You know, if the 50 or so people you claim in your circle of family and friends don't contract this virus, I'm happy for you. But your "yet another sweeping threat to our civil liberties" dog just doesn't hunt. The same way that people who drive impaired (which constitutes close to 50% of fatalities worldwide) face the consequences, including jail time, so should people who disregard the social implications of treating a highly infectious disease as "fear porn", as you call it. I don't need to hear the worn excuse that thousands die from the flu every year. We have vaccines, and humans have built up resistances to many flu's over the years.

COVID-19 is not a flu. It has flu-like symptoms, but it behaves much differently than a flu virus. Two key points being: a) it's a new virus, so we have no natural antibodies to fight it (and vaccines won't be available for quite some time); b) it has a long incubation period as compared to flu viruses, so you can get the doubling effect as described by the Bedford Lab in Seattle, and suddenly you go from 1 case to hundreds and thousands before you even know which way is up (see Italy, South Korea, Iran, etc).

That's why measures have to be swift, and draconian if necessary. I don't give a damn about your civil liberties if it means thousands of lives can be saved. Just like I don't give a damn about your civil liberties if you get behind the wheel of a vehicle while impaired, and kill someone.

[Pannonian]

It's like a sputtering engine, but credit for thinking in those terms. If you're able to start considering this as an exercise in control rather than an exercise in epidemiology you're on the right track at least. It's as plain as the nose on your face: yet another sweeping threat to our civil liberties disguised as a threat to our lives.

People should cut the fear out of their minds and cut out the baby talk that goes along with it. On a bad year 1.5 million people die worldwide in motor vehicle accidents; you've got a far far far greater chance of being killed in your car while traveling to get tested for COVID-19 than you do of dying from the virus.

Does your travelling around contribute to the danger of someone getting killed in an accident? Do you disregard precautions designed to minimise the risk of such accidents? Does your having passed a spot in a car lead to the increased risk of accidents for anyone following some minutes later?

[Montmorency]

People should cut the fear out of their minds and cut out the baby talk that goes along with it. On a bad year 1.5 million people die worldwide in motor vehicle accidents; you've got a far far far greater chance of being killed in your car while traveling to get tested for COVID-19 than you do of dying from the virus.

The statement of probability is emphatically unsubstantiated, to say nothing of the fact that we have, over generations, taken numerous evidence-based regulatory and practical precautions to limit the hazards posed by mass automobile usage.


Speaking of testing, this is another excellent visualization:

https://i.imgur.com/KSBgamD.jpg

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

For those interested, her's the NHS advice: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-people-with-confirmed-or-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection

Fever or "persistent" cough and you stay home from now on, for a week.

[Viking]

Not a fan of gallows humour, then?

I read that post rather differently, though I think my reply works one way or another..

[Kurando]

With a mortality rate of 1-2% if properly treated (big if) the disease will probably kill someone you know this year.

I sincerely doubt it, but even if that is the case: the death of one person I care about is not nearly as concerning as the 99.9% of the rest of people I care about being oblivious to having their entire way of life decimated by what is essentially an opportunistic experiment in social control.

[Kurando]

That's why measures have to be swift, and draconian if necessary. I don't give a damn about your civil liberties if it means thousands of lives can be saved.

...You believe that your civil liberties are being compromised to save peoples lives from a virus?? Didn't they blatantly scam you in the wake of 9/11 into believing that your civil liberties were being compromised to save peoples lives from terrorists? -Hindsight much??

It's all just another convenient lever to pry with.

[rory_20_uk]

I thought that the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Officer set out their reasons in a pretty sensible way - how for example shutting schools is highly likely to be merely damaging with children likely to quickly be seeing each other and in many cases sent to be looked after by the grandparents who should be quarantined; how unless almost all air traffic is stopped then again this has a very limited affect and causes vast disruption. Boris also let the experts do their job on a highly technical matter.

I'm not an expert on this whatsoever, but their reasons for not having taken actions made sense.

The Journalists then excelled demonstrating that they've studied no science since they were about 15 and have far more interest in penny dreadful headlines than booooring epidemiological modelling.

Of course, there are in the whole of the UK a few thousand ICU beds and possibly at best tens of thousands of ventilators so even ignoring staffing issues and illness we could be way short of worst-case predictions for the system to be constrained.

So... I guess I'll be working from home for several months to come then.

~:smoking:

[Montmorency]

This is the day Joe Biden became president.

Katie Porter. (https://twitter.com/briantylercohen/status/1238155454108151808)

Legendary joke (https://twitter.com/DiageoLiam/status/1238021117941596161): "The World Health Organization has announced that dogs cannot contract Covid-19. Dogs previously held in quarantine can now be released. To be clear, WHO let the dogs out."


I sincerely doubt it, but even if that is the case: the death of one person I care about is not nearly as concerning as the 99.9% of the rest of people I care about being oblivious to having their entire way of life decimated by what is essentially an opportunistic experiment in social control.

What civil liberties are you concerned about, specifically?

If you're worried about emergency powers, the government has already arrogated those powers generations ago; a Chinese-style response would probably be legal. If you're worried about a disruption to your way of life, then sorry to break it to you but the virus will disrupt your way of life regardless of state action.

[rory_20_uk]

...You believe that your civil liberties are being compromised to save peoples lives from a virus?? Didn't they blatantly scam you in the wake of 9/11 into believing that your civil liberties were being compromised to save peoples lives from terrorists? -Hindsight much??

It's all just another convenient lever to pry with.

I don't think that the USA needs any reason to pry further into its citizens:

Border Patrol can stop and detain for any reason up to 100 miles in from a border. That's almost 2/3 of the entire population right there.
Anything digital can be taken either with or without the rubber-stamp court warrant.
Most police cars have automatic number plate recognition - which can be cross referenced with your cell phone to track.
Riots are responded to with police armed with the sort of equipment that would fight a decent war - except the police have far less training than the military.

If there was a time the government was scared of the People, that is at least 100 years ago.

~:smoking:

[Kurando]

I don't think that the USA needs any reason to pry further into its citizens...

In a sense I agree. As all of these circumstances that you mentioned are firmly in place as a result of the Patriot Act et al the government now more than anything needs to know what it's citizens will do about it if those restrictions are put into action. What if they take away freedom of association & Disneyland & team sports & Hollywood and all remnants of the things that made us who we once were? What will we do about it? -Sadly the answer is that we will do nothing, and worse still, that yet again, the vast majority can be bamboozled into thinking that it's all for our own good at the drop of a hat. We are indeed screwed, but I dare say it's not because of COVID-19, that part is just a convenience.

[Montmorency]

What if they take away freedom of association & Disneyland & team sports & Hollywood and all remnants of the things that made us who we once were?

This all sounds cranky.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Kurando

You know, for someone who requested a wake-up call after all this boring shit is over, you seem awfully intent on making an imprint on this discussion.....just sayin':shrug:


the death of one person I care about is not nearly as concerning as the 99.9% of the rest of people I care about being oblivious to having their entire way of life decimated by what is essentially an opportunistic experiment in social control.

Jesus, I'd hate to be one of those 50 or so in your circle of friends/family:boxedin:

Look around. You think that this whole situation is a fabrication simply to gain social control?? When the last infected aerosol droplet has settled, there's going to be hell to pay. Heads of state and leaders of medical emergency responders are going to lose their jobs.


It's all just another convenient lever to pry with

You'll get no argument from me about government intelligence agencies taking advantage of 9/11 to expand their powers, and increase their influence on our lives. But you are comparing apples with oranges. The focus after 9/11 became us vs them; a wartime fabrication that pits Western nations against Islamic nations. A virus doesn't care about religion, doesn't care about politics, doesn't give a damn about anyone's civil liberties. They just do what they do...replicate themselves in as many willing hosts as they can.


What if they take away freedom of association & Disneyland & team sports & Hollywood and all remnants of the things that made us who we once were? What will we do about it? -Sadly the answer is that we will do nothing, and worse still, that yet again, the vast majority can be bamboozled into thinking that it's all for our own good at the drop of a hat

You obviously haven't been paying attention to how this virus works. It absolutely loves (yes, I know, viruses don't have feelings) large, very crowded areas like sports arenas, subway trains, airplanes, cruise ships, etc., etc., etc., because it can infect someone who may not show symptoms for as long as 14 days, if at all. And if you even bothered to read the piece from Bedford labs, you might understand that 1 infection becomes two and then four and so on, until you have thousands before you even know it.

If there had been an outright, and total travel ban placed on countries where the virus was located, then Patient 0 would never have made it to Seattle, and then gone to California, etc., etc., etc. Too bad if you feel like your liberties were interfered with, a whole lot of people in Washington State and elsewhere might still be alive right now. And the instant the virus got here, or wherever you are from, all sporting events are cancelled; Disney World---closed; all schools from K-1 to college---either closed or moved online. If an area starts showing large clusters of infections, quarantine or even total lock-down. Sound familiar? Yep, that's how the Chinese got it under control (at least for the time being), and the scenario is now being repeated in Italy. Look what happened in S. Korea. The government decides not to impinge on the right to have large religious gatherings; one infected person in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus congregates with a thousand or so members of their sect on 18 Feb, and by 23 Feb there were hundreds of new cases and something on the order of 100 new ones every day. By 11 March there were 7,700 confirmed cases of the virus with around three quarters of that total occurring in Daegu and about 63 percent directly linked to the Shinchonji religious group. Do the math. If religious gatherings had had a temporary ban, there would have been over 3,600 less cases. Same story in Iran. No ban on religious gatherings, no postponement of elections (because the powers that be wanted a large voter turnout to legitimize their brand). And look what happened. As of 15 Feb, there were no reported cases (although the virus was likely already there). In less than one month (as of 10 March), there are 8,042 reported infections (very likely grossly under-reported), and 291 deaths. New cases are coming in a a rate of almost 900 per day. Talk to all the families who lost loved ones about civil liberties. You just might find them willing to trade a few weeks of quarantine to have them in the land of the living still.

So....to hell with civil liberties in a situation like world is experiencing right now. Want to increase your chances of not getting sick or dying? Stay home and, you know, actually have a conversation, face-to-face with friends and loved ones instead doing face-time.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

"More than 125,000 people have been diagnosed with Covid-19 in 118 countries around the world, according to the World Health Organization. The total number of deaths is more than 4,600."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51862347

This is just not OK, this is not "fear porn".

[a completely inoffensive name]

What if they take away freedom of association & Disneyland & team sports & Hollywood and all remnants of the things that made us who we once were? What will we do about it?

LOL, bro my city sets cars on fire and riots every time the Lakers win. YOu think people are gonna wake up one day and accept no more sports?

Bruh, where is your prepper bunker and 50 gallon drum of mac and cheese? I can repair your water filtration system, so you need me when society collapses.

[Montmorency]

Samurai, sorry to say but North Korea is almost certainly affected. They have a lot of labor commuting to and from China. One take (https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/meghara/north-korea-coronavirus).

Good article (https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/lets-talk-about-the-schools) about the dilemma of social costs in school closures, particularly for a big city like NYC. It's a no-win scenario. I do hope the mayor and governor have a plan to provision services to all the displaced kids when it does finally happen. You're going to see problems if half the kids are infecting their grandparents and half the rest are tying down parents from the workforce. How to keep healthcare workers on the job when their kids have nowhere to go is another issue.

[Kurando]

This all sounds cranky.

Then I will put it bluntly: ability for a government to predict with certainty how it's population will react under a situation of martial law is beyond invaluable. That goes for a government here, there, or anywhere. For the record I'm not saying the virus is a hoax, just that it's overblown and moreover that it's an opportunity for governments which is right in front of our eyes is being ruthlessly exploited just like 9/11 was.

Funny but, I keep thinking back to the psychologist who more than a century ago invented the concept of Kindergarden. His though process was that if you surround a child with pretty toys and frivolity for the first 6 years of it's life that the child will be powerless to question authority later in life. We are proving him right and acting like a society of impotent sheep whenever authority tests those waters.

I don't want you to think I am not concerned for my circle of 50 close friends or for any of you guys, on the contrary, I am deeply concerned, just not about the potential impact of the virus itself. As I said in the first post "if" I lose friends and neighbours I will take the virus part seriously, until then this whole situation stinks to high heaven of something else. Something concrete which has had ongoing impact on all of our lives, not a sudden impact on them.

[Montmorency]

Then I will put it bluntly: ability for a government to predict with certainty how it's population will react under a situation of martial law is beyond invaluable. That goes for a government here, there, or anywhere. For the record I'm not saying the virus is a hoax, just that it's overblown and moreover that it's an opportunity for governments which is right in front of our eyes is being ruthlessly exploited just like 9/11 was.

What exactly is your theory, then? Describe it, step-by-step. Otherwise you may as well be saying that this pandemic is just an opportunity for mice to eat all our cheese. Lay out your theory and explain the steps.


Funny but, I keep thinking back to the psychologist who more than a century ago invented the concept of Kindergarden. His though process was that if you surround a child with pretty toys and frivolity for the first 6 years of it's life that the child will be powerless to question authority later in life. We are proving him right and acting like a society of impotent sheep whenever authority tests those waters.

That's not what Kindergarten was or is.


I don't want you to think I am not concerned for my circle of 50 close friends or for any of you guys, on the contrary, I am deeply concerned, just not about the potential impact of the virus itself. As I said in the first post "if" I lose friends and neighbours I will take the virus part seriously, until then this whole situation stinks to high heaven of something else. Something concrete which has had ongoing impact on all of our lives, not sudden impact on them.

If you're taking it seriously when your friends or family are dying then it is too late. That's like saying you'll take the threat of war seriously only when there are foreign boots in the capital.

Look at it objectively: if there is a threat, when is the time to begin addressing it? If it helps, start from the point where the virus is a serious threat and could be exploited by a nefarious government somehow. What then?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

LOL, bro my city sets cars on fire and riots every time the Lakers win. YOu think people are gonna wake up one day and accept no more sports?

Bruh, where is your prepper bunker and 50 gallon drum of mac and cheese? I can repair your water filtration system, so you need me when society collapses.

Pah - I'm probably the only one of you who can shoot straight and maintain his IW - you wanna be in my bunker.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Pah - I'm probably the only one of you who can shoot straight and maintain his IW - you wanna be in my bunker.

I'm an American. Of course I've shot before. Nothing further than 500 meters though. And I am terrible at skeet shooting, so don't ask me to hunt birds.

But I do want to be in your bunker. Mainly because California earthquakes turn bunkers into cement coffins over here.

[ReluctantSamurai]

For the record I'm not saying the virus is a hoax, just that it's overblown and moreover that it's an opportunity for governments which is right in front of our eyes is being ruthlessly exploited just like 9/11 was

Ok, I'll bite. exactly who is doing the exploiting and exactly who are these nebulous opportunities going to benefit? So far, all your accusations have been rather vague as to specifics....so ditto what Monty said:yes:

[Kurando]

What exactly is your theory, then? Describe it, step-by-step?

I already have at length, perhaps it would be better if I simplified it:

Fact: Civil liberties were decimated as legal concepts during and immediately following the 9/11 hysteria.
Theory: Civil liberties are being decimated in actuality during and immediately following the COVID-19 hysteria.

[Montmorency]

I already have at length, perhaps it would be better if I simplified it:

Fact: Civil liberties were decimated as legal concepts during and immediately following the 9/11 hysteria.
Theory: Civil liberties are being decimated in actuality during and immediately following the COVID-19 hysteria.

How, exactly?

We can name specific consequences of the 9/11 hysteria: Devastating wars, increased surveillance, police abuses, torture, unchecked executive war powers, less social trust...

And these were predicted at the time by astute observers, so you have no excuse in vagueness.

And how would you approach the scenario where your fears about civil liberties dovetail with a virus that is in fact a serious threat?

[Kurando]

Ok, I'll bite. exactly who is doing the exploiting and exactly who are these nebulous opportunities going to benefit? So far, all your accusations have been rather vague as to specifics....so ditto what Monty said:yes:

I have no idea and I'm not in a position to even speculate, but similarly if a stranger walks up and starts punching me in the face; it's still self-evident that it is happening even if I can't identify who they are or what their motive is.

[Kurando]

And these were predicted at the time by astute observers, so you have no excuse in vagueness.

And how would you approach the scenario where your fears about civil liberties dovetail with a virus that is in fact a serious threat?

I don't need and excuse for vagueness any more than you need an excuse for not reading what I already communicated:

(the) ability for a government to predict with certainty how it's population will react under a situation of martial law is beyond invaluable

[ReluctantSamurai]

I have no idea and I'm not in a position to even speculate

That's what I thought:coffeenews:

[Montmorency]

Not to pile on, but this is useful reading.
https://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/

[Hooahguy]

I dont know how things are going where you guys all live, but at least where I am, there seems to have been a massive run on the grocery stores today. Many places essentially cleaned out. Had I known this I probably would have stocked up. At least I managed to nab some disinfectant spray on Amazon, so much is sold out its insane.

On the medical front, the lack of easy testing is very concerning. I get pretty bad allergies that manifests as a scratchy throat, runny nose, and a mild cough. So of course I am very concerned. Seems like the only way to see if I have COVID-19 is taking my temperature and making sure its still in the normal range, which it is for now. Pandemics are fun.

[Kurando]

That's what I thought:coffeenews:

Okay genius, have it your way then: the government, just as it always has, only has your wellbeing in mind, just like when it saved you from Osama and Sadam. It has no agenda other than to protect you and it wants you to feel free to stand up and protest whenever you feel you are wronged. If the government tells you to do something you are free not to obey, (it's not like there aren't new laws against obeying or anything) but hey, the government only has your best interest in mind. Haven't they proven that time and time again? Celebrate, you have more freedom now than at any time in our history. Right? Right?

-The noose is tightening my friends, with a bag over your head so you can't see the gallows and a whistling in your ear so you can't sense the drop.

[Gilrandir]

Sure, if we concomitantly rename the Ukraine thread (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php/148457-Ukraine-Thread) to "Putin will kill all Ukrainians".


The thread mentioned by you falls utterly short of this one here as to the degree of hysterics and panic-mongering. At least in the Ukraine thread no one suggested stockpiling cereals and canned products. So, keep contributing to apocalypsetoday.com.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I dont know how things are going where you guys all live, but at least where I am, there seems to have been a massive run on the grocery stores today. Many places essentially cleaned out. Had I known this I probably would have stocked up. At least I managed to nab some disinfectant spray on Amazon, so much is sold out its insane.

On the medical front, the lack of easy testing is very concerning. I get pretty bad allergies that manifests as a scratchy throat, runny nose, and a mild cough. So of course I am very concerned. Seems like the only way to see if I have COVID-19 is taking my temperature and making sure its still in the normal range, which it is for now. Pandemics are fun.

Stock up on allergy medicine now, like today.

Double check your amazon purchase, scammers are selling goods at normal price with 50-100 dollar shipping costs.

Water will keep running so don't worry too much about bottled water, but basic emergency supply is a gallon per person per day.

Go for frozen vegetables and other canned goods since that is what will become scarce when production drops.
Toilet paper is gone cause people are assholes but you can still use napkins, paper towels etc and dispose of the waste in trash.

Buy a large bag of rice and a large bag of beans, basic spices that can give you protein and carbs and get stretched out.

Please take care

[ReluctantSamurai]

but hey, the government only has your best interest in mind. Haven't they proven that time and time again?

"They" is still vague as hell. I know who "the" government is in my country. What government are you referring to? And in the US it's not simply the politicians on Capital Hill (or in each states capital), but the unwritten pact between those very same politico's, bankers, big energy, pharmaceuticals, etc., etc., etc. So in your world-view, who is profiting from your perceived fear-mongering?


If the government tells you to do something you are free not to obey

I agree....except where my civil disobedience puts others at risk. In this case, it's a significant number of others, and it can lead to deaths. If a government cannot put a stop to that kind of civil disobedience, then we have nothing but anarchy.

It's been a fun go, but I'm not much for lengthy discussions about politics. Sides rarely, if ever, agree, and a lot of bloviating takes place for no good purpose. It's been fun, tho'......


On the medical front, the lack of easy testing is very concerning

If Swampville is here in the States, then heads are going to roll over this at some point down the road. Monty's earlier post about testing per capita is very telling.

[Montmorency]

The thread mentioned by you falls utterly short of this one here as to the degree of hysterics and panic-mongering. At least in the Ukraine thread no one suggested stockpiling cereals and canned products. So, keep contributing to apocalypsetoday.com.

To make a general point, it's recommended to have 1-2 weeks of food stored in case of emergency. Also phrased as supplies for sheltering in place up to 2 weeks, as in this federal document titled Если завтра война (https://www.fema.gov/pdf/areyouready/areyouready_full.pdf)

I'm confident Ukraine's emergency services make similar recommendations. Check.

[Beskar]

I have seen a few Rory-esque memes around. A few are regarding this as "Boomer flu" since it only really has the worst affects on the older population. So there are Memes about Boris Johnson seeing this as an opportunity to fix the NHS and Social Care budgets and the like. Another about how young people will get access to affordable housing again, etc.

Whilst this is Gallows humour, as no one in their right mind would call for an agisticide in good conscience.

[Gilrandir]

To make a general point, it's recommended to have 1-2 weeks of food stored in case of emergency. Also phrased as supplies for sheltering in place up to 2 weeks, as in this federal document titled Если завтра война (https://www.fema.gov/pdf/areyouready/areyouready_full.pdf)

I'm confident Ukraine's emergency services make similar recommendations. Check.

They did it in 2009 when H1N1 (or what was its name) was reported to be ravaging like there's no tomorrow. And it turned out to have been blown out of proportions. The same as with that corona thing, I believe.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Well, the finger-pointing war has officially begun:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-13/coronavirus-originated-in-united-states-china-official-says/12055278

~:rolleyes:

And sometimes I'm ashamed to be a member of the human race:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-01/coronavirus-has-sparked-racist-attacks-on-asian-australians/11918962

:shame:

[Greyblades]

Its a unjust that the entirety of the nationality would be blamed for the consequences of the culnary practices of rural china and the inaction of the small cadre of party members that run china's communist government.

Thank goodness that the racist attacks only consist of very mild comments and rude waiters.

[Montmorency]

Jack Ma the Chinese billionaire is donating us half a million test kits and a million masks. Goddamnit, we are so bad at this.

[From yesterday] We're following Italy's trajectory in confirmed cases so far, despite the differences in population and in testing per capita. This is going to explode to a million cases by the end of April, isn't it? Particularly as mass testing begins in earnest (see post below).

https://i.imgur.com/wMLHB9t.jpg



Read these horrifying two stories of people struggling to get tested despite being.....

Chaser (https://twitter.com/sppeoples/status/1238468948284379141):


I'm presenting mild symptoms (headache, mild fever, mild cough) and want to get tested in north Jersey. Primary care tells me to go to ER. ER tells me to call city health dept. Health dept tells me to go to urgent care. Urgent care tells me to go to ER. Everyone says no tests.

Uppercut (https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/03/a-coronavirus-story):


I learned today that my daughter-in-law, her husband, and their infant child are sick. Her husband works with someone who recently stopped over in South Korea on the way back from India. That coworker developed symptoms and I don’t think has sought medical attention. Now my daughter-in-law’s husband has chills and a cough. Classic coronavirus symptoms. To make matters worse, the daughter-in-law works as a nurse’s aide in our local hospital and has had close contact with hospital patients — changing diapers, taking vitals, etc. Given the South Korea connection, the symptoms, and the close contact with a vulnerable population, they need to be tested. Obviously. Not to mention that my wife cared for her infant son, who is now sick, and my wife and I recently turned 60.

I have called our county health department and several walk-in medical clinics (they don’t have health insurance). I was given the number of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, which I had already called numerous times only to be hung up on after waiting 10 minutes each time. I learned from a nurse at one of the walk-in clinics that wait times are at least 4 hours.

I also learned that the only way to get tested in Kansas is to get approval from the KS Department of Health and Environment. My daughter-in-law called her employer, the local hospital, and they connected her with those who are screening for possible tests. She was told that she doesn’t qualify for a test because she currently does not have a fever. Never mind that her husband does. And is coughing. Never mind that her husband has been in close contact with someone who recently spent time in South Korea, a coronavirus hot-spot. Never mind that my daughter-in-law has had close contact with vulnerable hospital patients.

Btw, I also learned that there is a catch-22. If you lack health insurance and call a medical clinic with symptoms compatible with coronavirus, they will refuse to let you come in. They instead refer you to the KS Department of Health hotline, with its 4 hour + wait and with its absurd criteria that will result in a denial of testing even if there has been contact with a person who has traveled from a coronavirus hotspot, there are classic symptoms of coronavirus, and there is contact with especially vulnerable persons.

I have called the Governor’s Office (we’ll look into it and get back to you), the local hospital’s PR department, and our local newspaper (which probably will do a story on it).

This is obviously an outrage. This is why this shit is spreading like wildfire and it is a recipe for further spread. This story needs to be circulated as widely as possible to embarrass our governmental officials into action. If you have any contacts at major news outlets, I’ll be happy to share my contact information.

Meanwhile, my wife and I are quarantining separately until either my daughter-in-law and her husband are tested and receive a negative test result or 14 days expires.



They did it in 2009 when H1N1 (or what was its name) was reported to be ravaging like there's no tomorrow. And it turned out to have been blown out of proportions. The same as with that corona thing, I believe.

Swine flu. With a quick check, I can report that the 2009 pandemic infected younger people at a higher rate than this one and ultimately its fatality rate was similar to that of seasonal flus.

COVID-19 is many orders of magnitude more lethal. In fact, it has the potential to be deadlier than the storied 1918-19 pandemic.

Bit early to be dismissive. [I love the transliteration in the URL]
https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/koronavirus-ukraine-izvestno-dannyy-moment-1584092251.html


By the way, as I recall you dislike Zelensky, but can you say he's outsourced national emergency response to his idiot children? (For whom he tailored tax law to funnel millions (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/trumps-win-for-black-people-is-scam-to-enrich-his-family.html) into their pockets?)

[Montmorency]

Reminder: Trump's comments (two weeks, one week ago) about dissolving pandemic preparedness infrastructure in the federal government.


https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-conference/

Q Your budgets have consistently called for enormous cuts to the CDC, the NIH, and the WHO. You’ve talked a lot today about how these professionals are excellent, have been critical and necessary. Does this experience at all give you pause about those consistent cuts?

THE PRESIDENT: No, because we — we can get money and we can increase staff. We know all the people. We know all the good people. It’s a question I asked the doctors before. Some of the people we cut, they haven’t been used for many, many years. And if — if we have a need, we can get them very quickly. And rather than spending the money — and I’m a business person — I don’t like having thousands of people around when you don’t need them. When we need them, we can get them back very quickly. For instance, we’re bringing some people in tomorrow that are already in this, you know, great government that we have, and very specifically for this. We can build up very, very quickly. And we’ve already done that. I mean, we really have built up. We have a great staff. And using Mike, I’m doing that because he’s in the administration and he’s very good at doing what he does, and doing as it relates to this.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-tour-centers-disease-control-prevention-atlanta-ga/

Q Mr. President, last night, you said you had not anticipated this kind of thing happening. Would you rethink then having an Office of Pandemic Preparation in the White House that is point on (inaudible)?

THE PRESIDENT: I just think this is something, Peter, that you can never really think is going to happen. You know, who — I’ve heard all about, “This could be…” — you know, “This could be a big deal,” from before it happened. You know, this — something like this could happen. I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down. We’ve really been very vigilant, and we’ve done a tremendous job at keeping to down.
But who would have thought? Look, how long ago is it? Six, seven, eight weeks ago — who would have thought we would even be having the subject? We were going to hit 30,000 on the Dow like it was clockwork. Right? It was all going — it was right up, and then all of a sudden, this came out. And all I say is, “Be calm.” We have the greatest people in the world. Everyone is relying on us. The world is relying on us. They’ve done an incredible job in a very condensed period of time.
And the thing is, you never really know when something like this is going to strike and what it’s going to be. This is different than something else. This is a very different thing than something else.

Well, he's certainly lived up to his promise to run the country like a failed business white-collar smash & grab.

And of course, you always have to keep the top grift in the family. Son-in-law Jared Kushner (https://www.thedailybeast.com/karlie-kloss-dad-asked-facebook-group-what-to-advice-to-give-kushner-about-coronavirus-says-report), hot off solving the Middle East conflicts:


Jared Kushner—who was tasked this week with carrying out research into the coronavirus to help President Donald Trump decide what to do next—has apparently consulted his sister-in-law’s dad, Kurt Kloss, an emergency-room doctor, who then reached out to a Facebook group for advice on what to say. The Spectator reports that Kloss crowd-sourced for ideas from other doctors on a Facebook group, asking: “If you were in charge of Federal response to the Pandemic what would your recommendation be?” Kloss added that he wanted “only serious responses” before writing, “I have direct channel to person now in charge at White House and have been asked for recommendations.” Kushner had earlier said he was talking to “relevant parties” and will “present his findings to the president.” After his initial post, Kloss posted a summary of the recommendations from the Facebook group and then informed them: “Jared is reading now.”
:laugh4::bigcry:


He has, finally, declared a national emergency (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-hold-friday-afternoon-press-conference-coronavirus-n1157981).

Sounds like rapid national mass testing SHOULD be online from next week.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Its a unjust that the entirety of the nationality would be blamed for the consequences of the culnary practices of rural china and the inaction of the small cadre of party members that run china's communist government

While it's still unclear how the virus got transported to Wuhan (essentially Ground Zero), I would hardly call a city of nearly 11 million people, "rural". The Chinese can be faulted for not allowing test samples to be shipped out of the country in the initial outbreak stages, a situation that was later rectified. I would venture a guess that after a second corona virus outbreak originating from China's animal markets in the last 20 years, some type of protocol will be insisted upon, going forward.

That still doesn't absolve some of the world's governments slow response, with my own US of A topping the list of abysmal responses.

[Viking]

I dont know how things are going where you guys all live, but at least where I am, there seems to have been a massive run on the grocery stores today.

I have been working from home for the second day today after my company made working from home the default mode of working. All schools, kindergartens and universities nationwide are closed. As are all gyms, public swimming pools, hair salons and more. Hotels are closing for a lack of customers. Everyone that have travelled outside of the Nordic countries since 27 February is required to self-quarantine, while more and more countries in Europe are closing their borders in Plague Inc. like fashion; making such travels increasingly impossible anyway. The city authorities here put restrictions in place on how many people can use public transport at a time: all who are not seated must have 1 meter distance to the nearest standing person; I can only imagine a lot of people are finding their commute home longer than usual.

The state of normality is currently coming to an end in Europe at such a pace and to such a radical extent that the situation is difficult to take in.

Going to the grocery store today was probably the most normal thing I've done the last couple of days. Shelves were less stocked than usual, but most shoppers should get what they came for.



The thread mentioned by you falls utterly short of this one here as to the degree of hysterics and panic-mongering. At least in the Ukraine thread no one suggested stockpiling cereals and canned products. So, keep contributing to apocalypsetoday.com.

If you were the only Ukrainian participating in that thread, all stockpiling would have to be up to you; so that would have a simple explanation.

If one anticipate potential disruption to the distribution of goods, having some extra food around is smart. It is also smart if there is a significant risk of getting quarantined, which is the reality in many countries currently.

The outbreak of COVID-19 seems unlikely to be able to disrupt the distribution of goods directly, but buying small amounts of highly durable food comes at a minimal cost in the wealthier parts of the world, so the potential benefit doesn't have to be very large to justify it.


They did it in 2009 when H1N1 (or what was its name) was reported to be ravaging like there's no tomorrow. And it turned out to have been blown out of proportions. The same as with that corona thing, I believe.

Potential consequences of this virus have been on display in both South Korea and Italy already, and have been posted in this very thread. The proportions are already known: the virus appears relatively harmless for the majority of people, but there is significant risk for hospitals to get overwhelmed by abnormally high numbers of critically ill patients if big steps are not taken to halt the spread of the disease.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I highly recommend you download and read this if you haven't already (the full report of the World Health Organization-China joint mission on COVID-19):

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

For everyone, especially those from countries with a less than stellar response to COVID-19, this is a very sobering read on what it takes to get on top of, and eventually ahead of, this virus.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Rather than post a bazillion links pointing out the failures of the US in dealing with COVID-19, just peruse some of the articles found here:

https://www.theatlantic.com/

https://www.vox.com/

Both are somewhat left-leaning publications, but they get good marks in securing reliable sources, and for accurate reporting.

However, from Vox, reporting on Trump's press conference this afternoon:


Trump also cautioned against too much testing capacity: “We don’t want people to take a test if we feel that they shouldn’t be doing it. And we don’t everyone running out, only if you have certain symptoms.” But while it’s true that not everyone needs to be tested, it’s these kinds of roadblocks that have led to report after report of doctors and patients struggling to get access to tests. On social media, doctors regularly complain that they can’t obtain tests for patients even if the patients display symptoms.

Donny Baby once again putting millions of Americans at risk, for what...saving a few bucks on test kits?

Then there's this:


Trump, however, suggested that all this testing is not going to be necessary, because the pandemic will reside. “Again, we don’t want everybody to take this test, it’s totally unnecessary and this will pass,” he said. “This will pass through, and we’ll be even stronger for it.”

This viewpoint isn’t new to Trump. He previously tweeted comparisons to the common flu, which in fact appears to be less deadly and spread less easily than the coronavirus. He called concerns about the virus a “hoax.” He said on national television that, based on nothing more than a self-admitted “hunch,” the death rate of the disease is much lower than public health officials projected. And in February, he said of the coronavirus, “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”

Sweet Jesus, we are so screwed. Must be taking after his VP Pence who remarked during an HIV outbreak in Indiana in 2015, that he had to "go home and pray."

And then this, highlighting just how ignorant this man is about what is about to happen in the country he is leading (from a week ago):


Donald Trump declared live on television on Wednesday night that he did not believe the World Health Organization’s assessment of the global death rate from coronavirus of 3.4%. “I think the 3.4% is really a false number,” he told Sean Hannity, one of his favorite conservative Fox News hosts, in a phone interview broadcast live.


“You know, all of a sudden it seems like 3 or 4%, which is a very high number, as opposed to a fraction of 1%,” he said, perhaps referring to the typical death rate for influenza, which is well below 1%. Trump said: “But again, they don’t know about the easy cases because the easy cases don’t go to the hospital. They don’t report to doctors or the hospital in many cases. So I think that that number is very high. I think the number, personally, I would say the number is way under 1%.”

Too bad he can't be sued for wrongful death, because this kind of attitude, and this kind of ignorance, is going to get a lot of people killed.

And lastly this gem:


Trump also appeared to reject his own administration’s advice for people feeling unwell to stay at home. He said: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better, and then when you do have a death, like you’ve had in the state of Washington, like you had one in California, I believe you had one in New York.”

I ain't waiting for your miracle anytime soon, Donny Baby:rolleyes:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

"More than 125,000 people have been diagnosed with Covid-19 in 118 countries around the world, according to the World Health Organization. The total number of deaths is more than 4,600."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51862347

This is just not OK, this is not "fear porn".

Covid-19 is a significant global health threat. The media coverage of same is both legitimate information that we need to know, AND "fear porn." That "pornographic" effect is a by-product of the process of broadcast journalism and the 24-hour news cycle, not an attempt at manipulation or pandering.

Journalism teaches its practitioners to focus on the conflict elements within a story, as it is from the conflictual element that a story gains its power/appeal and because that is a primary tool for uncovering those facts that have NOT been revealed. So each story focuses on the problem and its potential damaging effects because those are, by the lights of journalistic norms, THE facts most important to the story. Couple that to not one hour of news from two hosts, but 24 hours of news from 12-20 hosts each of whom repeats those salient facts and THAT is what creates the over-the-top pornographic effect.

A good viewer has to factor this in and sift the facts for themselves to make a practical judgement as to their response. That is what journalism wants you to do and what you should be doing. But to suggest that the level of hype somehow means that the proximate issue is therefore NOT serious is a complete misjudgment. COVID-19 is a world health crisis of significant magnitude and it needs to be handled, at least here in the USA, a bit more definitively than it has been to date.

If anyone was pandering here it was the administration, which held on to the "Things are under control, no need to panic" mantra for a week (or three) too long. Or, even more stupidly, used that mantra while NOT getting stuff prepared to deal with the crisis that CDC and AMRID were almost certainly telling them was about to happen.

As a metaphor, "fear porn" is catchy, but you should remember that porn is, after all, sex and the sex isn't any less real for being hyped, well-lit, and over-produced.

[Montmorency]

Italians singing Bella ciao

https://twitter.com/NicholsUprising/status/1238545438476730369
https://twitter.com/SARS_COVID19/status/1238289996601122817
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1238511958116175879

[Crandar]

The agenda of the secret cabal behind corona virus is pretty obvious. Schools have been closed just before the national holiday of the 25 March, the day Mary learned the good news. That means no military parades for the students, as there is no time for rehearsals. Additionally, there is an ongoing debate over the holy communion. The government mildly suggested to perhaps avoid it, but various MPs, university professors and the ecclesiastical synod concluded that it's fine, because the blood of Jesus cannot carry germs. And all this happened less than fourty days before Easter (19 April). So yeah, the Jews are on it again (and possibly the commies as well).

[Montmorency]

The agenda of the secret cabal behind corona virus is pretty obvious. Schools have been closed just before the national holiday of the 25 March, the day Mary learned the good news. That means no military parades for the students, as there is no time for rehearsals. Additionally, there is an ongoing debate over the holy communion. The government mildly suggested to perhaps avoid it, but various MPs, university professors and the ecclesiastical synod concluded that it's fine, because the blood of Jesus cannot carry germs. And all this happened less than fourty days before Easter (19 April). So yeah, the Jews are on it again (and possibly the commies as well).

Watch the Italians, you'll feel better.

[Hooahguy]

Well its not officially a plague until someone blames the Jews, right?

[drone]

It's a plot by Trump and the GOP to mess with the census. :inquisitive:

[Montmorency]

Rory, do you have knowledge to interpret this?

https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1238284989323718668


1/ paper out yesterday examining patients from Wuhan admitted to the hospital who met endpoint of either making it to discharge or dying. Some thoughts.

2/ 191 patients met criteria for inclusion (they didn't include people who were still in the hospital being treated- only if you had died or survived to discharge).

137 survived (72%), 54 died (28%)

Remember- these are people sick enough to need a hospital, but still. Wow.

3/
Median time from illness onset to discharge was 22 days; to death was 18.5 days.

32 of the 191 (17%) required a ventilator.

31 of the 32 on a ventilator died (97%).

ECMO used in 3 patients. None survived.

RRT used in 10. None survived.

etc.


It's a plot by Trump and the GOP to mess with the census. :inquisitive:

How is that even going to be concluded? With all the people hospitalized, or dying, during the process? All the paranoia and the self-isolation? Are there volunteers coming up? So many layers of disruption.

[Gilrandir]

Bit early to be dismissive.

I'm not dismissive. I'm skeptical. To me the ratio of panic and real threat seems like 80 against 20.



By the way, as I recall you dislike Zelensky, but can you say he's outsourced national emergency response to his idiot children? (For whom he tailored tax law to funnel millions (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/trumps-win-for-black-people-is-scam-to-enrich-his-family.html) into their pockets?)

You mean if he hasn't I should like him? My reasons for dislike are so numreous that one more wouldn't really change anything. As for Zelensky and his government, they declared quarantine having officially ONE case of covid. Today we OFFICIALLY have THREE cases (one of whom is lethal). Question: Are quarantines (not in this case, but in general) declared with ONE case of a disease? Or is the government keeping something secret from us?



If you were the only Ukrainian participating in that thread, all stockpiling would have to be up to you; so that would have a simple explanation.

If one anticipate potential disruption to the distribution of goods, having some extra food around is smart. It is also smart if there is a significant risk of getting quarantined, which is the reality in many countries currently.

The outbreak of COVID-19 seems unlikely to be able to disrupt the distribution of goods directly, but buying small amounts of highly durable food comes at a minimal cost in the wealthier parts of the world, so the potential benefit doesn't have to be very large to justify it.


But you still urge to hoard edibles despite of the detected unlikelihood? And panic-ridden people are unlikely to buy SMALL amounts of food. It turns into stampede shopping redounding to the general hysteria.



Potential consequences of this virus have been on display in both South Korea and Italy already, and have been posted in this very thread. The proportions are already known: the virus appears relatively harmless for the majority of people, but there is significant risk for hospitals to get overwhelmed by abnormally high numbers of critically ill patients if big steps are not taken to halt the spread of the disease.

A contradiction: the majority of people vs critically high numbers.

And if it is relatively harmless why is there worldwide panic over it? A suggested answer: prehaps someone benefits from it?

[Viking]

But you still urge to hoard edibles despite of the detected unlikelihood?

No. I don't urge people to do anything, and certainly not to "hoard". If suddenly you are required to self-quarantine for two weeks, it's nice if you don't have to ask yourself on day one where today's dinner is going to come from.


A contradiction: the majority of people vs critically high numbers.

Abnormally high numbers of critically ill patients overwhelm the capacity of hospitals to treat patients in intensive care, because most hospitals do not operate with large amounts of this type of spare capacity. Even if just a small fraction of the population becomes critically ill, it will overwhelm the hospitals if it happens over a short time span. It's a lot like a natural disaster, except now there will be much fewer hospitals around with spare capacity that can help share the load because the disease is simultaneously spreading over entire countries globally.

[Gilrandir]

No. I don't urge people to do anything, and certainly not to "hoard". If suddenly you are required to self-quarantine for two weeks, it's nice if you don't have to ask yourself on day one where today's dinner is going to come from.


As far as I understood from posts, people here stockpile food anticipating not self-imposed quarantine, but delivery problems which are caused by the very attempts to buy unusual amounts of foodstuffs.



Abnormally high numbers of critically ill patients overwhelm the capacity of hospitals to treat patients in intensive care, because most hospitals do not operate with large amounts of this type of spare capacity. Even if just a small fraction of the population becomes critically ill, it will overwhelm the hospitals if it happens over a short time span. It's a lot like a natural disaster, except now there will be much fewer hospitals around with spare capacity that can help share the load because the disease is simultaneously spreading over entire countries globally.

All the cosiderations seem sound but when panic-driven population starts to implement them into actions it turns into hysteria, empty supermarket shelves and media publishing with delight daily updates on the number of infected. And again I strongly suspect that quo prosit is a relevant question in evidence of the global insanity.

[ReluctantSamurai]

To me the ratio of panic and real threat seems like 80 against 20.

What is your thought process and/or information that leads you to this conclusion?


And if it is relatively harmless why is there worldwide panic over it? A suggested answer: prehaps someone benefits from it?

Haven't we had this conversation here before? Who is this someone that benefits from this particular "world-wide panic?"

[Gilrandir]

What is your thought process and/or information that leads you to this conclusion?


The worldwide number of the sick, the mortality rate and the narrow category of people most likely to be infected are really not on par with the weareallgonnadie to-do about it.



Haven't we had this conversation here before? Who is this someone that benefits from this particular "world-wide panic?"
The beneficiaries are quite numerous. In Ukriane they are:
1. Politicians. All of them try to score PR points using COVID as a lever. Those in opposition say that when they were at power such things never happened and should they be elected again they would know how to combat the plague. Those at power claim that the situation is so dangerous because their predecessors did nothing to anticipate it.
2. Media. Sensation is what they thrive on.
3. Oligarchs. Having an influence over the first and ownership of the second they reap their fruit in the wake of both.
4. Pharmacies. Purchases of anticeptics, masks and other related goods (vitamins, anti-virus medications, etc) soared.
5. Shop owners. Food, water, toilet paper and stockpiling of other kinds brings them fabulous revenues.
6. Students. Both high school and university students rejoice over the abscence of educational process, so they flock together and hang out at malls and cafes, sport fields and playgrounds which makes school quarantine effect dubious.

These are off the top of my head. If one puts on his thinking hat he may come up with some more, I'm sure.

[Gilrandir]

I've watched ALIENS at least 20 times; Hicks never said that... Fake news!!

Perhaps it was Hudson? Gorman could never really tell them from one another. Neither could I.

[Beskar]

Yes Minister strikes again:

Sir Richard Wharton: “In stage one, we say nothing is going to happen.”

Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.”

Sir Richard Wharton: “In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there’s nothing we can do.”

Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it’s too late now.”

[Viking]

As far as I understood from posts, people here stockpile food anticipating not self-imposed quarantine, but delivery problems which are caused by the very attempts to buy unusual amounts of foodstuffs.

A couple of posters here discussed stocking up, you can debate their tactics with them directly.


All the cosiderations seem sound but when panic-driven population starts to implement them into actions it turns into hysteria, empty supermarket shelves and media publishing with delight daily updates on the number of infected.

It's difficult to prevent people from wanting to panic buy. Significant numbers of people are going to want do that once they sense that upheaval might be coming, regardless of what the government or media says. As long as the distribution and production of the relevant goods remains normal, the situation in the stores should quickly return to normal. The kind of people that would like to fill up their basement with canned food and bottled water have probably done so long ago.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Politicians.

I don't know that much about politics in the Ukraine, but elsewhere it's a double-edged sword. Undoubtedly, the quest for increasing political gravitas will occur all too frequently. However, there will be other politicians who will lose, like here in the US where Trump is showing himself to be uninformed about what we are dealing with; if the outbreak here gets really bad (which I believe it will), someone will need to take the fall for our complete and total unpreparedness. The question will be if it's Trump, or if he will be successful in deflecting the blame to someone else. Leaders in China, Italy, Iran and elsewhere where the outbreak has been severe, will come under intense scrutiny for how they handled the situation.


Students

Seriously?? How about here in the US with all the student athletes who lose a year of eligibility, or the senior athletes that can no longer participate in post-season tourney's? And that's not even to consider the assumption (false, IMHO) you make that all students are basically lazy individuals who jump at any opportunity to get out of classes.


Media. Sensation is what they thrive on

Absolutely not the case. Sure they get a lot more viewers covering this pandemic which increase their advertising revenue, but I would venture that's not enough to offset the losses from events they cover being cancelled. Some of the largest media companies in the world are here in the US and they are going to lose billions (that's billions) because of the loss of revenue from cancelled sporting events. Taking just one cancelled event---the NCAA basketball tournament (know as March Madness) generated 1.32 BILLION last year. You think CBS and Turner Broadcasting (the two media companies that cover the majority of the games) are happy about all the media coverage of COVID-19?

Shop owners and pharmacies? In the short term, yes they will probably be experiencing upticks in business. Outside of price-gouging, what's wrong with that? The outbreak is not their fault, and they don't even have a way to influence ongoing events. They are a passive player in all of this.


Oligarchs.

See my earlier replies to Politicians and Media.


The worldwide number of the sick, the mortality rate and the narrow category of people most likely to be infected are really not on par with the weareallgonnadie to-do about it.


No, we're not allgonnadie. But many will, some unnecessarily. And the wild-card in all of this is that the number of "most-likely to be infected" may change. These types of viruses have a propensity to mutate, and the longer it hangs around, and the wider it gets spread, the greater the chances the constant mutations they go through will result in something far more deadly than where it started from. In the 1918 H1N1 outbreak, it wasn't the first wave of infections that had the high lethality. It was the second wave that came several months after the first wave started.

[drone]

How is that even going to be concluded? With all the people hospitalized, or dying, during the process? All the paranoia and the self-isolation? Are there volunteers coming up? So many layers of disruption.

I made a joke, but I do think this is going to be a big issue. Off the top of my head:

You can't have census takers going door-to-door while the pandemic is uncontrolled, this would be insanity.
The worst case scenarios will remove a large number of people from the count.
The economic situation after the pandemic is uncertain, there may be large population movement as businesses are shuttered.

They will need to wait until this blows over, but I'm sure there are laws and layers of bureaucracy to cope with to delay it. And with the hyper-partisan environment we are in, both side will accuse the other of trying to gain an advantage.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Just for s@#$% and giggles, and because I have a crap-load of time on my hands, I was thinking about the "cosmic" reasons for COVID-19 (other than small critters doing what they've always done for thousands of years).

Because I love "what-if" scenarios, I came up with this one:

What if the COVID-19 outbreak causes Donald Trump to lose the US 2020 presidential election to (pick your Democratic poison)? What if the major disaster occurring in Iran (which is likely to get even worse) causes such unrest in the Iranian public that Hassan Rouhani and maybe even Ali Khamenei are ousted? And in China, what would happen if Xi Jinping also is ousted as General Secretary of the Communist Party? What happens next to world politics?

Feel free to add/subtract or manipulate the above scenario in any way you like.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-latest-news-uk-covid-19-self-isolation-deaths-cases2/

Some point - cases continue to rise in Italy as people defy instructions not to gather together in public, factory workers have begun striking as they are expected to continue working whilst shops close.

Panic buying in the UK is now reaching crisis levels, paracetamol is increasingly hard to find and thermometers are basically all sold out. I admit, I among many other idiots did not buy one when I left home - and indication of our poor attitude to disease.

[Montmorency]

Unfortunately, right-wing nutjobs have been undermining South Korea (https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/clandestine-cults-and-cynical-politics-how-south-korea-became-the-new-coronavirus-epicenter/)'s otherwise-effective response.

OT: hooah, is Georgia no longer legally obligated to ensure the integrity of its elections?


I'm not dismissive. I'm skeptical. To me the ratio of panic and real threat seems like 80 against 20.

I'm not sure why you think the posting here rises to the level of panic, but prevention mitigates threat. In many parts of the world there has been subpar prevention, and the threat has concomitantly increased. (Note the inconvenient similariy to climate action.)


You mean if he hasn't I should like him? My reasons for dislike are so numreous that one more wouldn't really change anything. As for Zelensky and his government, they declared quarantine having officially ONE case of covid. Today we OFFICIALLY have THREE cases (one of whom is lethal). Question: Are quarantines (not in this case, but in general) declared with ONE case of a disease? Or is the government keeping something secret from us?

There is not 1 case, there are many tens of thousands. Borders do not mediate viruses.


And if it is relatively harmless why is there worldwide panic over it? A suggested answer: prehaps someone benefits from it?

Russian foreign policy is "relatively harmless" to individual Ukrainians in a similar way...


As far as I understood from posts, people here stockpile food anticipating not self-imposed quarantine, but delivery problems which are caused by the very attempts to buy unusual amounts of foodstuffs.


1-2 weeks supply. It can be as simple as a few kilograms of rice, beans, and oatmeal. Of course that's much more challenging for low-income (in these times, low-savings) people or those without much living space. Homeless in a pandemic? Forgetaboutit.

Some people have unproductive panic reactions, but this largely manifests (in terms of consumer behavior) as hoarding toilet paper, water, masks, and disinfectant, none of which the typical person will need in quantity. Food availability overall is not a problem. By the way, protip: in the coming days, when you go shopping you're going to want to buy a little bit extra each time. Why? First in order to minimize the number of times you go to the store, but primarily because the panic response in the population is a vicious cycle caught in a prisoner's dilemma. And there will be an acute wave of panic hitting Ukraine at some point soon. (I'm assuming it hasn't yet.)

People will, in large numbers, suddenly tune in to the necessity of stockpiling in case of quarantine, and will all rush to purchase zapas at the same time. Some food items in some locations will be in short supply due to JIT modern inventory systems. You see empty shelves, you have an impulse to buy out of fear of shortages (caused by hoarders and panic buyers), contributing to the empty shelves. Subsequent shoppers who arrive and see empty shelves experience fear, stoke conflict with other shoppers, and the cycle deepens. Thankfully, not that many people actually succumb and the supply chain adjusts within days as people saturate themselves on bulk purchases and demand reverts to the mean. Late March/early April is gonna be unnerving for you though. When you see it, remind people to slow down and that any shortages are only temporary.

Tangentially, I remember what the USSR would do to people like this (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html).


And again I strongly suspect that quo prosit is a relevant question in evidence of the global insanity.

It's scary, but there is a world beyond human affairs. Sometimes it intrudes on those affairs.


The worldwide number of the sick, the mortality rate and the narrow category of people most likely to be infected are really not on par with the weareallgonnadie to-do about it.


Distinguish between we're-all-gonna-die panic and the sober many-of-us-will-probably-die reckoning.


These are off the top of my head. If one puts on his thinking hat he may come up with some more, I'm sure.

This is such a shallow insight into world affairs. Think about how it looks applied to Chernobyl:

The beneficiaries of the Chernobyl panic are quite numerous. In Ukraine they are:

1. Party apparatchiks: All of them try to score PR points using Chernobyl as a lever. Competing factions say when they were in power such things never happened and should they be elevated they would know how to combat the radiation. Those in power claim that the situation is so dangerous because their predecessors did nothing to anticipate it.

2. Media: Good opportunity to blame the Western capitalists.

3. Future oligarchs: It's a great excuse to agitate for Ukrainian independence.

4. Pharmacies: Purchases of iodine soared.

5. Scientists and doctors: The educated eggheads get to claim domain of expertise over the incident and increase their authority and prestige.

6. Students. Both high school and university students rejoice at the cancellation of classes and the adventure of evacuation.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-in-an-era-of-the-well-and-unwell-we-turn-to-the-state-and-find-it-lacking

Here's someone explaining how it's not a conspiracy theory and certain people here (and Simon Jenkins) are talking nonsense.

Mind you, the journalist's last name is Cohen so...

[Montmorency]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-in-an-era-of-the-well-and-unwell-we-turn-to-the-state-and-find-it-lacking


Luck obsesses the world of the sick, which is just another way of saying that death obsesses us [...] so the world of the sick is a world of “what ifs”.

yeah


Having lived on the edge of the world of the sick for a decade, however, I wonder if our leaders realise how frightened people look to the state. Every crisis of the 21st century has proved the state’s centrality.

Weak (social welfare) state = weak communal and civic bonds = more panic, mistrust, and misinformation in a crisis. IMO


BTW

https://i.imgur.com/iRCggb1.png

[Shaka_Khan]

Unfortunately, right-wing nutjobs have been undermining South Korea (https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/clandestine-cults-and-cynical-politics-how-south-korea-became-the-new-coronavirus-epicenter/)'s otherwise-effective response.
One of the things that I learned from life is to not trust just one politician's and one political party's claims and accusations. I met one politician before. While I don't think he's an exact representation of every politician out there, he did give me a bad impression. The things that politicians like him do is to verbally put down the other side. He resorted to defamation.

It's interesting that it's hard to find articles on the opposition's point of view in English. I know a lot of South Koreans who support the opposition. They're not the "right-wing nutjobs" that the ruling party finds it convenient to label them as. Although the current administration is being one of the fastest in dealing with this pandemic now, it seems that way because so many other governments have done even worse. In reality, there were warnings by the Korean Medical Association about the potential for this to spread to Korea since January. The South Korean government originally ignored those warnings, which is why the virus spread so early into South Korea after China. The fact is that it was the current South Korean president who claimed that the virus in Korea would be over soon in early February. He and his government encouraged people to go back to normal routine. The cult was just trusting the president's words and held a mass gathering. The infection rate grew exponentially after that. Btw, there's no connection between the opposition party and the cult in that article. I'm not telling you which side to choose. I'm suggesting that you should have the whole story before you make up your mind about a group of people.

There are videos of Gordon Chang, who's a Chinese-American, supporting the South Korean opposition against the ruling party.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNDDdDxsc-0


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXKbfHTlsWs

[Montmorency]

That doesn't address such details as:


Members of the group were told to refrain from wearing face masks as their belief in Lee and God would shield them from the virus, in some cases they were told to endure disease and attend church services. Since the outbreak, the sect has actively stifled government requests for transparency, providing false lists of church members and encouraging members to hide from authorities.

Conservative politicians have been relentless in criticizing Moon for not imposing a blanket travel-ban on Chinese visitors, a decision which would have had devastating impacts for a country so reliant on Chinese commerce. Conservative populists also ignored government warnings against large scale congregations and continued to hold rallies in Seoul. The conservative firebrand, Jun Kwang-hun, falsely mislead his followers – most of which are elderly and susceptible to infection — that the coronavirus outbreak was impossible to contract outdoors.

Or the information on the general proliferation of unchecked Christian cults in Korean society and government.

From an article (https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/lessons-from-south-koreas-covid-19-outbreak-the-good-bad-and-ugly/) on the "good, the bad, and the ugly" of the South Korean response:


So far, South Korea and Taiwan are among the few countries to have demonstrated robust and consistent SOPs. This is not surprising given that each has invested heavily in infectious disease control following prior experiences with SARS and MERS. South Korea’s SOP essentially calls for five steps: an aggressive and transparent information campaign, high volume testing, quarantine of infected individuals, treatment of those in need, and disinfection of contaminated environments. These may seem like obvious measures, but proper execution is ultimately what decides their effectiveness.
[...]
Every expert I have spoken to, domestic and abroad, agrees that South Korea’s information and testing are nothing short of enviable. The quality of these systems, however, doesn’t mean much unless the public is willing to use them. It is here that the murkier issue of voluntary compliance rears its head, bringing along essential considerations of culture and religion.

Koreans, quite fortunately, tend to be very socially conscious, willing to go out of their way to reduce risks for others. From the perspective of virus containment, this is an incredible gift.
[...]
Despite its advantageous culture, South Korea has nevertheless experienced notable exceptions to public compliance. By the numbers, cases involving the elderly have been most prevalent. Through the last month, we have received sporadic reports of seniors across South Korea refusing testing or quarantine. The most publicized example is a 61-year-old woman in Daegu who refused testing on two occasions despite having significant contact with an infected patient. This woman, referred to as “patient 31,” ended up infecting another 37 people. Last week, the government passed a law making violations of quarantine by infected patients an imprisonable offense, giving doctors greater authority to protect the public. Other countries would do well to consider similar implements empowering their medical and emergency staff. In Busan, we have also found seniors to be most likely to hold misconceptions and misgivings about the SOP. Part of this seems due to political leanings (discussed later) while another part is attributable to low science literacy. South Korea, as a nation, does have one of the highest rates of science literacy in the world but this characteristic rarely extends to those in their 50s and 60s.
[...]
A second, perhaps more important, group to consider are individuals of faith. Religious beliefs can have profound effects on cooperation if those beliefs come into conflict with science or the SOP. Similar conflicts are known to have prolonged the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in Africa. In South Korea, members and direct acquaintances of the church group Shincheonji account for a staggering two-thirds of all COVID-19 cases . The group’s unique worship style, which involves hundreds of people cramming together in confined spaces for hours, is indubitably responsible for high transmission between members. Last week, the Ministry of Justice revealed 42 Shincheonji members had returned from Wuhan in January, making it extremely likely that the original virus carriers were among this group. Although not all details have been released to the public, it appears the Shincheonji organization also tried to hide the fact that its members were infected, contributing significantly to high outbreak numbers in Daegu and surrounding Gyeong-buk province, which together account for over 85 percent of all South Korean cases.

Over the last two weeks, some Korean media outlets have begun putting forth a steady stream of criticism about the Moon administration’s handling of the outbreak. These criticisms have exhibited a decidedly political slant with lawmakers from the opposition United Future Party taking the lead. The complaints focused initially on President Moon Jae-in’s decision in January not to place an entry ban on Chinese nationals, a decision that remains in place. Although this ban might have helped reduce the number of infections modestly, we now know, as explained above, that Shincheonji likely had a much greater impact. Despite the new information, criticisms have not abated. Instead, they have simply transferred to other topics, such as the shortage of protective masks. As a scientist volunteering to maintain SOP compliance at the local level, I am extremely disappointed by this politicization of the outbreak. I can say with some authority that the negative coverage has started to make my job, and the jobs of my many colleagues, more difficult. Seniors, the demographic most likely to support the United Future Party and most likely to die from COVID-19, have recently started citing Moon’s “incompetence” as an excuse to dismiss or question SOP procedures, making everyone less safe and containment of the virus unnecessarily more challenging.

As for Moon's response, all accounts (http://blog.keia.org/2020/01/south-korea-commits-transparency-looks-contain-wuhan-coronavirus/) I find contradict your description.

[Gilrandir]

Significant numbers of people are going to want do that once they sense that upheaval might be coming, regardless of what the government or media says.


And how did they start to sense anything? Perhaps because they have seen or heard something in the media or from the government (in the same media).




As long as the distribution and production of the relevant goods remains normal, the situation in the stores should quickly return to normal. The kind of people that would like to fill up their basement with canned food and bottled water have probably done so long ago.

Oh really? I refer you to



Panic buying in the UK is now reaching crisis levels, paracetamol is increasingly hard to find and thermometers are basically all sold out. I admit, I among many other idiots did not buy one when I left home - and indication of our poor attitude to disease.


I don't know that much about politics in the Ukraine, but elsewhere it's a double-edged sword.


This fact never prevented the foolhardy from attempts to play with the sword being sure it will cut the way they want it to.




And that's not even to consider the assumption (false, IMHO) you make that all students are basically lazy individuals who jump at any opportunity to get out of classes.


Having a 25-year experience of working with students and a daughter who finished high school two years ago and now is a University student I can claim that it is the way I described them. And the sutuation has been steadily exacerbating.

As to the problem in question: three days ago I informed my 35 some students of my skype and the manner of communicating with them during the quarantine. How many of them responded to say nothing of registering for distant classes? Take a guess.



Absolutely not the case. Sure they get a lot more viewers covering this pandemic which increase their advertising revenue, but I would venture that's not enough to offset the losses from events they cover being cancelled. Some of the largest media companies in the world are here in the US and they are going to lose billions (that's billions) because of the loss of revenue from cancelled sporting events. Taking just one cancelled event---the NCAA basketball tournament (know as March Madness) generated 1.32 BILLION last year. You think CBS and Turner Broadcasting (the two media companies that cover the majority of the games) are happy about all the media coverage of COVID-19?


There is such a thing as vantage theory. In general it boils down to the premise that all of us look at things from different perspectives and therefore see only things that are open to view from there. The same is in this case. You make conclusions looking at your environment and don't consider (and mostly are not aware of) things that remain unseen form the USA.

In Ukraine TV channels are free (you have to buy a digital TV converter and an antenna, but that done you don't pay anything). ALL OF THEM are commercially unprofitable and are financed by oligarchs 5-6 of them owning 95% of TV channels. So in Ukraine media don't think of losing money because someone else will pay for them anyway. And having a subject to talk about for the next month or more and lots of people obliged to stay at home and watch TV will certainly increase their ratings.

As for March madness, never shared it. Watching students while you have an opportunity to watch NBA is like buying small, upripe and sour appples when you have access to big sweet ones.



Shop owners and pharmacies? In the short term, yes they will probably be experiencing upticks in business. Outside of price-gouging, what's wrong with that? The outbreak is not their fault, and they don't even have a way to influence ongoing events. They are a passive player in all of this.


It is not their fault, but they benefit from it and they may whisper in their customers' ear that it is better to buy things now before they run out of everything/ before prices soar.



In the 1918 H1N1 outbreak, it wasn't the first wave of infections that had the high lethality. It was the second wave that came several months after the first wave started.

Is it 1920 now or am I missing something? I believe that a hundred years that has passed since then must have brought some progress into medicine, no?



I'm not sure why you think the posting here rises to the level of panic, but prevention mitigates threat.


So you believe that posting here facilitates prevention? As I can surmise it is an update on the number of the infected, comparison of mortality rates and description of what is happening in locations posters hail from. All taken together it may raise the level of imminent threat feeling and when all around you keep talking of it night and day panic is just around the corner.



There is not 1 case, there are many tens of thousands. Borders do not mediate viruses.


I meant Ukraine where quarantine was announced whith officially 1 person infected. As for borders, the whole world would be much safer now if all outgoing traffic from China had been cut the day they showed the footage of a man "falling dead in his tracks on the street". By the way it is what China itself has done to its province.



Russian foreign policy is "relatively harmless" to individual Ukrainians in a similar way...


23 Ukrainian individulas whose job was serving in the army were killed since the year started. Yet these consequences of relatively harmless Russian foreign policy didn't cause any panic in Ukraine.



And there will be an acute wave of panic hitting Ukraine at some point soon. (I'm assuming it hasn't yet.)


It has been sporadically spotted. As the saying goes, В любой непонятной ситуации покупай побольше гречки. And journalists broadcast live from supermarkets interviewing the anxious shoppers. Which surely doesn't redound to the panic level now does it?



When you see it, remind people to slow down and that any shortages are only temporary.


Do you think people will listen to cautionary voices trying to reason with them or will share in the general panic?



Tangentially, I remember what the USSR would do to people like this (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html).


Depends on what USSR you mean. If Stalin's USSR then расстрел без суда и следствия по законам военного времени. In Brezhnev's USSR it was a typical modus operandi of the majority of population so if all the goods were legally acquired it wouldn't probably incur any drastic consequences.



Think about how it looks applied to Chernobyl:

The beneficiaries of the Chernobyl panic are quite numerous. In Ukraine they are:

1. Party apparatchiks: All of them try to score PR points using Chernobyl as a lever. Competing factions say when they were in power such things never happened and should they be elevated they would know how to combat the radiation. Those in power claim that the situation is so dangerous because their predecessors did nothing to anticipate it.


Wrong. There was no opposition in the Party among small fry. At the upper floors there might have been some surreptitious (and sometimes open) struggle especially by the end of the USSR but average aparatchiks ever attuned themselves to the official position and changed their attitude instantly when линия партии altered. And at the time of Chernobyl the party leaders were as monolith as ever to say nothing of their subordinates. At least outwardly it looked that way never revealing a crack in this monolith.



2. Media: Good opportunity to blame the Western capitalists.

4. Pharmacies: Purchases of iodine soared.


Media as well as pharmacies (and shops by the way) were all state-owned which means they would continue functioning they way they did whatever happens around them. So it didn't really matter to them what happened.



3. Future oligarchs: It's a great excuse to agitate for Ukrainian independence.


At that time agitating for Ukrainian independence was a crime so pursued by nationalistic romatic dissidents only. Any would-be oligarch is a money-calculating person so idealistic tenets didn't (and don't) beckon to them.



5. Scientists and doctors: The educated eggheads get to claim domain of expertise over the incident and increase their authority and prestige.


They were embedded into the party system so the blame for the accident was put on them in the same degree, and even greater. In the mass mentality it could be epitomized by the phrase
эти ученые доигрались.



6. Students. Both high school and university students rejoice at the cancellation of classes and the adventure of evacuation.

There was no cancellation, lessons proceded as usual, moreover the Первомайская демонстрация was held in Kyiv with lots of children and grown ups getting radiation doses. Although student ever rejoice at any class cancellation, it is true.

In general, quoting you


This is such a shallow insight into world USSR affairs.

[Gilrandir]

And for Montmorency - another category of COVID beneficiaries:
https://golos.ua/i/739478

[Viking]

And how did they start to sense anything? Perhaps because they have seen or heard something in the media or from the government (in the same media).

Yes, as they should have, since it's part of the job of the government and the media to keep people informed of such things.


Oh really? I refer you to

People will panic buy until they are stocked up to a level they are comfortable with. Then the volume of purchased goods will return to normal, which should not take too long as most people are presumably not trying to fill their entire basement or apartment with goods.


Is it 1920 now or am I missing something? I believe that a hundred years that has passed since then must have brought some progress into medicine, no?

Until recently, as resistance has started to become a serious issue, bacteria were not so scary anymore because of the discovery of antibiotics. We have no antiviral drugs with equivalent potential:


Among the myriad infectious disease threats humans face from bacteria, prions, parasites, protozoa, fungi, ectoparasites, and viruses, it is viral infections that arguably constitute the biggest pandemic threat in the modern era. The replication rates and transmissibility of viruses are two major factors that underlie this threat. However, at least one additional factor plays an essential role: the lack of ‘broad-spectrum’ antiviral agents. Indeed, while bacteria can still cause substantial epidemics in parts of the world where access to clean water and/or antimicrobials is limited, the pandemic threats posed by bacteria, such as from the plague-causing Yersinia pestis, has been substantially diminished in the antibiotic era [1]. For viruses that pose epidemic risks, on the other hand, current therapeutic options are more limited.

Viruses, by their obligate parasitical nature, must use host cell machinery for many functions. Thus, antiviral strategies must be directed at the virus specifically with care to avoid interfering with host cellular function. As such, the number of clear targets per virus may be limited. By contrast, bacterial protein synthesis, for example, occurs via ribosomes that belong to the bacteria and are disparate enough from human ribosomes in identity that specific antibiotics can be deployed to target only bacterial protein synthesis. This unique feature of viruses, which derives from their very nature, serves to delimit antiviral therapies in a manner not applicable to antibacterial therapies.

Additionally, other characteristics of viruses serve as obstacles to broad-spectrum antiviral agents. These include differences between RNA and DNA viruses, vastly different virally encoded proteins across viral families, single or double strand genomic structure, cytoplasmic or nuclear replications cycles, and degree of reliance on host proteins.

Broad-Spectrum Antiviral Agents: A Crucial Pandemic Tool (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14787210.2019.1635009)

[Gilrandir]

Yes, as they should have, since it's part of the job of the government and the media to keep people informed of such things.

Informed or hysteric?



People will panic buy until they are stocked up to a level they are comfortable with.


Ukrainians who survived famines and dearth of the 1990s have it in their genes to stockpile as much as possible. And shops just wouldn't keep up with the speed the goods disappear form the shelves if jounalists continue to broadcast live from the said shops fanning the hysteria to leaping height.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I can claim that it is the way I described them

I don't question your experience where you live. Just sayin' it's not like that here. I'm sure that there's a significant portion of students who are gleefully kicking back and enjoying their vacation, but there's a lot of students, particularly student athletes that have a future in professional sports that are not enjoying this at all.


And having a subject to talk about for the next month or more and lots of people obliged to stay at home and watch TV will certainly increase their ratings.

I would venture that you have a peculiar situation there with your media. World wide, most media companies will be losing billions of dollars because of the revenue loss from cancelled sporting events.


Is it 1920 now or am I missing something? I believe that a hundred years that has passed since then must have brought some progress into medicine, no?

You missed the point I was trying to make, completely. Of course we've made tremendous strides in medical care since then. I was referring to the complacency amongst younger people (at least here) who feel they are bulletproof to COVID-19 (and tend to be the most vocal in saying this whole outbreak is over blown). Even in its' present form, young people can, and have, died from it. However (and this is why I referenced the 1918 pandemic), viruses have a huge propensity to mutate. Now the vast majority of those mutations don't mean a thing, swapping a molecule here, a little twist in the RNA chain there, and nothing happens. BUT, on occasion, one of these mutations hits the jackpot (as far as the virus is concerned) and now things can go one of two ways; the virus gets less lethal (as the EVD virus that causes Ebola has been trying to do), or it gets more lethal (as the H1N1 virus did in 1918). Lets just hope COVID-19 doesn't figure out the more lethal pathway.


jounalists continue to broadcast live from the said shops fanning the hysteria to leaping height.

Question. Will it be hysteria if this virus finds its' way into the Ukraine at levels that other areas of the world are experiencing?

[Viking]

Informed or hysteric?

A completely neutral description is all that is necessary for significant numbers of people to start panic buying. If people had most of their information from rumours rather than news media, panic buying has the potential to get even worse than what it is now. It could be that some of the people panic buying now actually are acting more on rumours than what they personally read in the media. On of the biggest triggers for panic buying is also probably the government introducing restrictions.


And shops just wouldn't keep up with the speed the goods disappear form the shelves if jounalists continue to broadcast live from the said shops fanning the hysteria to leaping height.

There is a peak, then it calms down.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The UK has no thermometers, won't have any for two weeks.

[rory_20_uk]

I think panic buying is both a good thing (to a point) and is also something the Government wants to happen.

If every home in the UK has more provisions than usual then the logistics of feeding the UK is easier when things get really bad - suddenly the inability to get a delivery for a few days or even a week or so just means you use your supplies rather than have to get food by breaking quarantine. Ideally for the next month or so, all shops should be being constantly restocked with as much non-perishable food being carted off as possible.
The government is also doing barely nothing to stop it - bar allowing delivery lorries to arrive earlier and later to stock the shops up. Again, priming the pumps rather than controlling purchases (bar a few items - but even then ensuring good hygiene in a quarantine is a good idea).

The elderly are probably going to be indoors for 3 months. As in should not leave their house. At all. I doubt any persons, bar the "preppers" have that much food packed away.

So, when you're at the shops do us all a favour and whilst there's still easy food on the shelves being brought in by the literal truck load, take home as much as you can afford so you will be one less headache for the government when the bodies start piling up.

~:smoking:

[Viking]

The UK has no thermometers, won't have any for two weeks.

Presumably people are not stockpiling thermometers. Unless they intend to resell them, which is a somewhat different issue.

[ReluctantSamurai]

This article is an excellent way to get familiar with what virologists are doing right at this moment:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html

While there are as many dis-similarities as the opposite (medical advancements, different social conditions, etc.), a couple of things stand out:


If a severe pandemic, such as occurred in 1918 happened today, it would still likely overwhelm health care infrastructure, both in the United States and across the world. Hospitals and doctors’ offices would struggle to meet demand from the number of patients requiring care. Such an event would require significant increases in the manufacture, distribution and supply of medications, products and life-saving medical equipment, such as mechanical ventilators. Businesses and schools would struggle to function, and even basic services like trash pickup and waste removal could be impacted.


Other challenges at a global level include surveillance capacity, infrastructure and pandemic planning. The majority of counties that report to the WHO still do not have a national pandemic plan, and critical and clinical care capacity, especially in low income countries, continues to be inadequate to the demands of a severe pandemic.3 In 2005, milestones were created in the revised International Health Regulations (IHR) for countries to improve their response capacity for public health emergencies, but in 2016, only one-third of countries were in compliance.

Prophetic? The article was updated on 17 December 2019. Can't find the original publication date.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I think panic buying is both a good thing (to a point) and is also something the Government wants to happen.

If every home in the UK has more provisions than usual then the logistics of feeding the UK is easier when things get really bad - suddenly the inability to get a delivery for a few days or even a week or so just means you use your supplies rather than have to get food by breaking quarantine. Ideally for the next month or so, all shops should be being constantly restocked with as much non-perishable food being carted off as possible.
The government is also doing barely nothing to stop it - bar allowing delivery lorries to arrive earlier and later to stock the shops up.

Rory, I see your logic and agree with it mostly. But while some fear is good to spur individuals to take care of themselves, there is a problem with this hands off approach by government.

At a minimum, there should be laws in place during national emergencies for mandatory rationing, enforced by the stores to prevent people from buying up all the hand sanitizer and isopropyl. We want people to get their butts to the store and stock up, not see empty shelves and start fighting each other.

[rory_20_uk]

Rory, I see your logic and agree with it mostly. But while some fear is good to spur individuals to take care of themselves, there is a problem with this hands off approach by government.

At a minimum, there should be laws in place during national emergencies for mandatory rationing, enforced by the stores to prevent people from buying up all the hand sanitizer and isopropyl. We want people to get their butts to the store and stock up, not see empty shelves and start fighting each other.

First off, soap is absolutely fine - if not better. I bought 4 bars a few weeks back. And we've still got some left. Shops seem to have no problem with soap.
Secondly, laws require enforcement. So how would you enforce the rules? Get the National Guard to the checkouts? And this might make people panic a whole lot more; toilet paper is a surprisingly important thing - but I imagine that the amount manufactured can be increased very quickly. Supermarkets around here are just bringing pallets of the stuff out of the warehouse and yes they're quickly being depleted. Which is a good thing.
The rates of fighting so far are much less than seen at the "typical" Black Friday event. Sure, I'd rather none at all, but this is a small price to pay for the general grasping of urgency to get stuff.

~:smoking:

[a completely inoffensive name]

Rory, I know about soap. I've experience with clean rooms and sterilization of equipment as part of my work. Regular people dont know this stuff though, they think the only thing that can kill germs and viruses are in the pharmacy section. I am sure you can still pick up soap and aftershave right now.

As far as enforcement, it's as simple as the store saying "sorry sir, only two per person" and having a single town cop at the front of the store. Am I under thinking this?

[rory_20_uk]

Rory, I know about soap. I've experience with clean rooms and sterilization of equipment as part of my work. Regular people dont know this stuff though, they think the only thing that can kill germs and viruses are in the pharmacy section. I am sure you can still pick up soap and aftershave right now.

As far as enforcement, it's as simple as the store saying "sorry sir, only two per person" and having a single town cop at the front of the store. Am I under thinking this?

For "regular people" not to know requires wilfully ignoring every outlet that is stating this simple fact. So on this front is it not supply it is that we have an overabundance of morons.

If everyone would cheerfully accept the two per person, there would probably not need to be the two per person. So, what about when each person's child is a separate "person", or the same person just wants to pay several times? Or uses the self checkouts repeatedly? Although people have the inability to grasp soap = good, they'll think of many ways of technically following the rules whilst clearly taking the piss.

In a large supermarket, there might be 20 or more checkout lanes. What happens if the cop is busy on isle one and isle 14 has an issue? And if this is the USA, let's pretend in both cases the person is white so you can't just shoot one of them. And one cop per store would mean that there's a massive reduction in police elsewhere. The UK certainly doesn't really have spare capacity in this, and I'd rather they were at least pretending to try to solve crimes.

~:smoking:

[a completely inoffensive name]

For "regular people" not to know requires wilfully ignoring every outlet that is stating this simple fact. So on this front is it not supply it is that we have an overabundance of morons.

If everyone would cheerfully accept the two per person, there would probably not need to be the two per person. So, what about when each person's child is a separate "person", or the same person just wants to pay several times? Or uses the self checkouts repeatedly? Although people have the inability to grasp soap = good, they'll think of many ways of technically following the rules whilst clearly taking the piss.

In a large supermarket, there might be 20 or more checkout lanes. What happens if the cop is busy on isle one and isle 14 has an issue? And if this is the USA, let's pretend in both cases the person is white so you can't just shoot one of them. And one cop per store would mean that there's a massive reduction in police elsewhere. The UK certainly doesn't really have spare capacity in this, and I'd rather they were at least pretending to try to solve crimes.

~:smoking:

Are you surprised people are dumb and ignorant!?!? Always plan based on the stupidest person you can imagine then go one further.

Most people respond to signals of authority and order. Signs that say 2 per person with an authority figure nearby cuts down on the problem more than one would think. Also you can just turn off self checkout. Also every store has their own loss prevention resource.

Most of what you are saying is easily resolvable at the moment of transaction. If someone wants to go back to the end of the line for another two, that's not even a problem. Read up on the guy with 17,000 cases of sanitizer that's what we are trying to prevent, and they are not going to risk getting arrested over toilet paper, they will find some easier scam to make their money.

In national emergencies, lack of resources is a given and the main priority is maintaining public order. If you got robbed during an epidemic that's bad luck, idk what to tell you.

[Montmorency]

Italian obituaries. Everyone watch this clip!
https://twitter.com/benphillips76/status/1238854071509016577


So you believe that posting here facilitates prevention? As I can surmise it is an update on the number of the infected, comparison of mortality rates and description of what is happening in locations posters hail from. All taken together it may raise the level of imminent threat feeling and when all around you keep talking of it night and day panic is just around the corner.

Is your problem with this thread, government responses around the world, media responses, or what? We're just here to shoot the shit with some online folk.


Is it 1920 now or am I missing something? I believe that a hundred years that has passed since then must have brought some progress into medicine, no?

If the healthcare system is operating beyond capacity, its ideal or potential effectiveness is obviated.

One estimate I saw suggested <1% COVID-19 fatality rate under normal operations, but up to 5% under overrun. And when healthcare systems are overrun, it's not just COVID-19 patients who are affected - it's everyone else relying on the system too. Cascading mortality...

@Samurai: SARS-2 is gonna kill young people just fine if they get into a car accident and it turns out the nearest hospitals are overflowing converted COVID wards.


By the way it is what China itself has done to its province.

Yes, theoretically if you implement the most effective and draconian containment regime in history and physically obstruct every possible disease vector then there is no pandemic. So far in history disease finds a way. States are not omnipotent or omniscient. The Ukrainian government does, however, have the advantage of time to view the development of the pandemic, should it choose to take it.


23 Ukrainian individulas whose job was serving in the army were killed since the year started. Yet these consequences of relatively harmless Russian foreign policy didn't cause any panic in Ukraine.

There was significantly more panic in 2014-15, which I gathered from reading, uh, your posts here, reading the news, and thirdhand from relatives in Ukraine (I think some of them live near Dnepr). The foreign policy situation is now stabler, as opposed to the developing pandemic.


В любой непонятной ситуации покупай побольше гречки.

https://i.imgur.com/SkMIr4b.jpg

:verycool:


In general, quoting you

That was, like, my point. :laugh4:

Although to be pedantic there was a mandatory evacuation of school-age children in May, out to at least Kyiv. Right? You're young enough to have potentially been affected.


And for Montmorency - another category of COVID beneficiaries:
https://golos.ua/i/739478

In reference to the NYT article on profiteers vis-a-vis the Soviet system: there were many such people in Leningrad...



Are you surprised people are dumb and ignorant!?!? Always plan based on the stupidest person you can imagine then go one further.

Most people respond to signals of authority and order. Signs that say 2 per person with an authority figure nearby cuts down on the problem more than one would think. Also you can just turn off self checkout. Also every store has their own loss prevention resource.

Most of what you are saying is easily resolvable at the moment of transaction. If someone wants to go back to the end of the line for another two, that's not even a problem. Read up on the guy with 17,000 cases of sanitizer that's what we are trying to prevent, and they are not going to risk getting arrested over toilet paper, they will find some easier scam to make their money.

In national emergencies, lack of resources is a given and the main priority is maintaining public order. If you got robbed during an epidemic that's bad luck, idk what to tell you.

Toilet paper is a low-margin high-bulk item, so when it goes it goes quickly in a JIT age with minimum backroom storage. Just throwing that out there. It gets restocked quick, but people shopping and seeing empty lots or shelves don't perceive that.

Stores, at least large chains in America, have already begun implementing customer limits on items such as wipes and disinfectants. This actually hurts another demographic you may not have considered: women and their families. Since women are often shopping for groups of people, as is their gendered responsibility much of the time, individual limits are much more inconvenient to them than to single young people or to profiteers.

[Montmorency]

HUMOR BREAK:

Now, there's a lot of people making this reference, but the US government response is shockingly similar to the of the mayor in Jaws.

In that vein too (https://twitter.com/davelozo/status/1238092240712499202):


In global disaster movies, there’s always a scientist who’s like, WE HAVE TO ACT NOW OR PEOPLE WILL DIE and some government guy who’s like, YOU’RE BLOWING THIS OUT OF PROPORTION and I’m like, NO ONE WOULD REACT TO INFO LIKE THAT IN REAL LIFE.

My apologies to those movies.

SARS 2 conclusively disproves those naysayers who argue that world governments would easily and rapidly neutralize any zombie plague.


How New Yorkers deal with coronavirus...
https://twitter.com/AMAZINACE/status/1238930441119379458

How Norway deals with coronavirus...

https://i.imgur.com/zVB6kf3.jpg

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

UK moving to a "war footing" regarding manufacturing: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896168

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Rory, I know about soap. I've experience with clean rooms and sterilization of equipment as part of my work. Regular people dont know this stuff though, they think the only thing that can kill germs and viruses are in the pharmacy section. I am sure you can still pick up soap and aftershave right now.

As far as enforcement, it's as simple as the store saying "sorry sir, only two per person" and having a single town cop at the front of the store. Am I under thinking this?

ACIN, the chemists and supermarkets here are running out of soap, and rubbing alcohol.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Toilet paper is a low-margin high-bulk item, so when it goes it goes quickly in a JIT age with minimum backroom storage. Just throwing that out there. It gets restocked quick, but people shopping and seeing empty lots or shelves don't perceive that.

Stores, at least large chains in America, have already begun implementing customer limits on items such as wipes and disinfectants. This actually hurts another demographic you may not have considered: women and their families. Since women are often shopping for groups of people, as is their gendered responsibility much of the time, individual limits are much more inconvenient to them than to single young people or to profiteers.

It's too little to late at this point though for the limits. I'm more amenable to that argument about no limits, regarding mothers shopping for groups, I didn't consider that specific end case.

[a completely inoffensive name]

ACIN, the chemists and supermarkets here are running out of soap, and rubbing alcohol.

Rubbing alcohol has been gone for a while in my town. Two days ago I went to Target and still found bottles of liquid soap, so maybe UK citizens are smarter about hygiene?

[Pannonian]

Rubbing alcohol has been gone for a while in my town. Two days ago I went to Target and still found bottles of liquid soap, so maybe UK citizens are smarter about hygiene?

Is Dettol or similar antiseptics less effective than rubbing alcohol?

[a completely inoffensive name]

Is Dettol or similar antiseptics less effective than rubbing alcohol?

I have never heard of Dettol, so I can't speak to this. Whatever type of chemical it is, Monty and others have shown there are some studies you might be able to find regarding a chemical's effectiveness at reducing viral load for a specific time duration.

But to my knowledge, and I might be wrong but the main advice from the experts is first and foremost don't touch your face and wash your hands with soap frequently. Disinfecting every surface you interact with is less practical.

[Montmorency]

Finally, NYC schools closed for the next month.

(Amusingly, at the beginning of this month the citywide plastic bag ban went into effect.)

[Gilrandir]

Question. Will it be hysteria if this virus finds its' way into the Ukraine at levels that other areas of the world are experiencing?

People say that we are experiencing the same level of infection, only the authorities don't admit it. Which is one more reason to get hysteric.




Is your problem with this thread, government responses around the world, media responses, or what? We're just here to shoot the shit with some online folk.


As a response:


The UK has no thermometers, won't have any for two weeks.


UK moving to a "war footing" regarding manufacturing: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51896168


ACIN, the chemists and supermarkets here are running out of soap, and rubbing alcohol.

Just shit shooting which has no relation whatever to panic-mongering.




There was significantly more panic in 2014-15, which I gathered from reading, uh, your posts here, reading the news, and thirdhand from relatives in Ukraine (I think some of them live near Dnepr). The foreign policy situation is now stabler, as opposed to the developing pandemic.


Foreign policy pursued by Zelensky is fraught with outbursts of patriotic population, so no stability. This time due to Ukrainian authorities, not Russia, thought.





Although to be pedantic there was a mandatory evacuation of school-age children in May, out to at least Kyiv. Right? You're young enough to have potentially been affected.


As far I as remember children finished their school at he end of May and then parents were free to send them away if they liked. I mean in Kyiv. Elsewhere I'm confident that it was this way. No evacuation - it could give rise to total panic which was already starting to spread.

[Crandar]

How Norway deals with coronavirus...
Because of the Trondheim University's "instruction" I prematurely lost contact with my Norwegian girlfriend and Erasmus student. And now it has gone viral. Thanks, Anne Borg. Anyway, the comment about defective healthcare infrastructure seems to have been redacted (https://www.ntnu.edu/corona/students-abroad) by now. If I remember correctly, the original announcement (and not the Facebook summary) specified that the issue with the United States was also the lack of public transport, which rendered airports not very easily accessible. That, to be honest, looks even more embarrassing.

[Gilrandir]

Yes, theoretically if you implement the most effective and draconian containment regime in history and physically obstruct every possible disease vector then there is no pandemic.


Thousands of deaths, hundreds of thousands of infected, people confined to their dwellings, tourism industry at a full stop, stock exchange market dropping, oil prices plummetting, Putin prolonging his tenure till 2036, student athletes turned into students, media corporations devastated, floor in Ukrainian post offices washed with хлорка, Brithish stocks of thermometers and soap running historically low since 1914 (and just slightly above 1066) with no chance to replenish them because the UK has Brexited and Megan is in Canada, and on top of it all Trump taking a COVID test (and everybody made sure his ravings are hard-coded and not caused by some bug virus) VS preventing people to leave China? Hmmm... Seems a tough choice....

[Beskar]

In a large supermarket, there might be 20 or more checkout lanes. What happens if the cop is busy on isle one and isle 14 has an issue? And if this is the USA, let's pretend in both cases the person is white so you can't just shoot one of them. And one cop per store would mean that there's a massive reduction in police elsewhere. The UK certainly doesn't really have spare capacity in this, and I'd rather they were at least pretending to try to solve crimes.
Really?! :laugh4: :laugh4:

[Shaka_Khan]

Conservative politicians have been relentless in criticizing Moon for not imposing a blanket travel-ban on Chinese visitors, a decision which would have had devastating impacts for a country so reliant on Chinese commerce.
Yes, many Koreans are aware of the economic importance of China. In fact, it was during the two previous conservative South Korean administrations that South Korea's trade and outsourcing with China grew the most. It was during the previous conservative administration when South Korea had one of the strongest passports in the world, even stronger than the United States'. But we're talking about a pandemic here. More than a hundred countries are now either banning or quarantining the entry of South Korean citizens. The countries banning the entry of the Korean citizens include most of the European countries. Many countries are banning the entry of Chinese citizens also.

[Viking]

Not only has Norway, like many European countries, closed its external borders, but an increasing amount of Norwegian municipalities are now closing their municipality borders and requiring people who have recently traveled to other municipalities to self-quarantine. It's closed borders all the way down.

Then there are all the idiosyncratic rules individual municipalities have the legal opportunity to declare now because of the virus. This includes restrictions on everything from candy dispensers in stores to public transport; whatever topic crosses the mind of the local municipality administration.

It's like a return to the kingdoms of old, or the virus is just a federalist one.

[Beskar]

The End times are here. Not allowed to go anywhere, everything is closing down, the world is being brought to a stand-still.

[a completely inoffensive name]

The End times are here. Not allowed to go anywhere, everything is closing down, the world is being brought to a stand-still.

Funny how it always seems like business as usual until it suddenly isn't?

[edyzmedieval]

I don't know how we're supposed to function well with 1 months of quarantine / isolation, possibly even 2 months or more. Horrendous.

[Pannonian]

Crime is up, as seen in this case of burglary (https://streamable.com/ieusc).

[Beskar]

Funny how it always seems like business as usual until it suddenly isn't?

The world is weird at the moment. It is like a slow semi-apocalypse currently led by fear.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The End times are here. Not allowed to go anywhere, everything is closing down, the world is being brought to a stand-still.

I feel physically sick, everything grinding to a halt is much scarier than getting the disease.