Coronavirus / COVID-19

[Hooahguy]

There seem to be conflicting reports on how Trump is doing. His doctors said that he is doing fine, but then another source (https://twitter.com/EamonJavers/status/1312426885461217283?s=20) said right after that “the president’s vitals over the last 24 hours were very concerning and the next 48 hours will be critical in terms of his care. We’re still not on a clear path to a full recovery.”

I don't know what to believe, guess we will find out soon enough.

Edit (https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1312436585007251457): "AP source: President Trump was administered supplemental oxygen at the White House on Friday before going to hospital."

I wager that we aren't being told the full truth.

Original source might (https://twitter.com/Olivianuzzi/status/1312429131079057409?s=20) be Mark Meadows, WH Chief of Staff.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I wager that we aren't being told the full truth.

Considering who you're talking about, is that any surprise? The truth will come out (sort of) if he recovers, or if he dies. Even if he dies, the GOP will probably just hire Alec Baldwin....:quiet:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

It was interesting to see him NOT colored like an Oompah-Loompah for a change.

[Hooahguy]

Trump is being released from the hospital today, but I don't think he is out of the woods yet. Not by a long shot.

A reminder of the Herman Cain (GOP candidate from 2012) timeline:

6/24: Attends Trump rally
7/2: Tests positive for Covid-19
7/10: Says he’s improving
7/15: Says his doctors seem happy
7/27: Says he’s really getting better
7/30: Dies

[Montmorency]

Incipient New York surge :thinking:



Trump is being released from the hospital today, but I don't think he is out of the woods yet. Not by a long shot.

A reminder of the Herman Cain (GOP candidate from 2012) timeline:

6/24: Attends Trump rally
7/2: Tests positive for Covid-19
7/10: Says he’s improving
7/15: Says his doctors seem happy
7/27: Says he’s really getting better
7/30: Dies

Sir your are mistaken.

https://i.imgur.com/Zn64eOa.png

[ReluctantSamurai]

Wanna guess how Fearless Leader would've reacted had it been Biden who contracted COVID-19? Flashback:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6a-rdtvuoM

[Hooahguy]

Sir your are mistaken.

Ah yes, the ghost tweeting, definitely one of the oddest things about the whole affair. Also the fact that Cain seems to have been completely forgotten by his former party.

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJeGzkht-TI

[ReluctantSamurai]

@Monty

I guess the "kids" haven't learned much since the pissing contest of this past spring:

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/10/05/as-covid-surges-in-nyc-so-does-conflict-between-de-blasio-and-cuomo-1321450


“These public disagreements between the governor and the mayor are not helpful,” said Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the Pandemic Resource and Response Initiative at Columbia and once an informal adviser to the mayor. “To have the mayor overridden by the governor of New York State, it is not acceptable. If he’s got a difference with the mayor, call him up, come to a conclusion, yell at him. This should not be in the public forum.”

:rolleyes:

[ReluctantSamurai]

These people are so fucking stupid:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/06/trump-lawyer-rudy-giuliani-masks-coronavirus-fox-news

The man is coughing constantly during the interview. Could be COVID, could just be a cough. But the other member of Trump's debate prep team, Chris Christie, has already tested positive, yet Giuliani continues his abject denialism. Moron.

And the hits just keep on coming:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/06/us-military-chiefs-coronavirus-quarantine-mark-milley-trump

The White House outbreak now has more cases than Vietnam, Taiwan, and New Zealand.......combined.

:no:

[Montmorency]

Fresh NYC shutdowns (https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/new-nyc-shutdowns-begin-as-daily-covid-cases-see-month-long-highs-quarantine-list-due-for-update/2653687/) to begin this week, by intensity of cluster (along zip code lines).

Truthfully there's been a marginal rise in cases in all areas of the state, with the cumulative effect of putting us at 1000+ official cases for almost all of the past 10 days.

I repeat, NY had gone without registering more than a thousand cases on a single day for close to 4 months.


https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/10/05/as-covid-surges-in-nyc-so-does-conflict-between-de-blasio-and-cuomo-1321450


De Blasio warned New Yorkers to prepare for a shelter in place order on Tuesday, March 17, but was immediately shot down by Cuomo. Then the governor turned around and enacted, essentially, the policy de Blasio espoused, though not until the following Sunday evening — a delay that researchers say likely cost many lives.

At the beginning of April, de Blasio advised New Yorkers to wear face coverings when out in public. The next day, Cuomo and his health commissioner questioned the effectiveness of the measure. Almost two weeks later, Cuomo issued an order making masks mandatory across the state.

And when de Blasio announced that city schools would stay closed for the rest of the academic year that ended in June, Cuomo insisted that was only the mayor’s “opinion” and no decision had been made. Ultimately, schools statewide remained closed.

All of this and more was discussed in April exposes, some of which were linked here, but it's good to have a reminder. Cuomo/de Blasio, like Newsom and some other governors. should be credited for strong and steady policies over the duration of the emergency, but gosh did they make a lot of petty and short-sighted decisions to our detriment. Cuomo sufficiently influenced the media narrative - to say nothing of his entrenched patrimonial network in state politics - to sustain his position in future elections if he wants to; De Blasio was already disdained across the board before the pandemic and I don't see how he survives next year's primaries.


The White House outbreak now has more cases than Vietnam, Taiwan, and New Zealand.......combined.:no:

I want to make a joke about Chinese territorial heritage here.


Giuliani... Moron.

Yes.

[Hooahguy]

Just when you thought things couldn't get any dumber (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/09/trump-launches-his-post-coronavirus-recovery-tour-428419):


President Donald Trump on Saturday will address hundreds of supporters on the South Lawn of the White House before traveling to Florida on Monday for a rally, marking his return to public events after being hobbled by the coronavirus.

Guests for Saturday’s event won’t be tested for the virus and won’t be required to wear masks, setting off fresh concerns that the White House itself has become a vector for the disease. Earlier Friday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government's top infectious disease expert, decried a previous gathering at the White House to celebrate Trump’s Supreme Court nominee as a “superspreader event.”

[...]

His speech is being billed as “Remarks to Peaceful Protesters for Law & Order,” according to an invitation. He’ll address the crowd from the Truman Balcony off of the Blue Room, a large state room on the main floor of the White House. More than two thousand guests have been invited, according to a person familiar with the event.

And he is going to a rally in Florida on Monday. All I can think of is what Herman Cain went through. I give him two, maybe three weeks before he is hospitalized again.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Acts of complete desperation. His campaign is getting trounced in available money to spend on ads, all of his recent antics have served only to drive more women and suburbanites over to Biden, closing down broad COVID negotiations and pushing to just bail out the airline industry (AGAIN) isn't going to win over small business people, and as you've stated...he actually believes he's superman. SARS-2 will likely put him in the hospital again, drugs notwithstanding.

If he had any hope of winning here in MI, he did his chances serious damage with his and his lap dog Jason Miller's comments about Gretchen Whitmer. Despite all the BS this spring in Lansing, she is still very popular. Right-wingers here may be quite loud, but they are a small minority.

[Hooahguy]

I cant remember where I saw this but apparently he has also increased ad spending in the DC area.

The DC area.

The renowned electoral toss-up that is the DC area.


I just hope he doesnt get more people sick. The number of cases in DC has skyrocketed over the past week. At the end of September we had only 26 new cases but now cases are trending back up.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Has Boris blown it?

https://www.vox.com/2020/10/10/21508165/covid-19-uk-cases-news


After a relatively quiet summer, the United Kingdom is now suffering a new onslaught of Covid-19. Where the seven-day rolling average for much of the summer was regularly below 1,000 cases a day, it began increasing in September, and by October 5, the new average had reached 15,505. The counts are complicated by test shortages and changes in the way cases are counted, but it’s clear the country is going through a serious second wave.

On July 4, with the daily new case count down to 403, Johnson reopened English pubs and restaurants with no face coverings needed, but with more hand-washing and ventilation required, and a limit of two households allowed to dine together. On July 15, to the delight of millions of Brits, Johnson took things a step further with a plan to pay people to eat out.

The public health community reacted to the plan with horror. “In a word, it’s nuts,” says Lawrence Gostin, director of the WHO Center on National and Global Health Law, professor of global health law at Georgetown University, and a research fellow at Oxford University. “In the midst of a pandemic, it’s actually directly opposite to what the public health evidence suggests.”

There are no currently published medical studies definitively linking the rise in UK cases beginning in early September to the increased visits to restaurants throughout August. But it’s hard to think otherwise.

Toby Phillips, head of research and policy at Oxford University’s Pathways for Prosperity Commission, looked at how many more people dined out and how many more cases there have been, and concluded that the increased number of cases in early September “is consistent with” the restaurant program.

“Looking at the English regions, there is a loose correlation between uptake of the scheme and new cases in the last weeks of August,” Phillips wrote in the Conversation. “Again, this isn’t to say that the scheme caused those cases. But it certainly didn’t discourage those people from going out.”

Even Johnson himself recently acknowledged that his plan might have played a role in fueling the new wave of cases across the country. At the same time, he took responsibility “for everything that has happened since the pandemic began.”

Many blame the uneven reaction to the new coronavirus — and many of the UK’s more-than 42,500 Covid-19 deaths — on Johnson’s hot-again, cold-again belief in the seriousness of the pandemic, his interest in helping out businesses, and a system that gives him unquestioned power to guide the government response.

“You can have the best health system in the world,” Gostin says. “You can have the most expert scientists in the world as the UK has. But if you don’t have a leader that can effectively implement good policy and effectively communicate the importance of risk avoidance behaviors, you’re finished.”

[ReluctantSamurai]

Interesting read on individual states response here in the US:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/14/best-state-responses-to-pandemic-429376

Vermont, Washington, Michigan, Colorado, and Rhode Island get high marks from a wide range of health researchers, public officials and academic experts. Other states got good grades in several specific areas.

As a sidenote, Michigan got high marks in reducing the impact of COVID-19 on black people. After a stuttering start, Gov Whitmer organized the state's COVID-19 response and directed it throughout. It's generally acknowledged that her response saved thousands of lives, and despite that idiocy in April from a right-wing militia group (two brothers photographed on the capital steps at that time are two of the 13 indicted in her kidnapping plot), most people here realize that. Trump and other White House officials did themselves no favors here with the voting population by attacking her and continuing to claim she's done a poor job. Bye-bye CoviDon....not this year~:wave:

[Montmorency]

The US is on the upturn of a third wave. New York and New England's suppression of the virus that lasted through the summer is in peril.

https://i.imgur.com/SSf4gpr.png

France and Spain have recorded the majority of their cumulative caseload since around the beginning of September.

Much of the rest of Europe, including Russia, is recording their highest daily case counts yet. Iceland too, which just now recorded its first COVID death since April.

As far as I can find, only the Czechian Republic (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-10-12/czech-government-closing-bars-shifting-schools-to-distance-learning-amid-covid-19-surge) - one of the many European countries only now experiencing a rampant virus - has decided to deprioritize in-person schooling so far.

israel has completed nearly one month of its lockdown, the strictest second national lockdown in the world apparently, and will lower restrictions soon. (Red transverse line denotes start of partial lockdown, a week before the full one was implemented).

https://i.imgur.com/qMj4oBC.png

Singapore and Australia seem to know how to control the virus.

https://i.imgur.com/jE9JXsP.png
https://i.imgur.com/BDQSSVH.png

South Korea's probably still the best medium-sized country on this.

https://i.imgur.com/qu3sgko.png


The March relief aid and central bank intervention reduced American poverty in April (and raised personal income) during perhaps the sharpest economic downturn in all of history. Since the spring, millions have gone into poverty as the aid was not renewed. BIG GOVERNMENT ROCKS
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/15/us/politics/federal-aid-poverty-levels.html


I didn't hear this before, but apparently during his town hall earlier this week Trump offered the preposterous lie that 85% of people who wear masks catch COVID. :dizzy2:

Samurai, did you ever form an opinion on Abdul El-Sayed (https://abdulelsayed.com/policy)?


OT: Hooah, you'll be pleased to hear that so far the MSM have given Giuliani's Hunter Biden story a derisory sniff. It was so obviously fake news that apparently even the NYPost's (a tabloid grown only more notorious since Rupert Murdoch acquired it) newsroom rebelled at having to produce it. Get ready to hear about "but his emails" from the RWNJ mediasphere for the next 4 years, in the downtime between fresher stories.

[edyzmedieval]

Romania's struggling with COVID right now in a significant way, we have around 4000 new infections per day. This second wave is massive and they will re-impose lockdowns in some places over here.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Perhaps everyone should be paying more attention to this number:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/


By now many people have heard about R0—the basic reproductive number of a pathogen, a measure of its contagiousness on average. But unless you’ve been reading scientific journals, you’re less likely to have encountered k, the measure of its dispersion. The definition of k is a mouthful, but it’s simply a way of asking whether a virus spreads in a steady manner or in big bursts, whereby one person infects many, all at once. After nine months of collecting epidemiological data, we know that this is an over dispersed pathogen, meaning that it tends to spread in clusters, but this knowledge has not yet fully entered our way of thinking about the pandemic—or our preventive practices.

There are COVID-19 incidents in which a single person likely infected 80 percent or more of the people in the room in just a few hours. But, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious. Over dispersion and super-spreading of this virus are found in research across the globe. A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person. A recent paper found that in Hong Kong, which had extensive testing and contact tracing, about 19 percent of cases were responsible for 80 percent of transmission, while 69 percent of cases did not infect another person. This finding is not rare: Multiple studies from the beginning have suggested that as few as 10 to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission, and that many people barely transmit it.

This kind of behavior, alternating between being super infectious and fairly noninfectious, is exactly what k captures, and what focusing solely on R hides. Samuel Scarpino, an assistant professor of epidemiology and complex systems at Northeastern, told me that this has been a huge challenge, especially for health authorities in Western societies, where the pandemic playbook was geared toward the flu—and not without reason, because pandemic flu is a genuine threat. However, influenza does not have the same level of clustering behavior.

We can think of disease patterns as leaning deterministic or stochastic: In the former, an outbreak’s distribution is more linear and predictable; in the latter, randomness plays a much larger role and predictions are hard, if not impossible, to make. In deterministic trajectories, we expect what happened yesterday to give us a good sense of what to expect tomorrow. Stochastic phenomena, however, don’t operate like that—the same inputs don’t always produce the same outputs, and things can tip over quickly from one state to the other. As Scarpino told me, “Diseases like the flu are pretty nearly deterministic and R0 (while flawed) paints about the right picture (nearly impossible to stop until there’s a vaccine).” That’s not necessarily the case with super-spreading diseases.

Hitoshi Oshitani, a member of the National COVID-19 Cluster Taskforce at Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and a professor at Tohoku University who told me that Japan focused on the overdispersion impact from early on, likens his country’s approach to looking at a forest and trying to find the clusters, not the trees. Meanwhile, he believes, the Western world was getting distracted by the trees, and got lost among them. To fight a super-spreading disease effectively, policy makers need to figure out why super-spreading happens, and they need to understand how it affects everything, including our contact-tracing methods and our testing regimes.

[...]we don’t need to know all the sufficient factors that go into a super-spreading event to avoid what seems to be a necessary condition most of the time: many people, especially in a poorly ventilated indoor setting, and especially not wearing masks. As Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida, told me, given the huge numbers associated with these clusters, targeting them would be very effective in getting our transmission numbers down.

Over dispersion should also inform our contact-tracing efforts. In fact, we may need to turn them upside down. Right now, many states and nations engage in what is called forward or prospective contact tracing. Once an infected person is identified, we try to find out with whom they interacted afterward so that we can warn, test, isolate, and quarantine these potential exposures. But that’s not the only way to trace contacts. And, because of over dispersion, it’s not necessarily where the most bang for the buck lies. Instead, in many cases, we should try to work backwards to see who first infected the subject.

As Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist and the author of the book The Rules of Contagion, explained to me, if we can use retrospective contact tracing to find the person who infected our patient, and then trace the forward contacts of the infecting person, we are generally going to find a lot more cases compared with forward-tracing contacts of the infected patient, which will merely identify potential exposures, many of which will not happen anyway, because most transmission chains die out on their own. Indeed, as Kucharski and his co-authors show mathematically, overdispersion means that “forward tracing alone can, on average, identify at most the mean number of secondary infections (i.e. R)”; in contrast, “backward tracing increases this maximum number of traceable individuals by a factor of 2-3, as index cases are more likely to come from clusters than a case is to generate a cluster.”

Another significant consequence of overdispersion is that it highlights the importance of certain kinds of rapid, cheap tests. Consider the current dominant model of test and trace. In many places, health authorities try to trace and find forward contacts of an infected person: everyone they were in touch with since getting infected. They then try to test all of them with expensive, slow, but highly accurate PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests. But that’s not necessarily the best way when clusters are so important in spreading the disease.

Once a country has too many outbreaks, it’s almost as if the pandemic switches into “flu mode,” as Scarpino put it, meaning high, sustained levels of community spread even though a majority of infected people may not be transmitting onward. Scarpino explained that barring truly drastic measures, once in that widespread and elevated mode, COVID-19 can keep spreading because of the sheer number of chains already out there. Plus, the overwhelming numbers may eventually spark more clusters, further worsening the situation.

As Kucharski put it, a relatively quiet period can hide how quickly things can tip over into large outbreaks and how a few chained amplification events can rapidly turn a seemingly under-control situation into a disaster. We’re often told that if Rt, the real-time measure of the average spread, is above one, the pandemic is growing, and that below one, it’s dying out. That may be true for an epidemic that is not overdispersed, and while an Rt below one is certainly good, it’s misleading to take too much comfort from a low Rt when just a few events can reignite massive numbers.

Perhaps one of the most interesting cases has been Japan, a country with middling luck that got hit early on and followed what appeared to be an unconventional model, not deploying mass testing and never fully shutting down. By the end of March, influential economists were publishing reports with dire warnings, predicting overloads in the hospital system and huge spikes in deaths. The predicted catastrophe never came to be, however, and although the country faced some future waves, there was never a large spike in deaths despite its aging population, uninterrupted use of mass transportation, dense cities, and lack of a formal lockdown.

Oshitani told me that in Japan, they had noticed the overdispersion characteristics of COVID-19 as early as February, and thus created a strategy focusing mostly on cluster-busting, which tries to prevent one cluster from igniting another. Oshitani said he believes that “the chain of transmission cannot be sustained without a chain of clusters or a megacluster.” Japan thus carried out a cluster-busting approach, including undertaking aggressive backward tracing to uncover clusters. Japan also focused on ventilation, counseling its population to avoid places where the three C’s come together—crowds in closed spaces in close contact, especially if there’s talking or singing—bringing together the science of overdispersion with the recognition of airborne aerosol transmission, as well as presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission.

Could we get back to a much more normal life by focusing on limiting the conditions for super-spreading events, aggressively engaging in cluster-busting, and deploying cheap, rapid mass tests—that is, once we get our case numbers down to low enough numbers to carry out such a strategy? (Many places with low community transmission could start immediately.) Once we look for and see the forest, it becomes easier to find our way out.

In looking at the huge surges happening around the world at this moment, it might be worth considering a look at Japan's strategy of "cluster-busting". While just about every country in the world is seeing big upticks in cases, Japan's rolling average for the last seven days has been going down.

A look at what Japan is doing:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/japan?country=~JPN


Samurai, did you ever form an opinion on Abdul El-Sayed?

Dunno if he'd make for a good governor, but he might make a good local taskforce head on fighting the pandemic...:shrug:

[ReluctantSamurai]

The end result of having a president who simply doesn't give a rats' ass anymore, and a staff that has now fully endorsed "herd immunity":

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/us/coronavirus-transmission-everywhere.html?smid=tw-nythealth&smtyp=cur


Gone are the days when Americans could easily understand the virus by tracking rising case numbers back to discrete sources — the crowded factory, the troubled nursing home, the rowdy bar. Now, there are so many cases, in so many places, that many people are coming to a frightening conclusion: They have no idea where the virus is spreading.

But as cases skyrocket again in many states, many health officials have conceded that interviewing patients and dutifully calling each contact will not be enough to slow the outbreak. “Contact tracing is not going to save us,” said Dr. Ogechika Alozie, chief medical officer at Del Sol Medical Center in El Paso, where hospitalizations in the county have soared by more than 400 percent and officials issued a new order for residents to stay at home.


The problem, of course, is that failing to fully track the virus makes it much harder to get a sense of where the virus is flourishing, and how to get ahead of new outbreaks. But once an area spins out of control, trying to trace back each chain of transmission can feel like scooping cupfuls of water from a flood.


In some places, overwhelmed health officials have abandoned any pretense of keeping up.

“You can swing a cat and hit someone who has got it”

[ReluctantSamurai]

I know US elections are front and center, at the moment, but I'm going to repeat something I said earlier---by the spring, the US will be approaching the devastation levels of the 1918 pandemic. If we all thought that CoviDon had wreaked havoc on the US all throughout the current pandemic, he's taken it to a new low in claiming that the virus can't be stopped. States with mostly Republican governors have taken up CoviDon's deadly mantra, and are now willing to adopt the "herd immunity" strategy and just let the virus do as it wants:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/coronavirus-control.html


The congregation of Candlelight Christian Fellowship gathered around tables in the church sanctuary one night last week to sip coffee and grapple with theological questions. From down the hall came the laughter of dozens of children at play.With a potluck dinner, no masks and plenty of shared hugs, the night felt like a throwback to the pre-pandemic era except for a noticeable exception on the stage: The lead pastor, Paul Van Noy, was addressing the congregation with the aid of supplemental oxygen, piped into his nostrils from a small tank.

“I think we just open up and we just let it take its course,” said Nancy Hillberg, 68, as church members mingled after the service. “Just let it be done.”

Just let it be done??



Governors around the country, particularly Republican ones, are following the president’s lead in resisting new restrictions against a virus that has powerfully persisted despite lockdowns in some areas over the spring and summer.
Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota wrote that “there is no way to stop the virus (https://rapidcityjournal.com/opinion/gov-noem-update-on-south-dakota-s-covid-19-response/article_586e2456-23c0-5ba0-bb06-5fc78d084593.html),” while Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota said that when it comes to saving lives, “it’s not a job for government (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cazTEk3RWOI), this is a job for everybody.” In Tennessee, Gov. Bill Lee told residents that “at the end of the day, personal responsibility is the only way (https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-tennessee-53b46984415489977df2e14facc7dc7f).” Gov. Mike Dunleavy of Alaska said in an interview that rising case numbers this fall should not cause people to go into hiding.

“It’s like being told you’re going to get hit with a meteorite,” Mr. Dunleavy said. “There comes a point where people just say, ‘I still have to live. I still have to work. I still have to have contact with my family.’”


In Boise, an outbreak at the Idaho State Veterans Home has resulted in 26 active cases and two recent deaths among residents, along with 16 employees who have tested positive.
Gov. Brad Little has restored restrictions on large gatherings but has faced blowback from some fellow Republicans and resisted a mask mandate. Last week, Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin joined with a group of lawmakers in posting a video calling for an end to all state and local emergency orders, vowing to ignore them in the future. In the video, Ms. McGeachin laid a gun on a Bible.

“The fact that a pandemic may or may not be occurring changes nothing about the meaning or intent of the State Constitution in the preservation of our inalienable rights,” the political leaders said in the video and accompanying letter.

May or may not be occurring...

Yep....conspiracies, guns and religion---great combo:no:


“I’m not convinced that all of our efforts have had a great impact on the spread or lack thereof,” Mr. Van Noy said. “I do think that we’ve done a lot of harm to our economy, to the psyche of personages. I mean, we see depression. We see all kinds of issues that are developing because people have a sense of hopelessness.”

And there you have it...money before health---of course ignoring the fact that the longer it takes to get this pandemic under control, the longer the economy suffers.

The number of US military deaths in WW2: 407,316. The number of US military deaths in WW1: 116,516. We will exceed the the number of military deaths in WW2 by spring (assuming 1k/day), and we will exceed the combined number of deaths for both wars by summer.

It's this kind of fucked up mentality that's prompting me to find another country to live in (regardless of the presidential outcome). I have no desire to expend energy resisting this sort of crap in the time I have remaining.


:fishing:

[Beskar]

Wouldn't Republicans disproportionately* be affected by Covid-19, therefore making this the hill to die on?

(*ie: statically older generation, not taking measures such as wearing masks or social distancing.)

[ReluctantSamurai]

Wouldn't Republicans disproportionately* be affected by Covid-19, therefore making this the hill to die on?

A majority of Republicans don't care about COVID-19. You see it at CoviDon's rallies...thousands of people gathering, few wear masks. New study shows that from June to September, Trump rallies led to about 30,000 cases and about 700 deaths:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/us/politics/stanford-study-infections-trump-rallies.html

That number is likely far higher if October is factored in with the sky rocketing case loads in the very states where these rallies were held that month. The only conclusion I can draw is that those folks simply don't give a shit...:shrug:

[Montmorency]

A majority of Republicans don't care about COVID-19. You see it at CoviDon's rallies...thousands of people gathering, few wear masks. New study shows that from June to September, Trump rallies led to about 30,000 cases and about 700 deaths:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/us/politics/stanford-study-infections-trump-rallies.html

That number is likely far higher if October is factored in with the sky rocketing case loads in the very states where these rallies were held that month. The only conclusion I can draw is that those folks simply don't give a shit...:shrug:

https://twitter.com/ParkerMolloy/status/1323970380403531783


This was an interesting finding: the majority of Trump supporters who favor mask mandates and lockdowns... think Trump also supports those things. If there’s been one loud message from him these past several months, it’s that he vehemently opposes both of those things.

For your attention. It's a different universe.


“It’s like being (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/coronavirus-control.html) told you’re going to get hit with a meteorite,” Mr. Dunleavy said. “There comes a point where people just say, ‘I still have to live. I still have to work. I still have to have contact with my family.’”


If you're going to be hit by a meteor, you don't have to live or work. Collective death is imminent! Traditionally in this scenario one indulges in their private version of unrestrained hedonism: 'What are you going to do with your last 24 hours?'

Or maybe that accounts for the entire Republican philosophy.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Wouldn't Republicans disproportionately* be affected by Covid-19, therefore making this the hill to die on?

(*ie: statically older generation, not taking measures such as wearing masks or social distancing.)

Correct on the statistics. However, the Trump cadre is enamored of "toughness" and completely convinced that they are such. So, they might get sick, but it is not a big threat. FIDO.

ALL of Trump's successes are a testament to his belief in willpower. His folks implicitly believe that willpower will beat the virus.

Go figure.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Something to keep an eye on:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/07/europe/mink-covid-19-denmark-update-intl/index.html


Denmark announced it would cull its entire mink population after it discovered evidence that the disease that causes novel coronavirus had mutated in mink, after being passed on by humans. The new variant was also found to have spread to humans, with 214 confirmed infections as of Friday.

Statens Serum Institut, the Danish authority based in Copenhagen which deals with infectious diseases, had found five cases of the virus in mink farms and 12 examples in humans that showed reduced sensitivity to antibodies, she said. Allowing the virus to spread could potentially limit the effectiveness of future vaccines.

Ouch. Euthanizing the entire mink population:stunned: Will be interesting to see how other countries with mink farms respond....

[Hooahguy]

Good news (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54873105) on the vaccine front:


The first effective coronavirus vaccine can prevent more than 90% of people from getting Covid-19, a preliminary analysis shows.

The developers - Pfizer and BioNTech - described it as a "great day for science and humanity".

Their vaccine has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries and no safety concerns have been raised.

The companies plan to apply for emergency approval to use the vaccine by the end of the month.

There are still huge challenges ahead, but the announcement has been warmly welcomed with scientists describing themselves smiling "ear to ear" and some suggesting life could be back to normal by spring.

"I am probably the first guy to say that, but I will say that with some confidence," said Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University.

[Montmorency]

Cluster-busting?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/08/nyc-covid-targeted-lockdowns/


New York officials have embraced a new strategy to quash coronavirus spikes — shutting down schools and businesses with almost surgical precision, using block-by-block infection data while also boosting testing and contact tracing in those communities.

Follow the latest on Election 2020
The idea is to stamp out virus sparks quickly, before adjacent areas catch flame, while avoiding the devastation of citywide lockdowns.

The unique effort, supported by a massive state and city testing apparatus, has been largely successful so far, earning the admiration of epidemiologists. But neither state nor city officials are taking a victory lap as they watch cases surge to their highest-ever levels in sister cities throughout the United States and Europe — and with painful memories of the spring outbreak when virus deaths exceeded 700 per day.

“We’re all heartened at the fact that this is working,” said Jackie Bray, deputy executive director of NYC Test & Trace Corps, an initiative the city launched in June that employs 4,000 tracers with a budget of about $1 billion in city and federal funds. “We’re clear-eyed at how hard this is going to be to sustain through the fall and the winter.”

The map is built from the results of the nearly a million coronavirus tests New York has conducted per week, or about 0.6 percent of the state population daily, as of late October. The home address of every person with a positive test result is funneled into a health department database. Such data determines whether areas are designated red, orange or yellow zones.

“We identify the micro-cluster, that’s called a red zone. We then put a buffer around it, that’s called an orange zone, we then put a buffer around the orange zone which is a yellow zone,” New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) said at a news conference on Oct. 21, likening the spread of the virus to ripples created by a pebble dropped in a pond. “These areas are so small that people walk to a store, people walk to a restaurant and you see the viral expansion will be a series of concentric circles.”

lol at the lead photo

I'm impressed at the sheer rapidity of scaling in testing, though we should have been here 3 or 4 months ago. Multiple states testing over 100K daily. New York alone testing more than all (or almost all) countries.

And, of course, caught up with California once more.

Pretty cool that South Dakota has had a 50% positivity ratio so far this month.


https://i.imgur.com/VF5y04y.png

[ReluctantSamurai]

Cluster-busting?

It seems to work as both Japan and S. Korea largely employ the method:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/japan?country=~JPN

Bi-Weekly cases/1M: Canada 1329...Germany 2882...Japan 95...S.Korea 32...UK 4658...US 4466

14 Day Change: Canada +39%...Germany +86%...Japan +51%...S.Korea +32%...UK +12%...US +60%

Positivity Rate: Canada 6.6%...Germany 6.6%...Japan 3.4%...S.Korea 1.1%...UK 8.3%...US 8.3%

Daily Confirmed Deaths (month-over-month): Canada +60...Germany +260...Japan +6...S.Korea -2...UK +518...US...+458

The data can be manipulated in many different ways, sometimes a bit confusing, but this site has become my #1 go-to for pandemic info...:shrug:

[Montmorency]

Europe is now deep into its second continent-wide lockdown - any thoughts? We've all pretty much given up here in America.

Almost all European countries have evinced serious flaws in their responses over time, but at least they demonstrate some flexibility and willingness to learn. Sweden still resists however. Their big intervention now is to... place restrictions on the sale of alcohol at night, a measure so obscure in logic I can't interpret it as anything other than theater (to be fair, Gov. Cuomo in New York promulgated much the same policy last month, but it was alongside more concrete data-driven interventions).

I understand there is a curve for governments working with obscenely-conservative and technically non-proficient public health administration (Quentin-Tarantino-looking schmuck), but at some point the actual executive has to assume liability.
https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/13/sweden-introduces-tighter-restrictions-to-halt-surging-coronavirus-cases
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/it-s-been-so-so-surreal-critics-sweden-s-lax-pandemic-policies-face-fierce-backlash
https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

It seems, despite Tegnell's denials, mass infection was always their public health strategy.


However, for now, authorities are not considering recommending Swedes wear face masks, according to Euronews reporter Per Bergfors Nyberg.

He says Swedish health officials believe making masks mandatory will give people a "false sense of security" and could make matters worse.

Jesus Christ, how is this still a thing in late fall 2020? What a heel turn it would be if it happened that the Swedish government were deliberately hindering the adoption of masking in order to keep the virus as unmitigated as possible... Coupled with the death panels preemptive triage for the elderly sick that contributed to so many deaths... Makes you think.

What makes it a tragedy is that Sweden was well-placed to avoid most of the damage with some simple changes. We have so many examples of successful intervention, whereas it's doubtful that "natural" herd immunity has ever been achieved in a large population for any infectious disease (leaving aside the cost of even theoretical success). There need to be penalties for reckless and callous ideological fixation in disregard of evidence. In the final estimate the Swedish people did right by themselves, but their government failed them badly.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Yep, here we are......again:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQCG2AwzTxA

While the medical community has increased their knowledge of SARS-Cov-2 greatly in the last nine months, the common person has not:

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21560809/covid-19-cases-third-wave-lockdown-close-down-coronavirus-pandemic


The past few months have been an American experiment with Covid-19: Can the country keep bars, restaurants, gyms, and other businesses open while fighting the virus with milder measures, including some social distancing and widespread masking?
Six months after spring shutdowns ended, the answer is clear: The milder approach isn’t working.

Unlike the spring outbreak, the current disaster isn’t isolated to the New York City area and a few other states. It’s truly national: Every state now has more than four daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people, the standard for having Covid-19 under control. And some states now breach 100 daily new cases per 100,000 — which was unthinkable months ago. That’ll make it much harder to respond to outbreaks, as states dealing with their own crises won’t be able to, as they did in the spring and summer, send reinforcements of doctors and nurses to support other places.

With the milder measures failing us, it’s clear what needs to happen: To avert possibly hundreds of thousands of deaths in the months before a vaccine becomes widely available, the US needs to close down once again. That means temporarily shuttering in-person, indoor services at nonessential businesses, particularly bars and restaurants; restricting larger gatherings, including in private homes; and encouraging, or outright mandating, people to stay home as much as possible — only going out for food, work, exercise, health care, and other basics needs — and limit their social interactions to their own households.


As states have reopened, officials across the country have argued that other measures, like physical distancing, masking, and aggressive testing and tracing, can keep coronavirus cases down.

It’s true all these measures work to reduce coronavirus cases, based on a growing body (https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21299527/masks-coronavirus-covid-19-studies-research-evidence) of research (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30785-4/fulltext) and real-world evidence (https://www.vox.com/2020/5/4/21242825/coronavirus-covid-19-contact-tracing-jobs-apps). But these approaches don’t seem to be working as well as many hoped.
Part of it is an adherence problem, in which people simply aren’t social distancing and masking. In some states, an increase in larger gatherings, such as house parties, has led to more Covid-19 cases (https://www.baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/bs-md-pol-hogan-tuesday-20201110-4v2kqktribc6dmasorlpvpz2y4-story.html). Rates of masking in public can drop (https://covidcast.cmu.edu/?sensor=fb-survey-smoothed_wearing_mask&level=state&date=20201109&signalType=value&encoding=color&mode=overview&region=42003) below 75 or even 70 percent in some states, and the real rates are likely lower since people may not be honest with survey takers about their mask use. Fifteen states still don’t have mask mandates at all.

Is there a better argument for the "cluster-busting" used by both Japan and S. Korea than this statement?



The other problem is the milder approaches don’t seem to work well enough when cases are already high or rising. Consider contact tracing: The idea is “disease detectives” can contact people who are positive for the coronavirus to get them to isolate, find out their close contacts, and get those close contacts to quarantine. But that is simply much harder when there are more than 100,000 new cases a day — it requires much more staff, time, and resources. Even the best teams may not be able to keep up with exponential spread.

Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, estimated that contact tracing becomes difficult at 10 daily new cases per 100,000 people. The US is now at more than four times that, and some states are past 10 or even 15 times that threshold.

New York has a lot of testing, a contact tracing program, and a mask mandate, and strongly recommends social distancing. But it’s still seen its cases spiral as it’s reopened more and more. Since the state allowed indoor dining to reopen in New York City (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/09/nyregion/indoor-dining-coronavirus.html) in September, with parts of the state reopening before that, cases have spiked (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html) from a weekly average of 800 a day to more than 4,400. Indoor dining doesn’t explain the whole increase, but it’s reflective of a wider reopening that measures like masking simply haven’t been able to keep up with.

And the real problem.....AGAIN:


Adherence to existing mandates and guidelines, meanwhile, is spotty. Some experts argued: If we can’t get people to mask up, can we really get them to close down? “I could describe it as a fantasy,” Kumi Smith, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, told me. “I don’t know what political and cultural stars would have to align for, really, Americans everywhere to appreciate the gravity of the situation and make a lot of personal sacrifices.” Crucially, the bulk of this work must come from Congress and the White House. A big reason that states aren’t closing down right now is because they simply don’t have the resources or reach, especially as they deal with an economic downturn, to offer enough financial support to individuals and businesses hurt by new restrictions. The federal government does.

The idea of further lockdowns would be much more palatable if financial aid were given like in the spring. However, Dr. No is more interested in getting a vote on more Trump judicial appointees (six of them currently) than in finding a solution to the current aid deadlock in Congress.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/10/30/mcconnell-senate-judges-lame-duck/

So here we are........Groundhog Day.....all over again:shame:

[Hooahguy]

While the US spirals with more Covid cases and deaths, a bright spot of news (https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/health/moderna-vaccine-results-coronavirus/index.html): the Moderna vaccine has been shown to be is 94.5% effective. Plus some major logistical benefits to this one over the Pfizer one-

While the two vaccines appear to have very similar safety and efficacy profiles, Moderna's vaccine has a significant practical advantage over Pfizer's.

Pfizer's vaccine has to be kept at minus 75 degrees Celsius. No other vaccine in the US needs to be kept that cold, and doctors' offices and pharmacies do not have freezers that go that low.

Moderna's vaccine can be kept at minus 20 degrees Celsius. Other vaccines, such as the one against chickenpox, need to be kept at that temperature.

That means Moderna's vaccine can be kept in "a readily available freezer that is available in most doctors' offices and pharmacies," Zacks said. "We leverage infrastructure that already exists for other marketed vaccines."

Another advantage of Moderna's vaccine is that it can be kept for 30 days in the refrigerator, the company announced Monday. Pfizer's vaccine can last only five days in the refrigerator.

I could see the deployment of both vaccines- like perhaps the Pfizer one to cities with the infrastructure for deep freezing, while the Moderna one goes to harder to reach areas.

[Montmorency]

It's what happens when you maximize the Research slider. :uhoh:

[ReluctantSamurai]

I could see the deployment of both vaccines- like perhaps the Pfizer one to cities with the infrastructure for deep freezing, while the Moderna one goes to harder to reach areas.

A monumental accomplishment, to say the least. Now comes an equally difficult task...getting enough people to take a vaccine to actually have an impact on the spread of the virus.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I expect to see more of this in the next several months:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/17/north-dakota-covid-positive-health-workers-coronavirus


“If hospital administrators start forcing Covid-positive staff to go to work, it’s going to be very scary. We’re trained to do no harm, and asking Covid-positive, asymptomatic nurses to return to work is putting patients at risk. It’s putting fellow staff members at risk.”

Healthcare workers are overwhelmed and exhausted. According to a recent survey from the National Nurses United, more than 70% of hospital nurses said they were afraid of contracting Covid-19 and 80% feared they might infect a family member. More than half said they struggled to sleep and 62 reported feeling stressed and anxious. Nearly 80% said they were forced to re-use single-use, PPE, like N95 respirators.

Inaction at the state and federal levels have left many healthcare workers feeling abandoned. When Governor Burgum issued the order that infected but asymptomatic nurses could report to work in Covid units, North Dakota had not implemented any kind of statewide mask mandate, despite expert guidance that such a measure could significantly reduce transmission of the virus.

If I were a doctor or a nurse, I'd be finding it difficult to treat patients many of whom I'd know had a cavalier attitude about this pandemic, and now they are in the hospital with COVID-19 expecting to be saved by the very medical profession they believe are perpetrating a giant hoax designed to take away their freedoms. Americans are fucking stupid and ungrateful.....:no:

[Montmorency]

I expect to see more of this in the next several months:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/17/north-dakota-covid-positive-health-workers-coronavirus



If I were a doctor or a nurse, I'd be finding it difficult to treat patients many of whom I'd know had a cavalier attitude about this pandemic, and now they are in the hospital with COVID-19 expecting to be saved by the very medical profession they believe are perpetrating a giant hoax designed to take away their freedoms. Americans are fucking stupid and ungrateful.....:no:


https://twitter.com/NewDay/status/1328319845012824065



A South Dakota ER nurse
@JodiDoering
says her Covid-19 patients often “don’t want to believe that Covid is real.”

“Their last dying words are, ‘This can’t be happening. It’s not real.’ And when they should be... Facetiming their families, they’re filled with anger and hatred.”

Death cult.

[video=youtube;A-BQ6wKlMZA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-BQ6wKlMZA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-BQ6wKlMZA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-BQ6wKlMZA

[ReluctantSamurai]

Another example of duality in how laws are applied to the general public, and government officials:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/03/hawaii-couple-united-airlines-covid-positive-test

And yet POTUS can hold potential super-spreader events (and continues to hold them, ie. White House Christmas parties) that has infected dozens in immediate White House personnel, and thousands in political rallies. Can't wait for this dip-shit to be gone from the Oval Office....

[Gilrandir]

This is the way to cure COVID.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq-Qs-n6Vek&ab_channel=U-EyE

[Montmorency]

The Swedish government finally cracked, if a little (https://www.wsj.com/articles/long-a-holdout-from-covid-19-restrictions-sweden-ends-its-pandemic-experiment-11607261658).


Sweden’s Covid-19 experiment is over.

After a late autumn surge in infections led to rising hospitalizations and deaths, the government has abandoned its attempt—unique among Western nations—to combat the pandemic through voluntary measures.

In an emotional televised address on Nov. 22, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven pleaded with Swedes to cancel all nonessential meetings and announced a ban on gatherings of more than eight people, which triggered the closure of cinemas and other entertainment venues. Starting Monday, high schools will be closed.

“Authorities chose a strategy totally different to the rest of Europe, and because of it the country has suffered a lot in the first wave,” said Piotr Nowak, a physician working with Covid-19 patients at the Karolinska University Hospital in Stockholm. “We have no idea how they failed to predict the second wave.”

Last week Sweden’s total coronavirus death count crossed 7,000. Neighboring Denmark, Finland and Norway, all similar-sized countries, have recorded since the start of the pandemic 878, 415 and 354 deaths respectively. For the first time since World War II, Sweden’s neighbors have closed their borders with the country.

One reason Sweden stuck to its approach for so long despite the warning signs is the high degree of independence and authority enjoyed by the health agency and other similar state bodies under Swedish law.

The public face of the country’s pandemic strategy was Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist.

Dr. Tegnell declined to be interviewed this week, but in earlier conversations with The Wall Street Journal and other media he said lockdowns were unsustainable and unnecessary. His agency has continued to discourage mask-wearing just as the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, a European Union agency whose headquarters are located near Dr. Tegnell’s office in Stockholm, recommends wearing them.

In recent months, Dr. Tegnell predicted that Swedes would gradually build immunity to the virus through controlled exposure, that vaccines would take longer than expected to develop, and that death rates across the West would converge.

Instead, the West’s first coronavirus vaccine was authorized in Britain last week, Sweden’s death rate remains an outlier among its neighbors, and Dr. Tegnell acknowledged in late November that the new surge in infections showed there was “no sign” of herd immunity in the country.

Meanwhile, Sweden’s laissez-faire pandemic strategy has failed to deliver the economic benefits its proponents had predicted. In the first half of the year, Sweden’s gross domestic product fell by 8.5% and unemployment is projected to rise to nearly 10% in the beginning of 2021, according to the central bank and several economic institutes.

Businesses such as restaurants, hotels and retail outfits are facing a wave of closures; unlike in the rest of Europe, where governments coupled restrictions with generous stimulus, Swedish authorities have offered comparatively less support to businesses since they didn’t impose closures.

“This is worse than a lockdown and it has been a catastrophic year for everyone in the business: They haven’t closed us so they don’t give us any substantial support, yet they say to people ‘don’t go to restaurants’,” said Jonas Hamlund, who was forced to close one of his two restaurants in the coastal city of Sundsvall, laying off 30 people.

Fear of the virus and the government’s advice to avoid social interactions have weighed on domestic demand, damaging business and investor confidence, said Lars Calmfors, an economist and member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

“Countries that had mandatory restrictions have done better than us,” he added.

“We like to think of ourselves as being very rational and pragmatic,” Mr. Calmfors, the economist, said. Yet for months, he added, authorities persisted in their approach despite mounting evidence that it was failing. “I can’t recognize my country anymore.”

https://i.imgur.com/G5urg9R.png
https://i.imgur.com/EPPjMmC.png



While it is a smaller failure compared to countries like the US and Brazil, the realization that so much better was available to the Swedish population, and for so little extra effort, makes it somehow more shameful. Let's not export America's tyranny of low standards.

Well, OK, I don't quite believe that. For the US to perform as it did, having the resources it had, is inexcusable and casts it unfavorably against every other country, including every so-called developing world debacle (let alone the success stories).

[Crandar]

That (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/how-greece-is-beating-coronavirus-despite-a-decade-of-debt) didn't age well (https://www.politico.eu/article/greece-prime-minister-accused-of-breaking-coronavirus-lockdown-rules/).

[Shaka_Khan]

If I were a doctor or a nurse, I'd be finding it difficult to treat patients many of whom I'd know had a cavalier attitude about this pandemic, and now they are in the hospital with COVID-19 expecting to be saved by the very medical profession they believe are perpetrating a giant hoax designed to take away their freedoms. Americans are fucking stupid and ungrateful.....:no:
Many people are confused and unprepared because this pandemic and the masks are being politicized. And the mixed messages by the top people in the WHO and in the high positions of certain governments made the level of urgency even more confusing - first claiming that it was nothing to worry about, that it doesn't spread via aerosol and that masks aren't necessary, then changing their minds and saying that masks and lockdowns are necessary. Most of all, one government silenced the whistleblowers and initially tried to hide the outbreak in their country. We're lucky because we watched the whistleblowers' videos before their videos got deleted.

[Montmorency]

Wow (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/12/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-design.html).


You may be surprised to learn that of the trio of long-awaited coronavirus vaccines, the most promising, Moderna’s mRNA-1273, which reported a 94.5 percent efficacy rate on November 16, had been designed by January 13. This was just two days after the genetic sequence had been made public in an act of scientific and humanitarian generosity that resulted in China’s Yong-Zhen Zhang’s being temporarily forced out of his lab. In Massachusetts, the Moderna vaccine design took all of one weekend. It was completed before China had even acknowledged that the disease could be transmitted from human to human, more than a week before the first confirmed coronavirus case in the United States. By the time the first American death was announced a month later, the vaccine had already been manufactured and shipped to the National Institutes of Health for the beginning of its Phase I clinical trial.

Although I hear that the 1968 flu pandemic saw a vaccine in distribution in less than half a year, so I guess flu vaccines are just easy???

[Viking]

mRNA vaccines sound simple enough: identify parts of the virus genome that code for proteins that could trigger an immune response when the live virus enters the body. In practice, I guess any protein on the viral surface, such as spike proteins. In enveloped viruses, such as the coronaviruses, many or all surface proteins (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK26878/) should have an easily identifiable signature (https://www.pnas.org/content/115/46/E10988) that means that they can be more or less detected automatically from the genetic sequence.

Then you need to find a protein that that is similar enough in shape when it is produced in isolation (without the rest of the virus) and when it is found on the surface of live viruses (and maybe elsewhere during the viral lifecycle, too). You also need a method to deliver the mRNA to human cells; which perhaps is largely independent of the virus. Then you have it.

[Shaka_Khan]

It was completed before China had even acknowledged that the disease could be transmitted from human to human, more than a week before the first confirmed coronavirus case in the United States.
Those who watched the Chinese whistleblower videos already knew about the human to human transmission before the Chinese government acknowledged it. But still, January 13 is a surprisingly quick time to design a vaccine. They must've known about the outbreak since 2019.

[Montmorency]

mRNA vaccines sound simple enough: identify parts of the virus genome that code for proteins that could trigger an immune response when the live virus enters the body. In practice, I guess any protein on the viral surface, such as spike proteins. In enveloped viruses, such as the coronaviruses, many or all surface proteins (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK26878/) should have an easily identifiable signature (https://www.pnas.org/content/115/46/E10988) that means that they can be more or less detected automatically from the genetic sequence.

Then you need to find a protein that that is similar enough in shape when it is produced in isolation (without the rest of the virus) and when it is found on the surface of live viruses (and maybe elsewhere during the viral lifecycle, too). You also need a method to deliver the mRNA to human cells; which perhaps is largely independent of the virus. Then you have it.

Sounds legit. According to the article I linked, there was existing knowledge on how to target coronavirus spike proteins from the cumulative research on SARS virus. Also, that "it would be possible to do all the research, development, preclinical testing, and Phase I trials for new viral pandemics before those new viruses had even emerged — to have those vaccines sitting on the shelf and ready to go when they did... for nearly the entire universe of potential future viral pandemics — at least 90 percent of them, one of them told me, and likely more." And this would probably cost only a few billion dollars. Bittersweet if plausible, setting up another tragedy of the will-we-prepare-for-things-that-are-easily-prepared-for-yet-will-cost-trillions-of-dollars-and-millions-of-lives-if-we-don'ts.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I've referenced this before, and hopefully, the promise it shows will attract more researchers and more funding:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/12/covid-19-has-an-odour-and-the-dogs-are-detecting-it-meet-the-canine-super-squad-sniffing-out-the-virus


It might sound more Take A Break magazine than the British Medical Journal, and Guest admits she has had to put up with a lot of scepticism along the way. But she points out that, back in 2004 she worked on the first scientific study that showed dogs can detect human bladder cancer, which was in fact published in the BMJ (https://www.bmj.com/content/329/7468/712). Recently, she’s worked alongside Professors James Logan at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and Steve Lindsay of the department of biosciences at Durham University, among others, on a successful project to train dogs to identify malaria (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(19)30220-8/fulltext).

Samples are collected from hospitals, volunteers, people who test positive and develop symptoms of various degrees of severity, as well as asymptomatic cases. They wear socks, T-shirts and masks overnight, which go to Logan and his team for processing. Then the samples are sent on to Medical Detection Dogs to see if the dogs confirm what they had been hearing anecdotally from the wards: that Covid-19 has a smell. “Some people have described it as a sickly sweet smell,” says Logan.

“We are not looking to replace clinical testing,” Logan says. “We are keen to use dogs in very specific circumstances, where we need to get through a lot of people quickly. Airports, sports stadiums, train stations, universities, care homes.” Guest points out how useful it would have been to deploy Covid dogs at the airports early on in the pandemic, with all those flights coming here, bringing in so-called “super-spreaders” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/what-are-super-spreaders-and-how-are-they-transmitting-coronavirus).

With all the brilliant news about vaccines (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/23/vaccine-brings-us-a-step-closer-to-ending-covid-says-oxford-scientist) and their efficacy, won’t the Covid dogs be redundant before they even get to work? Logan mentions “a readiness platform, for the next one. We know what to do, what samples we need, and how to collect them, so we can deal with this quicker next time.” If necessary, there could be a team of dogs, trained and ready to go, to sent out to an emerging virus’s country of origin.

Guest knows how hard it is to roll out a mass vaccination programme: shehasn’t been able to get a flu jab this winter. “I think there’s going to be work for the dogs to do,” she says. Medical Detection Dogs is also collaborating with a quantum physicist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology on developing electronic sensors to do the same work as the dogs, sniffing out disease (specifically prostate cancer), but that’s not currently up and running. Don’t stand the dogs down just yet, in other words.

:applause:

[Montmorency]

Another entry in the we-knew-all-this-already-but-here's-more sweepstakes.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/trump-covid-pandemic-dark-winter


The catastrophe began with Trump’s initial refusal to take seriously the threat of a once-in-a-century pandemic. But, as officials detailed, it has been compounded over time by a host of damaging presidential traits — his skepticism of science, impatience with health restrictions, prioritization of personal politics over public safety, undisciplined communications, chaotic management style, indulgence of conspiracies, proclivity toward magical thinking, allowance of turf wars and flagrant disregard for the well-being of those around him.

Kennedy said that Brad Smith, the director of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation and a friend of Kushner, asked him and another volunteer to make a coronavirus model for 2020 that specifically projected a low casualty count. When Kennedy noted that he had no training in epidemiology and had never modeled a virus before, he recalled, Smith told him that it was just like making a financial model. The other models made by the health experts, Smith explained, were “too catastrophic.”

“‘They think 250,000 people could die and I want this model to show that fewer than 100,000 people will die in the worst-case scenario,’ ” Kennedy said Smith told him. “He gave us the numbers he wanted it to say.”

Kennedy and the other volunteer refused to make the model. But he said the incident left him discomfited.

“[Smith] said, ‘Look around. Does it look like 250,000 people are going to die? I don’t think so,’ ” Kennedy recounted. “And I remember thinking it was a weird thing to say because we were surrounded by military officers in the [Federal Emergency Management Agency] basement and it did look like a lot of people might die.”

“[Kushner] is like, ‘I’m going to bring in my data and we’re going to MBA this to death and make it work,’ ” one senior administration official said.
[...]
Though Kushner had initially promised thousands of testing sites, only 78 materialized, the document said, and the national stockpile was used to supply more than half of those.

“The knock against Jared has always been that he’s a dilettante who will dabble in this and dabble in that without doing the homework or really engaging in a long-term, sustained, committed way, but will be there to claim credit if things go well and disappear if things go poorly,” a former senior administration official said. “And this is another example of that.”

By the summer, Trump had grown angry with Kushner over problems with testing, said current and former administration officials — a rare conflict between the president and his son-in-law.


UK still playing second fiddle in policy-based evidence-making (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy-based_evidence_making), Pann.

Now, it's conceivable that, all told, India will have more deaths than us, with some ungenerous assumptions as to the accuracy of their tabulation of deaths from all causes...

[Xantan]

mRNA vaccines sound simple enough: identify parts of the virus genome that code for proteins that could trigger an immune response when the live virus enters the body. In practice, I guess any protein on the viral surface, such as spike proteins. In enveloped viruses, such as the coronaviruses, many or all surface proteins (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK26878/) should have an easily identifiable signature (https://www.pnas.org/content/115/46/E10988) that means that they can be more or less detected automatically from the genetic sequence.

Then you need to find a protein that that is similar enough in shape when it is produced in isolation (without the rest of the virus) and when it is found on the surface of live viruses (and maybe elsewhere during the viral lifecycle, too). You also need a method to deliver the mRNA to human cells; which perhaps is largely independent of the virus. Then you have it.

In principle yes, in reality it's a bit more complicated.

mRNA are pretty much the first vaccines, as I am aware of, that can be considered genetic modifiers / genetic enhancers. Because mRNA does not work on the traditional vaccine model (inactive virus), we are genetically modifying a code to suit our defensive cells and as a result we have genetic modifications. In theory we should be fine.

However down the line I am a bit wary about this.

Regardless, vaccines are 100% useful.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Can any government possibly have a more chaotic system for rolling out vaccines?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/florida-s-decision-vaccinate-seniors-first-causes-distribution-chaos-n1252615


“This is such an important point and one where each state and each county left alone as an island is a setup for an unmitigated disaster, inequitable delivery, and inefficiency that could lead to more preventable deaths and hospitalizations,” Dr. Sadiya Khan, an epidemiologist at the Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. “The lack of an infrastructure for a vaccine that we’ve literally been planning and known was coming for months is wholeheartedly disappointing, but not unexpected.”

The first-come, first-serve (https://www.news-press.com/story/news/education/2020/12/30/department-health-covid-19-vaccination-sites-reach-capacity-again/4058945001/) vaccine rollout this week in Lee County, in southwestern Florida, resulted in an embarrassing national spectacle — hundreds of senior citizens, many swaddled in blankets and winter coats, camping out overnight in long lines at testing sites that quickly ran out of vaccines.

“This reminded me of pre-internet days of getting into a long line the night before rock concert tickets for the Prince 'Purple Rain' tour went on sale back in the 1980s and hoping they did not sell out before I got to the window to purchase mine,” Jewett said.

A good example of media selectivism in reporting (exactly the same topic as the above NBC article):

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gov-desantis-receives-applause-as-florida-ramps-up-vaccine-distribution-for-countrys-largest-elderly-populat


Florida (https://www.foxnews.com/category/us/us-regions/southeast/florida) Gov. Ron DeSantis drew applause Wednesday for his refusal to take the coronavirus (https://www.foxnews.com/category/health/infectious-disease/coronavirus) vaccine ahead of senior populations, telling reporters he is "not the priority."

Applause from who, besides you, Fox News?


"That’s the population that’s been most at risk for COVID, it’s impacted their lives greater and we have a responsibility to stand by those folks who have done so much to make our state and country what it is today," DeSantis said during a Wednesday press conference. "You talk about a place like Kings Point, you have people from the Greatest Generation, people who fought in World War II, survived the Holocaust – these are people that we’ve got to stand with and prioritize."

Sounds like the governor is already running for re-election....:rolleyes:

I guess it was more important to mention how heroic Gov DeSantis is, in waiting his turn to get vaccinated, while not a peep about those "people from the Greatest Generation" who had to wait in 40 degree weather for hours to get vaccinated....if the supply didn't run out:shame:

[Montmorency]

The states are experiencing bottlenecks in distributing what vaccine doses they do have on hand, in part due to the (correct) doctrine of identifying priority populations to vaccinate on schedule. Instead of finding ways around this with their limited resources and in absence of federal support/coordination, such as by putting out calls for general population applicants to absorb vacant slots, governors like Cuomo in NY and Newsom in California are leaning on threats of heavy civil and criminal penalties for providers who do not strictly adhere to the schedules. Probably a mistake (https://twitter.com/webdevMason/status/1345519977600716800).


More evidence that the Swedish public health authority made mass death their formal primary objective all along, and moreover attempted to conceal this from the public.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/sweden-coronavirus-covid-response/


When the Swedish government categorized COVID-19 as a socially dangerous disease on Feb. 2, Peet Tull was sitting on a lonely farm on the Swedish island of Gotland, watching developments with concern. Tull was one of the people who built up the country’s infection control unit: He had been Public Health Agency Director Johan Carlson’s boss and also given assignments to Anders Tegnell, the agency’s chief epidemiologist, whom he knows well. Another thing Tull knows well is the Infection Control Act, because he participated in drafting it—and he wondered why Sweden hadn’t implemented a contact-tracing system or put travelers from international COVID-19 hot spots in quarantine.

As he observed global coronavirus cases surge, Tull wrote an email to Tegnell on March 15, proposing three possible options to deal with the pandemic. Option one, he said, would be to “stop all movement and contacts for a four-week period.” Another option, one recommended by the World Health Organization, would be to conduct intensive testing, tracking, and quarantine of infected patients. Or, he said, Sweden could pursue a third option: “Let the spread of infection take place, slowly or quickly, to achieve a hypothetical herd immunity.”

Tull warned: “One thing is known that with option three Sweden will probably have thousands of deaths,” and concluded that “option three appears to me as a defeatist and headless strategy, which I would never have accepted in my previous role.”

Tegnell, the state epidemiologist, answered him the same day: “Well, we have walked through this and after everything landed on [option] three. We probably have a fairly extensive silent spread, which would mean that the first two would probably not work.”

Tull outlined actions to take including issuing general advice and regulations for testing and contact-tracing. Tegnell demurred, arguing that such a strategy hadn’t worked in Italy. Tull countered that it worked in China and South Korea—so why not in Sweden?

Right from the start of the pandemic, according to recently declassified internal emails seen by Foreign Policy, Tegnell seemed resigned to pursuing herd immunity for Swedes, seeing little chance of stopping COVID-19 through the means successfully employed in other countries such as South Korea or Vietnam.

On March 15, the day Tegnell wrote Tull they had landed on option three, Tegnell said the Public Health Agency’s “main tactic” was not herd immunity, adding that its goal and herd immunity were “not contradictory.” But in public, Tegnell frequently argued that herd immunity was “definitely not” a goal. As recently as Nov. 18, Minister of Health and Social Affairs Lena Hallengren said that the idea that Sweden had pursued a herd immunity strategy was a “rumor.”

The day before his correspondence with Tull, Tegnell forwarded an email to his Finnish counterpart, Mika Salminen, which contained a recommendation from a doctor to allow people to become infected with COVID-19. “One point would be to keep schools open to reach herd immunity more quickly,” Tegnell wrote.

Salminen said his agency had ultimately rejected such an approach, realizing children would still spread the virus, whereas closing schools could limit the disease’s impact on the elderly by about 10 percent. Tegnell, who still thought that quickly achieving herd immunity was the best strategy, responded: “10 percent might be worth it?”

The next day, Tegnell forwarded a study on Italy’s experience with COVID-19 to Jan Albert, a professor of microbiology, who was part of a coronavirus expert group assembled a few weeks earlier by the Karolinska Institute, a university and the center of Sweden’s medical research community. Tegnell pointed to what seemed to be a “flattening of new cases” there.

Albert replied: “Exactly. But most people think it’s just the lockdown. How much [is because of] lockdown and how much [is because of] herd immunity is really the key issue.” Tegnell answered: “If anyone had time, you should look at the various lockdowns that have been made and what the development looks like afterwards. I believe more in herd immunity.’’

Tegnell remained convinced that a rapid spread of the virus would shield Sweden, a belief that seemed to lead the country’s whole response to the crisis. A month after corresponding with Tull, Tegnell said Stockholm could achieve herd immunity in May. Three weeks later, he said: “In the autumn there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low,” a claim he repeated into mid-October.

Carlson, Tegnell’s boss, echoed on Aug. 30 what Tegnell wrote Tull: “It is not about us sacrificing a lot of people to achieve immunity. This model was the only one that was feasible. Our assessment has proven to be correct. The strategy must last over time. We are one of the few countries with a limited spread of infection, unlike several countries in Europe where the infection returns sharply.”

It didn’t work out that way. Sweden is facing an increase in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. On Nov. 5, the country reached the grim statistic of 6,000 deaths. In the six weeks since, nearly 2,000 more have died. In the week ending Dec. 18, Sweden registered 479 new deaths, more than Norway has during the entire pandemic.

A day after Tegnell corresponded with Tull, he discussed the EU’s not-yet-released border recommendations, including health checks, with Andreas Johansson and others at the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs. “This table contains a long list of details where we have a completely different strategy in Sweden,” he wrote. Tegnell opposed border health screenings and did not support EU measures to limit case importation or exportation, arguing that since domestic spread had already begun in most countries, border limits would be relatively meaningless.

The very next day, March 17, Tegnell said on television that he did not think there was any difference between what other countries were doing and what Sweden was attempting. “I do not think these strategies are different, we are talking about exactly the same thing in both strategies,” he said.

Throughout the pandemic, Stockholm issued no general national mask recommendations, not even for general elder care, unless there was evidence patients had the coronavirus. The government’s official health guidance still casts doubt on the efficacy of wearing masks, even as authorities in most other countries have come to appreciate the role that masks play in limiting the spread of an airborne virus. But then Swedish health authorities remain unconvinced the virus even is airborne, officially telling citizens “COVID-19 does not count as an airborne infection.” On Dec. 18, the government announced that the Public Health Agency would draw up recommendations for wearing masks during crowded commuting hours on public transit, but those will only come into force after Jan. 7. The updated official advice includes the line, “We do not currently recommend a broad use of masks in society,” and continues to cast doubt on the scientific evidence for masks, even saying that masks may provide a false sense of security.

Unlike in neighboring countries, bars, restaurants, and gyms remained open. Compulsory in-person schooling continued through middle school; high school and post-secondary education moved online on March 17. Not until March 24, two weeks after the risk level was raised to the highest level, was the general public encouraged to socially distance if possible. Nursing homes stayed open to visitors until April 1.

While neighbors began to introduce curbs on public life and speed up testing, Sweden did neither. Denmark, which entered a short lockdown on March 17, began easing it when it announced the beginning of widespread testing on March 30. Internal emails show it wasn’t until Denmark implemented its testing plan that the Swedish government and the Public Health Agency even began discussing one.

Whether authorities were talking about herd immunity, access to hospital care, how the virus spreads, or how testing was determined, Sweden told one story in public and a different one in private.

Prime Minister Stefan Lofven declined to be interviewed, but a spokesperson said: “Herd immunity is not a strategy, but a potential consequence of how the spread of the virus develops. Herd immunity has never been a part of the Swedish Government’s strategy.” Lofven, through a spokesperson, previously said that Sweden’s “strategy is not much different from other countries,” yet Sweden is the only democratic country in the world that does not mandate even limited use of masks.

A full government reckoning of the handling of the pandemic won’t be made public until 2022, but an interim report on the spread of the virus in nursing homes was released on Dec. 15. It noted that government measures were late and inadequate, and called the spread of the virus in society the “single most important factor behind the major outbreaks and the high number of deaths in residential care.”

One man at least, Tull, had seen what was coming and tried to warn experts not to make matters worse. In his final email to Tegnell on March 15, Tull, who had worked to eradicate smallpox in Bangladesh, implored health authorities not to throw up their hands and to give science and precautionary measures a chance.

“You cannot just watch when you fear that a large number of people may die,” he wrote. “Every effort must be made to prevent this from happening. It is not enough to ‘believe’ that it is not possible.”

Even worse to continue watching, to take pains to keep everyone else watching, even after a large number of people have come to die.

Is Sweden like a case study in hierarchical failure in organizations, or what? Did they just happen to land on a "scientific" consensus around the epidemiological equivalent of bloodletting (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloodletting) in the one country? Or is it that one man (Tegnell) had a fixation on facilitated spread as a shortcut, and that became the (covert) politically-correct line among government scientists? Either way, Sweden demonstrates the downside of high social trust in government (namely that it can hinder timely scrutiny of government operation).

If you think your strategy is so great, you shouldn't have to lie to the public about it like some dastardly bureaucrat in a late-20th century action movie.


Interesting analysis of how Swedish Social Democratic PM Loefven is maneuvering to turn his tenure during the pandemic to his advantage, partly by deflecting blame. Article includes context to the beginning of his reign more than 5 years ago. If Loefven somehow manages to expand Sweden's welfare state by leaning on conservative culpability in underfunding healthcare and elder care, that would be a nice turnaround. He really should repudiate and fire Tegnell though, or get him to "resign," assuming he has the authority.
https://www.politico.eu/article/stefan-lofven-sweden-coronavirus-escape/


Silver lining of the 2020 pandemic is that the whole world will probably be better technically and institutionally prepared for all possible future pandemics, whether or not this endowment be put to use when the time comes.



"Covid Denial in One Picture (https://www.readingthepictures.org/2020/11/covid-denial/)" (It's the SIR that makes this funny for New Yorkers)

https://www.readingthepictures.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Mask_Staten_Island.jpg


One of the latest posts ("Media, Grief, and Three Views of a Tragic Covid Zoom Goodbye"):

https://www.readingthepictures.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Zoom-goodbye_crop.jpg


Paul Krugman points out that conservative instincts of perversity, futility, and jeopardy with regard to public health measures (such as against CV19) are bone-deep. See The Economist (http://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~ucessjb/Halliday%201999.pdf) against the position that London should invest in its sewers:


Suffering and evil are nature's admonitions; they cannot be got rid of; and the impatient attempts of benevolence to banish them from the world by legislation, before benevolence has learned their object and their end, have always been more productive of evil than good.

Translation: We exist; good luck getting rid of us.


Portrait (https://twitter.com/oldnorthroad/status/1343935741680898049) in lack of perspicacity:

https://i.imgur.com/MKpVZf9.jpg


Is this normal? The chasm between antibody testing capacity and utilization is strange to me, far in excess of the gap between antigen testing capacity and utilization as it is.

https://i.imgur.com/HIv436K.png


Funny, but Tegnell and Carl Heneghan apparently both met Boris Johnson in September - at the same time - to advise him against implementing new restrictions. Around that time when I was affirming that the UK had to act fast if it was serious about maintaining any semblance of both normality and public health through the fall. Smashing.

I hope they all get canceled. It's the least we can do.


Speaking of Britain, I might as well dump some Brexit stuff here.

https://twitter.com/Milo_Edwards/status/1344023289451180035 [VIDEO]

Some, uh, context....
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/may/01/eel-fishing-europe-environment [2009]
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1343951610595209217 [VIDEO] [2018]
https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/gloucester-news/gloucestershire-eel-farm-wont-survive-2732750 [2019]

News reports should really try to mention when subjects or interviewees have appeared in the media in the past.


Special report (https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/13/koch-funded-pr-agency-aided-great-barrington-declaration-sponsor/) for Pannonian: American Republicans finance the increasingly-vocal UK libertarian movement, with such manifestations as the Great Barrington Declaration.


Podcast on Brexit (https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/12/lgm-podcast-brexiting-with-brexit), in loose summary:

Hard Brexit but not No Deal with overwhelming Parliament vote. Customs border between NI and the rest of the UK remains (NI still in EU customs union). UK fishers can come within 12 miles of France, but EU fishers can come within 6 miles of UK (shore). But fishing is less than 0.1% of UK GDP. An Independent article or poll has only 27% of the UK population satisfied with the agreement. As part of the agreement, UK has left the Erasmus program of exchange between universities. Official Labour party platform is that the issue is settled for the foreseeable future, and that even most strong EU supporters in the party have acquiesced. Political attention will shift away from the issue because it's both boring and anxiety-inducing, especially among the general public. (Ed. Looking at the historical cycles of social democracy, one would expect the issue to be revived eventually - at least from the top down - perhaps sooner rather than later given that the EU as exogenous influence will be constantly revisited in terms of ongoing unfinished topics of negotiation and international relations.) Brexiters hope to replace 4-5% lost GDP from Brexit with a trade deal with the US or elsewhere that improves upon the former EU status quo. From the perspective of the UK, either Trump or Biden as president would screw them in any trade deal. UK MSM coverage of Trump's/Republicans' election shenanigans has consistently overestimated their formal authority, or their invocation thereof (e.g. "alternate electoral slates"). The UK has set a new record for recorded infections last week (Ed. Also this week), indicative of the sorts of failures of the Conservative government that have brought them to a tie with or running behind Labour in the polls. The Conservative Party is supposedly apt at removing leaders that will lose them power, so Johnson's days may be as numbered as May's at this rate.


Now, the initial play for the Conservative Party would and should have been to blame Brussels, because that's always a winner. Blame Brussels, a bunch of Eurocrats, you know, whatever they speak - French, they're scary - or German, which is worse, right?

Unrelated to Brexit or this podcast, but I just learned that there are ~50% more mining and quarry workers in the EU (less UK?) than in the US.


...Something about London schools?


I guess it was more important to mention how heroic Gov DeSantis is, in waiting his turn to get vaccinated, while not a peep about those "people from the Greatest Generation" who had to wait in 40 degree weather for hours to get vaccinated....if the supply didn't run out:shame:

DeathSantis.


who had to wait in 40 degree weather for hours

Everything granted, granted, granted, but dude - you're from Michigan.

[Crandar]

A brief summary (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-escape-theory.html?utm_source=tw&utm_medium=s1&utm_campaign=nym) on the possible origins of Covid. The lab hypothesis seems like the most probable and convincing one. That type of research for pandemic prevention is very controversial and has caused accidents before. The career of many well-respected scientists depends on these practices, which is probably why they adopted the bat theory so quickly, but the lab explanation requires much fewer assumptions to get established. It's unlikely we will learn the truth in the foreseeable future, though.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Good article...very looong read. I think it's unlikely the true origins of SARS-Cov-2 will ever be found (or admitted to), but it's obvious, despite rhetoric to the contrary, that the virus could have certainly been fabricated by scientists in a lab. Research into bio-weapons has been going on for many decades, and the creation of weaponized bacteria and viruses has been a part of that (well documented by Mr. Baker).

While he documents the underlying zealousness of scientists who pursue science for the sake of knowledge, regardless of the risks, he was a little light on the matter of just how much money goes into allowing scientists to play with their "toys". The best example of this is in 2014 when there was a pause in the funding of so-called "gain-of-function" research due to some accidents involving anthrax, influenza, and smallpox:


Baric, in North Carolina, was not happy. He had a number of gain-of-function experiments with pathogenic viruses in progress. “It took me ten seconds to realize that most of them were going to be affected,” he told NPR (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2014/11/07/361219361/how-a-tilt-toward-safety-stopped-a-scientists-virus-research). Baric and a former colleague from Vanderbilt University wrote a long letter (https://osp.od.nih.gov/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Gain_of_Function_Deliberative_Process_Written_Public_Comments.pdf) to an NIH review board expressing their “profound concerns.” “This decision will significantly inhibit our capacity to respond quickly and effectively to future outbreaks of SARS-like or MERS-like coronaviruses, which continue to circulate in bat populations and camels,” they wrote. The funding ban was itself dangerous, they argued. “Emerging coronaviruses in nature do not observe a mandated pause.”

THAT, is unadulterated whining from a scientist who was about to lose his government sponsored income to "play" with his toys. Baric has been playing with recombinant-virus experiments for years culminating in his "no-see'm" technique:


[...] in a further round of “interspecies transfer” experimentation, Baric’s scientists introduced their mouse coronavirus into flasks that held a suspension of African-green-monkey cells, human cells, and pig-testicle cells. Then, in 2002, they announced something even more impressive: They’d found a way to create a full-length infectious clone of the entire mouse-hepatitis genome. Their “infectious construct” replicated itself just like the real thing, they wrote (https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/concern/articles/tb09jf50d?locale=en).

Not only that, but they’d figured out how to perform their assembly seamlessly, without any signs of human handiwork. Nobody would know if the virus had been fabricated in a laboratory or grown in nature. Baric called this the “no-see’m method,” and he asserted that it had “broad and largely unappreciated molecular biology applications.”

A scientist, given nearly unlimited funds to play around to his hearts content with experiments, justifies the danger involved by claiming "broad and largely unappreciated [...] applications" while giving only vague lip-service as to what those unappreciated applications might be. And yet, sweeping under the rug, a major reason for these "gain-of-function" experiments:


In 2006, Baric, Yount, and two other scientists were granted a patent for their invisible method of fabricating a full-length infectious clone using the seamless, no-see’m method. But this time, it wasn’t a clone of the mouse-hepatitis virus — it was a clone of the entire deadly human SARS virus, the one that had emerged from Chinese bats, via civets, in 2002. The Baric Lab came to be known by some scientists as “the Wild Wild West.” In 2007, Baric said that we had entered “the golden age of coronavirus genetics.”

I find it interesting that Shi Zhengli, the "bat woman", when it was determined that the pathogen responsible for the emerging outbreak in Wuhan closely resembled the bat virus RaTG13 that she had been experimenting with, was immediately concerned that it has escaped from her lab in Wuhan. This is where the Chinese government can, and should be held accountable:


If one of the first thoughts that goes through the head of a lab director at the Wuhan Institute of Virology is that the new coronavirus could have come from her lab, then we are obliged to entertain the scientific possibility that it could indeed have come from her lab. Right then, there should have been a comprehensive, pockets-inside-out, fully public investigation of the Virology Institute, along with the other important virus labs in Wuhan, including the one close by the seafood market, headquarters of the Wuhan CDC. There should have been interviews with scientists, interviews with biosafety teams, close parsings of laboratory notebooks, freezer and plumbing and decontamination systems checks — everything.

As Mr. Baker points out, none of that happened, and likely never will.

Picking on Professor Baric again:


Baric hoped to find a SARS vaccine, but he couldn’t; he kept looking for it, year after year, supported by the NIH, long after the disease itself had been contained. It wasn’t really gone, Baric believed. Like other epidemics that pop up and then disappear, as he told a university audience some years later, “they don’t go extinct. They are waiting to return.” What do you do if you run a well-funded laboratory, an NIH “center of excellence,” and your emergent virus is no longer actually making people sick? You start squeezing it and twisting it into different shapes. Making it stand on its hind legs and quack like a duck, or a bat. Or breathe like a person.

Mr. Baker points out that Baric's safety record is good, and his intentions may have been good, but it's the infusion of millions of dollars by government that leads scientists like Baric, IMHO, to lose perspective on what they are doing, and the danger it poses. And then there's Peter Daszak's [a British zoologist and president of EcoHealth Alliance, a nonprofit non-governmental organization that supports various programs on global health with headquarters in New York City] Dante-like proclamation:


The fallen angels could be seen as pathogenic organisms that had descended “through an evolutionary (not spiritual) pathway that takes them to a netherworld where they can feed only on our genes, our cells, our flesh,” Daszak wrote (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7087640/). “Will we succumb to the multitudinous horde? Are we to be cast downward into chthonic chaos represented here by the heaped up gibbering phantasmagory against which we rail and struggle?”

Seriously? "Chthonic chaos against which we rail and struggle"? Dunno what he's been smoking, but I want none of it....:inquisitive:

Baker's best argument on the possibility for lab generation of SARS-CoV-2:


The zoonoticists say that we shouldn’t find it troubling that virologists have been inserting and deleting furin cleavage sites and ACE2-receptor-binding domains in experimental viral spike proteins for years: The fact that virologists have been doing these things in laboratories, in advance of the pandemic, is to be taken as a sign of their prescience, not of their folly. But I keep returning to the basic, puzzling fact:This patchwork pathogen, which allegedly has evolved without human meddling, first came to notice in the only city in the world with a laboratory that was paid for years by the U.S. government to perform experiments on certain obscure and heretofore unpublicized strains of bat viruses — which bat viruses then turned out to be, out of all the organisms on the planet, the ones that are most closely related to the disease. What are the odds?

Perhaps viral nature hit a bull’s-eye of airborne infectivity, with almost no mutational drift, no period of accommodation and adjustment, or perhaps some lab worker somewhere, inspired by Baric’s work with human airway tissue, took a spike protein that was specially groomed to colonize and thrive deep in the ciliated, mucosal tunnels of our inner core and cloned it onto some existing viral bat backbone. It could have happened in Wuhan, but — because anyone can now “print out” a fully infectious clone of any sequenced disease — it could also have happened at Fort Detrick, or in Texas, or in Italy, or in Rotterdam, or in Wisconsin, or in some other citadel of coronaviral inquiry. No conspiracy — just scientific ambition, and the urge to take exciting risks and make new things, and the fear of terrorism, and the fear of getting sick. Plus a whole lot of government money.

Baker points out the serious lack of oversight in these "gain-of-function" experiments:


In chapter six of this thousand-page dissertation [a Gryphon Scientific report], published in April 2016, the consultants take up the question of coronaviruses. “Increasing the transmissibility of the coronaviruses could significantly increase the chance of a global pandemic due to a laboratory accident,” they wrote.

The Cambridge Working Group continued to write letters of protest and plead for restraint and sanity. Steven Salzberg, a professor of biomedical engineering at Johns Hopkins, said, “We have enough problems simply keeping up with the current flu outbreaks — and now with Ebola — without scientists creating incredibly deadly new viruses that might accidentally escape their labs.” David Relman of Stanford Medical School said, “It is unethical to place so many members of the public at risk and then consult only scientists — or, even worse, just a small subset of scientists — and exclude others from the decision-making and oversight process.”

When asked by a reporter to comment on increased funding for gain-of-function research, Dr. Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist and Professor in the Department of Epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said this:


A reporter asked Marc Lipsitch what he thought of the resumption of NIH funding. Gain-of-function experiments “have done almost nothing to improve our preparedness for pandemics,” he said, “yet they risked creating an accidental pandemic.”

So why the hell do we keep funding them, considering the risk? Further evidence that big money drives gain-of-function research:


Daszak was outraged (“I am not trained as a private detective”), and again he fought back. He was reluctant to give up his own secrets, too. “Conspiracy-theory outlets and politically motivated organizations have made Freedom of Information Act requests on our grants and all of our letters and emails to the NIH,” he told Nature. (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02473-4) “We don’t think it’s fair that we should have to reveal everything we do.”

You conduct experiments that theoretically could lead to the deaths of millions if your "pets" escape a laboratory, yet you don't think it's "fair" to reveal what your experiments are involved with. This is the core problem, IMHO. Lack of oversight.

Prescient?


“The world is sitting on a precedent-setting decision right now,” wrote Alina Chan [a member of the Broad Institute of Health at Harvard and MIT] on December 8. “It is unclear if SARS2 is 100 percent natural or emerged due to lab/research activities. If we walk away from this, demonstrating that we cannot effectively investigate its origins, it will pave the way for future COVIDS.”

Baker's conclusion:


For more than 15 years, coronavirologists strove to prove that the threat of SARS was ever present and must be defended against, and they proved it by showing how they could doctor the viruses they stored in order to force them to jump species and go directly from bats to humans. More and more bat viruses came in from the field teams, and they were sequenced and synthesized and “rewired,” to use a term that Baric likes. In this international potluck supper of genetic cookery, hundreds of new variant diseases were invented and stored. And then one day, perhaps, somebody messed up. It’s at least a reasonable, “parsimonious” explanation of what might have happened.

In light of all of this, if THIS doesn't scare the shit out of you, nothing will:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html

(https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html)Justification for doing this:


All of these issues show that more work needs to be done, both here in the United States and internationally, to prepare for the next pandemic.

Article was presented in 2018. Two years later....we all know what's transpired.

Makes sense, though....let's reconstitute the virus responsible for the deadliest pandemic in modern history...you know...just because we can, and claim it will help us "prepare for the next pandemic".

Scientists just don't have enough sense to let dead dogs lie....or in this case, dead Inuits....:no:

[ReluctantSamurai]

...but dude - you're from Michigan.

Yes, and I spent 25 years in rural Steuben County, NY when it was common to experience -25 degree F temperatures regularly, and snowstorms dropping 3' of snow at a time. But these folks are 65 year old+ FLORIDIANS. Not the same...:laugh4:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Yes, and I spent 25 years in rural Steuben County, NY when it was common to experience -25 degree F temperatures regularly, and snowstorms dropping 3' of snow at a time. But these folks are 65 year old+ FLORIDIANS. Not the same...:laugh4:

Indeed. I was just out shopping this morning while the better half went with her mom to the cardiologist. Saw several folks wearing their ug boots. Most folks had on thick hoodies or light jackets.

in 52F weather

to brave the 100 foot walk between heated store and heated car...

[Montmorency]

I'd definitely want to hear more scientists' sides of the story on the issues of funding, oversight, research targets. I've never had the impression that researchers in the biological sciences are awash in money, though it's granted that virological containment breaches have been a hard-scientific fiction trope for generations (https://stephenking.fandom.com/wiki/Captain_Trips).

[ReluctantSamurai]

@ Seamus

:laugh4:


I've never had the impression that researchers in the biological sciences are awash in money

Oh...it's BIIIG business, especially when you can produce patents. Aside from that, what about the ethical aspect? The article about resurrecting the H1N1 is frightening. Sure there's probably some epidemiological benefits, but is that worth the risk? (and I don't give a damn about all your BSL securities---accidents happen---Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, Deepwater Horizon etc.) The last time this particular H1N1 variant was running amok, more than 50 million died.

[Montmorency]

Here we should distinguish between commercial research and public or university-funded basic research - right? Did anyone ever get rich taking NIH grants?

In abstract I suppose, but if you could find some contras on Twitter or the blogs or the academic sites to parse...

[Crandar]

The Church resists (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/04/greek-orthodox-church-defy-lockdown-opening-epiphany?fbclid=IwAR2PuXVjSXgoBpVHyRdEP3ikDPZ-fC2MgP5NWJMW-n8mct608qZCGlBCYeM) and the state retreats (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/greek-churches-open-epiphany-feast-tight-lockdown-75076174?fbclid=IwAR0C21dDyyV5QeKlA2UXAPxLkGovQlQuqqYf1tvInls8jVPiG56ddhU533U).

[ReluctantSamurai]

but if you could find some contras on Twitter or the blogs or the academic sites to parse

This paper is a bit dated (2015), in five years the $ amounts are probably significantly more, it's UK-centric, and focuses on non-human test subjects used in experiments, but it illustrates one of the more hidden aspects of big business in research:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4598698/


Research establishments, scientists, laboratories, companies that sell nonhuman animal subjects, that supply equipment for the research, and corporations that market the resulting products are among those that benefit financially.

For example, For example, the research and development of medicines for the pharmaceuticals industry is largely based in the use of nonhuman animal subjects. Reports suggest that testing a potential medicine can involve the use of up to 800 nonhuman animals at a financial cost of over US$6 million. The nonhuman animals used and the money spent are clearly thought to be worth it by the pharmaceuticals industry; worldwide the industry is worth US$300 billion, with an anticipated rise to US$400 billion within three years.

There is a lot of money to be made out of the customers and consumers of services and products for human health and, where there is little money to be made pharmaceutical companies, for example, are less likely to innovate. The desire to maximize profits has been pointed out in current news media reports about the Ebola virus. In Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone there have been a total of 26,044 “confirmed, probable and suspected cases” of Ebola and at least 10,808 people in those countries have been killed by the virus. In Europe there have been two reported cases (one in Spain and one in the UK) and in the USA there have been four cases of Ebola, and one reported death. At the time of writing there is no vaccine against the virus. Erica Etelson suggests a reason for this. She refers to Margaret Chan’s (Director of the World Health Organization) assertion that the pharmaceutical industry’s failure to develop a vaccine up to now is because “A profit-driven industry does not invest in products for markets that cannot pay”. Etelson infers that, had the Ebola virus been detected in the USA sooner, a vaccine would already be available. She concludes that “Big Pharma’s greed isn’t some kind of aberration; it’s an inherent feature of free-market capitalism: A capitalist system, by design, puts profits over people”. This emphasis encourages a perspective on “benefits” that is oriented towards benefits as profits rather than on benefits as improvements to human health.

Biomedical research is funded by governments, private companies and organizations, and by donations from individuals and charities. In the UK, biomedical research receives millions of pounds of government funding. For example, in 2012 the UK Government announced “the Biomedical Catalyst….an integrated £180m funding programme to support the development of innovative solutions to healthcare challenges by both SMEs (Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises) and academics across the UK”. Private awards and grants augment the amount that is available for such research. In the UK the biggest investor is the pharmaceutical industry, which spends £12 million a day on such work, representing 70 percent of the total funds.

Biomedical researchers in academia rely on grants to fund their research not only to fund research but because securing a research grant enhances individual academic reputations and enhances the reputation of the university at which they are employed. Gaining research funding is a core component of evaluations for promotion.

The UK pharmaceutical industry alone invests vast sums of money in research and development. Across the EU in 2010 the pharmaceutical industry invested €27 billion in these activities. The UK pharmaceutical industry reports that 37 percent of current sales return is spent on research and development. When we recall that the UK industry spends £27 million daily on such work (see above) we gain an insight into the scale of their total sales return. An indication of the profits made from pharmaceuticals can be gleaned from individual company returns. For example, the UK-based pharmaceuticals company GlaxoSmithKline reported a pre-tax profit of £548 million for the three months to the end of September 2014 which, although considerably down from the figure of £1.4 billion for the same period in 2013, was reported to be better than expected. Shareholders benefitted as “shares rose 4% after its third-quarter results beat expectations and it pledged to return an additional £4bn to shareholders via a special share scheme”.

With at least 115.3 million nonhuman subjects used in experiments across the world every year there is a great deal of money to be made out of the breeding and selling of nonhuman animals to laboratories. Charles River is one of the suppliers of nonhuman animals to the global industry. The list of nonhuman animals the company supplies is extensive. Mice and rats are used in vast numbers in biomedical experiments, not least because they are thought to react to medication in similar ways to humans and because they are relatively inexpensive to buy. A three week old Swiss pigmented mouse, who is marketed as being “for general purpose”, is sold by Charles River for US$10.10 [if he is male] and for US$10.95 (if she is female). The “genetically engineered” mouse who is sold under the label 11BHSD2 is bred in the USA and is promoted by Charles River as being “Ideal for cardiac hypertrophy, heart failure”. Depending on “types” and age an individual mouse costs between $32 and $181, with additional charges of $10 for each additional week of age. In 2013 the company’s total revenue was US$1.17 billion.

The equipment that is used in such research includes that which is associated with housing, feeding, experimenting on and the killing of nonhuman animal subjects, The catalogues of suppliers include advertisements for cages, restraints and guillotines. The Canada-based company Lomir Biomedical is a supplier of a range of equipment for such research. The company markets a variety of products and strives to invent new ones that can be marketed as responding to the changing needs of biomedical scientists. For example, the company states that it has “identified a need for a range of undershirts for laboratory animals as scientific procedures become much more refined. Undershirts are an effective means of securing electrodes, connectors, Fentanyl patches or any piece that needs to be kept in contact with skin.”. One dog undershirt costs either US$50.99 or US$54.11, depending on how many are ordered. The company has an annual revenue of US$4,695,040.

Guillotines and undershirts?:inquisitive:

Publishing papers and research is also BIG business:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jun/27/profitable-business-scientific-publishing-bad-for-science


The core of Elsevier’s operation is in scientific journals, the weekly or monthly publications in which scientists share their results. Despite the narrow audience, scientific publishing is a remarkably big business. With total global revenues of more than £19bn, it weighs in somewhere between the recording and the film industries in size, but it is far more profitable. In 2010, Elsevier’s scientific publishing arm reported profits of £724m on just over £2bn in revenue. It was a 36% margin – higher than Apple, Google, or Amazon posted that year.

Publishers are now wound so tightly around the various organs of the scientific body that no single effort has been able to dislodge them. In a 2015 report, an information scientist from the University of Montreal, Vincent Larivière, showed that Elsevier owned 24% of the scientific journal market, while Maxwell’s old partners Springer, and his crosstown rivals Wiley-Blackwell, controlled about another 12% each. These three companies accounted for half the market. (An Elsevier representative familiar with the report told me that by their own estimate they publish only 16% of the scientific literature.)

Another article on the lucritive publishing industry:

https://www.molbiolcell.org/doi/10.1091/mbc.E19-03-0147


The profits of major commercial publishers are astonishing. As a whole, the industry made more than $10 billion in 2015, with profits for the largest players, such as Elsevier, Springer, Taylor & Francis, and Wiley, exceeding 30%. Elsevier alone, a publicly held company and the world’s largest for-profit academic publisher, revealed revenues in its 2018 Annual Report of $3.2 billion for its science/technology/medical branches with an operating profit of $1.2 billion. This profit margin of almost 38% increases to more than 40% when we look at the journals division by itself, which posted earnings of $1.75 billion and estimated profits of $737 million. In other words, every time we pay a $3000 article processing charge, only $1800 supports the publishing process, while the remaining $1200 goes directly to Elsevier shareholders.

A bit more later......

[ReluctantSamurai]

One explanation of why a 50% increase in transmissibility is worse than a 50% increase in lethality:

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1343567425107881986

[Pannonian]

One explanation of why a 50% increase in transmissibility is worse than a 50% increase in lethality:

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1343567425107881986

Watch playthroughs of Plague Inc. Transmission is everything.

[rory_20_uk]

Here we should distinguish between commercial research and public or university-funded basic research - right? Did anyone ever get rich taking NIH grants?

In abstract I suppose, but if you could find some contras on Twitter or the blogs or the academic sites to parse...

Generally the two are not as clearly delineated as you might wish - if the unit is 80% Pharma paid for is research on the other 20% independant?

~:smoking:

[Montmorency]

I acknowledge that biotech, pharmaceuticals, lab materials, etc. are big industries, I just doubt that many individual scientists receiving public or academic grants for research in virology have the prospect of raking in big bucks, let alone that their research is driven by personal financial considerations. It smacks too much of the old canard that climate researchers are only in it for emoluments from Big Clean Energy.


Generally the two are not as clearly delineated as you might wish - if the unit is 80% Pharma paid for is research on the other 20% independant?

~:smoking:

For instance, this is a hint at higher-level institutional incentives, but it doesn't imply anything as to whether scientists want to participate in research or pursue personal interests, or generate lucrative compensation opportunities for themselves. Especially if the latter such opportunities are not particularly available beneath management-level.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I just doubt that many individual scientists receiving public or academic grants for research in virology have the prospect of raking in big bucks

They do if they secure patents for their work. One example:

https://thepatentprofessor.com/how-one-of-my-clients-earned-a-100-million-payout-from-his-medical-idea/

Now this guy was more of an inventor than a pure researcher, but it works the same. There are additional concerns when a scientist is working at a university and using government, or private money.

Dr. Baric, mentioned in Crandar's link, has these patents:

https://patents.justia.com/inventor/ralph-baric

So far, I've only found vague information on how much scientists make on a single patent, but it can be as much as $8 million...~:eek: Baric owns, or shares, 13 patents.

And then there's the speaking fees:

https://www.allamericanspeakers.com/category/Science-and-Technology/Science-and-Engineering

Just click on the $100k-$200k category....this is range an elite, or well known researcher would be in....:shrug:

It's not easy to find this info, dude....:laugh4:

[Montmorency]

Just click on the $100k-$200k category....this is range an elite, or well known researcher would be in....


One of my high school biology teachers was a young guy, a PhD, who quit working as a lab grunt because teaching paid better. Teaching.

I'm just suspicious of looking to the 1% of scientists to explain research trends.

(Incidentally, I looked up one of my HS physics teachers years ago and he held a couple patents, but I have no idea if they were worth squat.)


I just looked at your page for speakers. That was a not a great link to pick. Those are speaking fees. Who pulls in speaking fees? The category you're pointing out is on a tier with the likes of Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in that respect. Normal scientists don't make good money off speaking fees. Now we're not talking 1% but 0.01%. Two of the names in the $100K-200K category are:

Ray Kurzweil: Famous futurist and publisher of many best-selling popsci books.
Peter Thiel: Dude, holy shit, he's an actual megabillionaire, THAT Peter Thiel!

abaghaagha :dizzy2::dizzy2:

[ReluctantSamurai]

That was a not a great link to pick.


Normal scientists don't make good money off speaking fees. Now we're not talking 1% but 0.01%.

Well....for a fee....I could look harder.....:quiet:

:laugh4:

I can only apply a bit of forward logic here. If it wasn't profitable in some manner, you wouldn't hear scientists whining so loudly when their pet project comes under financial scrutiny. For the average researcher, making a breakthrough, or coming up with a new process means advancement. Getting your work published in a scientific journal means a significant increase in salary....:shrug:

[Pannonian]

Relating to the NYT's article about how the UK government is throwing money to their friends, a Tory-connected company is being paid £30 per head to provide school meals packages for a week. That's the company receiving £30 per head from the government, for which they've provided around £5 of food.

[Hooahguy]

I'm curious, has anyone here received the vaccine yet?

[Pannonian]

I'm curious, has anyone here received the vaccine yet?

A mate of mine has, as he's a carer who works with the elderly.

[Hooahguy]

Yeah a friend of mine is a microbiologist and he got his second dose last week. Mildly jealous but on the plus side he reports no side effects which is good.

[Idaho]

A friend of mine who works as a manager at the hospital got one. He wasn't going to as he thought the priority (rightly) should go to medics, even though his office was next to the corridor where the covid patients were wheeled in (and alas sometimes out). However he found out that they kept throwing away unused vaccines each day, and that the IT department who set up the schedule had put themselves at the top of the list...

[Idaho]

Yeah a friend of mine is a microbiologist and he got his second dose last week. Mildly jealous but on the plus side he reports no side effects which is good.

Is it just the Pfizer one there?

I am, completely irrationally and stupidly (especially for an anti patriot) would prefer the Oxford jab :laugh4:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Pfizer and Moderna versions both in use. Others seeking approval including a one-dose stable at normal fridge temps.

[Hooahguy]

Is it just the Pfizer one there?

I am, completely irrationally and stupidly (especially for an anti patriot) would prefer the Oxford jab :laugh4:
As said, both Pfizer and Moderna are being deployed here but he got the Pfizer one.

[Pannonian]

A friend of mine who works as a manager at the hospital got one. He wasn't going to as he thought the priority (rightly) should go to medics, even though his office was next to the corridor where the covid patients were wheeled in (and alas sometimes out). However he found out that they kept throwing away unused vaccines each day, and that the IT department who set up the schedule had put themselves at the top of the list...

Makes sense, as IT departments have to deal with viruses all the time. Has anyone checked if they are taking worming medicines as well? Goodness knows how they'll deal with Trojans though. Employ an Ithacan, perhaps.

[Gilrandir]

However he found out that they kept throwing away unused vaccines each day

Perhaps they knew something?
https://see.news/norway-23-dead-after-receiving-pfizer-biontech-vaccine/

[Idaho]

Perhaps they knew something?
https://see.news/norway-23-dead-after-receiving-pfizer-biontech-vaccine/

The first people to be vaccinated have been tens of thousands of extremely sick, old and vulnerable patients. It would be bizarre and alarming if a number of these people *didn't* die.

[Gilrandir]

The first people to be vaccinated have been tens of thousands of extremely sick, old and vulnerable patients. It would be bizarre and alarming if a number of these people *didn't* die.

So if they hadn't been vaccinated they wouldn't have died?

[rory_20_uk]

So if they hadn't been vaccinated they wouldn't have died?

Chances are they'd die either way of non Covid-19 related things as y'know they are very old and frail.

Given the resource is so limited I have no idea why it is being wasted on the elderly and frail. Give to all key workers first (of which I am not one) and this lot can continue to isolate - as can I.

~:smoking:

[Montmorency]

Perhaps they knew something?
https://see.news/norway-23-dead-after-receiving-pfizer-biontech-vaccine/

100% of all patients who receive vaccine will die.


Chances are they'd die either way of non Covid-19 related things as y'know they are very old and frail.

Given the resource is so limited I have no idea why it is being wasted on the elderly and frail. Give to all key workers first (of which I am not one) and this lot can continue to isolate - as can I.

~:smoking:

Israel has like 1/3 of its population dosed already.

My understanding is that there is a consensus that, to the extent delivery is prioritized, the top priority should be the most vulnerable elderly - because they're the ones actually dying at the highest rates and in the greatest numbers. But frontline healthcare workers have been put on the same tier, or a step below, in part because of their proximity to the former population.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

So if they hadn't been vaccinated they wouldn't have died?

Well, if we are going to be COMPLETELY accurate in that vein the answer is, of course, no. Life has been fatal in all confirmable instances thus far.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Given the resource is so limited I have no idea why it is being wasted on the elderly and frail. Give to all key workers first (of which I am not one) and this lot can continue to isolate - as can I.

I think "wasted" is a bit harsh, but agree that essential workers like medical personnel and anyone in contact with the general public should be at the top of the list.


100% of all patients who receive vaccine will die.

Oh no! QAnon has come to The Org.........:laugh4:

[Idaho]

Israel has like 1/3 of its population dosed already.
If you exclude all those that Israel deems non human. There are large swathes of the population that haven't been vaccinated, and probably never will be.

[Furunculus]

A friend of mine who works as a manager at the hospital got one. He wasn't going to as he thought the priority (rightly) should go to medics, even though his office was next to the corridor where the covid patients were wheeled in (and alas sometimes out). However he found out that they kept throwing away unused vaccines each day, and that the IT department who set up the schedule had put themselves at the top of the list...

i had first dose of the phizer vaccine yesterday.

not because I'm any kind of health prioity, or work in any frontline profession, but rather becuase my wife works in the nhs and was basically invited to apply for unused vaccination slots that would otherwise be wasted.

[ReluctantSamurai]

A bit of detailed information on the three new SARS-2 variants:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/01/coronavirus-evolving-same-mutations-around-world/617721/


In addition to sharing certain mutations, though, these variants simply have a large number of mutations, some unique to each variant. Gaining a whole suite of mutations quickly should be a very uncommon event. But with the virus so widespread right now, very uncommon events will happen—and will happen more than once. The usual two-per-month mutation rate may undersell how the coronavirus can mutate in unusual situations.

What is unusual about these three variants is that they also have an additional constellation of other mutations in other parts of the virus. A change in a variant’s behavior, such as increased transmissibility, is probably “due to not just one mutation, but multiple mutations,” says Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist at the University of Bern.

But the South Africa and Brazil variants might have an additional advantage. A recent study suggests that viruses with the E484K mutation might be better at evading antibodies (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.31.425021v1) from the blood plasma of recovered COVID-19 patients. Some viruses with this mutation could become a little better at reinfecting people or even infecting vaccinated people.

An interesting way of putting it:


The variants may have evolved in immunocompromised patients who were infected with the virus for months. Normally, Hodcroft says, “your immune system is going to town on it. It’s really trying to beat it up.” But immunocompromised patients mount weaker immune responses. “It becomes almost like a training course for how to live with the human immune system,” she says. That may be why these variants have so many new mutations at once, as if a year or two of evolution has been compressed into months. This is probably quite rare, but with tens of millions of infections around the globe, rare things will show up.

What happens when variants graduate from their "training course"?....:inquisitive:

[ReluctantSamurai]

The number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the United States, this past year, has now surpassed the number of American deaths that occurred during WWII over the course of four years.....:shame:

[Hooahguy]

Bad news (https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/politics/biden-covid-vaccination-trump/index.html) on the government response front:


Sources with direct knowledge of the new administration's Covid-related work told CNN one of the biggest shocks that the Biden team had to digest during the transition period was what they saw as a complete lack of a vaccine distribution strategy under former President Donald Trump, even weeks after multiple vaccines were approved for use in the United States.
"There is nothing for us to rework. We are going to have to build everything from scratch," one source said.

Another source described the moment that it became clear the Biden administration would have to essentially start from "square one" because there simply was no plan as: "Wow, just further affirmation of complete incompetence."

:wall:

[rory_20_uk]

The number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the United States, this past year, has now surpassed the number of American deaths that occurred during WWII over the course of four years.....:shame:

Wow you guys were late for that one!


Bad news (https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/politics/biden-covid-vaccination-trump/index.html) on the government response front:

:wall:

With Mike "Prayer solves AIDS" Pence in charge I doubt many are surprised... and to play devil's advocate if things were this bad with a good Federal plan there's no hope. Now with Faucci et al able to do their jobs and a boss prepared to back them things hopefully will start to improve quickly (vaccinations if not the death rate).

Who knows? This disaster might require long term Federal medical assistance available to all... Welcome to the 20th Century and the Developed world!

~:smoking:

[edyzmedieval]

On the 9th of March I will personally mark first year since we got into lockdown, and at the current rate of transmission and how things are shaping up, even with vaccines, I do not expect this to be over by the end of 2021.

There's too many cases, transmission is going rampant even with lockdowns - UK what in the world is going on? - it's a bit amiss for me on how we're going to solve this in 2021.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Wow you guys were late for that one!

Not sure what that means~:confused: The total death toll for America in WWII was 405,399 (number varies slightly depending on source). The day I posted, the number of recorded deaths due to COVID-19, surpassed that....



Welcome to the 20th Century and the Developed world!

The 20th Century?

[Furunculus]

Seems that the EU is getting knickers a'twist over the Astra-Zeneca vaccine deliveries:

To-wit, they are are not fast enough.
Pfizer-Biontech also slowed deliveries last week, but apparently there is something especially badly this time, such as to merit super drastic response...

**Ponders on exactly how much of the institutional/managerial/technical expertise employed by the EMA(UK) decided to take up an exciting new opportunity in the EMA(NL)...?**

Remember, this crisis comes down to a:
a) delayed vaccine rollout following late approval
b) vaccine EMA hasn't even certified yet

Me suspects this is more political camoflage for what is very evident on the our world in data graph on vaccine rollout.

[Pannonian]

Seems that the EU is getting knickers a'twist over the Astra-Zeneca vaccine deliveries:

To-wit, they are are not fast enough.
Pfizer-Biontech also slowed deliveries last week, but apparently there is something especially badly this time, such as to merit super drastic response...

**Ponders on exactly how much of the institutional/managerial/technical expertise employed by the EMA(UK) decided to take up an exciting new opportunity in the EMA(NL)...?**

Remember, this crisis comes down to a:
a) delayed vaccine rollout following late approval
b) vaccine EMA hasn't even certified yet

Me suspects this is more political camoflage for what is very evident on the our world in data graph on vaccine rollout.

Are you suggesting that this is one of the benefits of Brexit?

[Furunculus]

More precisely - I'd suggest this might be an accidental dis-benefit of brexit, insomuch as I have always suspected that neither the finance or the medicines authority (spain and netherlands respectively), will have been operating at %100 of previous capacity/capability since their move from the UK. "UK cannot have the benefits of EU membership without the responsibilities!"...

The question is: How much less than %100?

But certainly - over and above this - the physical/emotional/political remove of the EU leaves it in a poor place to:
a) coordinate emergency responses to pubic health issues.
b) take the flak for a bungled response in a politically sustainable way.

Legitimacy = Accountability + Representation


or in the words of someone more notable than my humble self:
https://twitter.com/James7Holland/status/1354555518413639680

[Furunculus]

https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/01/26/news/interview_pascal_soriot_ceo_astrazeneca_coronavirus_covid_vaccines-284349628/

#ClassicDom ? :D

[rory_20_uk]

More precisely - I'd suggest this might be an accidental dis-benefit of brexit, insomuch as I have always suspected that neither the finance or the medicines authority (spain and netherlands respectively), will have been operating at %100 of previous capacity/capability since their move from the UK. "UK cannot have the benefits of EU membership without the responsibilities!"...

The question is: How much less than %100?

But certainly - over and above this - the physical/emotional/political remove of the EU leaves it in a poor place to:
a) coordinate emergency responses to pubic health issues.
b) take the flak for a bungled response in a politically sustainable way.

Legitimacy = Accountability + Representation

Most national Regulatory agencies have grown since the EMA was created. Oh yes, all were to shrink with efficiencies from centralisation but some how the numbers increased with liaison officers added to help the process. And as to the process, there's one country chosen as the rapporteur and another as the co-rapporteur who review all the data and report to the others. Given this system has been going for years they should be used to reviewing the data. Having said that, some counties are known as being better or worse than others, and some have more experience with certain therapy areas or types of products. Whilst moving offices might have caused issue, the Oxford/AZ vaccine has now been given to millions of people and the real world data is probably greater than than in the data packages - yet still the EMA dithers! The FDA stated that any vaccine that works over 50% of the time is one that they'd licence so I am increasingly amazed at how much time they are wasting. No, the vaccine is not a silver bullet but will definitely help.

If the EU appears to be the theoretical, bureaucratic, idealistic ivory tower, Israel is their usual bunch of selfish bastards - starting to vaccinate teenagers whilst stating they've no obligation to help do anything over the lands they've illegally taken. At least they're consistent.

~:smoking:

[Furunculus]

Most national Regulatory agencies have grown since the EMA was created. Oh yes, all were to shrink with efficiencies from centralisation but some how the numbers increased with liaison officers added to help the process. And as to the process, there's one country chosen as the rapporteur and another as the co-rapporteur who review all the data and report to the others. Given this system has been going for years they should be used to reviewing the data. Having said that, some counties are known as being better or worse than others, and some have more experience with certain therapy areas or types of products. Whilst moving offices might have caused issue, the Oxford/AZ vaccine has now been given to millions of people and the real world data is probably greater than than in the data packages - yet still the EMA dithers! The FDA stated that any vaccine that works over 50% of the time is one that they'd licence so I am increasingly amazed at how much time they are wasting. No, the vaccine is not a silver bullet but will definitely help.

~:smoking:

thank you for explaining.

just to confirm:
you're suggesting that regardless of how many did or didn't choose to relocate to EMA(NL) - rather than take up an exciting new opportunity at the newly minted BMA(UK) - the expertise and competence exists at the state level to assess efficacy and manage integration into national health systems?

fine if so (happy to accept that), but one is compelled to ask: what does the EMA do then - other than get in the way?

[rory_20_uk]

thank you for explaining.

just to confirm:
you're suggesting that regardless of how many did or didn't choose to relocate to EMA(NL) - rather than take up an exciting new opportunity at the newly minted BMA(UK) - the expertise and competence exists at the state level to assess efficacy and manage integration into national health systems?

fine if so (happy to accept that), but one is compelled to ask: what does the EMA do then - other than get in the way?

The MHRA was there before the EMA, and continues to be there afterwards. Working in the UK in Pharma we always interacted with the MHRA for all matters; when I was last involved in the registering of a new drug in Europe we again had dealings with the country regulatory authorities rather than the EMA.

The EMA doubtlessly caused a drop in efficiency (you can't move a massive department without any change) but there are 27 bodies that have continued to have independent function.

I think that there are useful functions the EMA does - such as having a unified licence - but what role the staff have beyond some ways of working I do not know. bureaucracies can always create meetings, KPIs, and other things that frankly could be done without. But then I work in Medical Affairs and so might not see all the added value that all the EMA staff add.

~:smoking:

[Montmorency]

I should have done this before, but Samurai, here are some harsh expert criticisms of the NYMag piece on potential artificial origins of the virus. Notable points being the author's lack of self-admitted subject-matter knowledge, serious errors in scientific fact, and overall absence of evidence toward any of his points or an accounting of competing theories that hold the consensus.
https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1346232195430510592
https://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1346117198381797379

[ReluctantSamurai]

I wouldn't be qualified to speak on scientific fact. That there were errors in the article isn't surprising to me. What I am surprised at is the "how dare you" attitude of scientists when someone outside the field attempts criticism even if some of it is misguided or contains errors. I only took the piece to mean that it was possible for SARS-CoV-2 to have escaped a lab, not probable. And no scientific study that I am aware of (and admittedly that isn't saying much) has proved that it hasn't.

In any case, my main takeaway from the article had nothing to do with the origins of SARS-CoV-2, but the mega-money involved in scientific research, both from government and industry (which BTW, neither of the sources you quoted, addressed). That the prospect of making millions/billions of dollars from research is as large a driving force (or larger) than scientific curiosity/need, is almost not arguable, IMHO. At least with Big Pharma, the research being done is going to have some practical application, though many times that turns out to be a self-serving path to profit regardless the human cost.

Three key statements from the article that scientists are loathe to discuss, IMHO:

-“It is unethical to place so many members of the public at risk and then consult only scientists — or, even worse, just a small subset of scientists — and exclude others from the decision-making and oversight process.”

-Gain-of-function experiments “have done almost nothing to improve our preparedness for pandemics,” he said, “yet they risked creating an accidental pandemic.” [Mark Lipsitch, epidemiologist and Professor in the Department of Epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health]

-Daszak was outraged (“I am not trained as a private detective”), and again he fought back. He was reluctant to give up his own secrets, too. “Conspiracy-theory outlets and politically motivated organizations have made Freedom of Information Act requests on our grants and all of our letters and emails to the NIH,” he told Nature. (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02473-4) “[B]We don’t think it’s fair that we should have to reveal everything we do.”

If that last statement doesn't give you pause for some deep thought, I don't know what will. Experiments that have the potential to exterminate the human race, at the worst, but "it's not fair that we should have to reveal everything we do." Jeezus....:inquisitive:

As unethical as Big Pharma can be, what about the scientific community themselves? Any rational person, I think, would consider the reconstitution of the H1N1 that caused the 1918 pandemic, for any purpose, as insanity...:shrug:

Lab accidents do happen despite the significant protocols in place to prevent them. The virus for the 1918 pandemic was the product of a "perfect storm" of micro-biology. It had characteristics never before seen, and never seen since....that's why 50 million people or more died. What possible scientific benefits are to be gained from recreating it (exactly as it was in 1918) in the lab? Are they worth the risk, no matter how small, that an accident could cause a recurrence of the most deadly pandemic in modern history? Which, BTW, given that our global connectivity today is so much higher than it was then, that the expected death toll would be significantly higher than in 1918.

So...those two scientists may very well be correct in their scientific analysis of the article, but they exhibit short-comings of their own.

[Montmorency]

Like I said, I can potentially see both sides of an argument around GOF research, but in this case a writer with no scientific training wrote a longform essay on how their intuition told them, based on no evidence and without examining counter-evidence, that SARS-2 was a GOF experiment, that GOF scientists are shady and self-interested. After all, there is a widespread scientific consensus that there is no reason to believe SARS-2 is artificial in any way, and there are expert takedowns of this particular article as not just factually wrong on basic and important matters, but also dishonestly framed...

I don't think it's indignation at a non-scientist poking their noses in, which after all is almost the entirety of science journalism, and I think we should defer to the criticisms of this one writer/article.

If you're looking for question-raising about GOF, there are perhaps more credible explorations to be found, such as this one (https://link.springer.com/protocol/10.1007/978-1-4939-8678-1_29) from an author/researcher referenced in the NYMag piece.

[Montmorency]

9 Top N.Y. Health Officials Have Quit as Cuomo Scorns Expertise (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/01/nyregion/cuomo-health-department-officials-quit.html)
“When I say ‘experts’ in air quotes, it sounds like I’m saying I don’t really trust the experts,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said of pandemic policies. “Because I don’t.”


The troubled rollout came after Mr. Cuomo declined to use the longstanding vaccination plans that the State Department of Health had developed in recent years in coordination with local health departments. Mr. Cuomo instead adopted an approach that relied on large hospital systems to coordinate vaccinations not only of their own staffs, but also of much of the population.

In recent weeks, the governor has repeatedly made it clear that he believed he had no choice but to seize more control over pandemic policy from state and local public health officials, who he said had no understanding of how to conduct a real-world, large-scale operation like vaccinations. After early problems, in which relatively few doses were being administered, the pace of vaccinations has picked up and New York is now roughly 20th in the nation in percentage of residents who have received at least one vaccine dose.

“When I say ‘experts’ in air quotes, it sounds like I’m saying I don’t really trust the experts,” Mr. Cuomo said at a news conference on Friday, referring to scientific expertise at all levels of government during the pandemic. “Because I don’t. Because I don’t.”

In the fall, Mr. Cuomo shelved vaccine distribution plans that top state health officials had been drawing up, one person with knowledge of the decision said. The plans had relied in part on years of preparations at the local level — an outgrowth of bioterrorism fears following Sept. 11 — and on experience dispensing vaccine through county health departments during the H1N1 pandemic in 2009. As a result, local officials across the state complained that their efforts to vaccinate were undercut by the Cuomo plan.
[...]
But elements of the state’s approach hindered the rollout, New York City officials contended.

“Extensive red tape and unnecessary rigidity over who we could vaccinate and when — all with the looming threat of millions of dollars in punitive fines — made an extraordinarily difficult task all the more challenging in those first initial weeks of the rollout,” said Avery Cohen, a spokeswoman for Mayor de Blasio.

In his own planning for the vaccine rollout, Mr. Cuomo spoke with hospital executives, outside consultants and a top hospital lobbyist in closed-door meetings. In December, Mr. Cuomo announced that the state would rely on large hospital systems as “hubs” to coordinate vaccinations, not simply for their own staff but also for ordinary New Yorkers.

The state designated as a regional vaccination hub in New York City not the city’s 6,000-person Health Department, but rather the Greater New York Hospital Association, a trade group with a multimillion-dollar lobbying arm that had been a major donor to the governor’s causes.

The approach included narrow eligibility rules and suffered from a lack of urgency by some hospitals. That led to fewer doses being administered in the early weeks, followed by abrupt shifts in policy that created a kind of free-for-all among those searching for vaccine appointments, according to interviews with more than two dozen current and former health officials, county leaders, vaccination experts and elected officials.

After opening eligibility to many more people, New York now quickly uses its weekly shipments of vaccine, not including doses sent to the state through a federal program for nursing homes, state data shows.

“We put together an operation where we used all the levers at our disposal to as quickly as possible vaccinate as many people as possible,” said Melissa DeRosa, the governor’s top aide, “and it obviously worked since we’re now oversubscribed and out of vaccine.”

Still, Dr. Denis Nash, a professor of epidemiology at the City University of New York and a former senior city health official, said that giving such a large share of doses directly to hospitals meant that the government lost control of the pace of vaccinations during the program’s first month.

“That was the bottleneck,” Dr. Nash said. “To put hospitals in charge of a public health initiative — for which they have no public health mandate, or the skills, experience or perspective to manage one — was a huge mistake, and I have no doubt that’s what introduced the delays.”

:disappointed:

In terms of the actual public-facing policy, still probably not as bad as Newsom.

[a completely inoffensive name]

In terms of the actual public-facing policy, still probably not as bad as Newsom.

Cuomo has his issues but imo the extreme wonky policies of California are what have made it one of the worst long term responses. You can't ask public health officials to have final say over policy.

CA was fucked the moment we were told there were 5 levels of restrictions, check daily so you can calculate if you need 25% of chairs ready for indoor seating or 50% or if they all need to be outdoors which is no longer allowed because outdoor seating became eating in a closed tent with gas heaters. Is purple worse than red? It doesn't matter cause any increase in the rate necessitates a lockdown until it goes back down, then we go into purple phase again unless it goes back up again, then back into another arbitrary long lockdown.

Merge Cuomo and Newsom and maybe you would get the perfect response. Stay the fuck home, practice these measures according to the experts and we will tell you when to reopen once we get enough people vaccinated.

[Montmorency]

Cuomo has his issues but imo the extreme wonky policies of California are what have made it one of the worst long term responses. You can't ask public health officials to have final say over policy.

CA was fucked the moment we were told there were 5 levels of restrictions, check daily so you can calculate if you need 25% of chairs ready for indoor seating or 50% or if they all need to be outdoors which is no longer allowed because outdoor seating became eating in a closed tent with gas heaters. Is purple worse than red? It doesn't matter cause any increase in the rate necessitates a lockdown until it goes back down, then we go into purple phase again unless it goes back up again, then back into another arbitrary long lockdown.

Merge Cuomo and Newsom and maybe you would get the perfect response. Stay the fuck home, practice these measures according to the experts and we will tell you when to reopen once we get enough people vaccinated.

I mean, I don't want to talk too much about Cuomo, like how he badly screwed the bed in March in the first place, how his cluster-targeting program in the fall was haphazard (compared to e.g. Japan's) and eventually given up on from what I can tell, how he's sleazy and self-interested and in bed with all types of lobbying groups, how his vendetta against de Blasio has consistently caused a mutual degradation in state and city responses from the beginning (including school openings), how we've only fully vaccinated like a half a million people out of 20 million...

Both Newsom and Cuomo went in hard on rigid and narrow priority lanes for vaccination, coupled with onerous regulations and fines against providers for not perfectly adhering to them, when other states tried to balance vulnerable groups and rapid administration.


They say states like Washington, Oregon, and Vermont have been best-governed, in terms of consistency and scientific rigor, and in terms of results, almost always keeping their indicators far below national averages.

:shrug:

Good thing national indicators are plummeting post-holidays; that should keep up, right?

[a completely inoffensive name]

They say states like Washington, Oregon, and Vermont have been best-governed, in terms of consistency and scientific rigor, and in terms of results, almost always keeping their indicators far below national averages.
Good thing national indicators are plummeting post-holidays; that should keep up, right?

Ca and NY really need better mechanisms for selecting politicians.

Watch out for the spike from SUper Bowl super-spreader events.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Good thing national indicators are plummeting post-holidays; that should keep up, right?

Maybe not:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/coronavirus-pandemic-brazil-variant/617891/


Data seemed to support the idea that herd immunity (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/) in Manaus was near. In Science (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6526/288/tab-pdf) this month, researchers mapped the virus’s takeover last year: In April, blood tests found that 4.8 percent of the city’s population had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. By June, the number was up to 52.5 percent. Since people who get infected do not always test positive for antibodies, the researchers estimated that by June about two-thirds of the city had been infected. By November, the estimate was about 76 percent. In The Lancet (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) this week, a team of Brazilian researchers noted that even if these estimates were off by a large margin, infection on this scale “should confer important population immunity to avoid a larger outbreak.” Indeed, it seemed to. The city was able to largely reopen and remain open throughout its winter with low levels of COVID-19 cases.

Yet now, the nightmare scenario is happening a second time. The situation defies expert expectations about how immunity would help protect the hardest-hit populations. By estimates of leading infectious-disease specialists, such as Anthony Fauci, when roughly 70 to 75 percent (https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/vinay-prasad/90445) of the population is immune, there can still be clusters of cases, but sustaining a large-scale outbreak becomes mathematically impossible. Still somehow, according to The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/01/27/coronavirus-brazil-variant-manaus/), hospitals in Manaus that had thought they were well prepared are now overwhelmed.

Several newsworthy variants exist, including those in the U.K., South Africa, and California. (So it’s easy to lose track, as much alarm has been raised over their various mutations.) But the variant in Brazil, known as the P.1 (or B.1.1.248) lineage, has a potent combination of mutations. Not only does this variant seem to be more transmissible; its lineage (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/01/coronavirus-mutations-variants/617694/) carries mutations that help it escape (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.18.427166v1) the antibodies that we develop in response to older lineages of the coronavirus. That is, it at least has a capacity (https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202101.0132/v1) to infect people who have already recovered from COVID-19, even if their defenses protect them against other versions of the virus. One case of reinfection with this new lineage has already been documented (https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202101.0132/v1), even though very little genomic sequencing is being done.

The coming year could be a story of two worlds undermining each other. Certain countries will approach herd immunity by vaccinating almost every citizen. Other countries could see mass casualties and catastrophic waves of reinfection—potentially with variants that evolved in response to the immunity conferred by the very vaccines to which these populations do not have access. In the process, these hot spots themselves will facilitate rapid evolution, giving rise to even more variants that could make the vaccinated populations susceptible to disease once again. In a recursive loop, the virus could come back to haunt the vaccinated, leading to new surges and lockdowns in coming years. The countries that hoard the vaccine without a plan to help others do so at their own peril.

And it's already present in the US:

https://www.koco.com/article/ap-brazilian-covid-19-variant-detected-in-oklahoma/35435104

[a completely inoffensive name]

Maybe not:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/coronavirus-pandemic-brazil-variant/617891/



And it's already present in the US:

https://www.koco.com/article/ap-brazilian-covid-19-variant-detected-in-oklahoma/35435104

Good news is that current vaccines also seem to be highly effective against the new variants as well.

[ReluctantSamurai]

From what I can see, "highly effective" may be overstating things a bit. Granted, a reduction from 90-95% efficacy initially claimed is still a huge plus, but if the pandemic isn't brought under control world-wide, vaccines may very well contribute to the emergence of new SARS-2 variants by stressing the virus to counter them, while rampant pandemic is still happening.

There's still a lot to be understood yet, and information is completely in flux, but this gives a good general overview of the various vaccines:

https://absolutelymaybe.plos.org/2021/01/31/variants-3-new-covid-vaccines-and-contested-efficacy-claims-a-month-of-seismic-shifts-and-confusion/#variants

The biggest concern, as far as I can see, is the Brazilian variant ( P.1 or B.1.1.248) which is showing, in studies to this point, not only increased transmissability, but the ability to re-infect those who've already had a previous SARS-2 infection from a different variant (which the Atlantic article above highlights).

The vaccines are the way forward, but we aren't there yet, especially if we don't start getting the populations of the poorer countries done.

[rory_20_uk]

In the UK there seems to be a large number in the BAME "community" that don't want to take it and of course their rights are more important than the fact if they're not treated parts of the country won't get herd immunity.

Treating everyone is a laudable end goal, but failing that better quarantine rules are required - such as in-airport testing and refusing boarding to anyone who isn't found to be negative. After all the list of diseases we have merely excluded from the developed world is much longer than those we have completely eradicated.

~:smoking:

[Montmorency]

In the UK there seems to be a large number in the BAME "community" that don't want to take it and of course their rights are more important than the fact if they're not treated parts of the country won't get herd immunity.

Skepticism about the medical establishment among marginalized groups is at least understandable (http://wesleyanargus.com/2021/02/11/what-vaccine-hesitancy-among-bame-communities-tells-us/) - less so are the similar or even lower polling results I can find for vaccine hesitancy among the Czech (https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/06/coronavirus-why-are-czechs-among-europe-s-most-sceptical-when-it-comes-to-vaccines), Polish (https://www.dw.com/en/anti-vaccine-sentiment-rife-in-poland/a-56100878), or Dutch (https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/why-are-so-many-people-in-the-netherlands-opposed-to-a-covid-vaccine/).

Admittedly, I do have a higher degree of trust in pharmaceuticals when it comes to vaccines than might be strictly justified by my personal level of inquiry (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0022146520986118) into any given platform, but I'm satisfied resting on the track record in the domain; the success or failure of a vaccine is almost certain to be a very visible thing, at scale.

Glass half full, most expressed vaccine hesitancy is probably soft and reflexive, liable to erode over the months. I think we've already been seeing this effect in American polling since December.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Well, it seems the media darling from April/May of last year, turns out to be a political whore after all:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/18/cuomo-gate-nixonian-scandal-nursing-homes

And he's doubling down in an effort to stay in control of the situation:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/17/politics/cuomo-ron-kim-nursing-home/index.html

It will be interesting to see how Democrats respond to skullduggery from one of their own.....:creep:

[Hooahguy]

Something interesting which I've seen making the rounds online is people recounting when they realized that Covid was going to be a big deal. I remember reading in very early January 2020 about hospitals being set up in Wuhan and the quarantine going on but I didn't really think it would be a serious problem here. Even seeing what was going on in Italy I didn't take it as seriously as I probably should have. When the first few cases popped up in the US I thought it would be contained. Definitely was some denial going on then. Only in mid-March when everything started shutting down did I have that "oh damn" moment. I brought my laptop home from work on March 17 and have been back in the office only once since then. Crazy.

On the vaccine front, my area opened up vaccines for my category last week, but registration is such a :daisy:show that trying to get an appointment is notoriously difficult. The website frequently crashes despite claiming to anticipate demand.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Had a [shivers] moment reading a book yesterday. Was a Dave Weber and company book on Space kingdom of Manticore in his "honorverse." In it, it recounts how the Manticore colony lost 60% of its first settlers population to a pandemic during the early days after settlement...to a form of coronavirus...in a book published in 2013.

Yeesh.

[Montmorency]

corovavirus

Cowpox?

[Montmorency]

Cowpox?

Because corova means cow.



American military Keynesianism juxtaposed with deteriorated state capacity
https://newrepublic.com/article/161517/troops-leading-vaccination-effort


New York City’s Department of Sanitation, which has a very important job (that it has traditionally managed to do fairly well), is funded through the municipal budget, which nearly always shrinks in a crisis. The governor had a wing of the armed forces at his disposal, paid for (for the most part) by the money-printing, deficit-spending federal government. If we agree that the state is responsible for picking up the trash, and the department assigned that responsibility is deprived of the resources necessary to perform that function, then, yes, sure, send in the arm of the state that is, in the United States, traditionally completely immune from austerian pressures to do it, instead. It may be demeaning to the National Guard’s officers and a poor use of resources, but this is how we’ve decided to organize our society.

For almost a year now, the federal government has been picking up all or most of the tab for states to deploy the National Guard to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic. Upon taking office, President Joe Biden quickly signed an executive order fully federalizing the cost of pandemic-related National Guard deployments. Now the National Guard is posted just a short walk away from where I write this, distributing and even administering Covid-19 vaccines at one of a few mass vaccination sites that have been set up around New York City and state. Active-duty military personnel have been deployed to federal vaccination sites across the country, with more troops on the way this month.

It’s not entirely clear why this is the military’s responsibility. America is a rich nation with a robust public and private health infrastructure. We might have chosen, at some point, to create a reserve force of doctors and nurses who could be called up to help administer a national vaccine program. (The Affordable Care Act was actually supposed to create such a force: a “Ready Reserve” corps of the U.S. Public Health Service’s Commissioned Corps that could be called up in emergencies. It just didn’t happen, because Congress forgot to include a way to pay the physicians, nurses, pharmacists, and other medical professionals that would serve in that reserve corps. Congress only got around to fixing the problem last year, midway through the pandemic.) Or we even could have tried building public health systems capable of doing a mass vaccination campaign without the need for a uniformed service at all. Israel’s lauded vaccine rollout depended on its network of community health organizations. The United Kingdom, relying on its National Health Service, is outpacing the rest of Europe in vaccine delivery. But we don’t have a national health care system. We have the National Guard and the Defense Department.

To determine how the military ended up so central to our vaccine distribution plan, it helps juxtapose two seemingly unrelated facts: Last week, the Biden administration carried out airstrikes in Syria without congressional approval, and the White House announced that the vice president would not overrule a hired parliamentarian’s determination that a $15 federal minimum wage could not be included in the Covid-19 relief package currently moving through Congress.

In making her decision, the parliamentarian apparently considered the fact that the Congressional Budget Office had previously determined that raising the minimum wage would increase the federal budget deficit by $54 billion. The CBO did not score the airstrikes.


This perverse misallocation of resources does lead to some morbidly funny outcomes. What is the National Guard doing, across the country, besides helping with vaccination? As Stars and Stripes writes: “Some of the coronavirus missions have included working in food banks, manning testing sites, helping process unemployment benefits and distributing personal protective equipment.” In other words, the National Guard was simply doing various essential tasks the pandemic revealed our state was too broken to handle. Our unemployment insurance system is so dysfunctional that it needed troops to help administer it. The military is state-building in the U.S., after the nation gradually, over a generation, toppled its own government.

Perhaps, with this dysfunctional political system, and a political class unable to shake its addiction to militarism, this is the best we can do. Naomi Klein likes to talk about the possibility of recreating something like the Civilian Conservation Corps, to address climate catastrophe and give meaningful work to young people whose lives have been disrupted by the pandemic. It’s a great and inspiring idea. Maybe make it a Noncivilian Conservation Corps and there will be room for it in Joe Biden’s next budget. Biden has promised to veto a Medicare for All program, even if it manages to pass Congress, citing the expense. But I’m sure the Pentagon could find funding for a pilot program to send F-35s full of camo-clad Troop Doctors throughout the country to treat civilians at (local economy–boosting!) military clinics. It already happens to be the case that one plank of our government’s plan to reduce carbon emissions is to have the military spend a growing portion of its massive budget on building up the clean energy sector. Maybe political opposition to the Green New Deal would lessen if someone puts the word “Operation:” in front of it.

If the military is the only arm of the government that seems to understand there is practically no limit to what the U.S. can spend, the rest of us might as well start getting a little more out of it.

Reminds me of an anecdote from the collapse of the Roman empire I once encountered. The garrison of a border fort came to receive its supply/relief columns more and more sporadically, until one day they stopped coming at all. Communications were terminated, orders stopped being given and followed. Eventually, the legionnaires abandoned their post and blended into the neighboring farming communities. The survival of the country as a political unit (let alone empire/hegemony) probably really is closely linked to the continuing robustness of our armed forces, perverse as it may be.

[Hooahguy]

After weeks of trying, I finally managed to snag a vaccine appointment! :bounce:

[Montmorency]

After weeks of trying, I finally managed to snag a vaccine appointment! :bounce:

Guess I'll be one of the last in line.

https://i.imgur.com/hHqu0AF.jpg

[Hooahguy]

Guess I'll be one of the last in line.


In your state I know a number of folk including my brother who have been able to get vaccinated by waiting at clinics for no-shows. Could be worth a try if you were so inclined.

[Montmorency]

In January I'm pretty sure this practice was proscribed by the state government, but maybe they introduced leniency to the protocols since then.

[a completely inoffensive name]

In January I'm pretty sure this practice was proscribed by the state government, but maybe they introduced leniency to the protocols since then.

I wouldn't worry that much anyway. We are hitting 3 mil doses a day and still rising. I expect people in your group to start getting their first shots by May.

[Montmorency]

The early data (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fewer-black-americans-are-getting-the-covid-19-vaccine-no-its-not-hesitancy/?ex_cid=biden-approval) we have on vaccination rates is incomplete, but one fact is particularly alarming: Black Americans are getting vaccinated at a much slower rate than their white counterparts. This is troubling given how hard the pandemic has hit Black Americans.

But it’s also concerning because people often misunderstand why the rate is lower. Many are quick to point to a distrust of the medical community, as Black people do have a long history of being ignored or actively mistreated by health care professionals in the U.S. — most notably, in the infamous 40-year-long Tuskegee study, which denied Black men treatment for syphilis so researchers could track the natural progression of the disease. But a recent Pew survey challenges the idea that Black Americans are hesitant to get vaccinated: A majority of Black adults (61 percent) told Pew that they either planned to get a COVID-19 vaccine or have already gotten one, a sharp uptick from the 42 percent who said in November that they planned to get vaccinated.

And this reflects what health experts have told me about this issue. They don’t really think distrust of the vaccine explains the large gaps we’re seeing in vaccination rates. What’s more, blaming the gap wholly on distrust is dangerous because it puts the onus on Black Americans around vaccinations and distracts us from the real reasons why the inoculation rate is lower. “The experience of Black Americans within the U.S. health care system has been extremely troubled to say the least,” said Sean Dickson, the director of health policy at the West Health Policy Center. “But we don’t want to rely on the narrative that Black people aren’t willing to get the vaccine,” he said, adding that he thought the real issue was the lack of investment in vaccine distribution in Black communities.

:creep:


I wouldn't worry that much anyway. We are hitting 3 mil doses a day and still rising. I expect people in your group to start getting their first shots by May.

You're all more optimistic than the government certainly.

[a completely inoffensive name]

You're all more optimistic than the government certainly.
We are going to hit the 100 million dose goal about 60 days into Biden's term. There is much to be optimistic about.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The ramp up has started in earnest. While supply and transport has been the issue to date, we are rapidly approaching a time when reticence will be the only remaining obstacle.

Interestingly, there are reports that Trump is angered that he is not receiving lots of credit for the vaccination success to date (despite Geraldo's effort to name one for him). I just shook my head. Trump could have known the likely approval dates, ramped up FEMA centers for day one of vaccine release, and then made I speech saying go get vaccinated. Instead he fought the election results. What a putz.

[Hooahguy]

The ramp up has started in earnest. While supply and transport has been the issue to date, we are rapidly approaching a time when reticence will be the only remaining obstacle.

Interestingly, there are reports that Trump is angered that he is not receiving lots of credit for the vaccination success to date (despite Geraldo's effort to name one for him). I just shook my head. Trump could have known the likely approval dates, ramped up FEMA centers for day one of vaccine release, and then made I speech saying go get vaccinated. Instead he fought the election results. What a putz.
This is my frustration as well. He could have publicly gotten the vaccine, but decided to get it in secret. But its Biden's fault that so many Republicans arent willing to get the shot?

Anyways I got my first shot of the Moderna vaccine today. Not expecting any serious side effects for this one, but people tell me that the second shot is a doozy.

Edit: so far, just a sore arm. Not too bad.

[spmetla]

I got my first shot of Moderna last Sunday, didn't get any side effects. Heard the same about the second shot.

[Furunculus]

Wifey and I had the second shot of pfizer over a week ago.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Tomorrow CA is allowing people under 65 and/or healthcare/teachers to schedule a vaccine. But only for those with sever health complications.

I'll probably be staying in my bunker until sometime in May.

[Montmorency]

Mindbending graph (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/03/12/976172586/little-difference-in-vaccine-hesitancy-among-white-and-black-americans-poll-find).

https://i.imgur.com/gcAHxTQ.jpg


Of course everything should be crossreferenced against aggregates when possible, but it's wild to try to interpret this finding that white and black Americans have roughly the same willingness to receive vaccination, as well even as roughly the same rate of inoculation so far. Hard to square with the disparity in some of the White/White-implicit crosstabs in the same poll, as well as reporting on racial inequity on inoculation in practice.



We are going to hit the 100 million dose goal about 60 days into Biden's term. There is much to be optimistic about.

Joe Biden thinks every adult ought to be offered the vaccine by the end of May, so we have a fine opportunity to judge between the feds and the state on realism.

Trivia: A year ago, New York and California had the same number of nursing home residents (~100K), even though California is about twice as populous.

[Montmorency]

Eyecatching table of national orders of Chinese vaccines (https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/the-logic-of-chinas-vaccine-diplomacy/).

24593

Essay (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/03/how-the-west-lost-covid-19.html) that purports to summarize the "near-universal failure" of countries in the Americas and Europe to respond consistently and effectively to the pandemic.

Certainly, any iteration on pandemic preparedness doctrines worth its salt will have to accommodate restive populations and saboteur politicians, at least. And public health professionals need to take their own longstanding advice on being forthright and clear with adult nationals.

[Montmorency]

OK, that escalated quickly.

All Adults in New York Will Be Eligible for Vaccination Next Week (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/29/nyregion/new-york-vaccine-eligibility.html)

https://i.imgur.com/RjIa8XB.png


On the other hand, we've been slower than average in vaccination rate, and our Euro-style secular stagnation (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/03/why-are-covid-cases-going-up-in-new-york-city.html)...


New York State is now home to the country’s second-highest rate of new daily infections per 100,000 residents over the past two weeks (548), behind only neighboring New Jersey, which has had a 14-day average of 647 new cases per 100,000 residents. Infections in New York State and City, still extremely high despite having dropped significantly from their mid-winter peak, have been trending up again — and it’s not precisely clear why.



Cuomo's relaxed many restrictions since January, up to allowing 100 people to gather indoors starting next week. I wonder about California.

https://i.imgur.com/aGMgi4R.png
https://i.imgur.com/GSas75b.png

[spmetla]

It's crazy how everyone is easing things up so early. Here I am in an island state that needs tourism yet a year later we still don't have a solid system for keeping the 20k visitors a day in quarantine.

Just hoping the vaccination roll out continues on pretty well so that even if the cases rise that the hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

[Hooahguy]

Yeah its definitely concerning how quickly people are opening back up especially since not all that many people are vaccinated yet. Also have been noticing more people walking around with no mask lately. At least I get my second shot in a week and a half.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Florida is in the top numbers of both vaccinations and rate of infection. The joys of a deeply purple status.

[ReluctantSamurai]

And it seems that we, as a country, haven't learned a damn thing about how this virus works. In March/April of 2020, New York and Michigan were amongst the several leading states in cases and deaths. Now here we are in March/April 2021, and New York and Michigan are once again "leading the way." Michigan is #1 with a bullet in cases per 100k @53.7, New Jersey @50.3, and New York @42.0 [as per the Covid Act Now data]. You'd think with the new variants making themselves felt, that prudency would be the rule of the day.

With most medical experts saying that something north of 70% of the population needs to be vaccinated to ensure "herd immunity", the ridiculously low numbers (when considering the threshold whereby greater social relaxing can occur), is simply inexcusable on the part of government officials. Here in Michigan, the number of people with both doses is 16.6%, and those with a single dose is 28% (for the two dose vaccines). That's simply not even close to what's required. Positivity rate has tripled from 3.4% on 1 March, to 12% as of today. Just a month and a half ago, Michigan had an R0 of .89, and infections were declining steadily. As of today, the R0 is 1.28 and rising. While the death rate hasn't risen as dramatically...yet, hospitalizations have climbed from a seven day average of 847 on 1 March, to a seven day average of 1780 as of today.

People are tired of pandemic restrictions...I get it. But damn, just hang on a month or two longer until the % of those vaccinated gets at least north of 50%. As per a year ago, Europe is providing ample evidence for what's to come. This time it's about slow rollout of vaccination, and opening up too quickly, too soon.

Jeezus I'm tired of Americans whining about their damn precious personal freedoms when all that's happening is that folks like me who've done the right things in following protocol have to wait even longer to be able to have a reasonable life again.

[Hooahguy]

Not to mention that theres a question about whether or not 70% of Americans will even get the vaccine with a rather significant portion of people saying they wont get it, most of whom are Republicans. We are in deep deep trouble I think.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Not to mention that theres a question about whether or not 70% of Americans will even get the vaccine with a rather significant portion of people saying they wont get it, most of whom are Republicans. We are in deep deep trouble I think.

Herd immunity is achieved when antibodies are present in a high enough percentage of the population to mitigate against rapid infection spread and make it hard for the virus to be communicated. Rates vary with rates of contagion. Measles, for example, is very contagious and needs about 94% coverage in a population. COVID-19 is not quite as contagious (mostly because unlike measles it decays more rapidly on surfaces etc. and because the parent strain does not have quite as high an aerosol vector risk as does measles) but is very likely NOT going to be stopped with a mere 70% coverage.

Herd immunity is still inevitable, however, since you also acquire antibodies by ignoring the vaccine and getting sick with COVID-19. That so many of the people in my country choose such is saddening to me.

Unfortunately, the non-vaxers can still spread COVID to the immunized and, in rare instances, cause the death of those persons who are physically too weak to withstand even a vaccine-attenuated bout of COVID-19. Can you say "civic duty?"

I believe that my rights stop at your nose -- if I wish to endanger myself I may do so as long as I do not thereby endanger you. In this situation, 'standing on your rights' to not vax is proclaiming something akin to "I matter, you don't, fuck off."

Not happy making.

EDIT: Pfizer dose number two received 3/28/2021; live-in mom-in-law completed both in late January. Both my children and wife got their second doses this morning.

[ReluctantSamurai]

[...]but is very likely NOT going to be stopped with a mere 70% coverage

Even the experts don't agree on what point is enough, and there isn't enough data to provide anything more than a vague idea. But the fly-in-the-ointment is that if the vaccination process doesn't move much more quickly than it has, particularly in economically poor countries, and the pandemic continues to run rampant, the virus will find ways to both evade the protections provided by the vaccine, and become more deadly both in it's transmissibility, and it's lethality. The P1 variant has already shown a propensity to reinfect people who've already contracted a different variant. It's also the variant, along with the B117 that is possibly driving the increase here in Michigan, as many of the new cases are from this variant.

So you may be correct that a 70% vaccination level may not be enough, but you can't stop a freight train on a dime. You apply the brakes in a constant and controlled manner. If folks just kept their masks handy for when they have to spend an extended period of time indoors in a crowd, even after being vaccinated, we'd all be a lot better off....except we still keep seeing crazy shit like the Spring Break crowds in Miami Beach...:rolleyes:

[Montmorency]

https://i.imgur.com/MG9GiOg.png

Wicked.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Wicked.

Much more than that, I think. This is one of the reasons the US is in the situation it's in today. Rampant mis-information (and duplicitous BS, considering FN studio protocol) that goes unchallenged on media outlets like Fox, that uninformed people suck up like it's their last meal on death row.

I ration my daily news intake considerably now. If I don't, it just feels like my head will explode in frustration and anger.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

... a 70% vaccination level may not be enough, but you can't stop a freight train on a dime. You apply the brakes in a constant and controlled manner. If folks just kept their masks handy for when they have to spend an extended period of time indoors in a crowd, even after being vaccinated, we'd all be a lot better off....except we still keep seeing crazy shit like the Spring Break crowds in Miami Beach...:rolleyes:

I agree. I was noting that the all-too-common "we're through to the end" sentiments are NOT accurate. There is a ways still to go and it probably isn't reached at 7 in 10.

[Montmorency]

We'll see. Israel has had its share of the population with at least one dose hovering around 60% for a month (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations) (with almost all of those fully inoculated), and their new cases have plummeted to a tenth of their early-March level. On current priors summer ought to be smooth sailing - for the US.

Hopefully Cuba (https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/31/americas/cuba-vaccines-covid-phase-three-intl-latam/index.html) covers the Global South.

[ReluctantSamurai]

[...]and their new cases have plummeted to a tenth of their early-March level.

I don't think you can take one example and extrapolate to elsewhere. Social factors such as racial diversity, amount of incoming travelers, work conditions, urban density, and pre-disposition to higher vulnerability (crucial), factor in IMO. Using my own state of Michigan as an example (AGAIN:shame:), about 30% of the population is vaccinated...about 3,000,000. Yet cases, infection rate, and positivity, continue to rise....alarmingly. In four days since my last post of MI numbers, cases per 100,000 has gone from 53.7 to 64.5, positivity rate is about 14%, and both hospitalizations and ICU case loads have increased drastically. The case numbers in SE Michigan where the bulk of the population is, is well over 100/100k.

Michigan has a higher vulnerability than many states, for various reasons. This site explains what CCVI is and why it's important:

https://covidactnow.org/covid-explained/covid-vulnerability-data

And an interactive map:

https://www.precisionforcoviddata.org/

We are also seeing the B117 variant taking over as dominant in most of the new cases. Counters the vaccine, somewhat....:shrug: So I would guess, that some areas/countries can calm the pandemic significantly in a 60-70% vaccination range, others are going to have to be much higher than 70%, probably in the vacinity of 85-90%.

[Montmorency]

Variables like underlying levels of acquired or latent immunity will especially affect vulnerability in the final stretch, but if we were extrapolating solely from Israel's experience (which, to be fair, has had firmer regulation in place throughout 2021 than most or all of the United States), then Michigan, with a population similar to Israel's, more than half the population should have undergone inoculation to sustain caseload reductions.

Even thus far, vaccination in Michigan (https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/michigan-covid-cases-hospitalizations-vaccine-eligibility) has contributed to minimizing the growth in hospitalizations among the elderly, also as in Israel; when Israel had a similar level of inoculation as Michigan does now through late January, it experienced a small but brief spike with an average daily case rate only about 25% down from the all-time peak.


Much of that growth is "occurring among younger age groups," the Michigan Health and Hospital Association reported last week. The age group 30-39 has seen a 633% increase in hospitalizations, while hospitalizations for those in the 40-49 bracket have exploded by 800%.

But among adults 80 and older, hospitalizations only climbed 37%. That's despite elderly people having a tougher time weathering COVID-19's most severe symptoms.

Doctors say the disparity of these numbers is evidence that vaccines are working.

https://images.foxtv.com/static.fox2detroit.com/www.fox2detroit.com/content/uploads/2021/03/932/524/wjbk_mha-data_033021.jpg?ve=1&tl=1

Regardless, within 3 months the large majority of the whole adult population in Michigan and the US should have protection, so the summer is when we'll be able to characterize the effect.



A little surprisingly, US suicides (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234) in 2020 were on the low side of baseline, with overall excess deaths over half a million.

[Montmorency]

Apparently the EU's vaccine administration (https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-vaccination-coronavirus-success-story/) is finally on rails. Although the figures provided in the article only indicate 80+ million doses administered, not over 100 million (unless "distributed" in the excerpt refers to national local health authorities rather than from those to patients).


As the shots roll in, the speed of the EU’s vaccination programme is likely to increase significantly. The average daily vaccination rate is set to double, to the U.S. equivalent of 2 million a day, by the middle of April, and then increase by another million a day in May. It’s not for nothing that European health ministers are starting to sound increasingly confident about getting the entire adult population vaccinated at least once by early July.

At the start of the year, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen introduced an EU-wide target: 70 percent of the adult population vaccinated “by the summer.” The bloc was always likely to meet that target. Simple math now shows it’s basically guaranteed.

Some 100 million vaccines have already been distributed by the end of March. Add the 380 million to come in the second quarter and that means that by the middle of July, around 270 million EU citizens can be fully vaccinated — or roughly 70 percent of the EU’s 380 million adults. (This calculation assumes we’ll get just 80 million shots from AstraZeneca but also includes the 55 million of single-dose Johnson & Johnson jabs). Any additional production would speed this up significantly. The most likely candidate here is German biotech firm CureVac’s mRNA vaccine, whose clinical trial data is already under review with the EMA.

[Hooahguy]

Had my second shot of the Moderna vaccine yesterday. I was bracing for the high fever and nausea that many people reported after the Moderna shot, but the worst I had was a sore arm. Its been almost 24 hours so I think I might be in the clear.

[spmetla]

Got my second shot of moderna on Saturday. Had a slight headache on Sunday then all good Monday. I was at the extreme limit of when to get the second shot so maybe that made the side effects less potent.

[Hooahguy]

The CDC is now saying (https://apnews.com/article/cdc-mask-wearing-guidance-d373775ddcf237764c19ff9428b59634) that fully vaccinated folk can go outside with no masks on. Ive been mostly maskless outside the past day or so and wow is it a weird feeling. If I see that Im going to come across more than one person on a sidewalk Ill put my mask back on, but otherwise its off and its something that I will definitely have to get used to again. Also convenient that this comes when the weather gets hot- those masks are brutal in the heat and humidity. Things in the DMV area are looking up though! Cases are dropping, people are getting vaccinated, and the reproduction rate is well below 1. The big question is if this can be sustained, especially as the region looks to ease more restrictions in just a few days. Personally I think we should be waiting another month but we will see.

A redditor (https://www.reddit.com/r/washingtondc/comments/mzzykp/latest_pandemic_statistics_for_the_dc_nova_moco/) on the DC subreddit does a really nifty weekly update with all the statistics in the region and it definitely looks good.
https://i.redd.it/9em9t1pahsv61.png

Im not sure if there are similar efforts in other regions in the US, but it would be interesting to see that data.

[Montmorency]

Tbh, I'm going to have to relearn how to keep a straight face without a mask...

[spmetla]

I'll be happy recognizing people faster, some folks I only see a few times a year were a bit insulted I couldn't recognize them with the mask on.

[edyzmedieval]

Despite being vaccinated, I will keep my mask on particularly for health reasons (season allergies). Having a mask on filters a lot of the dust that comes through.

[spmetla]

The masks do make sense, being in Hawaii I've seen a lot of Asian travelers over the years and they regularly wear masks at airports or when sick to protect themselves and not spread flus to others. I'd hope that not having to work when sick ( a very US thing) and wearing a mask when you're on the cusp of a cold or flu would catch on as being socially responsible. Unfortunately, that change is unlikely to happen as masks were so stupidly politized.

[Shaka_Khan]

This was uploaded on March 28, 2020.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN3BWaEH3tY

[ReluctantSamurai]

Unfortunately, that change is unlikely to happen as masks were so stupidly politized.

Not just "were", but still:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/27/tucker-carlson-fox-news-masks-biden-cdc


Regardless, in primetime on Monday night the Fox News host (https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-we-should-start-asking-people-to-stop-wearing-masks-outside-it-makes-us-uncomfortable) Tucker Carlson claimed (https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tucker-carlson-urges-audience-to-call-the-police-immediately-if-they-see-kids-wearing-masks-outdoors/) requiring children to wear masks outdoors was “child abuse”. Carlson also said “the only people who wear masks outside are zealots and neurotics” and said seeing a vaccinated person wear a mask outdoors was like “watching a grown man expose himself in public”.

“Your response when you see children wearing masks as they play should be no different from your response to seeing someone beat a kid in Walmart,” he said. “Call the police immediately, contact child protective services. Keep calling until someone arrives. What you’re looking at is abuse, it’s child abuse and you are morally obligated to attempt to prevent it.”

The man's stupidity knows no bounds. But of course he doesn't really give a shit whether anyone wears a mask or not, he's just stirring up controversy to boost ratings since Fox lost their cash cow in Jan.

Funny how right-wing zealots have loved to quote the First Amendment when refusing to wear a mask during this whole pandemic, but now want to take away those same rights for those who still wish to wear them.

So we go from Dr. Seuss, to Mr. Potato Head, to Hunter Biden's "discovered" laptop, to MLB's "cancel culture", to Kamela Harris' supposed book handout to immigrants, to call the cops on your neighbor. Not a single word about anything that really matters to Americans....:no:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...So we go from Dr. Seuss, to Mr. Potato Head, to Hunter Biden's "discovered" laptop, to MLB's "cancel culture", to Kamela Harris' supposed book handout to immigrants, to call the cops on your neighbor. Not a single word about anything that really matters to Americans....:no:

You do remember that we are a nation that has local news at 1800, national news at 1830, and then follow this hour of news with an hour of celebrity gossip shows...and the ratings go up as each half hour show comes on. You really aren't surprised that lots of folks are distracted from things of importance are you? That's practically critical theory 101.

[Montmorency]

You do remember that we are a nation that has local news at 1800, national news at 1830, and then follow this hour of news with an hour of celebrity gossip shows...and the ratings go up as each half hour show comes on. You really aren't surprised that lots of folks are distracted from things of importance are you? That's practically critical theory 101.

I've become aware of a steady beat of stories about how local journalism, paper and TV, has diminished-to-disappeared across most of the country over the past 20 years, because there's no more money in it for conceivable reasons.

[ReluctantSamurai]

You really aren't surprised that lots of folks are distracted from things of importance are you? That's practically critical theory 101.

I ration the amount of "news" I consume so that my head doesn't explode. I would imagine there are plenty of other folks who do the same...:shrug:

What I'm getting at is the culture war propaganda being promoted by conservative media outlets......because the people promoting such crap have no real agenda on how to fix problems here in the US. Back during the election campaign days, it was pointed out that the RNC was so lazy they didn't even bother to come up with a party platform for their 2020 convention. They simply cut-and-pasted the 2016 platform without even bothering to edit out the text that derided the current president (Trump)....:rolleyes:

The GOP and other conservatives have no agenda other than voter suppression and "owning the libs". They have to do this precisely because they have no real plan for the American people, and would not get elected to office if "fair" elections were the norm. So instead they talk about how Biden's infrastructure plan includes restricting the amount of meat Americans will be able to eat (notwithstanding that that actually would be more healthy for them) even though the report they use as a source for that claim was actually written when Trump was still president, and that such wording exists nowhere in Biden's proposals.

Lots of flash and trash about what's happening with immigrants and how it's all the Dems fault (looking at you Ted Cruz) but not a peep about what to do about it, or even why so many Latin Americans want to risk their lives to migrate here. This kind litany is repeated over and over and over (pick your topic) until many people believe it's all true [Terry Goodkind's Wizards First Rule applies here]. That's the one thing Republicans are good at...keep repeating lies or partial truth until enough people believe it.

So Tucker Carlson going on national TV and saying that wearing a mask is a criminal offense, especially for kids, will likely result in someone getting accused of child abuse and having their children taken from them as a result when some zealot calls the police on a neighbor they despise (probably Asian, LGBT, or Black) and some local LEO will gladly do it because THEY despise those very same people, as well.

[Montmorency]

I ration the amount of "news" I consume so that my head doesn't explode. I would imagine there are plenty of other folks who do the same...:shrug:

What I'm getting at is the culture war propaganda being promoted by conservative media outlets......because the people promoting such crap have no real agenda on how to fix problems here in the US. Back during the election campaign days, it was pointed out that the RNC was so lazy they didn't even bother to come up with a party platform for their 2020 convention. They simply cut-and-pasted the 2016 platform without even bothering to edit out the text that derided the current president (Trump)....:rolleyes:

The GOP and other conservatives have no agenda other than voter suppression and "owning the libs". They have to do this precisely because they have no real plan for the American people, and would not get elected to office if "fair" elections were the norm. So instead they talk about how Biden's infrastructure plan includes restricting the amount of meat Americans will be able to eat (notwithstanding that that actually would be more healthy for them) even though the report they use as a source for that claim was actually written when Trump was still president, and that such wording exists nowhere in Biden's proposals.

Lots of flash and trash about what's happening with immigrants and how it's all the Dems fault (looking at you Ted Cruz) but not a peep about what to do about it, or even why so many Latin Americans want to risk their lives to migrate here. This kind litany is repeated over and over and over (pick your topic) until many people believe it's all true [Terry Goodkind's Wizards First Rule applies here]. That's the one thing Republicans are good at...keep repeating lies or partial truth until enough people believe it.

So Tucker Carlson going on national TV and saying that wearing a mask is a criminal offense, especially for kids, will likely result in someone getting accused of child abuse and having their children taken from them as a result when some zealot calls the police on a neighbor they despise (probably Asian, LGBT, or Black) and some local LEO will gladly do it because THEY despise those very same people, as well.

You should have seen the sign out front, RS.

The Republicans are the Party of Despair. Morgoth may be on the donor rolls somewhere.

https://i.imgur.com/WDIQt03.png

Even though they're DOA, Biden pulling out a $2 trillion family/employee care proposal on the heels of a $2 trillion infrastructure proposal is genuinely exceeding expectations.

[spmetla]

The GOP and other conservatives have no agenda other than voter suppression and "owning the libs".
It's so pathetic that this is absolutely true, they prefer saying things to doing things. Social issues and reactionary attitudes is pretty much the core of the party now, everything of substance I used to support them for is now in the trash bin. I can only hope they sustain more seat losses next year, the growth of population in 'the south' is a lot of democrats moving to republican states which will likely put more states into the purple zone. This fringe thinking that's completely taken over the republican party needs suffer definitive losses at the ballot box so that the few conservative centrists left in the party can finally split and form a new party to challenge the democrats for the center.


The Republicans are the Party of Despair. Morgoth may be on the donor rolls somewhere.

A lot of truth in it. Biden made it clear he wanted to work on issues bi-partisan but the expectation of republicans that he should concede everything to them in order to pass legislation is insane. I'm glad Biden's just plowing ahead, if the republicans aren't serious about working together then continue on with your agenda.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I know this really belongs in a different thread, but I'd just like to put an exclamation point on the last several posts:

https://www.msnbc.com/stephanie-ruhle/watch/watch-west-virginia-governor-unable-to-provide-evidence-of-transgender-athletes-gaining-athletic-advantage-after-signing-anti-transgender-bill-111117381621

Yep, we got nothin', so let's just go with culture war.....:no:

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-rMCOES7Lo


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-47q4Zx2cHw

[ReluctantSamurai]

We're about to find out whether President Biden's popular "folksy" self-projection holds up when pressured by big business:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/23/opinion/global-vaccine-patents.html


Last July, during the presidential campaign, Joe Biden promised (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4CLoiA3vfQ) the universal health care advocate Ady Barkan that he wouldn’t let intellectual property laws stand in the way of worldwide access to coronavirus vaccines.

Biden was unequivocal. “This is the only humane thing in the world to do,” he said. “It lacks any human dignity, what we’re doing,” he said of Trump’s vaccine isolationism. “So the answer is yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. And it’s not only a good thing to do, it’s overwhelmingly in our interest to do.”

The House letter on the matter to Biden is both puzzling and predictable:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/democrats-covid-19-vaccine-patents-waiver-letter-biden_n_6090ec8fe4b05af50dc72e98

The puzzling part:


There are some puzzling absences as well. Of the 93 members (https://progressives.house.gov/caucus-members/) of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, 22 did not sign the letter.

The predictable part:


Plenty of Democrats (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pharma-democrats-covid-19-vaccine-waiver-schakowsky-letter_n_60909efbe4b02e74d22aba89?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004) are wary of lifting the intellectual property rules. Many of them are among Congress’ top-25 recipients (https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/pacrecips.php?ind=h04&cycle=2020) of campaign contributions from pharmaceutical industry political action committees.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), a Biden confidant and the 16th-largest recipient of pharmaceutical industry PAC donations last election cycle, has been outspoken in defense of the patents.

This just goes to show that the GOP hasn't cornered the market on corruption:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pharma-democrats-covid-19-vaccine-waiver-schakowsky-letter_n_60909efbe4b02e74d22aba89


All of the Democrats (https://www.huffpost.com/news/topic/democratic-party) who are among Congress’s top recipients of pharmaceutical industry cash have yet to endorse waiving the rules on intellectual property rights for the COVID-19 (https://www.huffpost.com/feature/coronavirus) vaccines that many experts say stand in the way of needed production.

A total of 110 of the 218 House Democrats, including Schakowsky, have signed the letter, ensuring it will have the support of a majority of the House Democratic Caucus.

But none of the nine House Democrats among Congress’s top 25 recipients (https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/pacrecips.php?ind=h04&cycle=2020) of donations from pharmaceutical industry PACs in the 2020 election cycle have signed the letter.

And the US wonders why many in the world see capitalism as evil....:shrug:

[Hooahguy]

Literally a few hours (https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biden-says-plans-back-wto-waiver-vaccines-2021-05-05/) after you posted lol


President Joe Biden on Wednesday threw his support behind waiving intellectual property rights for COVID-19 vaccines, bowing to mounting pressure from Democratic lawmakers and more than 100 other countries, but angering pharmaceutical companies.

Biden voiced his support for a temporary waiver - a sharp reversal of the previous U.S. position - after a speech at the White House, followed swiftly by an official statement from his chief trade negotiator, Katherine Tai.

[Montmorency]

Literally a few hours (https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biden-says-plans-back-wto-waiver-vaccines-2021-05-05/) after you posted lol

Just like with the refugee cap, the pressure works and is necessary.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Literally a few hours (https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biden-says-plans-back-wto-waiver-vaccines-2021-05-05/) after you posted lol

Kudos to the President for doing the right thing:2thumbsup: My post was more about the corporate Dems catering to their donors....:shrug:


Just like with the refugee cap, the pressure works and is necessary.

Amen. Would never have worked under Trump...

[ReluctantSamurai]

And the debate rages on:

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/wuhan-lab-staff-sought-hospital-care-before-covid-19-outbreak-disclosed-wsj-2021-05-23/


The newspaper said the previously undisclosed report - which provides fresh details on the number of researchers affected, the timing of their illnesses, and their hospital visits - may add weight to calls for a broader investigation into whether the COVID-19 virus could have escaped from the laboratory.

Chinese scientists and officials have consistently rejected the lab leak hypothesis, saying SARS-CoV-2 could have been circulating in other regions before it hit Wuhan, and might have even entered China from another country via imported frozen food shipments or wildlife trading.

A joint study into the origins of COVID-19 by the WHO and China published at the end of March said it was "extremely unlikely" that it had escaped from a lab. read more (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/who-says-covid-likely-passed-bats-humans-through-another-animal-ap-2021-03-29/)

At this point, does it really matter to anyone but China? The political fallout from the lab escape theory would harm noone else but China, so it's highly unlikely they will be forthcoming with raw data and other information concerning the outbreak. While I understand the "need-to-know" where/how SARS-Cov-2 got started, the whole effort seems doomed to failure as China under no circumstances, short of someone in the know turning on the government, will allow any outside access to raw data that would suggest a lab accident in Wuhan...:shrug:

[Montmorency]

‘Lions Led by Donkeys’: Cummings Unloads on Johnson Government (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/26/world/europe/cummings-johnson-covid.html)
LONDON — He suggested that a doctor inject him with the coronavirus live on television to play down the dangers to a nervous public. He modeled himself after the small-town mayor in the movie “Jaws,” who ignored warnings to close the beaches even though there was a marauding shark offshore. As the pandemic closed in on Britain, he was distracted by an unflattering story about his fiancée and her dog.

That was the portrait of Prime Minister Boris Johnson painted by his disaffected former chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, in parliamentary testimony on Wednesday. While Mr. Johnson flatly rejected several of the assertions in his own appearance in Parliament on Wednesday, they nevertheless landed with a thud in a country still struggling to understand how the early days of the pandemic were botched so badly.

“When the public needed us most, the government failed,” said Mr. Cummings, the political strategist who masterminded Britain’s campaign to leave the European Union and engineered Mr. Johnson’s rise to power before falling out bitterly with his boss and emerging as a self-styled whistle-blower.

In more than seven hours of testimony that veered from the clinically technical to the ripely personal, Mr. Cummings described a government paralyzed by chaos, confusion and incompetence, which he said crippled Britain’s handling of the pandemic and contributed to tens of thousands of needless deaths.

At its heart, Mr. Cummings’ testimony was about his poisoned relationship with his former boss. Relations between the two had deteriorated by July, he said, but “took a terrible dive after the lockdown in October.” By this point, Mr. Cummings said he regarded the prime minister “as unfit for the job” and was trying to create a structure around him to limit poor decision-making.

I would say he's coming hard with that John Bolton energy, but as far as I know Cummings isn't holding out for book deals.


Mr. Cummings said he was not qualified to have held such a powerful position. He said he was not fluent enough in math and science to engage constructively with top scientists. And he said that he lost every major debate over reforming the bureaucracy. By September, he said, when Mr. Johnson was resisting a second lockdown, he should have threatened to quit to force his hand.

“If I had acted earlier,” Mr. Cummings said, “then lots of people might still be alive.”

Fair cop.


The chaos, Mr. Cummings said, was like “a scene from ‘Independence Day,’ with Jeff Goldblum saying the aliens are here and your whole plan is broken.” Mr. Johnson’s preferred movie reference was “Jaws,” he said, because he saw it as an analogy to his reluctance to impose lockdowns. Even after he survived a near-death experience with Covid, Mr. Cummings said, Mr. Johnson remained a skeptic.

The mayor of Jaws town was like the whole villain of the movie, or at least the human villain. Then again, contemporary politicians have compared themselves to Darth Vader or the Death Star, so it shouldn't be long before movie Hitler from Downfall becomes a positive reference for his passion or something. Chisulieren!


Mr. Cummings also confirmed that he had heard Mr. Johnson say he would rather see “bodies pile high” than take the country into a third lockdown — comments reported by the BBC but denied by Downing Street.

Meeting between PM Johnson and Mr. Cummings, 2020, colorized


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feY5KhdXsUQ

[Montmorency]

Apparently the UK's tracking app (https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/05/25/u-k-study-shows-power-of-digital-contact-tracing-in-the-pandemic/) did alright after all.


The research comes from Christophe Fraser, Oxford University, and his colleagues in the U.K. The team studied the NHS COVID-19 app, the National Health Service’s digital tracing smart phone app for England and Wales. Launched in September 2020, the app has been downloaded onto 21 million devices and used regularly by about half of eligible smart phone users, ages 16 and older. That’s 16.5 million of 33.7 million people, or more than a quarter of the total population of England and Wales.

From the end of September through December 2020, the app sent about 1.7 million exposure notifications. That’s 4.4 on average for every person with COVID-19 who opted-in to the digital tracing app.

The researchers estimate that around 6 percent of app users who received notifications of close contact with a positive case went on to test positive themselves. That’s similar to what’s been observed in traditional contact tracing.

Next, they used two different approaches to construct mathematical and statistical models to determine how likely it was that a notified contact, if infected, would quarantine in a timely manner. Though the two approaches arrived at somewhat different answers, their combined outputs suggest that the app may have stopped anywhere from 200,000 to 900,000 infections in just three months. This means that roughly one case was averted for each COVID-19 case that consented to having their contacts notified through the app.

Of course, these apps are only as good as the total number of people who download and use them faithfully. They estimate that for every 1 percent increase in app users, the number of COVID-19 cases could be reduced by another 1 or 2 percent.

[Montmorency]

While you weren't looking, Italy, Germany, and France have caught up to the US in vaccination rates (all above 50%). The new waves in the UK and - potentially - Israel are concerning though.

[Pannonian]

While you weren't looking, Italy, Germany, and France have caught up to the US in vaccination rates (all above 50%). The new waves in the UK and - potentially - Israel are concerning though.

Johnson was desperate for a headline-grabbing trade deal with India and delayed putting India on the red list until the talks were over. Neighbouring countries with a lower infection rate who weren't engaged in trade talks were put on the red list before India.

[rory_20_uk]

While you weren't looking, Italy, Germany, and France have caught up to the US in vaccination rates (all above 50%). The new waves in the UK and - potentially - Israel are concerning though.

Vaccines are supposed to be an adjunct to the other measures, not a magical "get out of any responsibility" jab.

Everyone altering one's behaviour in relatively minor ways would really have helped - as Asians countries that a short hard lockdown followed by sensible measures really helps.

But freedom, right?

~:smoking:

[spmetla]

The culture of hyper-individualism puts one's desires before that of the community. While I prefer the individual over the cult of the State too, I'd say the 'west' should try and put some consideration back for the common good somehow. How does one guide culture and values anyhow?

In my arguments with friends about this I keep bringing up Sweden vs Norway/Denmark combined. 14,000 plus deaths in Sweden for a population of about 10 million while Denmark 2,500 deaths and Norway 790 with a combined population of about 11 million. Similar lifestyles, geography, economy, governance with the only real difference being how the government dealt with the virus. About four times the deaths and virus spread with zero government action.

Sadly the common response to the above is "I don't trust those numbers" which allows for zero debate, just emotional gut responses.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Sadly the common response to the above is "I don't trust those numbers" which allows for zero debate, just emotional gut responses.

The very reason I stopped discussing the pandemic with just about everyone. I've gotten both of my vaccine doses, and I will continue to wear a mask indoors in stores, etc. I'm waiting for the first person to accost me for wearing one....:creep:

Here stateside, most people aren't paying attention to the new variants, especially the Delta (India) variant, which is causing increases in cases for even those countries with a decent (50%+) level of vaccination, and will certainly become the dominant variant worldwide. And yet, Western countries are still bowing to Big Pharma by not releasing, even temporarily, vaccine patents. If there's a COVID firestorm somewhere, there will eventually be one everywhere.

Humans, at least the greedy types, never learn....:no:

[rory_20_uk]

Releasing vaccine patents isn't the same as releasing oil from reserves or food.

Short term, would people trust a vaccine made by a lab that just got into the game when the patents became free to use? Do they have the appropriate ability to manufacture safely - even inspecting all sites would take time (assuming that they even exist). There might well be labs that think they can but might well be after a quick buck; AZ is doing it at cost in the pandemic and they're struggling to up production due to getting the lab on line. Might all suppliers bother to get it right? Personally I'd rather wait longer for a one from a primary supplier - rather like how many Chinese would rather buy baby powder from New Zealand than from a local supplier since they want quality.

Although freeing up patents has its own drawbacks, if they were to do so, they could do what is done in technology where key patents have to be licenced at fair market value to others - ditto ARM, Intel, AMD, NVIDIA and so on and so forth. As why should Pfizer just be forced to give up one of their products? I imagine that technology Tesla has would help other companies and the world but no one is asking them to do so.

Longer term, next time there's a pandemic that requires companies to quickly save our collective refusal to act like adults, companies might not be as quick to do so if they get their patents pinched and their reputations trashed.

~:smoking:

[ReluctantSamurai]

Releasing vaccine patents isn't the same as releasing oil from reserves or food.

But it would allow the number of labs producing said vaccine to increase dramatically, thereby easing the worldwide pandemic load. Obviously, that's not instantaneous, but by the end of this year or early next year, even the poorest of the poor will have something...:shrug:

Yup...there will be the opportunists looking to make a buck, but along with the temporary release of patents, comes oversight.


Personally I'd rather wait longer for a one from a primary supplier

I think that people from any of the third world countries where COVID19 is still running amok, might have a different take...:shrug:


As why should Pfizer just be forced to give up one of their products?

Much of the money that went into COVID-19 vaccines was government money (ie. taxpayers money), and therefore governments should have at least some say in the matter:

https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20210512.191448/full/


In the case of vaccines in general, the government often plays an outsized role, but in the era of COVID-19 the government’s role was even more central than usual. The government essentially removed the bulk of traditional industry risks related to vaccine development: a) scientific failures, b) failures to demonstrate safety and efficacy, c) manufacturing risks; and d) market risks related to low demand.

Since 2000, taxpayer dollars have financed the development of various vaccine platforms for HIV, pandemic flu, and other threats to public health. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the government leveraged investments in those platforms in three ways. First, it supported additional preclinical studies. Second, it absorbed the bulk of human testing costs and risk through a set of contracts that paid for the various phases of vaccine development and manufacturing. And third, it reduced manufacturing risk by underwriting capacity investments.

The government also largely eliminated market risks through advance purchase commitments. These contracts involved negotiation over price and quantity that ended in mutually agreeable contract terms between the government and industry.

The article goes on to cite individual money amounts granted to Big Pharma. Suffice to say it was billions...

You ain't going to see me crying tears over Big Pharma. They made billions:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/13/business/business-of-covid-vaccine/index.html

[rory_20_uk]

But it would allow the number of labs producing said vaccine to increase dramatically, thereby easing the worldwide pandemic load. Obviously, that's not instantaneous, but by the end of this year or early next year, even the poorest of the poor will have something...:shrug:

Yup...there will be the opportunists looking to make a buck, but along with the temporary release of patents, comes oversight.



I think that people from any of the third world countries where COVID19 is still running amok, might have a different take...:shrug:



Much of the money that went into COVID-19 vaccines was government money (ie. taxpayers money), and therefore governments should have at least some say in the matter:

https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20210512.191448/full/



The article goes on to cite individual money amounts granted to Big Pharma. Suffice to say it was billions...

You ain't going to see me crying tears over Big Pharma. They made billions:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/13/business/business-of-covid-vaccine/index.html

Temporary release. Just during the time they're needed. Great! Oversight... by who exactly?

Brazil refused 70,000,000 Pfizer jobs they were offered... For free. Coz the Leader there doesn't think it is a big deal. Or something. I've no idea why.

People in third world countries are very used to getting dodgy medicines that don't work or kill. I am not sure so many would be delighted to get something that might kill better than COVID.

There were grants given to Big Pharma. Pharma did overall make billions... But they are separate companies. Those that got the money aee not those that brought out the vaccines (certainly not the first ones - Pfizer didn't get a grant and AZ is producing someone else's so it didn't apply either). That governments pissed vast sums of money and it didn't achieve much is not unusual. Paying for product is more cost effective.

~:smoking:

[ReluctantSamurai]

Oversight... by who exactly?

The WHO, or an independent board.


Coz the Leader there doesn't think it is a big deal.

Bolsonaro isn't exactly the most popular figure in Brazil, at the moment. And you are making the assumption that all vaccines produced in places other than developed Western countries won't work or will kill.


That governments pissed vast sums of money and it didn't achieve much is not unusual.

Often quite true, but not in the case of vaccines. The groundwork laid by government expenditures in the last decade played a major role in delivering a COVID vaccine in record time.


But they are separate companies. Those that got the money aee not those that brought out the vaccines

Read the quote from the first link, above. There were other ways besides direct cash rollouts that governments aided in bringing COVID vaccines into existence so quickly....and it's not like it was the workers & researchers that got money---most of the profit has gone to CEO's and shareholders.


Paying for product is more cost effective.

Rich countries buying product and distributing to poorer countries is needed for the short-term. Waiving patent protections is a longer term strategy. Both are needed if we don't want to see one new variant after another continuing to emerge. Whatever course is taken, it'd better be sooner than later, or we get an Omega variant that screws us all...:hanged:

[Montmorency]

Rory is right that patent restrictions are not what is preventing poor countries from launching domestic production in the short term (and at this point cumulative vaccine production is definitely not a bottleneck to universal inoculation), but he is wrong that the existing patent system is a spur to innovation or competition.

For now let's just say that the most effective approach is for the rich world to procure and distribute a couple billion doses. And then we can discuss directing investment into domestic biotech infrastructure for the likes of India, and a copyleft system for innovation in medicine. Unfortunately the global patent/copyright system is one of the international order's most entrenched features, having been promulgated by the US for generations and secured by international covenants to which almost all countries are party.

[rory_20_uk]

Medicine copyright ends after roughly 20 years. Something we do not see in any other walk of life. So compared to most this is extremely open, with (outside if the insane healthcare system in the USA) generics taking over 95% of the market and even in biologicals having a price reduction of 70%. Yes, that means the rich get healthcare earlier but this is better than most others.

Governments could try to set up their own companies. Who knows, this time it might not be a disaster. I would have thought seed investing in small biotechs out of Universities would be best - perhaps even having grants linked to equity in future spinoffs.

India should focus on cleaning its rivers rather for starters - the basics rather than a space programme. Less sexy but saves many more lives.

~:smoking:

[Montmorency]

Medicine copyright ends after roughly 20 years. Something we do not see in any other walk of life. So compared to most this is extremely open, with (outside if the insane healthcare system in the USA) generics taking over 95% of the market and even in biologicals having a price reduction of 70%. Yes, that means the rich get healthcare earlier but this is better than most others.

I defer to Dean Baker, the international patent economist, on this one. Not a long article (https://cepr.net/drugs-are-cheap-why-do-we-let-governments-make-them-expensive/). On global relevance:


Of course people have realized at this point that the reason Sovaldi has a high price in the United States is that Gilead Sciences has a patent monopoly on the drug. This monopoly gives it the exclusive right to sell the drug in the United States. The U.S. government will arrest anyone who tries to sell Sovaldi in competition with Gilead Sciences.2 The United States is unique in that we both grant pharmaceutical companies a patent monopoly on their drugs, and then let them sell the drugs for whatever price they want. Other wealthy countries also grant patent monopolies, which are required by a number of international agreements, but they have some form of price control which limits what companies can charge. For this reason, drug prices in other wealthy countries are typically around half of the price in the United States.

My comments will refer largely to the United States. This is first and foremost because it is the market with which I am most familiar. However the same problems appear in other countries, even if they may not be as extreme as in the United States. Furthermore, it is the explicit goal of the United States government to use trade agreements like the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Pact to raise the price of drugs in other countries to U.S. levels. So the United States may well represent the future for the prescription drug market in Sweden and the rest of Europe.


Governments could try to set up their own companies. Who knows, this time it might not be a disaster. I would have thought seed investing in small biotechs out of Universities would be best - perhaps even having grants linked to equity in future spinoffs.

India should focus on cleaning its rivers rather for starters - the basics rather than a space programme. Less sexy but saves many more lives.

To be clear, India is a major world pharmaceuticals exporter and has manufactured and distributed hundreds of millions of doses of Covid vaccines - including those of local design - by now. It's not bereft of capacity. What is always valuable however is the ability to build capacity domestically without relying on technology transfers and licensing from foreign companies, which as I understand it is a problem with respect to RNA vaccines in India. So poorer countries presumably don't have much baseline.

A good term I've seen used, and applicable to much beyond vaccines and pharmaceuticals, is "industrial coaching (https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/29643/despite-the-move-by-biden-coronavirus- patent-waivers-won-t-work)" or "technical coaching."

Relatedly, there's the cool story of Cuba achieving Covid vaccine self-reliance in "Abdala" and "Soberana 2." or at least, it has successfully developed national vaccines independently (the government apparently doesn't intend to import any vaccines).

[rory_20_uk]

I defer to Dean Baker, the international patent economist, on this one. Not a long article (https://cepr.net/drugs-are-cheap-why-do-we-let-governments-make-them-expensive/). On global relevance:





To be clear, India is a major world pharmaceuticals exporter and has manufactured and distributed hundreds of millions of doses of Covid vaccines - including those of local design - by now. It's not bereft of capacity. What is always valuable however is the ability to build capacity domestically without relying on technology transfers and licensing from foreign companies, which as I understand it is a problem with respect to RNA vaccines in India. So poorer countries presumably don't have much baseline.

A good term I've seen used, and applicable to much beyond vaccines and pharmaceuticals, is "industrial coaching (https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/29643/despite-the-move-by-biden-coronavirus- patent-waivers-won-t-work)" or "technical coaching."

Relatedly, there's the cool story of Cuba achieving Covid vaccine self-reliance in "Abdala" and "Soberana 2." or at least, it has successfully developed national vaccines independently (the government apparently doesn't intend to import any vaccines).

As the article says throughout this mainly applies to the USA. Most other countries have cost controls and vastly less inefficient systems where doctors are not bribed to prescribe by brand.
Selling off licence is illegal. The USA tends to hae such small punishments companies still do it - look at the opiate crisis.
If the FDA wants more data it should ask for more. Currently the data package includes all trials and pre clinical work. I am not sure other areas one requires submitting technical data to reverse engineer a submitted patent.
The current system is far from perfect. If governments don't like it then why haven't they started their own companies to discover new, better or at least cheaper molecules?
I personally think it is because all counties - aside from the USA are content to wait for the patents to expire and get the products as generics.

I am sure many companies would be delighted to get a technology transfer as well as companies. Why isn't ti's true of lithium battery development, solar panels, and so on and so on?

The EU has already made moves to ban people who have had an Indian made jab. Is this based on science or Xenophobia?

~:smoking:

[Shaka_Khan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VudnjD3Jks

[Furunculus]

The EU has already made moves to ban people who have had an Indian made jab. Is this based on science or Xenophobia?

~:smoking:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/04/eu-vaccination-india-astrazeneca


In other words, if vaccines are safe and effective enough to be distributed by the EU, they are safe and effective enough to be accepted by the EU.

The optics are terrible. The episode touches all types of nerves, as it has in Britain – where it will no doubt do little to shift the post-Brexit stereotype of a spiteful EU. For non-western countries, the most inflammatory implication is that even though the two AstraZeneca vaccines are exactly the same, the one produced in India must be inferior: an idea that even taints some of the stock distributed in the UK...

But beyond the headlines lies not overt prejudice, but bureaucratic procedures that result in de facto discrimination. According to the EMA, Covishield was not included in the vaccine passport scheme because its manufacturer, the Serum Institute of India, had not applied for marketing authorisation; yet this would be an odd thing to do as the vaccine is not manufactured for marketing and use in Europe (the institute has since applied for authorisation). The EMA said that Covishield licensing under AstraZeneca was not enough because manufacturing conditions differed from facility to facility, therefore all licensees had to apply separately.

For now, the outrage expressed by non-European countries seems to have partly worked. At the end of last week seven European countries individually approved Covishield. But the fact that this predictable anger was unforeseen is revealing of a complacent bureaucracy oblivious to the needs and perceptions of most of the world.

[rory_20_uk]

I'm reassured to see that however much the world changes, the EU continues to hold up procedural inflexibility as a core virtue, as without the rule of law what are we?
Oh, apart from when they decide to do so in which case best to ignore it.

~:smoking:

[Hooahguy]

The data (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/health-ministry-vaccine-down-to-64-effectiveness-in-averting-symptomatic-covid/) now coming out of Israel about the Delta variant is fairly encouraging:


The Health Ministry says that in the past month, the Pfizer vaccine’s effectiveness in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 has dropped by some 30% to 64%.

It notes the drop in effectiveness has come amid the spread of the Delta variant.

The ministry adds that the vaccine’s effectiveness at preventing serious illness is at 93%.

As the Delta variant hasnt fully hit the US yet the numbers seem to be on the lower end still, which is good. In my city, daily covid cases have been in the low double-digits for a while now. And I think there hasnt been a death in like two weeks or so. But as I said, the Delta variant hasnt fully hit yet so we will see what happens. I wonder if when it does take over if the GOP will finally take it more seriously since 99% of those dying (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/07/04/more-than-99-us-covid-deaths-involve-unvaccinated-people/7856564002/) are those unvaccinated.

[Montmorency]

Props to the UK for maintaining reasonable levels of testing over the past 4 calm months,whereas US testing rates have been collapsing continuously since Biden's inauguration.


As the article says throughout this mainly applies to the USA. Most other countries have cost controls and vastly less inefficient systems where doctors are not bribed to prescribe by brand.

Wouldn't Baker's point about patent incentives leading to secrecy and duplication of effort in the research process apply anywhere in the world?


The current system is far from perfect. If governments don't like it then why haven't they started their own companies to discover new, better or at least cheaper molecules?

I did just mention Cuba... but maybe that's unfair as they're a socialist country that famously chose to specialize in healthcare and biomed 50 years ago.

I recall in recent years Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Jeremy Corbyn have all proposed expansion of publicly-funded research or establishment of state pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity of last resort.

While searching on Corbyn's platform I found the following article (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2019/10/why-would-government-make-its-own-drugs) among the first results; it is fascinating to the point where I reprint it in whole.


Since cystic fibrosis was identified as a disease in 1938, doctors have worked to alleviate its symptoms, which include debilitating, persistent lung infections. But a cure for the disease, which is caused by a genetic mutation, remained out of reach.

Then, in the early years of this decade, hope began to emerge in the form of ivacaftor, a new “precision” drug that helped improve the chemistry within the sufferer’s cells. It was not a total cure, but patients spoke of being able to breathe normally for the first time.

This hope, however, came at a price. After ivacaftor was approved for use in the US, it was sold – under the trade name Kalydeco – for more than $300,000 per year, for the rest of the patient’s life.

The NHS is currently negotiating with Vertex, the American pharmaceutical company that developed ivacaftor, to bring another drug based on it to patients in the UK. It has been negotiating for three years. Vertex says that, to recoup the costs of developing this drug, which is called Orkambi, it must charge £105,000 a year per patient. The NHS says it can’t afford to pay. Meanwhile, desperate parents are paying to import the drug from Argentina for their children. MPs on the Health and Social Care Committee have received more than 300 requests to intervene.

Perhaps the most popular policy announced by Jeremy Corbyn at the Labour Party Conference at the end of last month was the intention to use “compulsory licensing” – making or importing the drug without the patent-holder’s consent – to bring drugs such as Orkambi to NHS patients in an affordable way. A state-run manufacturer would be set up to produce such drugs where necessary. A poll, conducted by ComRes on behalf of the PR firm MHP, gave the policy an 86 per cent approval rating.

Not everyone was on board, however. The Sun decried “Soviet-style rules on drug firms”. The Telegraph agreed that this “drastic regulation... would stifle research and development leading to fewer options for patients”.

And while Labour delegates, as a group, can be relied upon to be suspicious of Big Pharma, this is an industry that employs nearly 70,000 people in this country in well-paid, sustainable, satisfying work. In 2015, the pharma industry paid £8.6bn in taxes. The sector supports a wider “life sciences” industry that contributes an estimated £30bn a year to the economy. This is not something the British economy can afford to lose, especially now.

As the industry tells it, the biggest challenge to Labour’s policy is that, without intellectual property, companies have no incentive to do medical research. While the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI) conceded that “the situation on Orkambi is rare, but it is clearly unacceptable”, it also argued that “the seizure of new research... would completely undermine the system for developing new medicines”.

But Professor Karl Claxton, a health economist at the University of York and a founding member of the Technology Appraisal Committee at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, thinks such a policy would actually benefit research in the long run. Without such regulation, he explains, pharmaceutical companies are given perverse incentives “to invest a lot of money in very high-cost developments, with marginal and very uncertain benefits”. A clear symptom of this, he says, is the huge sum invested in parallel research by different companies on the same drugs and diseases. [cf. Baker]

Pharmaceutical companies, he argues, need “a clear signal of how much the health system can afford to pay for the benefits of any development they might invest in”. Without this information they can waste billions developing the same drugs as their competitors. Meanwhile, “healthcare systems around the world are then confronted with incredibly high-cost medicines”, and are forced to choose between marginal benefits for a few patients, or reduced outcomes overall.

Claxton was involved in the creation of a similar policy in Canada, now passed into law, in which the national government tells pharmaceutical companies what it can afford to pay for the benefits of their products, in order to inform investment and research. In rare instances, “when an originator manufacturer refuses to sell, but we know that they could sell at the rebated price and still make a profit”, the government would decide to view the situation as “non-use of patent”. In many countries, the failure to use a patent, trademark or other intellectual property can be used as a means to revoke it.

But for any government to have “a credible threat” in this situation, Claxton says it would need “a generics manufacturer that will be willing to take up that compulsory license”. And to be able to make that happen, the company would probably need to be publicly owned or managed.

Melissa Barber, a doctoral student at Harvard University who researches public health policy, points out that a government could also use compulsory licensing to import a medication. This, too, would have its benefits, in that it is “easier and more probable”, but also because at the moment, “a lot of drugs are only manufactured by one or two firms – if you have an earthquake where that factory is, you’ve got an issue”.

Barber also points out that compulsory licenses aren’t only used for medicines. “More compulsory licenses have been issued in the United States, probably, than anywhere else,” she points out, and examples include “medical devices, industrial technologies, and military technologies”. These licenses have included software, petroleum technologies and tow-truck parts.

Dzintars Gotham, a researcher and consultant to the World Health Organisation, adds that the US and Canada have already used the threat of compulsory licensing, when it was necessary to force a manufacturer to alter the price of an antibiotic that treats anthrax.

Gotham, too, sees the Labour policy as relatively uncontroversial. While compulsory licensing of new drugs is uncommon in wealthier countries, he says, “it’s completely in line with what the United Nations has been recommending for the last 20 years. It’s comfortably enshrined in international law that governments can do that.”

UK law even has an extra provision, called “crown use”, in which the government may authorise anyone to make, import or use a product without the consent of the patent-holder, “for the services of the Crown”. The Crown in this sense means the state, not the monarch.

But while such abilities are legally established, Gotham says the idea that the government would suddenly begin manufacturing its own drugs across the board is “fearmongering”, and “unprecedented in any country in the world”. The more likely situation, he says, would be that “if NICE negotiates reasonably and in good faith with an originator for an entire year, and cannot agree on a price, NICE faces two options – either they give up, the UK doesn’t have access to the drug and patients suffer, or they say, well, at this juncture we’re going to use a crown use license.”

Karl Claxton says he wouldn’t necessarily expect the government to use this stick at all. His hope is that the “compulsory license option will be used never, or once”.

And it is not only patented medicines that are expensive. Where generics – medicines that have fallen out of patent– are made by one company, they, too, can be subject to huge price hikes. The cost of quetiapine, which is used to treat serious mental illnesses, rose by more than £110 per pill – an increase of over 7,000 per cent – from 2017-18, while at least 32 other drugs have had more than tenfold increases in price this decade. These are drugs that are more than 20 years old, on which the only cost is manufacturing. “I think there's a really good case to say that we can't rely on market competition to get us the generics that we need,” observes Claxton.

Advocates of the policy also point out that the government has in many cases already paid for research. For example, the medicine on which the NHS has spent the most money overall is adalimumab, sold under the brand name Humira. Until its patent expired in October last year, Humira was used by around 46,000 patients in the UK at a total cost of over £400m a year (a lower-cost generic version is now used). For scale, the budget of the Manchester Royal Infirmary – the largest hospital in the country’s busiest hospital trust – has a budget of £380m.

But the technology behind adalimumab was developed in a laboratory owned by the British government’s Medical Research Council. That technology – monoclonal antibodies – is now behind six of the ten most profitable drugs in the world, supporting a market for drugs companies that is worth £90bn a year. The government pays once to develop medicines and again to use them – and they cost a lot more once they’ve been shown to work.

While both sides can argue the economics and the fairness of such policies, there are some policymakers – and not only on the left – for whom they are becoming inevitable. Ongoing medical crises have forced some governments to disregard patents, most notably South Africa, where the government has spent a decade fighting the pharmaceutical industry for access to cheaper generic versions of the retroviral drugs needed to treat HIV, which affects almost 20 per cent of the country’s adult population.

This is not a situation that policymakers should assume will be confined to the global south. Jim O’Neill, the former Conservative Treasury minister and chair of the government’s review of anti-microbial resistance, said in March that state-run “utilities” might be the only solution to the growing crisis. O’Neill’s 2014 review warned that antimicrobial resistance, if not addressed, could lead to ten million deaths a year by 2050 and cost $100trn. Crises of such magnitude are not solved by the market alone.

Also, Baker's suggestions to achieve similar results with public monies and regulation but not necessarily with public industry:


The basic logic of a system of publicly financed medical research would be that the government expand its current funding for biomedical research, which now goes primarily through NIH, by an amount that is roughly equal to the patent supported research currently being conducted by the pharmaceutical industry. Pharma, the industry trade group, puts this funding level at roughly $50 billion or 0.3 percent of GDP, a figure that is also consistent with data from the National Science Foundation. That would be a reasonable target, with the idea that the public funding would eventually replace the patent-supported funding.17 Adding in research on medical equipment and tests would increase this figure by $12–15 billion.17

In order to minimize the risk of political interference and also the risk that excessive bureaucracy could impede innovation, it would be desirable that the bulk of this funding would be committed to private firms under long-term contracts (e.g. 10–15 years).19 This would allow for the imposition of clear rules that apply to all research directly or indirectly funded by the public sector, without a need for micro-management. The contracts would be subject to regular oversight for their duration, but the contractors would be free to set priorities for which lines of research to support. The contractors could also freely subcontract, just as the major pharmaceutical companies do now. They could also use their funds to buy research produced by other companies, just as the pharmaceutical industry does at present. As the period for a contract approached its end, the contractor could attempt to gain a new long-term contract. It would argue its case based on its track record with the prior contract.

The basic rules governing these contracts would be that all the results stemming from publicly financed research would be placed in the public domain, subject to copyleft-type restrictions.20 This means that any patents for drugs, research tools, or other intermediate steps developed by contractors or subcontractors, would be freely available for anyone to use, subject to the condition that they also would place any subsequent patents in the public domain. Similarly, test results used to get approval for a drug from Food and Drug Administration would be available for any generic producer to use to gain acceptance for their own product.

In addition to requiring that patents be placed in the public domain, there would also be a requirement that all research findings be made available to the public as quickly as practical. This means, for example, that results from pre-clinical testing be made available as soon as they are known, so that other researchers could benefit from the findings. This should prevent unnecessary duplication and allow for more rapid progress in research. These restrictions would apply to both direct contractors and any sub-contractors that were hired.21

This disclosure requirement would not be a negative for participants in the context of this sort of open-source contract system. Because the goal is to generate useful innovations rather than procure a patent, a contractor would be able to make an effective case for the usefulness of their work even if competitors were the ones that ultimately used it to develop a useful drug or medical device. The incentive in this system is to disseminate any interesting findings as widely as possible in the hope that other researchers will be able to build upon them.

The contracting system in the Defense Department can be seen as a loose model for contracting in pharmaceutical research. When the Defense Department is planning a major project, such as a new fighter plane or submarine, it will typically sign a contract with a major corporation like General Electric or Lockheed. The contractor will generally subcontract much of the project, because it is not prepared to do all the work in-house. The same would be the case with a contractor doing research developing pharmaceuticals or medical equipment, although the expected results will be somewhat less clearly specified. While that is a disadvantage of contracting with medical research, because the outcomes will be less well-defined, a major advantage is that there would be no excuse for secrecy in the medical research process. There is a clear justification for secrecy in military research, because it wouldn’t make sense to allow potential enemies to have access to the latest military technology. By contrast, biomedical research will be advanced more quickly by allowing the greatest possible access.

Secrecy has often been an important factor allowing military contractors to conceal waste or fraud, because only a very select group of people have access to the specific terms of a contract and the nature of the work a company is doing. In the case of bio-medical research, there is no reason that the terms of the contract would not be fully public. And, all research findings would have to be posted in a timely manner. With such rules, it should be possible to quickly identify any contractor whose output clearly did not correspond to the money they were receiving from the government. For all the instances of waste and fraud in military contracting, it nonetheless has been effective in giving the U.S. the most technologically advanced military in the world.

Because the system of patent protection and rules on data exclusivity is now enshrined in a large number of international agreements that would be difficult to circumvent, it is important that an alternative system work around this structure. As proposed here, patent protection under current rules would still be available to drug companies conducting research with their own funds. However, they would run the risk that at the point where they have an FDA-approved drug, there is a new drug available at generic prices that is comparably effective. This sort of competition would likely force the company to sell its drug at a price comparable to the generic, leaving it little margin for recouping its research costs.

Simply the risk of this sort of generic competition should make the current system of patent-financed drug development unprofitable, especially if the industry’s claims about its research costs are anywhere close to being accurate. In this way, the existing rules on patents can be left in place, even as a new system of publicly financed research comes to dominate the process of drug development.

Switching all at once to a system of fully funded research would likely be a difficult step both politically and practically. This would involve a radical transformation of a massive industry of a sort that is rarely seen in the U.S. or anywhere else. Fortunately, there is an intermediate step that can be used to advance toward a system of fully funded research which would offer enormous benefits in its own right.

There is a simple and basic divide in the research process between the pre-clinical phase of drug development and the clinical phase. The pre-clinical phase involves the development of new drugs or new uses of existing drugs and preliminary tests on lab animals. The clinical phase involves testing on humans and eventually proceeding to the FDA approval process if the earlier phases of testing are successful. The clinical testing phase accounts for more than 60 percent of spending on research, although this number is reduced if a return is imputed on the pre-clinical testing phase, because there is a considerably longer lag between pre-clinical expenditures and an approved drug than with clinical tests.

The clinical testing process involves a standard set of procedures, and is therefore far more routinized than the pre-clinical portion of drug development. For this reason, the clinical testing portion of the drug development process could be more easily adapted to a program of direct public funding. The model could be the same as discussed earlier, with the government contracting on a long-term basis with existing or new drug companies. However, the contracts would specify the testing of drugs in particular areas. As was the case described earlier, all results would be fully public, and all patent and related rights associated with the testing process would be put in the public domain subject to copyleft-type rules. This would likely mean that in many cases the contracting companies would have to buy up rights to a compound(s) before they initiated testing, because another company held a patent on it.

There are many advantages to separating out the clinical testing portion of drug development rather than attempting to fully replace patent supported research all at once. First, it would be much easier to slice off particular areas to experiment with public funding. For example, it should be possible to set aside a certain amount of funding for clinical trials for new cancer or heart drugs without worrying about fully replacing private support for research in these areas. Also, it should be possible to obtain dividends much more quickly in the form of new drugs being available at generic prices. The time lag between the beginning of preclinical research and an approved drug can be as long as 20 years. The clinical testing process typically takes less than eight years and can be considerably shorter if a drug’s benefits become quickly evident in trials.

Another important early dividend from the public funding of clinical trials is that the results of these trials would be posted as soon as they are available. This means that researchers and doctors would not only have access to the summary statistics showing the success rates in the treatment group relative to the control group, but they would also have access to the data on specific individuals in the trial.27 This would allow them to independently analyze the data to determine if there were differences in outcomes based on age, gender, or other factors. It would also allow for researchers to determine the extent to which interactions with other drugs affected the effectiveness of a new drug.

In addition, the public disclosure of test results may put pressure on the pharmaceutical industry to change its practices. The problem of misreporting or concealing results in order to promote a drug is one that arises in the process of clinical testing. While misrepresented results can be a problem at any stage in the drug development process, misrepresentations at the pre-clinical phase are unlikely to have health consequences because they will be uncovered in clinical testing. The problem of patients being prescribed drugs that are less effective than claimed or possible harmful to certain patients due to misrepresentations is entirely an issue with clinical testing. If experiments with a limited number of publicly funded clinical trials can change the norms on disclosure of test results, they will have made an enormous contribution to public health.


I am sure many companies would be delighted to get a technology transfer as well as companies. Why isn't ti's true of lithium battery development, solar panels, and so on and so on?

That's even more important! Developing new energy generation and storage technology and essentially gifting it to India, Africa, and Latin America (while also heavily investing in its infrastructuration there, so that it doesn't remain on paper) is the prerequisite to global climate adaptation.

[rory_20_uk]

Wouldn't Baker's point about patent incentives leading to secrecy and duplication of effort in the research process apply anywhere in the world?

I did just mention Cuba... but maybe that's unfair as they're a socialist country that famously chose to specialize in healthcare and biomed 50 years ago.

I recall in recent years Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Jeremy Corbyn have all proposed expansion of publicly-funded research or establishment of state pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity of last resort.

Also, Baker's suggestions to achieve similar results with public monies and regulation but not necessarily with public industry:

That's even more important! Developing new energy generation and storage technology and essentially gifting it to India, Africa, and Latin America (while also heavily investing in its infrastructuration there, so that it doesn't remain on paper) is the prerequisite to global climate adaptation.

Patents do encourage secrecy and duplication in every industry. Ideally they would not exist, but that is a very radical change. Perhaps more should be forced to licence patents to competitors - or even have them end as is the case with Pharma. This I think also should apply to Copyright of materials. Why this is the case on (for example) 5G networks but not everywhere I do not know.

If companies have to publish everything, why on earth put in the money to create something when you can just pick and choose from the work of others. China has massively benefitted from intellectual property theft and appropriation over the years; yes, there are some cases of open source working well such as Linux / RISC V chips but the key factor appears to be that people can make iterative improvements whereas certainly Clinical Trials are pretty much have massive up front cost and are extremely controlled. Already we have the issue with no one bothering to find new uses for old molecules since where's the payback? To get companies to invest in Orphan conditions theyve even tweaked the rules to give more exclusivity

Countries do seem to be happy to subsidise companies for little if any gain - I think that much of this money should be given as a share purchase so the rewards are shared as they would be with any other investor (and I am sure there are much more complex ways of this to be undertaken - but not just "here's free money - we look forward to receiving any taxes you don't manage to evade"). That this isn't done makes me wonder if they have found it easier to bribe key figures.

~:smoking:

[ReluctantSamurai]

That this isn't done makes me wonder if they have found it easier to bribe key figures. Exactly what's done here in the US: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2021/05/senator-chris-coons-vaccine-patent-remarks-csis-cold-war-red-scare You don't think he's bought and paid for.....?

[Montmorency]

If companies have to publish everything, why on earth put in the money to create something when you can just pick and choose from the work of others.

As Baker and others point out, patents do encourage companies to seek rent by emphasizing alternate monetizations of existing IPs and products. In the scenario where long-term government contracts replace patent-driven research funding (remember, this is an alternative to outright nationalization of R&D or overturning of the international IP regime), the companies have a guaranteed revenue stream to pursue innovations as long as they maintain the terms, rather than just gambling on the potential to lock in future licensing or purchasing contracts at an inflated price. I suppose the idea is a two-track system where public-supported research with openness requirements that other companies can later reap the fruits of (so long as they follow the same requirements themselves) will gradually "crowd out" riskier patent-driven research. It sounds similar to the theory of public insurance options at any rate, where individuals and firms are expected to over time prefer to offload onto a cheap and reliable insurance policy rather than haggle with opaque and fragmented markets. As opposed to quickly banning or overriding private insurance by fiat...

[rory_20_uk]

And that would be fine - governments merely need to undertake the R&D to get those assets to licence to others. There are a few that are already licenced from governments - Dysport for example was created from the UK R&D for biological weaponry and is licenced to Ipsen; the patent for Insulin is held by the University of Toronto and if the ideals were for the companies with the licence to produce cheap insulin that clearly hasn't happened.

This concepts of governments licencing IP for the good of all could cover all industries - I am sure that NASA has more than a few patents. And I wouldn't mind betting they give better deals to American companies than those abroad. If this were to work it would have to be truly open to all... Which again would be a seismic change from the current system of entrenched interests.

For a "Democracy" like the USA to exclude those who make vast sums from the system to passively accept this would require the Legislative branch of government to put the people above their own venal interests. Which there is no evidence of happening any time soon.

If the USA were to spend a fraction of its wealth it lavishes on the Military to this project it would have a portfolio of patents of massive scale within the year - especially if it hoovers up those from companies that have failed.

So I think that this concept is a good idea. There just appears to be no interest in any of the key players which would need to do something to do so.

~:smoking:

[ReluctantSamurai]

Well, governments and the corporate world better figure it out soon, because we are now up to Lambda:

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-lambda-variant-spreads-across-latin-america/a-58035249

While this new variant doesn't seem to be worse than Gamma or Delta, it's only a matter of time before the SARS virus figures out a way to flip the bird at vaccines. If new infections are allowed to run rampant in poorer countries because of the lack of vaccines and other medical remediation, we may get a strange ironic twist of the cult classic "The Omega Code". But instead of "he who controls Jerusalem in the final days will control the world", it could very well be "he who controls the COVID vaccines will control the world."

:shrug:

[Montmorency]

Well, governments and the corporate world better figure it out soon, because we are now up to Lambda:

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-lambda-variant-spreads-across-latin-america/a-58035249

While this new variant doesn't seem to be worse than Gamma or Delta, it's only a matter of time before the SARS virus figures out a way to flip the bird at vaccines. If new infections are allowed to run rampant in poorer countries because of the lack of vaccines and other medical remediation, we may get a strange ironic twist of the cult classic "The Omega Code". But instead of "he who controls Jerusalem in the final days will control the world", it could very well be "he who controls the COVID vaccines will control the world."

:shrug:


The value of vaccination (https://www.ft.com/content/fa4f248a-a476-491d-a5ce-f128360e9f24).

https://i.imgur.com/1h2G1I3.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/XBiqpV6.jpg

At this point the Republican Party in the US is really only killing Republicans.

There's an interesting mismatch between the success of some early predictions of the intensity of the pandemic, and of its overall course.

[ReluctantSamurai]

As if we needed more confirmation that the US has gone completely off the rails in terms of public sanity:

https://www.naccho.org/uploads/downloadable-resources/Proposed-Limits-on-Public-Health-Authority-Dangerous-for-Public-Health-FINAL-5.24.21pm.pdf


In recent months, at least 15 state legislatures have passed or are considering measures to limit severely the legal authority of public health agencies to protect the public from serious illness, injury, and death. Other states may consider such legislation in the future. It is foreseeable that these laws will lead to preventable tragedies.

Specifically, this report finds that dissatisfaction and anger at perceived overreaches by governors and public health officials in response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to an onslaught of legislative proposals to eliminate or limit the emergency powers and public health authority used by these officials. Public health officials are also being threatened personally.

Some examples of the legislative insanity:

-Prohibit requiring masks in any situation, including cases of active tuberculosis [North Dakota]

-Block the closure of businesses necessary to prevent the spread of disease, allowing for super spreader venues [Kansas]

-Ban the use of quarantine [Montana]

-Block state hospitals and universities from requiring vaccinations for employees and students in dormitories to protect state residents [Arizona]

-Strip local governments, including local health agencies, of the ability to respond to local conditions in an emergency [Texas]

-Set arbitrary time limit for emergency orders [Florida]

-Give unilateral power to legislatures to stop public health actions [Ohio]

Excuse me...~:eek: Banning masks being used to help prevent the spread of highly infectious, and deadly diseases like TB? Banning the use of quarantine during an infectious disease outbreak? Banning a local health department from responding to a health emergency without approval from legislators? It's apparently not enough to cause the SARS-2 pandemic to be much more severe, and last far longer than it had to. Now there needs to be laws that ensure that thousands more will die because we ham-string healthcare institutions from doing the job they were created for, all under the guise of "protecting 1st Amendment Rights". We've gone completely mad...:crazy:

And the rationale for this madness?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/23/republicans-public-health-agencies-alec-coronavirus


“The supposed rationale is that a lot happened during Covid. People didn’t like being restricted so much,” said Lori Tremmel Freeman, CEO at the National Association of County and City Health Officials (Naccho).

Lawmakers across at least nine states have zeroed in on the emergency powers of health departments to limit how people gather in places such as churches, schools and businesses. Conservative model legislation has described these limitations as orders that “infringe on the rights of private parties”.

So the sense of entitlement here in the states is going well beyond the arguments about wearing masks, and taking vaccines, into the realm of passing legislation that endangers the health and well being of everyone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7AinOjDiNQ

Too bad we don't have an abyss to kick these morons into...:furious3:

And just who is ALEC [no not THAT Alec] but the American Legislative Exchange Council, who are behind much of this effort to hobble health agencies?

https://www.alecexposed.org/wiki/ALEC_Exposed


Through the secretive meetings of the American Legislative Exchange Council, corporate lobbyists and state legislators vote as equals on ‘model bills’ to change our rights that often benefit the corporations’ bottom line at public expense. ALEC is a pay-to-play operation where corporations buy a seat and a vote on ‘task forces’ to advance their legislative wish lists and can get a tax break for donations, effectively passing these lobbying costs on to taxpayers.

Along with legislators, corporations have membership in ALEC. Corporations sit on ALEC task forces and vote with legislators to approve “model” bills. They have their own corporate governing board which meets jointly with the legislative board. (ALEC says that corporations do not vote on the board.) Corporations fund almost all of ALEC's operations.

Participating legislators, overwhelmingly conservative Republicans, then bring those proposals home and introduce them in statehouses across the land as their own brilliant ideas and important public policy innovations—without disclosing that corporations crafted and voted on the bills.

ALEC boasts that it has over 1,000 of these bills introduced by legislative members every year, with one in every five of them enacted into law. ALEC describes itself as a “unique,” “unparalleled” and “unmatched” organization.

ALEC is well funded:


More than 98% of ALEC's revenues come from sources other than legislative dues, such as corporations, corporate trade groups, and corporate foundations. Each corporate member pays an annual fee of between $7,000 and $25,000 a year, and if a corporation participates in any of the nine task forces, additional fees apply, from $2,500 to $10,000 each year. ALEC also receives direct grants from corporations, such as $1.4 million from ExxonMobil from 1998-2009. It has also received grants from some of the biggest foundations funded by corporate CEOs in the country, such as: the Koch family Charles G. Koch Foundation (https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Charles_G._Koch_Foundation), the Koch-managed Claude R. Lambe Foundation (https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Claude_R._Lambe_Charitable_Foundation), the Scaife (https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Scaife) family Allegheny Foundation (https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Allegheny_Foundation), the Coors (https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Coors) family Castle Rock Foundation (https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Castle_Rock_Foundation), to name a few. Less than 2% of ALEC’s funding comes from “Membership Dues” of $50 per year paid by state legislators, a steeply discounted price that may run afoul of state gift bans. For more, see CMD's special report on ALEC funding and spending here (https://www.prwatch.org/news/2011/07/10887/cmd-special-report-alecs-funding-and-spending).

The who's who of current and past members is telling:


ALEC members, speakers, alumni, and award winners are a “who’s who” of the extreme right. ALEC has given awards to: Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, George H.W. Bush, Charles and David Koch, Richard de Vos, Tommy Thompson, Gov. John Kasich, Gov. Rick Perry, Congressman Mark Foley (intern sex scandal), and Congressman Billy Tauzin. ALEC alumni include: Vice President Mike Pence, former Speaker of the House John Boehner, former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Congressman Joe Wilson, (who called President Obama a “liar” during the State of the Union address), former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, former House Speaker Tom DeLay, Andrew Card, Donald Rumsfeld (1985 Chair of ALEC’s Business Policy Board), Governor Scott Walker, Governor Jan Brewer, and more. Featured speakers have included: Milton Friedman, Newt Gingrich, Dick Cheney, Dan Quayle, George Allen, Jessie Helms, Pete Coors, Governor Mitch Daniels and more.

Maybe all these folks should be placed in designated states of their own choosing, and then the borders patrolled by the SPPF (Snake Plissken Police Force)...:rolleyes:

But seriously, we are going to be so screwed when the next pandemic comes around (as it inevitably will), even as we struggle with the current one...:shrug:

[Montmorency]

Is this (https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-large-numbers-of-patients-will-develop-complications) as bad as it sounds?


In severe cases of COVID-19, an overactive immune response to the presence of the SARS-Co-V2 virus may occur, which may also cause damage to other organs of the body.

Complications related to damage of the blood vessels, kidneys, eyes, brain, skin, heart, and gastrointestinal organs may result from severe SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Current data focusing on mortality outcomes from COVI-19 in the United Kingdom demonstrate that 26% of patients admitted to the hospital with SARS-Co-V2 infection die from their illness.

[...]

The study took place in 302 U.K. healthcare facilities between January 17 and August 4, 2020. It enrolled 80,388 patients 19 years or older hospitalized with highly suspected or confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of these, the researchers included 73,197 patients in the analysis.

The average age of patients included in the study was 71 years, with the majority being male (56%) and white (74%). Eighty-one percent of the patients had underlying conditions at baseline.

The study measured the incidence of in-hospital neurological, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, complex respiratory, acute kidney injury, and other systemic complications. The trial also examined the patient’s ability for self-care.

Nurses and medical students collected data at specified intervals: on admission, on days 1, 3, 9 of the hospital stay, and at discharge (or at 28 days if not discharged).

Of the patients included in the final analysis, the study reported that about 32% died during the trial and 50% experienced at least one complication. Approximately 44% of those that survived had at least one complication.

The rate of having at least one complication ranged from 27% in patients aged 19–29 years with no comorbidities up to 58% in patients 60–69 years with two or more underlying conditions. The complication rates tended to increase with age and be higher in patients with preexisting medical conditions and in patients designated male at birth.

Dr. Thomas Drake, a co-author of the study from the University of Edinburgh, U.K., commented for MNT on the findings: “Complications from COVID-19 affect nearly all groups admitted to hospital with severe disease. Although people over 50 years were at the highest risk of developing complications, people under the age of 50 years were also very likely to develop complications, which was a real surprise.”

In survivors with a complication, about 27% had a decreased ability to care for themselves.

Over the past year it seems to have been constantly reinforced that CV19 is particularly apt to cause systemic damage with chronic morbidities.

[Montmorency]

According to this (https://www.axios.com/chart-vaccinated-americans-delta-covid-cases-b93710e3-cfc1-4248-9c33-474b00947a90.html) visualization of data on breakthrough infections, "of the 164 million vaccinated Americans, around 125,000 [0.077%] people have tested positive for breakthrough infections and 0.001% have died."

Though 0.001% have died, 0.004% were hospitalized, which unless I'm missing something glaringly-obvious suggests that even ~25% of vaccinated persons needing hospitalization will die of their illness.

Which reminds me of my post right above this one:


Current data focusing on mortality outcomes from COVI-19 in the United Kingdom demonstrate that 26% of patients admitted to the hospital with SARS-Co-V2 infection die from their illness.

And the data underlying that assessment was from a year or more ago! If I were more diligent I would investigate whether this constitutes a general trend.


By the end of July, the EU had decisively surpassed the United States in vaccination rate, despite the large head start enjoyed by the US. For example, at the beginning of May Sweden had 27% vaxxing to America's 45%, but the gap was closed by mid-July. But isn't that the story with America-everything over the past 50 years? I suppose slow and steady really does win the race. On the other hand, the cresting wave here has concentrated minds among institutional actors in coercing vaccination (we generally refuse to just issue outright mandates yet), with a small concomitant rise in daily doses administered over the past days.

In less salutary news (https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-pfizer-moderna-raise-vaccine-prices-in-eu/a-58726720) for the EU, Pfizer and Moderna have been raising the price per dose. I can't find information on how, or whether, prices have changed for the EU, or for the UK or US, before, but depending on that balance the strenuous effort the EU put last year into securing relatively-low prices as a primary priority in its vaccine program looks even more questionable.

Speaking of vaccine prices, according to Oxfam (https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/vaccine-monopolies-make-cost-vaccinating-world-against-covid-least-5-times-more) the vaccine monopolies allow for the collection of a handsome income.



New analysis by the Alliance shows that the firms Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are charging governments as much as $41 billion above the estimated cost of production. Colombia, for example, has potentially overpaid by as much as $375 million for its doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, in comparison to the estimated cost price.

Despite a rapid rise in COVID cases and deaths across the developing world, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have sold over 90 percent of their vaccines so far to rich countries, charging up to 24 times the potential cost of production. Last week Pfizer/BioNTech announced it would licence a South African company to fill and package 100 million doses for use in Africa, but this is a drop in the ocean of need. Neither company have agreed to fully transfer vaccine technology and know-how with any capable producers in developing countries, a move that could increase global supply, drive down prices and save millions of lives.

Analysis of production techniques for the leading mRNA type vaccines produced by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna ―which were only developed thanks to public funding to the tune of $8.3 billion― suggest these vaccines could be made for as little as $1.20 a dose. Yet COVAX, the scheme set up to help countries get access to COVID vaccines, has been paying, on average, nearly five times more. COVAX has also struggled to get enough doses and at the speed required, because of the inadequate supply and the fact that rich nations have pushed their way to the front of the queue by willingly paying excessive prices.
ReluctantSamurai

Ya think if Biden promised to donate a few hundred million doses (maybe 90% of all remaining deliveries for 2021) on account of 'Every American who wants one has one, and we can now fight the virus abroad so we don't have to fight it at home. Freedom!' we would see a run on stock in Republican areas?


Yet the EU reportedly paid even higher prices for its second order from Pfizer/BioNTech.
[...]
The EU may have overpaid for their 1.96 billion Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines by as much as €31 billion.

The UK alone has potentially paid £1.8 billion more than the cost of production for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines ―enough money to pay every worker in its National Health Service (NHS) a bonus of more than £1000.
[...]
The UK is reported to have paid £15 a dose for the Pfizer vaccine and has ordered 100 million doses. For Moderna they are reported to have paid £25 per dose and have ordered 17 million doses. If these two vaccines were produced at the production price estimated by Public Citizen, the UK would have saved £1.8 billion

If all the above so far is current, the EU has indeed lost any price advantage (which was also negated in the first place by choosing to order 4 doses per person, as I pointed out months ago).


Or, ignoring all else, a couple billion extra isn't a big deal for a rich continent. The EU is still currently at the level of fiscal discipline of Obama's 2009 stimulus (slow progress from the disastrous austerity of the then-contemporary EU). I'm pretty sure every single EU country can currently raise 10-year bonds with <1% or negative nominal interest rates. To say nothing of Eurobonds: the 800 billion Euro program that I'm referring to is reportedly raising that partly through 10-year bonds with yield of 0.086% (https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-other-major-banks-excluded-from-landmark-european-bond-program-11623766326). Take the free :daisy: money and do something useful! Make more!
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/financial_markets_and_interest_rates/long_term_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/eu-will-be-big-new-player-in-bond-market-with-likely-triple-a-asset-59624136

[ReluctantSamurai]

Ya think if Biden promised to donate a few hundred million doses (maybe 90% of all remaining deliveries for 2021) on account of 'Every American who wants one has one, and we can now fight the virus abroad so we don't have to fight it at home. Freedom!' we would see a run on stock in Republican areas?

I think the 100,000 new daily cases, mostly from the Delta variant is already affecting that run on getting vaccinated....:deal2:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I think the 100,000 new daily cases, mostly from the Delta variant is already affecting that run on getting vaccinated....:deal2:

My anecdotal experience coheres with this sentiment. Apparently, once you know someone personally under the age of 50 who has been dead or maimed by this illness, the concept of getting vaccinated seems less onerous.

Nice to know that a ballpeen hammer to the forehead will still get the attention of most folks. Sadly, only 'most.'

[Montmorency]

Another cool resource, this one visualizing the progress of Covid variants.
https://covariants.org/per-country

https://i.imgur.com/C1uGHxL.png

[ReluctantSamurai]

**SIGH**

How many times are we going to have to see this:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/09/austin-catastrophe-epicenter-again-pandemic


The Texas trauma service area that includes Austin only has six available ICU beds (https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f), 499 available hospital beds and 313 available ventilators – a stunning dearth of resources for a population nearly 2.4 million strong.

As a whole, Texas currently ranks second behind Florida for the highest daily average Covid-19 cases, with infections up 134% over the last 14 days. (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/texas-covid-cases.html) And between early February and mid-July, roughly 99.5% of Texans who died from the virus were unvaccinated, the Texas Tribune reported (https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/21/coronavirus-texas-vaccinated-deaths/).

Meanwhile, local officials who want to implement proven public health measures to mitigate the spread have been hamstrung by Texas governor Greg Abbott, who has implemented a sweeping order restricting vaccine and mask mandates (https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/press/EO-GA-38_continued_response_to_the_COVID-19_disaster_IMAGE_07-29-2021.pdf).

Too bad elected officials seem to have a defacto "qualified immunity' when it comes to killing their own constituents...:shame:

....and Wizard's First Rule applies to people like this:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/08/rightwing-radio-host-dick-farrel-anti-vaxxer-dies-covid

Still think Dr. Fauci is a “power-tripping lying freak”? Oh yeah, you don't have an opinion anymore......you're dead:oops:

[Montmorency]

At the end of June in the US, the positivity rate in testing was 2%. Now it's pushing past 15%, the highest since April 2020.

Florida and Texas are severely hit by all accounts, with up to 0.1% of Duval County residents (Jacksonville, Florida) in the hospital with Covid at any one time. Thankfully, their mask mandate bans (that is, bans on requiring masks) are being successfully stalled in the courts or openly defied for now.

(There are probably more reports of hospitals being overwhelmed nowadays because the hospitalizations are more geographically concentrated...)

[Montmorency]

What happens (https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1426201994931310597) when violent anti-rationalism becomes a political movement.


The Delta waves in the US and Canada, a striking contrast. Fully vaccinated of total population:
Canada 64%
US 50%

(I would also point to differences in social distancing and masking behaviors/policies, among other things.)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8ri5TbUcAE04l2?format=jpg&name=small
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8rjDuDVoAAx69x?format=jpg&name=small
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8rjBoWVEAEiKGg?format=jpg&name=360x360

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Too bad elected officials seem to have a defacto "qualified immunity' when it comes to killing their own constituents...:shame:

To be fair, many of those dying are those who've refused vaccination despite its easy availability for several months now. So its more of an "accessory before the fact" status in many cases.

[ReluctantSamurai]

To be fair [...]

Fair to whom? Whatever happened to all the conservative BS rhetoric about FREEEEEEEEEDOM to do whatever I want, constitutional rights, and keeping government out of people's lives? Yet two state governors in particular, DeSantis in Florida, and Abbot in Texas are eying their future political ambitions at the expense of their constituents. What exactly is the problem with letting city and county health experts decide what serves the public health interest best? Why letting those socialists determine what's best for people in the midst of this pandemic looks weak...:quiet: And we all know what that means when it comes to the "Trump Base"....:smash:

People are going to die unnecessarily because of the political actions of these two governors, and others, over and above those who subscribe to the Peoples Temple death cult....

I stand by my statement, politicians get qualified immunity when it comes to killing their own constituents...:inquisitive:

[ReluctantSamurai]

One of the best descriptions from the medical profession side of the pandemic I've read to date:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/health-care-workers-compassion-fatigue-vaccine-refusers/619716/

It's a short read, and I highly recommend it.

[Hooahguy]

In a similar vein, with doctors walking out (https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/75-florida-doctors-stage-walkout-in-protest-of-unvaccinated-covid-19-patients/) of a Florida hospital today to protest the unvaccinated, I think we are going to get to a point where we need to have a discussion about triaging and whether or not its ethical for doctors to treat the unvaccinated last, considering that in almost all cases, especially with today's full FDA approval (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58309254) of the Pfizer vaccine, the excuses just arent valid anymore (if they ever were).

[rory_20_uk]

I do wonder why Doctors have to work to an ethical standard - above their own wellbeing - whereas others can be utterly selfish with no consequence. This isn't about the patient, this is about the increased risk to the clinical staff around them.

~:smoking:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

In a similar vein, with doctors walking out (https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/75-florida-doctors-stage-walkout-in-protest-of-unvaccinated-covid-19-patients/) of a Florida hospital today to protest the unvaccinated, I think we are going to get to a point where we need to have a discussion about triaging and whether or not its ethical for doctors to treat the unvaccinated last, considering that in almost all cases, especially with today's full FDA approval (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58309254) of the Pfizer vaccine, the excuses just aren't valid anymore (if they ever were).

Triaging has, historically, been done based upon the medicos best estimate as to the survivability chances of the patient. In the civilian sector, triaging rarely labels anyone as "expectant" and writes them off. The obviously dead are the only ones likely not to be shipped to a trauma center/hospital of some type with the most grievously injured getting the most rapid transport to the highest caliber facility first and so on. The military DOES use the expectant tag, and tends to treat the most lightly wounded, and the most grievously wounded but having a good chance to make it first (the lightly wounded are patched up and returned to the mission, the others get the transport. The notably wounded but unable to return to the mission are, at least technically, supposed to be treated after those who can be returned to combat following the minimum needed to stabilize.

I am not sure I would want civilian medicine to triage using the expectant category -- at least outside catastrophe situations (which I acknowledge that Covid19 HAS created in some instances). I am not ready to support stupidity as a triage rule either. Yes, it is a stupid choice not to be vaccinated, but if we offer or deny/delay services based on this stupid choice, must we not do the same for other choices -- jaywalking at night, deep-frying your frozen turkey, etc.?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I do wonder why Doctors have to work to an ethical standard - above their own wellbeing - whereas others can be utterly selfish with no consequence. This isn't about the patient, this is about the increased risk to the clinical staff around them.

~:smoking:

Supposedly, the higher ethical standard is expected of those we label "professionals" -- physicians, attorneys, academics, etc. In part, because they stem back to the self-governing medieval guilds and are supposed to discipline themselves for the good of their profession.

As to how well this professionalism has been honored over the years....

[Montmorency]

Second opinion, please, but is this article (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58270098) suggesting that deliberate exposure to unmodified coronavirus may be a better long-term mitigation strategy than booster shots?


I am not sure I would want civilian medicine to triage using the expectant category -- at least outside catastrophe situations (which I acknowledge that Covid19 HAS created in some instances). I am not ready to support stupidity as a triage rule either. Yes, it is a stupid choice not to be vaccinated, but if we offer or deny/delay services based on this stupid choice, must we not do the same for other choices -- jaywalking at night, deep-frying your frozen turkey, etc.?

Split the difference: require vaccination to access medical services.


Supposedly, the higher ethical standard is expected of those we label "professionals" -- physicians, attorneys, academics, etc. In part, because they stem back to the self-governing medieval guilds and are supposed to discipline themselves for the good of their profession.

As to how well this professionalism has been honored over the years....

I may be wrong, but I'm somewhat confident that professional standards of marked professions as associations date back about a century or so, not substantially to any medieval precursors. Or to the extent there were medieval influences on the modern legal profession, they appear (https://scholar.smu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2120&context=smulr) to comprise oaths (https://sci-hub.do/10.2307/743688) of conduct decreed by Church or State (e.g. ecclesiastical proctors) more than the legacy of nascent associational practices.

A half-full way of looking at broad genealogy of professionalism from the first link (which doesn't address guilds or associations in medieval context at all):


When viewed in isolation, any one of these historical sets of standards may seem quite different than a set from another era, but when viewed in context of their broader 800-year evolution, the standards are remarkably similar over time. The
core concepts-litigation fairness, competence, loyalty, confidentiality, reasonable fees, and public service-have remained surprisingly constant. To be sure, modern codes have made significant advances, but the primary changes have come in the degree of detail and the regulatory effect of the standards of conduct, not in the core duties.

My understanding of the principle of medieval guilds, as reinforced in the limited discussion of advocates' associations in England, France, and Italy during the High Medieval and Renaissance eras in the second link, is that they were more about regulating the supply and mutual relationships of certain classes of labor than defining unique professional standards and rubrics of ethics, discipline, and practice.

Though this conclusion from the second link implies I underestimate the interventionism of craft guilds.


One might have expected that the professional associations of advocates would play a prominent role in enforcing standards of conduct, as other craft guilds often did, but that in fact seems not to have happened. Advocates' professional organizations showed little fervor for disciplining their erring members. Some even attempted to hobble efforts at enforcement. The Florentine guild of lawyers and notaries, for example, forbade its members to play any role in disciplinary proceedings against other guild members before the courts.82 Advocates thus left enforcement of professional standards largely in the hands of public authorities and injured clients, who might bring actions for damages against them.

I mean, why haven't all Trump-world lawyers been at least disbarred yet for their manifest and immanent excesses? :creep:


The Constitutions of Pope Benedict XII (1334-42), for example, directed papal judges and administrators to fine negligent advocates and in addition to see to it that they made good any damages that resulted from their failure to show due care. Advocates who proved persistently negligent were to be suspended or barred from practice. 83 A generation later, Gregory XI (1370-78) decreed that advocates must sign the libellus and other procedural documents submitted in their cases so that they could be held responsible for any errors in them.84 These papal constitutions simply formalized what had previously been the practice in many canonical courts.85 Advocates who maliciously betrayed their clients' secrets, who lied or misrepresented the client's position, or who engaged in other deceitful and dishonest practices were also liable for damages; in some circumstances they could be fined, deprived of ecclesiastical office, or disbarred.86 Clients, too, had an obligation to be careful. If the advocate made an erroneous admission or statement, his client could disavow it and thus protect himself from damage. The client who failed to disavow his advocate's words, however, became liable for the consequences of the error. 87 An advocate could not withdraw from a case, once he had begun it, unless he had good reason; otherwise he might be punished for deserting his client.88 It did no good for him to excuse himself because of overwork; a papal constitution forbade advocates to take more cases than they could handle properly and prescribed punishment for those who failed to show good judgment in regulating their case load.

Hmmmm... is this what reactionary sympathy feels like? :evil: :whip:

So wry I assumed the author of this paper was British:


One thread that seems to run through these isolated episodes of disciplinary enforcement is that in every case the initiative for disciplinary action apparently came from a dissatisfied client, not from judges or fellow-lawyers.90 Two alternative explanations for the rarity of disciplinary proceedings seem plausible. One is that medieval canonical advocates were a law abiding group who observed the standards of professional conduct scrupulously, and that practitioners who deviated from the ethical code were really quite rare. The other is that deviations from the established standards of behavior were probably not uncommon, but that canonical disciplinary mechanisms were so inefficient that most delinquents escaped detection and punishment.
It is striking that so much of the earliest evidence about the existence of professional lawyers in medieval Europe occurs in the works of authors who were not trained in the law and who were critical of the newfangled legal specialists: as soon as the lawyer appeared on the scene, he was resented and criticized.96 This seems to be the invariable fate of legal professionals throughout the ages: they have been targets of abuse and criticism in every society that has had an identifiable body of legal specialists. Critics of the legal profession in medieval Europe, as in other societies, took aim at the gap between the ethical ideals held up for the lawyers and their performance in actual practice. These criticisms seem to have had a paradoxical result, for they apparently reinforced the professional solidarity of the lawyers at the expense of the enforcement of ethical standards.98 Thus the profession's critics may actually have induced advocates to organize professional associations for self-defense. The critics' attacks may also have persuaded lawyers to assign a higher priority to defending themselves against attacks by nonprofessionals than to disciplining wayward members within their own ranks.
[...]
The same priorities have often been noted in recent times. In 1970, for example, the American Bar Association's Special Committee on Evaluation of Disciplinary Enforcement reported that, "With few exceptions, the prevailing attitude of lawyers toward disciplinary enforcement ranges from apathy to outright hostility. Disciplinary action is practically nonexistent in many jurisdictions; practices and procedures are antiquated; many disciplinary agencies have little power to take effective steps against malefactors."

Without reading through to the sections on the early American legal profession, I wonder if it shows that the associations followed and oriented around state regulation as a driver, as in medieval times, or if the American state(s) deferred to the emerging bars. Certainly any degree of other reading of life and lives of the early Republic make out the legal profession of the time as reflective of marked frontier conditions.

(I don't make any comments on the medical profession because I can't be bothered to study on it.)

[Hooahguy]

Second opinion, please, but is this article (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58270098) suggesting that deliberate exposure to unmodified coronavirus may be a better long-term mitigation strategy than booster shots?


Sounds like the herd immunity argument, which IIRC Sweden tried at the start of this thing and then abandoned because it wasnt working. The biggest problem with this is that it would open people up to a host of unintended side effects as Covid can wreak havoc in the body in a multitude of ways. One of my friends caught it in December 2020 and still doesn't have his full sense of smell back yet. Another friend caught it in November 2020 and had her voice box ravaged by it of all things. She has been in speech therapy for six months now trying to get her voice beyond a raspy whisper. Perhaps the vaccine can just be used to take the edge off, but this just seems like a huge gamble with peoples lives.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Sounds like the herd immunity argument, which IIRC Sweden tried at the start of this thing and then abandoned because it wasnt working. The biggest problem with this is that it would open people up to a host of unintended side effects as Covid can wreak havoc in the body in a multitude of ways. One of my friends caught it in December 2020 and still doesn't have his full sense of smell back yet. Another friend caught it in November 2020 and had her voice box ravaged by it of all things. She has been in speech therapy for six months now trying to get her voice beyond a raspy whisper. Perhaps the vaccine can just be used to take the edge off, but this just seems like a huge gamble with peoples lives.

I have always thought those lauding "herd immunity" as an answer to be a bit silly. Herd immunity is a natural condition. Once a sufficient portion of the population has antibodies to counteract most variants of a virus, that virus ceases to be a threat in all but a limited number of instances. The percentage of the population with antibodies that is required for this 'herd immunity' varies with the communicability of the virus in question. Herd immunity is an inevitability, not an 'answer.'

The question is, do you want to vaccinate to achieve the antibody percentage needed to functionally forestall the virus or do you want to let nature cull the population until you reach the threshold needed? I, myself, think vaccination makes just a tad bit more sense,

[rory_20_uk]

The rich in general have both had vaccines and will also have access to the expensive treatments that are coming out.

The poor are increasingly being viewed as "economically unproductive" and so if a few percentage of them die well... no biggie; if they also were sitting on large piles of money then so much the better.

Sweden might not have undertaken it for these reasons (and with a very diffuse population might have had a chance several iterations of virus ago) but those now pushing the idea seem to view this as a convenient excuse alongside as getting all the plebs back to their jobs.

~:smoking:

[ReluctantSamurai]

A bridge too far?

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/pandemic-australia-still-liberal-democracy/619940/


Intrastate travel within Australia is also severely restricted (https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions/coronavirus-covid-19-domestic-travel-restrictions-and-remote-area-access). And the government of South Australia, one of the country’s six states, developed and is now testing an app as Orwellian as any in the free world to enforce its quarantine rules. People in South Australia will be forced to download an app that combines facial recognition and geolocation. The state will text them at random times, and thereafter they will have 15 minutes to take a picture of their face in the location where they are supposed to be. Should they fail, the local police department will be sent to follow up in person. “We don’t tell them how often or when, on a random basis they have to reply within 15 minutes,” Premier Steven Marshall explained (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-23/how-will-south-australias-home-quarantine-trial-work/100398878). “I think every South Australian should feel pretty proud that we are the national pilot for the home-based quarantine app.”


Australia is undoubtedly a democracy, with multiple political parties, regular elections, and the peaceful transfer of power. But if a country indefinitely forbids its own citizens from leaving its borders, strands (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-30/stranded-australians-covid19-flights-international-repatriation/100337702) tens of thousands of its citizens abroad, puts strict rules on intrastate travel, prohibits citizens from leaving home without an excuse (https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/public-health-orders.aspx) from an official government list, mandates masks even when people are outdoors and socially distanced, deploys the military to enforce those rules, bans protest, and arrests and fines dissenters, is that country still a liberal democracy?


Enduring rules of that sort would certainly render a country a police state. In year two of the pandemic, with COVID-19 now thought to be endemic, rather than a temporary emergency the nation could avoid, how much time must pass before we must regard Australia as illiberal and unfree?


In return for trading away their liberty, Australians gained a huge safety dividend. COVID-19 has killed (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality) 194 of every 100,000 Americans, 77 of every 100,000 Israelis, and only four of every 100,000 Australians. That low death toll is a tremendous upside. What remains to be seen is whether Australia can maintain that performance without permanently ending core attributes of life in a liberal democracy, including freedom of movement, peaceable assembly, and basic privacy.

Thoughts?

[spmetla]

The trade-off for security versus liberty is always difficult. The problem with giving up liberties is the tendencies for them to not be temporary. WW2 would not have been won without the UK and US curtailing liberties, the triumph of their systems though was the resumption of those liberties after the war.
In the current hyper-partisan political climate in all liberal democracies there's just an extreme distrust of government. When I see the liberal/anarchist types here band together with the libertarians/anti-government right wingers here to protest against COVID-19 restrictions it just blows the mind. Even with hurricanes and lava flows I've seen no shortage of people angry that they aren't free to just travel anywhere despite our efforts to curtail looting or in the case of lava keep people safe from SO2 gas clouds and so on.
Part of the problem with COVID-19 is that there's no clear end-date which is what people are worried about. If it becomes an endemic virus that will occasionally have waves spread around the globe the emergency measures will seem way too permanent. Part of the problem was also that the lockdowns have the effect that people see the opposite of what they should see. Low infections due to lockdown makes people think the risk is low so they violate the measures or the measures are lifted too soon and then end up spreading it anyhow meaning that just when the virus could be eliminated in the community it relapses making the curtailment of freedoms just look ineffective and a power grab.

Having to download an app and be tracked by the government is effective. In the US at least I think it is a bridge too far short of international travelers in quarantine (depends on each state though). So long as the 'app' goes away in Australia once COVID goes down to a manageable level then the loss of liberties temporarily was worth it, clearly they aren't there to judge yet though.

[Montmorency]

Too often Friedersdorf indulges in this kind of overheated, undercooked, rhetoric.

The app is voluntary. The more salient concern is practicality. I'm assuming the app is not intended to keep people glued to their charged phones 24 hours a day, since that's an impossible demand and would necessitate constant police intervention if treated legalistically (whereas the app is touted as reducing the need for police checkups). Or maybe the followup call preceding the dispatch of compliance officers would accommodate that, but if you miss the text for a valid reason you might easily miss the call. Also, I don't understand why Australia is still mandating 2 week self-isolation; 24-hour (or less) PCR testing should be ubiquitous by now, stop wasting people's time.

The priority for Australia is to secure more vaccine and mandate it quickly. Not even a third of Australians are fully vaccinated - meanwhile, millions of doses are expiring here in the US. New Zealand too. Maybe they thought their elimination policies enabled them to slow-walk vaccination, but Delta has changed the rules. The Australian government seems to agree on the urgency of the matter now, having purchased or swapped millions more doses in the very recent past.

[Montmorency]

Puerile mentality (https://twitter.com/steinkobbe/status/1434282337521524741).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-eXZV8XsAUzrLX?format=jpg&name=medium

[ReluctantSamurai]

I'm so fed up with this horse-shit that I don't even care anymore...:shame: Go ahead and play Russian-roulette with COVID. If you lose, then more oxygen for the rest of us.....:shrug:

[ReluctantSamurai]

And the man who aided and abetted this will never be brought to account:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/15-school-death-miami-dade-ron-desantis-covid_n_61340e51e4b0eab0ad99a1ca


"15 Miami-Dade public school staff members die of COVID in just 10 days."


Florida is in the grip of its deadliest wave of COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic. As of mid-August, the state was averaging 244 deaths a day, eclipsing the previous peak of 227 (https://apnews.com/article/business-health-florida-coronavirus-pandemic-7ed6d05626848aca4e2827681b315770) a year ago. The state reported 2,345 deaths and over 129,000 cases (https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-print-florida-coronavirus-friday-sept-3-20210903-e4lh4wogbfenlfau7koeqluvuq-story.html) this week. Hospitals have had to rent refrigerated units to store bodies.


Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis (https://www.huffpost.com/topic/ron-desantis), who has dismissed the importance of COVID-19 vaccinations and signed an executive order banning mask mandates at schools, issued no comment on the astounding death rate in the county schools system.

So besides cooking the books to make Florida's situation seem less worse than it is, DeSantis has "no comment" on the carnage happening in his state...:furious3:

[Hooahguy]

I'm so fed up with this horse-shit that I don't even care anymore...:shame: Go ahead and play Russian-roulette with COVID. If you lose, then more oxygen for the rest of us.....:shrug:
Every day I read posts from friends and other people in healthcare who are at their wits end, and every day my patience continues to erode for the anti-vaxxers. I know I'm supposed to be kind, generous, and forgiving, but these past few months my heart has hardened. I read articles like this (https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-latest-covid-surge-is-just-the-start-of-a-new-nightmare?via=ios&fbclid=IwAR0Cy8P7cy_KQyctvpvKUYs3lKpJ2HzDvSi-T1YAjclDaiXraCbfKnTjpxs) and my mind snaps to the opinion that hospitals should just start rejecting care for the willingly unvaccinated, to save the healthcare workers who are exhausted and breaking down. If there is an unvaxxed Covid patient and a vaxxed patient who is having a heart attack, give the bed to the vaxxed person, the unvaxxed can try to find another bed somewhere else if they want to start listening to doctors all of a sudden.

Then I remind myself how that's a horribly cruel thing to think and I snap out of it. And then I read another story the next day and the cycle continues. I just dont know how people can remain even the slightest bit optimistic about the future.

[spmetla]

It's a crazy world and these people are living in alternate reality it seems. One of my coffee milling clients recently got COVID (he's unvaccinated), despite being told he had COVID, being hospitalized and put on a ventilator, and still having no sense of smell or taste after recovery he insists he just had some bad pneumonia!

As my mom and sister believe this nonsense too I can only hope that they don't get it too and won't start ill-wishing. I can't talk to them about COVID anymore though as it's always just an argument, they're convinced that I'm brainwashed by the government so matter what evidence I produce they don't budge in their opinion. Some people only learn when it happens to them unfortunately and some like my milling client won't even believe then. Hawaii is safer than most places but that Delta variant has gotten quite a few people I know that were vaccinated too, though they were thankfully not hospitalized which only proves the case for the vaccine.

[rory_20_uk]

Every day I read posts from friends and other people in healthcare who are at their wits end, and every day my patience continues to erode for the anti-vaxxers. I know I'm supposed to be kind, generous, and forgiving, but these past few months my heart has hardened. I read articles like this (https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-latest-covid-surge-is-just-the-start-of-a-new-nightmare?via=ios&fbclid=IwAR0Cy8P7cy_KQyctvpvKUYs3lKpJ2HzDvSi-T1YAjclDaiXraCbfKnTjpxs) and my mind snaps to the opinion that hospitals should just start rejecting care for the willingly unvaccinated, to save the healthcare workers who are exhausted and breaking down. If there is an unvaxxed Covid patient and a vaxxed patient who is having a heart attack, give the bed to the vaxxed person, the unvaxxed can try to find another bed somewhere else if they want to start listening to doctors all of a sudden.

Then I remind myself how that's a horribly cruel thing to think and I snap out of it. And then I read another story the next day and the cycle continues. I just dont know how people can remain even the slightest bit optimistic about the future.

Take solace that humanity has taken this approach each time there is a disaster and humanity continues. Those at the front line are inevitably the ones that suffer for very little reward.

As I'm sure you're aware, hostility only entrenches positions and conspiracy theories really tend to be good at "self healing" where evidence is more proof of the dark manipulations.

~:smoking:

[Hooahguy]

Take solace that humanity has taken this approach each time there is a disaster and humanity continues. Those at the front line are inevitably the ones that suffer for very little reward.

As I'm sure you're aware, hostility only entrenches positions and conspiracy theories really tend to be good at "self healing" where evidence is more proof of the dark manipulations.

~:smoking:
I understand, though I disagree about the bit about conspiracy theories being self healing, at least not anymore with Facebook and the internet. People who buy into them aren't exposing themselves to counter points of view, they only entrench themselves into their bubble. I remember reading interviews with nurses who talk about patients who refuse to believe Covid is a thing even as they draw their last breaths. So I am skeptical we will naturally find our way out of this.

Meanwhile-
(https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/09/politics/joe-biden-covid-speech/index.html)

President Joe Biden on Thursday imposed stringent new vaccine rules on federal workers, large employers and health care staff in a sweeping attempt to contain the latest surge of Covid-19.

The new requirements could apply to as many as 100 million Americans, according to the White House, and amount to Biden's strongest push yet to require vaccines for much of the country.
"We've been patient, but our patience is wearing thin," Biden said of Americans who still refuse vaccinations, casting his new measures as necessary to push the minority of the nation that still hasn't been inoculated into getting shots.

He said Americans who have received vaccinations were growing "frustrated" with the 80 million people who have not. And he acknowledged the new steps would not provide a quick fix.

...

In his speech, the President directed the Labor Department to require all businesses with 100 or more employees ensure their workers are either vaccinated or tested once a week. Companies could face thousands of dollars in fines per employee if they don't comply.

Biden has signed an executive order requiring all government employees be vaccinated against Covid-19, with no option of being regularly tested to opt out. The President also signed an order directing the same standard be applied to employees of contractors who do business with the federal government.

So this will either make great strides in getting people vaccinated, or set off a powder keg of resentment. Hard to say which way it will go.

[Montmorency]

Yes, finally (https://twitter.com/weijia/status/1436049278020067328).


NEW: The President will announce that all employers with 100 or more employees will be required to mandate COVID-19 vaccines or require testing at least once a week, and they’ll have to provide paid time off.

The new rule will impact over 80 million workers in private sector.

COVID-19 vaccinations will also be required for more than 17 million health care workers at hospitals and other facilities that receive Medicare or Medicaid reimbursement—roughly 50K providers. (This covers a majority of health care workers nationwide.)



I'm so fed up with this horse-shit that I don't even care anymore...:shame: Go ahead and play Russian-roulette with COVID. If you lose, then more oxygen for the rest of us.....:shrug:

There's all sorts of stories.

Such as


Students at a school in Manchester, MI, instigated by parents, refuse to comply with the mask mandate and enter school. This is the next phase - school boards can enact policies, but someone also has to enforce them.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1435638694933942277 [VIDEO]


More video of crazy #karen following my daughter and her mom coughing at them. Lancaster county has a mask mandate right now.
https://twitter.com/RoBeastRo/status/1434656014368919552 [VIDEO - Content warning]



One of the (https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2021/09/covid-craziness-september-8-2021-edition) Drs. my wife works with was telling her about a recent Covid patient of his.

1. The guy was unvaccinated
2. The guy had self-medicated with Ivermectin
3. Even though lung-transplants units are backlogged, they miraculously found a match available for him.
4. Lung transplant facility requires a Covid vaccination within a reasonable timeframe after the transplant to be eligible for the transplant.
5. Guy’s wife refuses to sign the vaccination commitment form.
6. Guy dies.

We love to see a principled conservative. :applause:

There's a whole subreddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward) devoted to similar stories.

Unfortunately (https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward/comments/phykgs/heartbreaking_plea_from_awardee_marks_sister_mark/), one conservative principle du jour is "kamikaze."


Heartbreaking plea from awardee Mark’s sister. Mark also infected their elderly vaccinated father Walter. Walter died yesterday.

https://i.redd.it/jihwmpdsljl71.jpg



Every day I read posts from friends and other people in healthcare who are at their wits end, and every day my patience continues to erode for the anti-vaxxers. I know I'm supposed to be kind, generous, and forgiving, but these past few months my heart has hardened. I read articles like this (https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-latest-covid-surge-is-just-the-start-of-a-new-nightmare?via=ios&fbclid=IwAR0Cy8P7cy_KQyctvpvKUYs3lKpJ2HzDvSi-T1YAjclDaiXraCbfKnTjpxs) and my mind snaps to the opinion that hospitals should just start rejecting care for the willingly unvaccinated, to save the healthcare workers who are exhausted and breaking down. If there is an unvaxxed Covid patient and a vaxxed patient who is having a heart attack, give the bed to the vaxxed person, the unvaxxed can try to find another bed somewhere else if they want to start listening to doctors all of a sudden.

Then I remind myself how that's a horribly cruel thing to think and I snap out of it. And then I read another story the next day and the cycle continues. I just dont know how people can remain even the slightest bit optimistic about the future.

On trying to convince a family member to take the Covid vaccine and being told that all vaccines are a fraud perpetrated on the gullible: Ah :daisy: it, I don't care.


As I'm sure you're aware, hostility only entrenches positions and conspiracy theories really tend to be good at "self healing" where evidence is more proof of the dark manipulations.

It is said that conspiracism is both hard and brittle, hard in that it resists penetration of information unfit to the model, brittle in that unraveling a single "loose thread" in the worldview can shatter the whole edifice (to mix metaphors), especially if the individual finds it for themselves. What constitutes the fatal weakness for any given conspiracist is unpredictable, and can include the most innocuous factual happenings upon or logical symmetries.

[Hooahguy]

My only comforting thought is that perhaps this will make 2022 and 2024 easier.

[rory_20_uk]

I understand, though I disagree about the bit about conspiracy theories being self healing, at least not anymore with Facebook and the internet. People who buy into them aren't exposing themselves to counter points of view, they only entrench themselves into their bubble. I remember reading interviews with nurses who talk about patients who refuse to believe Covid is a thing even as they draw their last breaths. So I am skeptical we will naturally find our way out of this.

Apologies if I was not clear - it is the conspiracy that tends to self heal - any evidence you provide is just proof that Big Pharma / the Deep State / whoever has the power to suppress the truth and concoct propaganda.

What evidence can one truly find oneself when the root cause is a virus? The tests we all do mainly are made in China...

~:smoking:

[Montmorency]

Friedersdorf (https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1436113547700887553) doing his thing again.

https://i.imgur.com/COWbZke.jpg


Samurai and spmetla, on penny-wisdom/pound-foolishness (https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/09/how-covid-won-the-summer-covax-antivaxxers.html).


In the pandemic’s early days, there was much high-minded talk about vaccine equity. “No one is safe until everyone is safe,” the international bodies and philanthropic organizations correctly observed. Covax, a multibillion-dollar program bankrolled by nonprofits and global health bodies, aimed to leverage massive buying power to ensure poor nations’ timely access to vaccine doses. Rich countries proceeded to slow-walk delivery of their financial pledges to Covax, limiting its ability to ink timely deals. At the same time, wealthy nations engaged in a bidding war for first dibs on doses, pushing up the price pharmaceutical companies felt comfortable charging the philanthropic endeavor.
[...]
In July, the International Monetary Fund estimated vaccinating “at least 40 percent of the population in all countries by the end of 2021 and at least 60 percent by the first half of 2022” would cost roughly $50 billion. That price has proven too steep for the wealthy world. Even the United States — whose humanitarian impulses ostensibly led it to invest $2 trillion into “democracy promotion” in Afghanistan — has declined to cough up a significant fraction of that sum. Today, vaccinating 40 percent of every country by year’s end looks utopian. According to the World Health Organization, only nine African countries have vaccinated 10 percent of their people.
[...]
The United States has contributed more to the global vaccination drive than any other country, but our contributions have nevertheless been paltry, especially when viewed in light of our resources. America did donate 500 million Pfizer doses to low-income countries. Yet the Biden administration financed that donation by diverting hundreds of millions of dollars that it had previously pledged for vaccination drives in those countries, according to the New York Times.
[...]
America’s efforts to expand global vaccine production have also been lackluster. A group of 116 congressional Democrats has called for adding to the party’s $3.5 trillion spending bill a $34 billion investment in global COVID vaccine manufacturing. The White House has yet to approve. Meanwhile, despite America’s official support for waiving patents on COVID vaccines, it has done little to pressure Pfizer and Moderna into transferring their technology to other countries with spare vaccine production capacity, such as South Korea.

But it is also a betrayal of the rich world’s own enlightened self-interest. The same IMF report that put the price of a comprehensive global vaccination drive at $50 billion also estimated that such a drive would yield $9 trillion worth of benefits by 2025, with “over 40 percent of this gain going to advanced economies as stronger recoveries in the rest of the world raises demand for their goods, and through stronger confidence effects at home as the pandemic ends durably.” The report goes on to note that this gain would translate into an extra $1 trillion in tax revenue for advanced economies, “which means that funding this proposal may possibly be the highest-return public investment ever.” The G20 didn’t take the IMF up on that offer. Now we’re living in the counterfactual.
[...]
As Bloomberg reported this week, Delta’s resurgence is depressing global growth, while pandemic-induced factory closures in Southeast Asia are further disrupting global supply chains. Together, these developments could revive “stagflation”: the simultaneous occurrence of weak demand (as public health problems limit hiring and investment) and high prices (as production delays yield a scarcity of critical inputs for popular goods).

If the COVID pandemic is the defining crisis of our moment, climate change is the primary one of our century. And the dynamics that facilitated COVID’s resurgence this summer also threaten to preempt an expeditious green transition. Any program of rapid decarbonization in the U.S. would require increasing the relative cost of carbon-intensive activities and modes of living. Which is to say: It would require some Americans to accept a permanent change in their lifestyles, for the sake of making ecological decline less severe in the future, and thus hypothetically saving the lives of people they care about (assuming that foreign nations emulate our example). Yet a sizable portion of U.S. citizens just proved unwilling to accept a modest and temporary imposition on their personal liberty (wearing a mask, getting a shot), for the sake of immediately enhancing their own personal safety, while accelerating the end of a pandemic that’s already killed hundreds of thousands of their compatriots. A just transition will also require rich nations to transfer green technology and financing to rising powers like China and India, so as to aid their sustainable development, at some geopolitical risk. Yet the wealthy world is right now proving itself unwilling to transfer mRNA technology or adequate vaccine-drive financing to low-income countries — actions that carry no geopolitical risk, and massive economic and public health benefits for the donor countries themselves.

All of which is to say: Humanity can’t meet the challenges of the Anthropocene without recognizing our collective interdependence.

[ReluctantSamurai]

It would require some Americans to accept a permanent change in their lifestyles, for the sake of making ecological decline less severe in the future, and thus hypothetically saving the lives of people they care about (assuming that foreign nations emulate our example). Yet a sizable portion of U.S. citizens just proved unwilling to accept a modest and temporary imposition on their personal liberty (wearing a mask, getting a shot), for the sake of immediately enhancing their own personal safety, while accelerating the end of a pandemic that’s already killed hundreds of thousands of their compatriots.

I've stated this months ago (my post concerning a neighbor who'd rather spend $80,000 on a new Cadillac than upgrade ancient windows and insulate his home). I don't see it happening (wide-spread life-style changes) and unfortunately, there is noone around to issue this command: "Klaatu barada nikto".


Meanwhile, despite America’s official support for waiving patents on COVID vaccines, it has done little to pressure Pfizer and Moderna into transferring their technology to other countries with spare vaccine production capacity

Check the connection between Biden and his long-time Congressional buddy Sen Chris Coons. Then look into the Coons' family ties with Big Pharma....:thinking2:

[ReluctantSamurai]

Not that anyone gives a shit anymore, but the US just passed this grim milestone, making it the worst disaster in terms of human life, in US history:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/20/covid-19-death-toll-1918-flu-pandemic


Covid-19 has now killed as many Americans as the 1918-19 flu pandemic – more than 675,000. While the Delta variant-fueled surge in infections may have peaked, US deaths are more than 1,900 a day on average – the highest level since early March – and the country’s overall toll topped 675,000 Monday, according to the count kept by Johns Hopkins University, though the real number is believed to be higher.

Before Covid-19, the 1918-19 flu was universally considered the worst pandemic disease in human history. Whether the current scourge ultimately proves deadlier is unclear. The 1918-19 influenza pandemic killed 50 million victims globally at a time when the world had one-quarter the population it does now. Global deaths from Covid-19 now stand at more than 4.6 million. [The 4.6 million figure is almost certainly a gross undercount]

[ReluctantSamurai]

Here in the US, we are cutting our own throats (almost literally):

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/23/us-public-health-workers-pandemic-burnout


Beginning last March, Alexandra estimates that she and her colleagues worked the equivalent of three full-time years in 12 months. “There was no overtime, there was no hazard pay,” Alexandra recalls. Throughout the public health department where she worked, symptoms of anxiety, depression and stress-related physical maladies were commonplace among staff.


The results of a nationwide CDC survey (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7026e1.htm) of public health workers, released this July, were revealing. Of the more than 26,000 surveyed individuals working in public health departments across the United States, more than half reported recent symptoms of at least one major mental health condition. Their reported prevalence of PTSD (https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2021/08/05/the-pandemic-has-devastated-the-mental-health-of-public-health-workers) was 10 to 20% higher than in frontline medical workers and the general public.

Some public health workers, including Alexandra, cite a lack of cooperation from elected officials as a driving source of widespread overwork and discontent. Others even say they have faced pressure from elected officials to alter their findings to fit a political agenda. “When they didn’t like how our [data on] vaccination coverage by race/ethnicity was looking, they actually asked me – the least senior member of the health department – to edit the data to artificially inflate BIPOC categories,” alleges Kristine, an epidemiologist at a Connecticut health department. (Her name has been changed out of fear for her job.)


Meanwhile, public health workers are at the receiving end of mounting resentment. Since last March, threats against public health officials have increased (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-04-26/for-public-health-officials-a-year-of-threats-and-menace). In a high-profile incident this past July, an angry crowd targeted (https://twitter.com/kodacohen/status/1420556870775885826) Dr Faisal Khan – the acting director of the St Louis department of health – at a meeting on mask mandates. The disgruntled attendees lobbed racial epithets and surrounded Khan after the meeting like a mob.

The public health workforce (https://www.governing.com/work/what-will-it-take-to-recruit-and-retain-public-health-workers) had been shrinking (https://astho.org/Press-Room/New-Data-on-State-Health-Agencies-Shows-Shrinking-Workforce-and-Decreased-Funding-Leading-up-to-the-COVID-19-Pandemic/09-24-20/) before the pandemic, but Covid-19 is accelerating the downward trend. Across the US, as of late last year, more than 180 public health officials had been fired or resigned (https://khn.org/news/article/pandemic-backlash-jeopardizes-public-health-powers-leaders/) from their posts in 38 states. Current public health resignation numbers are probably much higher, especially once staff-level positions are taken into account. All the while, public health departments have faced budget cuts (https://khn.org/news/us-public-health-system-underfunded-under-threat-faces-more-cuts-amid-covid-pandemic/) and challenges to their power (https://khn.org/news/article/pandemic-backlash-jeopardizes-public-health-powers-leaders/).


“I worry that the field is going to [keep losing] a lot of people – people who are nearing retirement age, but also the people around my age,” says Rey, the public health data analyst in New York City. Though relatively new to the job, she has seen many of her contemporaries opt to throw in the towel. “They are already burned out and are leaving the workforce in droves,” she says.

God help us when the next pandemic happens (and there will be another one) if something isn't done about about addressing this problem.

Then there's this nut-job appointed by Trump wannabee Gov. DeSantis:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/22/ron-desantis-names-anti-vax-doctor-florida-surgeon-general


A medical professor who is opposed to mask and vaccine mandates, attacked concern over the pandemic as “Covid mania” and likened the eating of fruit and vegetables to the benefits of vaccination has been named as Florida’s new surgeon general.

At a press conference on Tuesday to mark his appointment, Lapado said he would “reject fear” in his dealing with the pandemic. “Florida will completely reject fear,” he said. “Fear is done.”

Like DeSantis, Ladapo is opposed to mask mandates and has said that getting vaccinated is a personal choice that individuals have to make. “There is nothing special about them compared to any other preventive measure,” he said about vaccines, despite widespread evidence that unvaccinated people are overwhelmingly more likely to become seriously ill or die from Covid (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/why-measure-effectiveness/breakthrough-cases.html).

How about this for fear, "Scott Atlas Jr.":

https://apnews.com/article/health-florida-pandemics-coronavirus-pandemic-centers-for-disease-control-and-prevention-e614f50ef331b2bb0990c3a0f0369bb3


Florida surpassed 50,000 coronavirus deaths since the pandemic began, health officials reported Thursday, with more than one fourth of those succumbing this summer as the state battled a fierce surge in infections fueled by the delta variant.

Florida has the 11th worst per-capita death rate among the 50 states, the CDC says. New Jersey, Mississippi and New York have had the worst, but Florida has risen from the 17th spot in the past two weeks.

Overall, about one in every 400 Florida residents who were alive in March 2020 has since died of COVID-19. Only cancer and heart disease have killed more Floridians during that period, according to state health department statistics. Those have each killed about 70,000 Floridians.

The only thing that's going to save Floridians, is rising sea levels that will force residents to move elsewhere...:quiet:

[Montmorency]

On how Australians feel (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/23/world/australia/covid-lockdowns-freedom.html) about the freedom to have a Covid death rate an order of magnitude lower than the US or Europe.

Looking at the advanced economies of the Pacific and the Antipode, over the summer - or even over the past month - they've been vaccinating at a propitious rate. I'm speaking of 20% a month of the population fully and partially vaccinated each. Where the US will be fortunate to have 66% of the population fully vaccinated by the end of the year, Australia and the rest will likely reach 70% easily, pushing 80% perhaps, despite the later start. And of course China already claims to have fully inoculated 75% of its population - over a billion people - but that's a simple proposition in their case.

[Montmorency]

In April I was not predicting it would get this bad (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/briefing/covid-red-states-vaccinations.html). I expected our vaccination rate would be 10 points higher than it currently is.

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/09/27/multimedia/27-MORNING-sub4-COUNTIES-VOTING-DEATH-CHART/27-MORNING-sub4-COUNTIES-VOTING-DEATH-CHART-jumbo.png?quality=90&auto=webp

Excluding the months of April and May 2020, New York's Covid death rate is maybe 5% of Florida's. Florida in Summer 2021 had higher Covid death rates than New York City ever saw! And many red areas in various states have experienced even worse. For example, Idaho patients have been overwhelming Washington hospitals for a while now (even as Washington's own rural hospitals have been under local pressure for conceivable reasons).

Now I'm only sad that the effect won't rise to demographic electoral significance, and would find it appropriate for Washington's Gov. Inslee to wear one of these:

https://i.imgur.com/FdZyIsS.jpg

[ReluctantSamurai]

Two things:


In an article this month for Breitbart (https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2021/09/10/nolte-howard-stern-proves-democrats-want-unvaccinated-trump-voters-dead/), the right-wing website formerly run by Steve Bannon, John Nolte argued that the partisan gap in vaccination rates was part of a liberal plot. Liberals like Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Anthony Fauci and Howard Stern have tried so hard to persuade people to get vaccinated, because they know that Republican voters will do the opposite of whatever they say, Nolte wrote.

When all else fails, claim conspiracy...:laugh4: And something I said earlier...send ALL of our excess vaccine doses overseas, keeping only enough for those who can prove they voted Democrat in the last election. The ensuing shit-storm from Republicans claiming their rights are being violated would be hilarious...~D


“Right now, a countless number of Trump supporters believe they are owning the left by refusing to take a lifesaving vaccine,” Nolte wrote. “In a country where elections are decided on razor-thin margins, does it not benefit one side if their opponents simply drop dead?”

Republicans are just "Dying to Own the Libs"...sounds like a tee-shirt to me...:yes:

[Montmorency]

Yes, it was an incredible perspective to publish. Essentially: Vaccines and other public health measures are good and effective, but actually bad and nefarious, because liberals are trying to kill conservatives by promoting them, whereas it is well known that if a liberal nagging nanny tells a red-blooded patriot not to jump off a bridge, the cause of freedom demands self-defenestration. How could vaccines and public health measures be tolerable when godless communists are wielding them as an assassin's blade of reverse psychology?

...

How to treat someone as your fellow man who has absorbed to effect such an infantile mentality of oppositional defiance? Much worse than an infant, for the level of violence, destruction, and malaise they perpetrate against us, yet without the moral status or future potential.


Meanwhile, vaccine mandates need to be extended as widely as feasible. E.g. dozens of state troopers in Massachusetts (and many police more generally around the country) threatened to resign over vaccine mandates. Ultimately only one has. In practice, 99% of people comply when faced by mandates.

The surprisingly-widespread (https://twitter.com/summerbrennan/status/1442806675325476867) costs of Covid even amidst widespread vaccination.


hen I got Covid in 2020 and spent weeks in the hospital, it was harrowing. But it was nothing compared to what my family is dealing with now—also as a result of Covid.

This is a Covid horror story in which no one actually gets Covid, and it could still happen to anyone �� In August my dad was living independently in rural New Mexico, as he has for years, in a beautiful place with a view of the mountains. He got vaxxed against Covid as soon as it was available, wore masks, and was waiting out the pandemic like the rest of us.

Then, he had a fall. When I called and he admitted that he was in the hospital, he was more annoyed than anything else. He tripped, he hurt his leg, couldn’t go home for a week or so. How irritating. How dumb. He blamed himself. He loved me, hoped I was well, he was fine, etc. That was the last call.

What happened was that while in the hospital, my dad caught viral pneumonia that went unnoticed. The whole state was in lockdown, and every hospital ICU was filling up with unvaccinated Covid patients. There weren’t enough resources. The governor begged people to get vaxxed. My dad was not in the ICU, but in a physical rehab unit of the hospital to help him with his leg. They now say they did not know he had pneumonia at that point.

He collapsed on the floor in his room and was left there, unnoticed, for six hours. When they found him he was blue and had an oxygen level of 50. He did not have Covid. He was taken to the ER and put on a ventilator, but they had to put him in *a storage room* because there physically not enough space due to all the unvaccinated Covid cases.

Twenty-four hours later, he was off the vent and his oxygen levels were restored. My siblings, who live closer, flew in. I spoke to him, and he was out of it but okay. Surely he would get treatment now. We thought that was the worst of it. It was not.

It was later explained to me that this hospital decided to *re-intubate my father* due to a lack of hospital resources. They couldn’t manage. He could not see a cardiologist or a pulmonologist, they were all busy. They could not run the needed tests. So they kept him on the vent.

In normal circumstances, they simply would have transferred my dad to a larger hospital. There were several close by. It would have been routine. But due to Covid, it was impossible—so impossible, they thought, that they didn’t even tell me he needed to be transferred.

A few days later, while I had thought my dad was improving—I kept being reassured by the nurses when I called—I finally called and got an exhausted, angry nurse who said bluntly: “we are tapped out and because of that your father is going to die. Maybe today. I’m sorry.”

I demanded to speak to the doctor and he said more or less the same thing. The state was maxed out. My dad needed a cardiac ICU bed, or at least a cardiologist, and there was nothing for him. There was no hope, and no point even trying. Everywhere was full of the unvaccinated.

Now, there have been other stories like ours in the news over the past month or so. There was the father who was turned away from 43 ICUs and sadly passed away. People were being flown across state lines to try to save them, their families in terror, the health systems in chaos. My dad’s doctor said that New Mexico’s ICU bed planning was centralized, so there was no point calling NM hospitals, but I could try ICUs in CO, AZ, TX, UT, CA—even though, he said, they had already tried all those. He would try again. I could call. I think he was humoring me.

The doctor said to “send him any leads” so when I called the hospitals, I said I was calling on his behalf. I never said I was his assistant or medical staff, but they talked to me. They were all maxed out. Nothing they could do. After about five panicked hours of contacting every hospital, every person I could think of, and screaming my helplessness into the maw of the internet to see if anyone, anyone at all could help us, we finally reached a doctor in an ABQ hospital ICU who agreed to admit my dad.

So that was two weeks ago. If he’d gotten to that ICU even hours later, we would have lost him. They had to perform heroic acts to stabilize him. In a week his pneumonia had been brought under control, and he was starting to heal. They talked about a full recovery.

However. By that point my dad had been on a vent for more than ten days, simply because of a lack of access to care. If you’re a med professional, you know why this matters. All signs looked good and so they decided to extubate him. At first he tolerated it, and then…he didn’t.

Three days later, they had to intubate my dad for the third time. They said that doing this could result in a permanent disability. He could fully recover, but he also might not ever be independent again. They gave me the option of “making him comfortable” instead, and you know what that means.

But I’m my dad’s PoA and he’d been clear that he wanted people to fight for him in a circumstance like this, so I said no. I told them to fight and do whatever they could to save him. To save my dad, they had to perform a tracheostomy for long-term weaning from the ventilator. That means making a hole in his windpipe. “Like Stephen Hawking,” someone said. It might be temporary, it might not. They didn’t know if it would save him, but so far at least, it has.

I think of my dad before all this happened, still working, living in his own (rented) home, looking out at the mountains, calling his children in California and in France.

The doctors and nurses say that a full recovery and getting off the trache is possible, but will be hard. They also say that none of this would have happened if it were not for the fact that so many people remain unvaccinated against Covid. Even in NM, with a decent vaccination rate, the system is overrun.

Please get vaccinated. Wear a mask. You never know how it will affect you.

Seriously, if we're going to have widespread ":daisy: you, we're full" triage, let the unvaccinated get the short straw. Let them be ready come winter.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I hate having the feds trump state government.
I hate having unfunded federal mandates pushed onto state government and/or private enterprises.
I hate paying my taxes to fund 'do-gooder' projects outside my country that wallow in graft (not that we are free of it domestically, it just isn't much in the way of 'wallowing' sve for the Congress) and then spew hatred back at my country after the handout.

But it is a malfing pandemic and we must needs do all of these things, even if only motivated by our own long term selfish greed as opposed to a decent sense of humanity.

[Xantan]

As an non-American, I always found it interesting how for many it's always "state first" rather than the country as a whole. When it comes to external affairs, America first and of course the flag, when it comes to domestic issues, states rights are always more important.

There was this unreal story recently from Alabama where COVID funds were directed to make a prison. Ignoring for a second the sheer absurdity and monstrosity, this would never fly in a centralised state.

[Montmorency]

There was this unreal story recently from Alabama where COVID funds were directed to make a prison. Ignoring for a second the sheer absurdity and monstrosity, this would never fly in a centralised state.

It would in North Korea, probably.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I hate having the feds trump state government.

This really belongs in another thread, but for sake of continuity, I put it here.

What do you suggest being done about this:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/10/how-south-dakota-became-haven-dirty-money/620298/

So...states rights to do whatever they please---in this case laundering billions worth of dirty money, or oversight by the feds to stop such practices (which likely will never happen because that's the proverbial fox managing the hen house)?

Go ahead and post a reply in the Shenanigan's thread, if you'd like (probably the most appropriate thread)...:shrug:

[ReluctantSamurai]

We've all seen our share of horrific stories involving Covidiot's. I thought I'd seen it all when that vid last fall depicted a middle-aged man claiming he must have lung cancer or pneumonia, instead of COVID-19, even as he was dying. But this...this one takes the cake, so far:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeffrey-burnham-killed-pharmacist-brother-covid-vaccine-shots-poisoning/


A Maryland man charged in the deaths of his brother, sister-in-law and another woman may have killed his brother, a pharmacist, because the brother was administering COVID-19 (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeffrey-burnham-killed-pharmacist-brother-covid-vaccine-shots-poisoning/wanted%20to%20confront%20Brian%20with%20the%20government%20poisoning%20people%20with%20COVID%20vacci nes,%E2%80%9D%20the%20document%20reads,%20%E2%80%9CHe%20repeatedly%20stated%20%E2%80%98Brian%20knows %20something!%E2%80%99%E2%80%9D) vaccines, charging documents show, according to CBS Washington, D.C. affiliate WUSA-TV (https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/crime/maryland-man-arrested-for-murder-covid-19-shot-coronavirus-vaccine/65-3326ca66-5995-4861-8340-361ba11cb6a7).

Jeffrey Burnham, 46, of Cumberland, "wanted to confront" his brother "with the government poisoning people with COVID vaccines," one document reads, adding, "He repeatedly stated, 'Brian knows something!'"

The documents say Burnham also killed Robinette's wife, 57-year-old Kelly Sue Robinette and another woman, identified as 83-year-old Rebecca Reynolds.

Absolute insanity...:shame:

[Montmorency]

The anti-Covid vaccinism of the Right follows its logical course (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/10/13/slippery-slope-gops-anti-vaccine-mandate-push/).

25138

Rep. Jim Jordan (https://twitter.com/Jim_Jordan/status/1447977557958266884) is one of the top Republicans in the House.



Rep. Jim Jordan
@Jim_Jordan
Ohio should ban all vaccine mandates.
1:28 PM · Oct 12, 2021·Twitter for iPhone

So it proceeds (https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/matt-gaetz-and-jim-jordan-beavis-and-butt-head-photo).

https://i.imgur.com/KA3yQiS.jpg

[ReluctantSamurai]

The Bevis & Butthead Syndrome may be the worst "disease" sweeping the US:

https://khn.org/news/article/over-half-of-states-have-rolled-back-public-health-powers-in-pandemic/


Republican legislators in more than half of U.S. states, spurred on by voters angry about lockdowns and mask mandates, are taking away the powers state and local officials use to protect the public against infectious diseases.

A KHN review of hundreds of pieces of legislation found that, in all 50 states, legislators have proposed bills to curb such public health powers since the covid-19 pandemic began. While some governors vetoed bills that passed, at least 26 states pushed through laws that permanently weaken government authority to protect public health. In three additional states, an executive order, ballot initiative or state Supreme Court ruling (https://www.wpr.org/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-statewide-mask-mandate) limited long-held public health powers. More bills are pending in a handful of states whose legislatures are still in session.

In my line of work, weekend warriors, otherwise known as do-it-yourself'ers, can only kill you with faulty wiring projects. These self-appointed DIY'ers are going to be the cause for thousands of deaths sometime in the future:


In at least 16 states, legislators have limited the power of public health officials to order mask mandates, or quarantines or isolation. In some cases, they gave themselves or local elected politicians the authority to prevent the spread of infectious disease.

This quote from Arkansas Sen. Trent Garner high-points the abysmal arrogance of lawmakers:


“What the people of Arkansas want is the decision to be left in their hands, to them and their family,” Garner said. “It’s time to take the power away from the so-called experts, whose ideas have been woefully inadequate.”

And where do such idiots like Sen. Garner go when they get seriously ill? Yep, the "so-called experts".

The biggest idiots of all, so far, are Montana state legislators:


Montana’s legislature passed some of the most restrictive laws of all, severely (https://legiscan.com/MT/text/HB702/2021) curbing public health’s quarantine and isolation (https://legiscan.com/MT/text/HB121/2021) powers, increasing local elected officials’ power (https://legiscan.com/MT/text/HB121/2021) over local health boards, preventing limits on religious gatherings (https://legiscan.com/MT/text/HB121/2021) and banning employers (https://legiscan.com/MT/text/HB702/2021) — including in health care settings (https://khn.org/news/article/us-hospital-workers-covid-vaccination-mandates-banned-in-montana-oregon/) — from requiring vaccinations for covid, the flu or anything else. Legislators there also passed limits on local officials (https://legiscan.com/MT/text/HB632/2021): If jurisdictions add public health rules stronger than state public health measures, they could lose 20% of some grants.

How about this one Montana?

https://www.wired.com/2014/09/peter-muller-ebola-photographs/

CFR for Ebola ranges from 25% in mild variants, to as high as 90% in the Ebola-Zaire variant.

These self-appointed "medical experts" had better get familiar with these "old friends":

https://hcavirginia.com/blog/entry/historys-nine-most-contagious-diseases-where-are-they-now

I wonder which so-called experts these Bevis & Butthead nut-jobs will turn to when Ebola or something similar turns up in America again...as it inevitably will...:oops:

[Montmorency]

Australia has overtaken the US in vaccination rates, most of its full-dose spread having been achieved over the past two months. Meanwhile, the US seems to be experiencing an unprecedented surge of STIs (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/24/us-sti-rates-covid-sexually-transmitted-infections-funding) due to a lack of education and medical infrastructure, as well as declining condom usage.

I just noticed that Romania basically halted vaccination during the summer, what's up with that? edyzmedieval

[edyzmedieval]

Unfortunately, the situation in Romania is catastrophic. There's no sugarcoating around it, it's catastrophical.

In the summer, the government announced the pandemic is over. It was incredibly short sighted so as a result, a already vaccine-skeptic population straight up ignored the pleas (pleas, public, on TV, on radio, YouTube, everywhere) of the doctors. Now, well... how do I put this kindly, we are doing worse than Italy is doing last year when the pandemic started. I cannot express my fury and straight up disappointment, we're close to 20.000 cases a day for the past 2 weeks or so. And our vaccination rate is 34% as of end of October 2021.

Why? Historical distrust of governments and a general lack of trust in everything around us. It's a catastrophe, there are literally no more beds available. For 2 weeks now.

[spmetla]

My heart goes out to you folks and I hope you stay safe.

[edyzmedieval]

Thank you spmetla. :bow:

The EU, of which I am a big fan of, has contributed significantly to the recent efforts. Thank you as well to the governments of the countries, particularly Italy and if I remember well, Denmark and France as well. We got sent monoclonal treatment vials (from Italy), ventilators & other supplies.

[Crandar]

Thank you spmetla. :bow:

The EU, of which I am a big fan of, has contributed significantly to the recent efforts. Thank you as well to the governments of the countries, particularly Italy and if I remember well, Denmark and France as well. We got sent monoclonal treatment vials (from Italy), ventilators & other supplies.
What's the position of the church? I have read that it is quite ambivalent, with some bishops supporting vaccination, others vehemently rejecting it and Daniel refusing to express his opinion. His silence is viewed as an implicit disapproval of vaccination.

[edyzmedieval]

They're currently trying to stay out of the spotlight because of a investigative journalism piece that was released about a week ago. That piece became #1 on Trending over here and it really had a crater effect on their public image.

This week they came out saying the population needs to respect the recommendations of doctors - quite ambivalent.

[Crandar]

They're currently trying to stay out of the spotlight because of a investigative journalism piece that was released about a week ago. That piece became #1 on Trending over here and it really had a crater effect on their public image.

This week they came out saying the population needs to respect the recommendations of doctors - quite ambivalent.
Interesting and maybe also useful, if it convinces more people to vaccinate. Could you share it or is it behind a paywall? I imagine it's written in Romanian, but Google is doing a decent job with Latin languages, so I could at least get the general gist of it.

[Montmorency]

Almost every advanced economy has long surpassed the US in vaccinations by now - hell, much of Latin America has - but moving the analysis up a level still gives this data (https://www.ft.com/content/35a3d40a-f71f-4fca-893d-884fec5633d8) from the beginning of the month a punch.

https://i.imgur.com/nVp5J4p.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/72A6fRV.jpg

It's interesting how since the summer, countries like Germany, France, and the UK have hit a ceiling for vaccination at about 2/3 of the population (already surpassed by ANZAC latecomers), whereas countries like Spain, Portugal, and China have vaccinated basically every eligible adult. For Israel, which plateaued in the spring, it's more obvious why...

[spmetla]

It's interesting how since the summer, countries like Germany, France, and the UK have hit a ceiling for vaccination at about 2/3 of the population (already surpassed by ANZAC latecomers), whereas countries like Spain, Portugal, and China have vaccinated basically every eligible adult. For Israel, which plateaued in the spring, it's more obvious why...

They've hit the vaccine 'wall' of people that are either anti-vac or just don't think them necessary; especially so if a government they're wary of is pushing it.

In my extended family it seems all my male relatives have the shot and all my female relatives don't 'trust' this vaccine and refuse to get it despite getting every other shot that're are normal in the US.

Half my extended family being originally from Austria it's crazy how they're calling the current measures there as quasi-nazi. There's a lockdown for the people that are clogging up the hospitals. Beats doing a 100% lockdown again and no better incentive to get the fence sitters to go and get a shot.

I'm thinking that only when the anti-viral COVID pills are readily available everywhere to treat people that got the virus but not the shot but are diagnosed early enough, then we may finally see this pandemic end as it just becomes another treatable disease.

[Montmorency]

Australia and New Zealand have vaccinated three-quarters of their populations in half a year. How did they succeed where others haven't?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Huge spike in cases, both in county and state. Link (https://www.google.com/search?q=florida+covid+cases+today&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS722US722&oq=florida+covid+&aqs=chrome.1.0i131i433i512j0i131i433i457i512j69i57j0i402j0i131i433i512l6.6616j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)
Positivity rate soaring, especially in county. Link (https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/map/florida)
Vaccination rate among college age below state and national averages. Link (https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker)

Answer? Open school as usual, normal class modes, on January 10th as scheduled.

:shame:


An administrator finally said we can use distance learning for the first few weeks...

[Montmorency]

The US and EU have done a better job facilitating vaccine transfers to lower-income countries than I expected they would pre-Delta. More than a billion doses* delivered so far including bilateral donations, donations to COVAX, monetary contributions bilaterally and to COVAX, and cost-sharing. A few billion more promised for this year, not implausibly. The majority of the human population had received a full course inoculation by the beginning of the winter (implying the majority of low-income countries' needs can easily be met through our 1st World efforts), so the only real obstacle we continue to face is advanced denialism and pro-virus political movements worldwide.
https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/u-s-international-covid-19-vaccine-donations-tracker/#delivery-mechanism
https://www.unicef.org/supply/covid-19-vaccine-market-dashboard

*Possibly many millions more if including doses purchased directly by COVAX using donor contributions, but I've had a hard time hashing out what exactly has been physically delivered to donee countries so far, and by what mechanism.

On the other hand, it seems I was wrong to argue that sharing mRNA vaccine patents and expertise with mid-income countries like India and Brazil wouldn't have much effect on the pandemic. Had that work begun in mid-2021, capacity for hundreds of millions more monthly doses of Comirnaty and the other one could have been projected to be online before the end of this year. Though to be fair, back in June I was hoping the pandemic would formally conclude by the end of 2022, obviating future vaccine demand. Maybe if we're lucky with Omicron it still will.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/10/22/science/developing-country-covid-vaccines.html