The United Kingdom Elections 2010

no is the short and sweet answer to that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

no is the short and sweet answer to that.

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Lol, perhaps the real questions are (cos I've heard nothing on them really so far):

What can we afford?
What can we afford to do without?

Shame we aren't voting on proposals to address either question - frankly I feel less wise about parties' intentions now than I did before the election was called. boo.

oops, a trifle embarrassing:

Hung parliament would be bad for Britain, says law firm where Nick Clegg's wife works

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...ife-works.html

DLA Piper, where Miriam González Durántez is a partner and head of international trade, said that legislation passed by coalitions is often “anodyne” because it has been “watered down” through “endless” negotiation.

The leading legal practice also said that British hung parliament could lead to “perverse” results as “extreme” parties force “bad” policies through in return for keeping a minority government in power.

Its intervention will come as an embarrassment to the Liberal Democrat leader, who is likely to be the biggest beneficiary if the general election ends in political stalemate.

Mr Clegg could be the “kingmaker” if neither Labour nor the Conservatives win an outright majority, playing a key role in the choice of the next Prime Minister as well as being able to demand that his party’s policies on electoral reform are made law before supporting any coalition.

But on the eve of the election DLA Piper, where the Lib Dem leader’s wife has worked since 2006, issued a press release on the serious problems that a hung parliament could create for Britain.

Paul Stone, a partner and public law expert at the firm, said: "A hallmark feature of a coalition government is the sheer time it can take to achieve consensus. From a legal point of view, this often results in laws being passed that are of high quality and well scrutinised, but unfortunately, are often watered down to the point of being anodyne as a result of endless rounds of review and compromise.

“The main risk to UK legislation is from the perverse results which can arise when the extreme agendas of minority fringe, or single issue parties, actually gain a disproportionate ability to influence policy in return for keeping a minority government in power. In such a situation the silent majority may well find itself being forced to bend to the will of the hard line minority; such situations can result not only in ‘bad’ laws but laws which are clearly outside the scope of what the broad majority of a voting population would be prepared to support.”

However he added that Italy’s “weak coalition governments” helped the economy in the 1970s, as the political “vacuum” allowed businesses to flourish without state interference.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

oops, a trifle embarrassing:

Hung parliament would be bad for Britain, says law firm where Nick Clegg's wife works

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My god! If even the law firm where Nick Clegg's wife works is against a hung parliament - we'd be crazy to even contemplate it :laugh4:


Whoever wins tomorrow, you can bet that in 2 years time, the rich will have got richer, and the poor will have got poorer.

first web election

also the first big-betting election:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...betting-record

Heard a blurb on NPR yesterday suggesting that England's currency was going to take a pounding if there was a hung parliament because "Europe wanted a clear decision." This was a follow-on line to a brief discussion of the Euro's getting hammered because of the currency market's assessment of the Greek debacle.

Sound right to you folks in Blighty?

Unlikely. Markets will have factored in uncertainty with the current value.

~:smoking:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Idaho

Whoever wins tomorrow, you can bet that in 2 years time, the rich will have got richer, and the poor will have got poorer.

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You'd think those poor sods would eventually run out of money.

How cliche.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Heard a blurb on NPR yesterday suggesting that England's currency was going to take a pounding if there was a hung parliament because "Europe wanted a clear decision." This was a follow-on line to a brief discussion of the Euro's getting hammered because of the currency market's assessment of the Greek debacle.

Sound right to you folks in Blighty?

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rory is correct, it is simple risk to them that they have had months to factor into their speculation, so given that all three parties promise to 'tackle' the deficit and given that the euro is being repeatedly pounded in its rear sterling is still quite a positive market for currency investment.

anyone else going to join the election sweep-stakes:

Quote:

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JAG (27/02/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2440038

Furunculus (29/04/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341

Quote:

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Furunculus (29/03/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341

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Idaho (16/04/10) - Narrow Labour win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471029

Rory (16/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471056

CountArch (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480544

Quote:

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CountArch (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476911

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Banquo's Ghost (29/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480078

Quote:

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Banquo's Ghost (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476913

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Louis (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480070

Quote:

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Louis (23/04/10) - Labour led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476925

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Tbilicus (05/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2482362

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Tbilicus (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476926

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Insane Apache (02/05/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2481378

Quote:

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Insane Apache (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476935

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Beskar (23/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2477082

Alh_P (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480111

Seamus Fermanagh (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480262

Subotan (30/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480536

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and have i missed anyone out?

p.s. you can can change your vote, but the original will also be retained..........

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Idaho

Whoever wins tomorrow, you can bet that in 2 years time, the rich will have got richer, and the poor will have got poorer.

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LOL

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Heard a blurb on NPR yesterday suggesting that England's currency was going to take a pounding if there was a hung parliament because "Europe wanted a clear decision." This was a follow-on line to a brief discussion of the Euro's getting hammered because of the currency market's assessment of the Greek debacle.

Sound right to you folks in Blighty?

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Possibly, a Hung Parliament would reduce the likelyhood of rapid reforms and cuts, but I think the markets will hold off to see in we do our usual thing of "pulling together" during a crisis.

So I'd give it a couple of weeks, possibly months, before panicking.

Final prediction from me:

Cons 325
Lab 200
Lib 90

Fractional Tory working majority given that Sinn Fein don't vote in Westminster.

anyone else going to join the election sweep-stakes:

Quote:

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JAG (27/02/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2440038

Furunculus (06/05/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2483692

Quote:

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Furunculus (29/04/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341
Furunculus (29/03/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341

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Idaho (16/04/10) - Narrow Labour win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471029

Rory (16/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471056

CountArch (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480544

Quote:

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CountArch (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476911

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Banquo's Ghost (29/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480078

Quote:

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Banquo's Ghost (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476913

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Louis (06/05/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2483786

Quote:

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Louis (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480070
Louis (23/04/10) - Labour led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476925

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Tbilicus (05/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2482362

Quote:

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Tbilicus (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476926

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Insane Apache (02/05/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2481378

Quote:

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Insane Apache (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476935

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Beskar (23/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2477082

Alh_P (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480111

Seamus Fermanagh (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480262

Subotan (30/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480536

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and have i missed anyone out?

p.s. you can can change your vote, but the original will also be retained..........

voting closes at 5:30pm today, make your changes asap.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Idaho

Whoever wins tomorrow, you can bet that in 2 years time, the rich will have got richer, and the poor will have got poorer.

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Britain still has the US and Singapore to overtake! Then it will be the industrial nation with the most uneven income distribution of all!

Income inequality in Britain is now back to the level of the Victorian age. Back, too, is the tendency to blame poverty on a moral deficit of the lower class. Dickens is turning in his grave. Gone too, is social mobility - now the lowest in Europe. The UK is a class society again.

Last year, the richest ten percent of Britons got 30% wealthier. Crisis? What crisis? The largest transfer of money from the poor to the rich since the Industrial Revolution. The bill will still have to be paid, the money has been borrowed by the state. This election is about who is going to pay for it the next few decades: the recipients of the handouts, i.e., Britain's wealthy and the international billionaire club in the City, or Britain's tax paying working classes?


I blame NuLab for not having done more in the past thirteen years for it's natural base: working class Britons. Miss Duffy indeed. But whereas she is 'that bigoted woman' to which Blair and Brown are deaf and blind, the Cons are always worse still. Their philosophy is based on thinking of this woman as morally deficit, inferior. Her little pocket change benefit fraud - barely a fraction of what the rich manage in tax evasions - the cause of Britain's financial woes. A woman not worthy of equal education, nor her children or grandchildren. A woman of another Britain, inferior Briton.

lol, i don't recognise that description of the tories.

the ten canary seats that will indicate in whose favour the vote surge is going:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...ion-night.html

BNP candidate batters Asians

I think what Griffin said is true, the media are trying to turn the BNP into the axis of evil. Which is pointless and unfair, since they are mostly disaffected Labour voters. Most people I know that support them are old women. :laugh4:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rhyfelwyr

BNP candidate batters Asians

I think what Griffin said is true, the media are trying to turn the BNP into the axis of evil. Which is pointless and unfair, since they are mostly disaffected Labour voters. Most people I know that support them are old women. :laugh4:

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Eh? What part of being a disaffected labour voter is it that means one is right to vote BNP???

If the BNP were given any power they would only extend the current misery their voters might experience to others, through some appalingly misguided policies that have little or nothing to do with the economic or political interests of the country. How on earth is that a good thing?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

Final prediction from me:

Cons 325
Lab 200
Lib 90

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Cons 285
Lab 255
LibDem 85
Furthermore, I also predict the remaining parties will take all remaining seats. :knight:

Thank you, Furunculus, for keeping track of our predicitions. Good fun.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rhyfelwyr

BNP candidate batters Asians

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Disgusting, both groups of men. Off to gaol with the lot of them.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Furthermore, I also predict the remaining parties will take all remaining seats. :knight:

Thank you, Furunculus, for keeping track of our predicitions. Good fun.

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A very astute observation! :p

My pleasure

just louis and I with final day predictions so far, anyone else going to join in with seat predictions for the big three?

anyone else going to join the election sweep-stakes:

Quote:

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JAG (27/02/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2440038

Furunculus (06/05/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2483692

Quote:

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Furunculus (29/04/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341
Furunculus (29/03/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341

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Idaho (16/04/10) - Narrow Labour win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471029

Rory (16/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471056

CountArch (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480544

Quote:

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CountArch (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476911

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Banquo's Ghost (29/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480078

Quote:

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Banquo's Ghost (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476913

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Louis (06/05/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2483786

Quote:

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Louis (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480070
Louis (23/04/10) - Labour led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476925

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Tbilicus (05/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2482362

Quote:

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Tbilicus (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476926

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Insane Apache (02/05/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2481378

Quote:

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Insane Apache (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476935

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Beskar (23/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2477082

Alh_P (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480111

Seamus Fermanagh (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480262

Subotan (30/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480536

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Furunculus = Cons 325 / Lab 200 / Lib 90
Louis = Cons 285 / Lab 255 / Lib 85

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and have i missed anyone out?

p.s. you can can change your vote, but the original will also be retained..........

[edit]
voting closes at 7:00pm today, make your changes asap.
[/edit]

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

I blame NuLab for not having done more in the past thirteen years for it's natural base: working class Britons. Miss Duffy indeed. But whereas she is 'that bigoted woman' to which Blair and Brown are deaf and blind, the Cons are always worse still. Their philosophy is based on thinking of this woman as morally deficit, inferior. Her little pocket change benefit fraud - barely a fraction of what the rich manage in tax evasions - the cause of Britain's financial woes. A woman not worthy of equal education, nor her children or grandchildren. A woman of another Britain, inferior Briton.

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This is complete rubbish, unmitigated hogwash upon which I am forced to pour utter scorn.

I am sorry Loius, but this reads like a Marxist describing the Upper Class, and the Upper Class have never had a Marxist understanding of their own position.

In any case, the working class effectively don't pay tax, especially as most of them are now on benefits.

Face it, social mobility improved under the "nasty" party, and now it has decreased under Labour.

As to my prediction, I think a Conservative majority of no more than 40, possibly more than 30. How the Left wing will break up, I don't know.

In less turgid news, the BBC has a link to politics-related sketches. I particularily appreciated The Minister for Cuts although neither black adder or Yes minister worked (probably a bit overloaded).

Enjoy:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/extra/collections/p007jyx1

a list of all the major newspapers and who they are backing, including who they backed last time where that has changed:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...election0605am

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Louis VI the Fat

Disgusting, both groups of men. Off to gaol with the lot of them.

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How so? The Asian guy spat in his face so the BNP guy battered him. Good for him I say, a politician from any other party would no doubt have taken the 'brave and noble' option rofl.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by alh_p

Eh? What part of being a disaffected labour voter is it that means one is right to vote BNP???

If the BNP were given any power they would only extend the current misery their voters might experience to others, through some appalingly misguided policies that have little or nothing to do with the economic or political interests of the country. How on earth is that a good thing?

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People want the BNP to be the axis of evil, so they ignore everything to the contrary and demonise BNP supporters so they can make it so in their head. The fact is, the majority of BNP supporters are not the skinhead thugs you want them to be, just ordinary working class folk who don't know muhc about politics and feel cheated by their traditional party of choice.

Do I like the BNP? No. Do I sympathise with the BNP's policies? No. Do I sympathise with the average BNP voter? Yes.

Prescott anyone? How many times did that obese moron lash out without it being made political?

If someone in th BNP farted whilst facing East that'd make the news as another attack on Islam...

~:smoking:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rhyfelwyr

How so? The Asian guy spat in his face so the BNP guy battered him. Good for him I say, a politician from any other party would no doubt have taken the 'brave and noble' option rofl.



People want the BNP to be the axis of evil, so they ignore everything to the contrary and demonise BNP supporters so they can make it so in their head. The fact is, the majority of BNP supporters are not the skinhead thugs you want them to be, just ordinary working class folk who don't know muhc about politics and feel cheated by their traditional party of choice.

Do I like the BNP? No. Do I sympathise with the BNP's policies? No. Do I sympathise with the average BNP voter? Yes.

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agreed. totally.

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any more seat predictions?

Well it seems most people my age still view the Tory party as the "nasty party". I've also spoken to a lot of people today who decided to put an X next to their local Labour candidate. Apparently Brown should be void of all blame in regards to our current financial state. Apparently Labour couldn't of avoided doubling the national debt, it was out of their hands.:rolleyes:

I don't think it's so much we need a Conservative government, I just feel that after 13 years Labour are completely detached from the electorate.

It will be interesting to see the exit polls around 10ish. I'll post them here for those not in the UK and those who don't want to stay up all night watching the results come in. They generally give us an idea which party has one the most seats and shouldn't be to far outside the end total for number of seats won.

Imagine having two parents. One is always buying toys for the children, fancy foods and days out. The other one doesn't, saying that there isn't the money and they've got to cut back to pay off the credit card debts, and the underpayments on the Mortgage.

The children love the first parent for all the nice gifts and a wonderful time. The second parent is hated as being stingy and a kill joy.

Never is the lack of money consciously pinned on the actions of the first...

~:smoking:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rhyfelwyr

People want the BNP to be the axis of evil, so they ignore everything to the contrary and demonise BNP supporters so they can make it so in their head. The fact is, the majority of BNP supporters are not the skinhead thugs you want them to be, just ordinary working class folk who don't know muhc about politics and feel cheated by their traditional party of choice.

Do I like the BNP? No. Do I sympathise with the BNP's policies? No. Do I sympathise with the average BNP voter? Yes.

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Yes, and the majority of Nazis have never killed a Jew with their own hands either.

Nazi thugs they are, the BNP. I, for one, will never ever forgive the BNP / Eriksen for their saying that ´women are like gongs - they need to be struck regularly':

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Eriksen

Women enjoy sex, so rape cannot be such a terrible physical ordeal…To suggest that rape, when conducted without violence, is a serious crime is like suggesting force-feeding a woman chocolate cake is a heinous offence.

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and you wonder why, despite being utterly repellent thugs, people still continue to vote for them..............?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rhyfelwyr

People want the BNP to be the axis of evil, so they ignore everything to the contrary and demonise BNP supporters so they can make it so in their head. The fact is, the majority of BNP supporters are not the skinhead thugs you want them to be, just ordinary working class folk who don't know muhc about politics and feel cheated by their traditional party of choice.

Do I like the BNP? No. Do I sympathise with the BNP's policies? No. Do I sympathise with the average BNP voter? Yes.

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Right, so BNP supporters in effect don't know better -i'd agree with that, and extend it to the majority of the electorate (especially as we've not really seen any proposals for dealing with the deficit).

I'm under no illusion that there are misguided people who support the most heinous of proposals without being outright evil, but that is what the whole of politics is about to me: the fight for the minds of voters. For the BNP, that battle is won by convincing people that they are poor because of foreigners and would ergo be better off without them around.

My Grandmother will not vote Tory due to what Churchill did to the Miners...

I imagine that most BNP voters are not aware of this statement, rather like Tory / labour voters were not implicitly backing the MPs expenses.

~:smoking:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Furunculus

and you wonder why, despite being utterly repellent thugs, people still continue to vote for them..............?

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As a matter of fact, I do wonder, yes.


Here you go: a record haul of home-made chemicals for terrorist attacks, not from the IRA or Pakistanis, but the BNP:

Quote:

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Chemicals Find: Two In Court
TWO Pendle men have appeared before Pennine magistrates accused of having "a master plan" after what is believed to be a record haul of chemicals used in making home-made bombs was found in Colne.
Robert Cottage (49), of Talbot Street, Colne, and David Bolus Jackson (62), of Trent Road, Nelson, made separate appearances before the court charged with being in possession of an explosive substance for an unlawful purpose.

Cottage is an ex-BNP member who stood as a candidate in the Pendle Council elections in May.

Mrs Christiana Buchanan, who appeared for the prosecution in Jackson's case, alleged the pair had "some kind of masterplan".
She said a search of Jackson's home had uncovered rocket launchers, chemicals, BNP literature and a nuclear biological suit.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by rory_20_uk

My Grandmother will not vote Tory due to what Churchill did to the Miners...

I imagine that most BNP voters are not aware of this statement, rather like Tory / labour voters were not implicitly backing the MPs expenses.

~:smoking:

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You wouldn't seriously compare advocting mass rape of British women with an expenses scandal?

Actually, the more I read about it, the more I wish we had a true equivalent to the BNP here in the USA. I mean, think about it, Pretty much ALL of the potentially dangerous right-wing nutters in one group where the police can infiltrate and stay ahead of them easily. Now THAT is efficient.

I am comparing ignorance to events.

~:smoking:

will labour fall foul of the golden rule of electoral polling:

http://www4.politicalbetting.com/ind...ive-the-night/

i.e. whenever polls have been tested against real election results it’s been the survey with Labour in the least favourable position that has been the most accurate.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Actually, the more I read about it, the more I wish we had a true equivalent to the BNP here in the USA. I mean, think about it, Pretty much ALL of the potentially dangerous right-wing nutters in one group where the police can infiltrate and stay ahead of them easily. Now THAT is efficient.

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I thought you had one. The Republican party.

So what we looking at? No clear cut majority and a coalition government?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tibilicus

Well it seems most people my age still view the Tory party as the "nasty party". I've also spoken to a lot of people today who decided to put an X next to their local Labour candidate. Apparently Brown should be void of all blame in regards to our current financial state. Apparently Labour couldn't of avoided doubling the national debt, it was out of their hands.:rolleyes:

I don't think it's so much we need a Conservative government, I just feel that after 13 years Labour are completely detached from the electorate.

It will be interesting to see the exit polls around 10ish. I'll post them here for those not in the UK and those who don't want to stay up all night watching the results come in. They generally give us an idea which party has one the most seats and shouldn't be to far outside the end total for number of seats won.

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You know, this is mostly my view as well. I am centre-of-right but I don't especially like the current Conservative party, I could certainyl stomach some Liberal politics if someone other than Clegg was in charge. Labour just NEEDS to go.

Funny that. My grandma wouldn't vote tory because she hated Churchill for breaking the general stroke. Incredible to me as a child and incomprehensible as an adult.

More importantly: Who's best to lead Britain through WW III?

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/

Shades of '29.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politi...10/8666128.stm

Exit poll people. I will state before I comment that this wont be 100% accurate and could theoretically be some way of the actual result.

Still, if this poll is roughly accurate in terms of the results we'll get a couple of hours from now, remarkable. The Lib Dems loosing 3 seats?! Also Cameron being shot by 19 could work in his favour. I could see him gaining support from minor parties to push his way into a tiny working majority. Also I have a feeling the exit poll wont take into account the amount of money the Tories have invested in marginal battleground seats, which is a lot..

Just came home after helping the Lib Dems for 6 hours. Based on the statistics (mainly from canvassing figures) I've seen and the people I have talked to, it would appear that Liberal MP Paul Burstow will retain the seat of Sutton and Cheam, albeit with only a small number of votes above Conservative challenger, Philippa Stroud (featured recently in the Observer).

Sunderland will declare soon... can't wait for the results. My first election night, how exciting! :balloon2:

Edit: Labour holds Sunderland South with 11k majority! w00t! Not that the Tories are gonna win that seat anyway... a big swing to Conservatives though, if this is replicated in the marginals...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/

I'll make one more post tonight before we get a result in the morning.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politi...10/8666338.stm

Appalling. Nothing else needs to be said. I don't know why you would turn up at 10 to vote anyway but still, more could of been done and polling stations running out of ballot papers is just a joke.

The exit poll is massively underestimating Lib Dem's imo, they will gain some 20+ more seats I think. Anyway, I was very much worried b4 I saw the official exit poll as I saw rumors of it saying an overall Tory majority - very glad it didn't. Everything is up in the air, EVERYTHING to play for still. This is the most exciting election I have ever known, loving it. especially as the anti Tory parties could still, possibly, come together.

BBCA says the Lib Dems are taking a bad hit. Shows you can't trust poles much.

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Originally Posted by Vladimir

BBCA says the Lib Dems are taking a bad hit. Shows you can't trust poles much.

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Isn't that the BNP position? :wink:

More seriously, I think the first three results show that there may well be a lot of tactical voting. Wierd swings, for example.

The exit poll also doesn't include postal voting, which looks to be significant this time.

well, we're about to find out who was closer to the end result between JAG and myself, all to play for....................

First big shock: Peter Robinson, First Minister in Northern Ireland, has lost his Westminster seat to the cross-community Alliance party - suffering a 22% swing. Nice to see that corruption gets punished.

Oh wow, that's absolutely astounding. Peter Robinson has been kicked out, and not just that, but he's been kicked out by Alliance!!!!!

Well I'm not quite in bed yet so thought I would just comment on the sort of results we might see. This election really does seem anyone's game. The Alliance Party just took a seat from the DUP in what was essentially a Unionist stronghold. It seems anything can happen.

Also Greens look likely to gain their first MP. We could still yet see the emergence of a strong block of minor parties, which again throws everything wide open.

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Originally Posted by Banquo's Ghost

First big shock: Peter Robinson, First Minister in Northern Ireland, has lost his Westminster seat to the cross-community Alliance party - suffering a 22% swing. Nice to see that corruption gets punished.

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Yes, Cross-community MP's in Northern Ireland should be a good thing.

No one has mentioned the dodgy polly yet though!

Seeming I can't be bothered to look it up, can anyone care to tell me what the Alliance Party actually stands for when it comes the unionism/nationalism. Being cross-community are they essentially of the belief that the current power sharing deal which incorporates Westminster, Dublin and Stormont is the ideal set up?

OK, officially starting to get worried. First proper marginal big swing to Tories and they took it. Hmmm.

But first big Con / Lib marginal, LIBS HOLD! WOOT!

.. Yes a Labour member whooping a Lib Dem hold, with a Tory to Lib dem of 1.1%!

Come on! That off sets the suprise result vs Lab in Kingswood.

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Originally Posted by JAG

But first big Con / Lib marginal, LIBS HOLD! WOOT!

.. Yes a Labour member whooping a Lib Dem hold, with a Tory to Lib dem of 1.1%!

Come on! That off sets the suprise result vs Lab in Kingswood.

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Indeed, but there have been fairly large number of 9%+ swings to the Tories, which would give them a majority.

But if you look at those swings - all the big swings were in solid, solid Lab seats, the only seat in the North West which was up for grabs a 4.8% swing to Con. It might be that tactical voting and the marginal campaign by Lab might actually be making the difference. Interesting times.

Oh I agree. It's even more unpredictable than predicted. :beam:

The great imponderable at the moment is how the Liberals perform in their Lib-Con marginals. Torbay was a good win for them, indicating that the South West might stay gold, where the Conservatives needed it to go back blue.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JAG

The exit poll is massively underestimating Lib Dem's imo, they will gain some 20+ more seats I think. Anyway, I was very much worried b4 I saw the official exit poll as I saw rumors of it saying an overall Tory majority - very glad it didn't. Everything is up in the air, EVERYTHING to play for still. This is the most exciting election I have ever known, loving it. especially as the anti Tory parties could still, possibly, come together.

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Nice to see you 'round these here parts t'owld lad ......and your team stayed up (again) :sweatdrop:

:)

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Originally Posted by InsaneApache

Nice to see you 'round these here parts t'owld lad ......and your team stayed up (again) :sweatdrop:

:)

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Yeah, just about - we would have been in the right dog's do do if we went down financially wise.

I am getting more worried, but did we just hold Durham against the Lib Dems?! If so, that is one hell of a hold...

Yes, Labour held Durham. Big blow to the Lib Dems. Looks like their surge has genuinely disappeared.

Ah geeze - having just seen what Brown has said, my worried feeling is starting to churn into sickened realisation that maybe we are not gonna get through this.

I think that's Brown finally accepting that he won't be Prime Minister past tomorrow, even if there's a Lib-Lab pact.

The Tories aren't doing very well in London marginals though. The Liberals failed massively to take their key target of Guildford, which is telling.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tibilicus

Also Greens look likely to gain their first MP. We could still yet see the emergence of a strong block of minor parties, which again throws everything wide open.

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Yeah, there is a lot of campaigning up here in Lancaster, it is a real possibility of them getting a seat here.

My seat of Brentford - in South West London - is going to be super tight, super duper tight based on the swings on the marginals between Con and Lab. I think Con need a 5% swing, gonna be touch and go.

Holding onto Tooting gives me hope though. This is the most bizzare night, some seats with huge swings, most of the marginals not, but varient swings in the marginals too. Amazing. Call this at your peril.

Unbelievable we hold Geldling too with a swing of just 2.9% to the Tories?! Now we hold Exeter, not one of the prorities but one the Con's wanted. Maybe I am wrong to be pessimistic, after all we are picking up seats in Scotland and Wales.

There's a serious constitutional issue looming too. If the Tories form a minority government, it looks like it will be with almost no seats in Scotland or Wales. Essentially, a minority English government will be cutting massive public spending in parts of the UK that have decisively rejected that party. There's actually a swing TO Labour in Scotland at the moment. :shocked:

It is a little worrying, no doubt.

You know what though, the Nationalists are not doing well, so maybe that blunts some of that problem, I dunno though.

This whole election is crazy - what the hell has happened to the Lib dem vote? Seriously, what the hell has happened?

Having just said that, the Tories have just taken two Welsh seats! Montgomeryshire by a 13% swing (albeit from the eejit Lembit Opik).

The Lib Dem vote appears to have completely evaporated. That makes it much more difficult for Labour to try and form a coalition, because their partners won't have any sort of mandate, even in just popular vote.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Banquo's Ghost

Having just said that, the Tories have just taken two Welsh seats! Montgomeryshire by a 13% swing (albeit from the eejit Lembit Opik).

The Lib Dem vote appears to have completely evaporated. That makes it much more difficult for Labour to try and form a coalition, because their partners won't have any sort of mandate, even in just popular vote.

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Agreed. I am cheering on the Lib Dems here and they are seriously lettign me down. :(

Needed them to take some seats from the Tories and hold their marginals, let alone give them 13% swings!!! Blimey, I have no idea what has happened to the Lib Dem vote, GAH!!!!!!!!!!

Crazyness, Labour are holding onto every single marginal which isn't in the South and hasn't been super duper money'ed out by the Tories. It might be the Lib dems collapse which lets the Tories in.

Now I'm really confused. Lib Dems held Huhne's seat which was a absolute priority for the Tories as he only had a 500 majority. And they gained Eastbourne.

Yet they lose Tory target seat number 140+ on a 9% swing.... crazy. Maybe this is the ultimate showing of all politics being local.

I think it is clear though, in the North of England, Scotland, most of Wales and in some parts of the South - in the Lab / Con marginals the Lab vote is holding up and the Tories are not taking the seats. CRAZY!

What a thrilling night!


Alas, it is off to bed for Louis. Am already looking forward to see what surprises lie in store tomorrow morning!

If this turns out be to as bad as Im thinking it could turn out for Lib Dems, I will just hope for a Lib Dem/Labour coalition to pass through the voting reforms it seems Britain needs. Seriously, Im getting sick of seeing in America (and now possibly Britain) the two major parties saying that since the broken system rigged in their favor has turned out in their favor that the public has spoken that the system does not need to be reformed.

Where Labour had the money to fight the marginals the swing has been vastly inferior to the swing in the other marginals. For instance we just lost Carlise on a swing of 7.7%, probably because we didn't put the money in like we did in Tooting for instance where the swing was around 3% etc.

Crazy.

Is anyone else following this interactive map?