I meant between the choices you presented.
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And, to be clear, I'm not reading Dolby as the sk.
I'm just working from that hypothesis currently.
To unpack that a bit...
Dolby and Borg are the obvious pairing. They've been buddying hard for all to see.
HK and Dolby are antagonists. They've been slapping each other about.
HK and Borg have not been anything notable that I can recall, and so appear less likely to be buddies than D/B and more likely than H/D, based solely on surface appearances.
But isn't that exactly where the real buddies are more likely to end up in this situation, neither wanting to make the connection too obvious nor pushing each other too hard towards the firing line?
This is why my hypothesis has Dolby as the sk, at least until I've gotten into the reading.
Does that make sense?
What motive would Dolby and Borg possibly have had to appear so buddy-buddy, other than just being buddy-buddy because they're just Wolves.
I detest WIFOM on principle.
Why is it WIFOM to think D/B's buddying is less likely from actual buddies than from non-buddies, but not the reverse?
Another answer is that from each of their perspectives (regardless of which is scum and which is sk), the relationship was working for them.
It might very well have led to suspicion about why the other was playing along, but so long as it was helping their own cause there would seem little reason to disturb things.
Something to note here, although it should maybe have been obvious and I'm just having a slow morning for only realising it now: I think the Wolves are going to want to push for the SK to be lynched here.
And I've been thinking about how weird it is for us to be at LYLO. The only think that makes sense for why we need to chop scum is that the SK has a delayed kill, and has already chosen to target a Townie for the night. Therefore, even if we chop the SK the could would still be successful and come night, we'd lose 2 townies, putting us at parity with the Wolves.
Given that we are losing a Townie regardless, if we chop a Wolf, we still lose two townies, but then the distribution is 2:1:1 Town:Scum:SK for the last day.
Therefore, we as Town don't really have a choice but to treat the SK as Town today, and SK, whoever you are, if you want a chance at the win, you'll either have to get a Townie mischopped today (quickest route to victory), or take your chances with us today and help get a Wolf chopped, so you can get another chance at fooling Town in the next day phase.
This is why I decided to just not even think about it, despite such speculation being one of the game's great pleasures.
Let's see if we can find some sort of consensus path forward here:
Do we agree that Borg is the most likely scum bud in both an HK and Dolby world? I still have reservations about chopping there because of the SK potential, but I also think HK has the greatest potential to be actually be the SK. Borg's comment explaining that he was thankful for the Panda and Nanook kills gives me serious pause, though.
@Dolby @hollowkatt @BorgPicard
Suggest you all claim sk asap.
Least convincing gets chopped.
:verycool:
Rereading the first 200 posts has not done much to support my hypothesis.
Borg/Tim being buddies is very plausible.
HK/Tim is less so, but I could still see it.
Borg/HK/Tim though? If so, I have no idea what the hell they were trying to do there.
I suppose hk could have started running interference after seeing Borg's buddying with Tim as problematic.
Bit of a stretch, though.
although hk then moving quite quickly from borg to pzelda would seem to support that, given how borg was picking up votes
Okay Vro is of the top of my list, now you are on Top Winston. Me and Tim being a team is the furthest thing from the truth possible. There is no way to read that is any universe anyone here lives in. I am in fact beyond insulted you would suggest such a thing as me being on a team with that scummy scumbo Tim. Also I do get why people were thinking I am teamed with Dolby, but that was at first in jest, then cause I was suspicious of Tim and now I won't vote them for a completely different reason.
Winston is now 100% mafia man with a likely Vro and a possible HK.
How are Vroe and I more scummy than hk and Dolby here, though, LA?
Also, setting aside the hyperbole, why is it so ridiculous to think you and Tim possible buddies?
I mean, it's not like there's many other options available.
The more I think about that cop role, the more I sympathise with pzelda.
The anxiety and paranoia inherent to that role would have driven me crazy.
I think I have to do this here, I know who the SK is and it is one of HK/Dolby. If laurentus and Csargo want me to tell them I will. I didn't want to reveal in case of mafia role blocker, but I have major doubts if they have one, in fact since I haven't been roleblocked after all my claims, then I can be safe in assuming they don't have one. I also know one of them didn't kill pzelda last night, but still might be mafia. That is why I am pushing so hard on Winston and Vro, since I know at least one of them is mafia. Winston if you really are town, then I now know the mafia. If you are mafia, then tonight I will know who is mafia. If Csargo and laurentus want me to hardclaim then I will, but until then I give you this info to act upon.
:laugh4:
Is it just because I know it's fake that this seems really fake to me?
Paranoia: but vroe...
Sanity: cease your bullshit!
Did... did Borg just out himself, p much?
Argon, you know I'm never buying that claim.
You also still haven't told me what you think of the Vro derp.
Also, sure, whatever, go ahead and hard claim, lol. We're at LYLO, we have bigger things to worry about than the scum killing a PR at night.
This really is a very beautifully poised situation.
Thanks, Monty. I knew I could count on you. :bow:
Lol, did HK just out as well?
you have two bad posts today. The first bad post is the one where you tell everyone to take what I'm saying with a massive dose of salt.
I said yesterday when people started floating theories that I'm bad (mafia or SK didn't matter) that yesterday was 100% the right day to chop me.
YOU yourself said "no HK, you are town and you are stuck here" and with extremely little analysis or thought you shift that read 180 degrees into "HK isn't blindly trusting me therefore he is a bad guy".
That's not how town should play lylo here. If anything you, as town, should be thankful that I'm taking my time and talking through possibilities and how I'm reading the thread so that we can all get on the same page, right?
Just because I'm saying of the semi-clears you could still be a wolf doesn't mean I'm wolfing here, it means I'm trying to ensure that the people we have as "cleared" are actually cleared.
Your second bad post is where you recap where every one wants to kill. Dolby has put me on his list of bad guys as well, and has for at least one phase, so for you to say he's not offering me up is wrong.
Finally, your post towards winston, saying "the more you talk the more I'm itching to policy you" stifles discussion, eliminates a voice from your consideration and for what? Nothing that I can see from you points towards Winston being a wolf or the SK here.
Talking about policy, even as a joke, in lylo is something town should never ever do.
Okay I am a tracker. Hard claim.
I tracked Tim n1, and he was the killer, but since a certain someone killed them that hot me nowhere.
I tracked myself n2 through time and space aka roleblocked. I targeted nanook
I tracked Dolby n3 and I learned his dark secret that he can somehow visit multiple people.
I tracked HK, got no movement.
This leads me to the conclusion that there is a garenteed mafia among Vro and Winston.
This can be made simpler if Winston votes me and then town can choose whether to face one mafia or one sk. If Winston votes me we can safely ignore them and maybe vote out Dolby leaving us with HK or Vro as possible mafia with laurentus or Csargo casting the deciding vote.
with every post about teams today you're widening the potential poe and you're apparently living in a world now where I'm never town, even after yesterday you saying "hk you are town and you're not dying today".
What changed, why, and where's your work showing it?
What is your POE right now? You've mentioned pretty much everyone that isn't you, csargo, and vro as possible bad guys. So dolby, winston, myself, borg right?
I'd say a poe of winston, dolby, borg isn't bad at all. That's functionally the poe I started the day with. Your posts thus far are making me question you, and if I question you likely I swap you and winston and see how that feels.
it's 4-2-1 today. For town that means lylo because if we chop town today and wolves kill town tonight it's 2-2-1 and mafia have reached parity with town and we lose.
That's irrespective of what the SK does. If the SK hits a wolf then awesome, it's 2-1-1 and we still might lose to a draw vote and NK.
For us to win we must kill a wolf today and the more you talk about options and expanding the POE the less I think you're town
hk and borg feel like scum trying to catch up with a situation that's going south for them
and it's a valiant effort
just not very believable
And why focus on Laurentus right now, when Borg's just made that claim?
Feeling more positive about my Dolby hypothesis now, L?
You... realise that reads changing are a thing, don't you? I was also SRing Csargo until we scanned him and found he was inno. That, coupled with everything I outlined in my first post, let me put you in my PoE - again, in my very first post. To claim lack of progression is a horrifyingly bad take from you.
As to your second paragraph, I have seen it time and time again that when scum gets cornered, they latch onto the unlikeliest of worlds in order to try and get the heat off them, and with you being in my PoE, your tinfoiling of me came across as exactly that.
As to your Dolby point, do you think I'm swayed by him offering you up at some point in the past? I asked him how my Winston and Vro reads could be wrong, and he couldn't answer at that point. Instead he said he was not going to try and argue against my Winston read and Vro looked really towny, too. So just by process of elimination, since he needs to remove one of them from the town world in order take their place in it, I took his "but Vro looks so towny, ugh" as a sign that he was reluctantly choosing to question Vro's alignment there. I also don't have perfect memory of everyone and who they've scum read at all points in the game.
And then on to the Winston one, I was getting agitated by his tin-foily nonsense for the same reason I got agitated by your tin-foily nonsense.
I don't not buy this.
Ok, we have today the following alive people:
hk
borg
winston
csargo
laurentus
vro
dolby
csargo is unimpeachable as town via pzelda and the monty N4 writeup yeah?
So that leaves us with the following
hk
borg
winston
laurentus
vro
dolby
THERE ARE 3 BAD GUYS IN THAT GROUP OF 6
We have literally a 50/50 shot of picking a name at random and hitting a bad guy. We need to hit a wolf today so the math is somewhat different and I'm bad at probabilities but my point is this: I know I am town, so removing myself from the pool means that in the set of {borg, winston, laurentus, vro, dolby} there are three bad guys.
IF laurentus is town and correctly clears vro via the derp the right and proper POE is winston, dolby, borg.
That's what my post earlier was saying and that's apparently something Laurentus takes umbrage with?
I wanted feedback on that post, not "hk has to be a bad guy for making it" feedback either lol
If Borg is telling the truth here and he is town tracker (you'll notice he didn't claim town tracker tho just tracker) then one of laurentus/vro MUST be a wolf.
Okay, so one thing that is a bit awkward which I'm not seeing you address here yet: why the hell would I openly acknowledge that I paired up with Zelda and helped him scan Csargo? Because that makes Csargo a 100% scan, and the last thing I want as a Wolf is any confirmed townies at LYLO.
re dolby: no, I am pointing out where you're wrong. idgaf if you're swayed or not, you asked me why I posted what I did, I'm answering. One of the reasons I sus you is b/c you're wrong on things, or leaving things out.
And yeah, I'm claiming lack of progression on you.
I do realize changing reads are a thing, but like this shift from "you're not dying today" to "you must die today" is jarring, bad, and I told you so yesterday
I was topping peoples SK list yesterday, with at least one "hk is a wolf" out there. Objectively yesterday was 100% the correct day to resolve me if you're going to chop me. NOW you have to actually chop a wolf IF you are town and your push here smells a lot like "wolves need one mischop to win and HK is it"
would you be so kind as to give some feedback on 1904 please?
Thinking about the whole set-up, I don't believe Monty put a town tracker in it, and I suspect that the Infiltrator and the Wolf were the roles that needed pzelda's check to be backed up by another player to get a guilty result.
What the boss bionic can do, I have no idea, and feel disinclined to speculate.
Winstons's town, nice.
that's a decent point. the answer would be who's listening to csargo?
but sure, lets go back to the world at the beginning of the day
csargo is clear
you clear vro
pzelda clears you
that means 3 bad guys in {hk, dolby, winston, borg} right?
one of those will be town, one will be SK, the other two will be wolf.
All we have to do then is hit the 50/50 on the wolf, right?
For me the best shot there is dolby.