god you have brightened my dayQuote:
Originally Posted by dyachei
i just want to burn vanta and knights now
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god you have brightened my dayQuote:
Originally Posted by dyachei
i just want to burn vanta and knights now
i think wisdom, possibly sunbae, and dolby look worse?Quote:
Originally Posted by Gemma
yeah ngl my jaw dropped irl when i saw that happen i was so upset, mostly with myselfQuote:
Originally Posted by Maple
terrible read boss nglQuote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
Dya I love you rn.
(Temp here on lunch, was gonna make a pissy post about Ladd going over and proving me right about him but tbh I'm not even angry anymore. Though still boo I was right.)
Re: Role
I was able to promote a player which I don't entirely know exactly what would do but I was promised would be positive.
I tried on Stett N1 obviously. I expected they'd get something back if it worked(Which is why I said they should have proof of my actions.) but I used a shot and they apparently weren't told anything. I'd be very curious to find out what happened after end of game.
I was, however, inverted last night. Which has left me very curious because my inversion is definitely not a reverse of my role or a strict upgrade. It's more like a side-grade?
Hm is it correct to have the inverter claim today or forever hold their peace?
im not sure yet
I'm revoking masons with Monty btw
I don't think my vote ever moves off of Wisdom today tbh
I wanna have time to reread Benneh before I settle. I admit I managed to convince myself he was town yesterday which means I need to review how I was looking at things.
uh so what are the telephone cliffnotes on jan's dolby read?Quote:
Originally Posted by Maple
i see u and dya talking about them being w and while i havent read whatever happened while i was asleep before eod and also i admittedly havent read a lot of dolby's longer posts, last i checked dolby was solidly v and not a read i was concerned about reassessing on so unless something wild happened in those 8 pages or so that i havent read or theres some smoking gun i didnt read in their big posts i aint considering them aorn and i think we got bigger fish to fry
when were u ever masons with monty???Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolby
yesterday, though I said it and offered it to him mainly because I felt it would help him become more in tune with the thread and help me read with him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gemma
TALLY #1079
Gemma 4 (Ladd, sheepsaysmeep, Wisdom, insomnia)
Syn 4 (Didistetter, ColonelLubriderm, Newcomb, dyachei)
Theknightsofneeee 3 (EnderWiggin, Raskolnikov, Gemma)
EnderWiggin 1 (nebjiamn)
Sunbae 1 (Jan)
sheepsaysmeep 1 (Syn)
Raskolnikov 1 (grr)
Jan 1 (Theknightsofneeee)
ColonelLubriderm 1 (Vanta Black)
TALLY #1170
Raskolnikov 4 (grr, ColonelLubriderm, Jan, Montmorency)
Theknightsofneeee 4 (EnderWiggin, Raskolnikov, Gemma, Didistetter)
Gemma 4 (Ladd, sheepsaysmeep, Wisdom, insomnia)
Syn 2 (Newcomb, dyachei)
EnderWiggin 1 (nebjiamn)
sheepsaysmeep 1 (Syn)
Jan 1 (Theknightsofneeee)
ColonelLubriderm 1 (Vanta Black)
TALLY #1196
Syn 5 ( Newcomb, Gemma, Insomnia, Theknightsofneeee, Didistetter)
Raskolnikov 4 (grr, ColonelLubriderm, Jan, Maple)
Gemma 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Wisdom, insomnia)
sheepsaysmeep 3 (Syn, dyachei, Ladd)
Theknightsofneeee 2 (EnderWiggin, Raskolnikov)
EnderWiggin 1 (nebjiamn)
ColonelLubriderm 1 (Vanta Black)
TALLY FINAL
Syn 7 ( Newcomb, Gemma, Insomnia, Theknightsofneeee, Didistetter, Arctic, Maple)
Gemma 3 (sheepsaysmeep, Wisdom, Jan)
sheepsaysmeep 3 (Syn, dyachei, Ladd)
Raskolnikov 2 (grr, ColonelLubriderm )
Theknightsofneeee 2 (EnderWiggin, Raskolnikov)
EnderWiggin 1 (nebjiamn)
ColonelLubriderm 1 (Vanta Black)
I don't think there was more than 1 mafia operating EOD 1. Most of the dead players were AFK or lurking, including syn and neb, as well as Sunbae, Ender, Vanta, cobalt, and grr. From that presumption, Gemma's vote pattern looks very good for her - she kept the syn wagon alive at a key moment - although a m-Wisdom flip would lock her town for good. Also following from the presumption (and more so with ladd's town flip), knights' syn vote is not +EV, as he would have had no good options, although he reacted very quickly on the bus if scum. At any rate, I don't have any reason to POE him at this time.
My POE for today would have to be
sunbae
dolby
wisdom
although I can't offer a sound reason to go above Wisdom atm. m-Wisdom clears Gemma and probably Ender at this point, so it's a very desirable hit, if a hit. Vanta, like, ladd just asked me why he and ender would coordinate in chat to ask knights the same question simultaneously. He was right after all. So, the question goes, why would vanta and wisdom coordinate to vote ladd at the literal last minute when it was already 5-4 and Wisdom wasn't self-prezzing? Why not just one, or both a couple hours apart? Teams have certainly casually outed themselves before, but maybe we need a little more feedback before we decide it's what happened.
luhmaoQuote:
Originally Posted by Dolby
Dolby, I strongly disliked the pattern of cycling through wagons and reevaluating all of them. It did feel like a shell game designed to swamp a very important town PR. If Wisdom is indeed the scum of three, it's hard to credit you for it now. Other than that, cobalt had a rather poor D1. He only posted the first half of D1, but almost all of it is fluff directed at people who flipped or locked in the first round (Newcomb, stetter, sheep, etc.). I'm not sure what the best thing to do for you would be (but it's not wall-posting more ISOs).
So you were trying to pocket me? :verycool:Quote:
offered it to him mainly because I felt it would help him become more in tune with the thread and help me read with him.
Ladd legacy for meQuote:
Originally Posted by ladd
Me: cases ladd town, votes benneh
Thread: OVER IN NARNIA OVER THERE WHO KNOWS WHAT HES DOING
At some point I'm going to have to figure out what wins out between my positive feelings of Knights end of day one and my negative feelings of rereading the thread and seeing Kngihts constantly lumping me in with benneh yet shading me and boosting benneh whenever he gets the chance
Initial thought is this is way too defend-y for such a little comment from cobalt to be on a teammate. Like I feel it's more inclined to try and pocket wisdom than to push Cobalt off of a read or anything. I'm actually a bit confused why it got this response in the first place. Making a mental note. I suppose if Wisdom is wolf arsonist or w/e and the plan is to defend out of the gate maybe but it sounds sketchy to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
hey i specifically cleared you EOD 3 if it makes you feel better :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunbae
i'd say my bad about my ladd read, but honestly it was both my bad and his bad. >.<
nice shot on benneh dya, i was 100% gonna push him for his very tentative vote on ladd at the EOD only when it was likely to push him over.
blame vanta much less for their vote because they showed hesitancy to voting with me and picked a different wagon first.
glad i got there on jan, but i'm surprised that @Maple is alive ? did he give reasoning for not killing you?
my initial thought is that maybe jan got roleblocked and couldn't execute maple? (afaik thats how it works in TOS, if the jailer gets roleblocked they can't execute)
gonna read benneh for spew, probably a fairly good amount there, gonna read specifically for his reads on wisdom/maple/vanta/monty/enderwiggen as those are my most unsure atm
oh thats a cute post cause now i have to wonder if people knew you were a wolf day 1 arghQuote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
sunbae pushing benneh yesterday when benneh wasn't really on my radar at all is also probably extra clearing for him but I already had him as villa
but just in case anyone else didn't have him cleared yet, he's >> rand villager
sunbae could have been potentially distancing from benneh in a world where wisdom/maple/ladd are all villagers and sunbae knew the elim wouldn't really be close to hitting a wolf, and trying to set up for late game, but a) i don't believe that is the world and b) I think benneh felt way more willing to give sunbae shallow reads that don't feel like wolf bro's trying to make fleshed out reads on each other.
https://media.tenor.com/PF0BL5IWwjoA...ht-shotgun.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by theknightsofneeee
he wolf read me for like 2.5 out of 3 daysQuote:
Originally Posted by Gemma
and 90% of the read was 'knights is lacking'
i'm a strong man but i'm not strong enough to wolf read that lol
Bennehs day 1 posts about alive players. I'm making no commentary on them yet
About Wisdom:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
About Grrr
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
About Ender
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
i read this as super villagery at EOD especially when i was still in the middle of my crusade on ladd and it almost word for word described my read on ladd/why i was pushing himQuote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
but in retrospect it should have been kinda obvious that he was using me to springboard a vote/elim on ladd
bleh
According to the claim, Maple gifted Jan a 1x doc, Jan TRed Maple after discussion, Jan protected dya. It's not verifiable - maybe Mafia have only 1 kp left and rationally used it against the JK with KP - but a hit on both dya and Jan with dya getting protected with Maple's gift is also very plausible. Maybe Maple has just been running a fabulous gambit, but he's near-clear.Quote:
Originally Posted by theknightsofneeee
Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
another relatively plausible world isQuote:
Originally Posted by Montmorency
maple is wolf kp (there were multiple kills n2 and arctic wasn't able to kill maple n2)
n3 jan jailkeeps maple (this roleblocks and protects maple, but allows jan the ability to talk to maple at night, and decide to execute before SOD)
during n3 no wolf kp is shown except a kill on jan, and wolves roleblock jan to prevent him from executing maple (since he's wolf kp)
reads as super plausible to me
also maple being able to give items out to jan either during the day or at the start of the night phase feels super weird/counter intuitive to me, i would have to double check with maple's earlier claims and see if that is something that is consistent from the start of his claim or not, because that just feels fishy mechanically that he was able to prove himself to jan before he was jailed.
Nice one Dya! I hadn't even read EoD yet except for the flip so didn't know Ben was outted. Should have time after work to do some digging.
jan and i were ride or die after some discussion and analysis. Also, with ladd dying and it being pretty blatantly obvious that ben was more or less outed and in the worst case (wolves getting multiple kills + village having no KP left) our only shot at winning was attempting to get a good day today.Quote:
Originally Posted by theknightsofneeee
Fortunately, wolves only got 1 kill off and dya had another kill so it didn't go as bad as we feared.
Now, on a *mechanical* level, I should be treated as clear from now on. I hope it goes without saying how fuckin dumb it'd be for people to go for me after all that, especially given how good my PR evidently is and the fact that I am now a priority for the wolves - we got a doctor out of it, who knows what other goodies I can give out? Not to mention how s p e w e d clear I am here. If you think I'm a wolf at this point, you just gotta take the L and blame Jan in post.
As far as dolby goes, seemed paired with ben + the handling of wisdom + me + ladd yesterday and ending on ladd (with both wisdom's w equity and the fact that ladd was just straight up the worst kill of the three) + the blatant wolfsiding.
When compared to sunbae and insom, who aren't like *that* villagery in the grand scheme of things, the issue is that there are *several* slots that are varying degrees of just mindfuckingly wolfy or deranged in this game. We can debate the specifics later, and I *am* down to start with a lower effort wagon, but it was more or less ben>dolby>wisdom>knights=vanta=mont
w/ a side of ender
and the potential of there being perhaps 1 deeper wolf in the clears (most likely between sunbae or insom, but perhaps grr but again there's a gap between these peeps and the wolf reads)
I'll be fishing for a vigi shot tonight. Given the currently level of KP in a game of this size, i'm pretty certain that there's a vigi shot *somewhere* in my deck.
Yeah Ender is just town imo. Benneh used multiple people's sus on Ender as a way to try to direct greater sus towards him, and I've just feeling the villa energy from him since
Also irregardless of mech Maple just looks good from how Benneh treated her. I also do believe that Jan got the card and the card used used on Dya
kinda thinking that I was wrong to dismiss what ladd was saying about knights yesterday.
but w/e today is wisdom day
@Maple our slots have pretty much agreed on exactly nothing this game but I would appreciate if you heard me out, at least for one day. i am thinking you are town now and the best thing we can do is just kill wisdom. After that happens, if Wisdom flips red I should be able to get myself clear. I do kinda have marginal concerns about you still tbh (like you just not voting yesterday but I do get the sense that you weren't all there on ladd v at that point in time) but frankly it's w/e since I believe you gave Jan the card.
I assumed that everyone was going to fall in line and wisdom would *just go over* yesterday. I was AFK for eod, so I wasn't there for the shenanigans.
And in any case, if you *are* a villager, I am reading your posts and considering our options. It seems pretty possible that we go Wisdom today, but it would be irresponsible for any of us to lock into that now. There's definitely the possibility that we end up somewhere else in the PoE today.
@theknightsofneeee
i just don't view this as the case tbh (Maple being jailed wolf kp) and I can easily see Jan just not exeing Maple based off the flip. i was already feeling before the flip when Jan announced he was jailing maple that he probably wouldn't exe maple if he got a card tbh, but uh, Benneh just looks pretty unteammed with Maple, and if he is with Maple, Maple isn't KP. Which suggests either someone else got a doc off, maf vig is even night, or maple's doc card was real and was given to Jan.
Like look at this, I know that Benneh shifted his vote around to wisdom and ladd, but he kept on pushing this pretty consistently from mid-d2 onward. i think he probably ends up on Maple EOD2 if Rask doesn't get outted, and is pretty ungenerous to that slot. There's tons of other posts like this but I don't feel like really beating it in when I think the thread is going to get there anyway.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
Hey now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gemma
Prophetic. Or foreshadowing.Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
Incllined to vote there myself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolby
But if neeee hops on then I don't knooooooow
Oh, this is the outing post?Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
I read it before but I guess I'm missing some context.
If Benneh decided to sacrifice himself to make sure both Ladd and myself get yeeted is probably proof that an arsonist actually exists and will ignite to a victory.
What's the numbers now? 12 players, 2-3 wolves?
Let's run that, say 3 wolves
9v/3w
I get misyeeted
8v/3w
Ignition kills 2 + factional
5v/3w
Okay that's not an auto win but it's getting the team to f3 with 3 wolves.
Yeah that's not looking good for us.
Could be two wolves left tho. Could be no arsonist. Not sure why Benneh would make a move like that in that case.
Should probably work on developing some reads instead of whatever it is I've been doing.
I'm not gonna bother with Dolby's tunnel. He's likely town and won't look elsewhere before I'm flipped.
why did you vote laddQuote:
Originally Posted by Vanta Black
nice shat
my PoE doesn't change. benneh was part of it, and apparently the strat of "vote people you don't remember anything from" strat is OP for DAORG
how does one get inverted into giving out medic heals?
whatever manti is saying is simply dangerous to assume without knowing the setup. his "heal" is not confirmed in any way.
jan said he will execute him. if he changed his mind then he's throwing pretty hard
Maybe too big of a thing but @grr do you still keep notes of the vote history?
Vote: wisdom
gonna look into knights today
dyachei
grr
Gemma - only consider if knights is not w and if the following lunches are wrong
dolby
ender
Vantablack
these are prob my reads in the people that i've actually read posts from. i didn't analyse carefully so im waiting for opinions on which one is too high and for what reasons
we're likely killing wisdom today. i wish we don't flashwagon yet again. frankly im kinda upset with the outcome of things
i haven't read EoD either other than ladd just being flashwagonned, gonna do that at some point
the biggest question i have in my head rn is whether it's 4 or 5 wolves.
if the 3p had 2 night kills, then that seems a little KP heavy. so i'd lean towards 4, which would make 2 wolves
i feel like wisdom is the ideal lunch in either world, whether it's 2 or 3 wolves left.
idk if this is a terrible read, but as i said in a post i've made the other day attempting a lunch solve, i said benneh / sunbae has 1 but i doubt it has 2. i think that reason is a bit silly, but my thinking was that they both seemed way too non-influential and i feel like at least one would be more aggro in terms of doing things and the other would bus. but i guess just on a GAME TREATMENT level i feel like it doesn't smell of a sunbae / benneh w/w world, i can't really explain it other than gut. it's prob a silly read which is why i didn't lean to putting him in my reads, but i wouldn't like to lunch him today anyway
im just hard sold on a wisdom lunch for today, especially after last night's flashwagon
i guess if maple is real then he gives an explanation for tonight's kills, but he can't be confirmed because of it
3p / wolfvig / villa vig. n1 jan jails stett, likely blocked nightvig kp or factional
n2 stett dies, which makes sense if wolves already targeted her. factional / wolfvig is bop. 3p is ded
n3 dya supposedly gets healed and shot by factional / wolfvig. jan dies to wolfvig / factional. 3p ded
the problem scenarios that i mentioned earlier which can't confirm maple
maple can be vig. the absence of 1 kill here would be cuz he got blocked by jail. again, we have no confirmation of any villager receiving the "cards". that's why i said jan would've thrown if he chose not to exe maple regardless of what he said in the night chat. maybe he villa read him, but we have no way of reading what he types to jan, and if maple isn't playing in the same way with the thread as he does with jan, then /shrug
the wolf vig is not full, just even night or some form of 1 shot.
however, if dya is claiming full vig here then i guess wolves should have one as well.
Not full vig. Two shot instead of 1 shot. Everything else was trueQuote:
Originally Posted by insomnia
do you feel strongly about any names in my list to disagree with? or additions for the top ranks? in the gemma / grr tier, i mean
I don't disagree that Gemma and grr are just v. Think their approach makes no sense for a wolf and Ladd had a strong v read on grr iirc
if u ignore 3p it's 21 player game 75% of that is 16 so there should be 5 wolves total 3 alive
I just ~don't like Maple claiming lack clear on something where every single piece of evidence is something we have to trust she's telling the truth on.
Gives me some "Give me credit for my cool play/story" vibes.
Nyeh.
Gonna read Benneh spew and see where I end up now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by theknightsofneeee
This a good start lmao.Quote:
Originally Posted by ladd
I might be back to thinking Nee sus
Does a wolf over-explainy about a partner like this? Hmmmmmmmmmm.Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
I wanna say that's a tentative plus point for Wisdom and Dolbalt
Hmmmm.Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
Benneh is fixated on this Wisdom start.
Also kinda good for IH just because this feels more like TMI than trying to get people to townread a partner.Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
Oh yeah I'm just clearing Sunbae for Benneh jumping on the sus on me.
I don't see Benneh jumping on that if it was another wolf bringing it up.
I will not harp on about it cause self-defense is meh and wolves can do it so it means nothing.Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
But I do just wanna point everyone who thinks I'm sus at this post + how Benneh kept bringing me back up on D1 every few pages.
Anyway back to spew reading.
ftr monty repeating "we must yeet wisdom so gemma clear is lock clear" all through his iso like he's practicing voodoo gives me the creeps
Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
Eeepy.Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
This is probably confbias but it kinda feels like Benneh's reactions around the Maple stuff is ~eh on D2
This is a post of all time.Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
I'm not sure what I think about it just yet.
Benneh really doesn't want Wisdom to be spew cleared.Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
Yeah honestly this is just an example of Benneh pocketing Sunbae.Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolby
Bleh.Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
I'm starting to be back to wolfreading Dolby oops.
That really weird interaction here is just.. ~eh
It can't be both Dolby and Maple.
No way they start today with a hard bus when they just lost Benneh.
I know this is a read on how they read me but this direct counter-action to Benneh doing exactly what Gemma talked about re: Wolves treating me makes me feel just really good about the way they're reading the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gemma
Is it bad I read this as Benneh being salty about town people claiming PR when wagons form on them? Lmao.Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
Eh. Might be Maple is just town after all.
Still considering but either that or Benneh decided to bus early for it.
Hmmmmmm.
I don't really rate the D3 push because early on it looked like Maple was just ~gonna die.
But Benneh did try to put Maple on the table D2. Idk how seriously. Will think on this.
Eeeeeeh.Quote:
Originally Posted by nebjiamn
I really don't wanna go Wisdom now. I think that's probably my biggest takeaway rn.
it's a hunch but an ok hunch to have ig.Quote:
Originally Posted by EnderWiggin
anyways i might be a bit more pragmatic going forward. quite frankly 22p games are not my hometurf at all and my desire to know about everything whats going on is just failing me.
so ill just say: half dead villas called wisdom/ladd not pure. some dead villas had a specific SR on wisdom anyway (arctic comes to mind) ladd said wisdom probs wolf. I personally I also believe wisdom probably wolf.
also clearing CW etc. so
Vote: Wisdom
offchance this is wrong I personally feel we got pretty outplayed here (i think we kinda not doing so well anyway cuz we legit only got an LHF wolf and a wolf that literally outed so far) but most reasonable vote to me rn.
No Wisdom I dont have a vote history for d3 rn I didnt feel like they were helping anyone (posting relevant wagons seems more helpful?). It isnt that much work so maybe i'll just do it now anyway.
Vote: Dolby
Sorry for the rand friendo.
I think Wisdom/Gemma/Sunbae/Maaaaaybe Maple (And me ofc) look good off the spew.
Also Dya but tbh that's just a given at this point lel.
Dolby/Knights/Monty are probably the ones I feel worse about most.
And now I sleep. My 1 job of spew reading is done. =P
i have bad newsQuote:
Originally Posted by EnderWiggin
Idc if you scumread me now you're in my town books.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gemma
Suffer through it.
i think ben pushed ender a lot if they're partners. so i tend to think unalignedQuote:
Originally Posted by Gemma
i need a live player list
V
grr
ender
gemma
v lean
sunbae
mont
insom
vanta
POE
Dolby
knights
wisdom
If i'm wrong it's in my v leans and probably insom having a good game or mont
so here. Vote Histories:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Currently respecting ladds read on there but I would like people who TR dolby explain it to me, cuz i genuinely never got it except grasping a few people saying "posts good" @insomniaQuote:
Originally Posted by EnderWiggin
.Quote:
Originally Posted by insomnia